USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY pair ne kal apna aik strong buy resistance level tod dia hai ap mere chart par dekh rahy hongy jo bullish momentum ka indication de raha hai aur ab market neeche se aik order block ke pass hai jahan se price wapas upar ja sakti hai 50 ki EMA market price se neeche hai jo buying ka support provide kar rahi hai aur yeh dikhata hai ke trend bullish hai RSI bhi 50 level se thora upar hai jo momentum ko bullish side par support kar raha hai agar price order block se bounce karti hai to next resistance jo 157.87 ke qareeb hai wahan tak pohchne ka imkaan hai lekin agar price order block ko todti hai to neeche 156.50 ka level ek significant support ban sakta hai jis par buyers wapas market control hasil karne ki koshish karenge filhal market structure bullish hai aur agar price order block se rejection leti hai to continuation move expect kiya ja sakta hai price action indicators aur candlestick patterns ko dekhna zaroori hoga taake confirmation mile ke bullish trend barqarar hai ya nahi fundamental tor par US dollar ki strength aur Japan ki monetary policy bhi pair par asar dal sakti hai agar US economic data positive aata hai to USD/JPY further bullish momentum hasil kar sakta hai lekin agar yen majboot hota hai to market consolidation ya chhoti retracement dekh sakti hai filhal price action aur moving averages dono bullish bias dikhate hain aur jab tak price 50 EMA ke upar rehti hai tab tak buyers ka control qaim rehne ka imkaan hai agar RSI aur upar move karta hai to bullish momentum mazid strong ho sakta hai lekin agar RSI wapas 50 level ke neeche girta hai to bearish pressure barhne ka imkaan ho sakta hai traders ke liye behtareen strategy yeh ho sakti hai ke order block ke aas paas buying opportunities ko dekhain aur breakout confirmation ka intezar karain agar price support levels ko todti hai to bearish scenario ko consider karna zaroori hoga overall USD/JPY pair bullish trend mein hai lekin resistance zones par price action ka observation karna zaroori hai taake strong breakout aur reversal dono scenarios ko samjha ja sake.

USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum!
Khair, US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi gir kar 155.30 ki satah par pahunch gayi hai. Filhal, jodi 155.22 ki satah par trade kar rahi hai. Is kami ke piche muhrik Trump nahin balkeh Bank of Japan ka aaj ka sud ki sherah ka faislah hai. Markazi bank ne apni benchmark interest rate ko badha kar 0.5% kar diya, jo keh intehai kam sud ki sherah se dur jane ki simt me ek aur qadam hai. Mustaqbil me US Federal Reserve ki janib se sherah me kami ki tawaqqo ke sath, dollar/yen exchange rate me mazid kami waqe hogi. Market ab Bank of Japan ki press conference ka intezar kar rahi hain, jo subah 8:30 baje hone wali hai. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 152.88 ki support satah ko USD/JPY jodi ke liye hadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY iss time 155.07 par trade kar raha hai aur market H1 time frame par ek strong triple bottom level ke kareeb hai jo ek significant support zone hai yahan se price ka react karna expected hai kyunki triple bottom usually ek reversal pattern hota hai aur agar price is level se upar jata hai to bullish momentum wapas aa sakta hai RSI bhi 30 level ke pas hai jo oversold zone ko show karta hai iska matlab hai ke market mein short-term buying ka chance ban sakta hai agar price is level se bounce kar jata hai to pehla target 155.50 aur uske baad 156.00 ho sakta hai lekin agar price triple bottom tod deta hai to bearish breakout confirm hoga jo price ko 154.50 aur uske neeche 154.00 tak le ja sakta hai moving averages bhi dekhne wali baat hai kyunki agar price moving averages ke neeche hai to bearish trend dominate kar raha hai aur agar price inke upar close karta hai to bullish reversal ka signal milega filhal price action aur RSI ke signals short-term bullish bounce ka chance de rahe hain lekin market ka agla move is baat par depend karega ke price triple bottom ke level ko todta hai ya nahi agar price is level ke neeche close karta hai to selling ka pressure barh sakta hai lekin agar price sustain karta hai aur upward move dikhata hai to buying ke liye ek acha mauqa ho sakta hai stop loss triple bottom ke neeche 154.70 par lagana safe rahega aur take profit 155.50 aur 156.00 ke levels par focus karna chahiye overall market is waqt critical level par hai jahan se dono taraf ka move ho sakta hai lekin RSI ka oversold hona aur triple bottom ka banna buyers ke liye ek positive signal hai lekin traders ko is waqt cautious rehna chahiye aur price action ke confirmation ke bina trade nahi lena chahiye news events aur upcoming economic data ko bhi monitor karna zaroori hai kyunki yeh market ko effect kar sakte hain aur agle move ke liye direction de sakte hain proper risk management aur calculated entry ke sath hi trade karna safe rahega.

USD/JPY ke sellers ne price ko 158.00 sy bhi neeche laya aur thoda aur neeche bhi lekin pair ka overall trend abhi bhi bullish lagta hai.Jab tak price 156.00 ke neeche strongly break nahi karta selling ke options consider karna theek nahi hoga. Abhi tak market mein koi significant bearish signals nazar nahi aa rahe, aur buyers ne recent days mein price ko wapas 158.00 tak le jaane ki koshish ki hai.Yen ki taraf thodi stability dikhane ki koshish zarur hui hai lekin kisi substantial decline ke liye koi mazboot waja dikhai nahi de rahi.Is liye agar price thoda rollback karte hue 157.65 ke area tak aaye toh wahan se USD/JPY ka aage ka growth scenario relevant ban jata hai. Meri expectations abhi bhi unchanged hain aur mujhe lagta hai ke buyers pehle price ko 159.00 tak le jayenge, uske baad 160.00 aur phir 162.00-162.20 tak ka target achieve karne ki koshish hogi.Yeh sab tabhi possible hai agar koi unexpected news ya economic reports ke wajah se market ka mood na badle.Abhi ke liye USD/JPY pair ek range bound phase mein hai lekin main trend abhi bhi upward hi nazar aata hai.Pichle trading sessions mein humne dekha ke pair ne 158.00 ke upar consolidate karne ki koshish ki, lekin wo successful nahi raha.Is waqt 156.00 ke around ek platform bana hua hai aur mera maanna hai ke price neeche aakar wahan test karega lekin uske baad fir se recovery ki umeed hai. Saath hi yen abhi pressure mein hai kyunki dollar negative PPI data ke baad gir raha hai.Lekin yeh interesting baat hai ke USD/JPY pair mein iska zyada asar nahi hua.Yeh bhi important hoga ke US trading session kaise perform karta hai kyunki inflation reports aur Federal Reserve ki policies market ke direction mein significant changes la sakti hain.Main abhi ke price levels par buying ko attractive nahi samajhta, lekin agar price 158.50 ke upar jaye aur wahan stability dikhaye toh main wahan par selling ka sochunga.Mujhe lagta hai ke short term mein kuch pullbacks aa sakte hain lekin long term trend abhi bhi bullish hi lagta hai. Market mein trading karte waqt risk management aur patience bohot zaruri hai aur sab traders ko meri taraf se best of luck!
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جنوری 24 2025 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

آج لندن کے وقت صبح 3:00 بجے، بینک آف جاپان کی جانب سے شرح سود کو 0.25% سے بڑھا کر 0.50% کرنے کی توقع ہے۔ ساتھ والی پریس کانفرنس صبح 9:30 بجے شیڈول ہے، اور اس تقریب کے دوران کیے گئے تبصروں سے مارکیٹ کی نقل و حرکت پر نمایاں اثر پڑنے کا امکان ہے۔



موجودہ تکنیکی صورتحال گزشتہ دو ہفتوں کے دوران زیر بحث بنیادی منظر نامے کی حمایت جاری رکھے ہوئے ہے: امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا 154.56، 153.20، اور 151.92 پر نچلی سطحوں کو نشانہ بناتے ہوئے، روزانہ ٹائم فریم پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے گزرنے کی توقع ہے۔ ان سطحوں کو کل کے 156.76 کی بلند ترین سطح کو ظاہر کرنے کے لیے ایڈجسٹ کیا گیا ہے، جو کہ 15 نومبر کے بعد سے بلند ترین نقطہ ہے۔

اگر قیمت 160.20 کی مزاحمتی سطح سے اوپر ٹوٹ جاتی ہے تو ایک متبادل منظر نامہ ابھر سکتا ہے۔

چار- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت مرکزی بینک سے خبروں کا انتظار کر رہی ہے، فی الحال ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (155.60 پر) اور 156.76 کی مزاحمتی سطح کے درمیان تجارت کر رہی ہے۔ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے گرنا مزید نیچے کی طرف حرکت کا مشورہ دے گا۔ مزید برآں، مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کی طرف بریک آؤٹ کے لیے موزوں طور پر پوزیشن میں ہے، کیونکہ یہ نیوٹرل لائن کے قریب ہے اور ممکنہ طور پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے سگنل کے ساتھ سیدھ میں ہے۔ ہم اگلے اقدام کی تصدیق کے لیے بینک اف جاپان سے ایک قطعی سگنل تلاش کر رہے ہیں۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY

kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya hai, halaan ke US Dollar ne nayi 2 saal ki bulandi haasil ki hai. Traders ne Fed ke dovish bets ko upbeat US NFP data ki wajah se revise kar diya hai. Risk-aversion ka barhna JPY ki safe-haven demand ko mazboot kar raha hai. Monday ke European session mein USD/JPY pair kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat us waqt dekhi gayi jab US Dollar mazboot hai, jo ke Japanese Yen (JPY) ki taqat ko zyada darust dikhata hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko 6 major currencies ke against track karta hai, 110.00 se zyada ki 2 saal ki bulandi ko refresh kar raha hai.
Greenback is liye mazboot hai kyunke market experts ne iss saal ke interest rate cuts ki expectations ko revise kar diya hai. Macquarie ke analysts ke mutabiq, Fed iss saal sirf ek dafa borrowing rates ko cut karega, aur current interest rate cycle 4.00%-4.25% ke range mein bottom karega. Wazeh hai ke latest dot plot ke mutabiq, Fed officials iss saal do interest rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe the.
Market participants ne Friday ke upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ke baad Fed ke dovish bets ko reduce kar diya. NFP report ne dikhaya ke labor demand mazboot hai aur unemployment unexpected tor par kam hui. Iss hafte, investors ka focus US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data par hoga jo Wednesday ko publish hoga. Market participants inflation data ko gahri nazar se dekhenge, kyunke Fed policymakers ne hal hi mein iss baat par concern dikhaya hai ke inflationary pressures 2% ke target tak slowdown nahi ho raha.
Doosri taraf, Yen ki safe-haven appeal global uncertainty ki wajah se mazboot hui hai. Equities mein sharp girawat dekhi gayi hai risk-aversion mood ke chalte, jab US President-elect Donald Trump 20 January ko White House wapas aa rahe hain. Saath hi, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke zyada interest rate hikes ki expectations ne Japanese currency ko aur mazboot kiya hai. Traders umeed karte hain ke BoJ apne March meeting mein borrowing rates ko barhaye ga.

USD/JPY ka H4 timeframe chart iss waqt ek critical situation ko dikhata hai jo short-term aur long-term dono trends ke liye bohot significant hai. Sabse pehle, moving averages ka analysis karein toh white moving average ke neeche price ka girna short-term bearish pressure ko highlight karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke recent candles ne apni momentum lose kar li hai, lekin yellow moving average ke upar price ka rehna abhi tak long-term bullish trend ka signal de raha hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh market phir se bullish zone mein wapas ja sakti hai, magar agar yeh 200 MA ke neeche girti hai, toh long-term bearish scenario develop ho sakta hai. Chart mein Parabolic SAR ke dots bhi bohot meaningful signal de rahe hain. Pehle yeh dots price candles ke neeche thay, jo upward momentum ko indicate karte thay, lekin ab yeh candles ke upar aa gaye hain, jo downward momentum ka indicator hai. Yeh clearly batata hai ke market mein abhi short-term bearish pressure dominate kar raha hai. Neeche RSI ka indicator humein batata hai ke abhi RSI ka value 46 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Yeh na to overbought aur na hi oversold condition ko signal kar raha hai. Agar RSI 30 ke level ke kareeb aata hai, toh oversold condition develop ho sakti hai, jo ek potential buying opportunity create kar sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar RSI 70 ke upar jata hai, toh market overbought zone mein chali jayegi aur selling pressure barhne ka imkaan hoga. Yeh chart iss waqt ek consolidation phase ko dikhata hai jahan price ek decision-making point par hai. Agar price 50 MA ke upar recover kar leti hai, toh bullish momentum wapas aa sakta hai, lekin agar price 200 MA ke neeche break karti hai, toh yeh long-term bearish signal hoga. Traders ko iss waqt Parabolic SAR, RSI aur support/resistance levels par focus rakhte hue cautiously trade karna chahiye

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Umairafzal456
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USD/JPY is waqt 155.75 par trade kar raha hai aur H1 time frame par market ek consolidation phase se guzar rahi hai.RSI indicator 50 level ko touch kar raha hai jo market ke equilibrium zone ko dikhata hai na to ziada bullish momentum hai aur na hi bearish pressure dominate kar raha hai. Saath hi, price 50-period EMA ke qareeb hai, jo ek dynamic support aur resistance ka kaam kar sakti hai.Agar price EMA ke upar rehti hai aur RSI 50 ke upar breakout deta hai to bullish continuation ka imkaan barh sakta hai.Trend analysis se zahir hota hai ke market abhi tak apni trendline ke andar move kar rahi hai jo ek structured price action ka indication deti hai.Trendline ke andar rehna ka matlab hai ke market ek specific range follow kar rahi hai aur jab tak price trendline ke neeche break nahi karti tab tak bullish outlook barqarar reh sakta hai.Agar price trendline support ko test karti hai aur bullish rejection patterns jaise bullish engulfing ya pin bar dekhne ko milte hain to price dobara upside move kar sakti hai.Agar hum resistance aur support zones dekhein to 156.20 ka level ek immediate resistance hai jahan se pehle price reject hui thi.Agar price is level ko todti hai to further bullish momentum dekhne ko mil sakta hai jahan next target 156.80 tak ho sakta hai.Neeche ki taraf 155.50 ka support level critical hai jahan buyers enter kar sakte hain.Agar yeh level break hota hai to market neeche 155.00 tak gir sakti hai jo ek strong psychological support hai.
Fundamental tor par USD/JPY ka trend US aur Japan ke economic factors se bhi mutasir ho sakta hai jaise Federal Reserve ki monetary policy aur Bank of Japan ke interest rate decisions.Agar US dollar strong rehta hai to pair bullish rahega lekin agar yen strength dikhata hai to downside risk barh sakta hai.USD/JPY abhi ek consolidation phase mein hai aur RSI aur EMA ke kareeb hone ki wajah se market kisi bhi direction mein breakout kar sakti hai.Traders ko is waqt patience ke sath confirmation ka intezar karna chahiye aur support resistance levels ke around entries leni chahiye.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD JPY is Hafte Bare Breakout k Chance me Hai

Japanese yen kafi waqat se aik smooth ya horizontal zone mein movement kar raha hai. Kuch arsa pehle to 160 se bhi upper gaya tha lekin ab ye down hona shoro howa hai. Do maheene pehle to ye 142 tak bhi down howa tha lekin wapis bullish consultation me chala gaya. Yen-weakness prominent hai Euro aur British Pound ke muqable me, BoJ rate hike ke baad, aur USD/JPY ne 155.00 ke major support level ko barqarar rakha hai.

Japanese Yen Talking Points:

• USD/JPY ne iss hafte 155.00 handle ko defend karna jaari rakha, chaahe BoJ ne Thursday ko rate hike kiya ho.
• EUR/JPY aur GBP/JPY ne strong bullish weeks dikhaye, jahan pehla pair 160.00 level test karte hue dikhai diya aur dusra 190.00 level tak pohanch gaya.
• Agle hafte Japanese CPI headlines me hai Thursday afternoon ko, aur iske ilawa Canada, U.S., aur Europe ke rate decisions bhi radar par hain.
• Tuesday ke webinar me, mai in teen pairs ka tajziya karunga.

USD/JPY Weekly Overview
Ye hafte USD/JPY major FX pair me ek range-bound trading dekhi gayi, jabke Bank of Japan ne ek aur rate hike kiya. Pichle saal ke sell-off ke baad, jo September me bottom par tha, carry unwind ka dar barkarar hai, lekin USD/JPY pair abhi bhi kaafi elevated hai.

Iss hafte, 155.00 psychological level par do alag-alag dafa support dikhai diya. Thursday raat rate hike announcement ke baad kaafi vivid support test hua, jahan 155.00-155.38 zone me support lagataar chhe ghante tak raha, jab tak bulls prices ko upar dhakelne me kaamyab nahi ho gaye. Ye response unke liye counter-intuitive tha jo samajhte the ke rate hike JPY-strength ko barhawa dega.

USD/JPY Daily Analysis

Daily chart se dikhai deta hai ke ye hafte price movement indecisive rahi, chaahe BoJ rate hike ki news ayi ho. Is hafte ka price action mean-reverting raha, jahan support 155.00 par aur resistance 156.67 par dekha gaya, jo ke July-September ke pichle saal ke sell-off ka 76.4% Fibonacci retracement hai.

Deductively, ye market ke bad news ko shrug off karte hue strength aur higher-low banane ka signal deta hai. Lekin agle hafte FOMC rate decision aur Japan ke CPI data tone set karenge.

Key Levels for Next Week:

• Resistance: 157.17 (Fibonacci level), 158.88 (prior swing-high), aur uske upar 160.00 level.
• Support: 153.41 (61.8% retracement), aur niche 150.00-151.95 ka major decision point.

Iss waqt bulls ne line ko hold kiya hai, aur jab tak price ke backdrop me kuch badalta nahi, is fact ko respect karna chahiye.

USD/JPY Assalam Alaikum!
Khair, US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi gir kar 155.30 ki satah par pahunch gayi hai. Filhal, jodi 155.22 ki satah par trade kar rahi hai. Is kami ke piche muhrik Trump nahin balkeh Bank of Japan ka aaj ka sud ki sherah ka faislah hai. Markazi bank ne apni benchmark interest rate ko badha kar 0.5% kar diya, jo keh intehai kam sud ki sherah se dur jane ki simt me ek aur qadam hai. Mustaqbil me US Federal Reserve ki janib se sherah me kami ki tawaqqo ke sath, dollar/yen exchange rate me mazid kami waqe hogi. Market ab Bank of Japan ki press conference ka intezar kar rahi hain, jo subah 8:30 baje hone wali hai. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 152.88 ki support satah ko USD/JPY jodi ke liye hadaf ke taur
ar dekha ja sakta hai


.

USD/JPY
kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya hai, halaan ke US Dollar ne nayi 2 saal ki bulandi haasil ki hai. Traders ne Fed ke dovish bets ko upbeat US NFP data ki wajah se revise kar diya hai. Risk-aversion ka barhna JPY ki safe-haven demand ko mazboot kar raha hai. Monday ke European session mein USD/JPY pair kareeb 157.30 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat us waqt dekhi gayi jab US Dollar mazboot hai, jo ke Japanese Yen (JPY) ki taqat ko zyada darust dikhata hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko 6 major currencies ke against track karta hai, 110.00 se zyada ki 2 saal ki bulandi ko refresh kar raha hai.
Greenback is liye mazboot hai kyunke market experts ne iss saal ke interest rate cuts ki expectations ko revise kar diya hai. Macquarie ke analysts ke mutabiq, Fed iss saal sirf ek dafa borrowing rates ko cut karega, aur current interest rate cycle 4.00%-4.25% ke range mein bottom karega. Wazeh hai ke latest dot plot ke mutabiq, Fed officials iss saal do interest rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe the.
Market participants ne Friday ke upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ke baad Fed ke dovish bets ko reduce kar diya. NFP report ne dikhaya ke labor demand mazboot hai aur unemployment unexpected tor par kam hui. Iss hafte, investors ka focus US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data par hoga jo Wednesday ko publish hoga. Market participants inflation data ko gahri nazar se dekhenge, kyunke Fed policymakers ne hal hi mein iss baat par concern dikhaya hai ke inflationary pressures 2% ke target tak slowdown nahi ho raha.
Doosri taraf, Yen ki safe-haven appeal global uncertainty ki wajah se mazboot hui hai. Equities mein sharp girawat dekhi gayi hai risk-aversion mood ke chalte, jab US President-elect Donald Trump 20 January ko White House wapas aa rahe hain. Saath hi, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke zyada interest rate hikes ki expectations ne Japanese currency ko aur mazboot kiya hai. Traders umeed karte hain ke BoJ apne March meeting mein borrowing rates ko barhaye ga.

USD/CHF Ki Stability Aur Key Support Levels

Swiss National Bank Ka Interest Rate Cut


Swiss National Bank (SNB) ke Chairman Martin Schlegel ne ek aham interest rate cut ka elan kiya. Unhone kaha ke yeh qadam kam inflationary pressures ko counter karne ke liye uthaya gaya hai. Schlegel ne ye bhi zikar kiya ke SNB economic conditions ko nazar mein rakhe ga aur zaroorat parne par monetary policy ko adjust kare ga taake inflation ko ek stable range mein rakha ja sake.
U.S. Federal Reserve Ki Cautious Policy


Dousri taraf, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ka cautious rukh USD ki performance ke liye chinta ka sabab ban raha hai. Fed ki Governor Lisa Cook ne labor market ki mazbooti aur persistent inflation ka zikar kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke Fed shayad dheere dheere rate cuts ki taraf barhe ga. Aane wale dinon mein jab kai Fed officials bolne wale hain, to agar unke hawkish comments aaye to yeh U.S. Dollar ko near-term mein boost de sakta hai, khaaskar Swiss Franc (CHF) ke muqablay mein.
USD/CHF Ka Current Halat


USD/CHF ka jorha pichle session mein girne ke baad stability dikhata hai, aur yeh Friday ki raat ke late hours mein 0.9070 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Switzerland ki Real Retail Sales data ki release hui, jo ke 0.8% saal dar saal barh gayi, lekin yeh expectations aur pichli reading se kam thi, jo market mein caution ko barhawa de rahi hai. Ab traders Switzerland ke aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Foreign Currency Reserves par nazar rakh rahe hain taake mazeed clues mil sakein.
Key Support Level


USD/CHF ke liye key support level 0.9050 hai, aur is threshold ke upar rehna is ke liye bohot zaroori hai taake is ki upward movement ka silsila jari rahe. Agar yeh 0.9050 ke neeche girta hai, to yeh pair par mazeed downward pressure daal sakta hai, jo ise 0.9010 zone ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Aane wale haftay mein, USD/CHF ke liye expected trading range 0.8900 support aur 0.9250 resistance ke beech hai, aur Average True Range (ATR) mein bearish wave yeh darshata hai ke mazeed downside ki sambhavnayein hain.

USD/JPY ka Jaiza: Haal ke Tehreek aur Market Par Asrat
Maujooda Market Ka Jaiza


USD/JPY currency pair mein haal hi mein girawat dekhi gayi hai, jo lagbhag 157.30 tak gir gayi hai, halan ke US Dollar ne naye 2 saal ke bulandiyon ko chhua. Yeh ajeeb tehreek is wajah se samjhi ja rahi hai ke traders ab dovish expectations ko dubara assess kar rahe hain, jo Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawale se thi, khas kar US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) ke data ke upbeat hone ki waja se. Risk aversion ke barhne ne Japanese Yen (JPY) ki demand ko safe-haven currency ke taur par mazbooti di hai.
US Dollar Ki Mazbooti


US Dollar ki mazbooti ka saboot US Dollar Index (DXY) ke 110.00 se upar jaane se milta hai, jo ke naye 2 saal ke peak ko darust karta hai. Market experts ne Fed ke is saal ke interest rate cuts ke hawale se expectations ko revise kiya hai aur ab sirf ek cut ka intezar hai. Macquarie ke analysts ka kehna hai ke Fed apne borrowing rates ko 4.00%-4.25% ke darmiyan rakhega, jo ke pehle ke projections se zyada ehtiyati approach hai jo 2 rate cuts ko shamil karti thi.



NFP Data Ka Asar


Naye NFP report ne strong labor demand aur unemployment mein unexpected kami highlight ki hai, jiski wajah se market participants ne Fed ki policy expectations ko adjust kiya hai. Is hafte, investors US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo Wednesday ko release hoga. Inflation data ka ghoor se jaiza liya jayega, kyon ke Fed policymakers ne concern show kiya hai ke inflationary pressures abhi tak 2% ke target ki taraf slow down nahi kar rahe.
Japanese Yen Ki Safe-Haven Appeal


Doosri taraf, Japanese Yen ki safe-haven currency ke taur par appeal global uncertainties ki wajah se mazboot hui hai. Equity markets mein tezi se girawat ne risk aversion ko barhaya hai, khaas kar jab January 20 ko US President-elect Donald Trump White House wapas aane wale hain. Iske ilawa, Bank of Japan (BoJ) se higher interest rates ki umeed ne Yen ko aur mazbooti di hai, kyon ke traders anticipate kar rahe hain ke BoJ apni March meeting mein rate hike karega.
Natija


Aakhir mein, USD/JPY pair ki recent girawat ke bawajood strong US Dollar is baat ko zahir karti hai ke market sentiment aur economic data ka asar ho raha hai. US labor market ki mazbooti, inflation concerns, aur Japanese monetary policy expectations ke darmiyan ka interplay is currency pair ko shakal de raha hai, jo agle kuch hafton ke liye traders ke liye ek ahem focus ban gaya hai.

Resistance levels 157.18, 157.61, aur 158.05 bullish traders ke liye significant milestones hain. Yeh levels sirf profit-taking opportunities nahi balki woh barriers bhi hain jo upward momentum ko rok sakti hain agar selling pressure wapas aaye. Downside par, agar price 155.24 se neeche girti hai to bullish outlook invalid ho jayegi, jo 154.52 aur 154.09 ki taraf girawat ka rasta khol sakti hai. Yeh broader market sentiment mein girawat ko reflect karega, jo macroeconomic events ya global risk dynamics ke shifts se mutasir hoga.

Traders ko chahiye ke wo technical aur fundamental analysis ka combination use karein aur apni strategies mein potential volatility ko shamil karein. Stop-loss orders jaise tools ko leverage karte huye, market participants risk ko manage kar sakte hain aur potential market moves se faida uthane ke liye apne positions ko behtareen tareeke se place kar sakte hain.

. USD/CHF Ki Stability Aur Key Support Levels

Swiss National Bank Ka Interest Rate Cut


Swiss National Bank (SNB) ke Chairman Martin Schlegel ne ek aham interest rate cut ka elan kiya. Unhone kaha ke yeh qadam kam inflationary pressures ko counter karne ke liye uthaya gaya hai. Schlegel ne ye bhi zikar kiya ke SNB economic conditions ko nazar mein rakhe ga aur zaroorat parne par monetary policy ko adjust kare ga taake inflation ko ek stable range mein rakha ja sake.
U.S. Federal Reserve Ki Cautious Policy


Dousri taraf, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) ka cautious rukh USD ki performance ke liye chinta ka sabab ban raha hai. Fed ki Governor Lisa Cook ne labor market ki mazbooti aur persistent inflation ka zikar kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke Fed shayad dheere dheere rate cuts ki taraf barhe ga. Aane wale dinon mein jab kai Fed officials bolne wale hain, to agar unke hawkish comments aaye to yeh U.S. Dollar ko near-term mein boost de sakta hai, khaaskar Swiss Franc (CHF) ke muqablay mein.
USD/CHF Ka Current Halat


USD/CHF ka jorha pichle session mein girne ke baad stability dikhata hai, aur yeh Friday ki raat ke late hours mein 0.9070 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Switzerland ki Real Retail Sales data ki release hui, jo ke 0.8% saal dar saal barh gayi, lekin yeh expectations aur pichli reading se kam thi, jo market mein caution ko barhawa de rahi hai. Ab traders Switzerland ke aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Foreign Currency Reserves par nazar rakh rahe hain taake mazeed clues mil sakein.
Key Support Level


USD/CHF ke liye key support level 0.9050 hai, aur is threshold ke upar rehna is ke liye bohot zaroori hai taake is ki upward movement ka silsila jari rahe. Agar yeh 0.9050 ke neeche girta hai, to yeh pair par mazeed downward pressure daal sakta hai, jo ise 0.9010 zone ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Aane wale haftay mein, USD/CHF ke liye expected trading range 0.8900 support aur 0.9250 resistance ke beech hai, aur Average True Range (ATR) mein bearish wave yeh darshata hai ke mazeed downside ki sambhavnayein hain.

USD/CHF

Fundamental Outlook (Bunyadi Tanazur)


Aane wale dino mein, Bank of Japan (BoJ) aur Federal Reserve par nazar rehna zaroori hai. BoJ abhi tak apni policy ko sakhth karne mein hesitant hai, magar agar koi achanak hawkish shift hoti hai to yen ki qeemat mein izafa ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, FOMC ki rate decision (31 Jan) aur Non-Farm Payrolls (2 Feb) USD ki harkat ko mutasir karenge. Agar Fed rate cuts ko delay karne ka ishara deta hai, to USD/JPY mazboot reh sakta hai, lekin kamzor job data dollar par pressure daal sakta hai. Market sentiment bhi ek aham pehlu hai—agar risk aversion ka mahal banta hai to yen ko safe-haven demand mil sakti hai. Iske ilawa, duniya ki ma'ashi growth ke masail yen ki demand ko barha sakte hain, khaaskar agar US mein slowdown ki nishaniyan nazar aati hain.
Technical Outlook (Fanni Tanazur)


Resistance: 149.80 – 150.20 (psychological level, jo recent highs ke aas-paas hai)
Support: 147.50 – 147.00 (jahan buyers aane ki umeed hai)

Indicators:

• RSI 60 ke aas-paas hai, jo halka bullish momentum dikhata hai.
• 50-day MA lagbhag 148.00 par support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai.
• MACD positive hai lekin consolidation ki nishani de raha hai.

Price action in levels ke aas-paas yeh darshata hai ke agar koi catalyst nahi milta to yeh range-bound movement dekh sakta hai.
Critical Range (Ahem Daaira)


Main 148.00 – 150.00 ko ek ahem daaira samajhta hoon. Agar Fed hawkish stance rakhta hai, to USD/JPY 150.00 tak ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, kamzor NFP data ya BoJ ki tightening ka ishara USD ko 147.00 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Main kisi bhi geopolitical ya ma'ashi updates par bhi nazar rakh raha hoon jo global risk sentiment ko mutasir kar sakti hain, kyunki yeh aksar yen mein volatility paida karte hain.
Conclusion (Nateejah)


Jab hum naye hafte ki taraf barh rahe hain, main yeh dekh raha hoon ke market sentiment kaise evolve hota hai, khaaskar aane wale data ke jawab mein. Main in key levels par nazar rakhoonga taake hafte ke dauran apne strategy ko dobara assess kar sakoon.