USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Dear members! Abhi koi mukhtalif options nahi hain; is waqt se girawat shuru ho sakti hai, ya baad mein 161.50 pe. 161.85 pe kaafi zyada resistance hone ke imkaan hain. Kuch U-turn ke isharaat hain, lekin bazaar zyada mutasir nahi ho raha. Japanese economy oil imports pe depend karti hai, jo exchange rate ko seedha asar karti hai. Abhi ka oil price situation yen ki value ko affect kar rahi hai, aur demand accordingly adjust ho sakti hai. Lekin, ye abhi tak clear nahi hai ke ye kitna hone wala hai. General trend se, mujhe lagta hai ke 161.00 tak girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Halankeh extended position ko resistance mila, magar kuch accumulation hui. Situation abhi clear nahi hai. Is liye, zyada concrete signals ka intezaar karna behtar hoga. Current H4 chart ke mutabiq, agar aap sell-off ka signal dekh rahe hain, toh zaroori hai ke active wave ke lower point 162.80 ke niche girna ho. Ye teeno-wave structure ke baad correction ya reversal trigger kar sakta hai. Agar price current level se uthane ki koshish karti hai, toh 161.58 ke aas-paas resistance face kar sakti hai, aur stop losses set karna behtar hai.



Doosri taraf, nazdeek ka resistance 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) 159.83 ke aas-paas hai, aur uske baad ascending channel ke lower limit 159.96 pe hai. Agar ascending channel mein wapas aaya, toh USD/JPY pair ke sentiment mein sudhar ho sakta hai, aur channel ke upper limit 163.21 ke aas-paas target kiya ja sakta hai. Yen ke liye outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai. Yen ki kamzori dollar ki strength ke bawajood hui. Agar aisa na hota, toh USD/JPY 162.1 ya 163.1 tak soar kar chuka hota. Japanese government ko manipulated inflation data ke liye shukriya ada karna chahiye; bina iske yen zyada mushkil mein hoti. Lekin, jab statistics ka asar kam hoga, bears ko substantial offensive ke liye tayar rehna hoga, aur pair shayad 160-161 pe wapas aa sakti hai. Agar dollar strong raha, toh naya high dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

USD/JPY pair ne apni daily lows ke 168.49 ke qareeb se notable rebound dekha, aur 168.74 se upar gaya. Lekin, is upward movement ne 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke saath resistance ka samna kiya, jo ke 162.43 ke aas-paas hai. Agar pair ko further upside momentum chahiye, toh buyers ko is 50-SMA ko successfully breach karna hoga aur phir trend line ke lower boundary 168.00 ke qareeb test karna hoga. Iske ilawa, 168.80 ke aas-paas significant resistance dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo bullish continuation ke liye ek critical threshold hai.

Abhi ke market conditions USD/JPY ke liye consolidation aur resistance testing ka period dikhate hain. Pair ka daily lows se rebound karna temporary recovery ka indication hai, lekin 50-SMA ka resistance is baat ko suggest karta hai ke ye recovery obstacles ka samna kar sakti hai.

168.49 se 168.74 tak ka movement intraday recovery ko demonstrate karta hai. Ye dikhata hai ke lower levels pe buying interest hai, jo support provide karta hai aur agar key resistance levels overcome hote hain toh further gains ki possibility create karta hai. 50-SMA jo 162.43 pe hai, ek formidable barrier ban gaya hai. Moving averages jaise 50-SMA traders ke liye trends aur potential reversal points ko identify karne mein madadgar hote hain. Is level ko pehli dafa breach na kar paana is resistance ki importance ko highlight karta hai, aur is level ko successfully breach karna bullish sentiment ka strong indicator hoga.



50-SMA ke baad, trend line ke lower boundary 168.00 buyers ke liye agla challenge hai. Trend lines technical analysis mein critical hoti hain kyunke ye support aur resistance levels ko ongoing trends mein mark karti hain. Is trend line ko test karna aur breach karna continued upward movement ke liye key signal hoga. Iske ilawa, 168.80 ke aas-paas ka resistance bhi ek significant hurdle ho sakta hai. Ye level bullish continuation ke liye critical point mark karta hai, aur iske successfully breach hone se USD/JPY pair ko sustained gains mil sakte hain.

USD/JPY Pair Analysis on the H1 Chart

USD/JPY pair ne apni daily lows se 168.49 ke qareeb se notable rebound dekha aur 168.74 se upar gaya. Lekin, is upward movement ko 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) pe resistance ka samna karna pada, jo ke 162.43 ke aas-paas hai. Agar pair ko aage momentum chahiye, toh buyers ko is 50-SMA ko successfully breach karna hoga aur phir trend line ke lower boundary 168.00 ke qareeb test karna hoga. Iske ilawa, 168.80 ke aas-paas significant resistance dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo bullish continuation ke liye ek critical point hai.

Abhi ke market conditions USD/JPY ke liye consolidation aur resistance testing ka period dikhate hain. Pair ka daily lows se rebound karna temporary recovery ka indication hai, lekin 50-SMA ka resistance is baat ko suggest karta hai ke ye recovery obstacles ka samna kar sakti hai.

168.49 se 168.74 tak ka movement intraday recovery ko dikhata hai. Ye dikhata hai ke lower levels pe buying interest hai, jo support provide karta hai aur agar key resistance levels overcome hote hain toh further gains ke liye stage set kar sakta hai. 50-SMA jo 162.43 pe hai, ek formidable barrier ban gaya hai. Moving averages jaise 50-SMA traders ke liye trends aur potential reversal points ko identify karne mein madadgar hote hain. Is level ko pehli dafa breach na kar paana is resistance ki importance ko highlight karta hai, aur is level ko successfully breach karna bullish sentiment ka strong indicator hoga.



50-SMA ke baad, trend line ke lower boundary 168.00 buyers ke liye agla challenge hai. Trend lines technical analysis mein critical hoti hain kyunki ye support aur resistance levels ko ongoing trends mein mark karti hain. Is trend line ko test karna aur breach karna continued upward movement ke liye key signal hoga. Iske ilawa, 168.80 ke aas-paas ka resistance bhi ek significant hurdle ho sakta hai. Ye level bullish continuation ke liye critical point mark karta hai, aur iske successfully breach hone se USD/JPY pair ko sustained gains mil sakte hain.

USD/JPY Pair Analysis:

Aaj USD/JPY pair ne significant activity dikhayi, high levels pe trade kiya aur 168.39-168.69 ke aas-paas close hua. Filhal, pair thoda drop dekh raha hai aur 168.93-168.40 ke beech mein hover kar raha hai. D1 (daily) chart ko analyze karne se pata chalta hai ke USD/JPY D1 moving average line pe 168.470 support level ki strength ko test kar raha hai.

Current Market Dynamics:

USD/JPY pair ne volatility dikhayi hai, jo broader market sentiment aur economic conditions ko reflect karti hai. Kuch factors jo current market dynamics ko contribute kar rahe hain, unmein shamil hain:

Economic Indicators: Dono United States aur Japan se aayi recent economic data USD/JPY pair ko influence kar rahi hai. US Dollar ki strength ko positive economic indicators, jaise ke strong employment data aur retail sales, ne boost diya hai. Is ke muqablay, Japanese Yen ko slow economic growth aur Bank of Japan ki cautious approach se pressure face karna pad raha hai.

Central Bank Policies: Federal Reserve ka monetary policy, khaaskar interest rates ke hawale se stance, ek critical factor hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke economy ke performance aur inflation ke hawale se comments traders ke liye closely watched hain. Wahi, Bank of Japan ki monetary policy, jo relatively dovish hai, bhi pair ke movements ko affect kar rahi hai.

Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical events aur uncertainties, jaise trade tensions aur international diplomatic developments, market volatility ko barhawa dete hain. Ye factors aksar investors ko safe-haven assets, jaise Japanese Yen, ki taraf le jaati hain, jo US Dollar ke muqablay mein iski value ko impact karti hai.

Technical Analysis:

Technical perspective se, D1 chart dikhata hai ke USD/JPY 168.470 ka critical support level test kar raha hai. Ye level D1 moving average line ke saath coincide karta hai, jo traders ke liye ek significant point banata hai. Moving average dynamic support level ka kaam karti hai, jo specific period ke average price ko indicate karta hai, is case mein daily chart.

Support and Resistance Levels: 168.470 ka level crucial hai kyunki is support ko break karne se further downside potential ka signal mil sakta hai. Agar USD/JPY is level ke upar nahi reh pata, toh agle support levels, shayad 168.00 ya lower ke aas-paas, ki taraf ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar support hold karta hai, toh pair rebound dekh sakta hai aur previous highs 168.70-169.00 ke aas-paas test kar sakta hai.

Moving Averages: D1 moving average line trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh ye bullish trend ke continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh ye potential trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka indication ho sakta hai.



Conclusion:

USD/JPY pair ki recent trading activity economic indicators, central bank policies, aur geopolitical factors ka complex interplay reflect karti hai. D1 moving average line pe 168.470 support level ka current test pair ke liye ek critical juncture hai. Traders ko is level ke aas-paas pair ka behavior closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki ye future price movements ke liye significant insights provide kar sakta hai. Cautious aur informed approach adopt karna, technical aur fundamental analysis ko incorporate karna, USD/JPY pair ke market dynamics ko navigate karne ke liye zaroori hoga.

Hali mein US ke inflation levels jo ke expected se kam hain, ne US dollar par Japanese yen ke muqablay mein mazboot selling pressure dal diya hai (USD/JPY). Yeh pair 157.37 ke support level tak gir gaya hai, jo ke lagbhag ek mahine ka sabse kam hai, aur filhal 158.18 ke aas-paas stable ho gaya hai.

Economic front pe, Japan ke nationwide price growth ka June mein 2.7% tak barhne ka expectation hai, jo ke yeh ummeed de raha hai ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) apne agle meeting mein bond purchases kam karne aur interest rates barhane pe gaur kar sakta hai. Ahem baat yeh hai ke Japanese workers ke basic salaries ne 1993 ke baad sabse bada jump dekha hai, jo consumption ko support kar sakta hai aur BoJ ko rates phir se barhane ka mauka de sakta hai.

US mein, core consumer price index, jo food aur energy costs ko exclude karta hai, sirf 0.1% barha hai May se, jo teen saalon mein sabse chhoti advance hai. Overall index pehli baar pandemic ke baad giri hai, largely declining gasoline prices ki wajah se. Distressed investors ko commercial real estate market ke collapse mein ek significant opportunity nazar aa rahi hai, jahan lagbhag $1 trillion ki related debt is saal mature hone wali hai, jo distressed assets ke buyers ke liye zyada options create karega.

Stock market front pe, US equities ne pichle Friday record levels ke qareeb close kiya, September mein interest rate cuts ki badti umeed aur earnings season ke shuru hone ki wajah se. S&P 500 aur Nasdaq 100 indices ne 0.5% ka rise dekha, jabke Dow Jones 247 points se jump karte hue 40,000 mark ke upar close hua.



Aage dekhte hue, USD/JPY pair 100-hour moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai, aur 14-hour RSI oversold conditions ke qareeb aa gaya hai. Qareeb mustaqbil mein, bears further pullbacks ko 156.96 ya 156.14 ke aas-paas target kar sakte hain, jabke bulls 158.55 ya 159.33 ke aas-paas bounces ki talash karenge. Long term mein, bears profits ko 154.50 ya 150.82 ke aas-paas target kar sakte hain, jabke bulls 161.90 ya 165.35 ke aas-paas opportunities dhoondhenge.

USD/JPY Price Studies

Hamari current focus USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ko evaluate karna hai. Primary regulator, Bank of Japan, ne kal bulls ko USD/JPY pair ko upar push karne se roka. H4 chart pe dekha gaya ke price ko heavy EMA tak uthane ke attempts bekaar gaye. Trading din ke end tak, price previous day's minimum se neeche gir gayi, jo buyers ko yeh signal de raha tha ke aggressive intervention continue rahegi, jo upward movement ko roke gi. Regulator ke agle actions ki seriousness agle trading din ki opening ke saath saaf ho jayegi. Lekin, ummeed hai ke woh USD/JPY pair ki price ko niche le aayenge, shayad 151.862 ke qareeb tak, ya daily chart pe heavy EMA 120 ke paas. Filhal, price ne EMA 55 ko test kiya hai. Yeh USD/JPY pair ka outlook hai. Broader picture dekhte hue, USD/JPY pair mein sirf thoda waqt hua hai jab buyers ne pehli baar profit record kiya. Pair ne highs ko thoda update kiya, 160.267 mark se bounce karte hue, naye highs pehli peak se sirf 160 points upar hain.



Buyer ne profit record kiya, jo shayad yen ki recent significant devaluation ki wajah se hua. Pullbacks ki kami robust aur uninterrupted growth ko indicate karti hai. Japanese government steep yen devaluation se faida nahi uthaati, jo unhein market mein verbal intervention karne par majboor karti hai aur buyers ko profit fix karne ke liye kehti hai. Agar growth hoti, toh profit-taking shayad kam hoti. Pullbacks ki kami ke wajah se, buyers accordingly profits fix kar rahe hain. Pair lower move karne ke liye likely hai, 154.671 pe support dhoondte hue. Four-hour chart pe ek uptrend channel bana hai, jo suggest karta hai ke pair is trend ko apne base tak follow karega, jo ke support 156.820 hai, aur shayad aur neeche gir kar 155.029 tak pohnch jayega. Significant buying volumes shayad 157.926 support ke qareeb dekhe gaye. Buyers ne limits set kiye hain, lekin pair phir bhi retraced hua.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) ne apni June monetary policy meeting mein Quantitative Tightening (QT) plan ke tafseelat provide nahi kiye, jis wajah se market participants Japanese monetary policy ke future trajectory ke bare mein goomgoomi ka shikar hain. Yeh ambiguity ne USD/JPY currency pair par aham asar dala, jo yen ke April/May intervention se gains ko reverse kar diya. May 3 ko 151.856 ke low se, yeh pair July 3 ko 161.951 ke high tak pahunch gaya, jo BOJ ki monetary policy stance ka yen ki valuation par critical impact ko underscore karta hai.

BOJ ke QT strategy ke bare mein clarity ki kami ne shayad yen ki weakness mein izafa kiya hai. Market participants ne QT ke liye kuch guidance ya timeline ki tawakku ki thi, lekin BOJ ki khamoshi ne speculation aur uncertainty ke liye guzarish kar di. Yeh uncertainty ne investors ko yen bechne par majboor kar diya hoga, US dollar ke favor mein, jo zyada stable mana jata hai, khaaskar Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ke zyada transparent approach ke madde nazar.

Iske ilawa, USD/JPY pair ka 161.951 tak surge broader macroeconomic factors ko bhi reflect karta hai, khaaskar Japan aur United States ke darmiyan interest rate differentials ko. Federal Reserve ka ongoing tightening cycle, jo ke inflation se larne ke liye interest rates ko barhane se characterized hai, BOJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy se mukhtalif hai. Yeh widening interest rate gap US dollar ko zyada attractive banata hai un investors ke liye jo higher yields ki talash mein hain, jis wajah se USD/JPY pair higher ja raha hai.

US retail sales data bhi is dynamic ko influence karta hai. Strong retail sales figures United States mein robust consumer spending ko dikhate hain, jo ke higher inflation aur consequently, Federal Reserve ke zyada aggressive interest rate hikes ki taraf le ja sakte hain. Yeh prospect of higher US interest rates Japan ke rates ke muqable mein US dollar ke demand ko yen ke against fuel karta hai. Iske baraks, weaker retail sales Fed rate hikes ke expectations ko temper kar sakte hain, jo ke USD/JPY pair par upward pressure ko ease kar sakte hain.

Conclusion mein, USD/JPY pair ka 151.856 se 161.951 tak rise BOJ ke monetary policy stance, ya uski kami, ka currency market par significant influence ko highlight karta hai. BOJ ke June meeting mein QT ke bare mein tafseelat ki kami yen weakness aur dollar strength mein contribute kar rahi hai. Additionally, BOJ aur Federal Reserve ke contrasting policies ke chalte interest rate differentials bhi is movement mein crucial role ada karte hain. US retail sales data bhi ek aur complexity ka layer add karta hai, jo future interest rate adjustments ke expectations ko affect karta hai aur iske extension mein, USD/JPY exchange rate ko. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake is currency pair mein potential volatility ko navigate kar sakein.

Japanese Yen (JPY) ko US dollar ke muqable mein mushkilat ka samna hai. Yeh baat Reuters ki report ke baad samne aayi, jismein Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke July meeting mein policy tabdeelion ke imkanaat ka zikar tha. Report ke mutabiq, BoJ apni 2024 ki economic growth forecast ko kam karne par ghoor raha hai lekin agle kuch saalon mein inflation ko apne 2% target ke qareeb rehne par pur umeed hai. BoJ ka yeh narm stance Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke recent comments se mukhtalif hai, jo inflation data mein behtari ka izhaar karte hain lekin Fed ki ehtiyaati approach par zor dete hain. Yeh mukhtalif central bank policies USD/JPY ke upside potential ko had mein rakh sakti hain.
Yen ke liye muskilat mein izafa, Japan ke Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne lambe arse tak mali sehat ko yaqeen dilaane ke liye fiscal discipline ki ahmiyat ko ubharta hai. Unho ne reportedly BoJ meeting mein bond market par chalne wali behas ko qareebi se dekhne ka zikar bhi kiya. Yeh Japan mein sakht monetary policy ki taraf imkani tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai, jo Yen ko US dollar ke muqable mein kamzor kar sakta hai.

In mushkilat ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair 161.50 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, aur ascending channel pattern mein upward trend ko barqarar rakhta hai. Daily chart par technical analysis bullish outlook dikhata hai, jo 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke 50 ke upar rehne se mazid mazboot hota hai. Yeh USD/JPY pair ke liye strong upside momentum ko zahir karta hai. Aane wale waqt mein, key resistance level jo dekha jaana chahiye woh 162.70 ke qareeb hai, jo ascending channel ke upper boundary par hai. Is level ka breach mazid bullish sentiment ko bhar sakta hai aur pair ko psychological resistance of 163.00 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai.

Lekin, potential downside risks ko acknowledge karna zaroori hai. USD/JPY ke liye initial support 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 159.96 par hai. Is level ke neechay break hone se ascending channel ke lower limit ke qareeb 159.60 ka test ho sakta hai. Agar yeh support toot jata hai, to ek steeper decline ho sakta hai, jo pair ko June low ke qareeb 154.55 tak dhakel sakta hai

Mukammal tor par, USD/JPY pair BoJ ke potentially dovish monetary policy aur Federal Reserve ke ziyada ehtiyaati approach ke darmiyan kashmakash mein hai. Jabke technical indicators uptrend ke continuation ko zahir karte hain, upcoming BoJ meeting aur imkani policy announcements future direction of USD/JPY exchange rate ko tay karne ke liye key factors hain

USD/JPY currency pair ko traders aur investors ne aak qareeb se dekha hai, utsalar haal hi mein ke sessions mein. Abhi, main market mein dakhil hone ka moamla nahi ker raha hoon mojooda qeemat ke darajat ki wajah se. Mera tareeqa yeh hai ke main ek wazeh signal ka muntazir hoon, utsalar agar qeemat ne woh utha hai jo ban gaya hai, neeche chala jata hai. Agar yeh kami hoti hai, to mehsool ki samajh hai ke bael zor se dakhil ho jayenge aur ahem support level 152.34 se bullish correction shuru karenge. Mere liye, behtar dakhil hone ki nakaaroot tab hogi jab yeh correction taqreeban hoti hai. Magar, yeh mumkin hai ke correction na ho. Agar yeh mamla hai, to main trading se fraz karon ga aur bina kisi harkat se market dynamics ko muntazir rahon ga. USD/JPY currency pair ne ek moderate giravat mehsoos ki. Pair ek waqt par tezi se gir gaya lekin phir jaldi se current weekly session ke opening levels par wapas aagaya. Yeh recovery ek lehaz se volatility ki darjaat ko darust karti hai aur yeh ishara karta hai ke market abhi naye trend mein set hone ke liye tayar nahi hai. Hal k movements ke peeche ek wajah yeh bhi hosakti hai ke investors US market opening ke pehle kuch munafa lock kar rahe hain. Munafa lock karna aam hai traders mein jo European session mein banaye gaye faiday ko secure karne ke liye karne ki ichha rakhte hain pehle US markets ke opening ke saath jo volatility ka saamna kar sakti hai. USD/JPY pair ka performance aksar mukhtalif factors se mutasir hota hai jaise economic data releases, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment. Maslan, changes US economic indicators mein jaise employment reports, inflation data, aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions pair par bhaari asar daal sakti hai. isi tarah, Japan mein economic conditions aur policy decisions bhi aham role ada karte hain.
USDJPY ne Jumeraat (6/28/24) ko itihas mein record high qeemat banayi, currency pair mein tezi se izafa ho sakta hai jo ke munafa lenay ki saakh hai. Girawat ka mouqa ab bhi US session tak ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, Bullish channel aur Moving Average par breakout jo ke chal rahi qeemat se oopar hain yeh bearish tajzia mein izafa karte hain.

Aik ghantay ki chart analysis ke mutabiq. 15 M chart par upar bhasa di gayi hai. Is mein bhi girawat ka mouqa hai kyunke Moving Average chal rahi qeemat par hai, jo ke yeh dikhata hai
USD/JPY pair apna bullish trend continue karega, mumkin hai ke ek higher zone tak upar move kare Iss hafte ka trend pattern ek uptrend indicate karta hai narrow range ke sath. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, mumkin hai ke increase agle hafte bhi continue kare, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karengi. Subah ke candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo suggest karta hai ke market trend rise kar sakta hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko surpass kar sakte hain

Amreeki dollar tezi se gir raha tha majoosi hafte ke ziyada tar dafa, lekin 155 yen level ko saath qaim rehnay ka lagta hai. Ye level na sirf ek buland number hai balkay zehni taur par ahmiyat ka markaz bhi hai jise bohat se traders tawajjo se dekhtay hain. Is natijay mein, market mein ek hammer khelne ka andaaza lag raha hai. Agar keemat is candle ki chat ka chhat torh sakay, to ye rasta bana sakta hai 160 yen tak, shayad 162 yen tak bhi.

Agar ye levels paar ho jayen, to agla qadam USD/JPY pair mein hoga. Jahan tak ke Bank of Japan market mein kabhi kabhi taqat daalne ka ilaan karta hai, lekin iske asar ko Japan ki zyada qarzat ki waja se had tak mehdood rakha jata hai. Zyada interest rates Japan ki maaliyat ko shadeed nuqsan pohancha saktay hain, jis se Japan ke paas kuch options reh jaati hain.

Aur ye keemat, Amreeki maeeshat mein mehsoos hone wala taizi inflation, ishara karta hai ke interest rates mazboot rehnay ke imkaanat rakhtay hain aglay waqt tak. Chahe rate kam kiya jaye, wo mamooli hoga - shayad saal ke aakhir tak 25 basis points tak. Aise chhotay tabdeeliyan dono currencies ke bunyadi maqasid ko badalne ki mumkinat kam karti hain.

Mukhtasar sawal ye hai ke USD/JPY pair kya samay ke saath saath chal raha hai, ya phir wo seedha apni raftar jari rakhay ga. Har haal mein, manazir mazeed taizi se jaari rehne par point karte hain aur is market mein short karne ki koi dilchaspi nahi hai. 155 yen jahan ye phase mufeed support ki tarah kaam karta hai, aur jitni der tak yeh qaim rehta hai, utni kam asar se safar ko milti hai.

Mukhtasar mein, USD/JPY pair par aik ahem nishan hai. 155 yen par support zaroori hai, aur mojooda rukh ko paar karne se ooper ki taraf rasta saaf ho sakta hai. Japan ki maali masail ki waja se Bank of Japan ke intervention ka asar kamzor hai, jabke Amreeki maeeshat mein inflation mazboot dollar ko support karta hai. Natijatan, ye pair bull-like rehta hai, jahan traders 160 aur 162 yen tak ke hoslon par tawajjo dete hain.

USD/JPY pair ne chhota sa gap ke saath khula tha, jo Asian session ke doran barabar bhar gaya hai. Mojooda keemat Jumeraat ke daily range ke andar trade ho rahi hai. Jaisa ke maine pehle bhi zikr kiya hai, mera aaj ka mukhya tawajjo support level par qaim rakhne par hai. Meri analysis ke mutabiq, yeh critical support 157.501 ke qareeb hai.

Is support level ke aas paas, do mumkin scenarios samne aa sakte hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke ek reversal candle ban sakta hai, jo upri price movement ki dobara shuruaat ka ishara karega. Is halat mein, main ek bullish reversal pattern ki umeed rakhoonga, jaise ke hammer ya bullish engulfing pattern, jo dikhaye ga ke sellers ke baad buyers phir se control mein aa rahe hain. Is key support level par reversal candle ek taqatwar ishara hoga ke downward momentum kamzor ho raha hai aur bullish trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Agar yeh scenario pura ho jaye, to main umeed karta hoon ke price resistance zone ki taraf jaayega, jo maine 157.22 se 156.84 ke darmiyan identify kiya hai.

Dusra scenario yeh hai ke price support level 157.501 se neeche break kar sakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, to iska matlab hai ke market mein bearish sentiment zyada hai. Is surat-e-haal mein, mujhe aur neeche ki taraf movement ki umeed hogi. Is support level ke break ne bullish reversal scenario ko invalid kar diya hoga aur ishara karega ke sellers control mein hain, jo price ko neeche le ja rahe hain. Agar yeh support level ko neeche sustain karta hai, to isse extended decline bhi ho sakti hai, jisme neeche ke support levels ko target kiya ja sakta hai.

Mera aaj ka plan yeh hai ke 157.501 support level ke aas paas price action ko gehrai se monitor karoon. Agar mujhe bullish reversal candle ki formation dekhne ko mile, to main long position enter karne ka sochoonga, jiske target resistance zone 157.22-156.84 par hoga. Lekin agar price support level ko break karta hai aur wahaan qaim rehta hai, to main apni strategy ko dobara dekhoonga aur possibility dekhoonga ke short position enter karoon, neeche ki momentum se faida uthane ke liye.

USD/JPY pair ne dikhaya hai ke bullish momentum kamzor ho raha hai, ek ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary ko break karte hue. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level ke qareeb hai, jo upar ki taraf momentum ka nuqsan bata raha hai. Pair ka immediate support psychologically significant 109.00 level ke aas paas hai, jahan se neeche break hone par zyada pronounced downward trend shuru ho sakta hai. Mukhalif taur par, resistance 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas 109.82 aur channel ke lower boundary 109.95 ke qareeb hai. Agar pair channel ke andar trading mein laut jaata hai, to bullish sentiment ko dubara bahaal ho sakta hai aur pair ko channel ke upper limit 113.20 ke qareeb le ja sakta hai.

Mukammal taur par, USD/JPY exchange rate ke liye interest rate differentials, sarkari intervention ki mumkinat, aur arzi data releases jaise factors abhi bhi ahmiyat rakhte hain. Traders ko market ki volatility ke liye in developments ko nazdeek se monitor karna chahiye.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) ne apne June monetary policy meeting mein apne Quantitative Tightening (QT) plan ke tafseeli ma'alumat faraham nahin ki, jis se market ke hissadaron ko Japanese monetary policy ke future raaste par shak o shubha hua. Is mushkil haalat ne USD/JPY currency pair par bhi gehra asar dala, jis ne April/May intervention se ki gayi yen ke faizan ko palat diya. 3 May ko 151.856 se neeche girne ke baad, yeh pair 3 July ko 161.951 tak pohanch gaya, jis ne BOJ ki monetary policy stance ki ahmiyat ko izhar kiya.

BOJ ke QT strategy ke baray mein wazahat ke baghair ambiguity ne yen ki kamzori ko barhaya hai. Market ke hissadaron ne QT ke liye kisi guidance ya timeline ki umeed ki thi, lekin BOJ ki khamoshi ne speculation aur uncertainty ke liye jaga chor di. Is uncertainty ne investors ko dollar ki nisbat sthir samjha gaya hai, khas tor par Federal Reserve ke transparent monetary policy ke hawale se.

USD/JPY pair ka 161.951 tak pohnchna bhi macroeconomic factors ko reflect karta hai, khas tor par Japan aur United States ke darmiyan interest rate differentials ko. Federal Reserve ki ongoing tightening cycle, jisme inflation ke mukablay mein interest rates ko barhaya jata hai, BOJ ki ultra-loose monetary policy se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Interest rate gap ki barhti hui feza US dollar ko investors ke liye zyada attractive banati hai, jo higher yields ki talash mein hain, jis se USD/JPY pair ko ooncha le jata hai.

US retail sales data bhi is dynamic ko influence karte hain. United States mein strong retail sales figures strong consumer spending ko zahir karte hain, jo inflation ko barha sakta hai aur iss tarah Federal Reserve ke aggressive interest rate hikes ki expectations ko bhadka sakta hai. Is tarah ke US interest rates ke expectations Japan ke rates ke comparison mein US dollar ki demand ko barhati hain, jo USD/JPY pair ko ooncha karti hai.

Ikhtitami tor par, USD/JPY pair ke 151.856 se 161.951 tak pohnchna Bank of Japan ki monetary policy stance, ya uski absence, ki wazahat ki ahmiyat ko numayan karta hai. QT ke baray mein June meeting mein tafseeli maalumat ki na hona ne yen ki kamzori aur dollar ki taqat mein izafa kiya hai. Is ke ilawa, BOJ aur Federal Reserve ki mukhtalif policies se driven interest rate differentials is movement mein ahmiyat rakhte hain. US retail sales data bhi future interest rate adjustments ke expectations ko affect karte hain aur iss tarah USD/JPY exchange rate par asar andaz hota hai. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake yeh currency pair mein ho sakne wale volatility se nipta ja sake.

USD-JPY M30 ANALYSIS CHART
Hello. Agar hum USD-JPY ke scenario ko mad e nazar rakhein, jo ke shayad uttar ki taraf ja sakta hai, to yeh bhi mumkin hai, aur aisa scenario is trading instrument par asaani se implement ho sakta hai. Agar market khulne ke baad hum yahan se seedha 158.56 ke accumulation tak barh jate hain, aur wahan se agar price niche jati hai aur 157.91 ka level price ko neeche jane nahi deta, to is surat mein 157.91 ke level se hum tezi se upar urh sakte hain, 160.39 ke mark tak jo ke accumulated volumes of money ka area hai. Agar market khulne ke baad USDJPY pair seedha niche jata hai, aur guzra hua price growth humein 157.91 ke important level tak le aaya hai, jo ke asal mein rebound level ho sakta hai, to is surat mein hum initial key mein 156.45 ke accumulation area tak niche ja sakte hain, is level ko test karne ke maqsad se, aur agar aisa sach mein hota hai, to 156.45 ke area mein humein ye samajh aa jayega ke humein yahan se aage kaise aur kidhar move karna chahiye. Jo sellers ko kuch aur figures ka decline provide karta hai; yeh 155.400 hai, aur lower border ko touch karne se buyers ko react karne ka mauka mila aur long positions open karne ka, upar jane ke maqsad se, broken support tak USD/JPY pair ne dikhaya hai ke bullish momentum kamzor ho raha hai, ek ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary ko break karte hue. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level ke qareeb hai, jo upar ki taraf momentum ka nuqsan bata raha hai. Pair ka immediate support psychologically significant 109.00 level ke aas paas hai, jahan se neeche break hone par zyada pronounced downward trend shuru ho sakta hai. Mukhalif taur par, resistance 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas 109.82 aur channel ke lower boundary 109.95 ke qareeb hai. Agar pair channel ke andar trading mein laut jaata hai, to bullish sentiment ko dubara bahaal ho sakta hai aur pair ko channel ke upper limit 113.20 ke qareeb le ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY H4 chart

Pichle hafte ke aakhir mein, pair ne ek positive note par band kiya, jo ke poore hafte ke doran dekhe gaye general upward trend ko jari rakha. Is mahine ke aghaz mein, pair ek buying pattern ke andar trading kar raha tha jo ke pichle do mahino se price trend ko reflect kar raha tha. Pehle price ko monthly pivot level 158.10 se support mili lekin phir ek downward solid wave mein enter hogaya, jo ke monthly pivot level ko tor kar neeche ki taraf chal pada. Price ko monthly level 157.50 par support mili, jis se yeh upar uth kar pichle hafte ke end par monthly pivot level ke upar band hogaya. Jab price is mahine ke opening level ke kareeb pohanchti hai, yeh aane walay dino mein mazeed izafa ka ishara deti hai. Mein foresee karta hoon ke yeh decline karegi middle line of the channel ke 155.56 price level ke qareeb. Recent exchange rate rise ke baad, yeh fall ab bhi jari hai. Ek correction ke baad decline jari rehne ki umeed hai. Mein significant upward impulse expect nahi karta; decline corrective growth ke baad jari rahega. Mein expect karta hoon ke 159.36 ka test hoga, jis ke baad decline wapas shuru hoga. Waqt ke sath, price neeche ki taraf kheechi jayegi, gradually buyers ko market se nikal kar unhe lower levels par sell karne ke liye majboor karegi. Hum shayad ek false breakout dekhein 159.44 par, jiske baad girawat jari rahegi. Priority exchange rate ko neeche le jana aur medium term mein sales open karna hogi, khaaskar agar 157.29 ka range likely hai.


Thursday ko, Japanese yen ne US dollar ke mukable 157.41 par surge kiya, pehle ke 38 saal ke low 161.5 se sharply rebound karta hua. Yeh reversal US mein weak inflation data release hone ke baad aaya, jo ke dollar par pressure daal raha tha aur Federal Reserve ke nazdeek future mein US interest rates cut karne ki umeed ko mazid barhawa de raha tha. Aisa move substantial interest rate differential ko narrow kar dega jo Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan hai, jinki ultra-accommodative stance ne is saal yen ki significant depreciation mein hissa dala. USD/JPY pair ka sharp rise 161.5 level se economic data releases ke forex markets par impact ko highlight karta hai. Inflation data khaaskar bohot important hota hai kyun ke yeh seedha central bank policies ko influence karta hai. Recent weak US inflation figures ne market participants ko anticipate karwaya ke Federal Reserve ke monetary policy mein shift aayega, tightening se easing ki taraf, jo ke dollar ki appeal ko yen ke mukable mein reduce karega. Technically, USD/JPY ka rebound 38 saal ke low se ek correction ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai broader downtrend ke andar. Pair ka movement 157.41 ki taraf suggest karta hai ke market naye economic realities ke saath adjust kar raha hai aur interest rate policies ke hawale se expectations ko recalibrate kar raha hai. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake pair ki potential future direction ko behtar samajh sakein.

Chaliye USD/JPY currency pair ki price behavior ka jaiza lete hain. Tuesday ko USD/JPY pair Asian trading mein 161.01 mark ke qareeb tha. Fed rate cut ki barhawa expectations ki wajah se risk aversion ne pair ki recent growth mein apna hissa dala. Sab ki nazarain Fed Chairman Powell ki speech par hain, taki further policy guidance mil sake. Tuesday ko USD/JPY pair 161.01 ke ird gird trading kar raha tha. Daily chart analysis se pata chalta hai ke pair ab bhi ascending channel mein hai, jo bullish mood ko indicate karta hai.
Iske ilawa, momentum indicator, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), 50 se upar hai, jo bullish trend ko confirm karta hai. USD/JPY pair 162.56 ki key resistance ko test kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level cross ho jata hai, toh bullish sentiment mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, aur pair ko psychological resistance 163.01 tak le ja sakta hai

Conversely, USD/JPY pair ko immediate support 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) par 159.79 ke qareeb mil sakta hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh pair pressure mein aa sakta hai, aur ascending channel ki lower limit 159.41 ko test kar sakta hai. Agar support level ke niche aur girawat hoti hai, toh pair June low 154.56 tak pohanch sakta hai. USD/JPY chart mein support level 160.26 se pronounced price rebound dikhai de raha hai. Agar price is level se niche nahi girti, toh yeh 161.81 ke accumulation area tak barh sakti hai, taki is level ko test kar sake. Agar USD/JPY level 161.81 par nahi tikta, toh price 161.81 se gir kar 158.89 ke ird gird aa sakti hai, meri analysis ke mutabiq. Jabke USD/JPY pair ascending channel mein bullish trend dikhata hai, critical support aur resistance levels iski future movement ko determine karenge. Traders ko in levels ke upar ya niche breaks ko dekhna chahiye taaki potential trading opportunities mil sake