USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY currency pair abhi recently niche ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ke economic expectations aur current events ka nasha hai. U.S. Federal Reserve se ummeed hai ke wo apne agle meeting mein interest rates kam karega. Aise rate cut aam tor par economic activity ko barhane ke liye hota hai, jo shayad U.S. dollar ko investors ke liye kam appealing bana de. Dusri taraf, Bank of Japan (BOJ) se Friday ko interest rates mein koi tabdeeli ki umeed nahi hai. BOJ ki yeh stability Japanese yen ko U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein relatively strong ya steady rakh sakti hai. Isliye, U.S. rate cuts aur stable Japanese rates ka mix USD/JPY pair ki ongoing decline ko contribute kar sakta hai. Halanki overall bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair ke liye kuch dilchasp possibilities hain. Chahe U.S. dollar dusri currencies ke muqablay mein kamzor ho, yeh yen ke muqablay mein thoda rise bhi dekh sakta hai. Yeh unexpected scenario tab ho sakta hai jab market sentiment ya kuch unforeseen economic news influence kare. Crucial U.S. economic reports jaise Core Retail Sales aur Retail Sales data ko dekhna zaroori hai taake yeh samajh sakein ke yeh elements USD/JPY pair ko kaise affect kar rahe hain.
Technical nazariya se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair niche ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo ke pehle ke lows ko tod raha hai aur price pattern ko badal raha hai. Yeh ongoing decline yeh darshata hai ke market mein sellers ka control hai. Technical indicators aur moving averages yeh suggest karte hain ke yeh bearish trend barqarar reh sakta hai, kyunki yeh aam tor par pair ko sell karne ka indication dete hain. Weekly Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq 38.1% mark ke aas-paas support dikhayi deti hai. Iska matlab hai ke agar price aur niche girti hai, to yeh level support provide kar sakta hai, jahan buying interest bhi dekhne ko mil sakti hai aur trend reverse ho sakta hai.
Sellers ko price ko significantly niche le jaane mein mushkil ka samna hai. Agar 38.1% level ka support barkarar rehta hai, to 14.5% Fibonacci retracement level ki taraf rebound ka mauka ho sakta hai. Traders ko price movements ko 140.84 support level ke aas-paas dekhna chahiye buying aur selling opportunities ke liye, aur 141.55 resistance level ke aas-paas possible buying signals ke liye dekhna chahiye. Aakhir mein, technical outlook yeh darshata hai ke USD/JPY pair shayad nazdeeki dino mein apna bearish trend barqarar rakhe, lekin key support levels aur aane wale economic data iski future direction ko influence kar sakte hain.

Juma ke din, USD ke muqablay mein Yen ka spot price girawat ka shikar raha, jo ke iske recent losses ko aur barhata gaya. Yeh lagataar girawat khas tor par Middle East mein barhti hui geopolitical tensions ke dauran kaafi tawajjo ka markaz ban gayi hai, jo ke Yen ke liye kuch rahat faraham kar sakti hain. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq, Iran Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ke jawab mein. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY currency pair takriban 140.81 par trade kar raha tha.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Doosri taraf, US Dollar apne challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) se bara rate cut expect kar rahe hain. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, ab 50-basis point (bps) cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo pichlay haftay ke 11.8% se bohot zyada hai. Iske bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses wapas hasil kar liye hain. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko 6 bara currencies ke muqablay mein naapta hai, abhi bhi 101.00 ke aas paas stable hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting ki Summary of Opinions se pata chalta hai ke kai members ka yeh maanna hai ke economy aur prices mutawaqqa ke mutabiq progress kar rahe hain. BoJ ka medium-term mein "kam az kam 1%" ka neutral rate ka irada hai. Lekin BoJ ka hawkish stance zyada dair ka asar nahi daal payega. Global risk aversion policy-tightening cycle ko rok sakti hai. Saath hi, Japan ke equity markets mein BoJ ke accommodative policies ke withdrawal ke baad volatility ne rate hikes ke prospects ko bhi mutasir kiya hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance 143.06 ke aas paas nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 50-day EMA at 149.33 ka test kar sakta hai, jiske baad 150.50 par "throwback support turned resistance" aa sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, pair ko 140.00 ke aas paas support mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

US dollar ne Tuesday ke early trading mein Japanese yen ke muqablay mein modest recovery dekhi, aur pair just above ¥140 level par hold kar raha hai. Agar market higher push karne mein kamiyab hoti hai aur ¥142 barrier ko break karti hai, toh further gains ki potential ho sakti hai. Lekin, Wednesday ko aane wali Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki interest rate decision significant volatility la sakti hai. Traders is decision ko closely dekh rahe honge, jo ke Federal Reserve policy ke future direction ke guidance ke saath news conference ke baad aayega.
Friday ko Bank of Japan ke announcement ne uncertainty ko barha diya hai. Iska matlab hai ke market aane wale dinon mein zyada volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai, kyunki traders central bank ke actions aur statements ko consider karenge. Noise ke bawajood, buying opportunities ka potential abhi bhi maujood hai, khas kar ke jab pair key uptrend line ke paas trade kar raha hai. Agar dollar 140 level ke upar hold karta hai, toh yeh zyada buyers ko attract kar sakta hai jo breakout ki talash mein hain.

Dusri taraf, agar dollar-yen pair din ke end tak 139 yen level ke neeche break karta hai, toh yeh bada collapse ka signal ho sakta hai aur price ko 135 yen area tak push kar sakta hai. Is pair ki movement ka zyada tar global risk appetite aur Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan dono ke policy decisions par depend karega. Jabke Federal Reserve ke paas apne rates adjust karne ki room hai, Bank of Japan ko apne massive debt load ke bawajood tightening mein limits face karni pad rahi hai. Isliye, market ek major inflection point ke kareeb hai, jahan agle kuch din pair ke long-term direction ko determine karne mein crucial honge.

Jumay ke din, USD ke muqablay mein spot price ne apni girawat ko barqarar rakha, jo is haftay ke nuqsan ko aur barha raha tha. Yeh girawat mazeed tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain, jo ho sakta hai yen ke liye kuch support faraham karein. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran shayad Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ka badla lene ke liye. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY ka currency pair lagbhag 140.81 par trade kar raha tha. USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Dusri taraf, US Dollar apni challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab intezar kar rahe hain ke September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) ek bara rate cut karega. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo ek haftay pehle sirf 11.8% tha. Is ke bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses ko recover kar liya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein napta hai, 101.00 ke level par qaraar liya huwa hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting se aaye Summary of Opinions ke mutabiq, kai members ka kehna hai ke economy aur prices umeed ke mutabiq barh rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsaad hai ke medium term mein neutral rate "kam az kam 1%" ke qareeb rahe. Magar BoJ ke hawkish stance ka asar filhaal zyada arsey tak nahi chalega. Global risk aversion se ho sakta hai ke policy-tightening ka silsila ruk jaye. Japan ki equity markets mein volatility bhi BoJ ki accommodative policies ke khatme ke baad barh gayi hai, jo rate hikes ke prospects par asar andaz hui hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas, 143.06 ke level par mil sakti hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day EMA par test karne ka moka mil sakta hai, jo 149.33 ke qareeb hai, aur us ke baad "throwback support turned resistance" 150.50 par. Downside par, pair ko support 140.00 ke aas paas mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

Jumay tak, pair lagbhag 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke pair abhi tak nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level se upar aaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek potential correction shuru ho sakta hai.

Yeh wajahain hain jis ki wajah se USD/JPY ka price apne low point se decline hua aur aik din mein kuch apni favorable aspects kho diye. Wednesday ki Asian session ke dauran yeh pair strong tha, lekin phir 142.00 mark se neeche close hua. Jab traders ko aggressive bets place karni thi central bank tournament risks ke hawale se, toh essential context ne yeh indicate kiya ke spot cost ke liye downward momentum ka rujhan zyada hai.

Federal Reserve ka do din ka meeting Wednesday ko khatam hona tha, jisme unka faisla announce kiya gaya, aur umeed thi ke woh apna coverage easing cycle start karein ge. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka coverage shift Friday ko expected tha, jo market ke liye bohot interest ka moqa tha kyun ke iska direct asar Japanese yen (JPY) par hota aur USD/JPY pair ko ek significant upward move milta.Yeh cheez Tuesday ke unexpectedly strong US retail sales record ko overshadow karti, jo ke dollar ko apne 2024 lows se recover hone nahi de rahi thi. Lekin ek din mein hi US dollar ne apne intraday low 140.32 se rebound karte hue 142.44 tak pohanch gaya, jo yen ke muqablay mein ek strong increase tha. US ki strong economic facts ki wajah se investors ko Federal Reserve ke price reductions ke hawale se concerns thi, jis ki wajah se woh central bank ke economic policy decisions par focus kar rahe thay. Is ki wajah se dollar short sellers ne apni holdings ko reduce kar diya, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aik negative move samjhi gayi.

Halaankeh USD/JPY ne 180 points se zyada ka faasla tay karte hue turning point 142.35 ko test kiya, yeh pair ab bhi downward bias show kar raha hai. Agar USD/JPY September 12 ko apne daily high 143.04 se upar break kar jaye, toh important resistance levels, Kijun-Sen at 144.48 aur Senkou Span A at 143.15 expose ho sakti hain. Lekin agar yeh 142.00 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh downtrend ko aur bhi worse kar dega. Is waqt ka yearly low 139.58 ek key support level serve karega, aur 139.00 ka level ek strong support zone ho sakta hai.

Raat ke dauran USD/JPY bulls bohot strong thay, jo ke ek significant upward momentum ki wajah se tha, jis ne is pair ko aur upar push kiya. Market ki yeh strength kuch fundamental factors ki wajah se thi, lekin aaj main in factors ko apni trading strategy mein follow nahi kar raha. Is ke bawajood, yeh saaf hai ke fundamental drivers ne market ko bullish behavior ki taraf shift karne mein bara kirdar ada kiya hai. Jaise jaise din guzar raha hai, aisa lagta hai ke bulls USA session ke dauran critical 142.55 level ko test kar sakte hain. Yeh level ek key resistance point ban sakta hai, aur agar yeh breach ho gaya, toh USD/JPY mein aur upward movement ka chance hai.
Is situation mein, bears ya sellers ko ehtiyat karni chahiye aur apni positions foran exit karni chahiye, kyun ke market behavior aista aista bullish scenario ki taraf ja raha hai. Session ke dauran strong buying pressure ko dekhte hue, yeh signal mil raha hai ke bullish sentiment kaafi waqt tak barqarar reh sakta hai. Yani ke aaj sirf nahi, balki aane wale hafte tak bhi USD/JPY market bullish reh sakti hai.

Traders ko yeh developments observe karte hue, yeh market dynamics is baat ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain ke near term mein aur gains ka potential hai. Aaj ka session yeh decide karega ke 142.55 level test hoga ya nahi, lekin traders ko tayar rehna chahiye ke yeh bullish assist kaafi waqt tak chal sakta hai, jo ke aaj ke session se aage next week tak ja sakti hai. Is liye, trading strategies ko is bullish trend ke sath align karna beneficial ho sakta hai, khaaskar un logon ke liye jo market ke upward potential se faida uthana chahte hain. Price action aur market sentiment ko qareebi tor par dekhna traders ke liye zaroori hoga, jo ke is evolving market environment mein effectively navigate karna chahte hain.

Technical perspective se dekhain toh USD/JPY pair ne recently bearish trend ke signs show kiye hain. 139.69 ke support level se 142.43 tak bounce karne ke baad, price phir downward move kar raha hai. H4 chart par yeh change wazeha hai, jahan bearish candle recent highs par form hui hai. Yeh pattern yeh suggest karta hai ke upward momentum apni strength kho raha hai. Lagta hai ke yeh pair recent low 139.69 ko target kar raha hai, jo ke downtrend ka continuation ho sakta hai.

Technical indicators, jaise ke moving averages aur stochastic oscillator, yeh bearish outlook ko support karte hain. Moving averages strong downward pressure ka ishara kar rahe hain, jab ke stochastic indicator bhi further declines ki taraf indicate karta hai. Overall, technical signals is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke support level 139.69 ko test karna possible hai, aur yeh aane walay dino mein ek important level hoga dekhne ke liye.

USD/JPY ne 0.40% se barh kar 146.74 ka level pakra. Monday ko U.S. ki public holiday ki wajah se dollar ki volatility thodi flat rahi, lekin agle dinon mein macroeconomic data ka silsila shuru ho raha hai, khaaskar Friday ko non-farm payrolls data jo climax tak pohnchega. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ne inflation se ladne se zyada naukriyon ko bachane par focus shift kar diya hai, isliye Friday ko release hone wala U.S. non-farm payrolls report bahut hi ahem hai. Analysts kehte hain ke employment data se Fed ke rate cuts ke expectations ka pata chalega. Kuch hafton se market 25 basis points rate cut ki possibility ko digest kar rahi hai. Inflation data ke mutabiq, rate cut chhota hone ki umeed hai, is wajah se long-term U.S. Treasury yields ne mid-August ke baad se sabse uncha level pakra, aur dollar ne August 20 ke baad se sabse ucha level chhoda. U.S. GDP data ne bhi yeh dikhaya ke economic foundation itni mazboot hai ke Federal Reserve ko policy ko relax karne mein kam aggressive rehna chahiye. Reuters se survey kiye gaye economists ko umeed hai ke August mein U.S. non-farm payrolls 165,000 tak barhenge, jo pichle mahine se 114,000 zyada hai. Analysts kehte hain agar data forecast ke nazdeek hota hai, to U.S. economy ko soft landing milne ki umeed hai aur Fed is mahine 25 basis points policy ko ease kar sakta hai. Lekin agar data 100,000 ya usse kam hota hai, to hard landing ka risk barh jayega aur market ko lagta hai ke 50 basis points rate cut ka possibility zyada hai. Non-farm payrolls data ka impact U.S. dollar par ek waqt ke liye zyada hoga. USD/JPY pair ne ahm psychological level 146.00 ko tor diya, aur pehli baar March ke baad is level ke neechay close kiya. Pair mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mili, jisme 150-pip ki range mein fluctuation hui, aur Japanese Yen ko teen din ka low 144.74 tak le aayi. Jab Wednesday ke din Asian session ka aghaz hua, major pair lagbhag 145.07 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, aur previous close se zyada farq nahi tha.
Hourly chart ke mutabiq, pair ne descending wedge pattern ko tor diya hai, jo ke is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke bearish trend abhi jaari rehne ka imkaan hai bajaye reverse hone ke. Mazeed, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) 30 ke neechay hai, jo is baat ka ishara de raha hai ke yeh currency asset oversold position mein hai aur kuch arsay ke liye rebound kar sakta hai.

USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide USD/JPY ke trading options mein, buy option ab bhi USD/JPY movement ko dominate karega. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke is currency pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein taake potential losses ko minimize kiya ja sake, kyunki situation rapidly adverse ho sakti hai. Dollar-yen pair ke liye, humne hourly chart par decline dekha,

Dost, lagta hai ke trend rukta nahi hai aur koi cheez isse break nahi kar sakti. Agar pair 142-142.50 ka level todta hai, to pehle yeh 144-145 ke levels tak pohanchne ki koshish karega, phir 147.18 aur phir 149.40 tak jayega. Lekin abhi ke liye, hum sirf 149-150 level ka sapna dekh sakte hain. Pehle pair ko level 141 todna hoga, ek chhota girta hua channel todna hoga aur phir lagbhag 142-142.50 ke level par blue trend todna hoga. Agar yeh channel aur trend upar ki taraf nahi todta, to aap trend ke khilaf buy nahi kar sakte. Aapko bas ek signal ka intezaar karna hoga. Agar abhi buy karte hain bina signal ke, to hume gift mein 138-137 ke levels tak girawat mil sakti hai. Neeche ek target hai, aur level 140 ab tak nahi toota, aaj sirf choo liya hai lekin tod nahi saka. Is ke ilawa, iss haftay Fed ka rate aur Powell ka speech bhi expected hai. Market is event ka ek mahine se intezaar kar raha hai, aur reaction zabardast ho sakti hai, saktilar agar woh disappoint karta hai ya sakhti se baat karta hai, aur agar economic forecasts positive hain. Central Bank of Japan se bhi kaafi arsay se koi signal nahi aya, aur jald unki meeting aur rate ka announcement hoga. Har surat mein hum signal ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke abhi nahi mila. Ab yeh zaroori nahi hai ke price itna upar jayega, lekin agar aakhri price move ne USD/JPY ke neeche ka liquidity khatam kar diya hai, to ek corrective price rollback ka stage shuru ho sakta hai. Yeh rollback acchi price growth ke taur pe express ho sakta hai, aur yeh sirf upper levels ko test karne ke liye nahi balki naye trading positions banane ke liye bhi ho sakta hai. Halan ke, abhi ke liye iss pair mein buy karna theek nahi hoga, kyun ke agar hume volumes se current bullish signal ka confirmation nahi milta, to price aur niche gir sakta hai, aur bohot asani se. Agar hum ab 141.84 tak upar jate hain, aur uske baad price neeche girta hai, to aise halat mein USD/JPY ka 140.88 ka level price ko neeche jane nahi dega. Is scenario ke mutabiq, agar price 140.88 ke accumulation se upar jata hai, to pair ka price 142.85 ke level tak ja sakta hai, jahan bohot saare volumes majood hain. Wahan se ho sakta hai ke hum wapis neeche gir jayein aur ek naye minimum tak pohoch jayein

USD/JPY pair mein aik tezi se girawat dekhne ko mili, jo ke 145.00 ke qareeb pohanch gayi. Ye girawat Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish statement ki wajah se hui. Ueda ne dobara ye baat ki ke BOJ ko iss martaba mazeed interest rates barhane ki zaroorat hai, aur central bank koi dair nahi karega agar mehashi aur inflation ke halaat umeed ke mutabiq rahe. Is bayaan ne Japanese yen ko mazbooti di, jis se USD/JPY pair par selling ka pressure aya. Likha jaane ke waqt, ye 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb stable hai. Is ke bawajood ke US dollar mazboot hai, jo ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke do hafton ke high 102.00 tak pohanchne se zahir hota hai, USD/JPY pair abhi bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar is liye barh raha hai kyunke investors aglay US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ke intezar mein conservative approach ikhtiyar kar rahe hain, jo ke Friday ko aayega. Ye mehashi data intehai ahem hai, kyunke Federal Reserve ab zyada focus labor market ke neechey jhukan se mutaliq risk management par kar raha hai, aur is baat ka yaqeen hai ke inflation 2% ke target par wapas aa rahi hai. Tokyo ke consumer price indicator (CPI), jo ke taazah khorak ke ilawa ke liye hoti hai, August mein umeed se tez barh kar 2.4 tak pohanch gayi, jo ke Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko support karti hai. Stock trading mein, US stock indexes ne tez girawat dekhi, utsalar technology stocks mein. Reports ke mutabiq, US stocks Tuesday ko tezi se neeche gire, jo ke August 5 ke baad ka sab se bura din tha, is ka sabab mehashi concerns aur technology stocks mein major sell-off tha. Natija tor par, S&P 500 mein 2.1% ki girawat hui, Nasdaq jo technology-heavy hai, 3.1% gira, aur Dow Jones ne 625 points kho diye. USD/JPY pair ka analysis karte huye, main is pair ko follow karne se thora door ho gaya tha. Girawat ahista ahista jari hai. Din ke andar koi upward correction nahi hui, aur price ne apna minimum tor diya, jo ke internal pattern ko break karta hai. Girawat ab support level tak chalay gi. Mere pas weekly Fibonacci retracement 38.2% level pe neeche hai. Ye wazeh hai ke sellers ke liye neeche jana mushkil ho raha hai, magar unhe apna target perfect karna hoga taa ke wo agle perhaps mein turn around kar sakein. Halat abhi bearish hain, magar agar buyers USD/JPY ko support se door le jaane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to main 14.6% ki growth ki prediction karta hoon. Baki currency pairs ke liye mere paas US dollar ke girne ki forecast hai, magar yahaan mujhe growth ki umeed lag rahi hai

USDJPY currency pair ki price quotes ne is development ko reflect kiya. Pair ne resistance level 161.87 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai, USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega . Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga

Budh ko, spot price mein USD Index ke muqablay mein aham izafa dekhne ko mila, jo ke 140.80 ke qareeb bearish zone mein pohanch gaya. Yeh barhti hui harkat ne traders ki dilchaspi ko barhaya hai, jo ke Japan ki monetary policy par ghore kar rahe hain. Halankeh central bank ke afsaraan ne sukoot ki nishandahi ki hai, magar bazar ke utar chadhav aur ghalib be yaqiniyon ke baais unka tareeqa zara ehtiyaat par mabni hai. Yen ki Taqwiat, US Ki Maeeshat Ke Masaail aur Bank of Japan Ki Policy Mein Tabdeeli:
Yen ek mehfooz asasa ke tor par ziada dilchasp bana hai, jo ke duniya bhar mein maeeshat ke susti ke khaufon ki wajah se hai. Khaaskar, United States mein aane wali susti ka imkaan ziada ho gaya hai, jabke uska labor market kamzor dikhayi de raha hai. US mein berozgaari ki sharah 4.3% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke November 2021 ke baad se sabse unchi hai. Is berozgaari ke izafay ne Federal Reserve (Fed) ke markazi sudi sharaah mein qabil e zikar katoti ki umeed ko barhaya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, traders ko umeed hai ke September tak 50-basis point ki sudi katoti ho sakti hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke haali policies ne Yen ki qeemat mein mazeed izafa kar diya hai. Guzishta hafta, BoJ ne bazaar ko hairan karte hue umeed se ziada sudi izafa kiya, jisme key interest rates 15 basis points barh kar 0.15% - 0.25% ke range mein ho gaye. Iske ilawa, central bank ne apni mahana Japanese government bonds (JGBs) ki kharidari ko kam kar ke ¥3 trillion kar diya, jo 2026 ke pehle quarter se asar andaz hogi. In iqdamat ne Yen ki performance ko behtari ki taraf dala hai.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Tajziya:

Yeh pair 142.00 resistance level ko torhne mein nakaam raha, aur uske baad isne apni girawat ko barhaya, 141.00 ke neeche tak chali gayi, jo ke teen din tak chalti barhti qeemat ka silsila tha. Haal ke taaza update ke mutabiq, yeh currency pair 141.51 par trade kar rahi hai, jo ke 1.48% ka nuksan dikhata hai. 143.80 ke weekly high ko cross karne mein nakaami ne girawat ko mazeed barhaya aur downtrend ko mazbooti di.

Spot price nedır haal he menah tudob me a gaya hai ameerika ke dollar ke mutalliq, japoni market ke paharaun ke liye band rehne ki wajah se trading activity qaboo mein rehti hai. Is chand sahafa ke daur mein USD/JPY currency pair ne mazboot ameerika ki maeeshati data se sath mila lekin. Is data ne traders ko barqarar hone wale ameerika federal reserve ke interest rate cuts ke liye unke umeedon ko las band karne par majboor kiya hai, is tarah USD ko mazboot bana diya hai.

Saath he, gharbi Asia ke ilaqon mein husol hune wale siyasi bechainiyan currency markets par asar dalne ki salahiyaat rakhti hain. Al Arabiya ke mutabiq, ameeriki offecials Hezbollah or Iran ka jawab ane ka tawaqqa rakh rahe hain, shuruati tajjiayen is haftay ke shuru mein ik mumkin tanseeb ki soorat la rai thi. Lekin, taaza istiqlal ne is umeed ko mor kar diya hai, isharat dete hain ke kisi bhi jawab ko mukhir shanivar ya jumeraat ke doran taakhir kiya gaya ja sakta hai. Aise mosarafat safe-haven currencies jese JPY ke liye demand ko barha sakti hain.

Ameerika ke interest rate cuts ke gehrafeian ke charon taraf bazaar ki khasosi misaalat ke tor par asar andaz hoti rehti hain. CME ka FedWatch Tool buhat ziada expectation har aik bazaar main federal reserve ki september main 50 basis points (bps) ke rate cut ka mohtawar samjha jata hai, is ke alawa mazeed cuts ka hum bandarana shak hai 2024 ke reht alawa. Ye tezfehmein Greenback par mazeed niche dabaou dal sakti hain, USD/JPY pair ko asar andaz kar sakti hain.

Techincial Analysis and Market Trends

Pair ke august 5 ke low se farigh hone ka dhaga ab tak corrective zaroor lagraha hota hai sustained trend ki bajaay. 143.11 ke level ke takedil tor par guzar jana hali ki short-term uptrend ki sadagi ki shakiyat paida kar sakti hai or taqaruri nazool ki alamat dikhane ki soorat bhi ho sakti hai. Albata, 141.00 ke darj ke nichay girawat price ko 140.00 zone ki taraf le ja sakta hai, mazeed bearish movement ki alamat dene se.




Currency pair ne hal he menah ik standard ABC correction puri karte waqt ek base banai hue thi august mein. Agar keemat wave "c" ke high ke darj ko tor de, to ye is correction ke trend ka pata batane wale bara, ummidwar bearing trend mein tabdeel ho ga sakta hai. Aise breakout ke doran price 144.90 level ki taraf tawaja ja sakta hai. Albata, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) halat-e-jhazi dabao ki alamat darust karti hai, bullish outlook par ehtiyaat ki zarorat paida kar sakti hai.

142.37 par price test hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche jaane laga, dollar bechnay ka sahi entry point tasdeeq karta hai, haal hee mein chal rahi neeche ki trend ke mutabiq. Is natije mein jodi ne 30 pips se zyada gir gayi, lekin hum aaj Asian session ke doran sirf 141.50 target level tak pohanchay. Japan ke August mein industrial production ke mazboot data ne dollar par aur zyada dabao dal diya, ummeed ko barqarar rakhne ke liye neeche ki trend jari rakhne ki. Magar, zara hoshyar rahna chahiye jab current lows par selling kar rahe hain. Behtar hai ke naye short positions kholne se pehle thori correction ka muntazir rahen. Intarday strategy ke liye, mein zyada scenario No. 1 aur 2 par amal karunga.

Khareedne ka Signal Scenario No. 1: Aaj, mein USD/JPY kharidne ka irada karta hoon jab price entry point 141.51 ke qareeb pohanchay ga (chart par sabz line), 142.55 level tak uthane ki umeed rakhte hue (chart par mote sabz line). 142.55 par, mein long position se bahar nikal kar short position kholne ka irada karta hoon, 30-35 pips ke opposite direction mein movement ka intezar karte hue is level se. Aaj ki pair ki uthan sirf ek correction ka hissa maqarar kiya ja sakta hai. Ahem! Khareedne se pehle, ye zarur dhaan rakhna ke MACD indicator zero mark se oopar hai aur abhi sirf us se uthne lag gaya hai.

Scenario No. 2: Mein bhi aaj USD/JPY khareedne ka irada karta hoon agar do consecutive price tests 140.61 par hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein hota hai. Ye jodi ki neeche ki potential ko mehdood karega aur upar market ka u-turn le aayega. 141.51 aur 142.55 levels ki taraf tezi ki umeed ki ja sakti hai.

Bechnay ka Signal Scenario No. 1: Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka irada karta hoon sirf 140.61 level ka test karne ke baad (chart par laal line), jo jodi mein tezi se girne ka silsila shuru karega. Bechne wale ke liye mukhya target 139.56 level hoga, jahan par main short position se bahar nikal kar turant long position kholunga (is level se 20-25 pips ke opposite direction mein movement ka intezar karte hue). Dollar ke liye bearish market kahin bhi laut sakti hai, kyunke aisay market ab tak maujood hai. Ahem! Bechne se pehle, ye zarur dhaan rakhna ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche hai aur abhi sirf us se girne lag gaya hai.




Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY bechne ka irada karta hoon agar 141.51 price ke do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein hota hai. Ye jodi ki upar ki potential ko mehdood karega aur market ka u-turn neeche ki taraf le aayega. 140.61 aur 139.56 levels ki taraf girne ki umeed ki ja sakti hai.

Ham abhi USDJPY ke pricing movement ke tajziya parh rahe hain. Bechne wale abhi bhi USD/JPY pair par qabza rakhte hain kyunki ye wazeh hai ke price movement continuously gir rahi hai. Price ka girna bohot jald hua, khareedne walo ki dabao ke bawajood ise barhane mein kamyabi nahi mili. Negtive trend ki tendency ke roshni mein, price ko FR 127.1 ya FR 161.8 tak tez kar sakti hai phir barhne ke liye. Price girte rahi jab tak ye low levels ya FR 100 - 143.47, na cross hua, price ka retracement FR 50 - 145.35 aur FR 61.8 - 144.90 ke darmiyan khatam hone mein kamiab nahi rahi. Is ke bawajood, wazeh hai ke stochastic indicator ke parameters cross kar chuke hain aur ab level 50 tak pohanchne ki koshish kar rahe hain jiska oversold zone mein dakhil hone ke baad 20 se le kar 10 tak hua tha. Magar, lower low - lower high price pattern ki structure zyada price increase ko rok rahi hai.




Mozuay ke daily period pattern ke mutabiq, price ab Ema points aur middle Bollinger daily ke neeche nazar aa rahi hai jo ke downward pattern ya trend ko mazboot aur dominant look deti hai. Ye ek number ke indicators se bhi strong downward pattern dikhata hai, jin mein RSI aur stochastic shamil hain, jahan stochastic 20 kshetr tak tezi se gir gaya hai aur RSI 70 level mein inkaar kar rahi hai. Koi keh sakta hai ke price increase sirf EMA 50 ke paas ek lower high tak pohonchne ka nateeja hai phir naya lower low banane ke liye gir jayega. Agar mojooda invalidation level jo ke buland prices mein 147.22 hai, sahi se clear na ho to market apni upward correction phase mein barqarar rahegi, ant mein SMA 200 ke liye dynamic resistance tak ponchegi.