USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Fed aur BoJ ke Faislay FX Market Volatility ko Tez Karenge

Do central banks aur ek faislay ka hafta USD/JPY ke liye faisla karnay wala hai. Jese hi Fed aur BoJ policy set karte hain kuch ghanton ke farq se, is pair ka 2025 ka trajectory tay hoga.


Highlights:

• Fed aur BoJ ke rate decisions kuch ghanton ke farq se aayenge, USD/JPY mein volatility ko drive karenge.
• 25bps ka Fed cut widely expected hai, lekin focus updated rate projections par shift hoga.
• BoJ ka rate move uncertain hai, 15bps se zyada ka hike yen ke liye positive ho sakta hai.
• Rising US Treasury yields USD/JPY ke upside momentum ko support karte hain.

Overview:


2024 ka aakhri kaam ka hafta USD/JPY traders ke liye pivotal hai, jahan Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke interest rate decisions kuch ghanton ke farq se aayenge. Yeh dono events baqi saari data releases, jaise ke Fed ka core PCE deflator (jo Friday ko release hoga), ke upar overshadow karenge. Market in faislon ka reaction 2025 ke USD/JPY trajectory ko define karega.


Central Bank Decisions Collide:


Yeh raha aglay hafte ke major events ka calendar (US Eastern time ke mutabiq):

• Tuesday: US retail sales aur PCE reports, jo US economy ke health ke baray mein updates denge.
• Wednesday: Fed interest rate decision, jo USD/JPY ke liye bohot ahm hoga.
• Thursday: BoJ ka rate decision, jo volatility trigger karega.

Hawkish Fed Cut ki Umeed?


Ek 25bps ka Fed cut near-certainty hai, lekin market movements Fed ke updated economic aur interest rate projections par depend karenge. Fed chairman Jerome Powell ne last month kaha tha ke labour market ke downside risks kam hain lekin inflation anticipated se zyada persistent hai. Yeh remarks ek hawkish cut ki umeed barhate hain.


September mein, Fed ne 100bps ke rate cuts aur neutral rate 2.9% project ki thi, jo ab overly dovish lagti hain. Aane wale projection mein sirf 2 ya 1 rate cut ki signal di ja sakti hai. Agar Fed 4 rate cuts project karta hai, toh yeh inflation ke khilaf fight khatam karne ke irade par concerns ko barha sakta hai.


Agar long-run dot (median FOMC estimate) 3% ya us se upar shift hota hai, toh US Treasury yields sharply rise karenge, aur yen par pressure barhega.


Bond Traders ke Analysis:


US interest rate futures positioning ek hawkish adjustment ka signal dete hain.


10-year Treasury note future ne decisively rollover kiya hai, aur momentum downside par hai. Is ka matlab rising US Treasury yields aur yen ke against US dollar ki strength hai.


BoJ ka Asar Jaldi Fade Ho Sakta Hai:


BoJ ka decision Thursday ko USD/JPY mein sharp volatility la sakta hai. Agar BoJ 15bps se zyada ka hike karta hai, toh yen strengthen hoga aur USD/JPY downside par jayega. Agar rates unchanged rahte hain, toh ek quick upside reaction ki umeed hai.


Lekin long-term mein, US rate outlook abhi bhi USD/JPY movements ka dominant driver rahega. BoJ ke decision ke initial volatility ke baad, US Treasury yields dobara dominate karenge.


Higher US Yields aur USD/JPY ka Upside:


Daily chart par higher US Treasury yields ka asar obvious hai, jahan USD/JPY ne apna upward push resume kiya hai. Momentum indicators jaise ke RSI aur MACD bullish signals de rahe hain.




Resistance levels:


153.80
155.89

156.75


Support levels:


200DMA
151 (uptrend support)
148.65


Trading ke liye best of luck, aur 2024 ke weekly outlook guides par padhne ka shukriya. Coverage January 2025 ke mid se dobara shuru hogi.

USD/JPY H4 Timeframe Analysis:
USD/JPY ka chart hume ek clear bullish trend dikhata hai jahan price steadily upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Current price 153.60 ke aas paas trade ho rahi hai aur candles ka pattern buyers ki strength ko reflect kar raha hai. Is chart par dekha jaye toh 152.85 ka level ek key resistance tha jo ab tod diya gaya hai. Yeh breakout market ke andar buyers ke strong control ka signal deta hai.
Price Movement aur Trend:
H4 timeframe par lagataar green candles nazar aa rahi hain, jo upward momentum ko confirm kar rahi hain. Yeh movement is baat ka indication hai ke market mein demand zyada hai aur sellers abhi weak nazar aa rahe hain. Upward movement ke dauran price ne strong pullbacks nahi diye, jo trend ke continuation ka support karta hai.
Support aur Resistance Levels:

• Current Support: Neeche ka support 152.85 ke qareeb ban raha hai, jo pehle resistance tha.
• Resistance: Agla resistance level 153.80 ke aas paas hai. Agar price is level ko todti hai, toh USD/JPY 154.20 tak ja sakti hai.

ATR Indicator Analysis:
Chart ke neeche ATR (Average True Range) indicator bhi nazar aa raha hai jo volatility ko measure karta hai. ATR ke mutabiq, price ki volatility mein kuch kami ayi hai. Jab volatility low hoti hai toh price consolidation ka chance barh jata hai ya phir ek strong breakout ki tayyari hoti hai. Is wajah se traders ko breakout zones par nazar rakhni chahiye.
Key Observations aur Trading Strategy:

1. Price ka overall structure bullish hai lekin 153.80 par resistance hai. Is resistance ke todne par agla target 154.20 ho sakta hai.
2. Agar price neeche girti hai aur 152.85 ka support todti hai, toh short-term downward correction ki umeed ho sakti hai.
3. ATR ki low volatility price action ke stability ko dikhati hai.

Conclusion:
USD/JPY ka trend abhi buyers ke haq mein hai aur breakout zones par focus karna zaroori hoga. Safe trading ke liye confirmation ka wait karein aur stop loss ko zaroor use karein. Market ki volatility aur price action ke mutabiq strategy adjust karna behtareen hoga.

"USD/JPY ke daily chart ke mutabiq price abhi 153.635 par trade kar raha hai. Price ne recently ek acchi bullish momentum dikhai hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke buyers market ko control kar rahe hain. Chart par dekhne se yeh nazar aata hai ke agla strong resistance level 156.589 ke qareeb hai. Agar price is level ko todta hai aur upar close deta hai, to upward trend mazeed mazboot ho sakta hai aur nayi highs dekhne ko mil sakti hain۔ Is se pehle price ne October aur November ke mahine mein is level ke qareeb aakar rejection face ki thi, jis ke baad correction hui. Lekin ab price ne wapas upward move kiya hai aur moving averages ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ek bullish signal hai. Moving averages ka direction upward hai aur price un ke upar sustain kar raha hai, jo market ke positive sentiment ko reflect karta hai۔

Agar price ko neeche ki taraf dekha jaye, to pehla support level 146.516 ke aas paas hai. Yeh level October ke doran ek strong demand zone tha jahan se price ne rebound kiya tha. Is support ka todna market ke bullish momentum ko thoda weak kar sakta hai۔ Chart par RSI indicator ka value 60.36 par hai, jo neutral se bullish zone mein aata hai. Yeh batata hai ke abhi price overbought nahi hai, aur mazeed upward movement ke liye jagah mojood hai. Lekin agar RSI 70 ke upar jata hai, to market ke overbought hone ke chances barh jate hain, jahan se ek correction expect ki ja sakti hai۔ Summary ke tor par, agar price resistance 156.589 todta hai, to market bullish direction mein nayi highs dikhane ke liye tayar ho sakta hai. Lekin agar rejection hoti hai, to support level 146.516 ke aas paas correction ka samna ho sakta hai. Trader ko zaroori hai ke risk management ka khayal rakhte hue entry aur exit points plan karein, aur confirmation ke saath hi trades lagayein۔"

USD/JPY Weekly Analysis
USD/JPY ka weekly chart dekh kar maloom hota hai ke price ne strong downtrend ke baad ab upar ki taraf recovery start kar di hai. Pehle price ne lower levels par support find kiya aur wahan se bullish candles develop hui hain, jo short-term mein upward momentum ki taraf ishara kar rahi hain.
Price Movement
Chart par nazar aata hai ke price neeche aane ke baad ek demand zone se bounce kiya hai. Yeh bounce significant hai kyun ke price ab moving averages (red lines) ke kareeb hai. Yeh moving averages price ke neeche hain, jo long-term bearish trend ko indicate karte hain, lekin short-term mein price ki direction ab bullish lag rahi hai.
Agar price yeh bullish momentum maintain karta hai, to agla resistance level tak pohonch sakta hai, jo ke 132.50 ke aas paas hai. Agar price yeh level tod deta hai, to market mein aur bullish strength aa sakti hai. Dusri taraf, neeche ki taraf strong support level 127.50 ke kareeb hai, jo buyers ke liye critical zone hai.
MACD Indicator
Chart ke neeche MACD histogram clearly show kar raha hai ke selling pressure kam hota ja raha tha. Ab histogram mein bullish momentum ka signal dikh raha hai. Yeh crossover bullish direction ka ishara hai aur indicate karta hai ke short-term mein price aur upar ja sakta hai. MACD ka ye reversal important hai kyun ke yeh buying opportunities ke liye traders ko confidence deta hai.
Trading Strategy

• Short-term View: Agar bullish candles continue hoti hain, to short-term traders ke liye yeh buy karne ka mauqa ho sakta hai. Targets ke liye 132.50 ka level nazar mein rakhna zaroori hai.
• Long-term View: Jab tak price moving averages ke upar close nahi karta, tab tak long-term trend abhi bhi bearish mana jayega. Isliye long-term buyers ko thoda wait and see approach adopt karni hogi.
• Risk Management: Neeche ke support level 127.50 ke neeche stop-loss lagana safe rahega taake risk control mein ho.

Conclusion
USD/JPY ke chart par short-term bullish momentum nazar aa raha hai, lekin long-term trend abhi bearish hai. Next resistance ka todna zaroori hai taake price aur strength gain kare.

USD/JPY kaafi interesting movements dikhata nazar aa raha hai, jahan U.S. aur Japan ki monetary policies ke darmiyan bara tafreeq hai. U.S. economy apni mazbooti barqarar rakhe hue hai, jahan employment aur consumer spending ke numbers mazid strength ka signal dete hain. Federal Reserve abhi bhi hawkish stance rakhta hai, agarche agle saal ke liye rate cuts ka hint diya gaya hai. Doosri taraf, Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose policy par qaim hai, jiski wajah se yen kamzor hai aur dollar ka faida uthaya ja raha hai. Yeh policy tafreeq dollar ko support kar raha hai, aur market har economic data ka intezar kar raha hai jo is gap ko mazid barhawa de.Technical analysis ke lehaz se, USD/JPY ek steady uptrend mein hai, jahan price key support levels ke upar trade kar raha hai. Hal-filhal, pair 153.50 aur 153.80 ke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai, aur agar price 153.80 ke upar breakout kar leta hai to agla target 154.00 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price fail karta hai to 153.50 ka support zone action mein aa sakta hai, jo neeche ke levels ko bhi test karne ka chance de sakta hai agar dollar ka momentum kamzor padta hai.Market sentiment cautiously optimistic hai, jahan dollar ki higher-yielding currency ki appeal capital attract kar rahi hai. Fed ki rate policy aur U.S. economy ki mazbooti dollar ke liye favorable backdrop create kar rahi hai. Lekin global risk sentiment ya unexpected U.S. economic data ki wajah se direction mein achanak tabdeelion ka dar abhi bhi hai. Globally, economic landscape mixed hai. U.S. resilience show kar raha hai, jabke Japan low inflation aur sluggish growth se joojh raha hai. Yen par pressure tab aur barhta hai jab domestic economy ke challenges aur BoJ ki policy tighten karne ki reluctance samne aati hai. Agle kuch hafte dono mulkon ke economic reports kaafi pivotal honge jo USD/JPY ke agle steps decide karenge.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum!
US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi 153.74 ki muzahmati satah ko tod chuki hai aur ab is ke ooper mushtahkam hone ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yah kamyab ho jata hai to, ham 155.79 ki muzahmati satah tak musalsal rally ki tawaqqo kar sakte hain. False breakout ki surat me, aap ko market me dakhil hone ke liye jaldi nahin karni chahiye. Ooper ka rujhan barqarar hai. Kuch aise ishare hain jo mumkena izafe ki taraf ishara karte hain, chahe qimat piche hatt jaye aur 153.74 ki satah se niche gir jaye. Yah bat qabile gaur hai keh aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me aidad o shumar ka ek batch shamil hai jo Americi dollar ki harkiyat aur natije ke taur par dollar/yen ki jodi ko mutassir kar sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

BOJ Conference ki Waja se Yen Musalsal Teesre Hafte se Loss mein Hai

Yen ne Asian trade ke douran Monday ko major rivals ke muqable mein girawat dekhi, aur USD ke against chhatti martaba lagatar girawat ke sath teen hafton ki neechi satah tak pahunch gaya. Ye girawat Bank of Japan (BOJ) ke 2024 ke latest policy meeting ke shuru hone ke foran baad hui.
Media reports ke mutabiq, umeed hai ke BOJ interest rates ko barqarar rakhega, kyonke inflationary pressures ab stabilize ho chuke hain aur yen mein hal hi mein mazbooti dekhi gayi hai. Lekin, US ke 10-year treasury yields ke upar jaane se aur Federal Reserve ke aanewale monetary policy meeting ke pehle, yen par mazeed pressure dekha gaya hai.

USD/JPY ka Hal
USD/JPY rate mein 0.25% ka izafa dekhne ko mila aur ye 153.97 yen per dollar tak pohanch gaya, jo November 26 ke baad se sabse uncha satah hai. Session ke dauran sabse kam satah 153.32 dekha gaya.
Pichle Jumme ko yen ne dollar ke muqable mein 0.65% ki girawat dekhi, jo US treasury yields ke barhne aur December mein BOJ rate hike ke chances kam hone ki wajah se tha.
Yen ne pichle hafte 2.4% ka nuqsan uthaya, jo ke lagatar dosre hafte girawat ka signal hai, aur yeh girawat sabse zyada widening yield gap ki wajah se hui, jo Japan aur US ke darmiyan hai.

Bank of Japan Ki Position
Reuters ke mutabiq, BOJ ke andar abhi bhi interest rates par consensus nahi hai. Bank ke kuch members ka kehna hai ke abhi Japan rate hike ke liye tayar nahi hai, jabke kuch ka maanna hai ke December mein ye step lena zaruri ho sakta hai.

Sources ke mutabiq, BOJ abhi bhi foreign risks aur domestic wages forecasts ka tahqiq kar raha hai. Ek senior BOJ source ne bataya ke “Japan ke liye abhi kisi fori rate hike ki zarurat nahi hai. Humein mazeed data ka jaiza lene ke liye waqt chahiye.”

Is report ke baad, BOJ ke taraf se agle hafta 0.25% rate hike ke chances 65% se gir kar 25% tak pohanch gaye.

US Treasury Yields Aur Federal Reserve Ka Asar
US 10-year treasury yields ab teen hafton ki buland satah 4.407% par hain, jo dollar ko mazbooti de rahe hain.
Is dauran, Federal Reserve apni monetary policy meeting ke liye tayari kar raha hai. Expected hai ke Fed apne rates ko teesri martaba kam karega, magar agle saal ke liye interest rate cuts ke aahista pace ka signal bhi de sakta hai, jo greenback ko mazeed stability dega.

USD/JPY Ki Technical Analysis

Daily Chart
Daily chart mein USD/JPY ne $140.40 aur $149.20 ke daily support levels se rebound kiya hai aur ab upward trade kar raha hai.
50-day SMA ka 200-day SMA ke upar cross hona ye signal deta hai ke upward momentum barqarar reh sakta hai. RSI ka mid-level ke upar hona positive momentum ka indication hai.
Filhal, USD/JPY ka immediate resistance $156.30 par hai. Agar ye level break ho gaya to currency pair mazeed upar ja sakta hai.



4-Hour Chart
4-hour chart par USD/JPY mein support region ke baad bullish rebound dekha gaya hai. Is bullish move ko inverted head-and-shoulders pattern ne support kiya hai, jo short-term mein mazeed positive momentum ka ishara deta hai.
Immediate resistance levels $155.80 aur $156.30 ke zones mein hain. Magar RSI ke overbought level ke kareeb hone ki wajah se short correction ki umeed hai. Correction ke baad upward momentum ka silsila jari reh sakta hai.



Yen Ke Zawaal Ke Asbaab Aur Asrat
Yen ki girawat ka sabse bara sabab Japan aur US ke beech ka widening yield gap hai. Jab tak Japan ki economy sustainable growth aur wage hikes ke mazboot asbaab nahi paida karti, BOJ ke liye interest rates badhana mushkil hoga. Wahan, US treasury yields aur Federal Reserve ke comparatively aggressive stance ka faida dollar ko ho raha hai.

Japan Ki Strategy
BOJ ki policy abhi bhi “wait and watch” par mabni hai, kyonke Japan ke decision-makers hal philhal mein inflationary pressures ke stabilize hone par mazeed data ka jaiza lena chahte hain.
Halankeh kuch economists ka kehna hai ke yen ki lagatar weakness se import costs aur inflationary concerns mazeed barh sakte hain, jis ki wajah se BOJ par pressure barhne ki umeed hai.

Global Trade Par Asar
Yen ke kamzor hone ka asar Japan ki export-driven economy ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai, lekin lagatar kamzori se global trade imbalance ke risks bhi barh sakte hain. US dollar ki mazbooti se emerging economies par bhi pressure aata hai, jo apne debts dollar mein chukate hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

BoJ Rate Hike in Focus: USD/JPY

Markets abhi less than 20% chance price kar rahe hain ke BoJ rate hike karega iss Thursday, jab ke pehle expectations 70% probability thi. JPY ki weakness wapas aa gayi hai jab rate hike expectations kam hui hain, jo BoJ ko action lene par majboor kar sakti hai. USD/JPY strong bullish momentum dikhata hai, magar BoJ ka surprise hike significant decline laa sakta hai. Agar BoJ rate hike karta hai, toh JPY significant strengthen kar sakta hai, aur GBP ke against zyada gains ke chances hain compare to USD.

Bank of Japan: Hike kare ya nahi?
Bank of Japan (BoJ) iss hafte spotlight mein hai aur US aur UK ke central bank meetings ke bawajood center stage le sakta hai. BoJ ki much-anticipated policy normalization ho sakti hai, isliye iss week ki meeting itni important hai.

BoJ ne pichle kuch months se policy mein aggressive shift ka signal diya hai. 2024 mein BoJ ne apni monetary policy mein kayi changes kiye. July mein, BoJ ne apna policy rate 0.25% tak increase kiya aur Quantitative aur Qualitative Monetary Easing ke Yield Curve Control framework ko discontinue kiya.

Do haftay pehle, markets 70% probability price kar rahe the ek 25bps hike ki, jo mujhe tab ajeeb laga kyun ke BoJ apni indecisive nature ke liye mashhoor hai. Magar pichle do hafton mein reports ne market ko yeh believe karwa diya hai ke ab sirf 20% chance hai ke Bank of Japan iss Thursday 0.25% ka rate hike karega.

BoJ aksar surprises deta hai jab koi expect nahi karta. Ek key issue pichle kuch mahino mein JPY ki weakness hai, jo pichle do hafton mein wapas aayi hai jab market expectations kam ho gayi hain.

USD/JPY psychological 155.00 handle ke kareeb hai. Kya BoJ action lega? Meri rai yeh hai ke BoJ ab hold karega aur naya saal shayad hike ke liye chunega. Magar ek surprise possible hai aur yeh cheez iss hafte ki meeting ko aur bhi exciting banati hai.

US Federal Reserve aur Bank of England ki meetings bhi hain jo volatility ko stir kar sakti hain aur USD/JPY aur GBP/JPY ko impact kar sakti hain. Consensus hai ke Fed 25 bps cut karega aur Bank of England apne rates hold karega.

Agar BoJ surprise kare aur 25 bps ka rate hike kare, toh Yen significantly strengthen kar sakta hai, aur GBP ke against zyada gains ke chances hain compare to US Dollar. Yeh is wajah se ke US Dollar ki strength 2025 tak barkarar rehne ke chances hain. US Treasury yields ke 2025 mein badhne ki umeed hai, jo yeh narrative support karta hai ke GBP/JPY par BoJ hike ka zyada asar hoga.

Technical Analysis

Technical perspective se dekha jaye, USD/JPY ne December 3 ko 148.600 handle par bottom karne ke baad strong upside move ki hai.

Yeh move tezi se hua hai, aur descending trendline break karne ke baad momentum gain hua. Abhi ke liye, bulls firmly control mein lagte hain, FOMC aur BoJ meetings se pehle.

50-day MA abhi 100-day MA ke cross hone ki tayyari kar raha hai, jo ek golden cross pattern hint kar sakta hai aur aur zyada upside ki taraf ishara karta hai. Yeh ek lagging indicator hai magar yeh bullish momentum ko demonstrate karta hai jo December ke mahine mein USD/JPY mein build hua.

Historically, BoJ ne kabhi kabhi rhetoric ka sahara liya hai exchange rate ko control karne ke liye, magar yeh tactic ab kaam nahi karta. Shayad central bank yeh approach iss meeting ke liye wapas lana chahta ho.

Chart ko dekhte hue, inner aur outer ascending trendlines iss week mein opportunity present kar sakti hain.

Agar BoJ hike kare, toh USD/JPY outer trendline ki taraf gir sakta hai aur 150.00 se neeche ja sakta hai. Immediate support 153.500 par hai, uske baad 151.80 aur 150.00 handles aate hain.

Immediate resistance 155.00 handle par hai, aur agar yeh level tod diya jaye, toh swing high 156.500 ka target ho sakta hai.

Japanese Yen Daily Chart aur US Retail Sales
US session par focus karte hain, retail sales data Fed rate path ko influence kar sakta hai. Agar retail sales zyada ho, toh inflation ka pressure barh sakta hai, aur January 2025 ke Fed rate cut ke chances kam ho sakte hain.

Zyada hawkish Fed rate path USD/JPY ko 154.5 resistance level tak le ja sakta hai. 154.5 todne ke baad bulls 156.884 resistance level ka target kar sakte hain.

Agar retail sales unexpectedly gir jaye, toh January Fed rate cut bets wapas aa sakti hain, aur pair 50-day aur 200-day EMAs ke neeche gir sakta hai. EMAs ke neeche girne ki surat mein, agla key support level 149.358 hoga.

USD/JPY Daily Technical Analysis
USD/JPY ka chart dekh kar yeh samajh aata hai ke market ne achi recovery dikhayi hai aur ab price bullish zone mein dikh rahi hai. Chart par Moving Average (MA 50) ke upar close hona buyers ki strength ka signal hai, jo ke market ke upward momentum ko confirm kar raha hai.
Current Situation:
Abhi price 154.15 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, jo ek important resistance level hai. Agar yeh level tod diya jata hai, toh agla target 154.50 aur phir 155.00 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Neeche ka support level 152.80 - 153.00 ke kareeb hai, jahan buyers wapis enter kar sakte hain. Yeh area critical hai, kyun ke agar price iss level ke neeche jata hai toh correction ka shuru hona mumkin hai.
MACD Indicator:
Chart par neeche MACD indicator ka histogram positive side par hai, jo bullish momentum aur strength ko support kar raha hai. MACD ka yeh signal confirm karta hai ke price ke upward continuation ke chances zyada hain, lekin agar resistance ke aas paas rejection milta hai toh thodi si sideways ya corrective movement ho sakti hai.
Key Levels:

• Resistance: 154.15 ke upar ka break market ko 155.00 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.
• Support: 152.80 ka level price ke neeche girne ki surat mein important hai. Iske neeche girawat ki guzarish shuru ho sakti hai.

Trading Strategy:

• Buy Setup: Agar price 154.15 ke resistance ke upar close kar leti hai, toh yeh bullish continuation ka signal hoga. Target rakhein 154.50 - 155.00 ke liye.
• Sell Setup: Neeche girawat sirf tab consider karein jab price 152.80 ke neeche sustain kare. Is case mein short positions ke targets 152.30 - 151.50 ho sakte hain.

Conclusion:
Abhi ke liye USD/JPY ka trend bullish hai aur buyers ke paas advantage hai. Lekin resistance todne par hi upward momentum confirm hoga. Safe trading ke liye risk management aur stop loss ka istemal zaroor karein taake market ke reversals ka asar kam ho.

دسمبر 17 2024 کے لیے امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑی نے 153.60 کی کلیدی مزاحمتی سطح کو کامیابی سے توڑا اور 154.72 کی درمیانی سطح تک پہنچ گیا۔ اس سطح پر قابو پانے سے قیمت 156.79 کی طرف بڑھے گی۔ تاہم، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی ریڈنگ سے پتہ چلتا ہے کہ ڈالر کی رفتار کمزور ہو رہی ہے۔



بنیادی منظر نامہ اب 152.16 پر انٹرمیڈیٹ سپورٹ کو توڑنے کے بعد 150.83 کی طرف مزید نیچے کی حرکت کے ساتھ 153.60 سے نیچے قیمت کی واپسی کا مشورہ دیتا ہے۔ 150.83 کی سطح کی اہمیت کو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے قریب آنے سے تقویت ملتی ہے۔ دیکھنے کے لیے اہم واقعات کل فیڈرل ریزرو کی میٹنگ اور جمعرات کو بینک آف جاپان کی میٹنگ رہیں گی۔

٤- گھنٹے کے ٹائم فریم میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر کا لمبا کنسولیڈیشن مرکزی منظر نامے کے طور پر قیمت کے الٹ جانے کی تجویز کرتا ہے۔ 153.60 سے نیچے ایک ٹھوس حرکت اس الٹ جانے کے پہلے تصدیقی سگنل کے طور پر کام کرے گی۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY H1 Chart
USD/JPY ka H1 timeframe ka chart hamen price movement ke mutaliq kaafi saaf signal de raha hai. Recent taur par price ne 154.21 ka high touch kiya tha, lekin uske baad neeche ki taraf correction shuru hui. Price abhi 153.75 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai, jo ek ahem support level nazar aa raha hai. Chart par dikhne wali 2 yellow lines moving averages hain, jo trend ke direction ko highlight kar rahi hain. Price in moving averages ke upar trade kar rahi thi, jo bullish trend ka indication tha. Lekin ab price ne upper moving average ko test kiya hai, aur girawat ke baad yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke price sustain karti hai ya neeche ke levels break karti hai.
Neeche dikhne wala Stochastic Indicator ab oversold zone ke kareeb pohanch gaya hai, jo ke 20 ke level ke aas-paas hai. Yeh signal deta hai ke market ab bounce kar sakta hai aur price temporarily upar ja sakti hai. Lekin confirmation ke liye price action ka observation zaroori hai.

Agar price 153.75 ke support se bounce kare, toh upar ki taraf 154.00 ka level pehla target hoga. Iske baad price dobara 154.21 ke resistance ko test kar sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 153.75 ka support todti hai, toh neeche ka agla target 153.30 hoga. Iske neeche girawat tez ho sakti hai aur price lower moving average ko test kar sakti hai. USD/JPY ka trend abhi correction phase mein hai, lekin overall direction abhi bhi bullish hai jab tak price moving averages ke neeche close nahi karti. Traders ko zaroori hai ke woh support aur resistance levels ka dhyan rakhain aur confirmatory signals ke saath trade karein. Risk management aur stop-loss ka istemal lazmi hai, kyun ke girawat ke chances bhi mazeed barh sakte hain agar support tod jaye. Buy position ka sochnay ke liye confirmation ka intezar zaroori hai jab ke sell position ka option tab banay ga jab support break hote hue neeche ke targets samne aayen. Ihtiyat aur strategy ke saath trading karna hi behtareen tareeqa hai.

USD/JPY pair ne recent months mein resilience dikhayi hai lekin Japan ki weakening export sector aur BoJ ke cautious stance ki wajah se market environment kaafi uncertain hai. Abhi tak BoJ ki taraf se interest rate hikes ka koi clear indication nahi mila, jiski wajah se Yen abhi bhi further weakening ke liye vulnerable hai. Japan ki economic data, khaas kar exports aur inflation ke figures, future ke direction ke liye crucial rahenge. Iske ilawa, U.S. economic policy mein koi bhi shift ya Federal Reserve ke actions ka bhi USD/JPY pair par significant asar hoga.Near term mein, yeh pair Japan ke domestic challenges aur broader global economic trends ke liye kaafi sensitive rahega jo volatility ko badha sakta hai aur market sentiment ko bhi impact karega. 153.50 aur 153.00 ke levels critical support zones hain. Agar price in levels ke neeche break karta hai toh yeh market sentiment mein shift ka signal ho sakta hai, jo further downside ko trigger karega.Psychological level 150.00 tak girna ek significant pullback ko indicate karega.Dusri taraf resistance ke aas paas recent highs ka breakdown key hoga jahan traders upward trend ke continuation ke signals dhundhenge.Lekin agar 153.00 ya 152.69 ke support levels hold nahi karte, toh bearish outlook aur strong ho jayega aur market zyada pronounced decline dekh sakta hai. Traders ke liye, Japan ki economic data aur BoJ ke policy statements par nazar rakhna essential hoga taki yeh volatile market navigate ho sake.Is mahine ke shuruwat mein price mein downward correction dekhne ko mila, jahan candlestick 148.66 ke position tak gir gaya. Lekin aaj tak buyers market ko dubara control karne ki koshish karte nazar aaye jo candlestick ko uptrend ki taraf le ja raha hai. Aaj subah ke dauran thoda downward pressure zaroor tha, lekin meri rai mein yeh sirf ek momentary correction lagta hai. Market trend jo pichle kuch dino se active hai uska continuation abhi bhi possible hai. Market ka USD/JPY pair kaafi stable lagta hai, aur buyers ki koshish hai ke woh kal ke downward trend ke baad price ko upar lekar jayein.Agar stochastic indicator 5.3.3 par dhyan diya jaye toh signal line zone 80 par pohonch chuki hai jo yeh indicate kar rahi hai ke buyers abhi bhi market ko control kar rahe hain.

USD/JPY ke price action ka tajziya karte hue nazar aa raha hai ke kal price reversal hua aur ab upward movement ruk gaya hai. Filhaal, quote downward trajectory par chalne ka imkaan rakhta hai, aur aaj yeh movement tezi se barhega. Hum ek mukammal downward movement ki tashkeel ke intezar mein hain, jo kuch specific values tak ja sakta hai. Pehle, pair ascending trend channel mein trade kar raha tha. Trend channel ki upper boundaries ko tor kar 156.28 ka resistance tod diya gaya, lekin phir price wapas upper boundaries par aa gaya. Yahan selling volume dekhne ko mili, jo pair ko range ke lower boundaries tak le gaya. Phir yahan ek aur selling volume bana aur lag raha tha ke pair aur neeche ja sakta hai.
Pair ne trend channel ke bottom ko takreeban chhu liya aur mujhe laga ke ye is mark se upar ja sakta hai. Yeh 154.67 resistance tak pohcha aur ab wahan se rollback ho raha hai. Mera tajziya hai ke pair ab bhi upar jayega, takreeban 155.36 ke mark tak. Wahan se shayad pair correct kare ya phir upar chala jaye, kyun ke yahan volume ka kaam hoga aur shayad correction ho sakta hai. Aaj ki surat-e-haal ko dekhte hue, mein support level 153.20 se buying ka mashwara doon ga. Agar sab kuch plan ke mutabiq raha, to profit 154.30 ke pichlay maximum ko update karke liya ja sakta hai. Agar structure breakdown hota hai, to 152.90 par losses ko fix karna zaroori hoga. Selling ka option bhi mirror level 153.20 se consider kiya ja sakta hai. Trading ke liye loyal rehna aur market ki current situation ke mutabiq adapt karna zaroori hai.Japanese Yen ki recovery mein rukawat ki wajah broader market sentiment hai. Economic optimism ya "risk-on" behavior ke douran investors zyadatar high-yielding assets ko pasand karte hain, jo traditionally safe-haven Yen ko neeche le jata hai. Yeh investor preference ka shift khas tor par jab global markets buoyant hain Yen ke liye significant headwinds paida karta hai. Japan ke technical aur political challenges ke bawajood global markets ka risk-on sentiment Yen ki weakness ko barhawa de raha hai jo near-term mein iska rebound limit kar raha hai.
154.00 ka level pair ke liye ek strong psychological barrier hai. Agar pair is level ko tod deta hai to yeh mazeed buying ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo next key resistance tak 154.50 ka move accelerate karega. Yeh bullish trend ka continuation hoga, kyun ke traders is move ko pair ko upar push karne ke signal ke tor par dekhein ge.Lekin agar yeh level todne mein kamiyab nahi hota, to ek pullback ho sakta hai jo short-term mein pair ki upside ko limit karega.

USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Analysis
USD/JPY ka price iss waqt 154 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jahan Fibonacci retracement ke 61.8% level par resistance ka samna hai. Pehle price ne 149 ke aas paas se strong bounce liya aur lagataar uptrend ke saath ab 154 ke high tak pohanch gaya hai. Yeh indicate karta hai ke buyers market mein strong hain aur price ko upar push kar rahe hain.
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis:
Chart par dekhne se samajh aata hai ke price 61.8% ke key level par struggle kar raha hai. Agar price yahan se upar breakout kar jata hai to next resistance level 155 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price yahan se reject hota hai, to pehla support level 153 ka hai aur uske baad 150 ke paas strong support maujood hai.
Stochastic Indicator Analysis:
Chart ke neeche Stochastic indicator overbought zone ke kareeb hai, jiska matlab hai ke price thoda overextended ho sakta hai. Overbought zone mein jab Stochastic neeche ki taraf cross karta hai, to yeh short-term selling pressure ka signal deta hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar price 61.8% level ko tod nahi pata to correction aane ke chances hain.
Trading Strategy:

1. Agar Price 61.8% level todta hai (154 ke upar breakout):
   • Next target 155 ke aas paas ho sakta hai.
   • Upar ke breakout ke saath buying ka opportunity milega.
2. Agar Price Reject hota hai:
   • 153 aur 150 ke levels strong support provide karenge.
   • Selling opportunity ke liye price ke neeche aane ka intezar zaroori hai.

Summary:
USD/JPY ke price action aur indicators ke analysis ke mutabiq abhi market critical level par hai. Traders ko chahiye ke 154 ke upar breakout ka intezar karen ya phir rejection ke baad support levels ke near entry ka sochen. Fibonacci aur Stochastic indicators dono ka kehna hai ke agle move ke liye breakout ya correction ka signal zaroori hai. Short-term trading ke liye yeh ek achha setup ho sakta hai.

Dosto, USD/JPY ka Daily Chart dekhte hue humein market ka ek clear trend nazar aata hai jo abhi bullish mode mein lag raha hai. Abhi price 153.893 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai aur major support aur resistance levels hamare liye market ke agle moves ke bare mein idea dene ke liye kaafi important hain. Upar ki taraf pehla resistance level 154.657 hai jo ek strong barrier ke taur par kaam kar raha hai. Agar price is resistance ko todti hai, toh next target 156.589 tak jaane ke chances hain. Yeh level ek psychological resistance bhi ban sakta hai, kyunki yahan price pehle bhi pressure face kar chuki hai۔ Neeche ki taraf dekha jaye toh support levels 151.200 aur 150.435 hain. Agar price mein girawat hoti hai toh sabse pehle yeh levels test ho sakte hain۔ Agar price further neeche break karti hai, toh agla strong support 149.040 aur uske neeche 146.516 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai۔ Yeh levels traders ke liye important markers hain jo market ki next movement ko determine karenge۔

Chart pe jo moving averages (white lines) hain, unka trend humein ek aur bullish signal de raha hai kyun ke price in ke upar trade kar rahi hai۔ Jab price moving averages ke upar hoti hai toh iska matlab hota hai ke buyers ka control zyada hai aur market upward trend ke mood mein hai۔ Saath hi, RSI indicator ka value 59.99 ke aas-paas hai, jo batata hai ke market abhi overbought zone mein nahi hai, lekin buying momentum strong hai۔ Aise setup mein traders ke liye zaroori hai ke resistance aur support levels ka closely track rakhein۔ Agar price 154.657 ke resistance ko todti hai toh yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jabke 151.200 ke neeche ka break selling ka signal dega۔ Filhal market neutral se bullish hai, lekin resistance ke paas thoda pressure aa sakta hai۔ Kya price apna resistance tod payegi ya support levels test honge؟ Apna analysis share karein aur trend ke saath trade karne ki koshish karein۔