USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Ki Price Direction

Humari tehqiqat ka mauzoo USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai
USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi miktar inject kar sakta hai

USD/JPY currency pair ki live pricing ki jaari jaiza se mutabiq hai. 141.74 support zone tak ke tezi se neeche aane ne un logon ke liye khatar ko ujaagar kiya jo sahi risk management ko nazar andaz karte hue jaldi se munafa kamane ki koshish kar rahe thay, jo ke bohat baray nuqsan mein tabdeel ho sakti thi. Japan ki economy ke hawale se ahem reports ke jari hone ke baad, jahan markazi bank ne interest rate ko 2.4% tak barhaya, humne Japanese yen mein qabil-e-deed taqat dekhi, jis ne iske mukablay mein doosri currencies mein ahem girawat paida ki . Technical nazar se dekha jaye to is high-volatility instrument ki paish goi mushkil hai, lekin iski volatility aur iske mumkin asraat ko dekhna zaroori hai. Daily hourly chart par 148.01 level ke qareeb ek sideways trend ban gaya hai, aur price chhati martaba is mark ko torhne mein nakam rahi hai. Ek bara player mojud hai, aur isko dhyaan mein rakhna zaroori hai, kyun ke current resistance zone se breakout ek ahem price move ko janam de sakta haiIs liye, main tajweez karta hoon ke is currenc pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders lagayein taake mumkin nuqsan se bach sakein, kyun ke surat-e-haal jaldi se kharab ho sakti hai. Dollar-yen pair ke liye, us din hourly chart par girawat hui, jiske baad ek izafa hua jo 147.103 resistance ko torh gaya. Is breakout ne ek buy signal generate kiya jo 151.644 resistance level ko target kar raha tha. Magar, ye signal ghalat sabit hua, kyun ke price is level ke neeche Friday ko gir gaya. Ghalat breakout us waqt hua jab price is resistance se upar se neeche gir gaya. Monday ko ek naya buy signal paida hua, jo phir se 151.644 resistance ko target kar raha tha, aur price is target tak pohanch gaya. Phir, Tuesday ko price ne is level par wapsi ki, ek aur upward movement karne ki koshish ki, lekin phir se broken level tak wapas aa gaya. Breakout tasdeeq shuda tha, aur kal ka target 151.644 resistance par set hai

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke live pricing ko decode karne ke hawale se hai. Price movements tab hoti hain jab koi bechta hai aur ek willing buyer milta hai, ya jab ek buyer apni position ko average karta hai. Kuch levels par, buyers ko ek opportunity nazar aati hai aur wo market mein enter karte hain. Declines ke doran, lagta hai ke stop-loss orders trigger hote hain, jo key levels break karne ke baad price ko tezi se gira dete hain. Yeh ho sakta hai ke stops extensive sales ko initiate karte hain, jo agle central buying zone tak continue hoti hain.

Jabke primary expectation downward move ki hai, hamesha yeh possibility hoti hai ke buyers price ko upar push kar sakte hain next resistance 142.39 ki taraf, aur shayad is se bhi zyada upar le ja sakte hain. Behtaar yeh hoga ke situation ka dekhein aur uske baad hi aage ke predictions karein.

Recent downward trend daily chart par broader correction ki third wave jaisa lag raha hai. Agar yeh sahi hai, to decline shayad khatam nahi hui hai, aur aage bhi girawat ke chances hain. Lekin, agar yeh kisi zyada significant correction ka hissa hai, to reversal bhi nazdeek ho sakta hai. Price abhi bhi gir rahi hai, aur yeh logical hai ke pullback ka intezar karein pehle se additional sales consider karne se around level 140.348.

Hum is forecast ko primary outlook ke taur par use karenge taake dekha ja sake ke sellers control le sakte hain ya nahi. Current signal downward points karta hai, aur Forex neural network kehte hain ke bearish move continue ho sakta hai. Agar bears local support range ko break kar dete hain, to ek zyada apparent downward trajectory likely hai, jo sell forecast ko confirm karega. Lekin, agar sellers momentum maintain nahi kar paate, to bulls control le sakte hain. False breakouts ke potential se cautious rehna zaroori hai.

Jummah ko, USDJPY ka decline continue hota gaya. Aaj subah, USDJPY trading 143.39 ke price par open hui aur phir 142.69 tak gir gayi. Is decline ke bawajood, h1 support level 143.01 successfully niche break ho gaya.

Agar h1 timeframe ko dekha jaye, to demand area 142.09 tak touch hone mein sirf kuch pips ki doori hai. Agar candle demand area ko successfully pass kar jati hai, to USDJPY aur zyada gir sakta hai. Lekin, agar candle is area ko penetrate nahi karti, to wahan ek retracement hone ka imkaan hai.

Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USDJPY ab bhi gir sakta hai kyunke bearish engulfing pattern hai aur candle abhi Moving Average 12 aur Moving Average 16 areas mein move kar rahi hai. Aaj ke liye, main yeh bhi predict kar raha hoon ke USDJPY girne ka mauka hai kyunke Ichimoku indicator ke hisaab se candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke aap sirf sell positions par focus karein. Take profit target aap 141.78 ke aas-paas rakh sakte hain.

Meri technical analysis ke mutabiq, USDJPY currency pair ke movement aaj bhi girne ki taraf jhukta hua lagta hai, aur price 142.70 tak aa sakti hai. H1 time frame mein, USDJPY ke movement ne bearish engulfing candle bana di hai jo SELL USDJPY ka strong signal hai, aur price 142.70 tak ja sakti hai. RSI 14 indicator ki observation ke mutabiq, current USDJPY price 142.92 hai aur abhi tak oversold nahi hai, isliye is baat ka bahut zyada imkaan hai ke dopahar tak USDJPY 142.70 tak decline karega.

SELL USDJPY signal MA indicator ke use se bhi support hota hai, kyunki MA 12 line aur MA 16 line abhi bhi current USDJPY price 142.92 ke upar hain, to aaj ke liye bhi USDJPY ke girne ka imkaan hai aur price 142.80 tak aa sakti hai. Mere technical analysis ke natije ke mutabiq, USDJPY currency pair ke movement ke liye main SELL USDJPY ka decision le raha hoon aur price 142.70 tak jaane ka expect kar raha hoon.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ne inflation se ladne se zyada naukriyon ko bachane par focus shift kar diya hai, isliye Friday ko release hone wala US non-farm payrolls report bahut hi ahem hai. Analysts kehte hain ke employment data se Fed ke rate cuts ke expectations ka pata chalega. Kuch hafton se market 25 basis points rate cut ki possibility ko digest kar rahi hai. Inflation data ke mutabiq, rate cut chhota hone ki umeed hai, is wajah se long-term US Treasury yields ne mid-August ke baad se sabse uncha level pakra, aur dollar ne August 20 ke baad se sabse ucha level chhoda. US GDP data ne bhi yeh dikhaya ke economic foundation itni mazboot hai ke Federal Reserve ko policy ko relax karne mein kam aggressive rehna chahiye. Reuters se survey kiye gaye economists ko umeed hai ke August mein US non-farm payrolls 165,000 tak barhenge, jo pichle mahine se 114,000 zyada hai. Analysts kehte hain agar data forecast ke nazdeek hota hai, to US economy ko soft landing milne ki umeed hai aur Fed is mahine 25 basis points policy ko ease kar sakta hai. Lekin agar data 100,000 ya usse kam hota hai, to hard landing ka risk barh jayega aur market ko lagta hai ke 50 basis points rate cut ka possibility zyada hai. Non-farm payrolls data ka impact US dollar par ek waqt ke liye zyada hoga. BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne policy mein in tabdeeliyon ka wazeh tor par zikar kiya. Ueda ne kaha ke 2% ka inflation target musalsal aur barabar tor par hasil karne ke liye monetary easing ke darajat mein tabdeeli zaruri thi. Ueda ne yeh bhi wazeh kiya ke Bank mazeed interest rate hikes karne ke liye pur azm hai. Yen ki mazid taqat ka sabab Mitsubishi UFJ Bank ka announcement bhi tha ke woh apne short-term prime lending rate ko 1.475% se barhakar 1.625% kar raha hai, jo ke 2 September se laagu hoga. Ye BoJ ke policy shift ke mutabiq ek qadam tha.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar ko dabao ka samna hai jabke market participants Federal Reserve (Fed) ki ayan wali interest rate decision ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Wednesday ko expected hai. Halaanke Fed se umeed hai ke woh July ke liye rates ko waise hi rakhega, magar September mein rate cut ka speculation barh raha hai. Yeh umeed USD par dabao daal rahi hai, aur USD/JPY pair mein girawat mazeed barh rahi hai.
USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis: Ahm Levels and Trend Analysis
USD/JPY pair ne ahm psychological level 146.00 ko tor diya, aur pehli baar March ke baad is level ke neechay close kiya. Pair mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mili, jisme 150-pip ki range mein fluctuation hui

USD/JPY currency pair ki current pricing behavior ka tajziya hamari guftagu ka mawzu hai. Guzishta hafte USD/JPY pair mein aik noticeable sell-off dekhne ko mila. Weekly chart ke mutabiq trend downward move kar raha hai. Mere analysis ke mutabiq, ane wale hafte mein yeh technical breakdown kuch is tarah hai: moving averages active sell ko signal kar rahe hain, aur technical indicators bhi strong sell ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo ke overall sales recommendation ki taraf le jata hai. In indicators ke mutabiq ane wale hafte ke liye bearish trend expected hai. United States se kuch ahm khabrein expected hain, magar unka effect neutral lagta hai. Wednesday ko release hone wala key U.S. data bhi shayad neutral impact rakhe, jabke Japan se bhi kuch ahm reports shamil hain, jisme Monday ko GDP ka release hoga, jo ke bhi neutral effect ka imkaan rakhta hai. In tamam factors ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, mein anticipate kar raha hoon ke pair mein mazid bearish movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jisme sales price ko 141.01 ke support level tak le ja sakti hai. Dusri taraf, resistance 143.41 par expected hai, jahan buying ho sakti hai, magar overall sentiment bearish lag raha hai.
Agar rollback ka potential dekha jaye, to meri prediction yeh hai ke pair 146.66 tak retrace kar sakta hai, kyunke monthly contract ke liquidity 149.19 aur 147.33 ke darmiyan hai. Aik pullback 147.33 ki taraf likely hai, agar pair key supports 142.25 aur 142.00 ke upar rehne mein kamiyab hota hai. Agar 142.00 ka breakdown hota hai, to price mazid 141.47-141.08 support range tak gir sakti hai. Uske baad ek chhoti bullish correction dekhne ko mil sakti hai, ya phir price 140.62-140.08 tak girne se pehle rebound kar sakti hai. Agar pair 142.00 se neeche nahi girta, to ek bullish pullback 142.51-142.91 resistance zone tak aa sakta hai, jiske baad phir se selling pressure aasakta hai. Agar price 143.08 ke upar break aur hold kar leta hai, to ek bara pullback 147.33 liquidity tak ja sakta hai. Magar, technical signals primary bearish scenario ko support karte hain, jisme sirf chhoti correction ka imkaan hai.

USD/JPY pair ka current price resistance level 144.732 ke neeche dikhai de raha hai, is level par kai dafa tests hone ke baad. Agar price is resistance level ko achi tarah se torhne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to mazeed bullish movement ka potential hai jo ke price ko aur zyada upar le ja sakta hai. Magar agar price phir se is level par atak jata hai, to yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price dobara decline kare aur 143.615 ke support level tak wapas aa jaye. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, humein pata chalta hai ke price ne ek significant girawat ka samna kiya jo ke highest level 148,000 ke aas paas se shuru hui, phir 143,615 ke support level ke qareeb ek naya low bana. Is ke baad price ne ek upward retracement ki koshish ki, magar 144.732 ke resistance level ko achi tarah se tor nahi saka. Yeh dikhata hai ke bearish pressure is area mein ab bhi kaafi strong hai, magar is resistance level ke qareeb correction ya consolidation ka potential ab bhi baqi hai. Agar hum candlestick ki position ko dekhein jo ke Simple Moving Average 60 aur 150 indicators ko tor chuki hai, to yeh ek market trend ka acha hawala hai jo ke ab bhi bearish direction mein move karne ke imkaan ko dikhata hai. Main khud bhi yeh samajhta hoon ke bearish trend ke potential ko chase karna ek acha mauka ho sakta hai, kyun ke mazeed bearish trend ke jaari rehne ka kaafi imkaan hai. Is assumption ke saath, humein sell ke liye price level dekhna chahiye.
Defensive side par, USD/JPY pair Thursday ko Asian trading hours ke dauran 144.50 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Short-term pressure US dollar par Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ke dovish comments ki wajah se hai. Investors ab US GDP growth estimate ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke second quarter mein 2.8% increase ki prediction hai. Wednesday ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke deputy governor, Ryozo Himino ne kaha ke agar inflation planned rate se barh rahi hai to BoJ interest rates ko barhate rehne ka irada rakhti hai, jab ke financial markets ki sehat ko bhi barabar monitor kar rahi hai. Unke remarks BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pichle haftay ke bayanat ke mutabiq hain, jo ke bank ki long-term rate-hike plans ko current market turmoil ke mutabiq support karte hain. Reuters survey ke mutabiq zyada tar analysts yeh anticipate kar rahe hain ke BoJ is saal ek aur dafa rates increase karega, is dafa December mein shuruat hogi jab ke October ko plan kiya gaya tha. Doosri taraf, US currency Japanese yen ke muqable mein kamzor ho gayi hai US Central Bank ke dovish remarks ki wajah se. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne kaha, "ab waqt aa gaya hai ke policy ko adjust kiya jaye." CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, markets ne September mein 25 basis points (bps) ka rate cut pura price kar liya hai, jab ke ek aur bara rate cut bhi 36.5% ke chance ke sath aa sakta hai.

Humari discussion ka markaz USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ki live examination par hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq, expected nateeja poori tarah say mumkin nahi hua. Is model mein proportionality bahut zaroori hai. Iske ilawa, humein ek signal mila hai — ek bearish Doji, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya tha. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono apne targets tak aglay haftay pohanch jayenge. Pehli surat mein, maine spread ko nazarandaaz karte hue 101 points ke girne ki paishgoi ki thi, lekin mujhe abhi bhi yakeen hai ke trading instrument mein ab bhi zyada girawat ki gunjaish hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke buniyad par, mujhe tawaqqu hai ke 100th level 142.04 ke neeche break hoga, aur scenario 138.1 par 141.39 aur 161.7 par 140.82 tak step by step khelay ga. Agar growth channel ke upper boundary ki taraf hoti hai, to yeh faidemand hoga, lekin main apni position adjust karne se pehle ek tez move upwards ka intezar karun ga.

D1 time frame par, USD/JPY ne 141.72 par double touch kiya hai, halaan ke juma ke aakhir tak is critical support se koi mazboot rebound zaahir nahi hua. Tuesday se le kar haftay bhar tak bears ne zabardast hukumat ki, jiss ne pair ko neeche kheencha. Lekin, ek double bottom bana hai, jo shayad prices ko upar dhakel de, jis se bulls muhtamalkan 147.21, 151.82, 154.36, 157.87, aur 162.01 jaise levels ko breach kar saken. Lekin, kuch inconsistency hai: main chart ke neeche do indicators kam hoti hui buy volumes aur shorts ke mumkin recovery ki taraf ishaara karte hain. Maine ibtida mein 141.72 level par tawajjo di thi, kyun ke yeh prices ko bounce karne ka sabab ban sakta hai, aur agar momentum barhta hai, to indicators flip ho sakte hain. Halaankeh downtrend abhi bhi maujood hai, lekin reversal ki imkan bhi hai jaisa ke market tension mein izafa ho raha hai. Ideally, main mazeed sell karna pasand karun ga, jiss se price apni mojudah position se 140 ki taraf jaaye. Yeh sab se mumkin scenario hai. "Trend is your friend," lekin yeh hamesha trading ke liye mawafiq nahi hota.

**Strategic Forex Trading: USD/JPY**

USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior ka analysis hum discuss kar rahe hain. Guzishta haftay, USD/JPY pair mein ek noticeable sell-off dekha gaya. Weekly chart par trend downward ki taraf hai. Meri analysis ke mutabiq aglay haftay ke liye, moving averages active sell ko signal kar rahe hain aur technical indicators bhi strong sell ki taraf ishara karte hain, jiss ki wajah se overall sales recommendation hai. Yeh indicators aane wale haftay ke liye bearish trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. United States se significant news expected hai, magar forecast neutral hai. Key U.S. data jo ke Wednesday ko release hogi, uska bhi neutral impact hoga, jabke Japan bhi Monday ko apni GDP release karega jiss ka effect bhi neutral expect kiya ja raha hai. In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mujhe aglay haftay ke liye aur bearish movement ki tawaqqo hai, aur sales ke zaray price ko 141.01 support level tak drive kiya ja sakta hai. Upper side par, mujhe 143.41 par resistance ki tawaqqo hai, jahan buying ho sakti hai, lekin overall sentiment bearish hi hai.


Aik potential rollback ke hawalay se, mera andaza hai ke pair 146.66 tak retrace kar sakta hai, kyun ke monthly contract se liquidity 149.19 aur 147.33 ke beech hai. Aik pullback 147.33 ki taraf mumkin hai agar pair key supports 142.25 aur 142.00 ke upar rehta hai. Agar 142.00 se neeche breakdown hota hai, toh mazeed decline ki tawaqqo ki ja sakti hai jo ke 141.47-141.08 support range tak ja sakta hai. Wahan se hum ek mukhtasar bullish correction dekh sakte hain, ya phir price 140.62-140.08 tak girne ke baad rebound ho sakta hai. Agar pair 142.00 se neeche nahi girta, toh ek bullish pullback 142.51-142.91 resistance zone tak ho sakta hai, uske baad phir se selling pressure aa sakta hai. 143.08 se upar break aur hold karna ek aur significant pullback ko 147.33 liquidity ki taraf signal kar sakta hai. Lekin, technical signals primary bearish scenario ko support karte hain.

USD/JPY ki current pricing behavior ko discuss aur analyze kar rahe hain. USD/JPY ke chart par, price 147.19 par ruk gayi thi, jahan double top form hua, jis se ek local reversal aya aur aaj 199-point ki decline hui. Yen ki strength Bank of Japan ke Governor Ueda ke comments ki wajah se thi, jinhon ne kaha ke woh zaroorat parne par iss saal ke baad mein interest rates ko raise karne ke liye tayar hain. Iske natije mein, pair 145.12 tak gir gaya. Technically, price dobara uss ascending channel mein wapas agayi jis se woh recently nikli thi. Yeh pair channel ki lower boundary ko test karne ke imkaan mein hai, aur raat ke dauran 144.89 ko test karne ka bhi chance hai, uske baad upward movement phir se shuru ho sakti hai. Yeh dollar mein mazboot movements ko prompt kar sakti hai, lekin Asian session ke dauran reactions yen ke favor mein bhi ho sakte hain. Yeh behtar hai ke market se door raha jaye jab tak upcoming data releases se wazeh trends saamne na aa jayein. Market ne pair ko 145.12 tak drive kiya, aur yeh pair ya to 145.00 se neeche tootega aur apni decline ko jari rakhega — mumkin hai ke yeh 146.08 ke kareeb correct kare — ya phir yeh pair 147.17 ke upar break karke upar chala jaye, jo ke The US dollar continued to support the dollar. Yakeenan, dollar ki correction promising lagti hai, magar yen ke paas iss waqt koi strong drivers nahi hain, jis se yeh dollar ke movements par munhasir ho jata hai. Aaj, tail ki keemat mein 4% ki kami hui, jo ke China se mutaliq media reports ki wajah se ho sakti hai, jahan economy ke baray mein bara khauf hai jo ke ek global recession tak le ja sakta hai. Sona ki keemat bhi kam hui hai, jo ke Chinese central bank ke recent zyada gold kharidne ki wajah se ho sakti hai. Struggling economy ke saath, yeh mumkin nahi lagta ke woh khareedari jari rakhega, jo future demand ke baray mein sawal uthata hai. Hum kal ke US labor market ke key data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, aur Frida ko mazeed reports ki tawakku hai

USDJPY ke liye aaj ka tajwez yeh hai ke aaj ke din ek naya move niche ki taraf honay ke ache chances hain. Aaj ki situation complex hai, lekin mujhe zyada chances niche ke scenario ka lagta hai, jahan tak level 142.11 tak ka raasta saaf nazar aata hai. Lekin, hamesha taiyaar rehna chahiye ke price shayad pehle chhoti si upar ki taraf pullback kar sakti hai aur phir sahi direction mein move kar sakti hai. Aaj kuch aise events hain jo is pair par asar daal sakte hain. Chaliye dekhte hain ke humein kin news ke liye tayaar rehna chahiye:
USD ke liye, aaj kuch average level ki news hain, lekin main sirf sabse important news ko highlight karunga:
- **ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Aug)**: Yeh report employment ki growth ko measure karti hai aur iski report se market mein volatility aa sakti hai.
- **Initial Jobless Claims**: Yeh data unemployment ki shiddat ko batata hai aur isse market ki direction par asar pad sakta hai.
- **Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (Aug)**: Yeh PMI report services sector ke health ko measure karti hai aur isse economic conditions ke baare mein andaza lagaya ja sakta hai.
- **ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Aug)**: Yeh index non-manufacturing sector ke performance ko measure karta hai aur market expectations ko influence kar sakta hai.
- **Crude Oil Inventories**: Crude oil ki inventory levels bhi market ke sentiment ko impact kar sakti hain, khas kar jab oil market mein changes aayein.

Japan ke liye, kuch medium-level events hain jo calendar par hain:
- **Total Employee Cash Earnings (July)**: Yeh report wage growth ko measure karti hai aur consumer spending par asar daal sakti hai.
- **Foreign Bond Investment**: Yeh report foreign investments ko track karti hai aur capital flows ko samajhne mein madad karti hai.
- **Japan's 30-year Government Bonds Auction (JGB)**: Long-term government bonds ki auction bhi market ko impact kar sakti hai, khas kar agar demand ya supply mein koi significant change aaye.

Jo news 3 stars aur 2 stars ke sath mark ki gayi hain, wo zaroor market ko volatility provide kar sakti hain. Isliye, kisi bhi situation

Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke

se dollar ki volatility thodi flat rahi, lekin agle dinon mein macroeconomic data ka silsila shuru ho raha hai, khaaskar Friday ko non-farm payrolls data jo climax tak pohnchega. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ne inflation se ladne se zyada naukriyon ko bachane par focus shift kar diya hai, isliye Friday ko release hone wala U.S. non-farm payrolls report bahut hi ahem hai. Analysts kehte hain ke employment data se Fed ke rate cuts ke expectations ka pata chalega. Kuch hafton se market 25 basis points rate cut ki possibility ko digest kar rahi hai. Inflation data ke mutabiq, rate cut chhota hone ki umeed hai, is wajah se long-term U.S. Treasury yields ne mid-August ke baad se sabse uncha level pakra, aur dollar ne August 20 ke baad se sabse ucha level chhoda. U.S. GDP data ne bhi yeh dikhaya ke economic foundation itni mazboot hai ke Federal Reserve ko policy ko relax karne mein kam aggressive rehna chahiye. Reuters se survey kiye gaye economists ko umeed hai ke August mein U.S. non-farm payrolls 165,000 tak barhenge, jo pichle mahine se 114,000 zyada hai. Analysts kehte hain agar data forecast ke nazdeek hota hai, to U.S. economy ko soft landing milne ki umeed hai aur Fed is mahine 25 basis points policy ko ease kar sakta hai. Lekin agar data 100,000 ya usse kam hota hai, to hard landing ka risk barh jayega aur market ko lagta hai ke 50 basis points rate cut ka possibility zyada hai. Non-farm payrolls data ka impact U.S. dollar par ek waqt ke liye zyada hoga. BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne policy mein in tabdeeliyon ka wazeh tor par zikar kiya. Ueda ne kaha ke 2% ka inflation target musalsal aur barabar tor par hasil karne ke liye monetary easing ke darajat mein tabdeeli zaruri thi. Ueda ne yeh bhi wazeh kiya ke Bank mazeed interest rate hikes karne ke liye pur azm hai. Yen ki mazid taqat ka sabab Mitsubishi UFJ Bank ka announcement bhi tha ke woh apne short-term prime lending rate ko 1.475% se barhakar 1.625% kar raha hai, jo ke 2 September se laagu hoga. Ye BoJ ke policy shift ke mutabiq ek qadam tha.
Dusri taraf, US Dollar ko dabao ka samna hai jabke market participants Federal Reserve (Fed) ki aanay wali interest rate decision ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Wednesday ko expected hai. Halaanke Fed se umeed hai ke woh July ke liye rates ko waise hi rakhega, magar September mein rate cut ka speculation barh raha hai. Yeh umeed USD par dabao daal rahi hai, aur USD/JPY pair mein girawat mazeed barh rahi hai.
USD/JPY Ka Technical Tajziya: Ahm Levels aur Trend Analysis
USD/JPY pair ne ahm psychological level 146.00 ko tor diya, aur pehli baar March ke baad is level ke neechay close kiya. Pair mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mili, jisme 150-pip ki range mein fluctuation hui, aur Japanese Yen ko teen din ka low 144.74 tak le aayi. Jab Wednesday ke din Asian session ka aghaz hua, major pair lagbhag 145.07 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, aur previous close se zyada farq nahi tha.
Hourly chart ke mutabiq, pair ne descending wedge pattern ko tor diya hai, jo ke is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke bearish trend abhi jaari rehne ka imkaan hai bajaye reverse hone ke. Mazeed, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) 30 ke neechay hai, jo is baat ka ishara de raha hai ke yeh currency asset oversold position mein hai aur kuch arsay ke liye rebound kar sakta hai.

se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai. Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend

Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, okay fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin sikke se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja