gbp/usd

اگست 29 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

برٹش پاؤنڈ میں کل کی تصحیح کے زیر اثر مارکیٹوں کی ایک وسیع رینج میں 70 پِپس گر گیا۔ 1.3300 کی ہدف کی سطح غیر ترقی یافتہ معلوم ہوتی ہے، لیکن یکجہتی کے بغیر منگل اور بدھ کو 1.3220 کی سطح سے اوپر جانا ایک آزاد الٹ پیٹرن بن سکتا ہے، جیسا کہ 17-18 جولائی کو ہوا تھا (گرے مستطیل)۔



کل کا تجارتی حجم منگل سے بڑھ گیا، جو کہ ایک مندی کا نمونہ بھی ہے۔ اگر قیمت دوبارہ 1.3220 پر مزاحمت پر قابو پا سکتی ہے، تو 1.3300 تک اضافہ تازہ رفتار حاصل کرے گا۔ تاہم، اگر آج 1.3220 سے نیچے بند ہوتا ہے، تو 1.3095-1.3120 رینج کا راستہ اہم ہدف بن جائے گا اور قریبی مدت کے لیے توجہ مرکوز کرے گا۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر منفی زون میں آ گیا ہے، اور قیمت صرف 1.3167 کے ارد گرد ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی حمایت پر قابو پانے کے لیے طاقت جمع کرنا شروع کر رہی ہے، جو کل کی کم سے سیدھ میں ہے۔ اس سطح کو توڑنے سے ہدف کی حد کھل جائے گی، لیکن اسے عبور کرنے کے لیے اضافی بیرونی محرکات کی ضرورت ہوگی۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

**Spot Price Ki Mazbooti USD Ke Muqablay Mein: GBP/USD Analysis**

Spot price ne Thursday ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein achi mazbooti dikhayi, aur early European trading hours ke doran 1.3190 ke nazdeek firmly trade kar raha tha. Yeh strength partly US Dollar ki kamzori ke wajah se hai, jo market ki speculation ke saath linked hai jo September mein US Federal Reserve ke potential interest rate reduction ko lekar hai. Aaj ki sabse recent data ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3196 ke aas-paas fluctuation kar raha hai, aur 1.3200 ke mark ki taraf upward trajectory dikhayi de rahi hai.

**GBP/USD Ka Fundamental Overview:**

Market sentiment ne DXY ke halka positive bias ko contribute kiya hai, jo do aur aadha haftay ke high ke neeche hai. Isne pair par kuch pressure daala hai. Lekin, Federal Reserve ke September mein borrowing costs ko kam karne ke prospects US Dollar ke liye ek headwind ban sakte hain. Traders ab zyada concrete signals ka intezar karenge jo Fed’s rate-cut strategy ke baare mein honge. Is wajah se, sab ki nazar agle do din ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting par hai, jo currency pair ke near-term direction ko determine karne mein crucial hogi.

Bank of England (BoE) ke is haftay quarter-point rate cut announce karne ke high expectations hain. Lekin, yeh faisla abhi uncertain hai, kyunki Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ke 25 basis points cut ke liye vote 5-to-4 hone ka forecast hai. Pichli meeting mein, MPC ne rates ko unchanged rakhne ke liye 7-to-2 vote diya tha, jo committee ke behtareen debate ko highlight karta hai.

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Pair price filhal mean-reversion move kar rahi hai, jo hourly timeframe par Rising Channel chart pattern ke lower boundary ke nazdeek aa rahi hai. GBP/USD pair ne recently 1.3164 ke critical support level ke neeche break kiya tha. Iske ilawa, pair ka 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche girna, jo 1.3196 ke aas-paas hai, near-term trend mein kuch uncertainty dikhata hai.

Pair ko ab immediate resistance level of 1.3200 ko clear karna hoga aur phir yearly peak of 1.3267 ko surpass karna hoga. Yeh buyers ko year-to-date high challenge karne ke liye enable karega. Lekin, current momentum indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI), bearish signal dikhayi de rahi hai. RSI ne downward turn le liya hai, 50-neutral line ke neeche gir gaya hai, jo indicate karta hai ke sellers abhi control mein hain.

H4 chart par GBP/USD currency pair ko dobara dekhtay hain. Is four-hour chart mein upward trend jari hai, wave structure upar ki taraf apni order bana rahi hai. MACD indicator upar purchase zone mein hai, lekin is par bearish divergence bhi nazar aa rahi hai, aur dusre CCI indicator par bhi yehi haal hai. Aaj price ne phir se peechla maximum update kiya hai, lekin mere khayal mein price apni inteha par hai. Itni dair tak bina correction ke upar jaane ka silsila kab tak chal sakta hai? Correction ka waqt aa chuka hai, aur ye signal kaafi acha chance rakhta hai ke ye kaam kare. Pehli divergences ne kuch khaas kaam nahi kiya tha, zyada tar price ne sideways ka rukh apnaya tha thodi si kami ke saath. Ab price bohot zyada overheated lag rahi hai, aur sab possible targets ko senior periods mein achieve kar chuki hai. Ab ye waqt hai ke price decline shuru kare, jab ke horizontal level 1.3177 ne price ko support diya hua hai. Hamesha upward geese banana mumkin nahi hai, correction shuru hoga hi. Mein yeh expect karta hoon ke price is week ke minimum tak gir sakti hai, yani level 1.3175 tak. Dosra target 1.3122 hai.

Daily Chart


Agar D1 period par dekhein aur target Fibonacci grid ko pehli wave par apply karein, toh aap dekhenge ke 161.8 level achieve ho chuka hai. Price ne last year 2023 ke maximum ko bhi cross kar liya hai, jo ke ek potential sales zone hai. Yeh saaf hai ke price maximum ke ird gird ghuma rahi hai, agar yeh neeche jati hai, toh aapko buyers ki positions lena chahiye jo samajhte hain ke upward trend jari rahega. CCI indicator yahaan se neeche jana chahta hai upper overheating zone se, aur weekly chart par bhi yehi situation hai. Iske ilawa, chaar ghante se chote period par, aaj ke maximum update ke baad bearish divergence - yani sell signal - nazar aa raha hai. In sab factors ka combination is baat ki nishandahi karta hai ke qareebi waqt mein decline hoga aur iska target level 1.3007 hoga. Itne zabardast growth ke baad bina rollback ke, ye normal lagta hai ke ab rollback wahan tak ho.

Sterling ne zyadah tar major currencies ke muqablay mein kamzor perform kiya hai, Australian Dollar (AUD) aur New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ke siwa. Yeh kamzori GBP par barhtay huay pressure ko reflect karti hai, jahan market analysts yeh tawako kar rahe hain ke BoE August mein policy normalization ki taraf ja sakta hai. Iske baraks, tawako yeh hai ke US Federal Reserve apni July meeting mein current rates ko barqarar rakhay ga, lekin September mein apni monetary policy ko ease karne ka aaghaaz kar sakta hai, jiss se Federal Funds Rate 5.00%-5.25% range tak girne ke imkaan hain. Inflationary pressures ke signs ke bawajood, market ne in concerns ko largely dismiss kiya hai aur risk-on sentiment ko prefer kiya hai. Yeh shift un umeedon se driven hai jo rate cut ke aane ki hai. CME FedWatch Tool yeh indicate karta hai ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 31 July ko rates ko steady rakhne ke liye 100% ka imkaan hai. Lekin, markets mein FOMC ke taraf se 18 September ko kam az kam 25-basis-point ka rate cut price ho raha hai, jabke kuch logon ke liye zyada optimistic ho kar 50-bps reduction ka 12% chance bhi hai GBP/USD D1 chart par, aaj ki market activity UK mein chutti ke sabab se relatively stagnant hai. Guzishta trading week mein bearish success ke liye zyada mauqay nahi mile; chotay intraday corrections ko bhi kafi mehnat lagi. Pair ne jack ki tarah upar chadha, lekin aisa laga ke ab niche girne wala hai. Thursday ki candle ne, jo ke inverted hammer jaisi thi, potential decline ki taraf ishaara kiya. Market poore din flat raha, shayad upar se niche correction ke liye sellers ka ek group accumulate kar raha tha. Lekin, yeh expectation mukhtasar arsay ke liye thi kyun ke United States se Friday ko significant news ayi thi. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke address aur US mein new home sales ke announcement ne price mein sharply surge kar diya, jiss se kayi stop losses trigger hue aur kayi accounts ko impact kiya. Yeh movement pound ki taraf nahi thi; balki, US dollar market mein kafi kamzor ho gaya

Pound Sterling Analysis:
British Pound abhi 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein stable hai jab ke traders US ke aanay walay economic data par nazar rakhay hue hain, khas tor par Core PCE Price Index, GDP estimates, aur Initial Jobless Claims. Khaas tor par Core PCE data important hai kyun ke yeh Fed ke aglay qadam ke baray mein umeedon ko shape kar sakta hai. Agar yeh data zyada strong hota hai, to chhoti rate cut ki umeed ho sakti hai jo USD ko mazid strong karega aur GBP/USD par pressure dalega.

Aaj ka economic data bara ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar PCE aur GDP expect se zyada strong hotay hain, to yeh aggressive Fed rate cuts ki umeedon ko kam kar sakta hai, jis se US Dollar mazid strong hoga aur Pound ke liye khatar ho sakte hain. Iske baraks, UK economy bhi focus mein hai jab ke Bank of England ke dosray rate cut par speculation ho rahi hai. In factors ke bawajood, GBP/USD pair ne 1.3200 ke qareeb resilience dikhayi hai.

Technical indicators abhi bhi pair ke liye potential upside ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, lekin is kaafi kuch aaj ke US data par depend karta hai. Investors khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report mein interested hain, jo ke GBP/USD pair ke near-term mein key driver ban sakta hai. Result ke hisaab se, ya to pair 1.3500 ki taraf break kar sakta hai ya phir nayi selling pressure ka samna kar sakta hai.

British Pound ne 1.3200 ke level ke qareeb stability hasil kar li hai, lekin is ki agay ki direction ziada tar US ke aanay walay economic data par munhasir hai, khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report par. Yeh data market sentiment ko influence karne mein bara kirdar ada karega aur Pound ke aglay move ko drive karega. Is uncertainty ko barhawa Bank of England ke potential rate cut se mil raha hai, jo traders ke liye mazeed complexity paida kar raha hai.

Lower time frame chart par, British Pound par kuch downward pressure hai, lekin optimism ki ehsaas hai kyun ke is ne recovery ki signs dikhayi hain. Bulls se umeed hai ke woh dobara control hasil karenge aur GBP/USD pair mein bullish trend ko re-establish karenge. Traders ko in developments par kareebi nazar rakhni hogi taake apni strategies ko accordingly adjust kar sakein.

GBP/USD jo jari tha uski girawat ka silsila do din se chal raha hai, aur yeh 1.3200 ke nishan ke neeche gir gaya hai, kyunke bears ne kam damon par yakeen khona shuru kar diya hai August ki 400-pip ki tezi ke baad. Doosri taraf, Greenback ko madad mil rahi hai behtareen data ki wajah se, jabke UK ke maqami data ki kami hai. Is wajah se, yeh jori 0.30% gir kar 1.3151 par aa gayi hai.

Aaj Thursday ko US ke economic calendar par volatile aur tricky dor guzregi. Weekly Jobless Claims report ke ilawa, doosre quarter ke liye US GDP ka doosra mutaala bhi hoga. GDP ke under Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) ke ahem figures ko zyada tawajjo di jayegi, jo ke Friday ko aane wale monthly PCE figures se pehle hoga.

**GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Technical Situation**

GBP/USD daily chart se ye lagta hai ke jori shayad short-term mein naya target set kare aur sab se recent cycle high, jo ke July 17 ko 1.3043 par dekha gaya, ko challenge kare. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka peak overbought territory mein hai, jo sellers ke haq mein momentum ko show karta hai. Magar, RSI 70 ke mark ke neeche gir gaya, jiski wajah se major ki do din ki girawat hui jo ab ke exchange prices tak aayi hai.

Sellers abhi market par control rakhte hain, lekin neeche jane se pehle unhein psychological 1.3050 support level aur 1.3100 figure ko paar karna hoga. GBP/USD jori 1.3043 ko target kar sakti hai, aur agar aur kamzor hoti hai, toh March 8 ka daily high 1.2893 agla demand zone hoga.

Lekin, buyers ko 1.3200 mark ko cross karna padega taake woh counterattack shuru kar saken. Yeh momentum foran 1.3266 ka two-year high reveal karega. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh buyers March 23, 2022 ka daily high 1.3293 ko target kar sakte hain, jo March 1, 2022 ka swing high 1.3437 se pehle hai.

Currency pair ne pichle haftay ke multi-year peak 1.3266 se 0.27% ki notable kami dekhi hai. Yeh girawat aik musalsal trend ko darshati hai, jahan yeh pair pichle chhe trading dinon mein se paanch din laal rang mein khatam hone ke qareeb hai. Filhal, intraday trading mein GBP/USD 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se 1.2705 ke aas paas peechay hat raha hai.

Mixed U.S. Economic Data Currency Pair ko Asar Dalti Hai aur Dollar Index Ko Kam Karti Hai

Currency pair abhi ek naye haftay ke low 1.3144 se thoda upar trade kar raha hai, dollar index ke khilaf, mixed U.S. economic data ke react karte hue. Sab se naye report ne dikhaya ke annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation 2.6% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke forecasted 2.5% se zyada hai. Is ke ilawa, month-on-month inflation rate 0.2% tak barh gayi hai, jo ke pehle ke estimates aur earlier rate 0.1% se zyada hai.

In inflationary pressures ke bawajood, forex market ka foran reaction US Dollar Index (DXY) ka girna tha. Yeh index, jo Greenback ki performance ko chhe bade currencies ke basket ke khilaf measure karta hai, lagbhag 101.30 tak gir gaya. Yeh kami market ke mixed response ko reflect karti hai economic data ke bare mein aur future USD movements ke implications ko.

Inflation Data Currency Pair Ko Asar Dalti Hai, Dollar Index Ko Kam Karti Hai

Pair ne apni downward trajectory ko continue kiya hai jab se yeh ek year-to-date (YTD) high 1.3266 tak pahunch gaya. Buyers ne exchange rate ko pehle ke cycle high 1.3260 se upar push karne ki koshish ki, lekin yeh fail ho gayi, jo aur bhi losses ko janam deti hai. Market participants ab 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.2895 ke test par focus kar rahe hain jab pair momentum regain karne mein struggle kar raha hai.

1.3083 ka mark ab pair ke liye ek ahem support zone ban gaya hai; is threshold se niche girne se aage aur declines ka imkaan hai. Dusri taraf, do saal ka peak jo 1.3267 ke aas paas hai, GBP/USD pair ke liye ek key resistance level ka kaam kar raha hai. Is darmiyan, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI filhal 40.00 ki taraf gir raha hai, jo short-term mein momentum oscillator ke liye support provide kar sakta hai.

**British Pound (GBP) aur US Dollar (USD) Analysis in Roman Urdu**

Jumeraat ke din British Pound (GBP) ne thori si rahat hasil ki aur New York trading session mein key level 1.2600 ke thoda upar support mil gaya. Yeh development us waqt hui jab US Dollar (USD) mein thori si pullback nazar ayi, halan ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ne nai 8-week high ko touch kiya tha jo 1.0610 ke qareeb tha. Lekin, investors mein ehtiyaat ab bhi barqarar hai kyun ke Jummah ke din crucial US inflation data release hone wala hai. Federal Reserve Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) ko inflation ke tor par apni pasandeeda gauge ke tor par dekhta hai. Yeh data Jummah ko release hone ki umeed hai, aur ye shayad dikhaye ke May mein price increases April ke muqablay mein slow ho gayi hain. Agar inflation ka reading cool aata hai, to USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur GBP ko faida mil sakta hai. Lekin, US se aanewali positive economic signals ki wajah se GBP ka upside ab bhi limited lagta hai.

Taza data ke mutabiq, unemployment claims ke numbers expectations se kam aaye hain aur durable goods orders mein bhi unexpected uptick hui hai. Yeh numbers US economy ki underlying strength ko zahir karte hain, jis se investor sentiment USD par ab bhi bullish hai.

Agar GBP/USD apni ground kho deta hai aur immediate support level 1.2655 ke neeche gir jata hai, to shayad ye ek martaba phir one-month low 1.2620 ko retest kare. Agar mazeed decline hoti hai, to significant support level 1.2598 bhi play mein aa sakta hai, jo ke iss saal ke pehle half mein kaafi mazboot tha. Dusri taraf, agar GBP rally karta hai to shayad resistance zone 1.2771 ko challenge kare, jo ke 2024 ke pehle do mahine mein establish hua tha. Agar yeh area decisively break hota hai, to shayad 1.2816-1.2859 range ka test ho sakta hai. Yeh zone three-month high ke liye represent karta hai aur December 2023 ke peak ke saath coincide karta hai. Agar yeh range break hoti hai, to shayad GBP/USD wapas 2024 ke high 1.2892 ki taraf laut jaye.

Overall, GBP/USD ne apne recent decline ko 50-day moving average ke qareeb roka, lekin sustained reversal ke liye outlook ab bhi uncertain hai. GBP ko apne recent downtrend se clear break dikhana hoga taake positive trajectory establish ho sake. Aane wale Jummah ko release hone wala US inflation data is situation mein aik key turning point ban sakta hai. Agar inflation ka reading expectations se thanda ata hai, to yeh GBP ko zaroori tailwind provide kar sakta hai taake woh momentum gain kar sake

Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein sideway trade kar raha hai, jabke investors July ke US core PCE inflation data par focus kar rahe hain. Fed ki Mary Daly ne agar US labor market kharab hoti hai tou aggressive policy easing ke darwazay khulay rakhe hain. British shop price inflation August mein kaafi slow ho gayi.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ne Tuesday ki London session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3200 ke qareeb apne gains ko qaboo mein rakha hai. GBP/USD pair pichlay haftay ke tezi se hone wale izafay ke baad thoda aram kar raha hai, jabke investors Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate cut ke September mein hone ke baray mein naye isharaat ka intezar kar rahe hain.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate cut ki probability 28.5% hai, jabke baaqi ka zyada rujhan chhoti cut 25 bps par hai. Yeh tool waazeh taur par dikhata hai ke Fed ka policy normalization par wapsi market mein fully price in ho chuki hai, jis se US Dollar pichlay aik haftay se pressure mein hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke value ko chhe major currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke immediate resistance se neeche subdued performance dikhata hai.

Monday ko San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly ne September mein interest rates cut karne ki zaroorat par zor diya. Daly ne 25 bps interest rate cut ki support ki lekin sath hi agar labor market kharab hota hai tou aik badi cut ke liye bhi darwazay khulay rakhe, Bloomberg par interview ke doran kaha.

Investors ka yakeen barh gaya hai ke Fed September se interest rates kam karna shuru kar dega jabke Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne apni Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein kaha ke ab waqt hai ke policy ko adjust kiya jaye. Jerome Powell ne easing labor market conditions par bhi fikr ka izhar kiya aur isay support karne ka irada kiya.

Is haftay investors United States (US) ke core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data ke baray mein bohat ghoor se dekh rahe hain jo Friday ko publish hoga. Annual core PCE 2.7% tak barhne ka andaza hai pehle ke 2.6% release se, jabke mahwari figures mein stable growth 0.2% tak dekhne ko milegi. Is se pehle, US economic calendar Tuesday ko S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June aur The Conference Board’s gauge of Consumer Confidence for August release karega.

Pound Sterling apni major peers ke muqable mein, Asia-Pacific currencies ke ilawa, Tuesday ko mazbooti dikhata hai. British currency apni upbeat market sentiment aur United Kingdom (UK) mein behtar hoti hui economic outlook se faida utha raha hai. Economic prospects behtar hue jab flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI ne dikhaya ke manufacturing aur service sectors dono mein August mein tez taraqi hui.

Bank of England (BoE) ke September mein interest-rate cut ke khilaf kam hoti hui betting ne bhi Pound Sterling ke attractiveness mein izafa kiya hai. Is scenario ka possibility kam hai kyun ke BoE ke officials expect kar rahe hain ke inflation dobara barh sakti hai, halan ke pipeline mein price pressures abate ho rahe hain.

British shop prices August mein October 2021 ke baad pehli baar kam hui, British Retail Consortium (BRC) ke data ne Tuesday ko report kiya. Non-food goods ke prices 1.5% tak ghat gaye summer clothes ki slow sales ki wajah se, jo teen saalon mein sab se bara fall hai. Food prices ne bhi dheere pace par barhna shuru kiya, 2.0% tak, jo ke November 2021 ke baad se sab se chhoti rise hai, July ke 2.3% se neeche.

Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqable mein naya do-an-a-half saal ka high 1.3200 par banaya. GBP/USD pair strong ho gaya jab weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ka breakout deliver kiya. Agar bullish momentum dobara start hota hai tou Cable ke February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak barh sakne ka chance hai.

Upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo ke 1.2766 ke qareeb hai, strong upside trend ka ishara deti hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, yeh 70.00 par overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ke corrective pullback ke chances barhata hai. Neeche ki taraf, psychological level 1.3000 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support hoga.

Monday ko, GBP/USD currency pair ne apni sat din ki winning streak ko khatam kiya, jo ke ek mohtaat market ke mizaj ko zahir karta hai. Yeh pullback uske baad aaya jab yeh pair 1.3000 mark ke qareeb pohanch gaya tha lekin apna bullish momentum barqarar nahi rakh saka. GBP/USD ki is retreat ki wajah chand factors hain, jin mein extended UK bank holiday weekend ke dauraan patlay trading volumes aur iss haftay ke baad aham economic data releases se pehle sarmaayakaron ki hichkichaahat shamil hai.
Sarmaayakaar bechain hain kyunke woh aham data points ka intezar kar rahe hain, jin mein US Retail Sales aur UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures shamil hain, jinka market ki direction par asar parne ki umeed hai. Market ki tawajjoh Federal Reserve ke interest rates ke faislay par bhi hai, jahan bohat se log September mein rate cut ke imkaanat ke bare mein soch rahe hain. Iss soch-bichaar ne trading mein ek mohtaat approach ko janam diya hai, kyunke sarmaayakaar in aanay walay events ke mumkin asarat ko tol rahe hain.

Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell aur San Francisco Fed ke President Mary Daly ki taraf se wazeh ainday ki rehnumayi ke kami ne bhi mohtaat jazbaat ko mazid taqviat di. Dono officials ne yeh wazeh kiya ke ainday rate ke faislay meeting-by-meeting basis par kiye jayenge, jis ne market ko ek wazeh direction ke baghair chorr diya hai.

Taqneeki tor par, GBP/USD ki haaliya price action uske ooper ki taraf rujhan mein ek waqfa ko zahir karti hai, jahan yeh pair 1.3000 ke aham level ko breach karne mein nakam raha. Currency pair ne mukhtasir tor par ek naya 12-mahina high hasil kiya tha lekin phir wapas pull back kiya, jo is mark ke aas paas ek mumkin resistance level ki taraf ishara karta hai. Is wajah se, ab tajir is baat ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain ke kya koi naya bullish momentum ka sign milta hai ya aane wale dino mein mazeed downside movement hoti hai.

GBP/USD ka Monday ko pullback mohtaat market sentiment ka natija tha, jo ke patlay trading volumes aur aham economic data releases se pehle ki ghair yakeeni ki wajah se tha. Extended UK bank holiday weekend aur aanay wale Fed aur Bank of England ke faislay ke imkaanat bhi market ko ek intizaar ki soorat mein rakhne ke imkaan hain, jahan tajir har naye data point ka ghaur se tajzia karte hain pehle ke woh koi bara qadam uthayen

Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein sideway trade kar raha hai, jabke investors July ke US core PCE inflation data par focus kar rahe hain. Fed ki Mary Daly ne agar US labor market kharab hoti hai tou aggressive policy easing ke darwazay khulay rakhe hain. British shop price inflation August mein kaafi slow ho gayi.

Pound Sterling (GBP) ne Tuesday ki London session mein US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 1.3200 ke qareeb apne gains ko qaboo mein rakha hai. GBP/USD pair pichlay haftay ke tezi se hone wale izafay ke baad thoda aram kar raha hai, jabke investors Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate cut ke September mein hone ke baray mein naye isharaat ka intezar kar rahe hain.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke September mein 50-basis-points (bps) interest-rate cut ki probability 28.5% hai, jabke baaqi ka zyada rujhan chhoti cut 25 bps par hai. Yeh tool waazeh taur par dikhata hai ke Fed ka policy normalization par wapsi market mein fully price in ho chuki hai, jis se US Dollar pichlay aik haftay se pressure mein hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke value ko chhe major currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke immediate resistance se neeche subdued performance dikhata hai.

Monday ko San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly ne September mein interest rates cut karne ki zaroorat par zor diya. Daly ne 25 bps interest rate cut ki support ki lekin sath hi agar labor market kharab hota hai tou aik badi cut ke liye bhi darwazay khulay rakhe, Bloomberg par interview ke doran kaha.

Investors ka yakeen barh gaya hai ke Fed September se interest rates kam karna shuru kar dega jabke Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne apni Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein kaha ke ab waqt hai ke policy ko adjust kiya jaye. Jerome Powell ne easing labor market conditions par bhi fikr ka izhar kiya aur isay support karne ka irada kiya.

Is haftay investors United States (US) ke core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data ke baray mein bohat ghoor se dekh rahe hain jo Friday ko publish hoga. Annual core PCE 2.7% tak barhne ka andaza hai pehle ke 2.6% release se, jabke mahwari figures mein stable growth 0.2% tak dekhne ko milegi. Is se pehle, US economic calendar Tuesday ko S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June aur The Conference Board’s gauge of Consumer Confidence for August release karega.

Pound Sterling apni major peers ke muqable mein, Asia-Pacific currencies ke ilawa, Tuesday ko mazbooti dikhata hai. British currency apni upbeat market sentiment aur United Kingdom (UK) mein behtar hoti hui economic outlook se faida utha raha hai. Economic prospects behtar hue jab flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI ne dikhaya ke manufacturing aur service sectors dono mein August mein tez taraqi hui.

Bank of England (BoE) ke September mein interest-rate cut ke khilaf kam hoti hui betting ne bhi Pound Sterling ke attractiveness mein izafa kiya hai. Is scenario ka possibility kam hai kyun ke BoE ke officials expect kar rahe hain ke inflation dobara barh sakti hai, halan ke pipeline mein price pressures abate ho rahe hain.

British shop prices August mein October 2021 ke baad pehli baar kam hui, British Retail Consortium (BRC) ke data ne Tuesday ko report kiya. Non-food goods ke prices 1.5% tak ghat gaye summer clothes ki slow sales ki wajah se, jo teen saalon mein sab se bara fall hai. Food prices ne bhi dheere pace par barhna shuru kiya, 2.0% tak, jo ke November 2021 ke baad se sab se chhoti rise hai, July ke 2.3% se neeche.

Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke muqable mein naya do-an-a-half saal ka high 1.3200 par banaya. GBP/USD pair strong ho gaya jab weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ka breakout deliver kiya. Agar bullish momentum dobara start hota hai tou Cable ke February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 tak barh sakne ka chance hai.

Upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo ke 1.2766 ke qareeb hai, strong upside trend ka ishara deti hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, yeh 70.00 par overbought levels tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ke corrective pullback ke chances barhata hai. Neeche ki taraf, psychological level 1.3000 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support hoga.

**British Pound (GBP) aur US Dollar (USD) Analysis in Roman Urdu**

Jumeraat ke din British Pound (GBP) ne thori si rahat hasil ki aur New York trading session mein key level 1.2600 ke thoda upar support mil gaya. Yeh development us waqt hui jab US Dollar (USD) mein thori si pullback nazar ayi, halan ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ne nai 8-week high ko touch kiya tha jo 1.0610 ke qareeb tha. Lekin, investors mein ehtiyaat ab bhi barqarar hai kyun ke Jummah ke din crucial US inflation data release hone wala hai. Federal Reserve Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) ko inflation ke tor par apni pasandeeda gauge ke tor par dekhta hai. Yeh data Jummah ko release hone ki umeed hai, aur ye shayad dikhaye ke May mein price increases April ke muqablay mein slow ho gayi hain. Agar inflation ka reading cool aata hai, to USD kamzor ho sakta hai aur GBP ko faida mil sakta hai. Lekin, US se aanewali positive economic signals ki wajah se GBP ka upside ab bhi limited lagta hai.

Taza data ke mutabiq, unemployment claims ke numbers expectations se kam aaye hain aur durable goods orders mein bhi unexpected uptick hui hai. Yeh numbers US economy ki underlying strength ko zahir karte hain, jis se investor sentiment USD par ab bhi bullish hai.

Agar GBP/USD apni ground kho deta hai aur immediate support level 1.2655 ke neeche gir jata hai, to shayad ye ek martaba phir one-month low 1.2620 ko retest kare. Agar mazeed decline hoti hai, to significant support level 1.2598 bhi play mein aa sakta hai, jo ke iss saal ke pehle half mein kaafi mazboot tha. Dusri taraf, agar GBP rally karta hai to shayad resistance zone 1.2771 ko challenge kare, jo ke 2024 ke pehle do mahine mein establish hua tha. Agar yeh area decisively break hota hai, to shayad 1.2816-1.2859 range ka test ho sakta hai. Yeh zone three-month high ke liye represent karta hai aur December 2023 ke peak ke saath coincide karta hai. Agar yeh range break hoti hai, to shayad GBP/USD wapas 2024 ke high 1.2892 ki taraf laut jaye.

Overall, GBP/USD ne apne recent decline ko 50-day moving average ke qareeb roka, lekin sustained reversal ke liye outlook ab bhi uncertain hai. GBP ko apne recent downtrend se clear break dikhana hoga taake positive trajectory establish ho sake. Aane wale Jummah ko release hone wala US inflation data is situation mein aik key turning point ban sakta hai. Agar inflation ka r

Pound Sterling Analysis:

British Pound abhi 1.3200 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai US Dollar ke muqable mein, kyunke traders abhi ane wali US economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar Core PCE Price Index, GDP estimates, aur Initial Jobless Claims. Core PCE data khaas tor par important hai kyunke yeh Fed ke agle qadam ke liye expectations ko shape kar sakta hai. Agar reading higher hui, toh chhoti rate cut ka imkaan barh sakta hai, jo USD ko mazid strong karega aur GBP/USD pe pressure daalega.

Aaj ke economic releases bohat zaroori hain. Agar PCE aur GDP expectations se zyada strong hote hain, toh aggressive Fed rate cuts ki umeed kam ho sakti hai, jo US Dollar ko mazid strong kar sakti hai aur Pound ke liye risks barha sakti hai. Isi dauran, UK economy bhi focus mein hai, jahan is saal dusre BoE rate cut ke hawale se speculation ho rahi hai. In factors ke bawajood, GBP/USD pair ne 1.3200 ke qareeb resilience dikhai hai.

Technical indicators ab bhi pair ke liye potential upside ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, lekin yeh ziada tar aaj ke US data pe depend karta hai. Investors khaaskar Core PCE inflation report ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke near term mein GBP/USD pair ke liye key driver ban sakti hai. Result ke mutabiq, pair ya toh 1.3500 ki taraf break kar sakta hai ya dobara selling pressure ka shikaar ho sakta hai.

British Pound ne 1.3200 level ke qareeb stability hasil ki hai, lekin iska agla rukh ziada tar upcoming US economic data pe mabni hai, khaaskar Core PCE inflation report pe. Yeh data market sentiment ko influence karne aur Pound ke agle move ko drive karne mein crucial role ada karega. Saath hi Bank of England ke possible rate cut ka imkaan bhi uncertainty mein izafa kar raha hai, jo traders ke liye mazid complexities peda kar raha hai.

Lower time frame chart pe, British Pound filhal thodi downward pressure mein hai, lekin optimism ka element bhi maujood hai kyunke yeh recovery ke signs dikhara hai. Bulls se umeed hai ke woh phir se control hasil karenge aur GBP/USD pair mein bullish trend ko dobara establish karenge. Traders ko in developments pe nazar rakhni hogi taake apni strategies accordingly adjust kar sakein.

Pound Sterling Analysis: British Pound abhi 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke muqable mein stable hai jab ke traders US ke aanay walay economic data par nazar rakhay hue hain, khas tor par Core PCE Price Index, GDP estimates, aur Initial Jobless Claims. Khaas tor par Core PCE data important hai kyun ke yeh Fed ke aglay qadam ke baray mein umeedon ko shape kar sakta hai. Agar yeh data zyada strong hota hai, to chhoti rate cut ki umeed ho sakti hai jo USD ko mazid strong karega aur GBP/USD par pressure dalega.

Aaj ka economic data bara ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar PCE aur GDP expect se zyada strong hotay hain, to yeh aggressive Fed rate cuts ki umeedon ko kam kar sakta hai, jis se US Dollar mazid strong hoga aur Pound ke liye khatar ho sakte hain. Iske baraks, UK economy bhi focus mein hai jab ke Bank of England ke dosray rate cut par speculation ho rahi hai. In factors ke bawajood, GBP/USD pair ne 1.3200 ke qareeb resilience dikhayi hai.

Technical indicators abhi bhi pair ke liye potential upside ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, lekin is kaafi kuch aaj ke US data par depend karta hai. Investors khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report mein interested hain, jo ke GBP/USD pair ke near-term mein key driver ban sakta hai. Result ke hisaab se, ya to pair 1.3500 ki taraf break kar sakta hai ya phir nayi selling pressure ka samna kar sakta hai.

British Pound ne 1.3200 ke level ke qareeb stability hasil kar li hai, lekin is ki agay ki direction ziada tar US ke aanay walay economic data par munhasir hai, khaas tor par Core PCE inflation report par. Yeh data market sentiment ko influence karne mein bara kirdar ada karega aur Pound ke aglay move ko drive karega. Is uncertainty ko barhawa Bank of England ke potential rate cut se mil raha hai, jo traders ke liye mazeed complexity paida kar raha hai.

Lower time frame chart par, British Pound par kuch downward pressure hai, lekin optimism ki ehsaas hai kyun ke is ne recovery ki signs dikhayi hain. Bulls se umeed hai ke woh dobara control hasil karenge aur GBP/USD pair mein bullish trend ko re-establish karenge. Traders ko in developments par kareebi nazar rakhni hogi taake apni strategies ko accordingly adjust kar sakein

اگست 30 2024 کو برطانوی پاؤنڈ/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

برطانوی پاؤنڈ نے کل صرف 80 پیپس سے زیادہ کی حد میں تجارت کی۔ حتمی نتیجہ 21- پیپس کی کمی تھی، قیمت 1.3220 کی سطح سے نیچے طے ہونے کے ساتھ۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر اپنی تیزی سے کمی کو برقرار رکھتا ہے، 1.3095-1.3120 کی ہدف کی حد کے ساتھ اب کھلا ہے۔ اس رینج کا بریک آؤٹ 1.2994 پر ہدف کھولتا ہے۔

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٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے آ گئی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک نئی نیچے کی رفتار بنانے کے لیے تھوڑا سا معاہدہ کر رہا ہے کیونکہ اسے ہدف کی حد کی طاقت کا احساس ہوتا ہے۔

آج، انگلینڈ میں کل اور رہن کے قرضے، امریکی افراط زر، اور خوردہ فروخت کے اعداد و شمار سے پاؤنڈ متاثر ہو سکتا ہے۔ برطانیہ میں خالص قرضے جولائی میں £3.82 بلین سے کم ہو کر £3.40 بلین ہونے کی پیش گوئی کی گئی ہے، جبکہ امریکی ذاتی کھپت کے اخراجات (pce) کی قیمت کا اشاریہ سال بہ سال 2.5% سے بڑھ کر 2.6% ہو سکتا ہے۔ جولائی میں ذاتی اخراجات میں 0.5 فیصد اضافہ متوقع ہے۔

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