gbp/usd

UK ke strong economic indicators aur softening job market ke bawajood, pair ne Friday ko DXY ke against apni recent downward trend ko reverse kar diya. Rising U.S. Treasury yields aur strengthening greenback ne pair ke exchange rate ko 1.3120 ke upar push kar diya, jo ke 1.20% se zyada ka gain hai.

Federal Reserve ke potential rate cuts ka chance recent data, including June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, se fuel hua hai. Is report ne indicate kiya ke disinflation, jo pehle saal ke start mein stall hui thi, ab dobara se resume ho gayi hai. Annual headline CPI aur core CPI, jo food aur energy prices ko exclude karti hai, donon expected se zyada decelerate hui hain.

Easing inflationary pressures ne Fed officials ke confidence ko bolster kiya hai ke inflation central bank ke 2% target ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin ne broadening disinflation ke baare mein encouragement express kiya, aur kaha ke policymakers upcoming July meeting mein inflation ko elevated describe karne par debate karenge, according to Reuters.

Pair ke US Dollar ke against gains nearly 1.3150 tak climb hui, jo steady decline in UK wage growth ki wajah se influence hui. Pair ab fresh two-year high 1.3154 ke close trade kar raha hai, jo aaj ke earlier session mein achieve hui thi. Overall trend bullish lagta hai, aur short- to long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) upward momentum indicate kar rahi hain. Pair ke upward trajectory ko two-year high 1.3154 tak extend hone ki umeed hai, jo early Asian session ke duran reach hui thi. Agar UK data ke baad selling pressure hota hai, to March 8 high near 1.2900 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support level serve karega.

Additionally, 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearly 70.00 tak surge hui hai, pehli baar ek saal se zyada mein, jo strong bullish momentum signal karti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar current trends persist karte hain, to GBP/USD pair apni ascent continue kar sakti hai.

Agar recent dinon mein GBP/USD pair ka dekha jaye, to technically last candle ne saare bearish reversal hopes ko shatter kar diya hai. Specifically, humne monthly wide resistance zone ko break kiya, jo ke north mein continuation indicate karta hai recent candle ke sath. Humne trend channel ke trend line ke through upside exit kiya hai. Picture ko complete karne ke liye, weekly timeframe par chart dikhana chahunga, jahan maine next weekly-daily resistance zone ko price tags ke sath mark kiya hai. Price range kareeban 500 pips ke aas paas hai, jo kaafi high hai, lekin daily aur weekly charts par neeche koi significant selling zones nahi hain. However, yeh sirf mera opinion hai, aur yeh image mein show hota hai. Ek alternative scenario price retracement back into monthly resistance zone ka ho sakta hai.

Kal ke trading plan ko market ne achi tarah se accept kiya. Mera focus GBPUSD currency pair par rahega. Market ke current condition ko dekhne ke liye, chalo chart ko dekhte hain. H4 time frame ke mutabiq, kal ka market movement na to price ko zyada upar le gaya, aur na hi zyada neeche. Filhal, market movement buyers ke control mein hai aur iska chance hai ke yeh aage barh kar nearest resistance level ki taraf jaaye, kyunki running price RSI area ke upar hai.
Current market structure bearish se bullish mein trend reversal show kar raha hai, isliye price ke upar move karne ka kaafi chance hai. Iske ilawa, price strengthening is dafa resistance level 1.3140 par test karegi, aur yeh possibility ko bhi nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta ke yeh aage barh kar 1.0768 tak jaaye. Lekin, main anticipate kar raha hoon ke price Asian market session mein subah ke waqt correct hote hue sabse qareebi support area par, jo ke 1.3250 ke price par hai, downward move karegi.

Technical analysis se hum yeh nateeja nikal sakte hain ke GBPUSD pair mein current trend bullish hai, aur main sell ke bajaye buy karna prefer karunga, jisme price increase ka target nearest resistance level tak pohanchna hoga. Mera entry area support level 1.0472 par hoga, jisme SL ka distance kareeban 40 pips hoga aur minimum reward 40 se 50 pips ka hoga. Ek option yeh bhi hai ke aap apni position ko nearest resistance level par hold karen agar aap usay longer period tak rakhna chahte hain. Stocks abhi bhi acha buy consider hote hain jab tak stock ka price support level ke upar move nahi karta.

Friday ke early European trading mein GBP/USD 1.3097 par trade kar raha tha, jo ke 0.10% ka increase hai, aur yeh interesting territory mein 1.3105 ke qareeb chhatte din ke liye hai. Dollar abhi bhi overall ground lose kar raha hai kyunki buyers confident hain ke Federal Reserve apni forthcoming meeting mein September mein economic policy ko loosen karna shuru karega. Jackson Hole conference mein Friday ko Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell aur Bank of England (BoE) ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke speeches main event honge, jo ke entertainment prices ki trajectory par zyada roshni daal sakti hain. Jab woh apni inflation goal tak pohanchne ke liye fees ko neeche le aane ki demand kar rahe hain, to aksar Fed policymakers ne agle mahine ke liye lower fees ki demand ko support kiya hai, yeh July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ke minutes se pata chalta hai. Jab Friday ko Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein Federal Reserve ke chairman Jerome Powell speak karenge, sab ki nazar us par hogi. 1.3130 ke notable 13-month peak ke agay hua tha.

**GBP/USD Weekend Technical Analysis**

**Overview:**
Good Morning! Agar hum Bollinger Bands ka close examination karein, toh Friday ko ek significant signal samne aaya hai, jab dono bands outward expand hue aur price upper band ke saath track kar rahi thi. Yeh expansion upward movement ke liye increased potential ka indication deti hai, kyun ke dono bands ab tak outward open hain aur lower band mein ab tak koi inward turn ke signs nahi hain. Yeh configuration suggest karti hai ke bullish momentum continue ho sakta hai, lekin market ka response aane wale dinon mein is signal ki effectiveness ko determine karega.

**Fractal Levels aur Market Direction:**
Hum August 15 se shuru hone wale fractal levels par particularly focused hain. Ab tak koi downward fractal form nahi hui, isliye selling positions consider karne se pehle iska appearance ka wait karna advisable hai. GBP/USD pair mein directional movement ki uncertainty evident hai, jo ab tak ek clear price direction establish nahi kar payi hai. Pichle hafte ke bullish trend ke bawajood, GBP/USD ab consolidate karti hui nazar aa rahi hai aur 1.2690 ke resistance level ko surpass karne ke baad apne bullish trend ko extend karne ki potential rakhti hai.

**Market Sentiment aur Liquidity:**
Decisive movement ka na hona market mein kuch uncertainty ka reflection hai, jo shayad low liquidity ki wajah se hai, jis ne unclear price trends ko janam diya hai. Pichle hafte, humne GBP/USD mein ek sharp drop dekha, jo unexpected tha, jahan pair 1.2845 level se 1.2650 tak gir gayi, ek din mein 50 pips ka decline represent karti hui. Yeh sudden drop market sentiment ko hilane wala tha, jo shayad fundamental data, news events, ya major market players ke actions ki wajah se tha, jaise ke M30 chart mein dikhaya gaya hai. Yeh situation historical events se milti julti hai, jaise George Soros ke trade unwind aur subsequent pound collapse.

**Conclusion aur Recommendations:**
In tamam factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, traders ko ehtiyat ke saath aage barhna chahiye aur GBP/USD ke is critical juncture par further developments ka wait karna chahiye. Current market conditions mein opportunities zaroor hain, lekin inherent risks bhi hain. Isliye, key levels aur market signals ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai trading decisions lene se pehle.

Friday ko US Dollar (USD) ka target hai Pound Sterling (GBP) ki saatwin trading session winning streak. Saath hi, US Dollar (USD) apni Thursday ki upward advance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil mehsoos kar raha hai, jo zyadatar better-than-expected flash August S&P Global PMI data ki wajah se thi. Issi dauran, GBP/USD pair apne year-to-date high 1.3130 ke kareeb trade kar rahi hai.

Ye ummed hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein policy normalization ki taraf shift karega, is liye investors intizaar kar rahe hain ke interest rate cuts ke possible magnitude par koi clues mil sakein. Market players yeh bhi anticipate kar rahe hain ke baqi year ke liye interest rates aur economy ki state par guidance di jayegi.

Reuters ke mutabiq, Philadelphia Fed Bank ke President Patrick Harker ne Thursday ko JH event mein interview ke doran kaha ke central bank ko September se gradual easing program par zyada dhyan dena chahiye bajaye ke policy actions ke scope par. September mein, Boston Fed Bank ke President Susan Collins ne bhi interest rate cuts ke liye support ka izhar kiya. Collins ka kehna tha ke unhein yakeen hai ke Fed apne objectives ko bina recession ke achieve kar sakega.

4H Chart

Pound Sterling sirf thori si doori par hai apne do saal se zyada ke high 1.3140 se. GBP/USD pair ek Rising Channel chart pattern mein barh rahi hai, jahan market players har decline ko purchase ka mauqa samajh rahe hain. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) short se long tak higher slope dikha raha hai, jo overall bullish trend ko indicate kar raha hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) mazboot upward momentum dikhata hai, jo bullish region 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai. Halaanki, yeh 70.00 ke qareeb overbought levels tak barh gaya hai, jo ek corrective retreat ki possibility barha raha hai. Psychological level 1.3000 pound sterling ke bulls ke liye critical support hoga is fall mein.

GBPUSD ki movement kafi badi thi, kyun ke ye 100 pips tak move kar gaya. Us waqt candle 1.2765 se 1.2865 tak chal gayi thi, jiski wajah se Wednesday ki market opening pichle mahine se kafi uchi thi. Agar h1 timeframe se analyze karein, to candle abhi bhi supply area mein 1.2864 ke price par stuck hai. Jab tak ye supply area pass nahi hota, GBPUSD ki movement down hone ka possibility hai. Lekin agar supply area break ho jata hai, to movement continue upward bhi ho sakti hai. Ek doji candle pattern bhi resistance area mein nazar aayi hai, jo aam tor par GBPUSD ki movement ko down bana sakti hai. Agar supply area penetrate hota hai to GBPUSD ka target resistance ke upar, jo 1.2989 ke aas-paas hai, ho sakta hai. Aur agar GBPUSD movement down hoti hai, to support area 1.2684 ki taraf move kar sakti hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analyze karne par, since candle Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai, GBPUSD ki movement upwards jaane ki trend dikha rahi hai. Ye position indicate karti hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Indicator ye bhi batata hai ke Wednesday ko GBPUSD ke rise hone ke chances kafi hain, kyun ke candle Kumo ke upar bhi hai, jo indicate karta hai ke upward pressure strong hai.

Lekin stochastic indicator ye show kar raha hai ke GBPUSD overbought hai. Shayad near future mein GBPUSD ki movement gir sakti hai, lekin ye zaroori nahi hai, kabhi kabhi aise position mein price upar bhi ja sakti hai. Point ye hai ke stochastic agar level 20 ko penetrate karta hai, to mujhe cautious rehna hoga kyun ke movement kabhi bhi reverse ho sakti hai. Mere liye aaj GBPUSD ki rise par focus hai.

To conclusion ye hai ke aaj GBPUSD upar jayega agar supply area 1.2868 ko break kar deta hai, aur agar nahi hota to GBPUSD ki movement down ho sakti hai. Ichimoku indicator ke according candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hone ki wajah se, upward movement ke chances abhi bhi bade hain. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke buy position tab open karein jab supply break ho jaye. Take profit target ko nearest support 1.2790 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko resistance 1.2880 par place kar sakte hain

Hum is waqt GBP/USD currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko assess kar rahe hain. Aaj currency pair upward move kar raha hai, jese ke daily chart par dekha ja sakta hai. Yeh upward trend abhi tak barqarar hai. Sabse ahem sawal yeh hai ke yeh upward movement jaari rahegi ya phir doosri possibilities samne aa sakti hain? Chaliye, technical analysis ka mutaala karte hain taake outlook ka pata chal sake. Moving averages ek strong buy signal de rahe hain; technical indicators bhi ek bara purchase recommend karte hain, aur overall outlook yeh hai ke buying continue rahegi. Humein mazeed upward movement ka intezar karna chahiye, lekin ek faisla karna zaroori hai. Ab, chaliye is pair ke liye critical news ka jaiza lete hain. UK ne unemployment rate par data publish kiya hai, jo ek positive indicator hai. UK se doosri koi significant news nahi hai. Pair is resistance level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai; agar yeh level surpass kar leta hai aur iske upar hold karne me kamyab hota hai, toh buying target kal ke liye 1.29303 ka resistance level ho sakta hai.
Dusri taraf, US se aane wali news negative rahi hai, aur weekly US crude oil inventories release hone wali hain. Aaj ke liye, mera primary focus bullish trend par hoga, aur umeed hai ke price 1.2849 ke resistance level tak pohanch jayegi. Lekin sales ka possibility support level 1.2819 tak ho sakta hai, jise dekha jaye toh bullish trend jaari rehne ke imkanaat hain.

Thursday ko, pound-dollar pair ne hourly chart par range ke andar din ka aghaz kiya. Pehle yeh rise hui, phir drop karke 1.26534 ke support level tak pohanchi. Is support ke qareeb price ne rebound karte hue 1.27541 ke resistance level ki taraf move kiya, jise Friday ko falsely break kiya gaya. Ek false buy signal 1.28376 ke resistance level par emerge hua, jis ke baad ek sell signal aaya resistance ke breakdown ke wajah se, jo ke bhi untrue tha. Is level ke upar pair phir move kar gaya, aur doosra buy signal target kiya 1.28376 ke resistance ko.

GBP/USD ne Tuesday ko two-week high par rally ki, session peak 1.2873 tak barh gayi jab market sentiment ne buy button dhoond liya. US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation expected se zyada cool-off hui, jis ne Federal Reserve (Fed) se September mein rate cuts ke liye bets mein izafa kar diya, jab ke Cable traders ne UK unemployment claims ke multi-year peak ko nazar andaz kar diya.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures Wednesday ko dono taraf, Atlantic ke is paar bhi, release honay wali hain. Core UK CPI inflation ki umeed hai ke July mein YoY 3.4% tak neeche aayegi, jo pehle 3.5% thi. US side par, markets umeed kar rahe hain ke US inflation figures mein cool-off jaari rahega, aur July mein core US CPI 3.2% tak ease

GBP/USD

H4 timeframe chart par GBPUSD currency pair ko dekhte huye, pichle teen hafton se ye wapis bearish rasta ikhtiyar karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Is haftay ke market analysis ke mutabiq, ye saaf hai ke price abhi tak consistently downward trend mein hai aur 1.2671 ke price range tak neeche aa chuki hai. Pichle mahine, ye pair bullish trend ko continue karne mein nakam raha, magar aakhri kuch dino se trend general tor par bearish hai. Upar diye gaye conditions se ye nateeja nikalta hai ke agle market trend mein girawat ka silsila jari rehne ki umeed hai aur price ke neeche girne ka imkaan hai. Sellers ka ye potential hai ke wo price ko neeche ki taraf press karte rahein, taake ye 1.2650 ke price level ko test kare, ya ho sakta hai ke is se bhi neeche chala jaye. Kal raat ka bearish movement lambi muddat tak jari rehne ki umeed hai kyunki aaj bhi market mein consolidation phase jari hai
Aaj, pair ke conditions lagbhag wahi hain, ek aham kirdar 1.2680 ka support play kar sakta hai. Agar ye support 1.2680 ko tor kar neeche consolidate karne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to pair downward impulse ko 1.2570 tak continue karne mein kaamyab hoga, jahan se zyada imkaan hai ke rollback shuru ho aur phir wapis 1.2447 tak neeche jaye, magar is haftay mein ye possible nahi lagta. Agar ye 1.2680 ke support ko tor kar consolidate karne mein nakam rehta hai, to phir se growth 1.2750 ke resistance tak ho sakti hai, jahan ise tor kar ek aur impulse 1.2860 tak banane ka moka milega, jo ke upward trend ko 1.3065 ki taraf restore karne mein madadgar hoga. Magar is haftay, aisa growth hone ka imkaan kam hai. Agar wo 1.2860 ko torne mein kamiyab hote hain aur aaj 1.2750 ke resistance ko bhi torne mein kamiyab ho jate hain, tab bhi is haftay 1.300 se upar jane ka imkaan nahi hai, maximum 1.2970 tak ja sakta hai, aur us tak bhi pahunchne ke chances zyada nahi hain