جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

kyun ke aaj US Fed Chair Powell ka speech hai, jo market sentiment ko badal sakta hai. Is liye mujhe umeed hai ke market sellers ke favor mein rahegi, aur yeh 1.2621 zone ko cross kar sakte hain. Aane wali news bhi market sentiment ko bara asar de sakti hai aur trading results ko significant taur par influence kar sakti hai. Traders ko mashwara hai ke woh informed rahain aur apni strategies ko market dynamics ke mutabiq adjust karein. Market sentiment mein ayaan wali shifts ko anticipate karte hue, agar traders strategically position lein, to yeh unki ability ko enhance karega ke woh uncertainties ko navigate kar sakein aur favorable trading conditions ka fayda utha sakein. Aaj ka market ek behtareen buying opportunity paish kar raha hai, jahan buyer sentiment mazboot hai aur upward momentum ka potential hai. Agar traders prevailing market sentiment ke sath align karein aur well-defined buy strategies ko implement karein, to unke profitable outcomes ke chances barh jate hain. Disciplined trading practices par zor dena aur fundamental insights ka leverage lena traders ko market ke complexities mein confidently navigate karne mein madad deta hai. Agar woh market developments se well-informed rahain aur evolving conditions par adeptly respond karein, to woh apni trading strategies ko refine kar sakte hain aur financial markets ke dynamic landscape mein opportunities ka fayda utha sakte hain.


GBP/USD pair us waqt barh gaya jab US Dollar (USD) Wednesday ko strong bounce ke baad thoda gir gaya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chay major currencies ke muqabley track karta hai, immediate resistance 101.20 ke upar recovery extend karne ki koshish kar raha hai.
Greenback ko apni recent rebound ko maintain karna mushkil hoga kyunke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke almost sure hone ke bawajood ke September meeting se interest rates ko reduce karna shuru kar diya jayega. Jabke traders divided hain ke Fed policy-easing spell ko 25 ya 50-basis-points (bps) cut se start karega, rate reduction already priced in hai.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish commentary ne jo last week Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein diya tha, Fed ke September se interest rates cut karne ke speculation ko mazbooti di hai. Powell ne kaha ke “policy ko adjust karne ka waqt aa gaya hai,” jo ke yeh highlight karta hai ke US central bank ab labor market ke downside risks ko lekar zyada concerned hai jab

Recent market movements in the currency pair reflect significant shifts influenced by central bank decisions and economic indicators. Bank of England (BoE) ke recent policy adjustments ke baad, GBP/USD ek 'hammer' candlestick pattern banata nazar aa raha hai, jo ke 2.21% ki kami ke baad aaya. Yeh technical formation potential upward momentum ko signal kar sakti hai, jisse price 1.3120 level ke upar chadh sakti hai aur 1.3100 mark ko dobara dekh sakti hai. BoE ke borrowing costs ko kam karne ke bawajood, unki policy restrictive hi rahi hai, largely inflation expectations ke 2.25% tak barhane ki wajah se. Current market dynamics central bank policies aur economic data ke beech ek tug-of-war ko reflect karte hain. Jaise BoE aur Fed apne respective policy paths ko navigate kar rahe hain, GBP/USD traders ko inflation trends aur interest rate adjustments ke further clues ke liye alert rehna chahiye. In developments ke results future market movements aur trading strategies ko impact karenge.

Central Bank Moves: Powell Hints at Rate Cut, Bailey Defends Policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ne rate cut ke potential ke bare mein hint diya hai agar inflation expectations ke sath align hoti hai, economic growth robust rehta hai, aur labor market apne current trend par rehta hai. Reuters ne Powell ke comments report kiye hain, jo suggest karte hain ke aisa move Fed ke September meeting ke doran consider kiya ja sakta hai. Iske bawajood, US Dollar ne policy-inspired sell-off ke baad rebound kiya. Lekin, yeh apne gains ko maintain karne mein struggle kar raha hai, ek weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ke wajah se. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ko chay bade currencies ke khilaf naapta hai, ab tak 101.89 par aa gaya hai jo intraday low 100.48 se upar hai.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne recently Bank ki decision ko defend kiya hai jo policy rate ko 5% par kam kiya gaya. Bailey ne media inquiries ko address karte hue bataya ke minimum wage ka barhna unke perspective se detrimental nahi hai. Unhone point out kiya ke firms aksar argue karti hain ke higher minimum wages pay scales ko compress karti hain, lekin overall inflation trajectory, including potential risks, ab 2% target ke nazdeek hai jo ke pehle ke forecasts ke muqablay mein.

/USD currency pair ne 1.3219 ka level touch kiya aur phir hourly chart pe is level ke neeche position secure ki. Lekin trend abhi poora bearish nahi hai, is liye selling ka option itna safe nahi lagta. Kal aap ne kaha tha ke 1.3189 level aik acha selling point ho sakta hai, lekin agar kisi ko thoda risk lena ho toh 1.3239 resistance level ke qareeb ek signal mil sakta hai, jo ke pichle hafte ka high tha. Is waqt lagta hai ke pound 1.3189 ke qareeb close karega. Halat abhi thori unclear hai, aur subah tak hi pata chalega ke market kis taraf jaayegi. Trading ke liye yeh mera approach hai shaam mein aksar mein thak jata hoon aur cheezein dhundhli lagne lagti hain, lekin subah price action ko dekh ke trading plan bana leta hoon. Asia session ke baad GBP/USD ne girna shuru kiya, 1.3269 se shuruaat ki. Sellers ne local trend ko tor diya hai aur 1.3174 ka early support level test kar rahe hain. Agar sellers is 1.3174 mark ko tor dete hain (aur hourly candle neeche close hoti hai), toh mein sochta hoon ke yeh girawat 1.3089 tak jaari rahegi. Dusri taraf, agar price upar 1.3249 tak chali jati hai, toh wahan se girawat wapas aa sakti hai. D1 time frame ke analysis se yeh pata chalta hai ke aaj ki D1 candle kal ke high ko cross nahi kar saki aur ab neeche aagayi hai, jo ke kal ke opening ke qareeb hai. Lekin abhi kaafi waqt baaqi hai D1 candle ke close hone ka, is liye predict karna mushkil hai ke yeh candle kis shakal mein close hogi. Mere khayal mein yeh bearish overlap ke saath close hogi. Yeh pattern ek poora reversal nahi lagta, lekin upper Bollinger band ke qareeb aik temporary pause ka indication de raha hai. Neeche diye gaye graph ko dekhte hue lagta hai ke candlestick abhi bhi 1.3200 ke price level ke upar comfortably trade kar rahi hai. Mere nazar mein, yeh aik bullish potential ka indication ho sakta hai. Sellers ka pressure zaroor hai, lekin yeh condition temporary lagti hai, aur girawat ka silsila khatam ho sakta hai. Agle trading session mein lagta hai ke bullish trend ka continuation dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo shayad kal Friday ke session tak chalta rahe

Spot price ne Friday ko halki si pullback dekhi, jo 1.3150 mark ke thoda upar gir gayi. Yeh movement Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data ke drop ke baad samne aayi, jo dono Atlantic sides se aayi thi. Chaar din ke winning streak ke baad, ab yeh pair ek ehtiyaat se dekhe jaane wala outlook face kar raha hai, jabke trading week ke doosre hisson mein dakhil ho raha hai. Traders ab UK ka Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures aur US Retail Sales data par focus rakhenge, jo pair ke performance ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, GBP/USD lagbhag 1.3132 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

Maujooda market conditions aur technical indicators ke mutabiq, traders ke liye ehtiyaat baratna zaroori hai. Agar selling ka strong follow-through dekha jaye, toh yeh three-week-old downtrend ka izafa ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar GBP/USD key support levels ke neeche girta hai. Dosri taraf, agar yeh pair in supports ke ooper qaim rehta hai, toh yeh short-term trading opportunities paida kar sakta hai.

### GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Moqaddas Sharq mein recent developments ne forex market mein complexity ka ek aur pehlu shamil kar diya hai. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq, Iran Israel par direct hamlay ki tayari kar raha hai, jo Tehran mein Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh ke qatal ka jawab ho sakta hai. Aise geopolitical tensions global markets ko aur by extension USD ko mutasir kar sakti hain. Agar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se significant interest rate cuts ki umeedein barqarar rehti hain, toh yeh USD ke bullishness ko thanda kar sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ke liye support ban sakta hai.

Aham economic releases, jaise ke UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data ke agay anay ke baad, market mein izafi volatility ka khatara ho sakta hai. Yeh reports economic trends par mazeed wazeh picture paish kar sakti hain aur currency movements ko bhi mutasir kar sakti hain. Traders ko in releases ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyun ke yeh market sentiment ko sway karne aur GBP/USD dynamics ko mutasir karne ka sabab ban sakti hain.

### Four-Hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price apni descending channel ke lower boundary par test kar sakti hai, jo ke filhal 1.3055 ke aas-paas hai. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, toh downward pressure mein izafa ho sakta hai, jo pair ko August mein note ki gayi throwback support 1.3001 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai. Halanke, price action filhal subdued hai, lekin downward momentum mein halka izafa dekha gaya hai. Bawajood iske, koi bhi decline umeed hai ke 1.3080 support level ke ooper hold karega. Upar ke taraf, resistance 1.3080 aur 1.3200 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Friday ki Asian session tak GBP/USD ne apni do din ki advance ko roka, aur lagbhag 1.3160 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ke mutabiq, pair descending channel mein consolidate ho raha hai, jo ke prevailing bearish bias ko dikhata hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bhi is bearish sentiment ke saath align hai, kyun ke MACD line signal line aur centerline ke neeche hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 50 level ke neeche hold kar raha hai, jo bearish outlook ko aur reinforce karta hai.

Spot price ne Friday ko halka sa pullback experience kiya, jo ke 1.3150 mark se thoda upar aa gaya. Yeh movement Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data mein dono taraf ke girawat ke baad dekhne ko mili. Chaar din ke winning streak ke baad, ab pair ke liye outlook ehtiyat se dekha ja raha hai, jab ke trading week ke aakhri hisse mein UK ka Gross Domestic Product (GDP) aur US Retail Sales data anay wala hai, jo pair ki performance ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Latest update ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3132 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai.
Mojooda market halat aur technical indicators ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, traders ko ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai. Agar selling ka silsila mazid taqat pakarta hai, to yeh teen hafton se chalti hui downtrend ka naya silsila shuru honay ka ishara ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar GBP/USD ne key support levels ko break kar diya. Dosri taraf, agar pair ne in supports ke upar rehne mein kaamyabi hasil ki, to yeh short-term trading opportunities paida kar sakta hai.

GBP/USD ke fundamentals:

Recent developments in the Middle East ne forex market mein complexity ka ek naya pehlu daal diya hai. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq, Iran shayad Israel par direct hamla karne ki tayari kar raha hai, jo Tehran mein Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh ke qatal ka jawab ho sakta hai. Aise geopolitical tensions global markets ko mutasir kar sakti hain, aur is se USD ke sath GBP/USD pair bhi asar le sakta hai. Agar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se significant interest rate cuts ki umeed barqarar rehti hai, to yeh aggressive USD bullishness ko kam kar sakti hai aur GBP/USD pair ke liye achi hawa ka kaam kar sakti hai.

Economic releases ka waqt qareeb hai, jisme UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data shamil hain, jo market mein volatility paida kar sakte hain. Yeh reports mazeed clarity dein gi ke economic trends kis taraf hain aur currency movements ko kis tarah se asar dal rahe hain. Traders ko yeh reports ghor se dekhni chahiye, kyun ke yeh market sentiment ko sway kar sakti hain aur GBP/USD dynamics ko mutasir kar sakti hain.

Four-hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price apne descending channel ke lower boundary, jo ke 1.3055 ke qareeb hai, ko test kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, to downward pressure mazeed barh sakta hai, jo pair ko August mein dekhe gaye throwback support 1.3001 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Halankeh price action kaafi subdued hai, lekin downward momentum mein halka izafa dekha gaya hai. Magar yeh girawat expect ki jati hai ke 1.3080 support level se upar hi rahe gi. Upar ki taraf, resistance 1.3080 aur 1.3200 pe dekhi ja rahi hai.

Asiayi session mein Friday ko GBP/USD ne apni do din ki advance ko pause kiya, aur 1.3160 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai. Daily chart yeh dikhata hai ke pair descending channel mein consolidate ho raha hai, jo ke prevailing bearish bias ka ishara hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bhi is bearish sentiment ke sath align karta hai, kyun ke MACD line signal line aur centerline ke neeche hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 50 level se neeche hai, jo bearish outlook ko mazid taqat deta hai.

Spot price ne Friday ko slight pullback experience kiya aur 1.3150 mark se thoda upar decline hui. Yeh movement dono taraf ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data ke dip ke baad aayi. Char din ki winning streak ke baad, ab pair ko trading week ke second half mein cautious outlook ka saamna hai. Traders ab upcoming UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures aur US Retail Sales data par focus karenge, jo pair ki performance ko influence kar sakte hain. Latest update ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3132 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai.

Haalat aur technical indicators ko dekhte hue, traders ke liye ihtiyaat baratna zaroori hai. Agar selling ka strong follow-through hota hai, toh yeh teen hafton se chal rahe downtrend ki dobara shuruwat ki taraf ishara karega, khaas tor par agar GBP/USD key support levels ke neeche girta hai. Agar pair inn supports ke upar rehne mein kamyab ho jata hai, toh short-term trading opportunities mil sakti hain.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Middle East ki recent developments ne forex market mein complexity daal di hai. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran Israel par direct attack ki tayyari kar raha hai Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ki Tehran mein assassination ke jawab mein. Aise geopolitical tensions global markets aur USD ko influence kar sakte hain. Agar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se interest rate cuts ki umeed barqarar rehti hai, toh yeh aggressive USD bullishness ko temper kar sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ko support provide kar sakta hai.

Important economic releases jaisay ke UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data ke saath, market participants ko potential volatility ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Yeh reports economic trends ko clear karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hain aur currency movements ko impact kar sakti hain. Traders ko in releases ko closely monitor karne ki zaroorat hai kyun ke yeh market sentiment ko sway kar sakte hain aur GBP/USD dynamics ko influence kar sakte hain.

Four-hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price crucial support ko test kar sakti hai jo ke is waqt descending channel ke lower boundary, yani ke 1.3055 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, toh downward pressure increase ho sakta hai, jo pair ko throwback support 1.3001 ki taraf le ja sakta hai jo August mein note ki gayi thi. Halanke price action generally subdued hai, downward momentum mein thoda increase observe kiya gaya hai. Lekin, kisi bhi decline ke 1.3080 support level ke upar rehne ki umeed hai. Upside par, resistance 1.3080 aur 1.3200 par dekhi ja sakti hai.

Friday ki Asian session tak, GBP/USD ne apni two-day advance ko pause kiya hai, aur 1.3160 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai. Daily chart dikhata hai ke pair descending channel mein consolidate ho raha hai, jo bearish bias ko suggest karta hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bhi is bearish sentiment ke sath align hai kyun ke MACD line signal line aur centerline ke neeche hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 50 level se neeche hold kar raha hai, jo bearish outlook ko reinforce karta hai.

Spot price ne Friday ko thori si pullback dekhi, jo ke 1.3150 ke aas paas decline hua. Yeh movement CPI inflation data ke girawat ke baad aayi, jo dono sides of the Atlantic pe dekhi gayi. Chaar din ki winning streak ke baad, pair ab cautious outlook ka saamna kar raha hai jab yeh trading week ke doosre hisson mein ja raha hai. Traders aane wale UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data pe nazar rakh rahe hain, jo pair ke performance ko influence kar sakti hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, GBP/USD 1.3132 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

Maujooda market conditions aur technical indicators ko dekhte hue, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Agar selling mein strong follow-through dekha gaya, toh yeh teen hafton purani downtrend ke wapas aane ka signal ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar GBP/USD key support levels se neeche girta hai. Wahi agar pair in supports ke upar banay rakhta hai, toh yeh short-term trading opportunities de sakta hai.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Middle East mein recent developments ne forex market ko complex bana diya hai. Israeli intelligence reports kehti hain ke Iran shayad Israel par direct attack ki tayari kar raha hai, jo Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh ki Tehran mein assassination ke jawab mein ho sakta hai. Aise geopolitical tensions global markets aur USD ko influence kar sakti hain. Agar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke significant interest rate cuts ki ummeed barqarar rahi, toh yeh aggressive USD bullishness ko kam kar sakti hai aur GBP/USD pair ke liye tailwind provide kar sakti hai.

Aane wale economic releases, including UK GDP growth figures aur US Retail Sales data, ke saath market participants ko potential volatility ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Yeh reports economic trends ko clear kar sakti hain aur currency movements ko impact kar sakti hain. Traders ko in releases ko dhyan se monitor karna chahiye kyunke yeh market sentiment ko sway kar sakti hain aur GBP/USD dynamics ko influence kar sakti hain.

Four-hour Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Spot price crucial support ko test kar sakta hai jo ke descending channel ke lower boundary pe hai, jo ke filhal 1.3055 ke aas paas hai. Agar is level ko breach kiya gaya, toh yeh downward pressure ko badha sakta hai, jo pair ko August ke throwback support 1.3001 ki taraf push kar sakta hai. Halanke price action generally subdued hai, thoda increase in downward momentum dekha gaya hai. Phir bhi, kisi bhi decline ka 1.3080 support level ke upar rehna expected hai. Upar ki taraf, resistance 1.3080 aur 1.3200 pe dekha gaya hai.

Friday ke Asian session ke mutabiq, GBP/USD ne apni do din ki advance ko pause kar diya hai, aur 1.3160 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart se yeh pata chalta hai ke pair ek descending channel ke andar consolidate kar raha hai, jo bearish bias ko suggest karta hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bhi is bearish sentiment ke saath align karta hai, kyunke MACD line signal line aur centerline ke neeche hai. Saath hi, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level ke neeche hai, jo bearish outlook ko reinforce karta hai.

GBP/USD ka Technical Tajziya

Pichlay kaam ke haftay mein pound ne uptrend ko dobara shuru karne ki koshish ki, lekin apni position ko barqarar nahi rakh saka aur local highs banane ke baad girawat ka shikar ho gaya. Pehlay, price 1.3170 ke level ke upar gayi, magar wahan ek wazeh rukawat ka samna karna pada, jis ki wajah se price sari positions kho kar wapis 1.3082 ke qareebi level par aa gayi. Is liye, jo expected growth thi woh hasil nahi ho saki, magar target ka area ab bhi workable hai. Is ke sath sath, price chart supertrend red zone mein move karna shuru ho gaya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke sellers apni koshishon ko barqarar rakhe hue hain.

Aaj ke technical front par, agar hum 4-hour chart par nazar dalain, toh negative pressure simple moving averages par dikhai de raha hai, jo ke daily downward price curve ko support kar raha hai. Yeh chart par ek bearish technical structure ka izhar karta hai. Iss liye, aaj ke trading session ke dauran downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jahan 1.3050 agla ahem level hoga, aur target mazeed gir ke 1.3000 tak jaane ka imkaan hai. Aam tor par, jab tak trading 1.3130 ke neeche stable rehti hai, hum overall bearish trend ke hawale se optimistic rahain ge. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh bearish scenario khatam ho jaye ga, aur pair 1.3170 ki taraf move karega. Yeh dobara retest ko trigger karega, aur mazeed izafa kar ke 1.3200 ke level tak jaane ka imkaan hai.

Is waqt, pair mixed trading kar raha hai aur har hafte mein thori si tabdeeli dekh raha hai. Ahem support areas test ho rahe hain aur stable hain, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke upside vector ab bhi important hai. Agar price ko near-term mein barqarar rakhna hai, toh zaroori hai ke yeh 1.3082 ke level ke upar consolidate kare, jo ke ek major support area hoga. Agar is area ka retest hota hai aur wahan se price rebound karti hai, toh yeh sustainable advance ka ek acha moqa ho ga, aur target area 1.3427 aur 1.3500 ke beech mein ho ga.

Maujooda scenario us waqt cancel ho jaye ga jab support break hoga aur price pivot level 1.2994 ke neeche gir jaye gi.

GBP/USD Ka Tajziya Aur Trading Ke Liye Raahnamai:**
GBP/USD jori ne Wednesday ko U.S. JOLTs report ke base par upar trading ki. July mein job openings ka number market ke expectations se kaafi kam tha, aur jab July mein unemployment rate bhi barh gaya, toh aur bhi kuch ummeed nahi thi. Market ko phir se weak US data ne disappoint kiya, jo ke market aur experts dono ki expectations se kam tha. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke market participants ke liye actual value nahi balki forecast important hota hai. Agar forecast baar-baar zyada high set kiya jata hai, toh wo kabhi bhi meet nahi hota, aur US dollar aur kuch saalon tak girta rah sakta hai. Yeh currency market ki halat hai aaj kal. Haftay ke do din abhi baaki hain aur abhi bhi kai important macroeconomic data release honi hai. GBP/USD jori apne last local high se sirf thoda hi upar gayi hai. Agar baaki reports, jo ke labor, business activity, aur unemployment par hain, bhi weak hoti hain, toh pound is haftay 1.3250 ke level par wapas aa sakta hai.

Wednesday ko 5-minute time frame par do buy signals ban gaye. Price ne 1.3102-1.3107 ke area se do baar rebound kiya aur phir 1.3145-1.3167 ke area tak uthi, jahan se bhi rebound hua. Is tarah se, long positions ne novice traders ko kuch dozen pips ka profit dilaya. 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound bhi kiya ja sakta tha, lekin aaj pair ko phir se rise continue karna chahiye agar US reports forecast se kamzor nikli toh.

**Thursday Ko Trading Karne Ka Tareeqa:**

Hourly time frame par GBP/USD ko global downward trend resume karne ya kam se kam kuch decline ka achha chance hai. British pound abhi bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har mauke ko British currency ko buy karne aur dollar ko sell karne ke liye use kar rahi hai. Filhal, pound sirf minor bearish correction dikhata hai, aur full-fledged downtrend ke bare mein baat karna abhi jaldi hai.

Thursday ko, pair ke niche move karne ki umeed hai kyun ke trend line breach ho chuki hai. Kal, price 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound hui thi. Lekin aaj dollar rate bhi US macro data par depend karega.

5-minute timeframe par key levels hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Wednesday ko UK business activity in the construction sector ka secondary report release hoga, jo ke August ke liye second estimate hai. Zyada important reports, jaise ADP aur ISM services sector mein, US mein release hongi. Major movements phir se din ke dusre

GBP/USD: Bazaar ki Harakat ka Jaiza
GBP/USD currency pair ke price action ka jaiza humare tajziya aur guftagu ka markazi mozu hai. Yeh zaroori hai ke hum dekhein ke GBP/USD pair ka pehle jo izafa huwa tha woh na-jaaiz lag raha tha aur ab woh mukammal nazar aata hai. Isliye, ab trading ke doran technical aur fundamental analysis par bharosa karna mumkin hai. Yeh analysis ek mazboot girawat ka ishara de rahe hain. Isliye humein ummeed hai ke downward trend aage bhi barhega. Hum yeh bhi madde nazar rakhte hain ke Bank of England ke rate cut ke intezar se pehle humein ECB aur Fed ke rate cuts se guzarna hoga. Pound par pressure zahir hai. Chaar ghante ke chart par, jahan bears ka izafa lagta hai, wahan ulta bulls ke horns nazar aa rahe hain: dono tarah se configure kiye gaye MACDs selling waves mein hain, lekin signal bands histogram se baahar nikal gayi hain; humein buying signals ke shuruati marahil nazar aa rahe hain.




Mujhe lagta hai ke GBP/USD pair ka izafa khatam nahi hua aur humein ek aur price jump ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Agar hum aaj choti timeframe par pair ko dekhen, to humein price reversal ke pehle asraat nazar aate hain. Pair price level 1.3036 ke upar hai aur aage barhne ki koshish kar raha hai kyunke bearish trend ki quwati khatam ho gayi hai aur bulls ne karyawaai sambhal li hai. Sab se pehle, humein upar ki taraf jana hoga aur level 1.3116 ki quwat ko test karna hoga; agar sab kuch theek raha, to hum agle upar ki movement ki ummeed karenge. Is tarah, agar price 1.3060-1.3070 ke range mein izafa hota hai, to hum sales transactions ko profit ke liye 1.2965 par support dekh sakte hain, uske baad is support ke ilaqe mein buying signals dekh kar 1.3270-1.3280 ke ilaqe mein purchases ke liye dekhna hoga, magar ye medium-term perspective ke liye hoga.

Thursday ko Asian session ke doran, currency pair ne teen din ke girawat ke baad rebound kiya aur 1.3046 ke aas-paas trade kiya. Yeh uchaal zyada tar USD ke kamzor hone ki wajah se hai, kyunki market expectations barh gayi hain ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) September se zyada aggressive rate cut kar sakta hai.
Wage Growth ka Inflation par Asar:

Ab khidmat ke inflation par dhyan diya ja raha hai, jo June mein 5.7% YoY par barqarar raha. Yeh do mahine ke zyada ummed se barh kar hone ke baad hai. Khidmat ke inflation ka stable hona ek positive sign hai aur isse yeh bhi lagta hai ke Bank of England (BoE) November mein rate cut kar sakta hai. Lekin, inflation figures mein izafa foran interest rate hike ko janam nahi dega, kyunki policymakers maan rahe hain ke economic path abhi bhi uncertain hai. Doosri taraf, short term mein rate cut na ke barabar hai, officials ka kehna hai ke “monetary policy tab tak restrictive rehni chahiye jab tak inflation ko medium term mein 2% target par sustainable return ke risks door nahi ho jate.”

Service sector mein price pressures zyada tar wage growth se affect hoti hain, jo recently do saalon mein lowest level par aa gayi hai teen mahine ke liye ending in June. Latest
report kehti hai ke Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses 5.4% se barh gayi hai, jo ke pichle quarter mein 5.7% thi. Wage growth ki is slow down se BoE policymakers ki chinta kuch kam ho sakti hai jo short term mein wage pressures manage karne ko lekar pareshan hain.



GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis aur Support Levels:

Kal GBP ka 1.3000 mark ke aas-paas sharp decline ke baad, hamare analysis ne yeh highlight kiya ke renewed momentum ek persistent downside risk ka ishara hai. 1.3000 level, jo ke June ke low se match karta hai, ne achi support di hai. Hum is bearish outlook ko tab tak barqarar rakhenge jab tak GBP/USD strong resistance level 1.3109 ko break nahi karta. Jab tak price 1.3120 ke neeche rahegi, further declines ka imkaan hai, lekin 1.3145 ke neeche girawat ka hona mushkil lagta hai.

Pair ne 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 1.3078 ke neeche resilience dikhayi hai, aur is week ke shuruat mein one-month low ke aas-paas dip-buyers ko attract kiya. Is ke bawajood, spot prices recent uptick ko barhane mein struggle kar rahi hain aur abhi sirf modest intraday gains dikhayi de rahi hain, jo 1.3100 ke aas-paas hai.

Price abhi bhi aik mushkil market environment mein navigate kar rahi hai, aur 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.2964 ke upar halki si position mein hai. Is ke bawajood, bullish recovery ki ummeed dheere dheere kam hoti ja rahi hai kyunki pair mazbooti se establish nahi ho pa rahi. July ke mid mein 12-month peak se lagbhag 3% girne ke baad, Pound Sterling (GBP) ab ek nazuk position mein hai, aur long-term buyers potential rebound ke patterns ko dhyan se dekh rahe hain.
GBP/USD ka Rebound aur US Dollar ka Kamzor Hona CPI Report ke Baad

Spot price intraday lows se rebound hua aur North American trading session ke doran 1.3070 tak pahuncha. Yeh uchaal USD Index ke kamzor hone ke baad aaya, jab United States Consumer Price Index report release hui. Report ne bataya ke July mein inflationary pressures ke asar kam hue, jis se USD gir gaya. USD, jo ke Greenback ki strength ko chay major currencies ke against measure karta hai, naye weekly low par 101.50 ke aas-paas gir gaya.

CPI report ne inflation ka mixed picture diya. Annual headline inflation aur core inflation (food aur energy ko chhod kar) thoda dheema ho kar 2.9% aur 3.2% par aa gaya, jo ke June ke levels se kam hai. Mahine ke hisaab se, headline aur core CPI dono 0.2% barh gaye, jo ke forecasts ke sath align karta hai. Yeh data suggest karta hai ke inflation Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 2% target ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jis se Fed ke potential interest rate cuts ke speculation ko tez mila hai.




Technical Analysis aur Market Sentiment

Aik key technical level hai 1.3110. Agar is level ke upar breach hota hai, to yeh indicate karega ke GBP ki recent strength mazbooti se barqarar hai. Lekin, abhi tak yeh scenario materialize nahi hua hai. Is ke bajaye, GBP/USD 1.3001 se 1.3151 ke range mein trade kar raha hai aur 1.3076 par relatively unchanged band hua hai. Halankeh downward momentum mein koi significant izafa nahi hua, lekin prevailing sentiment GBP ke liye bearish bias ko suggest karta hai. Agar psychological support level 1.3000 ke neeche girta hai, to pair 1.2911 ke ilaqe ki taraf ja sakti hai.

Despite weekly lows se bounce hone ke bawajood, GBP/USD abhi bhi mushkil mein hai. Market momentum abhi sellers ke favor mein hai, halankeh buyers short term mein kuch control dikha rahe hain. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) neutral 50 line ke neeche hai lekin upwards trend dikhata hai, jo market dynamics mein potential shifts ko indicate karta hai.

GBP/USD
Sab ko Salaam aur Good Morning!

Aaj US ka unemployment rate 230K se kam hoke 227K ho gaya, lekin isse GBP/USD market mein zyada uthal-puthal nahi hui. Employment data mein positive change ke bawajood, currency pair par iska asar relatively kam raha. Lagta hai ke market zyada significant economic developments ka intezar kar rahi hai. Magar mujhe lagta hai ke aane wali khabrein buyers ya sellers ko GBP/USD market mein dominance hasil karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hain. US ke Producer Price Index (PPI) aur Core PPI mein bhi thodi si izafa hua hai, jo 0.1% se barh kar 0.2% ho gaya hai. Yeh halka sa izafa US economy mein inflationary pressure ko darshata hai, jo US dollar ki value ko aur bhi mutasir kar sakta hai. Kamzor dollar GBP/USD buyers ke liye faida mand ho sakta hai, jo further upward momentum ka sabab ban sakta hai. London trading hours ke doran, traders ke liye yeh aik aham waqt hai dekhne ke liye. PPI ke izafe ke baad US dollar mein kamzori ke nishan hain, jisse GBP/USD market ko bullish push mil sakta hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke pair 1.3100 zone ko cross kar jaye, jo aik psychological level hai aur aksar market movements mein support aur resistance ke taur par kaam karta hai. Traders ko is level ke around potential price action ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, kyunki yeh market sentiment mein tabdeeli ka signal de sakta hai. Aakhir mein, jab ke US unemployment rate ki kami ne zyada volatility ko trigger nahi kiya, aane wali khabrein market direction tay karne mein ek aham kirdar ada kar sakti hain. US PPI aur Core PPI ke izafe ne US dollar ko kamzor kar diya hai, jo GBP/USD ko 1.3100 level ke upar le ja sakta hai London trading session ke doran. Dono buyers aur sellers in developments ko closely monitor karenge apne agle steps decide karne ke liye.

GBP/USD D1 Chart

GBP/USD currency pair ne jumay ke roz Asian trading session ke dauran positive territory mein trade kiya, jo ke US dollar ki jari kamzori ki wajah se support ho raha tha. Market ke shirka daar ab August ke US non-farm payrolls data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision ke hawalay se imkanaat ko kafi mutasir karega. Pehle haftay mein Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report ne August mein private sector job growth mein girawat dikhayi, jo ke Fed ke taraf se rate cut ka imkaan zahir karti hai. Markets filhaal September 17-18 ke aane wale meeting mein ek rate cut ko price kar rahe hain.

Pound ko is baat se bhi support mil raha hai ke Bank of England (BoE) se bhi rate cut ka imkaan hai. Halaanki BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne yeh zahir kiya hai ke inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain, magar unhone rate cut mein jaldbazi karne se mutaliq ehtiyaat baratne ka mashwara diya hai. Investors ne BoE ke rate cut ka 25% chance price kiya hai, lekin November tak rate cut ka imkaan poori tarah se price ho chuka hai.

Yeh GBP/USD exchange rate ka aik daily chart hai. Market mein buyers ki tadaad sellers se zyada hai, kyun ke agar aisa nahi hota, toh quote neeche gir raha hota, na ke barh raha hota. Market mein sellers majood hain, lekin unka volume buyers ke volume ke muqable mein kam hai. Jab buyers apni purchases ko fix karna shuru karenge, tab situation alag hogi. Lekin ab growth slow ho chuki hai, aur yeh mumkin hai ke aaj buyers apni positions ko fix karna shuru karen, jo ke sellers ke liye rasta khol dega.

Yeh pair overbought ho chuka hai aur is waqt ke rates ke muqable mein mehnga lag raha hai. Is liye, British pound ko short karna shuru kiya ja sakta hai. Current prices ke area mein, aap har 40-50 points ke difference par sales ki grid collect karna shuru kar sakte hain aur exit 38.20% level par kar sakte hain jo ke Fibonacci grid ke hisaab se hai. Yeh non-rollback movement pichlay haftay ka hai, jo ke 150 points se zyada ka non-rollback movement tha.

Ab jab ke pair ke peaks par aur is qeemat par khareedne walay log kam hote jayenge, unka volume bhi kam hota jayega, aur yeh sellers ke liye mauqa paida karega.

GBP/USD Market Analysis
13 September 2024

GBP/USD jo jo kharch kar raha hai SBR 1.3090 ke ilaqay aur support 1.3013 ke darmiyan. Agar price is upward rally ko jaari rakhti hai as a correction phase, to price SBR 1.3090 area ko test karegi taake ye SMA 200 tak jaa sake. Lekin agar price EMA 50 ke against rejection ka samna karti hai to ye 1.3013 support ko test karegi taake ek naya lower low pattern bana sake. Stochastic indicator jo oversold zone 20 - 10 tak nahi pohncha aur pehle 50 level par cross hua, ye is baat ki nishani hai ke upward price correction khatam nahi hui hai. Agar New York session me economic data report US Dollar ke outlook ko support nahi karti, to GBP/USD pair ka price movement upar ki taraf supported hoga. Ek invalidation level hai high prices 1.3110 jo agar successfully pass hota hai to ek higher high - higher low structure trigger karega. Lekin abhi price ke niche move karne ki probability zyada hai kyun ke trend direction abhi bhi bearish hai.

Trading plan ko abhi bhi short-term bearish trend ke hisaab se dekhna chahiye aur SELL moment ka intezar karna chahiye. Entry point position ka jab price 1.3090 ke SBR area ke aaspaas upar ki taraf correct karti hai aur rejection ka samna karti hai. Confirmation ke liye Stochastic indicator parameter agar overbought zone 90 - 80 me pohnchta hai aur cross hota hai to. Take profit ka target support 1.3013 aur stop loss high prices 1.3143 ke aaspaas rakhna chahiye.