Eurusd forum

**USD/JPY Technical Analysis:**
USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein ek ahem support level 144.53 ko break kiya hai, jo ke downtrend ke continuation ko zahir karta hai. Is breakout ke baad, pair mein 99-point ki girawat hui, aur phir ek correction ka attempt dekhne ko mila jismein buyers ne price ko 144.53 resistance level tak wapis le aaya. Ye ek mazboot moqa ho sakta hai sell positions kholne ka, jismein target range 140-141 ke darmiyan ho sakti hai for further declines. Magar agar pair 144.53 level se rebound karta hai, to ek recovery ka moqa ho sakta hai jo agle target 146.38 tak ja sakta hai.

**Hourly Chart Analysis:**

Hourly chart par ek ascending channel, jo ek flag pattern jaisa lagta hai, ek nai downtrend ki possibility ko zahir karta hai. Dusri taraf, H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein trade kar raha hai, jismein recent bounce uske lower boundary se aaya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke upar break hoti hai, to ek buying strategy viable option ban sakti hai, jo 145.69 target ko aim karegi.

**Recent Market Trends:**

Thursday ko, Japanese yen ne apna 14 months ka lowest level touch kiya US dollar ke against, jo ke 140.41 par tha. Ye girawat broader market trend ka hissa hai jahan yen kamzor hoti gayi, khaaskar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policy mein tabdeelion ki wajah se. BoJ ne zyada hawkish stance apnaya jab usne interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya, jiski wajah se yen carry trades unwind hui. Iske ilawa, "Yenterventions" ne yen ko support diya, jo multi-decade lows se 12.5% tak recover hui.

**Market Sentiment:**

Abhi market sentiment yen ke ird gird BoJ ki policy changes, market interventions, aur global economic factors par base karta hai. Agar broader picture dekhein, to USD/JPY ka downtrend likely lagta hai, kyunki pair ne apna uptrend break kar diya hai. Agar yeh trend reverse nahi hota, to ek badi correction ka moqa ho sakta hai jo pair ko 140.50 level ya usse neeche le ja sakti hai. Technically, pair apne current levels par stabilize ho sakta hai is se pehle ke wo dobara upar ki taraf move kare, magar US dollar ke liye ek market-wide correction bhi expected hai.

**US Dollar Outlook:**

US dollar ek 3-4% correction ke liye ready lagta hai, jo near future mein potential growth ka ishara kar sakta hai, halanke downtrend ka silsila likely rehta hai. Agar pair 140.50 ke qareeb break hota hai, to ek nai low banane ka imkaan hai aur ek strong support level establish ho sakta hai. Market participants University of Michigan ke inflation forecast ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo future movements ka taayun karega. Traders ko apni strategies evolving market conditions ke mutabiq adjust karni hongi, kyunki in tabdeelion ko samajhna zaroori hai taa ke opportunities ko capitalize ya risks ko minimize kiya ja sake.

**USD/JPY Price Action Forecast**
Hum is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ki current price assessment ka jaiza le rahe hain. Main bhi expect karta hoon ke USD/JPY upar ki taraf move karega, kyunki ye 141.51 ke support level se rebound kar chuka hai. Yeh clear hai ke pair kuch arse se rise kar raha hai, lekin 148.04 ek ahem resistance hai jo further progress ko rok raha hai. Agar price is level ko break karti hai, to hum dekh sakte hain ke USD/JPY 148.72 tak barh jaye, aur 147.40 stop-loss level ho sakta hai. Is scenario mein, 149.33 ka target reasonable lagta hai, jiske baad pair reverse kar ke 146.2 tak drop ho sakta hai. Ye correction ek moqa de sakti hai long positions enter karne ka, aur technical indicators bhi is move ko support karte hain.

**Market Factors:**

Manufacturing PMI 50-point mark ke neeche raha, jo activity mein contraction ko zahir karta hai, jisse yen gir gaya, aur kal ke bullish dollar market ka silsila jari raha. Magar, yaad rakhne ki baat hai ke hum ek bearish trend mein hain, aur jitna pair upar jaye, utne zyada chances hain ke bade sellers market mein wapas aayein. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada reliance karunga Scenarios #1 aur #2 implement karne par.

**Buy Signal:**

**Scenario #1:** Aaj main plan kar raha hoon ke USD/JPY ko buy karoon jab entry point 144.52 (chart par green line) ke qareeb aaye, jahan target level 145.38 (chart par thicker green line) ho sakta hai. 145.38 level par main buy positions exit karunga aur opposite direction mein sell positions open karunga (30-35 pips ka movement expect karta hoon opposite direction mein is level se). Aaj ke liye pair ki growth sirf ek correction ke framework mein ho sakti hai. Zaroori baat! Buy karne se pehle ensure karna ke MACD indicator zero mark se upar ho aur rise karna shuru kare.

**Scenario #2:** Main aaj USD/JPY ko tab bhi buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 144.16 price level ke do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein upwards reversal ko lead karega. Opposite levels tak growth expect ki ja sakti hai, jo ke 144.52 aur 145.38 hain.

Chinese markets ke pichlay do sessions mein bari girawat ne commodity dollar par dabao barqarar rakha, jabkay European majors jaise EUR/USD aur GBP/USD par iska ziada asar nahi pada. DAX ne bhi Tuesday ko US markets ka peechha kiya. Aaj ke US economic calendar mein koi khaas update nahi hai, is liye dollar ka largely holding pattern mein rehne ka imkaan hai, lekin hawkish bias kay sath, jo ke Middle East mein jari tensions aur US rate expectations ke hawkish shift ki wajah se hai, jo ke Friday ke dovish report ke baad samnay aayi thi.
Agle chand dino mein, aisi koi badi wajah nazar nahi aa rahi jo US dollar ko ek significant selloff ki taraf le jaye, siwaye Middle East mein tensions ke kam honay ke. Markets ab tak 50bp Fed cut ke idea ko chhor chukay hain, aur iss haftay ke US inflation data se ye tasur nahi hai ke yeh koi bari tabdeeli layega. Eurozone mein, jabkay German industrial data ne 2.9% ka surprise month-on-month rise dikhaya Tuesday ko, ECB ke liye ye baat highly unlikely hai ke wo aglay haftay 25 basis point rate cut ko roke. Is wajah se, EUR/USD ka rasta abhi bhi thoda downside ki taraf hai.
Kya US dollar apne gains ko barhawa de sakta hai? Jab US dollar ne pichlay haftay Powell ke hawkish remarks aur relatively strong non-farm payrolls news ke baad rally ki thi, to doosray major central banks jaise ECB, BoE, aur BoJ se dovish signals nazar aaye thay. Chinese markets ke week ke aghaz mein bhi kamzori ki wajah se dollar commodities aur EM FX ke muqablay mein support rehta hai.
Ab markets fully Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke 50bp cut ke mukhalifat ke sath aligned hain, aur ab November aur December mein 25bp cuts ko price in kar rahe hain. Agle chand dino mein volatility ki umeed ki ja sakti hai, lekin October ke aakhir tak koi bara move EUR/USD mein expect nahi kiya ja raha, jab tak ke ECB aglay haftay koi surprise nahi deta. Sari tawajjo US CPI par is haftay rahegi. US mein is haftay ka key data Thursday ko hoga jab latest CPI estimate samnay aayega. PPI inflation ka measure Friday ko publish hoga. In inflation numbers ko mila kar, yeh expected nahi hai ke yeh Fed ke stance ya dollar ki strength mein koi badi tabdeeli layenge, siwaye kisi bari surprise ke. Core CPI ka estimation hai ke September mein month-on-month 0.2% ho jaye ga, jo ke August ke 0.3% increase se kam hai.

Daily chart ke mutabiq, price ek inverted triangle ke andar chal rahi hai. Is haftay ke dauran, yeh pair decline kar raha hai, magar abhi tak inverted triangle ki lower boundary ko nahi chua hai. Mera andaza hai ke Monday se, pair apni downward movement jari rakhegi aur shayad triangle ki lower boundary tak pohanch jaaye, jo ke qareeb 1.0924 level hai. Yeh ek ahem technical point hoga, kyun ke is level par pohanchne ke baad, main ek potential reversal ki umeed karta hoon. Yeh reversal price ko upper boundary tak le ja sakta hai, jo 1.1225 ke qareeb hai.
Is waqt tak, price ne jo bearish movement dikhayi hai, wo significant hai, magar kuch technical levels hain jo bears ko mushkilat mein dal sakte hain. Pehle yeh samjha ja raha tha ke price apne direction ko qaim rakhay gi, magar jab price support zone ke qareeb aa jaye gi, to bears ko apni strategy dobara sochnay ki zaroorat hogi. Triangle ki structure aur price action dono hi yeh darsha rahe hain ke yeh ek ahem waqt hai, kyun ke price ke is zone tak aa jany se technical levels aur market behavior par asar ho sakta hai.

Inverted triangle ka analysis yeh batata hai ke jab price lower boundary, yani 1.0924 ke qareeb pohanchay gi, to market mein ek reversal ka imkaan barh jaayega. Aisa hone par price wapas upar ki taraf jaye gi aur inverted triangle ki upper boundary, yani 1.1225 ke level tak ja sakti hai. Yeh ek ahem resistance point hoga, aur agar price is level ko break karti hai, to bulls ko ek mazid faida mil sakta hai.

Is dauran, bears ko support zone se agay girawat lany mein mushkilat ka samna ho sakta hai. Market ki halat aur daily volatility ko madde nazar rakhte huye, yeh lagta hai ke aglay chand dinon mein market mein kaafi activity dekhne ko milay gi. Ek taraf, price ko neeche girane ki koshish hogi, jab ke doosri taraf bulls ko price ko wapas upar lay janay ka ek mauka mil sakta hai. Magar, price ka structure aur technical levels ke asar se, humay ye dekhna hoga ke kya price aagay chal kar apna bearish pattern tor payegi ya phir market mein ek powerful reversal

USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew EUR/USD tab tak purani halat mein nahi rahe ga jab tak Fed ka faisla nahi aata. Aap shayad European Central Bank (ECB) ke meeting ka bhi zikar kar rahe hain, jo Thursday ko hai, jo is maamle mein ahmiyat rakhti hai. Maine forecast calendar ko dekha aur mujhe dekhar hairani hui ke 0.6 basis points ka rate reduction plan kiya gaya hai, jo rate ko 4.25% se 3.64% tak le aayega

Euro (EUR) apni defensive position ko US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein barqarar rakh raha hai, aur Friday ki subha European trading ke dauran yeh 1.0935 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Jab Thursday ko U.S. ka inflation data aaya, jo ke expectations se zyada tha, to isne dollar ko kuch support diya, jo ke EUR/USD pair ki upside ko limit kar raha hai. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein rehlaai aur September ka stronger-than-expected employment report Federal Reserve ke future mein interest rates cut karne ke imkanaat ko barha raha hai. CPI ke release ke baad, investors ne November mein 25 basis point Fed rate cut ki umeed 83.3% tak barha di hai, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq. Market participants ab U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) ke September ke liye aur Michigan Consumer Confidence Index ke October ke liye pehli reading ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo Friday ko release honay walay hain. Overall PPI ko umeed hai ke yeh 1.6% year-on-year barhay ga, jab ke core PPI ke 2.7% year-on-year barhne ki projection hai. Magar agar yeh report kamzor natayej dikhata hai, to isse dollar euro ke muqable mein kamzor ho sakta hai.Dusri taraf, European Central Bank (ECB) ke policymakers economy ke slowdown ke douran interest rates cut karne ke haq mein hain, jo euro par kuch selling pressure la sakta hai. ECB ke is saal do dafa interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai, aur agle hafte yeh apna deposit rate 3.5% tak neeche kar sakta hai. Reuters ke survey ke mutabiq, 90% economists agle hafte rate cut ki umeed kar rahe hain, jab ke December mein ek aur follow-up cut ka imkaan hai. EUR/USD ne pichle hafte ka 14-mahina high 1.1213 se retreat kiya hai, jo ke short-term bullish bias ko khatam kar raha hai. Magar, yeh abhi tak 20-day simple moving average (SMA) ke qareeb hold kar raha hai jo ke 1.1108 par hai. Momentum indicators near-term neutral scenario ko confirm karte hain, jab ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke upar barqarar hai, aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) apni red signal line ke neeche aa gaya hai lekin positive territory mein abhi tak mazboot hai.20-day moving average sabse qareebi support hai, lekin agar isay break kar diya gaya to focus downside ki taraf ho sakta hai, khaaskar uptrend line ke upar. 50-day moving average par thora sa dip 1.1036 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh barriers breach hote hain, to yeh 1.1000 level ko expose karein ge, jo ke September se sabse lowest level hai, aur envisioned double top jo 1.1200 ke qareeb hai.
Yeh southern rollbacks dikhate hain, magar yeh bhi boomerang ke neeche jaari reh sakte hain baghair kisi serious rollbacks ke; yahan zyada door nahi bacha, aur phir hum dekh sakte hain ke agay kidhar jaana hai. Boomerangs aksar border zones ki tarah kaam karte hain, jaise ke yeh badi continuation ki taraf break kar sakte hain, aur boomerang se rebound ke baad, zyada imkanaat ke sath, reversal ki taraf jaaye ga. Bara timeframes par, mein ab bhi intezar kar raha hoon ke highs of 23 ko surpass karain aur ooper ka movement dekhain, magar yeh weekly timeframe par hoga; yeh jaldi ki kahani nahi hogi.

sales waqai mein kaafi accounts par thi, aur kuch partially implement hui hain, aur kuch, jaise ke aap dekh sakte hain, main ne chhod di hain aur 1.09 ke breakthrough ka intezar kar raha hoon. Is ke ilawa, hamare paas bearish deuces hain, jo ke apne algorithm ka kuch hissa pura kar chuki hain, lekin mukhya target kam se kam 1.0870 hai. Is waqt hum ek jump dekh rahe hain jo ke pichle low se hai, jo 1.0899 par hai, aur ye 50 points se zyada organize hua hai. Ye ek baar phir hamen ye samjhata hai ke hamen laalchi nahi hona chahiye, profit ko waqt par fix karna zaroori hai.
Chaliye dekhte hain ke agle events kaise develop hote hain. Agar Friday ko 15:30 par dollar ke pressure ke saath ek aur foundation play hota hai against the European currency, to hum in mentioned goals ko implement kar sakte hain. Aur agar aisa nahi hota, to main agle hafte implementation ki umeed karta hoon. Yahan par bhi ek powerful fall ko bina kisi correction ke dekhna hoga, aur yahan screen par ye clearly visible hai ke price filhal 300 points se zyada gir chuki hai, aur unloading sirf "right move" se hui hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jaari rehne ka chance hai, khaaskar yeh dekhte hue ke H4 timeframe par moving average 1.0994 par hai, aur shayad hum wahan ki taraf ja rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, daily chart dikhata hai ke ek strong resistance level break ho raha hai, jo bullish trend ki taqat ko confirm karta hai. Is liye, main bullish rehna chahta hoon, to movement ko continue karne ke liye 1.0951 ka breakthrough zaroori hai. Us ke baad, EUR/USD par bears ka attack shayad jaari rahe aur tez ho, aur mujhe lagta hai ke ye long-term positions ko 1.0994 tak pohanchne se nahi rok sakte. Filhal, EUR/USD ki sideways move karne ki tendency hai, jo behtar activity se badal jayegi. Lekin, mustaqbil ki movement ka direction abhi tak unknown hai.

USD currency pair ki price behavior analysis par ek dilchasp guftagu kar rahe hain. August 27 ke peak ke qareeb resistance area ka ek "false" breakout dekha gaya. Aise false breakouts aksar ulte rukh ki taraf, shayad neeche ki taraf, movement ka sabab bante hain, jo agle sessions mein dekhne ko mil sakta hai. False breakout tab hota hai jab bade market players aur sellers ke paas counter-liquidity nahi hoti jo consequential orders ko support kar sake. Jab zone se breakout hota hai, to wahan rakhi gayi orders—mainly buy-stop aur market-buy orders—trigger hoti hain. Isliye, jab aap "false" breakout dekhte hain, to reversal ki umeed rakhna behtar hai. Agar aaj ka low toota, to 1.1096 level ki taraf rasta khulega aur phir EMA 200 par 1.1066 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Lekin yeh is baat par depend karta hai ke aaj ka low kitna mumkin hai. Pair EMA 50 se rebound karne ki koshish kar raha hai aur is moving average ke upar trading resume karne ki koshish kar raha hai. EUR/USD ke chart ko dekhte hue, aaj ek bullish scenario ubhar raha hai. Maujooda price 1.1113 hai, aur bullish momentum taqat pakar raha hai jab kharidaar market mein apni dominance dikhate hain. Bulls apni taqat mein izafa kar rahe hain, jo ek strong upward trend ka ishara hai. Yeh surge yeh darshata hai ke aane wale ghante EUR/USD pair ke liye pivotal ho sakte hain.
Agar bullish trend jari rahta hai, to yeh kaafi mumkin hai ke price jald hi 1.1145 resistance level ko test kare. Yeh level ek crucial threshold hai jo agar tooti, to bullish outlook ko aur validate kar sakta hai aur potential gains ka darwaza khol sakta hai.
Is scenario mein, investors ko un technical pehluon ka khayal rakhna chahiye jo market movement ko influence karte hain. Technical tools jaise moving averages, trend lines, aur momentum indicators istemal karna valuable insights de sakta hai aur informed trading decisions mein madadgar ho sakta hai. Yeh tools key support aur resistance levels ko identify karne, current trend ki taqat ko assess karne, aur potential reversals ya continuations ko anticipate karne mein madad karte hain. Apne account ka sahi management karna bohot zaroori hai, khaaskar volatile environment mein jahan price movements rapid aur significant ho sakte hain

Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi. In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.
### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.
Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai

/USD 1.0935 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, aur jo current trend hai, wo bearish side ki taraf jhuk raha hai. Yeh pair halya dino mein dabao ka shikar hai, jisme dheema magar musalsal girawat dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Aane wale dino mein kuch aise factors bhi hain jo ke isme significant movement la sakte hain. Is downtrend ka ek bara sabab US dollar ki relative strength hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ki wajah se mazid mazboot hui hai. Central bank ka focus inflation ko control karne par hai, jiske liye wo faiz ki daron ko barhane ki policy par amal kar raha hai. Is wajah se greenback (US dollar) investors ke liye zyada attractive bana hai, aur euro jaisi currencies ko dollar ke muqable mein struggle karna pad raha hai. Halya US economic data, jaise ke mazboot employment numbers aur stable consumer spending, ne dollar ki rise ko aur bhi momentum diya hai. Doosri taraf, Eurozone ko abhi bhi kai economic challenges ka samna hai. Is region mein growth prospects ab tak thanda nazar aa raha hai, jo ke high energy costs aur inflationary pressures ke asraat hain. Halanki Eurozone mein inflation ke hawale se kuch behtari dekhne ko mili hai, lekin yeh ab bhi policymakers ke liye ek concern bana hua hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne apne approach mein ehtiyaat se kaam liya hai, aur unhone signal diya hai ke wo rate hikes ko dheema karne ya rokne ka soch rahe hain, jab tak inflation downward trend mein rahega. Yeh ehtiyaati stance Federal Reserve ke aggressive rawaiye ke mukablay mein euro par aur dabao daal raha hai. Technically, EUR/USD iss waqt ek critical support level 1.0930 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh support qaim rehti hai, toh hum ek temporary bounce dekh sakte hain. Magar agar yeh support break ho jati hai, toh ek bara selloff trigger ho sakta hai, jisse pair agle key support 1.0850 ki taraf push kar sakta hai. Traders is level ko ghore se dekh rahe hain, kyun ke agar yeh break hota hai, toh aagay aur girawat ke darwaze khul sakte hain. Aane wale dino mein kuch important economic events hain jo EUR/USD ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. US aur Eurozone dono apne ahem economic data, jaise ke inflation reports, manufacturing data, aur central bank ke statements release karne wale hain. Iske ilawa, Europe mein geopolitical developments aur energy market trends euro ke liye key drivers banay rahenge.

Pehle ki bearish trend line ko bulls ne paar kar diya hai, jo buying volume ke barhne ki nishani hai. Lekin agar price 142.901 tak girta hai, to bearish trend ki sambhavna bhi hai. 30-minute chart dikhata hai ke oscillator oversold conditions par hai, aur histogram mein uptrend shuru ho raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke price green zone ke through move kar sakta hai aur purani sideways range mein wapas aa sakta hai, jahan support 153.11. 1-hour chart par, aaj ka trading session is baat se shuru hua ke price ne pichle do dinon ke highest level ko tod diya, aur ab do mukhtalif price channels ke andar move kar raha hai. Pehla channel, jo blue rang mein dikhaya gaya hai, pichle do trading dinon ka sideways trend reflect karta hai. Doosra channel, jo red rang mein hai, kal ke trading session ke dauran dekhay gayi upward trend ko represent karta hai. Filhal, price blue channel ke upar break kar gaya hai aur ab wapas aa kar isko retest kar raha hai. Agar price blue channel line ko touch karta hai, to yeh tawaqqo hai ke yeh dobara upward bounce karega, aur apni rise ko resistance level 1.1211 tak continue karega. Agar bearish scenario dekha jaye, to agar price dobara blue channel ke andar aata hai, to yeh aur bhi neeche gir sakta hai, aur weekly pivot level 1.1139 tak pochne ke baad shayad wahan se dobara upar rebound karega. Economic front par, Eurozone mein recent data ne kuch khatarnaak trends ko highlight kiya hai. Business activity September mein unexpected contraction ki taraf gayi, jo services aur manufacturing sectors mein bigharte hue halat ko dikhata hai. S&P Global ke mutabiq, region ka Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) August ke 51.0 se gir kar 48.9 par aa gaya, jo ke pehli dafa February ke baad contraction dikhata hai. Is decline ka zyada asar weak demand aur Germany aur France jaise key economies mein economic challenges ki wajah se tha. 50-point mark ke neeche girna economic activity ki slowdown ko dikhata hai, jo future growth ke liye concerns badha raha hai, aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke potential policy easing par speculation ko barhawa de raha hai. Services PMI bhi sharp fall ka shikar hua, jo August ke 52.9 se September mein gir kar 50.5 ho gaya, jabke manufacturing

Agla andaza hai ke market 1.12151 ke level tak rise karega, jiske baad ek correction ki umeed hai. Yeh correction lower boundary ki taraf hoga, jahan se dobara buying opportunities consider ki ja sakti hain. Agar price is level se neeche break karti hai, toh hum further girawat dekh sakte hain, aur aise mein buying positions cancel kar di jayengi. Market channels ke sath grow karta hai jab wo upar ki taraf dekh raha ho. Sales ki umeed upper channel boundary 1.12151 se hai, jahan entry ka mauqa ho sakta hai. Mere liye zaroori hai ke main pullback par entry karun, jitna ho sake lower boundary ke qareeb. H1 higher timeframe ko analyze karte hue, mujhe dikhai deta hai ke linear regression channel upward slope mein hai. Mere liye yeh M15 se zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai, kyun ke yeh strong bullish sentiment ko dikhata hai. M15 channel se jo signal mila, wo buying ka mashwara deta hai, jo meri buying ki desire ko reinforce karta hai. Bas mujhe sahi level par price ka intizaar karna hai aur wahan se buying opportunity dekhni hai. Jis jagah par mein buying opportunities dekh raha hoon wo current situation mein lower channel boundary 1.10973 par hai. Wahan se, mein dobara buy karne ki koshish karunga taake 1.12036 tak ka target achieve ho. Agar yeh target achieve hota hai, toh yeh strong upward movement ka ishara hoga. 1.12036 se ek correction ki umeed hai, kyun ke bullish movement select ki gayi hai. Bulls dobara apne movement ko restore karne ki koshish karenge. Agar entry point 1.10973 par breach hoti hai neeche ki taraf, toh yeh bearish interest ka sign hai. Aise mein, buying ka trading plan reconsider karna aur market situation ko dobara assess karna zaroori hoga. Eurodollar ka shape ab ek triangle ke jese lagta hai, jisme ek wedge bhi shamil hai. Haan, wahan par jo shandar shadow hai, wo image ko kharab karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai, lekin agar price uss direction mein nahi jata, phir bhi upper trend

Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi. In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.
### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.
Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai

EUR/USD 1.0935 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai aur jo current trend hai, wo bearish side ki taraf jhuk raha hai. Yeh pair halya dino mein dabao ka shikar hai, jisme dheema magar musalsal girawat dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Aane wale dino mein kuch aise factors bhi hain jo ke isme significant movement la sakte hain. Is downtrend ka ek bara sabab US dollar ki relative strength hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ki wajah se mazid mazboot hui hai. Central bank ka focus inflation ko control karne par hai, jiske liye wo faiz ki daron ko barhane ki policy par amal kar raha hai. Is wajah se greenback (US dollar) investors ke liye zyada attractive bana hai, aur euro jaisi currencies ko dollar ke muqable mein struggle karna pad raha hai. Halya US economic data, jaise ke mazboot employment numbers aur stable consumer spending, ne dollar ki rise ko aur bhi momentum diya hai. Doosri taraf, Eurozone ko abhi bhi kai economic challenges ka samna hai. Is region mein growth prospects ab tak thanda nazar aa raha hai, jo ke high energy costs aur inflationary pressures ke asraat hain. Halanki Eurozone mein inflation ke hawale se kuch behtari dekhne ko mili hai, lekin yeh ab bhi policymakers ke liye ek concern bana hua hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne apne approach mein ehtiyaat se kaam liya hai, aur unhone signal diya hai ke wo rate hikes ko dheema karne ya rokne ka soch rahe hain, jab tak inflation downward trend mein rahega. Yeh ehtiyaati stance Federal Reserve ke aggressive rawaiye ke mukablay mein euro par aur dabao daal raha hai. Technically, EUR/USD iss waqt ek critical support level 1.0930 ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh support qaim rehti hai, toh hum ek temporary bounce dekh sakte hain. Magar agar yeh support break ho jati hai, toh ek bara selloff trigger ho sakta hai, jisse pair agle key support 1.0850 ki taraf push kar sakta hai. Traders is level ko ghore se dekh rahe hain, kyun ke agar yeh break hota hai, toh aagay aur girawat ke darwaze khul sakte hain. Aane wale dino mein kuch important economic events hain jo EUR/USD ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. US aur Eurozone dono apne ahem economic data, jaise ke inflation reports, manufacturing data, aur central bank ke statements release karne wale hain. Iske ilawa, Europe mein geopolitical developments aur energy market trends euro ke liye key drivers banay rahenge.

US dollar index Euro ki qeemat ke muqable mein 102.70 points tak gir gaya, jo ke 1.10159 points ke qareeb tha. Aaj ke trading din mein, Euro ne maximum 1.10169 points tak pohoncha, jab ke minimum 1.0992 points tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke qareebi rate cut ka rasta kholti hai aur yeh expectations barha sakti hai ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts shuru karega. news ab bhi ek ahem factor hai jo ke Euro ki trajectory ko affect kar sakta hai. Consensus yeh expect kar raha hai ke US ka CPI 0.2% se barhay ga, aur market ka reaction is baat par depend karega ke asal numbers is forecast se kitne match ya deviated hote hain.

Agar CPI expected se zyada garam aata hai aur Euro ko 1.0980 ke neeche gira deta hai, toh phir se 1.09 level tak girawat ka imkaan hai. Magar agar data expectations ke mutabiq hota hai, toh hum Euro ko mazeed barhte hue dekh sakte hain, jaisay ke recent
Pair is waqt har hafta flat trade kar raha hai, weekly highs set karne ke baad magar unhe hold karne mein nakam. Key support area ko test kiya gaya, aur mazid strong pressure ke bawajood, is ne apni integrity barqarar rakhi, jo ke prices ko range mein rakhta hai, aur yeh upside vector ki ahmiyat ko zahir karta hai. Aagey barhnay ke liye, 1.0926 level ke upar strong consolidation ki zaroorat hai, jahan main support area border karta hai. Agar is area ka kamiyab retest hota hai aur subsequent rebound hota hai, to nayi move higher ki taraf ho sakti hai, target area 1.1033 aur 1.1121 ke darmiyan ho sakta haitrading hafta, Euro ne 1.0926 ka mark break kiya magar mazeed aage barhne mein nakam raha aur apne tamam gains kho diye, support area mein mazid strong hotay hue. Is tarah se expected development scenario poora nahi ho saka kyun ke target territory tak nahi pohonch saka aur abhi bhi kaam kar raha hai. Is darmiyan, price chart super trendy green zone mein rehta hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain. In data ne market mein optimism ko barhaya, jis se US stocks mein izafa hua. US dollar index Euro ki qeemat ke muqable mein 102.70 points tak gir gaya, jo ke 1.10159 points ke qareeb tha. Aaj ke trading din mein, Euro ne maximum 1.10169 points tak pohoncha, jab ke minimum 1.0992 points tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke qareebi rate cut ka rasta kholti hai aur yeh expectations barha sakti hai ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts shuru karega