جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kiya gaya hai. Kal bullish buy level ke upar ka breakout misleading sabit hua, kyun ke uske baad koi barhawa dekhne ko nahi mila; balkay bearish sell level 1.31285 par breach hogaya. Is bearish breakdown ne bullish bias ko khatam kar diya, jiss wajah se mujhe selling ki taraf shift karna para. Ab mein umeed kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giray gi. Yeh price aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai, ya to bearish channel ke lower boundary tak ya phir support level 1.29384 tak. Dobara buying ka sochna us waqt ho ga jab bullish buy level ka breakout hoga. Abhi mera alternative bullish buy level 1.31399 par hai. Agar bulls is level ko tod dete hain, tou mein foran buying ki taraf shift ho jaoonga, aur kam az kam 1.31849-1.32089 ke resistance levels tak ka izafa dekhne ki umeed hai. Pehle ke high tak bhi growth ka potential hai. Main abhi tak upward move ko mumkin samajh raha hoon, is liye apna buy position close karne mein hichkichahat hai. 1.3049 ke qareeb, ek full-scale upward movement meri profit target 1.3407 tak ja sakti hai, halan ke mein isay confirm nahi kar sakta. Lekin agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jaate hain, tou mein shayad apna buy position manually close kar doon, kyun ke us waqt bullish move ke chances kaafi kam ho jaayenge. Maine pehle 1.3099-1.3049 tak ke drop ki tawaqo ki thi aur ab bhi uska intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke abhi pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne to apne gains ko lagbhag erase kar diya, lekin pound ne sirf 29% ka retrace kiya hai. Agar EU inflation 2.1% pe aata hai aur significant drop show karta hai, jisse ECB rates cut kare Fed ki tarah, tou UK ka inflation data abhi pending hai. Jab yeh release hoga, tou umeed hai ke market realize karegi ke Bank of England rates ko kam karta rahega. Kul mila ke, is hafte ke liye mera GBP/USD ka outlook bearish hai, aur mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh 1.3141 se upar jaayeg Lagta hai ke GBP/USD mein foran 1.3199 ya usse zyada ka izafa Friday ke close ke baad mushkil hai, kyunke dollar fundamentals ki wajah se mazid mazboot ho gaya hai. H1 chart par downward pressure mazid barh raha hai, aur momentum bhi kaafi strong lag raha hai. Iss waqt selling buying se zyada mufeed lagta hai, kyunke long positions ke liye mazeed favorable prices abhi aanay ka imkaan hai. Is liye, 1.3154–1.3174 ke range mein selling opportunities dekhi ja sakti hain jo ke 1.3074 support ke niche break ko target karengi. Kai buyers ne apne stops yahan rakhe hain, aur market wahan ja sakta hai, is liye abhi buying ke liye waqt jaldi hai. Haan, agar 1.3074 support ke niche stops toot jaate hain, toh buying transactions mazid favorable ho sakti hain. Agar corrective move dekha jaye, for example 1.3182 tak, toh ye 50 points ka izafa ho ga, jo ke proportionally zyada profitable hai. Local low lagbhag 101 points door hai; agar ye toot jaye aur barqarar rahe, toh agla target 161.8 level tak jaa sakta hai, lagbhag 1.2992, jo ke 134 points ka faasla cover karega, aur agar bounce aata hai toh mazeed points bhi ho sakte hain

GBP/USD ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility dikhayi hai, jo dono UK aur US ke economic factors ki wajah se driven hai. Ek important factor jo pair ki upward trajectory ko support kar raha hai, wo US dollar ki weakness hai. US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne abhi report kiya hai ke US GDP second quarter of 2024 mein 3.0% grow hui, jo market expectations ke mutabiq thi. Ye data positive hai, lekin isne dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi momentum provide nahi kiya. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 tak gir gaye, jo labor market ki resilience ko show karta hai. Lekin Federal Reserve ke officials, jaise Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks, jo 50 basis point rate cut ki baat kar rahe hain, dollar ke mixed outlook mein contribute karte hain. Cook ne "downside risks" ka zikr kiya, jo employment ke hawale se tha, aur yeh signal diya ke Fed ki monetary policy ziada aggressive nahi hogi. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weaken karta hai, jo GBP/USD pair mein British pound ke faida mein jata hai.Doosri taraf, UK ne apni resilience dikhayi hai, Bank of England ki monetary policy ke hawale se concerns ke bawajood. British pound ne recent mein strength gain ki hai, kyunke expectations hain ke BoE inflationary pressures ke sabab se apna rate-tightening approach lambi muddat tak barqarar rakhega. Pair ki upward momentum mein market mein public participation ka izafa bhi ek key factor raha hai, jo buying interest ko drive kar raha hai. Magar, markets abhi bhi cautious hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index ke intezaar mein. Yeh fundamental uncertainty aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks ke saath GBP/USD pair mein aage bhi volatility ka sabab ban sakte hain.

GBPUSD

Ab humare paas ek bearish candlestick Engulfing hai, jahan ek hi candle ne do pehle ki bullish candlestick ko engulf kiya hai. Agar hum GBP/USD jo par dekhein, ye hafte ka chart hai. Ye bearish reversal pattern do baar ki bullish cycle ke baad niche ki taraf palatne ki nishani de raha hai. Aur ye reversal bearish pattern isse upar ke specialized index zone dwara corroborate kiya gaya hai. Yeh bhi thoda lateral hai, jo humein niche ki tarf palatne ke sambhavna ki nishani de raha hai. Mere liye pehla ahm target niche ki taraf ye daily support zone hai, jo 1.2260-1.2360 par hai. Lekin ye ek long-term prediction hai, jo shayad kuch waqt tak kaam kare, sab kuch market ke volatility par nirbhar karega. Is mucle ka price 850 points niche ja sakta hai. Lekin ye sirf mera opinion hai, aur neeche diye gaye tasveer mein aap dekh sakte hain.

Diurnal map par aap dekh sakte hain ki price channel ki upper border se bahar nikla aur 1.3432 se price ki upward movement downcast ho gayi. Jab price wapas channel par aayi, asset ne jaldi se south ki taraf kaun kiya. Friday ko, price ne daily moving average line ko test kiya, jo 1.3069 par hai. Friday ka din pinbar ke saath close hua. Aur ye moving average line se ek response ho sakta hai. Ye moving average line ab green hai, jiska matlab hai ki buyers ko sellers par precedence hai. Aur ye bulls ko north ki taraf le jaane ke liye inspire kar sakta hai, shayad 1.3432 ko update karke 1.3500 ya shayad aur aage 1.3780 tak. Neeche diurnal period ka screenshot hai.

Sochne ke liye, main yearly map par bhi dhyan de raha hoon. Ye dikhata hai ki price channel ki lower border se bahar nikla. Uske baad price wapas channel mein aayi. Aur iske baad, price ne passes jeetne ke liye upper part ko touch karne ka safar shuru kiya. Kam se kam profitable deals ke zone tak, jo ab 1.3780-1.4361 par hai.

USD ka analysis aaj kal kafi pechida aur ghambir hota ja raha hai. Pichle kuch waqt se, wave pattern kafi wazeh lag raha tha aur bearish wave set ki formation ko suggest kar raha tha, jiska target 1.2300 se neeche tha. Lekin, aam taur par U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi hai ke ye scenario ab utna feasible nahi lagta. Demand ab bhi barh rahi hai. Abhi jo wave pattern hai, wo kafi mushkil aur complex ho gaya hai. Main aksar simple structures ka istemal karta hoon analysis ke liye, kyunke complex structures mein zyada nuances aur ambiguity hoti hai. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke ek upward wave ne ek downward wave ko overlap kar diya hai, jo pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai, jo pehle ke downward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai (ye saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Hum sirf itna keh sakte hain ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai aur balancing line 1.2600 ke aas-paas. Lekin ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern se fit nahi ho rahi, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neeche wale chart mein alternative wave count dikhaya gaya hai. Market ne ek nayi wajah se kharidari shuru ki hai. GBP/USD exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points se gir gaya, jo ke itna zyada nahi hai given aaj ke news background ko. Kam se kam do FOMC members ne September meeting mein rate cut ki appropriateness par doubts express kiye. Kuch ghante pehle, U.S. GDP report for Q2 release hui, jisme US economy 3.0% grow hui, jabke pehle estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh bhi ke U.S. economy Q1 se do guna tez hui hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke U.S. dollar ka 35 basis point ka faida chhota hai; isse din ke end tak kafi zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton se bearish wave ke bawajood, mujhe pair ke girne ke siwa kuch nahi lagta. Main kisi aur movement ko trade karne ka sochta nahi, given the current news background. Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims par tha. Lekin is report ki value market expectations ke kareeb thi, isliye koi khaas reaction nahi hua. Overall, kuch doosre analysts ki tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke dollar bohot oversold hai, aur market agle paanch rounds ke Fed policy easing ko price kar rahi hai, lekin September mein rate cut hone ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke instrument mein aage kaafi increase ka koi sense nahi ban raha, isliye main aise movements ko trade karne ki advise nahi dunga. GBP/USD ka wave pattern abhi bhi decline ka suggest kar raha hai. Given ke upward trend segment 22 April se shuru hua aur ab tak ek five-wave form le chuka hai, hume ab kam se kam ek three-wave correction expect karni chahiye. Mere nazar mein, pair ko 1.2627 ke aas-paas targets ke saath sell karna consider karna chahiye. Lekin abhi tak kisi bhi last upward wave ke end ka signal nahi hai, lekin corrective wave ke formation ki umeed abhi bhi ki ja sakti hai.
Bade wave scale par, wave pattern transform ho gaya hai. Ab hum ek complex aur extended upward corrective structure ka assumption le sakte hain. Filhal ye ek three-wave structure hai, lekin ye five-wave structure mein bhi transform ho Click image for larger versions

GBP/USD: Kamiyabi Trading ka Rasta

Hamari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ke price action ki real-time evaluation par hai. Filhal, margin trading system ka trend buy ki taraf hai, lekin aaj GBP/USD ke trading par kuch ahem rules lagoo ho rahe hain. Kisi bhi action lene se pehle, yeh zaroori hai ke aap buyers ya sellers ki taraf se hi kisi clear signal ka intezar karein. Is waqt, mai is trading system ka jaiza le raha hoon aur iski signals ko nazarandaz kar raha hoon. Mujhe lagta hai ke price neeche ki taraf ja sakti hai, lekin is soch ko support karne ke liye mere paas koi technical ya fundamental shawaahid nahi hain. Mai fundamental analysis se kuch disconnected mehsoos kar raha hoon aur economic calendars ki bhi mehsoos nahi karta. Mujhe ummeed hai ke U.S. dollar jald hi takat hasil karega. Beech se lekar lambay arse tak, mujhe U.S. dollar mein kaafi kamzori nazar aati hai. Mai apne trading goals hasil karne ke liye is pair ka intezar kar raha hoon ke yeh 1.2779 ke target price tak gir jaye.

Current Market Analysis

Aaj subah, GBP/USD aur EUR/USD ka nazar asar kaafi milta-julta hai, kyunki buyers kal ki losses se recover karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. M15 chart par, GBP ke buyers 1.3224 ke low se upar uthne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Jab unhone 1.3293 par critical resistance level ko test kiya aur ise tod diya, to bulls ke paas ek achi mauqa mila hai ke wo significant bullish retracement kar saken.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Agar price is critical line ke upar stabilize ho jati hai, to yeh 1.3329 aur 1.3352 par pahli impulse zones ki taraf aage barhne ki sambhavnayein hain. Magar, in levels par naye downward corrections bhi aa sakte hain. Ek alternative scenario yeh hai ke GBP/USD support level 1.3279 se neeche gir sakta hai, kal ka low revisit karne ki koshish karte hue. Iske hone ki sambhavnayein zyada tar geopolitical developments par mabni hain.

Recent Price Action

Kal, price 1.3246 par ruki, jo daily chart par middle Bollinger Band ke kareeb hai. Abhi kisi definitive conclusion par pohanchna jaldi hai, magar agar aaj ek reversal doji pattern banata hai, to yeh price ko 1.3425 tak wapas aane mein madad kar sakta hai aur shayad is resistance level ko tod bhi de.

Conclusion

Khule taur par, GBP/USD currency pair abhi ek complex trading landscape ka samna kar raha hai. Jab ke upward movement ke potential signs hain, khaaskar agar resistance levels tod diye jaate hain, lekin geopolitical factors aur market ke evolving nature ki wajah se ihtiyaat zaroori hai. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke wo woke rahein, clear signals ka intezar karein se pehle apne positions lene se.

USD/GBP Price Behavior Ka Tajziya

USD/GBP currency pair ki price behavior ka jaiza liya gaya hai, jis se ye samajh aata hai ke kuch ahm harkatein hue hain jo strategy ko tabdeel karne ki zaroorat hai. Yahan par market ke haalat aur umeedon ka tafsili jaiza diya gaya hai.

Haalia Market Harkatein

Hal hi mein, ek bullish breakout ki umeed thi jab price buy level se ooper janay ki koshish kar rahi thi, lekin ye ek ghalat fehmi sabit hui kyunki price ne upar ki taraf koi jazbaat nahi dikhaye. Is ke bajaaye, ek bearish breakdown dekhne ko mila jab price ne sell level 1.31285 ko tod diya. Ye bearish development ne bullish rukh ko khatam kar diya, jis ke natije mein selling positions ko ikhtiyar karna pada.

Mausoomiyat ki Umeed

Mein ab expect kar raha hoon ke price kam az kam 1.30859 tak giregi. Is ke ilawa, niche ki taraf aur bhi ghirne ki sambhavana hai jab tak ye bearish channel ki lower boundary ya support level 1.29384 tak nahi pahuncha. Mujhe sirf tab buying opportunities ka jaiza lena hai jab price bullish buy level jo ab 1.31399 par set hai, ko todti hai. Agar market is level ko successfully breach kar leti hai, to mein foran buying ka rukh ikhtiyar karunga, umeed hai ke price resistência levels 1.31849-1.32089 ki taraf barhegi. Yeh pehle ki high levels tak bhi pahuncha sakti hai.

Profit Targets aur Taedilat

Mujhe aik upward movement ki sambhavana ab bhi nazar aati hai, is liye mein apne buy position ko band karne mein kuch hichkichahat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Agar price 1.3049 tak pahuncha, to agar upward movement hui to mera profit target 1.3407 tak ho sakta hai, lekin abhi tak mein is baare mein kuch keh nahi sakta. Agar bears price ko 1.2919 tak le jate hain, to mein apne buy position ko manually band karne ka faisla kar sakta hoon, kyunki is point par bullish movement ki sambhavana kafi kum ho jayegi.

Price Retracement par Nazariya

Pehle mein 1.3099-1.3049 range tak girawat ki umeed kar raha tha, aur ab bhi intezar kar raha hoon kyunki pair overbought lag raha hai. Euro ne apne gains ko lagbhag khatam kar diya hai, jabki Pound ne sirf 29% retracement dekhi hai. Agar EU ka inflation 2.1% aata hai aur ye kaafi kaam hota hai, to ECB ka rate cut karna expected hai, usi tarah jaisa Fed ne kiya. UK ka pending inflation data market perceptions ko badal sakta hai. Jab ye release hoga, to market shayad yeh samjhe ke Bank of England ko bhi rate cut karne ki zaroorat hai.

GBP/USD par Haftai Nazariya

Mujhe aaj ke liye GBP/USD ka nazariya bearish nazar aata hai. Mujhe nahi lagta ke rate 1.3141 se upar jayega. Aisa lag raha hai ke GBP/USD ka kisi bhi ahm tarah se upar jana mushkil hai, khaaskar Friday ke close ke baad, jab dollar ki buniyadiyat behtar ho rahi hain.

Market Ke Jazbat

Haal mein, H1 chart par neeche ki taraf pressure barh raha hai aur momentum kafi mazkhoor hai. Is waqt selling kharidne se zyada behtar hai, kyunki lambi positions ke liye behtar prices milne ki sambhavana hai. Is liye, selling opportunities 1.3154–1.3174 range mein aa sakti hain, jo support 1.3074 ke neeche break karne ka target rakhti hain. Bohot se buyers ne is area mein apne stops rakhe hain, jo indicate karta hai ke market is level tak pahunchega.

Aane Wale Buying Prospects

Halaanki, shayad buying par ghor karna abhi thoda jald baazi ho, agar 1.3074 ka support break ho jata hai, to buying transactions ke liye shara'it behtar ho sakti hain. Agar koi corrective move hota hai, jaise ke 1.3182 tak, to yeh 50 points ki badhoti dikhata hai, jo proportionally behter faida dene ki sambhavana rakhta hai.

Neeche Ki Taraf Movement ke Target

Local low kareeb 101 points ki doori par hai; agar ye level tod diya jata hai aur stable hota hai, to agla target 161.8 retracement level ke 1.2992 tak extend ho sakta hai, jo kareeb 134 points tak coverage dega. Agar koi bounce-back hota hai, to aage bhi upward movement ki sambhavana hai.

Nateejah

Khilafat mein, jabke market bearish rukh dikhata hai, lekin abhi bhi selling aur kuch der se buying ke liye potential opportunities hain jab key levels ko test kiya jata hai. In price action ko barqarar rakhna zaroori hai taake in flutterations ko behtar taur par navigate kiya ja sake.

GBP/USD Price Action ka Jaiza aur Trading Strategy Banane ka Amal:
GBP/USD ka exchange rate ek mushkil halat ka samna kar raha hai, jahan dono currencies par mixed economic asraat hain. Yeh joڑا haal hi mein 1.3352 ke peechle din ke low se neeche gir gaya, 137 pips se zyada ki kami dekhi gayi. Yeh tezi se hone wali harkat market ki recent economic data aur geopolitical developments par sensitivity ko dikhati hai. US Federal Reserve ki monetary policies, khaaskar interest rate ki adjustments, dollar ki taqat par asar daalti hain, jab market participants aage ki rate reductions ki sambhavnayon ka jaiza lete hain. Is doran, Bank of England ko bhi mushkilat ka samna hai kyunki inflation ka pressure barqarar hai, jo iski monetary policy faislon par sawal uthata hai. UK economic challenges jaise ke sust growth aur siyasi uncertainties ka samna kar raha hai, is liye pound ki dollar ke khilaf soorat-e-haal in tabdeel hoti hui factors par depend karegi. Traders aane wale economic indicators aur central bank ke bayanat par nazar rakhte hain, kisi bhi buniyadi tabdeeli se GBP/USD exchange rate mein significant fluctuations ho sakti hain.




Technically, GBP/USD joڑا ahem levels ke aas-paas kaam kar raha hai, jo ke ek nuanced trading situation ka izhar karta hai. Aakhri kami lagbhag 1.3237 tak pahunche, jahan kuch buyers aaye aur halka sa recovery dekha gaya, do musalsal bullish H1 candles ke zariye. Lekin, yeh bullish momentum kam hota dikh raha hai jab price 34-period Exponential Moving Average ke nazdeek aati hai, jo ek significant resistance point hai. Iske ilawa, joڑا lower highs bana raha hai, pehla 1.3265 par aur phir peechla lower high 1.3287 ko break kiya. Yeh harkat ek mumkin retracement phase ki taraf ishaara karti hai, jahan aane wale waqt mein aur consolidation ho sakti hai. Traders jo Fibonacci retracement levels ka istemal kar rahe hain, woh dekh sakte hain ke joڑا is waqt discount zone mein hai, jo kharidne ke mauqay ko darshata hai; lekin ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Market sentiment dono bulls aur bears ke darmiyan kuch khamosh hai, jo ek ehtiyaat bhara trading environment tayar karta hai. Aakhri bullish signals unsuspecting traders ke liye ek trap ban sakte hain agar woh mazboot risk management strategies ko nazarandaz karein. Is liye, jab ke broader daily aur H4 trends bullish nazar aa rahe hain, maujooda halat ek meticulously approach ki zaroorat hai, khaaskar stop-loss orders ke sath jo potential losses ko kam karein. Jaise hi market fluctuate karta hai, traders ko nimble rehna chahiye, taake wo fundamental shifts aur technical signals ko samajh sakein jo samne aa sakte hain.

GBP/USD Pair Review

Pound sterling ka price Thursday ko $1.27 par qaim raha, jo ke teen hafton ke sabse oonchay level ke qareeb tha, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein parliamentary elections ke liye votes daalay gaye. Centre-left Labor Party opinion polls mein aage thi, aur mumkin hai ke yeh British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ki Conservative Party ko gira de. Kuch andazay yeh bhi hain ke Labor Party ko aksariyat milne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 2005 ke baad general elections mein unka pehla fatah hoga. US jobs numbers ka elan honay se pehle GBP/USD ka price resistance level 1.2780 ke qareeb stable tha.

Kuch analysts ka kehna hai ke yeh siyasi tabdeeli pound sterling, stock market, aur Britain mein investments par acha asar daal sakti hai, aur Britain ki "safe haven" ke tor par shohrat ko bahal kar sakti hai, jab ke doosray ilaqay siyasi uncertainty ka shikar hain. Monetary policy ke hawalay se, investors yeh tawaqqa kar rahe hain ke August mein Bank of England ke faida ke rates mein cut hoga, jab ke inflation central bank ke 2% target tak gir chuki hai.

Trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year bond yield apni recent highs se neeche hai, aur sab ki nazarain elections par hain. British government bonds par 10-year yield Thursday ko takreeban 4.18% thi, jo ke Monday ko chhuti 4.28% se kam thi, jab England, Scotland, Wales aur Northern Ireland mein elections ho rahe thay. Labour Party opinion polls mein aage hai aur Conservative Party ko girane ka imkaan hai, jise Prime Minister Rishi Sunak lead kar rahe hain.

Forex market trading ke mutabiq, British pound ne 2024 ke general election mein achi performance dikhai hai, lekin 10pm par exit poll ke elan ke waqt kuch volatility aasakti hai. Exit poll Thursday raat ko 10pm par ek bara waqt hoga kyun ke yeh ziada tar accurate andaza deta hai ke agla Prime Minister kaun hoga aur uska control kitna mazboot hoga. Base case ke tor par, agar Keir Starmer ki Labour Party ko bari jeet milti hai, to hum expect karte hain ke pound mein izafa hoga jab yeh natija confirm ho jata hai.

Currencies ko certainty pasand hoti hai, aur ek bari Labour jeet sterling exchange rates mein baqi rahne wale risk premium ko khatam kar degi, chahe yeh kitna bhi chhota ho. Barclays Bank ke mutabiq, “British general elections is haftay ka main focus hain, aur ziada tar plausible scenarios, jo ke available opinion polls ke mutabiq hain, pound ki mazeed taqat ko stimulate karte hain.” Is leehaz se, Barclays pound ko euro ke against buy kar raha hai, jo ke French election ke natije ke baad limited recovery dikhayega.

Latest large-scale YouGov poll ke mutabiq, Conservatives sirf 102 MPs tak ghatte nazar aate hain, jo ke party ne pichlay 5 saal mein jeeti hui seats ka 70% kho dene ka matlab hai, aur Labour ko 1832 ke baad se apni sabse bari aksariyat milegi. Deutsche Bank ke Gopal ka andaza hai ke agar Labour achi performance dikhati hai, to pound ki rate ziada tabdeel nahi hogi, aur “EUR/GBP ka risk premium zyada rates par mabni rahega.”

Lekin agar Conservatives opinion polls se behtar karti hain, to yeh sterling ke liye tail risk ho sakta hai, jo ke mumkin hai kyun ke kai voters ab tak faisla nahi kar paye. Agar hung parliament hota hai – jisme koi party aksariyat nahi jeetti – to yeh uncertainty peda karega, jis se sterling kamzor hosakta hai. Yeh sochte hue, pound-euro exchange rate 1.18 se neeche gir sakta hai. Agar French election bhi hung legislature ka natija deta hai, to phir 1.1750 aur 1.17 ke midpoints tak ka rasta saaf hoga. Issi waqt, GBP/USD exchange rate wapas 1.27 tak gir sakti hai, lekin hum samajhte hain ke US ka jobs report Friday ko final asar dalega.

Sterling Dollar ka aaj ka forecast:

Aaj ke US jobs numbers ka reaction GBP/USD ke liye is haftay ke trading ka closing price tay karega, jo ke ek bullish weekly close ke qareeb hai. Jaise pehle zikar kiya, resistance 1.2775 bulls ke control mein wapas anay ke liye sabse important station hai, aur daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, price resistance levels 1.2830 aur 1.2900 tak pohonch sakti hai. Doosri taraf, agar price wapas 1.2660 ke support area tak jati hai, to yeh upward rebound ke liye khatra hai.

GBP/USD: Price Action ke Pehlu
Hamari guftagu ka markaz live GBP/USD currency pair ki pricing movements ka jaiza lena hai. GBP/USD joڑا aik neeche ki taraf chalne wali harkat ka akhri ishara de raha hai. Aakhri tasdiq is baat par depend karegi ke aaj ka D1 candle ek ahem level ke neeche band hota hai ya nahi. Agar GBP/USD ke bears kal ke low 1.3234 ke neeche price ko nahi le ja sakte, toh yeh aik potential bottom ko darshata hai, jo kharidne ka mauqa banata hai, iske sath stop loss 1.3234 ke thoda neeche rakha ja sakta hai. Aaj Wednesday hai, aur hafte ka pehla hissa lagbhag poora ho chuka hai, jo traders ko market ki direction ka andaza lagane mein madad karega.

GBP/USD ka jaiza lete waqt, hum mukhtalif timeframes par market movements par focus karte hain. Price chhote arse mein downtrend ko follow kar rahi hai, jo sellers ko 1.3262 ke critical support level ko test karne ka mauqa de raha hai. Yeh level 4-hour chart par ascending channel ke lower boundary se milta hai.



Agar price 1.3262 ke neeche girti hai toh yeh bullish se bearish market ki taraf shift ka ishara kar sakta hai, jo decline ko tez kar dega. Agla target support level 1.3186 hai. Magar lambi muddat ke liye uptrend ab bhi barqarar hai, jahan price resistance level 1.3527 ki taraf badh rahi hai. GBP/USD ka halat dilchasp hai kyun ke market ne kisi badi selloff ya strong pullback se bachne ki koshish ki hai. Jab ke growth ke liye foran targets mushkil nahi lagte aur decline ruk gaya hai, overall trend ab bhi upar ki taraf hai. Yeh bohot kuch U.S. dollar ki performance par depend karega, khaaskar aaj ki expected ADP labour market data release ke mad e nazar. Main in levels par bechne ke liye hamesha mutma'in nahi hoon. Agar price lagbhag 1.3254 tak girti hai, toh main kharidne ka sochunga, khaaskar kyun ke stop loss minimal hoga.

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza liya gaya hai. Abhi ke liye yeh pair upar ki taraf ja raha hai, aur agar hum daily chart dekhein toh yeh kuch dinon se sideways movement dikhata hai. Ahem sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh bullish aur sideways trend barqarar rahega ya phir koi tabdeeli dekhne ko milegi. Aaj ke technical outlook ko dekhtay hain. Moving averages aur technical indicators dono hi buy ka mashwara de rahe hain. Abhi tak koi wazeh faisla nahi kiya gaya hai. UK se kuch zaroori updates aaye hain, lekin wo neutral lag rahi hain. Jabke US se aane wali khabrein zyada optimistic hain, aur kuch ahem updates baqi hain. Is hawale se, yeh pair apni upward momentum ko barqarar rakhega, aur 1.3259 ke resistance level tak buying ka imkaan hai. Agar selling hoti hai, toh yeh support level 1.3179 tak ja sakti hai. Bullish trend ka imkaan zyada hai, aur sideways pattern se breakout expected lag raha hai. Aaj, yeh pair sharply bara, apna target hit kar ke reverse hua. Chart dikhata hai ke pair ne resistance level 1.3254 ko test kiya, phir pull back kiya, aur ab 1.3203 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. RSI neutral hai lekin upar ki taraf dekh raha hai, jabke Awesome Oscillator (AO) sell signal de raha hai. Pair abhi tak kal ke trading range ke andar hai, lekin indicators potential growth ki taraf ishara karte hain. Main expect karta hoon ke 1.3254 resistance level ka dobara test hoga, aur mumkin hai ke 1.33 range tak break ho. Halat abhi kuch zyada optimistic nahi hain. Buyers ka momentum kamzor lag raha hai, halanke din promising shuru hua tha. GBP/USD abhi tight range mein chal raha hai, jo 1.3139 aur 1.3262 ke darmiyan hai. Agar pair 1.3199 se upar reh sakta hai, toh mazeed upward movement ho sakti hai. Magar aaj ka ahem point 1.3262 resistance ko break karna hai, jo naye highs ka rasta khol sakta hai. Agar pair 1.3139 se neeche chala gaya, toh short-term downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai, aur yeh 1.2999 tak gir sakta hai.
Aaj ke liye, agar hum 4-hour chart par technical nazar daalain, toh hum dekhte hain ke pair ko 1.3130 ke breakout resistance ke upar temporary support mil raha hai, aur 50-day moving average bhi price ko support kar raha hai. Average moving average dobara neeche move hui hai. Isliye, agle chand ghanton mein uptrend ka imkaan hai, jisme pehla target 1.3180 ka hoga. Yeh growth ko barhane ke liye ek channel khol sakta hai jo ke 1.3210 aur 1.3230 tak jaye ga. Yaad rahe ke agar trading 1.3130 ke neeche aur sirf 1.3100 ke upar rahti hai, toh pair ki downward correction dobara shuru ho sakti hai, jisme targets 1.3065 aur 1.3040 se start honge. Niche chart dekhain:
Iss waqt pair weekly highs se thoda upar trade kar raha hai. Large support areas test ki gayi hain, aur barhti hui tension ke bawajood, unhone apni integrity barqarar rakhi hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke upward vector ki ahmiyat hai. Growth ko barqarar rakhne ke liye price ko 1.3082 ke upar mazid taqat hasil karni hogi, jo ke main support area ki sarhad hai. Agar yeh area dobara test hone ke baad rebound hota hai, toh mazeed growth ka imkaan hoga aur price target area jo 1.3427 aur 1.3500 ke darmiyan hai, us tak pohnch sakti hai.

GBPUSD Price Action Analysis
Aaj hum GBPUSD currency pair ki price action analysis par baat karenge. GBPUSD par dabao hai, lekin daily time frame par SMA100 ka dynamic support abhi tak isay roke hue hai. Agar yeh support toot jata hai, to isay 1.33114 par mother bar ke support ki taraf girne ka mauka mil sakta hai, jo ke andar bar pattern ki projected value ke mutabiq takreeban 121 pip ka hai.

Agar yeh SMA10 curve ke upar rehta hai, to yeh SMA5 curve ko ek baar phir se paar kar sakta hai. Is tarah, 1.34328 par yeh mother bar ke resistance ko challenge kar sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh triangle pattern ke projection line par ek baar phir se reject hota hai, to H4 time frame ki intraday data yeh dikhati hai ke pressure SMA50 ka dynamic support tod chuka hai.



Agar yeh SMA100 ke dynamic support ki taraf girne ka mauka banana chahta hai, to yeh 1.3255 se 1.32332 ke beech flip area par hona chahiye, khaaskar agar yeh 1.33058 par RBS market mein ghusne mein kaamiyab hota hai. Agar yeh support par reject hota hai aur SMA50 curve ke upar bounce nahi kar pata, to yeh 1.34510 par inside bar pattern ke eighth projection ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai. Agar yeh break hota hai, to agle forecast ke liye increase ka mauka mil sakta hai.

British Final Manufacturing PMI jo 51.5 ke range par hai aur pichle mahine se waisa hi rehne ka rujhan rakhta hai, yeh pound sterling ki exchange rate ko majbooti de raha hai, jo GBPUSD ke izafa ka sabab hai.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Analysis
GBP/USD exchange rate ek mushkil mahol ka samna kar raha hai, kyun ke dono currencies par mixed economic influences hain. Yeh pair haal hi mein 1.3352 ke pichle din ke low se neeche gir gaya, aur 137 points se zyada ki kami dekhi gayi. Yeh tezi se hone wali harkat market ki recent economic data aur geopolitical developments par sensitivity ko dikhati hai.

US Federal Reserve ki monetary policies, khaaskar interest rate changes, dollar ki taqat par asar daal rahi hain, kyun ke investors aage ke rate reductions ki sambhavnayein jaanch rahe hain. Dusri taraf, Bank of England ko bhi dabao ka samna hai kyunki inflation barqarar hai, jo uski monetary policy faislon par nazar rakhta hai. UK ko kamzor growth aur siyasi uncertainties jaisi economic challenges ka samna karna pad raha hai, isliye pound ka dollar ke against performance in evolving factors par depend karega.

Traders agle economic indicators aur central bank statements ko dekhte rahenge, aur kisi bhi buniyadi tabdeeli se GBP/USD exchange rate mein khaas fluctuation dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Currency pair ab 34-period Exponential Moving Average par ek ahem resistance level ki taraf barh raha hai. Isne lower highs ka ek silsila bana liya hai, pehla 1.3265 par aur phir 1.3287 par pichla lower high tod diya hai, jo ek possible retracement phase aur aane wale waqt mein consolidation ki sambhavnayein dikhata hai.




Fibonacci retracement levels ye dikhate hain ke yeh pair ab discount zone mein hai, jo buying opportunities ka mauka de sakta hai, lekin ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Bullish aur bearish traders ka market sentiment kuch kamzor hai, jo ek ehtiyaat bhara trading mahol bana raha hai.

Haal ke bullish signals unwary traders ke liye ek trap ban sakte hain agar wo achi risk management strategies implement nahi karte. Isliye, jab ke daily aur H4 trends bullish nazar aate hain, magar maujooda halaat mein ehtiyaat se kaam lena zaroori hai, aur stop-loss orders set karke potential losses ko kam karna chahiye. Jaise jaise market fluctuate hota hai, traders ko agile rehna hoga aur buniyadi tabdeeliyon aur emerging technical signals ke mutabiq adapt hona padega.

GBP/USD currency pair ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility ko showcase kiya hai, jo ke UK aur US ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain.
Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf. Kai dafa higher push ki koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko significant resistance levels par challenges ka samna karna para. Is waqt, price EMA ke aas paas hover kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh iss level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barqarar rehne ki umeed hai
GBPUSD ki harakat yeh dikhati hai ke yeh resistance 1.3425 aur support 1.3365 ke beech sideway/ranging hai. Resistance 1.3425 ko baar baar test kiya gaya hai, aur ab yeh fresh nahi hai, is liye asani se toota ja sakta hai. Waisa hi support 1.3365 bhi ab fresh nahi hai, aur agar harga neeche ki taraf jaata hai, toh support 1.3313 tak pahunch sakta hai. Is waqt trend ab bhi bullish hai aur harga upar jaane ki sambhavana rakh raha hai. Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke harga pehle thoda correction dekhe kyunke six weeks tak continuous rally hui hai. Stochastic indicator bhi bullish movement ko support kar raha hai, lekin oversold zone tak nahi pahunch raha. Yeh sab milkar yeh dikhata hai ke GBPUSD abhi bhi upar ki taraf ja sakta hai, lekin cautious rehna zaroori hai

GBP/USD currency pair ki recent performance ne kaafi volatility ko showcase kiya hai, jo ke UK aur US ki economic factors se driven hai. Ek aham wajah jo pair ke upward trajectory ko support kar rahi hai, woh hai US dollar ki broader weakness. Hal hi mein, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne report diya ke US GDP 2024 ke second quarter mein 3.0% se barha, jo ke market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Yeh data positive tha, lekin dollar ki strength ko barhane ke liye kaafi nahi tha. Iske ilawa, US mein initial jobless claims 218,000 par aa gaye, jo ke labor market ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve officials jaise ke Fed Governor Lisa Cook ke dovish remarks ne dollar ke mixed outlook ko janam diya. Cook ne 50 basis point rate cut ka mashwara diya aur "downside risks" ko employment ke hawalay se point out kiya, jo ke Fed ki less aggressive monetary policy ka ishara deti hai. Yeh dovish sentiment dollar ko weak kar raha hai, jis se British pound GBP/USD pair mein mazid faida utha raha hai. Doosri taraf, UK ne bhi apni resilience dikhayi hai, khaaskar jab Bank of England ki monetary policy par concerns ka izhar kiya gaya tha. British pound ne recent tor par strength gain ki hai, jisse umeed hai ke BoE apna rate-tightening approach zyada arsay tak barkarar rakhe ga, inflationary pressures ke chalte. Pair ke upward momentum ko public participation ne bhi support kiya, jahan logon ne buying interest dikhaya. Halankeh, markets abhi bhi ehtiyat kar rahe hain, aur woh crucial economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Yeh fundamental uncertainty, aur US aur UK ke divergent monetary policy outlooks, GBP/USD pair mein continued volatility ka stage tayar kar rahe hain. Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh GBP/USD ne April se lekar steady uptrend maintain kiya hai, jo ke consistently 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se support ho raha hai. Pair ne hal hi mein 1.3434 ka high touch kiya, jo ke 2.5 saal ka peak tha, lekin 1.3427 ke aas paas kafi resistance ka samna karna para. September 25 ko bulls ne is key level ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin woh kamiyab nahi ho sake, jis ke baad pair ne retracement ki taraf move kiya, wapas 34-day EMA ke taraf. Kai dafa higher push ki koshishon ke bawajood, bulls ko significant resistance levels par challenges ka samna karna para. Is waqt, price EMA ke aas paas hover kar rahi hai, aur jab tak yeh iss level ke upar hai, bullish sentiment barqarar rehne ki umeed hai

Humari guftagu GBP/USD currency pair ke price changes ke analysis ke hawalay se hai. Yeh pair, jo British Pound ko US Dollar ke muqablay main dikhata hai, bohot zyada US job market data aur mukhtalif geopolitical developments se mutasir hota hai. Haal hi main, US ka monthly job data acha aya hai, jis ki wajah se US Dollar ki qeemat barh gayi hai aur GBP/USD pair girawat ka shikar hai. Mazboot employment figures se yeh pata chalta hai ke US ki economy acha perform kar rahi hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ko interest rates barhane ke liye support deti hai. Doosri taraf, UK ki economy ko kuch challenges ka samna hai, jisme inflationary pressures aur growth ka uncertain future shamil hai. Bank of England ki monetary policy decisions, Pound ki taqat ke hawalay se aham kirdar ada karengi. Is ke ilawa, post-Brexit trade negotiations aur wahan ki siyasi stability GBP/USD ki dynamics ko aur mushkil banati hain. Jab traders in tamam factors ko mad e nazar rakhte hain, toh GBP ko le kar market ka rawaiya abhi bhi ehtiyat se bharpoor hai, khaaskar Bank of England ke aanay walay steps ke hawalay se.Is haftay UK economy se koi bara data release nahi hua, jis ki wajah se Pound Sterling zyada ter global market sentiment se mutasir ho raha hai. Traders ab external factors par nazar rakhe hue hain, aur agla bara event US ka GDP data ka release hai. Lekin, kisi bara price movement ki umeed nahi hai, kyun ke markets ne zyada ter Q2 ka annualized GDP growth ko 2.8% par stable rehne ka andaza laga liya hai. Is liye, UK currency zyada ter global developments, khaaskar US se mutasir ho sakti hai.Aham Focus US PCE Inflation Data par hai:Is haftay ka sab se anticipated data release US ka Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index hai. Investors is data ka intezar kar rahe hain taake US main aanay walay inflation ke trends ko samajh saken. Agar inflation barh raha hai ya kam az kam stable hai, toh yeh Fed ke September main rate cut ke expectations ko mazid barhawa dega. Pound ki movements bhi is outcome se mutasir hongi, kyun ke US monetary policy main koi bhi bara tabadla global financial markets ko adjust karne par majboor kar sakta hai.Moving averages filhal Pound Sterling ke liye koi immediate support nahi de rahi hain. Traders trend channel ke lower band par bounce ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke pichlay 6 mahinon se mazbooti se 1.3120 ke aas paas bana hua hai. Agar yeh level toot gaya, toh agla support zone 1.3047 ke aas paas hai, jo August main pehle resistance point tha. Agar aur girawat dekhi gayi, toh 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) jo ke 1.3186 par hai aur critical level jo 1.3100 hai, mazid support de sakte hain