Eurusd forum

Yeh lagbhag 1.1110 level ko chhoo gaya tha. Friday ka resistance 1.1095 update karna mere liye important hoga. Asians ne der na lagate hue plane board kar liya. Jaise ke hourly chart par dikhai de raha hai, bulls ne is level ko break kiya, jo ke pehle half ka northward move darshata hai. EURUSD kitna upar jaa sakta hai? Maine itna door tak nahi socha. 1.1122 pichle hafte ka local peak tha. Mujhe nahi lagta ke isse asaani se accept kiya jayega. Maine wahan ek pending sale order bhi place kiya hai. Agar hum Fed ke paas waapas gaye, to mujhe dar nahi hoga. Din ke dauran winds bhi madad kar sakte hain, kyunke yeh rates ko July se upar push kar rahe hain.

Hum Fed ko upar ya neeche adjust kar sakte hain. Kai log already interest rates ke girne ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Sirf ek sawal hai ke kitna girenge: 25 points or 50 points. Zyada tar lagta hai ke yeh 25th ko hoga. US election ke liye preparations currency volatility ko badhane ki sambhavana nahi hai. Yeh mera opinion hai. Iski bajaye, hume inke baad ek certain impulse aur important direction milegi. EUR/USD H-4 Hello sabko! Asian session ke doran, EURUSD currency pair thoda upar chala gaya. Yeh pair phir se last weekend ke highs par aa gaya hai. Volatility abhi bhi low hai. Investors Federal Reserve ke mid-week announcement ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo monetary policy ko ease karne ki umeed hai. Zyada tar log jaante hain ke crucial rate cuts shuru hone wale hain. Aaj ka economic calendar halka hai. China aur Japan dono ki chhutti hai. Secondary data United States aur Europe se ayega. Pehle half of the day mein pair thodi correction dekh sakta hai, lekin overall, filhal ke liye priority upar ki taraf hi hai. Reversal point 1.1045 hai, iske upar main buy karunga targets ke sath 1.1145 aur 1.1195. Agar pair decline karti hai, 1.1045 ke niche break karti hai aur merge karti hai, to yeh 1.1025 aur 1.099 tak ka channel open kar sakti

EUR/USD ka 30-minute chart filhal ek bullish trend dikhata hai, jo ke 1.10000 ke liquidity zone ka retest karne ke baad aaya. Yahan price ne do bottom liquidity (2 Bottom Liq) ko touch kiya aur ek achi reversal start hui. Is reversal ne pair ko 1.11000 ke upar ke key levels reclaim karne mein madad di aur ab price 1.11227 par hai. Fair Value Gap (FVG) jo ke 1.10500 ke upar tha, fill ho chuka hai, jo market ke previous inefficiencies ko theek karta hai aur price ko upar wali liquidity pools ki taraf rally karne ka raasta de raha hai.

Ab agla interest ka area 1.11500 aur 1.12000 ke liquidity zones hain, jahan untested supply (Distribution Liquidity ya DLiq) majood hai. Yeh levels current bullish momentum ko rok sakte hain, lekin agar price ne in levels ko break kiya, toh 1.12000-1.12500 range tak ke further gains ka raasta khul sakta hai, jahan ek bara sell-side liquidity zone majood hai.

Agar downside dekha jaye toh support kaafi strong hai, jahan 1.10500 ka zone immediate cushion provide karta hai, aur uske baad 1.10000 ka psychological level hai. Yeh wo areas hain jahan pe liquidity pehle swept ho chuki hai, aur strong buying pressure dikhayi diya tha. Agar price retrace karti hai, toh yeh support levels buyers ke liye wapas enter karne ke liye effective sabit ho sakte hain, jo ke downward trend ko rok sakta hai.

Lekin yeh bhi yaad rahe ke long-term bulls abhi cautious hain, kyon ke price ek one-year high se late August mein pull back hui thi. Price action ek technical trap mein phansi hui hai, aur bullish momentum thoda weak hai, haalaanke last week ke 1.1000 handle se bounce ke baad bhi. EUR/USD pair ne 1.1000 ke psychological level ko break nahi kiya aur 1.1015 ke support level ke paas support dhoondhne ke baad wapas uptrend channel mein aa gaya.

Technical indicators ko dekha jaye toh red Tenkan-sen flat hai blue Kijun-sen ke against, jabke RSI 50 ke aas paas hover kar raha hai, jo ke neutral to slightly bullish sentiment dikhata hai. Stochastic oscillator bhi oversold levels se rise karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo ke downward correction ke khatam hone ka ishara de raha hai.

Bullish movement ko barhane ke liye, sabse important level 20-day SMA ka hai jo ke 1.1085 par majood hai. Agar price ne is level ko break kiya, toh 1.1150 ke resistance zone ka test ho sakta hai. Lekin, 1.1200 ka area ek strong obstacle bana hua hai, jo pichle month mein gains ko rok raha tha. Traders ko in levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyon ke yehi levels pair ke aglay major move ka faisla karenge.

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya.

Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.

Filhaal market movement 1.1078 ke aas paas hai aur main aglay izafay ka signal intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke aaj dopahar tak market transactions mein koi khaas volatility nahi dekhne ko mili. Pichlay mahine ke benchmark ke mutabiq, ek stable izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai jo ke bich bich mein downward corrections ke sath tha. Market zyada bullish move kar raha hai, lekin main tab tak wait karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko break nahi kar lete, taake buy signal valid ho sake. Aaj ke market movement ke dauran middle position hai

Main theory mein confident lag raha hoon, lekin meri preference bearish shift ki taraf hai, jaise meri intuition keh rahi hai. Umeed hai ke price mere modest goal 1.0859 tak kam ho sakti hai, magar hum further developments ko dekhenge. Yeh zaroori hai ke EUR/USD situation challenging hai, kyunke koi clear objectives saamne nahi aaye hain. Pair ne 1.099 ke neeche jaane mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur 1.109 ke upar firm position establish nahi kar paya. Kal ke session ke baad downward shift dekha gaya, daily chart par ek pin chhoda, jo further declines ka signal de raha hai. Aane wale haftay mein Federal Reserve meeting ke sath increased volatility ki ummeed hai. Magar, main current levels par sell karne ke mood mein nahi hoon aur long positions par focus karunga. Agar price 1.1024 ke neeche girti hai, toh main small stop-loss ke sath buy karne ka sochunga.
Support 1.0939-0949 range mein hone ki ummeed hai, khas taur par agar expected 24 basis point interest rate cut accurate hota hai. Mahine ke end tak, main foresee karta hoon ke pair 12-figure range tak pohnch sakta hai. Jitna zyada drawdown hoga, utni hi behtareen buying opportunities milengi. Hourly aur four-hour charts dono par price Ichimoku cloud aur moving average ke neeche hai, jo medium-term downward trend ke consistent hai. MACD indicator (12.26.8) downward point kar raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ko confirm karta hai, jabke CCI indicator (9) bhi weakly oversold area mein down turn kar raha hai. Sab signs further decline ke liye hain. Agar price apne recent lows ko update nahi karti, toh yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke buyers pause par hain. Ideally, European session isko clarify karegi. Magar, 1.1079 level ke aas paas abhi bhi ek delay hai, jo tab tak hoga jab tak price softer resistance levels ko clear nahi karti.

EUR/USD ka outlook
Dekhte hain keh aaj kya ho sakta hai. Markazi movement Fed meeting ke natije ke bad kal aane ka imkan hai. Ab, traders bade event ke liye taiyar ho rahe hain.
Maine agle kuch dino ke liye apni trading range 1.1050-1.1150 par set ki hai.
Mai sherah ke bare me andazah nahin laga raha hun kiyunkeh yah andhere me teer chalane jaisa hai, aur market ka ibtedai radde amal waise bhi ghair mutawaqqe hoga. Mai sirf intezar kar raha hun aur haqiqat ki buniyad par kam karunga.
America me khudrah farokht aaj kuch utar-chadhaw laa sakti hai. Kal bhi muhazzab harkatein thin. Is tarah, euro/dollar ki jodi aage badhi aur 1.1130 ke qarib ruk gayi. Hamein mutawaqqe manfi radde amal nahin mila. Mai maujudah satah par jodi kharidne par gaur nahin kar raha hun.
Farokht ke liye, mere liye agli dilchasp satah 1.1150 par hai.

Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir US session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, US ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpreter karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai. Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. US trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay. **Monday ko kaise trade karein:**
Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai.

1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga

ستمبر 17 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

گزشتہ روز جاری کردہ جولائی کے لیے یوروزون تجارتی توازن کا ڈیٹا پیشین گوئیوں سے تجاوز کر گیا، جو کہ متوقع €14.9 بلین کے مقابلے میں €21.2 بلین ہے۔ جون کا بیلنس پچھلے تخمینہ €21.7 بلین سے تھوڑا کم تھا۔ اسی وقت، اسٹاک مارکیٹ اور اشیاء میں اضافہ ہوا، ڈالر کا انڈیکس 0.36 فیصد کم ہوا، اور یورو میں 57 پپس کا اضافہ ہوا۔ تاہم، دیگر کرنسیوں نے فیڈرل ریزرو میٹنگ سے پہلے اس امید کو شیئر نہیں کیا۔



کل کے تجزیے میں، ہم نے یورو کے 1.1186 کے ہدف کی سطح تک پہنچنے کے بارے میں شکوک و شبہات کا اظہار کیا، اور وہ شکوک آج بھی برقرار ہیں، کیونکہ کل کی بلندی تقریباً ایک اور سطح یعنی دسمبر 2023 کی چوٹی کے ساتھ ملتی ہے۔ اس مقام سے الٹ پلٹ مکمل طور پر ممکن ہے۔ روزنامہ مارلن آسیلیٹر منفی علاقے میں واپس آنے کا ارادہ ظاہر کر رہا ہے۔ اگر مارکیٹیں خطرے کے اثاثوں کی خریداری جاری رکھتی ہیں، تو یہ مارکیٹ کے بے مقصد گھومنے کا اشارہ دے گا۔ ہمیں یقین ہے کہ یورو آہستہ آہستہ 1.1085 پر سپورٹ کی سطح پر واپس آجائے گا، جہاں اسے فیڈ سے ایف. او. ایم. سی. ریلیز کا سامنا کرنا پڑے گا۔

چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت قلیل مدتی قیمت کے چینل کی بالائی حد سے اوپر چلی گئی ہے، جو بے مقصد مارکیٹ کی بہتی ہوئی تصویر کے ساتھ سیدھ میں آتی دکھائی دیتی ہے۔ نتیجے کے طور پر، دونوں سمتوں میں اہم حرکتیں ہو سکتی ہیں جب فیڈ اپنے شرح کے فیصلے کا اعلان کرتا ہے۔ بالآخر، ہمارا اصل منظرنامہ یورو کے 1.1010 کی سطح سے نیچے گرنے کا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya.

Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.

Filhaal market movement 1.1078 ke aas paas hai aur main aglay izafay ka signal intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke aaj dopahar tak market transactions mein koi khaas volatility nahi dekhne ko mili. Pichlay mahine ke benchmark ke mutabiq, ek stable izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai jo ke bich bich mein downward corrections ke sath tha. Market zyada bullish move kar raha hai, lekin main tab tak wait karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko break nahi kar lete, taake buy signal valid ho sake. Aaj ke market movement ke dauran middle position hai

**EUR/USD Currency Pair Analysis**

Ham EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par, bears apne positions ko barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke wo abhi bhi retreat karne ko tayar nahi hain. Price ne 25% support ko 1.1068 par tod diya hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai, jo mujhe lagta hai ke bears ke liye ek target ban sakta hai. Main temporary upward correction ko nazarandaz nahi karta. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell signal de rahe hain, jo yeh darshata hai ke kuch consolidation ke baad bearish move honay ka imkaan hai. Indicators exchange rate ke girne ki taraf ishaara kar rahe hain, shayad 1.0999 level tak recent breakdown ke baad. Koi aham tabdeeliyan nazar nahi aa rahi; euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo choti si red body wali candle mein reflect ho raha hai.

**U.S. Inflation Report Aur Market Reaction**

Wednesday ko, EUR/USD pair ne "super-important aur super-resonant" U.S. inflation report ke bawajood kaafi pur-sukoon trade kiya. Weekend par humne is report ko "event of the week" kaha, magar kuch traders ki reaction kaafi hairatangez thi. Seedhi baat yeh hai ke dollar barh gaya, jabke inflation 2.5% tak gir gaya. Aaj ke waqt tak, U.S. inflation ke recent reports ne ek hi nateeja diya—dollar ka girna. Yeh point absurdity tak pohnch gaya: U.S. currency minor deviations se bhi girti thi, ya phir bina kisi deviation ke bhi. Seedha yeh hai ke jab U.S. inflation girti hai, dollar bhi girta hai. Lekin kal ek aur aham lamha tha jo dollar ke do saal ke decline ka anjaam darshata hai. Market ne U.S. currency ko kharida, jabke inflation U.S. mein 2.5% tak dheemi ho gayi thi. Humne bar-bar kaha hai ke jab inflation target level ke nazdeek pohnchti hai, tab Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko easing par discussions shuru honi chahiye. Yeh August ke aakhir mein hua, magar yeh paradox hai—market ne do saal se Fed ke easing ko anticipate kiya hua hai, aur zyada chance hai ke yeh already fully priced in hai. Chahe hum 2022 ya 2023 ki baat na bhi karein, market ne is saal ke liye Fed ke maximum rate cuts ko anticipate kiya hai. Naturally, market ne in cuts ko pehle se hi price in kiya hai, jaise woh aksar karta hai. Jab inflation target ke nazdeek hai aur Fed ke paas rate ko ek baar nahi, balki ek complete cycle ke liye policy easing shuru karne ke reasons hain, to market ab is factor ko price in nahi kar sakti—yeh already price in ho chuka hai.

EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon,
GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki ab thoda stronger nazar aa raha hai. Iska reason yeh hai ke candle supply area ko 1.3255 par penetrate nahi kar paayi. Iske alawa, Ichimoku indicator se bhi candle position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche hai, jo trend ko bearish banata hai. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade karte hain, wo sirf sell positions par focus karein. Aap take profit target ko nearest support 1.3070 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss ko nearest resistance 1.3268 par rakh sakte hain

Apne subah ke forecast mein, maine 1.1117 level par focus kiya aur is par trading decisions lene ka plan banaya. Ab 5-minute chart ko dekhte hain aur analyze karte hain ke kya hua. 1.1117 ke aas-paas ek girawat aur ek false breakout ne euro ke liye buy signal trigger kiya, jisse pair 25 points se zyada upar chala gaya. Technical picture ko din ke doosre hissa ke liye revise kiya gaya hai.

**EUR/USD par Long Positions kholne ke liye:**

Jaisa ke expect kiya gaya, euro ne Germany aur Eurozone se weak data ki wajah se girawat ka samna kiya, jo morning ke bullish momentum ke baad pair ke upside potential ko limit kar diya. Din ke doosre hissa mein, U.S. economy se related aur bhi interesting aur important statistics ka intezar hai. Hum retail sales volume, industrial production, aur manufacturing output ke figures expect kar rahe hain. FOMC member Lorie K. Logan ki speech shayad zyada interesting na ho, kyunki wo future rate prospects par discuss nahi karengi. Agar bahut strong data aati hai aur bearish reaction hota hai, to main expect karta hoon ke buyers 1.1117 ke same support level ke aas-paas aayenge, jo din ke pehle hissa mein achha perform kiya. Wahan ek false breakout long positions ke liye zaroori conditions create karega, jo bullish trend ko continue karte hue 1.1150 ke aas-paas recovery ki taraf le jayega, jo last week ke high ke almost barabar hai. Agar is range ke upar breakout aur upward consolidation hota hai, to pair 1.1176 ko test karne ka chance milega. Sabse door target 1.1199 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD girti hai aur din ke doosre hissa mein 1.1117 ke aas-paas koi activity nahi hoti, to pair par pressure barh jayega aur zyada sell-off hoga. Aise mein, main tabhi enter karunga jab agle support 1.1097 ke aas-paas ek false breakout banega, jahan moving averages thodi upar hain. Main 1.1074 se rebound par long positions kholna plan kar raha hoon, aiming for an intraday upward correction of 30-35 points.

**EUR/USD par Short Positions kholne ke liye:**

Sach kehna, sellers ke paas kam chance hain, isliye main tabhi action lunga jab price rise kar ke new weekly high banaye. Level 1.1150 mere liye suitable hai, jahan ek false breakout aur strong U.S. statistics ke saath short positions ke liye achhi conditions banengi, aiming to test support at 1.1117, jo aaj tak break nahi ho paayi. Agar is range ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hota hai, saath hi neeche se upar ke retest ke saath, to ek aur selling point milega jo 1.1097 ki taraf move karega. Sabse door target 1.1074 hoga, jo bulls ke plans ko further euro growth ke liye entirely invalidate karega. Main wahan profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD rise karti hai aur 1.1150 ke aas-paas koi bears nahi hain, to buyers bullish trend ko continue karenge aur resistance 1.1176 ko test karne ka chance hoga. Main wahan bhi sell karunga, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main 1.1199 se rebound par short positions kholne ka plan bana raha hoon, aiming for a downward correction of 30-35 points.

EUR-USD pair ki ab bhi bullish rujhan hai, isliye aaj ke trading mein buy transaction ka option main choice ban sakta hai. Lekin, transaction execute karne se pehle sahi momentum ka intezaar karna behtar hoga, jaise ke chhoti time frame par bullish candlestick pattern ka ubharna. Iska maqsad yeh hai ke jo transactions ki jayein, wo quality open positions de sakain, jisme ideal risk-reward calculations aur achi winning rate ki probabilities hoon.

Transaction decisions banate waqt, nazdeek ki support aur resistance levels ka khayal rakhna zaroori hai. Yeh support aur resistance levels Bollinger Bands indicator, Moving Average, Horizontal Line ya Psychological prices ki madad se maloom kiye ja sakte hain, jo kuch is tarah hain:

Resistance 2 = 1.1170
Resistance 1 = 1.1150
Support 1 = 1.1110
Support 2 = 1.1090

Agar price support area mein rejection ka samna karti hai, to buy transaction ko foran kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin agar support ka breakout hota hai, to buy transaction ka option dobara sochna chahiye. Forex market ke price movements bohot dynamic hote hain, isliye market bearish condition mein bhi ja sakti hai.

Buy option tab bhi kiya ja sakta hai agar EURUSD price pehle resistance ko breakout kar le. Lekin transaction open karne se pehle behtar hai jab price resistance area ko break karne ke baad correction karte hue wapas aaye, jise Resistance Become Support (RBS) kehte hain.

Isliye, aaj se hi risk calculations ke liye tayar ho jayein, taake trading plan ke mutabiq actions le sakein. Isse agar market unpredictable movements dikhaye, to jo losses honge wo measurable aur initial risk limits ke mutabiq honge.

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya.

Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.

Filhaal market movement 1.1078 ke aas paas hai aur main aglay izafay ka signal intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke aaj dopahar tak market transactions mein koi khaas volatility nahi dekhne ko mili. Pichlay mahine ke benchmark ke mutabiq, ek stable izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai jo ke bich bich mein downward corrections ke sath tha. Market zyada bullish move kar raha hai, lekin main tab tak wait karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko break nahi kar lete,