USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Monday se, humein hourly timeframe par ek sell signal mila hai. Yeh brown bar se mark kiya gaya hai, aur iska chhota potential 146.458 ko target kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, ek expansion bhi complete hui hai. Iska matlab hai ke upper boundary par deviation ke baad, currency pair ne downward movement ki aur lower boundary par deviation ko complete kiya. Abhi yeh pattern ke andar hi hai. Main aam tor par trend ke haq mein expansion formations ko consider karta hoon. Filhal, USDJPY ke liye most recent trend bearish hai, khaaskar jab 4-hour aur hatta ke daily timeframe par dekha jaye. Magar abhi tak humein koi sell pattern nahi mila. Haan, ek naya support level fractals ki buniyad par nazar aa raha hai, lekin humein expansion ko decline ki pehli wave ke tor par consider nahi karna chahiye. Agar currency pair 145.155 ke level ko update karta hai, to yeh 1-2-3 structure of descending waves ko form karega, jo southward movement ke imkanat ko barhata hai.

Pehle chart par hum note karte hain ke hourly signal par jo rise hui thi woh poori tarah complete ho gayi hai - jise green bar se mark kiya gaya hai aur 148.484 ko target kar raha hai. 4-hour chart par ek higher timeframe buy signal bhi hai - jise grey bar se mark kiya gaya hai. Iske targets 152.741 ke level par hain, lekin abhi tak iski completion uncertain hai. Iske ilawa, 1-hour timeframe par last sell signal complete ho chuka hai. 4-hour chart par bhi ek sell signal hai, jo ke same timeframe par buy signal se contradict kar raha hai.

Maine 4-hour signal se potential decline ko second chart par purple bar se mark kiya hai, jo 143.295 ke level ko target kar raha hai. Mera maanna hai ke agar currency pair 145.186 ke level se neeche girta hai aur third wave of decline ko confirm karta hai, to in targets ki taraf trading relevant hogi. Graphically, main in conditions ko blue mein highlight karta hoon. Is scenario mein, remaining downside potential takreeban 190 pips hoga - jo ke ek bohot acha movement hai.

US dollar ne Japanese yen ke muqablay mein Tuesday ke trading session ke doran wobbled kiya, jab market clear direction establish karne mein struggle kar raha tha. Yeh movement bohot zyada uncertainty ko suggest karti hai, jab traders decide karne ki koshish kar rahe hain ke carry trade – ek strategy jo low-yielding currency se borrow karke high-yielding currency mein invest karna involve karti hai – kya phir se apni position regain kar sakti hai. Is uncertainty ke madde nazar, agle kuch din sideways trading ki ummeed hai, jo humne pehle bhi dekhi hai. Lekin, kuch key levels hain jo main closely dekh raha hoon.

Agar US dollar ¥150 level ko break karta hai, to hum ek significant move upar dekh sakte hain, jo shayad ¥152 level aur phir ¥155 level ko target kare. Downside par, ¥144 level ek key support area hai. Agar market is level se neeche girti hai, to situation dollar ke liye mushkil ho sakti hai, khaaskar jab dollar recently pressure mein raha hai.

Yeh baat ke US dollar yen ke muqablay mein apni position hold kar raha hai, despite ke overall weakness ke baad dusri currencies ke muqablay mein, ek positive sign ke taur par dekhi ja sakti hai. Lekin, abhi definite conclusions draw karna thoda jaldi hai. Filhal, main sideways action ki ummeed karta hoon jab market consolidate ho raha hai. Lekin, jab hum is current range se bahar nikalte hain aur highs ya lows break karte hain jo maine mention kiye hain, to hum ek more decisive trend dekh sakte hain jo momentum ke izafe ke sath aayega.

Short mein, jab current market conditions indecision aur noise se bhari hui hain, ¥150 ke around upar aur ¥144 ke around neeche levels agle significant move ko determine karenge is currency pair ke liye. Traders ko in levels breach hone par potential volatility ke liye tayaar rehna chahiye.

Meri daily time frame ke mutabiq, USD-JPY pair ne pichlay do dinon mein musalsal upar ka safar kiya hai. USD-JPY pair abhi tak ek uptrend mein hai kyun ke yeh aqua line ya 150 moving average (145.50) se kaafi upar hai.
Bajud iske ke 20 August, 2024 ko 9:00 server time per rejection ka samna hua, seller ab tak support area 146.50-147.00 ko breach nahi kar saka. Magar, 11:00 server time per, AUG, 2024 mein price ne red line ya 50 moving average ke upar break kiya. Monday ko, mein price ke reaction ka intezaar karunga jab yeh resistance area 147.30-147.55 ko toray ga, aur agar price isey theek se toray to mein ek buy order place karunga.

Kal thodi dair ke liye 146.30 ko tor kar, USD/JPY ka pehla chart sharply bearish ho gaya tha ek false break ki wajah se. Is waqt price position 50-day moving average ke upar hai aur is par rebound kar raha hai. USD/JPY ne support ke neechay 144.60 ko breach kiya aur 146.80 ke demand level par 50-day moving average line ke upar chala gaya. Technically, iska price Ichimoku indicator ke demand se mutaliq hai, aur USD/JPY ka price Ichimoku clouds se ooper hai. Agar iska price 148.75 ke upar break karta hai aur 147.10 ko resistance level bana leta hai, hum expect karte hain ke iska price kal aur barhay ga. Is top ke upar break karne ka faida yeh hoga ke zyada buyers market mein dakhil honge agar USD/JPY pair is level ke upar break kare

USD/JPY pair ka girna pivot H1 2/8 (145.31) par ruka, jahaan se growth shuru hui aur 147.34 tak pohonchi, jis ke baad ek pullback aaya. Agar 146.48 ke neeche consolidation hoti hai, toh bullish TF M15 bearish mein tabdeel ho jaye gi, aur agar 145.84 ka minimum tod diya gaya, toh pair decline shuru karega, jisko bearish TFs H1 aur H4, Daily TF ke saath support milegi, pehle pivot H1 1/8 (144.53) tak, phir pivot H1 (143.75) tak, aur phir hum aaj ke liye growth bhool sakte hain. Agar pair 147.66 - 148.00 ke area par consolidation ke saath grow karta hai, toh bearish TF H1 ka breakdown hoga, lekin is ke liye TF M15 bullish rehna zaroori hai. Bearish TF H4 ka break 150.78 - 152.40 ke area mein consolidation ke saath hoga. Daily TF abhi bearish hai, aur bullish tab hoga jab 153.10 tak growth hoke 155.00-156.70 ke area mein consolidation hogi.
Kal ka trading din USD/JPY pair ke liye hamein downward trend mein market quotes ka movement dikhata hai. Bearish trend dobara shuru ho gaya hai, jiske wajah se instrument pressure mein hai. Financial regulators ka interest rate barhane ka faisla isko aur pressure mein daal raha hai, jiske natije mein Japanese yen mazid mazboot ho raha hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq hum abhi support level 146.39 par hain. Mujhe lagta hai ke abhi tak koi breakthrough nahi hua, aur resistance level 148.35 tak wapas aane ka chance hai. Lekin agar breakthrough hota hai, toh pair 144.54 ke support level tak neeche chala jayega

USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior ka analysis hum ab discuss kar rahe hain. USD/JPY price apni downward trend ko continue kar sakti hai, jo ke U.S. dollar ki evident weakness ki wajah se hai, lekin dollar ke decline ka exact timing abhi tak uncertain hai. Shuru mein, maine Bank of Japan ke interest rate hike ke baad yen ke long-term appreciation ki umeed ki thi. Lekin, yen ki performance sluggish rahi hai, jo ke doubt create karta hai.

Hourly chart par, USD/JPY pair ek local regression channel bana raha hai, jo ab apne lower boundary ke nazdeek hai, jo ke price ke channel ke midpoint tak increase ka suggestion deta hai, jo ke 147.59 ke aas-paas hai. Lekin, yeh short-term rise pair ke medium- to long-term bearish outlook ko negate nahi karti. Agar buyers dominate karte hain aur price decline karti hai, to pair further downward movement dekh sakti hai, jo ke 136.39 se 137.79 range ko target karega.

USD/JPY pair ko trade karte waqt significant uncertainty hai, kyunki price 145.89 se 149.29 tak fluctuate kar rahi hai. Yeh situation trading environment ko challenging bana rahi hai. Agar sellers apne positions ko mazboot karte hain, to price apni upward movement ko continue kar sakti hai, ya phir support levels ke aas-paas 141.74 se 142.74 tak wapas aa sakti hai, jahan ek naya bottom ban sakta hai jahan buyers apni positions exit kar sakte hain.

Lekin, jaise maine pehle mention kiya, unexpected upward momentum hamesha mumkin hai, jo ke pehle ke instances mein dekha gaya hai. Agar price rise hoti hai to market participants ke reactions ko monitor karna crucial hai; agar sellers ki activity barhti hai, to yeh cost ko increase kar sakti hai. Zigzag, MACD, aur RSI indicators bhi is view ko support karte hain, jo ke oversold zone mein hain, jo long positions ke liye potential gains ki taraf ishara karte hain. Bulls ki strength aur activity ko dekhte hue, main apni open position ko secure karne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price Fibonacci target 61.8%, jo ke 154.682 ke aas-paas hai, tak pohnchti hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ki technical analysis ye suggest kar rahi hai ke downward trend continue hoga, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se clear hota hai. Is southward movement ko Zigzag indicator aur auxiliary technical tools, jaise ke Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) jo overbought zone mein hain, further support karte hain, jo ke short-selling opportunities ka potential dikhate hain. Market mein bearish sentiment prevail kar raha hai, aur analyst ka plan hai ke -23.6% Fibonacci support level, jo ke 144.694 price par located hai, tak pohonchne par open position ko close kar diya jaye. Risk ko mitigate karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par le aaye ga jaise hi position profitable territory mein enter kare gi. Yeh approach trader ko bearish momentum se faida uthane ka moqa deti hai jab ke potential price reversals se bacha kar rakhti hai Recent US labor market data ke release ne USD/JPY price ko southward move karne par majboor kiya. Yeh development trader, Dmitry ke liye khushi ka baais hai jo ke ab is bearish trend se profits enjoy kar raha hai. Lekin analyst ka maanna hai ke Japanese yen shayad zyada dair tak vertically strengthen nahi kar payega, aur price stabilize ho sakti hai, jis se consolidation ka period ya phir northward move ho sakta hai. Despite current bearish sentiment, analyst caution karta hai ke US dollar ko completely write off karna theek nahi hoga. American currency apni resilience ke liye jani jati hai aur yeh kis waqt bhi comeback kar sakti hai, ya toh USD/JPY pair mein reversal ke zariye ya phir doosri currency pairs mein strength ke zariye. Analyst market conditions ko closely monitor karega aur trading strategy ko accordingly adjust karega taake potential opportunities ka faida uthaya ja sake

Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke foreign exchange market mein trading ke inherent risks hote hain, aur investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies implement karni chahiye, aur kisi bhi investment decision se pehle professional guidance hasil karni chahiye. Agle Federal Reserve meeting tak pura mahina baqi hai, aur is dauran is currency pair ki price mein significant increase dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Yeh is wajah se hai ke dollar ki strength ko drive karne wale underlying factors, jaise ke US economy ka robust performance aur Fed ka hawkish monetary policy stance, fundamentally altered nahi huye hain. Recent economic data release ke bawajood, jo ke kuch logon ka manna hai ke government agencies ne upcoming elections se pehle rosier picture paint karne ke liye manipulate kiya, dollar ka long-term trajectory bullish hi rahega

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis

Guzeel do dinon mein, USD/JPY currency pair mein kafi utaar-chadhav dekhi gayi hai, jo ki economic aur geopolitical factors se prabhavit hai. 5 August ko, yen ne 7 mahino ka sabse buland star par pahunch gaya jab Japanese authorities ne currency market mein intervention kiya, taqriban 5.53 trillion yen kharch karke currency ki madad ki. Is intervention ko partially 10-saal Japanese government bond ki yield mein girawat ne drive kiya, jo ki 0.8% se neeche aa gaya tha kyunki Federal Reserve ne kamzor US jobs data ke baad interest rates ko zyada aggressively cut karne ki ummeed thi.

Usi din, Bank of Japan ne anokhi rate hike ka elaan kiya, apni benchmark interest rate ko 0.25% tak badha diya aur economic conditions supportive rahe to rates ko aur badhane ka ishara diya. Ye move Japan ki economic challenges ke bawajood aya, jaise ki private consumption mein girawat aur economy mein contraction.

Dusri taraf, US ne niraasha janak economic data dekha, jaise ki weak manufacturing PMI aur economic slowdown ki chinta. In factors ne US stock futures ko neeche ki taraf dhakka diya aur USD/JPY pair par dabav badhaya. Federal Reserve ki commentary ne bhi US labor market ko protect karne ka ishara diya, jo ki aggressive rate cuts ko delay kar sakta hai.

Kul milakar, hawkish stance aur Fed ki cautious approach ne economic uncertainties ke beech ek volatile environment banaya hai USD/JPY pair ke liye. Investors central bank policies aur economic data par nazre rakhe huye hain taki future movements ka andaza lagaya ja sake, US jobs report aur dono central banks se monetary policy adjustments par khas tawajjah.

Forecast & Trading Strategy:

Aaj, maine dekha ki US dollar index ek achche value par hai. Isliye, USD/JPY ne 146.00 ka high break kar liya. Is level ko break karne ke baad, humne quote ko broken resistance par aate dekha aur level ko respect karne ke baad rebound dekha. Iska matlab hai ki US dollar Japanese yen ke khilaf mazboot ho raha hai. Daily chart mein do bottoms current price level ke paas dikhai dete hain, jo ki currency price ke liye resistance ka kaam karte hain. Toh, 146.80 ke upar break hoga to humein buying opportunity milegi

USDJPY H4 time frame chart per, USDJPY currency pair aik corrective phase say guzr raha hai, aur recent mein yen ya dollar per koi khaas khabar ka asar nahi huwa. Correction kay bawajood ye mumkin hai kay market Thursday tak bearish trend par barqarar rahay. Market kay possible direction ko samajhnay ka raaz US unemployment claims data mein hai, jo kay labor market ki halat kay baray mein insight de sakta hai. Agar data labor market ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai, to ye aam tor par USDJPY kay liye bearish sentiment ko support karega. Magar abhi haali mein US unemployment claims data anay ki wajah say market ko behtari ka ehsas huwa, jo pehlay say behtar nikla. Is unexpected positive result ki wajah se US dollar ko support mili, aur yen ke muqablay mein dollar appreciate kar gaya. Data ke achi performance yeh zahir karti hai ke labor market pehle jitna kamzor samjha ja raha tha, utna nahi hai, jo dollar ko mazid taqat de sakta hai. Traders aur analysts in developments ko ghaur say dekh rahay hain taake USDJPY pair ka future trajectory samajh sakein. Hamesha ki tarah, market participants ko dekhna hoga ke currency ki movements par immediate aur broader economic factors ka kya asar hota hai.
Agar USDJPY pair 152.75 ke level tak pohanchta hai, to yeh trend mein aik naya morh laa sakta hai. Yeh level sirf accumulation ka target nahi hai, balkay current bullish wave ke liye aik mumkin ceiling bhi ho sakta hai. Agar pair is level tak pohanchta hai, to is baat ka imkaan hai ke significant resistance ka samna hoga, jo sharp reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai. Nateeja yeh hai ke aanay wale sessions mein USDJPY pair mein khaasi volatility dekhnay ko mil sakti hai. Chahe yeh pair seedha 150.50 tak jata hai ya raaste mein hurdles ka samna karta hai, yeh level bulls aur bears ke liye aik important battlefield hoga. Hamesha ki tarah, traders ko technical signals aur fundamental developments par nazar rakhni hogi taake is dynamic currency pair ke uthal puthal ka samna kar sakein

USD/JPY pair ne apni downward trajectory ko continue kiya, jo ki strengthening US Dollar (USD) se largely influence kiya gaya tha. USD/JPY pair 141.71 ke new low par trade kar raha hai, jo level 1986 se nahi dekha gaya tha. Is trend ke bawajood, Japanese authorities ki verbal interventions yen ko kuch support offer kar sakti hain, potentially uski further decline ko curb kar sakti hain.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:
USD ne teen din ki losing streak ko break kar diya, US Treasury yields mein rise ke wajah se. Ye increase growing expectations ke wajah se aya ki Federal Reserve 2024 mein interest rates ko cut kar sakta hai. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ki President, ne acknowledge kiya ki monetary policy ka effect hai, lekin ye uncertain hai ki rates ko lower karne ka waqt kab hoga. Daly ne emphasize kiya, "Agar inflation sticky ya slowly decline karti hai, to rates ko higher for longer hona hoga,” according to Reuters.

Market participants ab Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ki upcoming speech se insights ka wait kar rahe hain. Japan ke economic indicators ki taraf dekhte huye, Tankan Large Manufacturing Index ne second quarter mein 13 par uptick dekha, previous reading 11 se upar. Ye two saal mein highest level hai, improved economic outlook ko reflect karta hai. Lekin Japan ka Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI June ke liye revised slightly down 50 par kiya gaya, initial reading 50.1 se, lekin ye expansionary territory mein second consecutive month ke liye rehta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:
USD/JPY pair 144.00 par trade kar raha hai. Hourly chart ko analyze karte huye, bullish trend dikhai deti hai, pair upper boundary of ascending channel pattern ke paas hai. Lekin traders ko caution exercise karni chahiye, kyunki 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 se upar hai, indicating ki asset overbought ho sakta hai. Ye suggests ki potential correction horizon par ho sakti hai. Agar USD/JPY pair ascending channel ki upper boundary ko breach karta hai approximately 144.70 par, to ye bullish sentiment ko bolster kar sakta hai aur pair ko psychological resistance level 147.00 ki taraf drive kar sakta hai

USD/JPY ne record high par pahunch gaya hai, jo rapid increase ko darshaata hai, aur yeh profit-taking ke liye potential opportunity ko suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline hone ka bhi chance hai. Iske alawa, moving averages aur bullish channel ke above breakout bearish pressure ko suggest karta hai.

Hourly chart analysis aur 15-minute chart ke mutabiq, decline hone ka possibility hai kyunki moving average current price se above hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Is week ki trend pattern uptrend ko darshaati hai narrow range mein.

Modest upward rally ke baad, yeh increase next week tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices uptrend maintain karengi. Morning candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke above close kiya, jo market trend mein rise ko suggest karta hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko surpass kar sakte hain...

Currently, USD/JPY apne trend line ke above trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko darshaata hai, aur yeh trend line support ke role mein kaam kar raha hai. Bullish rally continue karne ke liye, lagta hai ki buyers ko 162.15 resistance level ko break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke liye continued movement ka potential offer karega.

First target supply zone 160.47 par hoga, jahan historically sellers ne prices ko down kiya hai. Reverse movement short side ki taraf bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle support level 160.24 ko break karna hoga, jahan se price often bounce back karta hai. Bear strength consolidate hogi agar price broken level 160.31 ke neeche, jo price weakness ko darshaata hai.

Yeh particularly evident hai USD/JPY market mein last Wednesday ko jab price ne significant downward movement experience kiya. Shorter time frame mein, price ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur abhi 50-period Simple Moving Average line ke above hai, jo slight upward correction ko darshaata hai. Yeh possible hai ki today ka price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area mein consolidate ho, kyunki yeh conditions often Tuesdays ko occur hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai.

H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko observe karte hue, yeh clear hai ki yeh currently downward phase mein hai, lekin range bahut wide nahi hai. Is week ki trend slightly bearish hai, despite USD/JPY pair ne upward move kiya hai July 2024 ke beginning mein trading sessions ke baad. Yeh implies ki agar USD/JPY is level ko hold nahi kar sakti, to yeh next support levels ki taraf move ho sakti hai, jo potentially 168.00 ya lower ho sakti hai. Agar support hold karta hai, to rebound occur ho sakti hai, aur pair previous highs 168.70-169.00 par test kar sakti hai

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
USDJPY
Assalam Alaikum! US dollar/Japanese yen ka joda 145.20 ki support satah ko todne me nakam raha lekin palat gaya aur iske ooper band ho gaya. Is tarah, is bat ka bahut zyada imkan hai keh jodi qadar hasil karti rahegi aur 147.30 ke nishan ki taraf badhegi.



Agar aaj qimat 145.20 ki support satah ko todti hai aur 145.20 ki support satah se niche girte hue 4-ghante ke chart par ek nayi muqami nichli satah par pahunch jati hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi niche ki taraf palat jayegi aur 142.80 ke nishan tak gir jayegi. Is dauran, joda ooper ke rujhan ko dobara shuru karne ki koshish karta dikhayi deta hai. Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh dollar/yen ka joda 145.20 ki satah se ucchal kar 147.30 ke nishan tak pahunch jayega. Mujhe ummid hai keh yah muzahmati satah jald hi toot jayega aur uske bad 148.60 ki muzahmati satah tak rally hogi. Agar qimat 148.60 se ooper toot jati hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi mumkena taur par 150.30 ki aham muzahmati satah tak faida badhayegi, jahan se mujhe mandi ke reversal aur 140.00 ke nishan se tezi ki islah ke ikhtetam ki ummid hai. Agar qimat 150.30 se mandi ki taraf mudti hai to, ummid hai keh dollar/yen ki jodi mazbut manfi raftar hasil karegi aur 140.00 ki satah par wapas aa jayegi, halankeh yah ek din me nahin hoga.

USD/JPY currency pair ka H4 chart analyze karne par, Heiken Ashi candles ko TMA (Triangular Moving Average) aur RSI indicators ke sath istemal karte hue, lagta hai ke market is waqt ek upward trend ko favor kar rahi hai aur buying strength mein significant izafa ho raha hai. Heiken Ashi candles market noise ko smooth out karti hain aur market dynamics ka clearer view deti hain, jo technical analysis ko enhance karti hain aur trading decisions ki accuracy ko improve karti hain. TMA indicator, jo ke red, blue, aur yellow lines per mushtamil hota hai, support aur resistance levels ko define karta hai based on twice-smoothed moving averages. Ye price movement ke current boundaries ko outline karta hai, jo traders ko potential price action ka clearer picture deta hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index), jo ke Heiken Ashi ke sath complementary oscillator ke tor par use hota hai, buying signals ko effectively confirm karta hai.
Chart ko dekhne par, humein nazar aata hai ke Heiken Ashi candles ne blue color mein shift kar liya hai, jo ke ek strong bullish trend ko indicate kar raha hai. Price ne channel ke lower boundary ko (jo ke red dashed line se depict kiya gaya hai) cross kiya aur, lowest price level se bounce karke, channel ki middle line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf wapas move kar raha hai. Ye movement is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke price Heiken Ashi candles ke bullish signal ke sath align ho rahi hai.

RSI oscillator bhi buying signal ko support karta hai, kyunki uska curve is waqt upward move kar raha hai aur overbought level ke qareeb nahi hai. Indicators ka ye alignment ek favorable opportunity ko suggest karta hai ke ek long position enter ki jaye. Is trade ka target channel ki upper boundary hoga, jo ke blue dashed line se indicate hoti hai, price level 151.611 par.

Summary mein, current analysis ek profitable long trade ke liye strong potential suggest karti hai based on Heiken Ashi candles, TMA, aur RSI indicators ka combination. Bullish signals aur price ka channel ki middle line ki taraf movement, significant upward trend ke idea ko support karti hai. Is liye, upper boundary of the channel tak reach karne ke goal ke sath ek long trade place karna ek promising strategy nazar aata hai

Tuesday ko (20 August), US dollar yen ke against 145.36 par gir gaya, jab ke aik din pehle yeh 145.20 tak pohanch gaya tha, jo ke 7 August ke baad sab se kam level tha. Tuesday ke din foreign exchange market mein US dollar index ki mazeed girawat ne ghair-US currencies ko jama'ati tor par barhawa diya. Yeh is liye ke investors Wednesday ko aanay walay US employment data ke revision aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Powell ke Jackson Hole Economic Conference mein iss haftay Wyoming mein hone wali taqreer ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se unhein interest rate cuts ke hawalay se zyada wazeh maloomat milne ki umeed hai.
Japan mein, Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda se jumay ko parliament mein sawalat kiye jayein gay, jahan central bank ke pichlay mahine ke interest rate barhanay ke faislay par guftagu hone ki umeed hai. Agle hafte aane walay data ke mutabiq, jo ke Reuters ke 18 economists ke poll par mabni hai, Japan ki consumer inflation July mein tisray musalsal mahine ke liye barhni umeed hai. Yeh Bank of Japan ko mazeed rate hike par ghoor karne ka moqa day sakti hai, jab ke Bank ne pichlay mahine short-term interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya tha. Japan aur America ke interest rate adjustments ke mukhtalif iradon ke bawajood, yen ko dheere dheere mazeed bullish positions ka faida milne ki umeed hai.

Daily chart par, USD/JPY pichlay hafte 149.43 tak agay barhnay mein kamiyab nahi ho saka (149.43 woh 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level hai jo 161.96 se 141.68 ke decline ka hai (July se August)). Spot ne raat ke Asian low 145.86 se rebound kiya, lekin London mein 147.34 par rok diya gaya, jo is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke dollar ka counterattack nakam raha. Agar qareebi lows 145.30-145.00 toot jate hain, toh USD/JPY mazeed gir sakta hai

Tuesday (August 20) ko US dollar yen ke muqable mein 145.36 tak gir gaya, jab ke ek din pehle 145.20 tak pohanch gaya tha, jo ke 7 August se ab tak ka sabse kam level hai. Foreign exchange market mein Tuesday ko US dollar index ke mazeed girne se non-US currencies ne kolektiv tor par izafa dekha. Yeh is wajah se hai kyunki investors Wednesday ko US employment data ke revision aur is haftay ke akhri mein Wyoming mein hone wali Jackson Hole Economic Conference mein Federal Reserve ke Chairman Powell ki speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jismein interest rate cuts ke bare mein wazeh maloomat milne ki umeed hai.

Japan mein, Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ko Friday ko parliament mein sawaalon ka samna karna hoga, jahan pichlay mahine central bank ke interest rates barhane ke faisle par guftagu hone ki umeed hai. Aik Reuters poll ke mutabiq, agle hafte ka data dikhata hai ke Japan ki consumer inflation July mein teesri martaba barhne ka imkaan hai, jo Bank of Japan ko short-term interest rates ko pichlay mahine 0.25% barhane ke baad mazeed rate hike par ghoorne ka moka de sakta hai. Japan aur America ke interest rate adjustments ke mutabiq mukhtalif rukh hone ke sabab yen ko bullish positions se mazeed maqsad hasil hone ki umeed hai.

Daily chart par dekha jaye to USD/JPY pichlay haftay 149.43 tak barhne mein nakam raha (149.43 woh threshold hai jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ke mutabiq hai, jo ke July se August ke darmiyan 161.96 se 141.68 tak girawat ke darmiyan aya tha), aur spot rate Asian low of 145.86 se rebound hua, lekin London mein 147.34 par rok gaya, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke dollar ka counterattack nakam raha. Agar 145.30-145.00 ke recent lows toot jate hain, to USD/JPY mazeed gir sakta hai.

Daily chart se yeh bhi zahir hota hai ke USD/JPY pair pichlay haftay 149.43 ke ahem threshold ko paar karne mein nakam raha, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level hai, jo July se August ke darmiyan 161.96 aur 141.68 ke darmiyan girawat se aya tha. Spot rate Asian low of 145.86 se rebound hua, lekin London mein 147.34 par rok gaya, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke dollar ka counterattack nakam raha. Agar 145.30 se 145.00 ke qareebi lows toot jate hain, to yeh mumkin hai ke USD/JPY mazeed girawat dekhe.

USD/JPY currency pair ne apni downward trajectory barqarar rakhi hai, jo zyadatar strong US Dollar (USD) ke asar mein hai. Filhal, yeh pair aik nayi low of 141.71 par trade kar raha hai, jo 1986 ke baad se sabse kam level hai. Is trend ke bawajood, Japanese authorities ki taraf se aane wali verbal interventions yen ko thora support de sakti hain, jo mazeed girawat ko rok sakti hai.
USD ne apni three-day losing streak ko tora hai, jo US Treasury yields mein izafay ki wajah se hai. Yeh izafa is liye dekha ja raha hai kyunki investors ko umeed hai ke Federal Reserve 2024 mein interest rates mein cut kar sakta hai. San Francisco ke Federal Reserve Bank ki President Mary Daly ne monetary policy ke asar ko tasleem kiya, lekin unhone is baat ka izhar kiya ke kisi bhi mumkin rate cut ke waqt ke bare mein uncertainty hai. Daly ne kaha, "Agar inflation sticky rehta hai ya dheere dheere girta hai, to rates ko zyada arsay tak barhawa rakhna par sakta hai," Reuters ke mutabiq.

Market participants ab Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke aane wale speech ke intezar mein hain. Japan ke economic indicators par nazar dali jaye to Tankan Large Manufacturing Index ne doosray quarter mein izafa dikhaya, jo pehlay reading of 11 se barh kar 13 ho gaya, jo ke pichlay do saal mein sabse zyada hai, aur yeh ek improved economic outlook ko zahir karta hai. Magar, Japan ka Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI June ke liye slightly down revise hua hai, jo pehlay reading 50.1 se 50 par aya, lekin yeh doosray musalsal month ke liye expansion territory mein hai.

Hourly time frame par, USD/JPY pair filhal 144.00 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Hourly chart ka tajziya yeh dikhata hai ke bullish trend hai, jahan yeh pair aik ascending channel pattern ke upper boundary ke kareeb hai. Magar, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye kyunki 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 se ooper hai, jo is asset ke overbought hone ka ishara de sakta hai. Yeh is baat ka izhar karta hai ke aane wale waqt mein correction aa sakti hai.

Agar USD/JPY pair ascending channel ki upper boundary jo ke 144.70 ke aas paas hai, ko breach karta hai, to yeh bullish sentiment ko barhawa de sakta hai aur pair ko psychological resistance level of 147.00 tak le ja sakta hai. Is waqt USD/JPY 147.50 par hai, jo ke Japanese yen ke muqablay mein US dollar ki value hai. Filhal, exchange rate zyada tar din ke opening par quoted hai, lekin European aur Asian trading sessions mein dono directions mein accha movement dekhne ko mila, jahan fluctuations ka range 100 points tha, 148.10 se 148.30 tak.

Aik ghanta ek din mein aik trade ko analyze karne ke liye kaafi hai USDJPY time frame par. 146.40 par, deal mein enter karna mumkin ho sakta hai. Stop loss ko adjust kiya jayega: Stop Loss - 147.30, Take Profit - 146.10, Take Profit - 145.10, aur Take Profit - 144.10. Yeh ensure karne ke liye hai ke agar signal mein koi tabdeeli hoti hai, to deal ko plus ke sath cover kar lein na ke stop loss ka intezar karein. Aane wale trading plans ke liye, dekha jayega ke kya hota hai jab tak yeh plannings concerned hain.