usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

deceleration dikhate hain downward trajectory mein, jo ke possible reversal ki taraf ishara karte hain jo last Friday se manifest hona shuru hui thi. US dollar ka potential weakening yeh bullish outlook support karta hai. Mukhtalif economic indicators aur market sentiments bhi dollar ke retreat ki taraf ishara karte hain, jo USD/JPY pair ki upward movement ko further enhance karte hain. Jo traders is trend ko recognize karte hain, wo support level ke aas paas long positions enter kar ke anticipated upward movement ko capitalize kar sakte

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hain Market conditions for USD/JPY currency pair indicate karte hain ke long positions ke liye ek promising scenario paida ho raha hai. Support level 161.35-161.21 pe ache se held hai, aur anticipated upward movement towards the 161.83-161.36 resistance zone ek favorable opportunity present karta hai traders ke liye. Buyers ki strength, recent price actions se evident hai aur expected weakening of the US dollar, bullish outlook ko further bolster karti hai. Jab market potential gains ke liye gear up kar rahi hai, traders ko in key levels aur trends ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake apne profit potential ko maximize kar saken. Pichle hafte ke market behavior ko analyze karte hue, yeh evident hota hai ke buyers consistently support level 161.300 ko held kar rahe hain, jo price ko further girne se rokti hai. Yeh strong support foundation potential upward movement ke liye ek solid base create kar rahi hai. Resistance level 161.47 ek critical benchmark serve karta hai, jo agar reach ho jaye, to bullish trend ki strength ko validate kar sakta hai Pichle hafte ka completion resistance level 161.73-161.46 ke aas paas ek strong indicator hai buyer strength ka. Yeh level historically ek significant resistance point act karta hai, aur price ka is level ke paas close hona suggest karta hai ke buyers control gain kar rahe hain. Yeh bullish momentum agle kuch dinon mein continue hone ki expectation hai, price ko 161.83 resistance zone ki taraf push karte hue Conversely, ek higher-than-expected rate USD ko weaken kar sakta hai, jo ke hamari strategy ka reevaluation zaroori bana deta hai. In conclusion, mein suggest karunga ke hum bullish concept follow karein. Technical aur fundamental analysis dono potential upward movement ko indicate karte hain. Market potentially 161.42 level ko reach kar sakti hai, jo positive economic data aur favorable market conditions se support hoti hai. Apni trading strategy ko prevailing bullish trend ke sath align kar ke aur key economic indicators ke baray mein informed rah ke, hum apne potential for profit ko maximize kar sakte hain while risk ko effectively

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide





kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai
Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte hain

Salam, dosto! Aap bilkul sahi keh rahe hain ke USD/JPY ab sabhi moving averages aur guides ko break kar raha hai. Kal yeh pair lagbhag do so points attack kar chuki thi. Aur aaj din to shuru hi hua hai, aur inhone pehle se hi ek sau se zyada pips south ki taraf kama liye hain. Yeh pair roknay se lagbhag nishchit hai. Ab daily chart par indicators ke mutabiq aur wave technique ka istemal karte hue:

• MA100 ab dheere-dheere apne bullish mood ko khota dikhayi de raha hai. Yeh moving average pehle growth ke trend angle se almost tees degree ki inclination par tha, lekin ab recent bears ke influence se yeh decline ki taraf tilt kar raha hai aur ab yeh almost horizontal ho gaya hai.
• MA18 ne decline ke trend angle se chaartees degree ke angle par bend kiya hai aur ab yeh almost vertical south ki taraf ja raha hai. Yeh dekh kar lagta hai ke yeh near future mein ek dead cross banane ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ke ek sell signal ho sakta hai.
• Ichimoku cloud abhi bullish colors mein hai, lekin future forecast ke mutabiq yeh bears ke side mein switch ho raha hai. Matlab, future mein decline continue karne ka forecast hai.

Screen par dekha gaya hai ke sabhi basement indicator bundles decline continue karne ka indication de rahe hain. Pehla calculated support level 151.70 hai.


Bilkul crazy situation hai. Kal subah bhi kuch aisa hi dekha gaya. Abhi support ke paas hai aur thodi si buying ki ja sakti hai, lekin expectation hai ke USD/JPY aur decline karega aur har decline par zyada gain dega. Mujhe lagta hai ke southern trend se nikalne ka waqt upward direction mein hoga. Filhaal, Japanese yen ko strengthen karne ki tendency dikhayi de rahi hai, jo ke market mein potential bullish control ko indicate karta hai. Agar agle session mein market bullish potential ko confirm karta hai, to short positions ko close karna sahi rahega. Jabke yen ka growth continue karne ki zyada ichha nahi dikhayi de rahi, hum ye maan sakte hain ke yen ka upward trend setup ho raha hai aur 155.75 level tak pahunchne par nayi sale ki possibility ko consider karna chahiye. Aapko strong reversal ka impulse milna zaroori hai aur resistance level par rukne ke bajaye, potential profitable sell trade karne ke liye.

jo USD/JPY pair ki upward movement ko further enhance karte hain. Jo traders is trend ko recognize karte hain, wo support level ke aas paas long positions enter kar ke anticipated upward movement ko capitalize kar sakte hain Market conditions for





USD/JPY currency pair indicate karte hain ke long positions ke liye ek promising scenario paida ho raha hai. Support level 161.35-161.21 pe ache se held hai, aur anticipated upward movement towards the 161.83-161.36 resistance zone ek favorable opportunity present karta hai traders ke liye. Buyers ki strength, recent price actions se evident hai aur expected weakening of the US dollar, bullish outlook ko further bolster karti hai. Jab market potential gains ke liye gear up kar rahi hai, traders ko in key levels aur trends ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake apne profit potential ko maximize kar saken. Pichle hafte ke market behavior ko analyze karte hue, yeh evident hota hai ke buyers consistently support level 161.300 ko held kar rahe hain, jo price ko further girne se rokti hai. Yeh strong support foundation potential upward movement ke liye ek solid base create kar rahi hai. Resistance level 161.47 ek critical benchmark serve karta hai, jo agar reach ho jaye, to bullish trend ki strength ko validate kar sakta hai Pichle hafte ka completion resistance level 161.73-161.46 ke aas paas ek strong indicator hai buyer strength ka. Yeh level historically ek significant resistance point act karta hai, aur price ka is level ke paas close hona suggest karta hai ke buyers control gain kar rahe hain. Yeh bullish momentum agle kuch dinon mein continue hone ki expectation hai, price ko 161.83 resistance zone ki taraf push karte hue Conversely, ek higher-than-expected rate USD ko weaken kar sakta hai, jo ke hamari strategy ka reevaluation zaroori bana deta hai. In conclusion, mein suggest karunga ke hum bullish concept follow karein. Technical aur fundamental analysis dono potential upward movement ko indicate karte hain. Market potentially 161.42 level ko reach kar sakti hai, jo positive economic data aur favorable market conditions se support hoti hai

karta hai hawkish Federal Reserve ke sath US mein, jo dollar ko higher drive kar raha hai. USD/JPY ne recently ek key resistance level 158.34 ko break kiya aur abhi 160.20 ke thoda neeche hover kar raha hai. Jabke pair ne recent days mein resistance around 159.80 face kiya hai, agar crucial 159.00 level ke neeche break hota hai to yeh potential downside correction signal kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY 159.00 ke upar hold karta hai, to further rise ka chance abhi bhi hai. USD/JPY currency pair par paisa kamane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Aaj mein is instrument ki volatility ko dekh raha hoon aur yeh andaza hai ke yeh 157.164 ke support level tak decline karega, jahan se khareedna bohot munasib hoga. Baaki sab kuch instrument ki aaj ki volatility par mabni hoga. Kyunki mujhe 159.023 level tak growth ki umeed hai, main stop loss ko zyada door nahi rakhunga, lagbhag 157.139 ke level par. Expected profit aur limiting losses ka behtareen ratio hasil ho jayega. Agar stop loss level hit hota hai, to growth ke saath saare plans cancel kar dunga aur aaj ke liye bina profit ke reh jaunga. Main yeh bhi dekhna chahta hoon ke price 158.076 level par kaise react karega. Yeh bhi ek ahem role ada kar sakta hai. Agar aaj humein ek upward impulse milta hai, 158.00 range tak, to uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. Choti upward impulse 159.70 range tak ho sakti hai, phir wahan se fall continue hoga. Current level se corrective growth abhi bhi mumkin hai, lekin uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. 156.06 se choti impulse pehle hi ho chuki hai aur uske baad fall continue hoga. Current range se fall abhi bhi mumkin hai. Buyers price tag ko upar 158.80 se upar le ja




hain aur measures hint kiye hain Yen ko support karne ke liye. Yeh stance sharply contrast karta hai hawkish Federal Reserve ke sath US mein, jo dollar ko higher drive kar raha hai. USD/JPY ne recently ek key resistance level 158.34 ko break kiya aur abhi 160.20 ke thoda neeche hover kar raha hai. Jabke pair ne recent days mein resistance around 159.80 face kiya hai, agar crucial 159.00 level ke neeche break hota hai to yeh potential downside correction signal kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY 159.00 ke upar hold karta hai, to further rise ka chance abhi bhi hai. USD/JPY currency pair par paisa kamane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Aaj mein is instrument ki volatility ko dekh raha hoon aur yeh andaza hai ke yeh 157.164 ke support level tak decline karega, jahan se khareedna bohot munasib hoga. Baaki sab kuch instrument ki aaj ki volatility par mabni hoga. Kyunki mujhe 159.023 level tak growth ki umeed hai, main stop loss ko zyada door nahi rakhunga, lagbhag 157.139 ke level par. Expected profit aur limiting losses ka behtareen ratio hasil ho jayega. Agar stop loss level hit hota hai, to growth ke saath saare plans cancel kar dunga aur aaj ke liye bina profit ke reh jaunga. Main yeh[ATTACH=CONFIG]n13083450[/ATTACH]bhi dekhna chahta hoon ke price 158.076 level par kaise react karega. Yeh bhi ek ahem role ada kar sakta hai. Agar aaj humein ek upward impulse milta hai, 158.00 range tak, to uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. Choti upward impulse 159.70 range tak ho sakti hai, phir wahan se fall continue hoga. Current level se corrective growth abhi bhi mumkin hai, lekin uske baad bhi fall continue hoga. 156.06 se choti impulse pehle hi ho chuki hai aur uske baad fall continue hoga. Current range se fall abhi bhi mumkin hai. Buyers price tag ko upar 158.80 se upar le ja

USD/JPY ki technical analysis ke mutabiq, market mein buyers ka waqt qareeb hai jab ke bears apni corrective phase mukammal kar chuke hain. Agar hum cloud mein enter karte hain, to hum bears ki tamam aglay waves ko cancel kar sakte hain aur reversal mein jaa kar highs ki taraf waapis aa sakte hain. Pichle saal is level ke saath ek mirror image tha, lekin us waqt yeh resistant tha. Ab jab ke bears isay break karne mein naakam ho chuke hain, market smoothly buyers ki taraf move karega, aur hum cloud ke upar rise karenge. Jaise hi hum top par waapis aate hain, hum progress karenge.

Buyers aise increase ko guarantee kar sakte hain baghair kisi sharp move ke. Unhain kisi confirmed level par absorption karne ki zarurat nahi hai kyunki dollar ki fundamental strength mazboot hai. Halaanki dollar weak hai, magar yeh current JPY se ziada strong hai. Market mein bohot log yeh samajhte hain ke dollar ruble ke against gir gaya hai aur yeh ek weak currency hai, magar yeh sahi nahi hai.



Wajah yeh hai ke aajkal Russians ko tamam goods aur services ke liye ziada paise dene par raazi hona padta hai, aur is ka sabab ruble ka dollar ke against rise hona hai. Is ke bawajood, hum kisi bhi surat mein economic tor par superior rahenge. Dollar ke paas ab bhi apna wazan hai, is liye mein 1.1 long-term target se highs tak buy karte hue continue karunga. Qareeb ke goals 150-210 points adjust ho sakte hain. Agar aapko top levels se 147.50 tak kuch nazar nahi aata, to aap Fibonacci grid ko chart par drag kar sakte hain.

Yeh waqt qareeb hai ke demand wapas buyers ki taraf aaye jab ke bears apni corrective phase mukammal kar chuke hain. Agar hum pall mein jaayein, toh hum bears ke tamam pichlay swells ko cancel kar sakte hain aur ek reversal mein aa sakte hain, sakoonat se highs ki taraf lautte hue. Aakhri dafa is position ke saath ek shisha tasveer thi, lekin yeh bhi muqawamat kar rahi thi. Ab jab ke bears kamiyab nahi ho sake tootne mein, toh market asaani se buyers ki taraf move karega, aur hum pall ke upar uthenge. Jab hum upar lautenge, toh hum taraqqi karenge. Buyers pehle hi yeh izafa guarantee kar sakte hain baghair kisi tezi ke moves ke. Unhein ek verified position pe tawajjo dene ki zaroorat nahi, bone ki bunyadi mazbooti ki wajah se. Halaankeh bone kamzor hai, lekin yeh ab bhi JPY se zyada taqatwar hai. Market mein kai log samajhte hain ke bone ruble ke against gir gaya hai aur yeh ek kamzor currency hai, lekin yeh sahi nahi.
Wajah yeh hai ke Russians ab zyada paisay dete hain har cheez aur services ke liye, aur yeh bilkul isi wajah se hai. Hamari price barh jayegi kyun ke ruble ne bone ke against rise kiya hai. Iske bawajood, hum kisi bhi surat mein ma'ashi tor pe afzal rahenge. Bone ab bhi wazn rakhta hai, isliye main 1.1 long-term target se highs tak kharidari karte rahunga. Nazdeek ke targets 150-210 points tak adjust ho sakte hain. Agar aap "qareeb" tarraqqi karte hain toh isay mukammal karna mumkin hai. Agar 147.50 tak ke top levels aapki tawajjo nahi pakarte, toh aap Fibonacci grid ko map pe drag kar sakte hain.

Daily chart par, USD/JPY do ahem levels dikha raha hai jo ke jaari girawat se rebound kar sakte hain. Pehla 147.19 hai; sabse ahem weekly level 146.29 hai, jiske neeche koi ahem weekly price consolidation nahi hui. Agar market is level ki kamzori pe react karta hai, toh bearish trend ghair yaqini tor pe jaari reh sakti hai. Main nayi trading week khulte waqt yeh dekhunga ke market in levels pe kis tarah react karta hai taake market ki current direction ko behtar samajh sakoon aur zyada maloomat ke saath trading decisions le sakoon. Bearish trend ke jaari rehne ka imkaan hai, aur guzishta hafte ki bullish correction sirf daily price chart ke ird gird ek temporary rebound thi. Yeh pair Friday ko 150.0 resistance zone se zabardasti bounce hua, Thursday ke daily candle ko absorb karte hue. Yeh mazeed downward movement ka ishara de sakta hai, jo ke 141.73 ke support ko tor sakta hai, kyun ke neeche wala moving average ek bearish continuation ka ishara deta hai

Good morning. Mein aaj ek essay likh raha hoon jo USD/JPY market mein abhi ke daamon ke hawale se hai. Is waqt USD/JPY ka daam 147.57 par trade kar raha hai. USD index 102.37 ke support level ko test kar raha hai. Is liye, iss time frame mein USD/JPY ka bullish hona asaan hai. Is waqt USD/JPY bullish lag raha hai. Kal ke trading mein USD/JPY market mein zyada tar bikray hui thi, jis ki wajah se daam neeche ki taraf gaya. Iss time frame chart par, USD/JPY ka daam overbought nahi lagta kyunki Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ne 70 ko touch nahi kiya. Saath hi, technically, USD/JPY ka daam overbought nahi lagta kyunki moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator ne 0.0065 ko touch nahi kiya. Aur, daam 50 EMA line se upar hai iss time frame chart mein, is liye ab iska trend bullish hai, aur meri raye mein yeh resistance level ko test karega jo maine diagram mein dikhaya hai.
USD/JPY bulls iss waqt $161.56 ke barrier par hamla kar rahe hain. Daam pehla resistance level paar kar sakta hai aur mutawaqqa tor par dusre resistance level tak ja sakta hai jo 167.65 par hai. Is chart par hum dekh sakte hain ke supply/resistance area jo 172.54 ke price range mein hai, ek mazboot area hai jo ke 3rd level of resistance hai. Doosri taraf, USD/JPY ka initial support level 137.33 hai. Daam pehla support level paar kar sakta hai aur mutawaqqa tor par dusre support level tak ja sakta hai jo 102.37 par hai. Is chart par hum dekh sakte hain ke demand/support area jo 76.15 ke price range mein hai, ek mazboot area hai jo 3rd level of support hai. Dekhte hain kuch ghanton mein kya hota hai. Humein trading ke doran is risky pair ke liye ehtiyaat se kaam lena hoga

Aaj main USD/JPY currency pair ki price movement ko forecast karne ki koshish karunga, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) channel indicator ka istemal karte hue, jo moving average analysis par mabni hai. Filhal, TMA channel upward direction mein hai, jo buyers ki strength ko zahir karta hai, sellers par. Kuch downward retracements ke bawajood, mera yehi khayal hai ke bulls abhi bhi mazboot hain aur apna dominance bears ko dene ke liye tayyar nahi hain.

### Current Market Overview

TMA indicator, jo price trend aur market direction samajhne mein madad karta hai, is waqt ek upward channel dikha raha hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke market bullish phase mein hai, aur buyers ka upper hand hai. Upward channel buyers ki ongoing strength ko zahir karta hai, jo price ko higher le ja rahe hain, hamesha ke liye nahi, magar occasional pullbacks ke bawajood.

### Directional Indicators aur Trading Strategy

Zigzag line, jo price direction aur trend changes ka insight deti hai, is waqt long positions open karne ka idea support karti hai. Zigzag line ka direction yeh dikhata hai ke is waqt buy trades enter karna zyada faidemand hai. Yeh TMA channel mein dekhe gaye overall bullish trend ke sath align karta hai.

Apni trading strategy ko mazeed refine karne ke liye, main Laguerre aur RSI (Relative Strength Index) jaise additional indicators ka istemal karta hoon. Dono indicators is waqt buy zone mein hain, jo TMA channel se zahir hone wale bullish sentiment ko confirm karte hain. Laguerre filter strong trends identify karne mein madad karta hai, jabke RSI overbought ya oversold conditions ka pata deta hai. Dono indicators TMA channel se milne wale buy signal ko reinforce karte hain, jo long positions lene ka case mazid mazboot banata hai.

### Target Price aur Exit Strategy

Jo long position main open karne ka plan bana raha hoon, uska target Fibonacci retracement level par mabni hai. Khaas tor par, main apna order close karna chahta hoon jab price Fibonacci 61.8% level tak pohonch jaye, jo 152.300 ke price point par hai. Fibonacci levels ko wide tor par potential support aur resistance points identify karne ke liye istemal kiya jata hai, aur 61.8% level ko aksar price retracement aur reversal ke liye aik significant point samjha jata hai.

### Risk Management

Jab indicators long trades ke liye ek favorable environment suggest karte hain, to risk management phir bhi intehai ahem hai. Market ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai aur strategy ko adjust karne ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye agar conditions badalti hain. Stop loss set karna aur price movements ko closely follow karna potential risks ko manage karne aur significant losses se bachaane mein madad karega.

USD/JPY movement ki analysis mein yeh dekha gaya hai ke guzishta Friday ko 149.370 ke high level se correction pressure aaya. Is correction ne selling pressure zahir kiya jab price apni peak par pohanch gaya, lekin usse pehle buyers ne 147.922 ke aas paas mazboot resistance ko tor diya tha. Yeh breakout strong buyer pressure ke saath hua, jiska pata ek impulsive bullish candle ke formation se chalta hai, jo ke price ko kaafi significantly upar le gayi. Filhal, price 147.586 ke key support level par stuck hai, jo ek ahem area hai. Yeh key level buyers ke liye ek turning point ban sakta hai taake wo market mein dobara enter kar saken. Agar buyers is support ke upar price ko barqarar rakhne mein kaamyab hote hain, to is baat ka zyada imkaan hai ke price apne uptrend ko continue karega, kam az kam un resistances ko dobara test karega jo pehle tor diye gaye the, ya phir shayad ek nayi high bhi print karega.

Mera trading plan is situation ke hawalay se yeh hai ke main 147.586 ke support price ke aas paas buy position enter karne ki koshish karunga. Yeh area kaafi interesting hai kyunke yeh us support level par hai jo pehle resistance tha. Agar buyers is level par market ko dominate karne mein kaamyab hote hain, to buy karne ka mauqa kaafi potential rakhta hai agar price ek confirmation signal deta hai ke support se rebound hoga. Iske ilawa, strategy ko mazid mazboot karne ke liye main order block area 147.144 - 147.323 mein buy limit place karne ka soch raha hoon. Yeh order block woh zone hai jahan pehle price consolidation hui thi uske baad ek significant spike aaya tha. Is area mein buy limit place karna, kam price par enter karne ka mouqa faraham karta hai, jis ke saath risk ka potential bhi measurable hota hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Trend ab bhi downside ki taraf skewed hai

Kal, yen Asian session mein baghair kisi clear catalyst ke across the board strong ho gaya. Yeh zyada technical move lagta hai kyun ke price ne ek key trendline ko tod diya tha, na ke kuch fundamental reason ki wajah se.

Dusri taraf, Friday ko dovish Powell speech ke liye pre-positioning ho sakti hai, kyun ke wo September mein rate cut ke liye pre-commit karne ka imkaan rakhte hain. Badi tasveer mein, rate cuts resilient growth ke sath economic activity ko boost karni chahiye aur long term yields ko high rakhna chahiye.

Iske ilawa, risk-on sentiment yen par bhi weight karega, kyun ke carry trades ab bhi ek behtar option hoga. To, Federal Reserve ke rate cuts aur potential BoJ rate hikes ke sath tasveer thori unclear ho gayi hai, lekin long term mein, US economy mein ek zyada pronounced slowdown ke baghair yen ki appreciation mushkil lagti hai.

Phir bhi, filhal trend downside ki taraf skewed hai, to humein “confirmation” ki zarurat hai technical side se taake zyada upside ke liye dekha ja sake ya phir is idea ko discard kiya ja sake.

• USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
  
  Daily chart par, hum dekh sakte hain ke USDJPY ne 149.00 handle ke qareeb broken trendline ko reject kiya, jahan par 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level bhi tha for confluence. Wahan par sellers ne ek drop ke liye position ki 140.00 handle tak. Buyers ye chahenge ke price 149.00 handle ke upar break kare taake zyada conviction mile aur naye highs ke liye rally ki position ki ja sake.
• USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
  
  4-hour chart par, hum dekh sakte hain ke price ne pichle week downward trendline se thoda upar probe kiya, lekin phir wapas neeche aa gaya aur aur bhi gir gaya jab price ne counter-trendline ko 147.60 level ke qareeb tod diya.
  
  Ab price downward trendline tak wapas pullback kar chuki hai, aur yeh wahan hai jahan hum expect kar sakte hain ke sellers step in karenge with a defined risk trendline ke upar aur drop ke liye position karenge 140.00 handle tak. Buyers, doosri taraf, yeh chahenge ke price upar break kare taake aur bhi control mile aur 149.00 handle ke upar break ke liye position kiya ja sake.
• USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
  
  1-hour chart par, hum dekh sakte hain ke price ne previous range ke andar wapas entry ki hai, jo 146.00 support aur 148.00 resistance ke beech mein thi. Resistance zone downward trendline ke qareeb hai, isliye sellers apne stops protect karne ke liye yahan par ek achi barrier rakhenge.
  
  Ek minor counter-trendline bhi support ke qareeb hai, to agar yeh neeche break hoti hai to bearish momentum barh sakta hai jab sellers aur bhi aggressively pile in karenge. Buyers, doosri taraf, yeh chahenge ke price 148.00 resistance ke upar break kare taake naye highs ko target kiya ja sake. Red lines aaj ke liye average daily range define karti hain.

Upcoming Catalysts

Thursday ko humein US Jobless Claims figures aur US PMIs milenge. Friday ko Japanese CPI aur Fed Chair Powell ki speech Jackson Hole Symposium mein conclude karegi.

Technical Analysis

Intraday bias USD/JPY mein ab tak mildly downside par hai. Rebound jo 141.67 se hua tha, yeh 149.35 par complete ho sakta hai jab yeh 38.2% retracement of 161.94 se 141.67 tak ke rejection ke baad 149.41 par aaya tha. Deeper fall wapas 141.67 low ko retest karne ke liye dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Agar yeh firmly break hota hai, to poora fall 161.94 se 139.26 fibonacci level tak resume ho sakta hai. Filhal, risk downside par rahega jab tak 149.35 resistance hold karta hai, agar recovery hoti hai.



Fall from 161.94 medium term mein yeh whole uptrend ko correct karte hue dekha ja sakta hai jo 102.58 (2021 low) se shuru hua tha. Deeper decline 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 tak dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo 140.25 support ke qareeb hai. Kisi bhi case mein, risk downside par rahega jab tak 55 W EMA (jo ab 149.63 par hai) hold karta hai. Phir bhi, agar 55 W EMA firmly break hota hai to yeh suggest karega ke medium term corrective pattern ka range already set ho chuka hai.

USD/JPY trades ke analysis aur tips:

Price 148.50 par test hone ke baad, jab MACD indicator zero mark se kaafi neeche gir gaya tha, to pair ka downward potential week ke end tak limited tha. Isi wajah se maine sell nahi kiya aur kisi bhi transaction se reh gaya. Aaj yen ne dollar ke against rise kiya, aur G10 currencies mein se sabse zyada gains kiye. Yeh rise us waqt hua jab top central bank officials ke comments aane wale hain jo is hafte speak karenge. Yen ka rise, dollar ki broad weakness aur major market participants ke positions ke revision ke sath jura hai, especially Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole mein speech se pehle.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main Scenario No. 1 par zyada rely karunga:

**Buy Signals:**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, main USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 145.93 par pohonchay, jo ke chart par green line se plot kiya gaya hai, aur uska goal 146.91 tak ka rise hai jo ke chart par thicker green line se plot kiya gaya hai. Jab price 146.91 par pohonchay, to main long positions ko exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karunga, 30-35 pips ki movement expect kar raha hoon is level se. Pair ka aaj upward correction ke part ke tor par rise ho sakta hai. Important yeh hai ke buy karne se pehle, ensure karen ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar hai aur wahan se rise karna shuru kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 145.21 par do dafa consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit kar dega aur market ko reverse upturn ki taraf le aayega. Growth expect kar sakte hain opposite levels 145.93 aur 146.91 tak.

**Sell Signals:**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab, jab price 145.21 par test ho jaye, jo ke chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, yeh pair mein rapid decline la sakta hai. Sellers ka key target 144.36 hoga, jahan main short positions ko exit karunga aur immediately opposite direction mein long positions open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aasakta hai, especially agar pehle half of the day mein correction unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high test nahi hota. Important yeh hai ke sell karne se pehle, ensure karen ke MACD indicator zero mark se neeche hai aur decline kar raha hai.

**Scenario No. 2:** Main USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 145.93 par do consecutive price tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit kar dega aur market ko reverse downturn ki taraf le aayega. Decline expect kar sakte hain opposite level 145.21 aur 144.36 tak.

Aaj mein W1 chart ke senior period par ghore karne ka mashwara deta hoon - USDJPY currency pair. Yahan aap dekh sakte hain ke is pair ki price ka mustaqil girawat jaari hai. Mein soch sakta hoon un bechne walon ka haal jo apne paas kaafi paisa nahi rakh sakay taake is pair ki girawat ko bardasht kar saken, kyun ke intezar ka zamana khatam ho gaya hai aur girawat ka silsila shuru ho gaya hai, price hamesha ke liye upar nahi ja sakti thi. MACD indicator ne girawat ka ishara diya tha, jis par ek bara bearish divergence bana, jo itne bara time interval par kafi kam hota hai, yeh ek saal mein

sirf ek martaba hota hai, ya phir is se bhi kam. Maximum ke akhri update par bhi, second istamal honay wala indicator CCI par ek bearish divergence bana. Yeh sab us waqt tasdeek hui jab price ne reversal figure se niche nikala - ek ascending wedge. Iske baad price gir gayi, apne raste par sab obstacles ko torhti hui, aur un par sirf thode waqt ke liye rukki. Pehle yahan ka main support level 152.16 tha, halan ke upar rebound hua, magar phir bhi sellers ke pressure se gir gaya. Uske baad, jaisa ke expect kiya gaya tha, hum ascending support line tak pohnche, lekin yeh koi khas rebound nahi de sakti thi, yeh niche dhakel di gayi largely due to US mein Friday ke bure khabar ki wajah se, US dollar market mein kamzor ho gaya. Non-agricultural employment rate waqi se kafi bura tha. US mein unemployment rate ek dam se 0.2 points barh gaya. Nai hafta shuru hui aur price ne aage niche ka rukh liya bina kisi upward correction ka sochay. Hum horizontal support level 140.81 ke kareeb pohnch gaye. Thoda kam tha, well, shayad ab bhi is level ka pass aur specific test ho sakta hai. Iske qareeb, mere khayal se hum choti period par upwards entry consider kar sakte hain taake ek possible upward correction ka part le sakein. Aaj ki noteworthy news: 16-45 Moscow time: US Services Business Activity Index, US Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from S&P Global. 17-00: US Non-Manufacturing Employment Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Pric

girawat ka silsila shuru ho gaya hai, price hamesha ke liye upar nahi ja sakti thi. MACD indicator ne girawat ka ishara diya tha, jis par ek bara bearish divergence bana, jo itne bara time interval par kafi kam hota hai, yeh ek saal mein sirf ek martaba hota hai, ya phir is se bhi kam. Maximum ke akhri update par bhi, second istamal honay wala indicator CCI par ek bearish divergence bana. Yeh sab us waqt tasdeek hui jab price ne reversal figure se niche nikala - ek ascending wedge. Iske baad price gir gayi, apne raste par sab obstacles ko torhti hui, aur un par sirf thode waqt ke liye rukki. Pehle yahan ka main support level 152.16 tha, halan ke upar rebound hua, magar phir bhi sellers ke pressure se gir gaya. Uske baad, jaisa ke expect kiya gaya tha, hum ascending support line tak pohnche, lekin yeh koi khas rebound nahi de sakti thi, yeh niche dhakel di gayi largely due to US mein Friday ke bure khabar ki wajah se, US dollar market mein kamzor ho gaya. Non-agricultural employment rate waqi se kafi bura tha. US mein unemployment rate ek dam se 0.2 points barh gaya. Nai hafta shuru hui aur price ne aage niche ka rukh liya bina kisi upward correction ka sochay. Hum horizontal support level 140.81 ke kareeb pohnch gaye. Thoda kam tha, well, shayad ab bhi is level ka pass aur specific test ho sakta hai. Iske qareeb, mere khayal se hum choti period par upwards entry consider kar sakte hain taake ek possible upward correction ka part le sakein. Aaj ki noteworthy news: 16-45 Moscow time: US Services Business Activity Index, US Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from S&P Global. 17-00: US Non-Manufacturing Employment Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (ISM), US Non-Manufacturing Price Index

Hum USD/JPY currency pair ke present pricing behavior ka analysis aur discussion kar rahay hain. Buyers abhi tak 146.49 resistance level ke upar control establish nahi kar sake, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke yeh pair shayad ek correction phase se guzar raha hai before doosri koshish. Technical indicators bhi correction phase ka signal de rahe hain. Yeh pair kal resistance ko break kar sakta hai, magar main expect kar raha hoon ke price 144.99 se 146.89 ke range mein flat hi rahe, kyun ke bullish momentum abhi bhi weak hai aur bearish trend solidify nahi hua. Four-hour chart par current situation interesting hai, kyun ke sellers ne price ko lower drive kiya hai, lekin unka influence kam hota nazar aa raha hai, jo buyers ko ground gain karne ka mauqa de raha hai. Is context mein, 143.995 ke price point par buying ka ek acha mauqa ho sakta hai, jahan 149.738 resistance level ek reasonable profit target ho sakta hai. USD/JPY pair aaj notable bearish pressure mein hai, aur four-hour chart par kaafi strong sell signals nazar aa rahe hain. Correction line ka breakdown aur Ichimoku cloud ka breach yeh sab downtrend ka continuation point karte hain. 15-minute chart par ek ascending wedge pattern form ho chuki hai, jo aam tor par current trend ke continuation ko indicate karta hai, matlab ke downward breakout ho sakta hai. Magar, exceptions bhi hoti hain jahan price wedge se upward exit kar jata hai, jo short-term reversal ka sabab banta hai. Filhal, sab se zyada likely scenario yeh hai ke decline ka resumption hoga, is liye main buying ke liye abhi cautious hoon. Price 146.79 tak rise kar sakti hai pehle ke naye selling wave ko trigger kare ya current levels se breakdown ho jaye. U.S. markets ki aaj low activity ki wajah se, day ka end flat ho sakta hai. USD/JPY pair pehle hi ek significant move dekh chuka hai, jisme 299-point drop aur phir 149-point correction hui, isliye kal ke session ka wait karna zyada prudent ho sakta hai taake zyada precise trading opportunities mil sakein