جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

دسمبر 17 2024 کے لیے برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

پیر کو، برطانوی پاؤنڈ میں 60 پِپس کا اضافہ ہوا، جو 1.2708 کی کلیدی مزاحمتی سطح کے قریب پہنچ گیا، جو بیلنس لائن کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔ تاہم، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی اچانک کمزوری پاؤنڈ کی اس مزاحمت کو مضبوطی سے طے کرنے کی صلاحیت پر شک پیدا کرتی ہے۔



اگر قیمت 1.2708 سے اوپر مستحکم ہوتی ہے تو، 1.2816/47 کی ہدف کی حد کی طرف مزید نقل و حرکت کو بدھ کو طے شدہ فیڈرل ریزرو کی مانیٹری پالیسی میٹنگ کی وجہ سے چیلنجوں کا سامنا کرنا پڑے گا۔ جمعرات کو ہونے والی بینک آف انگلینڈ کی میٹنگ پاؤنڈ کو ہدف کی حد تک واپس لے سکتی ہے، لیکن یہ ممکنہ طور پر ایک مختصر مدتی رجحان ہے۔ دوسرے الفاظ میں، ہفتے کے آخر تک پاؤنڈ میں زیادہ اتار چڑھاؤ متوقع ہے۔

٤- گھنٹے کے ٹائم فریم میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر مثبت علاقے میں چلا گیا ہے۔ قیمت کو فی الحال دو مزاحمتی سطحوں کا سامنا ہے: 1.2708 اور 1.2742 (ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن )۔

اگر قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے اوپر مستحکم ہوتی ہے اور فیڈرل ریزرو کا فیصلہ سازگار پس منظر پیدا کرتا ہے، تو پاؤنڈ 1.2816/47 کی حد کو نشانہ بنا سکتا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Sterling Keeps Recovering on Hot UK Wages Data

Sterling ne Tuesday ko European trade mein doosre din US dollar ke khilaaf recovery ki aur two-week lows se door hua strong UK wages data ke baad.

Zyada UK Wages aur Inflation
UK mein wages ke izafa se demand aur consumption barh sakte hain, jo inflation ko upar le jayenge aur Bank of England (BoE) ke rate cut ke chances ko hurt karenge.

Price
GBP/USD pair 0.2% se zyada barh kar $1.2707 tak pohanch gaya, jab ke session-low $1.2666 tha.
Monday ko pair 0.5% barha, jo chaar din ke baad pehla profit tha aur November 27 ke baad sabse bara izafa tha, jab ke two-week trough $1.2608 tha.
Pound ko December ke strong UK services data se bhi boost mila.

UK Wages

• October ke 3 mahine ke UK average wages 5.2% tak barh gaye, jo May ke baad se sabse zyada hain aur estimates 4.6% se upar rahe. September ke comparison mein yeh 4.3% se izafa hai.
• UK unemployment rate October mein 4.3% par stable raha, jo expectations ke mutabiq hai aur September ke barabar hai.

UK Rates

• Wages data ke baad, 0.25% Bank of England interest rate cut ke odds sirf 5% tak gir gaye.
• Interest rate futures ab 2025 ke end tak total 61 basis points ke BoE rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jo pehle ke 69 basis points se kam hain.

Bank of England apni policy decision agle Thursday ko karega, aur umeed hai ke interest rates unchanged rahenge.

Sterling Gains as UK Earnings Rise, Job Market Steady
British Pound (GBP) ko Average Earnings Index ke stronger-than-expected data ke baad edge mila, jo 5.2% tak barh gaya pichle 4.3% se, aur 4.6% ke forecast ko beat kiya. Claimant Count Change significant tor par 0.3K tak gir gaya, jo pichle mahine ke 28.2K se kaafi neeche hai, jo labor market ke stabilize hone ki nishani hai.

Unemployment Rate 4.3% par unchanged raha, jo expectations ke barabar tha. Ab UK ke kisi bhi major data ke na hone par, markets ka focus ab US Retail Sales par hoga short-term direction ke liye.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Dollar Index (DXY) $106.89 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.03% upar hai aur apne bullish stance ko pivot point $106.76 ke upar maintain kar raha hai. Immediate resistance $107.19 par hai, jab ke agla barrier $107.51 hai. Neeche, support $106.42 par hai, jo closely 200 EMA $106.41 ke saath aligned hai.

Upward channel abhi tak intact hai, jo bullish bias ko support kar raha hai, jab ke 50 EMA $106.77 pivot point ke paas strength ko reinforce kar raha hai. Agar DXY $106.76 ke upar sustain karta hai, toh yeh index ko key resistance levels tak le ja sakta hai, dollar demand ke boost se.

GBP/USD ab $1.26972 par trade kar raha hai, jo 0.12% upar hai aur pivot point $1.26663 ke upar hover kar raha hai. Immediate resistance $1.27375 par hai, jab ke agla upside barrier $1.27977 par hai. Neeche, support $1.26046 par hai, aur uske baad $1.25255 deeper floor ke tor par kaam karega.

50 EMA $1.26847 ke paas current prices ke saath closely align kar raha hai, jo near-term strength signal kar raha hai, jab ke 200 EMA $1.27048 overhead pressure de raha hai. Agar GBP/USD $1.26663 ke upar sustain karta hai, toh bullish momentum reinforce hoga aur agle resistance levels target honge.

Lekin agar pivot point ke neeche break hota hai, toh sentiment sharply bearish ho sakta hai aur neeche ke supports expose honge. Filhaal, GBP/USD apni slight bullish bias ko $1.26663 ke upar maintain kar raha hai.

"GBP/USD ka daily chart ka analysis karte hue ye nazar aa raha hai ke price ne October ke baad se ek significant decline ka samna kiya, jisse market ne neeche ke levels test kiye. Is waqt price 1.2710 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo recent support ke taur par kaam kar raha hai. Chart par do key resistance levels hain: pehla 1.2831 ka level, jo abhi tak major hurdle hai, aur doosra 1.3044 ka level, jo price ke upper recovery ke liye ek major challenge hoga. Market ne November ke baad se thodi recovery ki koshish ki, lekin price 1.2831 ke upar sustain karne mein fail raha hai. Abhi price ke upar ka pressure clear hai kyun ke moving averages (specially 50 aur 200 MA) downward slope par hain, jo bearish sentiment ko reflect karte hain. Agar price 1.2831 ka level todta hai, to agla target 1.3044 hoga jahan strong resistance aur moving average convergence nazar aa raha hai. Yeh zone sellers ke liye critical hoga. Neeche ki taraf agar price 1.2710 ke support ko todta hai, to GBP/USD neeche ke levels ko retest kar sakta hai, aur agla downside target 1.2500 ho sakta hai. Iss waqt chart par consolidation ki situation dikh rahi hai, jahan buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan fight chal rahi hai. Stochastic oscillator ka analysis yeh batata hai ke market slightly oversold area se nikal kar ab neutral position mein aa rahi hai. Iska matlab yeh ho sakta hai ke short-term me thodi upward movement dekhne ko mile, lekin confirmation ke liye price ka 1.2831 level ke upar close karna zaroori hai. Traders ke liye is waqt sabr aur confirmation ka wait karna zaroori hai. Agar price resistance levels ke upar breakout karta hai, to buy setups ban sakte hain. Lekin agar price neeche ke support ko todta hai, to sellers ke liye nayi opportunities samne aayengi. Risk management ko zaroor madde nazar rakhein aur impulsive trades se bachne ki koshish karen."

"Market Trend Analysis: September Se December Tak Ka Safar"
Is chart ko dekhte hue yeh saaf nazar aata hai ke market ne September ke mahine mein strong upward movement ke baad apna direction badla aur October se girawat shuru hui. Price ne October ke pehle hisson mein high banaya, lekin uske baad lagataar bearish trend dekha gaya. Yeh downward movement November ke mid tak jaari rahi, jahan price ne apna lowest level choo liya.
November ke second half mein price ne consolidation ka phase dikhaya. Is waqt market ke candles ne ek range-bound trading ka pattern banaya, jahan buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan struggle nazar aayi. December ke start mein price thodi stability ki taraf aata nazar aya. Chhoti green candles yeh signal kar rahi hain ke shayad market apne bottom ke kareeb hai aur yahan se thoda recovery ka scope ban raha hai.
Is waqt price 1.2700 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo ek important support aur resistance level ke beech ka signal de raha hai. Agar price yeh level todta hai, toh market mein nayi movement aa sakti hai. Lekin jab tak price is level ke kareeb hai, market sideways ya range-bound hi reh sakti hai. Investors aur traders ke liye yeh waqt zaroori hai ke wo apne strategies ko carefully plan karein, kyun ke yeh range break hone par market kisi bhi direction mein strong move kar sakti hai.
Chart ke analysis ke mutabiq, agar buyers ka pressure barhta hai, toh market upward ja sakta hai, lekin agar selling pressure dominate karta hai, toh price fir se neeche gir sakta hai. December ke last dino mein yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke price ka reaction support aur resistance ke level ke kareeb kaisa rehta hai.
Summary:
Market ka trend abhi consolidate kar raha hai aur price key level 1.2700 ke aas-paas hai. Traders ke liye yeh waqt critical hai, kyun ke agle kuch dino mein market mein ek strong breakout ya breakdown ka chance hai jo nayi direction ka signal de sakta hai.

GBP/USD pair ek aham mor par khara hai, jahan traders ki tawajjo aham economic data aur central bank events par hai. Haal hi mein British Pound ne U.S. Dollar ke muqablay mein izafa kiya aur $1.2704 tak pohcha, jo ke October tak ke 3 mahine ke UK wage growth ke mazboot honay ki wajah se tha. Mazboot wage growth ye ishara karti hai ke UK mein inflation ka dabao barqarar hai jo market ke expectations ko mazboot karta hai ke Bank of England (BoE) apni hawkish policy ko sustain karega. UK ka inflation abhi bhi target se kaafi zyada hai aur mazboot labor market data is baat ko support karta hai ke BoE ko restrictive monetary policy barqarar rakhni chahiye taake price pressures ka muqabla kiya ja sake.Lekin is tightening ka economic growth par asar par sakta hai jo BoE ke liye ek delicate balance banata hai. Doosri taraf Federal Reserve ka aanay wala rate decision GBP/USD ki dynamics ko aur complex bana raha hai. Traders Fed ki guidance par nazar rakhe hue hain, khaas tor par 2024 mein kisi dovish tone ki taraf signal ki talash mein, jo rate cuts ka ishara de sakta hai. Aisi surat mein Dollar kamzor ho sakta hai aur Pound ko mazid support mil sakta hai. Lekin agar Fed apni hawkish policy ko reinforce karta hai, to Dollar mazboot hoga aur GBP/USD ki gains ko limit kar sakta hai.
Technical taur par GBP/USD abhi consolidation phase mein trade kar raha hai. $1.2730 pe immediate resistance hai aur $1.2650 pe strong support. Agar price $1.2730 ke upar breakout kare, to $1.2800 psychological level test ho sakta hai. Lekin agar $1.2650 ka support toot jaye, to price $1.2600 tak gir sakta hai, jo pair ke liye mazeed downside risk create karega.Future mein, GBP/USD ka trajectory domestic aur global factors ke interplay se tay hoga.Short-term mein upbeat wage data aur BoE ke hawkish stance se Pound ko support milta hai lekin global risk sentiment aur geopolitical developments jaise external shocks isko asar andaz kar sakty hain. Agar Fed dovish signal de aur BoE mazboot stance le to Sterling apni recovery extend kar sakta hai.Lekin agar BoE zyada cautious tone adopt kare ya economic slowdown ka dar izhar kare to Pound ko nayi selling pressure ka samna karna par sakta hai.Isi tarah agar Fed hawkish surprise de aur strong economic data iske position ko support kare, to Dollar ki demand barh sakti hai jo Pound ki gains ko offset karega.Is hafte UK inflation data BoE policy decision aur Fed guidance ke combined impact se GBP/USD ke range-bound movement ka future aur clear direction ka tay hona mumkin hai.

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Pound/dollar ki jodi ne kal apne faide ko badhaya. Halankeh, iski tezi ka daud pur aitemad nahin thi, kiyunkeh farokht karne wale market par qabzah karne aur dobarah control hasil karne ki koshish kar rahe the.
Trend indicators ke mutabiq, niche ka rujhan ek tarjih hai, lekin 1.3432 se 1.2486 tak mandi ki lahar me kam az kam islah abhi tak mukammal nahin hui hai. Lehaza, aaj musalsal ooper ki harkat ke imkan ko kharij nahin kiya ja sakta hai.



1-ghante ke chart ke mutabiq, Bartanwi pound me tezi jari rahne ka imkan hai kiyunkeh qimat is waqt tez zigzag bana rahi hai. Aaj, taraqqi ki teesri lahar ki tawaqqo karna kafi mumkin hai. Yah scenario ki tasdiq tab hogi jab qimat 1.2718 (123.6% Fibonacci level) ki muzahmati satah ko tod degi, jise kal tin bar ghalat tariqe se toda gaya tha.
Filhal, kal ki rally ke bad pound/dollar ka joda piche hatt raha hai. Is tarah, is bat ka bahut zyada imkan hai keh qimat 1.2697 ke nishan ka test karegi, jo 100% Fibonacci level ke sath mawafiq hai, jahan market ke radde amal ko dekhna aur natijah akhaz karna qabile qadar hoga.
Agar qimat 1.2697 support satah ko todne me nakam rahti hai to, pound/dollar ka joda apne faide ko kam az kam 1.2732 kimuzahmati satah tak badha dega, jo keh 138.2% Fibonacci level ke sath mawafiq hai. Chunkeh aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me Bartaniya ke inflation data aur Fed ke sud ki sherah ke faisle jaise aham khabron ki release ka ek batch shamil hai, lehaza market me utar-chadhaw badhne ki ummid hai, jiski wajah se qimaton me zabardast utar chadhaw aayega.

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum!
Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh pound/dollar ka joda 1.2570 ki satah par fisal jayega, jahan long positions kholna danishmandi hogi. Sab se zyada mumkena scenario kami ki tajwiz karta hai. Aakhir kar, aaj euro ki qadar khone ki ummid hai, aur imkan hai keh sterling is par amal karegi. Mutabadil taur par, koi bhi kal ki bulandiyon ke qarib 1.2738-1.2745 par short positions khol sakta hai. Maine abhi tak yah faisla nahin kiya hai keh pending order ke sath market me dakhil hona hai ya market ki qimaton par. Bahut kuch is bat par munhasar karega keh Bank of England aur Federal Reserve ki janib se sud ki sherah ke faislon ka ailan karne se pahle Bartanwi pound ki jodi kahan hai.

دسمبر 18 2024 کے لیے برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

منگل کو، برطانوی پاؤنڈ میں 27 پپس کا اضافہ ہوا، جس نے سیشن کے دوران مختصر طور پر اس کی خلاف ورزی کرنے کے بعد 1.2708 مزاحمتی سطح کے نیچے دن بند کیا۔ آج، پاؤنڈ قدرے کمزور ہونے لگتا ہے کیونکہ بیلنس لائن پہنچی ہوئی سطح کو مضبوط کرتی ہے۔ آج کی توجہ فیڈرل ریزرو کے شرح 0.25 فیصد کم کرنے کے فیصلے پر مرکوز ہو گی، جس میں بینک آف انگلینڈ کے کل شرحیں برقرار رکھنے کے متوقع فیصلے پر غور کیا جائے گا۔



خالصتاً تکنیکی نقطہ نظر سے، پاؤنڈ میں 1.2816/47 رینج میں ممکنہ منتقلی کے لیے تمام شرائط موجود ہیں، یہاں تک کہ مارکیٹ کے رجحان کے خلاف غلط بریک آؤٹ کے طور پر، اگر مارکیٹ نیچے کی سمت اختیار کرتی ہے تو 1.2616 کی سطح سے نیچے واپسی کے ساتھ۔ تاہم، پاؤنڈ کے لیے موجودہ جذبات قدرے مندی کا شکار دکھائی دیتے ہیں، جیسا کہ مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک الٹ جانے کا اشارہ کرتا ہے۔

ایچ -٤ چارٹ پر، قیمت بیلنس لائن مزاحمت کے اوپر ٹوٹنے کا انتظام نہیں کر سکی۔ 1.2708 کی سطح سے اوپر کوئی استحکام نہیں تھا۔ مارلن قیمت کے ساتھ مل کر آگے بڑھ رہی ہے۔ ریورسل سیٹ اپ کو توڑے بغیر، قیمت 1.2750 پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن مزاحمت کی جانچ کر سکتی ہے۔ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے اوپر ایک وقفہ 1.2816/47 کی ہدف کی حد کو کھول دے گا۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Sterling BOE Meeting Se Pehle Increase Hota Hua

Sterling European trade mein Wednesday ko bade rivals ke muqable mein barhta raha, US dollar ke muqable mein teesri musalsal session mein barh gaya, jabke US consumer prices data ne dikhaya ke inflation doosi musalsal month ke liye barhi hai.

Inflationary pressures dobara shuru hone ke sath, Bank of England ke policymakers is haftay ke policy meeting mein interest rates cut karne se guraiz karenge.

Price
GBP/USD pair 0.1% se zyada barh kar $1.2727 par pohanch gaya, jab session-low $1.2680 record hua.

Tuesday ko pair 0.25% barh kar close hua, doosi musalsal profit ke liye raah banate huay, aur do-week lows $1.2608 se door chala gaya.

Pound ne October ke strong UK wages data ke baad momentum gain kiya.

UK Inflation
UK consumer prices November mein 2.6% y/y barhi, jo expectations ke mutabiq thi, aur October ke 2.3% se zyada thi.

Core prices, jo food aur energy ko exclude karti hain, 3.5% barhi, jo estimates (3.6%) se kam thi, lekin October ke 3.3% se upar thi.

Services prices November mein 5% barhi, jo October ke barabar hai.

Yeh data UK mein inflationary pressures ki taqat dikhata hai, jo tight monetary policies ke lambay period ka sabab ban sakta hai.

UK Rates
Is data ke baad, Bank of England ke taraf se 0.25% interest rate cut ke chances sirf 2% par aa gaye hain.

UK interest rate futures market ab expect kar raha hai ke BOE 2025 ke end tak total 60 basis points ka rate cut karega, jo inflation data se pehle 61% tha.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
British Pound (GBP) stable raha jab UK CPI y/y 2.6% hit kiya, jo forecasts ke mutabiq aur pehle ke 2.3% se zyada hai. Core CPI 3.5% tak barhi, jo expected 3.6% se thoda kam hai, lekin inflationary pressures mein easing ko reflect karti hai.

PPI Input 0.0% par ruk gaya, jabke PPI Output 0.3% tak improve hua. Retail Price Index (RPI) 3.6% tak barha.

Markets ab HPI y/y aur CBI Industrial Order Expectations ka intezar kar rahi hain jo Sterling ke liye mazeed direction de sakti hain.

GBP/USD pair $1.27086 par trade kar raha hai, aur key $1.26952 pivot point ke upar hover kar raha hai. Immediate resistance $1.27698 par hai, aur bullish momentum kay sath agla target $1.28108 ho sakta hai. Downside par, immediate support $1.26511 par hai, jabke deeper support $1.26046 par hai.

Technical indicators mix hain, 50 EMA $1.26926 slight bullish support deta hai, aur 200 EMA $1.27049 gains ko cap kar raha hai. Agar price $1.26952 ke upar sustain hoti hai, to bullish bias confirm hota hai, jabke is pivot ke neeche break selling pressure ka ishara de sakta hai.

"GBP/USD ka price action chart humein clear downward trend show kar raha hai jo November ke start se lekar mid-December tak dekhne ko mila. Candlestick pattern ke mutabiq market ne consistent bearish momentum maintain kiya tha, jiska matlab yeh hai ke sellers ka pressure zyada tha. Lekin mid-December ke baad humein thoda sa consolidation dekhne ko mil raha hai, jahan price stabilize karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yani ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan thoda balance nazar aa raha hai.
Chart ke upar ek yellow line bhi dikh rahi hai jo 50-period Moving Average (MA) hai. Moving Average ka purpose price ke overall trend ko smooth karna hota hai. Yahan MA clearly batata hai ke price abhi tak iske neeche chal raha hai, jo ek bearish signal hota hai. Jab tak price is MA ke upar nahi jata, hum yeh nahi keh sakte ke market ne apna trend change kar liya hai. Yeh resistance ka kaam karega.
Neeche wali indicator line RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka chart hai jo market ka momentum aur strength dikhata hai. RSI ka range 0 se 100 ke darmiyan hota hai, aur 70 ke upar market overbought hoti hai jabke 30 ke neeche oversold. Is chart mein RSI ne pehle strong bearish move ke baad 30 ke qareeb touch kiya, jo signal deta hai ke market oversold thi. Uske baad RSI thoda recover karte hue upar gaya, jo price ke thode stabilization ka indication hai.
Agar hum analysis karein toh GBP/USD ka current price action yeh batata hai ke agar market consolidation phase ke baad upar move kare toh yeh 50-MA ka retest kar sakta hai. Lekin agar bearish pressure wapis aata hai toh price neeche ki taraf aur gir sakta hai.
Short-term traders ke liye RSI aur candlestick patterns ka analysis karna zaroori hai, jabke long-term traders ke liye Moving Average aur overall trend ko samajhna important hoga. Trading ke liye risk management aur stop loss ka khayal zaroor rakhna chahiye."

Main southern targets ki baat kar raha hoon, khas kar 23rd figure ki taraf move ke chances dekh raha hoon. Lekin abhi GBP/USD instrument ke liye full-fledged southern move ka kehna thoda jaldi hoga, kyunke bears ne neeche jaane ke liye achi position banayi hai, magar ye ziada tar long positions kholne ka ek aur mauqa provide karenge. Wednesday ki shaam ek surprise thi sterling bulls ke liye, jahan ek sharp impulse aur confident upward movement nazar aayi. Bears pichle hafte ke losses recover karne mein successful rahe. H4 time frame par 1.2620 ka support level bohot strong nikla, jahan bulls ne sterling ko upar bounce karne ka chance diya. Ab dekhna yeh hoga ke Asia aur Australia ki trading is downward momentum ko support karti hai ya nahi. Agar H4 par candle 1.2620 ke neeche close hoti hai, toh yeh signal hoga ke selling pressure abhi bhi dominant hai.Agar price 1.2620 ke neeche close karta hai, toh bears ke paas 1.25 ke significant support level tak price push karne ka mauqa hoga. Lekin mujhe lagta hai ke 1.25 ke neeche break mushkil hoga. Agar price 1.25 ko retest karta hai aur wahan se bounce hota hai, toh mera forecast hoga ke GBP/USD pair wapas 1.2620 ki taraf correct karega. Agar buyers 1.2620 ke upar aane mein successful hote hain, toh bullish momentum aur barh sakta hai, aur 1.27 ka target realistic ho jata hai.
UK ke political shift jo ek left-leaning government ki taraf gaya hai aur Bank of England ki conservative monetary policy ne Pound ko temporary support diya hai, lekin global trade tensions aur uncertain economic environment iski upside potential ko limit karte hain. GBP/USD ke future forecasts mixed hain. Medium-term mein kuch analysts pair ke strengthen hone ki baat karte hain, jabke kuch cautious hain uncertainties ki wajah se. December 2024 ke liye forecast 1.2672 hai aur December 2025 ke liye 1.2800. Overall, GBP/USD pair domestic aur global headwinds face kar raha hai. Inflation data kuch temporary support de sakta hai lekin long-term outlook uncertain lagta hai.Traders ko macroeconomic indicators aur central bank policies ko closely monitor karna hoga taake informed decisions liye ja sakein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

UK Inflation Jumps to 8-Month High, Pound Shrugs

UK mein November ke mahine mein inflation 2.6% tak barh gaya hai, jo March ke baad ka sabse uncha level hai. Is izafay ka sabab petrol aur khanay ke masrufat mein izafa aur budget mein tobacco duty ke barhne ko mana ja raha hai. Services inflation jo ke consistently high raha hai, apni jagah 5% par barqarar hai. CPI ka ye reading market ke estimate ke mutabiq hai, aur British pound ne iss par lagbhag koi khaas reaction nahi dikhaya. Monthly basis par, CPI mein 0.1% ka izafa hua, jo October ke 0.6% se kam hai aur expectations ke mutabiq hai.

Core Inflation Aur Uska Asar

Core inflation, jo ke inflation ke trends ko samajhne ka ek behtareen scale mana jata hai, October ke 3.3% se barh kar 3.5% y/y par pohanch gaya, jo August ke baad ka sabse uncha level hai. Market ka estimate 3.6% tha, jo thoda higher tha. Core inflation ka ye izafa Bank of England (BoE) ke liye concern ka sabab banega, khas kar jab services inflation aur wage growth ke hawale se bhi pressure barh raha hai. Employment report ne dikhaya ke bonuses ko chhor kar wages 5.2% tak barh chuki hain, jo pehle 4.4% thi.

BoE Ka Faisla Aur Strategy

Inflation ke barhne ke bawajood, tawaqqu hai ke Bank of England apne Thursday ki meeting mein cash rate 4.75% par hi barqarar rakhega. BoE ne is saal June se do martaba rates cut kiye hain, lekin ab wo inflation ko 2% ke target ki taraf jhuktay hue dekhna chahte hain pehle ke koi aage ke rate cuts implement kiye jayen. Central bank ka maanna hai ke abhi inflation largely contained hai, lekin services inflation aur core inflation ke numbers unke liye dikkat ka sabab hain.

Agar inflation aur wage growth ke hawale se mazeed barhti hui report samne aati hai, to BoE ke liye ye zaroori hoga ke wo apne rate cut strategy ko reconsider karein. Hal filhal mein, BoE ki priority yehi hai ke wo inflation ko ek manageable level par le kar aayein.

Federal Reserve Ka Faisla Aur Dollar Ki Halat

Doosri taraf, Federal Reserve bhi apna rate decision announce karne wala hai. Market already ek quarter-point rate cut ko price kar chuka hai, jo 4.75% se gir kar 4.5% hone wala hai. Fed ka focus inflation aur labor market ke indicators par hoga. President-elect Trump ke office sambhalne ke asar bhi policymaking mein ek uncertainty barhane wale hain.

U.S. Dollar Index ne apni position barhayi hai, aur resistance level 107.10–107.30 ke kareeb pohanch raha hai. Agar Dollar Index 107.30 ke level ko todta hai, to agla resistance 108.30–108.50 ke aas-paas hoga. Dollar ka mazboot hona baaki currencies par asar dalta hai, jo GBP/USD ki downward trend ke liye bhi ek indicator ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

British pound inflation data ke hawale se sensitive raha hai, aur GBP/USD ne neeche ka rukh apnaya. November ke liye inflation rate 2.3% se barh kar 2.6% ho gaya, jo analyst expectations ke mutabiq tha. Core inflation rate bhi 3.3% se barh kar 3.5% tak pohanch gaya, lekin 3.6% ke consensus ke zyada kareeb nahi tha.

Agar GBP/USD resistance level 1.2700–1.2715 ke upar jata hai, to agla target 1.2850–1.2870 hoga. Lekin agar pound inflation ke hawale se koi mazboot position nahi dikhata, to downside ka imkaan zyada hoga, aur support levels ko test kar sakta hai.


GBP/USD

Inflation Ka Asar Petrol Aur Khane Par

Petrol aur khanay ki cheezon ki qeemat mein izafa UK ke logon ke liye mehngai ka sabab ban raha hai. Ye mehngai na sirf rozmarra ke masrufat ko asar dal rahi hai, balki ye services sector ko bhi sustain karna mushkil bana rahi hai. Tobacco duty ke izafay se bhi inflation ko push mila hai, jo ke common households ke budget ko tight kar raha hai.

Waqti taur par, monthly CPI ka pace dheema par raha hai, jo inflation ko niche lana shuru karne ki umeed deta hai. Lekin core aur services inflation ke consistently high rehne se lagta hai ke BoE ke liye ye abhi bhi ek badi policy challenge banayega.

BoE Ki Agli Chal Aur Market Expectations

Market ke players ab BoE ki next move ke liye speculation kar rahe hain. Agle mahino mein agar inflation ka pace dheema hota hai, to rate cuts ka ek naya silsila shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin wage growth aur inflation ke hawale se koi bhi surprise hawkish stance ko revive kar sakta hai.

Economic indicators, jese GDP growth aur consumer spending, bhi iss equation ka hissa hain. Agar consumer spending inflation ke barhne ke bawajood mazboot rehti hai, to BoE ke liye policy mein flexibility kam ho jayegi. Isliye, agle kuch mahino ke economic data ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga.

UK inflation ka barhna ek warning signal hai, lekin abhi ke liye BoE ka focus isse manage karne aur economic stability ko barqarar rakhne par hai. Dollar ki mazbooti aur Federal Reserve ke decisions bhi GBP/USD par directly asar dalte hain. Agar inflation aur wage growth continue karte hain, to BoE ke liye policy banane ka kaam aur mushkil banega. Investors aur traders ke liye ye samajhna zaroori hoga ke short-term aur long-term developments dono kis tarah policy direction ko shape karte hain.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Meri rai me, market sharks Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke bayanat par yaqin nahin karte hain. Federal Reserve ne December me sud ki sherah me izafa kiya aur fir January me uhein km kar diya, halankeh policy sazon ne kahan keh woh sherahon me izafa jari rakhenge, aur yah wahid mamla nahin hai. Ab bahut kuch stock market par munhasar hoga, jo December me pahle hi 5 fisad gir chuka hai. Agar isme kami jari rahti hai to, Fed mumkena taur par tawaqqo se kahin zyada tezi se sud me kami karega. Jahan tak pound/dollar ke jode ka talluq hai, sab ki nazrein aaj Bank of Englnad ki meeting par hongi. Filhal, Bartanwi pound 1.2562-1.2582 ki support satah se ooper karobar kar raha hai. Agar qimat aaj 1.2676 ki muzahmati satah tak badh jati hai to, mai yaqini taur par dobara short positions kholunga.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal, jaisa keh tawaqqo thi, US Federal Reserve ne apni kaledi sud ki sherah me 25 basisi points ki kami ki. Uske bad munaqid press conference me, Fed ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne rewayati taur par kahan keh mazid policy eqdamat aane wale aidad o shumar aur inflation ke khatrat par munhasar honge. Sath hi, Fed ke zyadatar hukkam ab 100 basis point ki katauti ke bajaye agle sal 50 basis point ki sherah me kami ki tawaqqo rakhte hain, jaisa keh September me hua tha. Is tarah, agli sherah me kami ab March ke bajaye June me mutawaqqe hai, jaisa keh meeting se pahle hua tha. Is pas manzar me, dollar me tezi aayi hai hai, jiski wajah se pound/dollar ka joda 1.26 ke nishan se niche gir gaya hai. Iske alawa, koi bhi chiz Bartanwi pound ko nuqsanat badhane se nahin tokti. Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh pound/dollar ka joda wapas ucchalne se pahle markazi range ki hadd 1.25 ki satah tak fisal jayega. Agar qimat is satah ko tod deti hai to, mandi ka rujhan jari rahega, pound sterling 1.23 ki agli hadaf ki satah ki taraf bad raha hai.



Volume profile se pata chalta hai keh qimat do hajam ke darmiyan hai. Agar qimat markazi volume zone me wapas aa jati hai to, ya h taqriban 1.28 par pani balayi hadd par ja sakti hai. Agar qimat nichli hadd par jati hai to, 1.24 ki satah tak girawat mumkin hai.



Lehaza, maujudah tejarati range ab bhi ek tarjih hai.
Good luck and profitable trading!

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Envelopes ke mutabiq, pound/dollar ka joda 1-ghante aur 4-ghante ke chart par taqriban 1.2562 - 1.2582 ke support zone me gir gaya hai. Filhal, Bartanwi pound 1.2582 ki satah par trade kar raha hai. Misali taur par, pound/dollar ka joda is zone se ucchal kar 1.2676 ki muzahmati satah ki taraf badhne ka imkan hai. Halankeh, yah dekhte hue keh haftawar chart ke mutabiq pound sterling nuqsanat ke liye taiyar hai, mai pound/dollar ka joda kharidne me hichkicha raha hun. Sath hi, mai niche se short jane par gaur nahin kar raha hun. Mujhe lagta hai keh jab H4 candlestick 1.2562 ke nishan se niche band ho jaye, ya 1.2676 ki muzahmati satah se pullback ho to, short positions kholna danishmandi hogi.