یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

EUR/USD

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par dekhain to bears apni positions mazbooti se barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke filhaal wapas janay ka koi iraada nahi. Price 1.1068 par 25% support ko break kar chuki hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai. Mera khayal hai ke bears is level ko target karenge. Main yeh bhi maan raha hoon ke ek temporary upward correction ho sakta hai. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell ka ishara de rahe hain, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke consolidation ke baad ek bearish move ho sakta hai. Indicators yeh batate hain ke exchange rate ghat kar 1.0999 tak ja sakta hai recent breakdown ke baad. Koi significant tabdeeli nazar nahi aa rahi; euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo ek choti red body wali candle se zahir hai.
Wednesday ko EUR/USD pair mein kaafi calm trading thi, halanke U.S. inflation report ko "super-important" samjha ja raha tha. Humne weekend par is report ko "event of the week" kaha tha, magar kuch traders ka reaction hairan kun tha. Mukhtasir mein, dollar bara halanke inflation 2.5% tak gir gayi thi. Pehle har dafa U.S. inflation ke reports se dollar girta tha, chahe report forecast ke baraks hoti ya na hoti, bas inflation girne se dollar bhi girta. Magar kal ek naya waqia dekhne ko mila jo shayad dollar ke do saal ke decline ka end ho sakta hai. Market ne U.S. currency ko kharidna shuru kar diya, halanke inflation 2.5% par aa gayi thi. Pehle se hum yeh keh rahe the ke jab inflation target level ke qareeb aaegi, to Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ko loosen karne ka soch sakta hai. Yeh August ke end mein hua, magar ab paradox yeh hai ke market pichle do saalon se Fed ke rate cuts ko price kar rahi thi. Shayad market ne is factor ko fully price kar liya hai, aur ab inflation ke target ke qareeb honay ke bawajood, Fed ke reasons honge ke woh rates ko ek dafa nahi, balki poori policy easing cycle shuru kar sake. Magar market ne is baat ko pehle hi price kar liya hai.

ستمبر 19 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

لہٰذا، فیڈرل ریزرو کے ایف. او. ایم. سی. نے کل شرح کو 0.50% کم کر دیا، جو کہ ہماری 0.25% کی توقع کے برعکس اور امریکہ کی سرکردہ مشاورتی ایجنسیوں کی پیشین گوئیوں کے خلاف ہے۔ اس سے دو نتائج اخذ کیے جا سکتے ہیں: پہلا، فیڈ مارکیٹوں کے ساتھ کھیل رہا ہے، اور دوسرا، فیڈ کو حقیقی طور پر لیبر مارکیٹ سے کوئی سروکار نہیں ہے یا اس کے برعکس، افراط زر میں مسلسل کمی پر یقین ہے، بلکہ وہ حد سے زیادہ کے بارے میں گہری فکر مند ہے۔ قومی قرض کی خدمت کی لاگت - $1 ٹریلین سالانہ۔ پیر کے روز، ایک اور بھی اجنبی واقعہ اس وقت پیش آیا جب سینیٹرز کے ایک گروپ نے فیڈ سے شرح 0.75 فیصد کم کرنے کا مطالبہ کیا۔

بیرونی نقطہ نظر سے، فیڈ کے اقدامات جذباتی لگتے ہیں اور اچھی طرح سے حساب نہیں کیے گئے، جو 2020/22 میں مرکزی بینک کے رویے کو بالکل دہراتے ہیں جب وہ افراط زر کے اضافے سے "سو گیا"۔ اب، فیڈ نے سال کے آخر تک شرح میں مزید 0.62 فیصد کمی کے لیے اپنی پیشن گوئی جاری کی ہے، جس کا مطلب ہے کہ کم از کم دو کٹوتیاں 0.25٪، یا ایک کٹ 0.25٪ اور دوسری 0.50٪۔ ایک 0.50% کٹ کا آپشن بھی ہے۔ سال کے آخر تک مارکیٹس مزید 0.75 فیصد کٹوتی میں قیمتوں کا تعین کر رہی ہیں۔

ایک دلچسپ نکتہ: پریس کانفرنس کے دوران، فیڈ چیئر جیروم پاول نے کہا کہ شرح میں 0.5 فیصد کمی "ہمارے پیچھے نہ پڑنے کا عہد" ہے۔

لیکن یورو میں اضافہ نہیں ہوا۔ یہ واضح ہے کہ جولائی کے اوائل سے سنگل کرنسی کی قیاس آرائی پر مبنی خریداری نے پہلے ہی اپنا کام کر دیا ہے - مارکیٹ نے پہلے ہی اس دوہرے ریٹ میں کٹوتی کا عنصر کیا تھا۔

ایک اور، ممکنہ طور پر زیادہ اہم، یورو کی کمی کی وجہ خطرے سے بڑے پیمانے پر سرمایہ کاروں کی پرواز ہے۔ ایس. اینڈ. پی. 500 انڈیکس میں کل 0.29% کی کمی ہوئی، حالانکہ اس نے پہلے 5,689.80 کی بلند ترین سطح قائم کی تھی۔ تیل 0.83 فیصد اور سونا 0.32 فیصد گر گیا۔ ہم نے متعدد بار ذکر کیا ہے کہ مالیاتی بحران کے لیے مثالی محرک یورو اور اسٹاک مارکیٹ دونوں کا ہم آہنگ الٹ جانا ہوگا۔ کل بالکل وہی لمحہ ہو سکتا ہے۔



تکنیکی طور پر، یورو نے 1.1076-1.1186 کی حد میں کام کر کے اپنے ارادوں کو مکمل طور پر پورا کیا ہے۔ اب، اسے 1.1010 پر سپورٹ لیول کے ساتھ جنگ کا سامنا ہے، جہاں ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کھینچی جا رہی ہے۔ یومیہ ٹائم فریم پر مارلن آسیلیٹر منفی علاقے میں چلا گیا ہے، اوپر کی طرف جھوٹے بریک آؤٹ کی تصدیق کرتا ہے۔ ایک غلط سگنل مخالف سمت میں الٹ جانے کے لیے ایک مؤثر سگنل ہے۔ بالآخر، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ یورو 1.0882-1.0905 کی حد تک پہنچ جائے گا۔

آج صبح، چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن نیچے کے رجحان والے علاقے میں چلا گیا۔ اعلی ٹائم فریم کے ساتھ ہم وقت ساز پیٹرن اپنے اثر کو مضبوط کرتا ہے، نیچے کی طرف ویکٹر کو تقویت دیتا ہے۔ 1.1075 پر سپورٹ کو توڑنے کے بعد، قیمت 1.1055 کے نشان کے ارد گرد ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کا سامنا کرے گی۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Hamari Aaj ki discussion ka taluq EUR/USD pair se hai, jahan agar hum din bhar ke halat par tawajjo dein to yeh wazeh hai ke is pair ke paas mazeed upar janay ka mouqa ab bhi hai. Agar hum ab H1 timeframe par dekhein, to yeh clearly nazar aa raha hai ke ab ka current price EMA50 ko penetrate karne ki koshish kar raha hai, aur filhal price is important area ke upar bhi hai, halan ke abhi tak isay poori tarah se cross nahi kiya. Agar price EMA50 se upar hai, to kam az kam buyers ko yeh bhi yaad rakhna chahiye ke ek reversal ka imkaan ab bhi ho sakta hai, kyun ke H1 oscillator pehle overbought state mein chala gaya tha, aur ab bhi yeh mumkin hai ke price wapas neeche gir jaye jaise pehle ho chuka hai.
Daily timeframe mein Bollinger Bands indicator ka istemal kar ke dekha jaye to yeh samajh mein aata hai ke price ek dafa phir buyers ke control mein aa gaya hai, aur buyers ne price ko Middle Bollinger Bands area ke upar wapas la diya hai, jahan bullish candlestick ka formation ho raha hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke market ab bhi buyers ko support kar raha hai ke wo price ko mazeed bullish taraf le kar ja sakein. Agla target sellers ki supply resistance area ki taraf hoga, jo ab tak sellers ne barqarar rakha hai. Agar baad mein buyer resistance area ko successfully breakout kar le, to EUR/USD pair ka price mazeed ooncha bullish ho sakta hai.

Yeh pair 1.10 tak gir sakta hai, aur agar yeh level barqarar rahe, to yeh girawat 1.0961 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Yeh girawat recent gains ko khatam kar sakti hai jo ke Fed rate expectations ki wajah se aaye the. Halan ke ECB bhi rate cut karne wala hai, magar yeh girawat utni tez nahi hui jitni Fed ke movements se hui thi. Aik potential upturn ka daramdar kal ka U.S. job vacancies report par hai; pehla number 8.18 million tha, aur agar yeh 8 million ya is se kam ho jata hai to yeh aik ahm baat hogi. Bullish outlook ke liye, EUR/USD ko 1.1071 ke din ke peak ko break karna hoga. Is recovery ke baad yeh pair 1.11 ya us se zyada ja sakta hai.

Main is pair ko closely monitor kar raha hoon kyun ke yeh ek possible bottom ke qareeb hai. 1.0951 ka support strong hai, us ke baad 1.0931 ka level hai. 1.10 level bhi significant hai, magar 1.0987 ki ahmiyat abhi clear nahi hai. Price bullish weakness dikhata hai aur intraday local bearish trend ko follow kar raha hai.

EUR/USD market ka situation dekha aur H4 timeframe par chart ka analysis kiya, jo mujhe kaafi interesting laga. Kal raat ke market trend ko dekh kar laga ke ek bar phir se increase ka mauka nazar aane laga hai. Ek reversal signal dekha gaya, jahan aakhri kuch dinon se market mein price movement sellers ke control mein thi jo niche move karne ki koshish kar rahe the. Lekin chart par dekha gaya ke bearish attempt 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar paayi, jo is haftay ke liye support ke roop mein kaam aa sakta hai. Iska matlab hai agar seller support area ko penetrate nahi kar pata, to trend upar move karne ki sambhavana hai. Isliye, main ek mature trading plan banane ki soch raha hoon taake estimate kiya ja sake ke price kab upar move karna shuru hogi aur agla destination kahan hoga H4 timeframe ke situation ke hisaab se. Main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi le raha hoon. H4 timeframe ke chart par EUR/USD ki price movement ek reversal signal dikhati hai pichle bearish correction candlestick shape se. Daily timeframe par bhi dekha gaya, jahan pichle haftay ki trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue nahi kar paaye, kyunki seller pressure ke entry ne market ko niche move karne ka sabab bana.

Is haftay ka bearish attempt abhi bhi chal raha hai, lekin last Thursday ko achi buying interest dekhi gayi, jo candlestick position ko increase karne mein madadgar sabit hui aur market ko bullish rally ki taraf rasta khol diya, jo August ke end mein dekha gaya trend ke jaisa hai. Phir additional analysis ke liye stochastics ka istemal kiya, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohnch gayi hai, jo market ke phir se increase hone ka indication hai. Buyers ko EUR/USD prices mein aaj bhi momentum mil sakta hai increase continue karne ke liye

EURUSD market ki situation dekhi aur H4 time frame ke chart ko use karke analysis ki koshish ki. Yeh kaafi dilchaspi ka sabab tha kyun ke maine dekha ke raat ke market trend mein izafa hone ka mauqa phir se nazar aa raha hai. Yeh ek reversal signal hai jahan guzishta kuch dino mein market mein price movement asal mein sellers ke qabze mein thi jo ke neeche le jane ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart par dekha ja sakta hai ke bearish koshish abhi bhi 1.1004 level se breakout karne mein nakaam rahi hai, jo is haftay support ke taur par istemal ho sakti hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar seller support area ko naheen tod pate, toh trend mein izafa hota rehne ke imkaanat hain Isliye, main ek puri trading plan banaonga taake yeh andaza laga sakuun ke kab price upar ki taraf harakat karna shuru karegi aur agla maqsad kya hoga H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Iske ilaawa, main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundary line ki madad bhi istemal kar raha hoon. H4 time frame ke chart par EURUSD ki price movement ne pehle ke bearish correction candlestick ki shape se reversal signal dikhaya hai. Hum daily timeframe mein monitor kar sakte hain ke guzishta hafte ke trading session mein buyers bullish trend ko continue na kar sake kyun ke sellers ke pressure ke waja se market correction ke liye neeche ki taraf chal gayi Is haftay ki bearish koshish asal mein abhi bhi jari Hai, lekin guzishta Thursday ko achi buying interest ne candlestick ki position ko behtar banaya aur market ke liye bullish rally ka rasta khola, bilkul us trend ki tarah jo August ke aakhir mein tha. Phir stochastics ke saath mazeed analysis se yeh maloom hota hai ke signal line 80 zone tak barh gayi hai, jo market ke phir se izafa hone ke imkaanaat ka vasaar deta hai. Buyers ke paas aaj bhi EURUSD ki prices ko barhane ke liye momentum mil sakta hai Maujooda market movement abhi bhi 1.1078 ke aas paas static hai. Main khud aaj dopahar se mazeed izafa ke signal ka intezaar kar raha hoon kyun ke abhi tak market transactions mein koi volatility nahi hui hai. Guzishta mahine se benchmark ke mutabiq, wahan par ek zafa izafa nazar aa raha hai jo neeche ki taraf corrections ke saath mix hai. Chahe market zyada bullish hi kyon na ho, main intezaar karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko breakout kar ke buy signal ko valid na bana le. Aaj ke market movement ka imkaan beech mein hi rahega kyun ke is Friday USD par koi high impact news nahi hai

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
Pichlay trading week mein euro mein further downfall dekhne ko mili, aur price reversal levels ke kareeb thi, lekin week ke end par price ne dobara rise karna shuru kiya. Pehlay price 1.1033 ke neeche gir gayi thi jo ek reversal ko indicate karti thi, lekin phir sharp recovery hui aur price 1.1121 ke level tak wapas aayi. Is tarah se expected sustainable development scenario achieve nahi ho saka, lekin target territory abhi bhi active hai. Price chart ab ek trend area se doosray trend area mein move kar raha hai, jo trend uncertainty ko highlight karta hai.

Aaj ka technical analysis agar dekha jaye, toh 4-hour chart se yeh maloom hota hai ke pair psychological resistance barrier 1.1100 ke neeche settle ho gaya hai, aur 50-day simple moving average ke kareeb aa kar additional strength le raha hai. Dosri taraf, 14-day momentum indicator abhi bhi positive signals de raha hai, jo short term mein ek uptrend ko support kar raha hai. Price ab 1.1100 ke psychological resistance barrier ke upar stabilize ho chuki hai, jo short-term mein pair ko targets 1.1130 se shuru karti hai aur 1.1165 tak le jaa sakti hai. Agar pair 1.1040 ke neeche roll back karti hai, toh price correction ke saath 1.0990 aur 1.0950 tak gir sakti hai. Chart ko neeche dekha ja sakta hai.



Pair is waqt slightly weekly high ke upar trade kar raha hai. Key support area intense stress mein tha aur lagbhag break ho gaya tha, lekin last moment pe quotes wapas aaye aur current growth vector ko maintain kar liya. Growth ko continue karne ke liye price ko confidently 1.1121 ke upar consolidate karna hoga, jo main support area ka border hai. Agar is area ka successful retest ho jata hai aur rebound milta hai, toh nayi movement ki opportunity milegi with a target between 1.1283 and 1.1373.

Agar price 1.1033 ke pivot level ke neeche girti hai, toh current scenario cancel ho jayega.

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka

EUR/USD ka girna ab ruk sakta hai aaj ke US CPI inflation data aur Thursday ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate faislay se pehle, chahe is ne haal hi mein mushkilat ka samna kiya ho aur Eurozone ke itnay achay data nahi aaye. US dollar CPI report se pehle thora kamzor ho gaya jab polls ne dikhaya ke Harris ne pehle presidential debate mein Trump ko outperform kiya. EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.
Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, khaaskar agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison mein.

ECB ka rate faisla kafi bara hoga. Ab tak, analysts is baat par mutafiq lag rahe hain ke ECB eurozone ki kamzor economy ke jawab mein rate cuts mein taizi nahi karega. June mein 25 basis points cut ke baad, umeed hai ke ECB Thursday ko ek aur aisi cut announce karega.

Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte

EUR/USD

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

EUR/USD ka girna ab ruk sakta hai aaj ke US CPI inflation data aur Thursday ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate faislay se pehle, chahe is ne haal hi mein mushkilat ka samna kiya ho aur Eurozone ke itnay achay data nahi aaye. US dollar CPI report se pehle thora kamzor ho gaya jab polls ne dikhaya ke Harris ne pehle presidential debate mein Trump ko outperform kiya. EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.
Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, khaaskar agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison mein.

ECB ka rate faisla kafi bara hoga. Ab tak, analysts is baat par mutafiq lag rahe hain ke ECB eurozone ki kamzor economy ke jawab mein rate cuts mein taizi nahi karega. June mein 25 basis points cut ke baad, umeed hai ke ECB Thursday ko ek aur aisi cut announce karega.

Currency pair ne Wednesday ko ek rebound ka tajurba kiya, jisme recent selloff se bahal ho gaya aur technical support 1.1006 par mila. Halanke price action ne midweek mein upar ki taraf rujhan dikhaya, lekin pair abhi bhi 1.1150 level ke upar majboor hai. Is hafte, US jobs data market ke shuraka ke liye aham markaz rehne ki umeed hai, jo aane wali harkaton ko mutasir kar sakta hai.
ECB Rate Cut Ki Aas Ka Izafa

European Central Bank (ECB) ke mutaliq soodi shara mein kami ke baray mein atkalat barh gayi hain, khas tor par Eurozone mein girti hui price pressures ke sabab. Haliya reports ke mutabiq Eurozone ki headline inflation August mein 2.2% tak gir gayi, jo zyadatar energy prices mein kami ke wajah se hui. Is surat-e-haal ko mazeed burhata hua, Germany ki economy doosray quarter mein munakisis ho gayi, jo kamzor domestic aur international demand ke natayij mein aane wali mandi ke khadshat ko barhata hai.

U.S. Manufacturing Data Neechay Raha

August ke liye ISM Manufacturingmayusi ka sabab bana, jo 47.2 par raha aur median market forecast 47.5 se chook gaya. Halanke ye adad July ke multi-month low 46.8 se thoda behtar tha, lekin isne sarmayakaroon mein kisi khaas aitmaad ko janam nahi diya. Ye be-rung data un tajiron ke liye ek mauka bana jo pehle se bullish stance chorne ke liye PMI mayusi ka sabab bana, jo 47.2 par raha aur median market forecast 47.5 se chook gaya. Halanke ye adad July ke multi-month low 46.8 se thoda behtar tha, lekin isne sarmayakaroon mein kisi khaas aitmaad ko janam nahi diya. Ye be-rung data un tajiron ke liye ek mauka bana jo pehle se bullish stance chorne ke liye mohtaat the.

Technical Indicators: Bullish Magar Mohtaat

In challenges ke bawajood, EUR/USD pair abhi bhi 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke 1.0867 par hai, ke kaafi upar trade kar raha hai. Jabke ye ek bullish trend ko zahir karta hai, ek steepening bearish pullback ne tashweesh ko barhaya hai. Short sellers lagta hai ke 50-day EMA ke thodi upar ke levels ko target kar rahe hain, jo ke 1.0996 par hai, jo market sentiment mein tabdeeli ka ishara deta hai. Dusri taraf, downside mein, EUR/USD pair 1.1100 ke psychological level par support milne ki umeed hai. Ye had usay mazeed girawat se bachane ka kaam kar sakti hai, jo ke chalte huye economic uncertainties ke darmiyan ek safety net ka kirdar ada karegi.

Euro Bulls ke liye Aham Resistance Levels


Upside par, Euro bulls ke liye foran resistance levels recent high 1.1204 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1274 par mark kiye gaye hain. Ye levels un tajiron ke liye nihayat ahem hain jo upward momentum se faida uthana chahte hain. In points se upar ka qayam ek mazid mazboot bullish trend ka ishara de sakta hai.

EUR/USD: Key Patterns aur Signals
Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price changes ka tajziya karenge. Aaj currency pair mein thoda izafa dekha gaya lekin apne target tak pohanchne se pehle ye reverse ho gaya. Chart dikhata hai ke pair ne resistance ko 1.1141 par test kiya, reverse ho gaya, aur abhi 1.1119 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. RSI indicator apni range ke center ki taraf ja raha hai, neeche ki taraf rujhan dikhata hua, jabke AO sell signal ko zahir kar raha hai. Filhal, price guzishta din ke trading range ke andar hi hai. Halanke signals kamzor hain, lekin wo aane wale waqt mein thodi kami ka ishara dete hain. Magar, aaj Fed ne interest rate kam karne ka plan banaya hai, jo dollar ke kamzor hone ka sabab ban sakta hai jab ye khabar release hogi, aur phir uske baad mazboot ho sakta hai. Kyun ke sab ye move expect kar rahe hain, agar rate wahi raha to ye hairat ka sabab banega. Aise mein, hum dollar mein ek tezi se izafa dekh sakte hain jo foran support level ko tod sakta hai. Is buniyad par, 1.1051 support ki taraf ek harkat mumkin hai. Aaj stop-loss orders ka khayal rakhna bohot zaroori hai.

Jaisa ke hum dekhte hain, instrument trading session ke ikhtitami lamhon mein ek positive outlook ki taraf mudne ki koshish karta hai. Tareekhi tor par, buyers ne Supply Zone ke qareeb 1.114 par break through kiya hai, aur agar bulls Beartargets ke sath buy trades mein entry ka mauka mil sakta hai aur PPD ke buniyad par market mein shamil hon sakte hain. Ye 1.117 ke resistance level se milta hai, jo daily range ke andar hai. Is surat mein stop order offer area ke neeche hoga. Agar bears ne isay tod diya aur apni jagah bana li to hum sale ke liye entry points ko dekh sa Zone ke upar apni position bana sakte hain aur usay barqarar rakhen, to short-term profit targets ke sath buy trades mein entry ka mauka mil sakta hai aur PPD ke buniyad par market mein shamil hon sakte hain. Ye 1.117 ke resistance level se milta hai, jo daily range ke andar hai. Is surat mein stop order offer area ke neeche hoga. Agar bears ne isay tod diya aur apni jagah bana li to hum sale ke liye entry points ko dekh sakte hain, jiska target Buyers' Zone ki taraf 1.108 ka reduction hoga.