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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD pair ne naye trading week ki shuruaat bearish note par ki, trading karte hue 1.2960-1.2955 ke range mein, jo ke 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) se thoda neeche hai. Yeh positioning is baat ka ishara deti hai ke hal hi mein dekha gaya downtrend jari reh sakta hai, jisne pair ko mid-August ke baad se sabse neeche levels par le aaya hai, lagbhag 1.2900 ke aas paas. US dollar ke ird-gird maujood bullish sentiment GBP/USD ki kamzori ka ek aham sabab hai. Market participants ko umeed hai ke Federal Reserve November mein 25-basis-point interest rate cut karega, jo ke US economy ki barhti taqat ke chalte hai, jaisa ke recent economic data se zahir hota hai.

US durable goods orders ka report aur University of Michigan ka consumer confidence index dono hi umeed se zyada ache aaye, jo ke US economy ki mazbooti ko darshata hai aur aage ke rate cuts ki umeed ko mazid barhata hai. Is positive outlook ne US Treasury yields ko bhi upar le jaya, jis se dollar ki appeal barh gayi. Dusri taraf, pound sterling ne Bank of England ke zyada rate cuts ki umeed ke chalte kamzori ka shikaar hua. UK ke consumer prices ka 2% target se neeche girna in umeedon ko mazid barhata hai.




Technical nazariye se, GBP/USD pair ka 1.3000 psychological level ko kai dafa todne mein nakami hoti hai, jo bearish bias ko mazid mazboot karta hai. Aakhri low 1.2943 aur technical indicators jo continued selling pressure ka ishara dete hain, is downward trend ko support karte hain. Lekin, 2022 ke low se draw ki gayi long-term support trend line, jo ke filhal 1.2950 ke aas paas hai, upar ki taraf kuch protection deti hai. Agar 1.2950 ka level tod diya gaya, toh yeh girawat ko 200-day SMA par 1.2800 ki taraf tez kar sakta hai, khaaskar agar April-September ke uptrend ka 50% Fibonacci retracement level 1.2863 tod diya jaye. Aage ki losses 61.8% Fibonacci level par 1.2730 ke aas paas ruk sakti hain aur shayad August ke low 1.2663 tak extend ho sakti hain. Agar yeh downward trend jari raha, toh pair October 2023 ke low ke aas paas 1.2555 ki taraf bhi ja sakta hai.

Iske baraks, agar 1.3000 ka level phir se hasil kiya jata hai, toh yeh bullish reversal ko trigger kar sakta hai, jahan agle targets 20-day aur 50-day moving averages 1.3120 ke aas paas aur 23.6% Fibonacci level 1.3160 honge. In levels se upar nikalne se upward momentum August ke high 1.3265 ki taraf tez ho sakta hai.

Technical Analysis GBP/USD

H-4 Chart

Pound ki US Dollar ke muqable mein kya taqat dikhai degi, yeh abhi tak wazeh nahi hai. Jab ke US elections ka nateeja is par asar daal sakta hai aur GBP/USD ki price mein volatility la sakta hai, yeh sirf ek shor hai jo jald khatam ho jayega. Is hafte UK mein koi khaas khabar nahi hai, jab ke US mein badi khabrein Tuesday se shuru hoti hain. Main Wednesday se dekhna shuru karunga, jab US labor market ka data release hoga. Germany ke inflation figures bhi kaam kar sakte hain, lekin phir bhi pound ki keemat barh sakti hai.

Achi baat yeh hai ke agar correction mil jaye toh aur kharidne ka mauqa milega. Lekin, pehle Monday kaise guzarta hai, yeh dekhna hoga. Yahan par kuch options hain. Trading ke shuruat par 1.2958 se bounce hone ki sambhavnayein hain, jo ke inverse GIP ka right shoulder banayega, jiska neck level EMA50 par 1.30 hai. Upar ki taraf chalne se EMA200 tak raasta khulega, jo 1.3080 par hai, wahan se reversal ho sakta hai aur further declines aa sakti hain. Lekin agar 1.2858 ke neeche consolidation hota hai, toh wedge extension ke tor par ek target hoga, jahan humein 28 tarikh par entry ki umeed rakhni chahiye.




Aise halat mein, aise khabron ke peeche main Wednesday se correction ke liye kisi taraqqi ka soch bhi nahi sakta. Main ghalat bhi ho sakta hoon. Fundamentals ki baat karein toh, US mein Tuesday ko interest dikhai de raha hai aur Friday ko bhi barhta rahega, jab US ka non-farm data release hoga. Main is figure se positive results ki umeed kar raha hoon, jo pair ki further declines ka matlab hai. Aur yeh mat bhooliye ke US elections abhi bhi bazar par asar daal sakti hain.

Chart ke mutabiq, British Pound aur US Dollar ka 1-day timeframe dikhaya gaya hai, jo humein is currency pair ki recent trend aur movement ke bare mein insight de raha hai. July se le kar September ke beech, GBP/USD pair mein ek strong bullish trend tha, jismein price consistent tareeke se barh rahi thi. Yeh trend lagbhag 1.2300 ke aas-paas se start hua aur mid-October tak price 1.3400 ke upar tak pohanch gayi thi. Is dauraan bohot si green candles dekhi gayi jo ye signal deti hain ke buyers ka control market mein strong tha.
Lekin October ke middle mein is bullish trend mein reversal aaya. Chart mein humein dikhta hai ke October ke baad se price neeche gir rahi hai aur lower highs aur lower lows form kar rahi hai, jo ke ek clear bearish trend ka indication hai. Abhi tak kisi bhi support level par price rukti hui nazar nahi aayi, aur recent trend ke mutabiq, sellers ka pressure buyers par zyada hai.
Yahan par trading ke liye kuch strategies ko samajhna zaroori hai. Agar koi buyer is trend ko observe kar raha hai, toh unke liye ye dekhna zaroori hoga ke price kis support level par stability dikhati hai. Ek strong support level us waqt confirm ho sakta hai jab price lagatar decline ke baad kisi particular point par ruk jaye aur wahan se bounce back kare. Iss waqt, immediate support level 1.2900 ke kareeb lag raha hai, lekin agar ye break ho gaya toh price aur neeche ja sakti hai.
Dousri taraf, sellers ke liye ye ek favorable opportunity hai jab tak market mein downtrend clear hai. Sell positions ko tab tak maintain kiya ja sakta hai jab tak price lower lows aur lower highs form karti rahe. Lekin, agar kisi bhi waqt ek strong bullish candle form hoti hai ya price ek solid support par bounce back karti hai, toh sellers ke liye yeh signal ho sakta hai ke trend mein phir se reversal aa sakta hai.
Is chart se humein ye seekhne ko milta hai ke market trend aur price action ko closely observe karna kitna zaroori hai. Aur har trend ke saath, risk management aur patience rakhna trading mein successful hone ke liye important hai

GBP/USD Technical Overview:**
**H4 Time Frame Technical Analysis:**

H4 chart par, GBP/USD ke kharidaaron ne haal hi mein 1.3069 par ek mukhya upar ki taraf ka impulse tayar kiya hai. Magar, overall market ka context abhi tak nafrat bhara hai. Agar daam support zone 1.3020–1.3000 ke neeche gir jata hai, to upar ki taraf ke movement par shikayat ho sakti hai. Yeh support area bullish jazbat ko sambhalne ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai, aur agar yeh tut gaya to bearish pressure ke barhne ki sambhavana hai.

Mukhya resistance level 1.3069 par hai. Agar daam is level ke upar consolidate karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh primary upward impulse ko activate karega, jo further gains ke liye rasta kholega. Is potential upward movement ke target levels 1.3129 aur 1.3166 par hain, jo pehli impulse zone ko darshate hain.

Haal ki trading dynamics ko dekhte hue, meri strategy yeh hai ke main 1.3020–1.3000 zone ke andar kharidne par ghoor karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke Friday ki bullish candle mein mazboot volume ki kami thi, jo ke Monday ke trading session ke shuruat mein southward pullback ki sambhavana ko barhata hai. In levels aur market ke reactions ko monitor karna agle qadam tay karne ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai.

GBP/USD trading instrument ne pichle hafte mein kamiyabi ka silsila jaari rakha, jab ke yeh apne tay kiye gaye channel mein raha, jab ke EUR/USD pair ke muqabil. Khaskar, daam ne 1.29894 ke critical level ko tod diya, jo ke haal ke trend movement ka extreme hai aur ek ahm support point hai. Pichle weekly candle ka rawaya, jo ek bullish pinbar ke taur par band hui, bullish potential ka ikattha hona darshata hai. Yeh pattern yeh darshata hai ke market ke hissedaron ko reversal ya kam se kam correction ke liye tayar ho sakte hain. Jab tak yeh support lambay arse tak mazboot rehne ki sambhavana hai, pinbar ka hona yeh ishara deta hai ke daam bekar nahi rahega aur ya to bullish movement ya trading activity mein izafa ho sakta hai jab traders is potential shift ka jawab dene lagte hain. Agle price action ko monitor karna zaroori hai taake yeh confirm ho sake ke bullish momentum asal mein ban sakta hai ya nahi.