یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki U.S. labor market ke ek aur weak report ne U.S. currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, U.S. dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai.
Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - U.S. trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.
EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new U.S. inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna bohat effective strategy hai, especially jab resistance aur support levels ko identify

EURUSD

EURUSD pair ki price ab bhi higher high - higher low structure mein hai, jo yeh matlab hai ke price movement ka projection barhne ki taraf hai. Jo ongoing decline hai, wo sirf higher low banane ke liye correction phase tak hi limited hai.

Downward correction phase ke ilawa, price 1.0778 ke low prices par invalidation level ko pass karne mein kamiyab rahi hai, jo price pattern structure ko lower low - lower high mein badalne ka initial trigger hai. Filhal, price dono Moving Average lines ke upar hai aur na to EMA 50 ko touch kiya hai aur na hi SMA 200 ko.

Agar price downward correct hoti hai, to yeh EMA 50 ke aas-paas ya phir 1.0949 ke RBS area ki taraf ja sakti hai. RSI indicator parameter (14) jo overbought zone se level 80 - 70 par nikal gaya hai, yeh indicate karta hai ke price downward correction phase mein hai. Agar parameter jo filhal level 50 ki taraf ja raha hai rejection ka saamna karta hai, to price ke phir se upar move karne ka mauka hai.

Iske muqabil, agar parameter level 50 ko successfully pass karta hai aur oversold zone ke level 30 - 20 ki taraf badhta hai, to yeh indicate karega ke downward correction phase continue karega.

Short-term plan ke mutabiq, SELL entry position rakhne ki koshish ki ja sakti hai jab price 1.1027 ke aas-paas ke nearest low prices ko successfully pass karti hai. Kyunki do hafton se zyada ke impulsive rally ke bawajood, ek strong bullish trend direction ke darmiyan downward correction phase zaroori hai.

Confirmation ke liye ensure karein ke RSI indicator parameter (14) level 50 ko successfully pass kare. Take profit ka target 1.0949 ke RBS area mein rakha gaya hai aur stop loss ko 1.1152 ke high prices par set kiya gaya hai.

Euro ne trading week ke doran halka sa recovery dekha, aur 1.11 level tak pohnch gaya. Lekin, yeh movement kuch zyada impactful nahi thi, aur noisy price action ka shikaar thi. Yeh baat zaroori hai ke Federal Reserve ke interest rates ko jaldi cut karne ki ummeed hai, lekin 1.12 mark ke upar ek significant level of resistance hai. Is barrier ko todne ke liye kaafi effort ki zaroorat hogi, jo shayad euro ko near term mein sideways trade karne par majboor kare. Agar market 1.10 level ke neeche break hoti hai, to hum 200-week EMA ka test aur phir 1.09 support level tak movement dekh sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, agar euro resistance ko break karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to shayad 1.1240 level ko todne ke liye kai attempts ki zaroorat pade. Yeh area significant hai kyunki early 2022 mein yahan bade sell-off huye the. Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke interest rate decisions ke sath, market ka movement in policies ke outcomes par depend karta hai. Federal Reserve se expected rate cuts ki number abhi bhi uncertain hai, aur traders Fed ke September decision ke baad press conference, khas taur par Jerome Powell ke statement, ko closely watch karenge.

Filhal, euro apne trading range ke upar ke end ke qareeb hai jahan yeh kaafi saalon se trade kar raha hai. Technical aur fundamental factors ke madde nazar, significant gains achieve karna mushkil ho sakta hai jab tak economic conditions ya policy mein major shift na aaye. Ab ke liye, euro ko resistance levels aur cautious market sentiment se struggle karna pad sakta hai.

Asian session ke dauran Wednesday ko, currency pair negative territory mein trade kar raha hai aur 1.1047 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh halki girawat Greenback ke liye consolidation ke dauran ho rahi hai. Market participants angle economic reports ki taraf dhyan de rahe hain jo currency valuations ko affect kar sakti hain. Khaaskar, aaj ke US Producer Price Index (PPI) ki release investors ke liye ek major point ban gayi hai.
PPI report ke July ke liye inflationary pressures ke thoda kam hone ki ummeed hai. Headline PPI ke 0.1% month-over-month hone ki umeed hai, jo ke pehle ke 0.2% se kam hai. Core PPI, jo volatile food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, ke 2.7% year-over-year hone ki forecast hai, jo June ke 3.0% se kam hai. Yeh figures broader inflation trends ko reflect karengi jo US economy ko affect kar rahi hain.

Upcoming US CPI Data aur Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

Investors US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ke release ka bhi intezar kar rahe hain. Economists ko 0.2% ka increase headline aur core CPI mein ummeed hai, aur annual inflation rates thoda dheere hone ka bhi estimate hai. Headline CPI ke 2.9% tak dheere hone ki ummeed hai, jabke core CPI 3.2% tak pohnchne ka estimate hai. Yeh inflation metrics Federal Reserve ke future policy actions ko assess karne ke liye zaroori hain.

Filhal, market expectations Federal Reserve ke key borrowing rates ko September tak kam karne par focus kar rahi hain. Fed policymakers ko lagta hai ke inflation 2% ke targeted rate ki taraf trend kar rahi hai. Lekin, labor market mein emerging downside risks ke concerns bhi badh rahe hain jo future monetary policy decisions ko affect kar sakte hain.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Bullish Momentum aur Key Levels to Watch

Yeh pair strong bullish trend mein hai, aur 200-week moving average (MA) ko 1.1111 par cross kar gaya hai. Pair ek multi-week high 1.1203 ke kareeb hai. Oscillators different time frames par bullish alignment dikhate hain, jo EUR ke upward momentum ko support kar rahe hain. Lekin, short-term mein potential correction ya consolidation ka risk bhi hai, kyunki intraday aur daily directional movement indices (DMIs) stretched lag rahe hain. 1.1000 psychological level EUR/USD pair ke liye ek critical support point hai

**Price Action Analysis: EUR/USD (Roman Urdu)**

Chalo ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ki price ke behavior aur us se honay wali analysis par baat karte hain. Tumhara target 1.1374 ke qareeb mujhe mumkin lagta hai, khas tor par jab yeh move zyada tar broader fundamentals ki wajah se hoti hai. Yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke kaun se future events prices ko itna ooper le jaa sakte hain—shayad aanay wale elections is mein kirdar ada karein, jis se hum us point tak trade kar sakein baghair kisi bari chart disruption ya invalid candle patterns ke. Main aam tor par is projection se ittefaq karta hoon, lekin yeh zaroor yaad rahe ke short term mein, khaas tor par weekly aur daily charts par, hum shayad 1.1065 se neeche gir jaayein, aur mumkin hai ke yeh 1.1024 tak bhi pohonch jaye. Filhaal, mera bias sell ki taraf hai kyun ke mujhe koi itni mazboot foundation nazar nahi aati jo pair ko kaafi ooper push kar sake, lekin kisi baat ka yaqeen nahi kiya ja sakta. Yeh levels sirf taqriban hain, magar mera focus technical analysis par hai aur bearish move ko favor kar raha hoon jab tak trading 1.1111–1.1120 range se neeche rehti hai.

Abhi EUR/USD mein jo bearish formation nazar aa rahi hai, jo ke pichlay Jumay ke U.S. news ke baad chart par saamne aayi hai, yeh aam tor par ek trap ho sakti hai jo traders ko sell positions mein phansanay ke liye design ki gayi ho. Aksariyat ke sentiment ke bar aks, agar yeh scenario market khulnay ke baad play out hota hai aur kai traders in zones mein bohat ziada selling shuru kar dete hain, to price unexpected tor par upar bhi move kar sakti hai. Trading volumes aur related indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hoga taake yeh samajh sakein ke yeh "smart money" trap hai ya asli bearish signal jo mazeed declines ki taraf le ja raha hai. Agar yeh waqai trap hai, aur market reverse karta hai, to hum initial tor par recent highs se upar takhtay dekh sakte hain jahan significant liquidity jama ho chuki hai. Agar yeh scenario umeed ke mutabiq unfold hota hai, to yeh liquidity poori tarah se tapped ho sakti hai, jis se pair 1.0954 ke aas paas accumulation zone ki taraf chala jaye.

Euro ne trading haftay ke dauran thori recovery ki aur 1.11 level tak pohanch gaya. Lekin, ye harqat kuch khaas nahi thi aur mein shor walay price action se bharpoor thi. Yeh baat aham hai keh Federal Reserve se umeed ki ja rahi hai ke woh jald hi interest rate kum kare ga, lekin 1.12 mark se zyada par ek ahem muqawamat mojood hai. Is muqawamat ko torhna kafi mushkil ho sakta hai, jis ka matlab yeh ho sakta hai ke euro qareeb waqt ke liye sideway trade kare. Agar market 1.10 level se neeche toot jaye, toh hum 200-week EMA ka test aur phir 1.09 support level ki taraf ek move dekh sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, agar euro muqawamat torne mein kamyab ho jata hai, toh usay 1.1240 level se upar jane ke liye kai koshishon ki zaroorat hogi. Yeh ilaqa significant hai kyun ke yahaan 2022 ke aaghaz mein ek bari sell-off hui thi. Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke interest rate ke faislay bhi maarkat ki harqat par asar daltay hain, aur yeh sab kuch in policies ke natayej par manhasir hai. Federal Reserve ke expected rate cuts ki tadaad abhi tak gheir yaqini hai, aur traders September ke faislay ke baad honay wali press conference ko ghor se dekhenge, khaas tor par Jerome Powell ke bayan ko.

Is waqt, euro apni trading range ke saray ke upar ke qareeb hai jo ke kayi saalon se mein hai. Mojuuda technical aur bunyadi factors ko dekhte hue, bari faiday hasil karna mushkil lagta hai jab tak ke hum kisi bari tabdeeli ko maeeshat ya policy mein nahi dekhte. Filhal, euro muqawamat ke levels aur ehtiyat se bharay market jazbay ki wajah se masroof rahe ga.

EUR/USD

Currency pair ne aik kaabil-e-zikr rally ka tajurba kiya hai, jo pehlay saal ke taqreeban sab se ziada highs ko cross karte hue 1.1202 ke upar peak kar gaya hai. Yeh surge zyadatar US Dollar mein aik numaya sell-off ki wajah se hai. 22 August ko European Central Bank (ECB) ne apne Meeting Accounts release kiye, saath hi preliminary HCOB Manufacturing aur Services PMIs Germany aur broader euro area ke liye pesh kiye gaye. Iske ilawa, European Commission ka flash Consumer Confidence gauge bhi publish kiya gaya, jo market sentiment ko mazeed asar-andaz kar raha hai.

Kya Fed September mein bara ya chhota rate cut karega?

US mein musalsal inflationary pressures ka kam hona aur labor market ka thanda hona ne investors ko yeh sochne par majboor kar diya hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates mein kami kar sakta hai. Lekin ab bhi traders ke darmiyan is baat par behas hai ke yeh reduction substantial hogi ya gradual. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis-point cut ka 30.5% chance hai, jabke aksar log ek conservative 25-basis-point reduction ki tawaqo karte hain.

Ab tawajju Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium speech par hai, jahan mazeed insights mil sakti hain ke Fed ka monetary policy ka rukh kya hoga. Financial markets mein taqreeban 67.5% probability factor ki gayi hai ke September mein 25-basis-point rate cut hoga, jaisa ke CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq pata chalta hai.

EUR/USD 13-maheenay ka high hit kar chuka: Kya yeh 2023 ka peak achieve kar sakega?

EUR/USD pair ne haal hi mein December ke peak 1.1202 ko cross kiya, 1.1173 ka high touch kiya, aur phir 13-maheenay ka high 1.1151 par settle hua. Mazid euro ki strength ke chances hain, magar yeh dekhna baqi hai ke 2023 ka high 1.1276 jaldi achieve hoga ya nahi. Filhaal, euro par ek positive outlook barqarar hai, jab tak ‘strong support’ level 1.1027 mazbooti se bana rahe.



Haal hi ke trading mein euro briefly 1.1110 tak gira, phir rebound hote hue 1.1133 tak pohncha aur 1.1123 par close hua. Agay dekhte hue, EUR/USD pair mazid 1.1120 ke upar ja sakti hai, lekin yeh gain aksar 1.1160 ke higher range mein hi rahega. Dosri taraf, yeh euro filhal 1.1110 ke neeche ya 1.1160 ke upar significant move nahi karega.

Subha ke apne tajziye mein, maine 1.1039 ka level highlight kiya tha aur apni trading decisions ka daromadar is par rakha tha. Aayiye 5-minute chart ko dekhtay hain aur jo kuch hua uska tajziya karte hain. Ek girawat hui, lekin yeh 1.1039 ka test ya false breakout tak nahi pohnch saki, is liye koi munasib entry points nahi mile. Doosray hissay ke liye technical outlook mein koi tabdeeli nahi hai.
EUR/USD par long positions kholne ke liye:

Eurozone ke mulkon ke PMI service activity ke disappointing data ne pehle hissay mein euro par dabao dala. In kamzor statistics ne aur zyada zor diya ke eurozone mein interest rate cuts ki zarurat hai, kyun ke agar yeh na hue toh economy ko mazeed growth ke liye momentum kho dene ka khatra hai. Doosray hissay mein tawajjo US trade balance data, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), aur factory order volumes par honi chahiye. Agar data mazboot aata hai, toh euro ki aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is liye mein abhi kharidari ke liye jaldi nahi kar raha. Long positions ke liye ek munasib entry point tab milega agar 1.1039 ke ird gird false breakout hota hai, jisme target hoga 1.1068 ka recovery, jo moving averages ke neeche hai aur abhi tak sellers ke haq mein hai. Agar yeh range break hoti hai aur wapas se test hota hai, toh mazeed growth ke chances hain, jo ke 1.1093 ko test karega. Sab se door target 1.1114 ka high hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD mazeed girta hai aur 1.1039 par buyer activity na dikhti ho, toh sellers apni position ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain, jisse pair mein aur girawat ho sakti hai. Is surat mein, main long positions tab consider karoonga jab 1.1011 ke ird gird false breakout hoga. Wagarna, mein 1.0984 se rebound par long positions kholunga, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target hoga.

EUR/USD par short positions kholne ke liye:

Sellers ne kamzor European statistics ke baad kuch ground hasil kiya, magar unhe baray players se khaas support nahi mili. 1.1039 ka breakout target karne se pehle, intezar karna behtar hoga ke US data ka kya nateeja aata hai, kyun ke agar data kamzor ata hai toh naye buyers risk assets mein invest kar sakte hain. Is surat mein bears ka pehla kaam 1.1068 level ka difa karna hoga. Wahan ek false breakout short positions kholne ka acha mauqa dega, jiska target hoga 1.1039 ka support retest, jahan pehle buyer reaction ka intezar rahega. Agar is level ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hoti hai, toh ek aur selling opportunity milegi, jisme target hoga 1.1011. Sab se door target 1.0984 ka hoga, jahan mein apna profit loonga. Agar EUR/USD upar jata hai aur bears 1.1068 ke ird gird activity nahi dikhate, toh buyers dobara initiative le sakte hain aur resistance 1.1093 tak push kar sakte hain. Mein is level par bhi selling consider karoonga, magar sirf ek failed breakout ke baad. Main short positions 1.1114 se rebound par kholne ka plan rakhta hoon, jisme din ke dauran 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target hoga

posium mein shanasaai ne September mein interest rate cut ke intezaar ko mazid barha diya, jis se euro ki attraction mein izafa hua. Jab ke euro front par zyada economic events nahi the, traders ne Federal Reserve ke Governor Christopher Waller ke letters aur European Union ke euro group meeting par zyada tawajju di. US GDP ke liye doosri quarter mein 2.8% ki annual basis par wohi pehle wali rate rehne ki umeed thi. Magar is hafte ka primary focus July ke Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data par tha. Market ke participants eagerly umeed lagaaye baithe the ke inflation data expectations se kam aayega, jo ke rate cut ki umeed ko barha sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar data expectations se zyada hota hai, toh market mein dobara se volatility aa sakti hai. EUR/USD pair ki price ab bhi simple moving average zone of period 100 ke upar stable chal rahi hai jo ke ek Uptrend market situation ko darsha rahi hai. Pichle hafte market ke halaat upward trend ke saath the jo ke pichle mahine ke bullish trend ke mutabiq the. Mahine ke shuruat mein price increase ne candlestick ko 1.1202 ke position tak pohcha diya. Is mahine ka price increase kaafi zyada lagta hai, lekin trading session ke last night mein ye barhawa continue nahi ho saka kyun ke market mein correction ho rahi thi. Aaj subah tak price uptrend zone mein move karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Tuesday raat ko price upar jaane ki koshish kar raha tha magar weekly price opening ko cross nahi kar saka. Magar, raat ke increase ke saath price ke mazeed ooper jaane ki umeed aur chance barh jata hai kyun ke correction ka momentum, jo aam tor par bullish trend ko lamba karta hai, uss se madad milti hai. Aaj tak price ki journey monthly opening price zone se door chal rahi hai jo ke 1.0824 ke position par thi. Mere khayal mein, ho sakta hai ke candlestick ab bhi upar move karna chahti hai jaise pichle hafte ka market trend tha. EUR/USD pair mein market situation ab active hoti nazar aa rahi hai, halan ke buyers ki efforts price ko barhane ke liye abhi tak itni strong nahi hain. Ho sakta hai ke market jab American session mein aayega toh koi mukhtalif situation samne aaye. Is hafte ke trading mein achi opportunities dhoondhne ke liye yeh trading reference diya jaa raha hai ke jab bullish direction ka continuation mazid strong hota naza

EUR/USD pair ki price movement dekh kar lag raha hai ke market fluctuations ka samna kar rahi hai, jo ke broader fundamentals aur technical analysis ko reflect karta hai. Aap ka target 1.1374 ka hai jo ke possible lag raha hai, khas tor par jab future events, jaise upcoming elections, prices ko iss level tak le ja sakte hain baghair kisi baray chart disruptions ya invalid candle patterns ke. Mere nazdeek, short-term mein humein weekly aur daily charts par price 1.1065 se neeche aur shayad 1.1024 tak jati nazar aa sakti hai. Mera bias bhi filhal selling ki taraf hai kyun ke koi mazboot foundation nahi lag rahi jo pair ko significantly upar le ja sake. Mujhe lagta hai trading jab tak 1.1111-1.1120 range ke neeche hai, tab tak bearish move ki taraf rujhan rahega.

Aaj market band hai chutti ki wajah se aur last closing price 1.0845 par hui thi. Guzishta hafte se prices narrow range mein trade kar rahi hain aur iss maheene ka high 1.0960 hai. Yeh level hit hone ke baad market ne support establish kiya hai. Iss maheene ka low 1.0745 hai jo ab support ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar price dobara support ko test karti hai to market naye support levels bana sakti hai. Abhi resistance level 1.0868 par hai aur support 1.0941 par. H4 timeframe mein agar candle current support level ke upar close hoti hai, to ek naya support level banega. H1 timeframe par chart dekh kar lag raha hai ke price trend bana rahi hai aur agar yeh trend continue hota hai to market price nayi lows tak ja sakti hai. Technical analysis dekh kar lagta hai ke market mein abhi selling ka pressure zyada hai aur bullish moves ke liye koi strong foundation nazar nahi aa rahi.

Aaj new week ke aaghaz mein, chaliye D1 period chart ko dekhtay hain yeh EUR/USD currency pair hai. Senior period par wave structure abhi bhi ascending order mein bana hua hai. MACD indicator, jo ke upper purchase zone mein hai, apni signal line se neeche gir raha hai, jo ke ek correction phase ko indicate karta hai. Mera khayal hai ke decline abhi khatam nahi hua, price abhi bhi mushkil se gir rahi hai, jab ke growth asaan thi, price leap aur bounds mein upar gayi. Sabse qareebi aur important target 1.0950 ka horizontal support level hai, jo candles ki closing prices par bana hua hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke hum wahan tak eventually pohanch jayein gay. Yeh na sirf ek daily level hai, balkay ek weekly bhi hai.
Guzishta chand dinon mein, price ne decline se ek upward correction ki aur mirror level 1.1150 par pohanchi jo ke ek powerful sales zone hai. Jumma ke din USA ki news par price ko wahan par sharply upar throw kiya gaya tha, magar itni hi tez tareeqe se wahan se neeche bhi throw kar diya gaya. Mera maanan hai ke pichlay maheene ki itni powerful growth ke baad, ab correction ki kam az kam teen waves ki model niche banegi. Agar hum supposed third wave ko first wave ki barabari mein lagayen, to price movement taqriban 1.0955 level tak pohanchne ke liye kafi hai, jo candles ki closing prices par bana hai. Aksar price isi cycle mein move karti hai jahan pehli wave teesri wave ke barabar hoti hai, aur yeh har period par nazar aata hai, magar aisa pattern hota hai. To mujhe lagta hai ke descent yahan se continue karega. Is supposed first wave par target Fibonacci grid lagayi ja sakti hai, magar asal mein zaroorat nahi, kyun ke target abhi bhi 1.0950 ka level hi hai. Baqi major pairs bhi qareeb future mein US dollar ke strengthen hone par focused hain.

Aise lagta hai ke ab kaam ki priority chhote timeframes par niche ki taraf rollback aur sales formations par focus hai, kam az kam jab tak specified target level pohanch na jaye. Wahaan se correction ki wave of growth bhi ban sakti hai, jis ka kuch hissa within the day trading se capture kiya ja sakta hai.

Is dauran, US mein August mein hourly earnings expected se tez tariqay se barhi hain, jo ke wage growth ki mazbooti ko indicate karta hai. Yeh Fed ki interest rates ko aggressively cut karne ki ability ko limit kar sakti hai. EUR/USD pair ne August mein strong performance dikhayi hai, jo ke 1.0776 se le kar kareeb 1.1200 tak sharp rise kiya hai. Magar caution zaroori hai kyun ke RSI aur Stochastics overbought territory mein weakness dikha rahe hain, jo continued selling interest ko suggest karta hai. 1.1240-1.1274 area, jisme 2021-2022 downtrend ka 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur 2022 low ki trendline shamil hai, further upside movement ko resist kar sakta hai. Upside 1.1340 se 1.1370 tak pohanch sakti hai, jab ke 1.1480 ka area ek tough hurdle ke taur par kaam karega.

kuch arsay ke liye 160-164 ke beech range mein reh sakta hai. Pound is waqt hamari mentioned resistance 1.3250 ke neeche acha hold kar raha hai, aur jab tak is par ek strong break nahi aata, yeh 1.31 ya usse neeche gir sakta hai. Aussie crucial level 0.68 ke ird gird oscillate kar raha hai, jisse agar break hota hai toh yeh 0.6850 tak ja sakta hai. Abhi ke levels par price action ko gaur se dekhen. USDCNY ko 7.12 ke upar sustain karna hoga taake yeh 7.18 tak wapas rise kar sake. EURINR agle kuch sessions mein 93-92 tak wapas gir sakta hai jab tak yeh 94 se neeche hai. USDINR nazdeek muddat ke liye 84.00-83.75 ke region mein trade karta reh sakta hai.
US Treasury yields bounce par hold kar rahe hain. Halan ke resistances upside ko cap kar sakte hain agar yeh aur barhte hain. Broader trend neeche hai, aur yields dubara se lower reverse ho sakte hain. German yields ek corrective rise par hain. Aage move karne ki jagah hai jab tak ke overall downtrend resume hoti hai aur yields phir se gir jati hain. 10Yr GoI rise karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Ahem resistances aage hain jo rise ko restrict karenge aur yields ko dubara neeche le ja sakte hain.

Dow Jones aur Nifty ke paas 41800-42000 aur 25500 tak rise karne ka scope hai jab tak support 40800 aur 24500 par hai. DAX resistance ke upar breach karne ke signs de raha hai aur mazeed upside target kar raha hai. Nikkei ek narrow range mein stuck hai lekin iske paas scope hai ke eventually upper end of the range ko break kar sake. Shanghai 2840 ke upar hover kar raha hai lekin outlook ab bhi bearish hai, aur 2800 tak girne ka chance hai.

Crude prices Tuesday ko sharply gir gayi jab Goldman Sachs ne apni 2025 Brent crude forecast $82 per barrel se kam karke $77 per barrel kar di lekin immediate supports hain jo hold kar sakte hain aur bounce back produce kar sakte hain. Gold, Silver aur Copper mein follow through rise ki kami hai lekin ab bhi 2600, 31-31.50 aur 4.4 tak rise karne ka scope hai. Natural gas gir raha hai lekin downside 2.0-1.9 tak limited ho sakta hai

EUR/USD pair ne haftay ke aakhir mein apne upar ki movement mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko jo pehle ka high tha, us tak nahi pohanch paayi. Halankeh recent mein US dollar (USD) mein girawat aayi hai, spot price ab bhi 1.1125 ke upar hai. Euro ko support dene wala ek ahem factor US labor market ki kamzori hai. Wednesday ko release hui data ne bataya ke US employment growth March mein pehle ke andazay se kafi kam rahi. Iske ilawa, unemployed logon ki tadaad mein izafa bhi market ko thanda kar raha hai, jo ek economic slowdown ke khauf ko barha raha hai. Yeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ke mumkin hone ki ummeed ko barha raha hai, jo euro ko support de raha hai. Halankeh kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch support de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne bullish sentiment ko thanda kiya hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se neeche aayi, lekin 50 ke upar rahi, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany, jo eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, ne do mahine se contraction dekha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD ki appreciation ko limit kar sakti hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ki July policy meeting ne kuch bearish forces ko darshaya, aur bulls ka resistance nahi dikhayi de raha, isliye short positions ko faida mand mana ja raha hai. Maine socha ke profits ko sabse nazdeek 1.11385 support level par roknay ka faida hai, future gains ko khatre mein daalne ke bajaye. Level 1.11888 stop loss level ke thoda upar hoga. Sellers ka momentum ab bhi barh raha hai, aur level 1.11385 toot gaya hai, jo ke bullish situation ko indicate karta hai. Filhal, sab kuch EUR/USD ke liye growth ki taraf ishara kar raha hai mere nazariye se. Ek baar phir, rule apply hota hai: rumors par buy karo, facts par sell karo. Rate September mein kam hoga, mujhe ismein koi shak nahi hai, sawal yeh hai ke kitna kam hoga? Shayad 25 points. Long-term inflation forecasts bhi 2% tak girne ka saboot deti hain. Pichle hafte revised NFP statistics bhi aayi, jisme 800K jobs ki reduction hui jo published data ke saath comparison mein kafi negative hai. Abhi yeh gradually correction ke nateeje mein gir rahe hain. Mera belief hai ke hum jaldi naye growth phase mein enter karenge aur 12th figure tak pohochne ki umeed hai. Main 1.1230 ke aas-paas selling try karne ke liye tayar rahunga. EUR/USD market position apni upward trend ko maintain kar rahi hai, khas kar jab four-hour aur daily time frames ko dekha jaye. Main weekly chart ko dekhunga taake ascending channel ke lower boundary ko identify kiya ja sake, jo shayad 1.0999 ke support level ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jahan ek notable bearish correction ho sakta hai, aur jo log upward movement ko capitalize karna chahte hain unke liye entry points offer kar sakti hai. Pair aggressive upward trend ko bina kisi significant correction ke follow kar raha hai

Asian session ke dauran Wednesday ko, currency pair negative territory mein trade kar raha hai aur 1.1047 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh halki girawat Greenback ke liye consolidation ke dauran ho rahi hai. Market participants angle economic reports ki taraf dhyan de rahe hain jo currency valuations ko affect kar sakti hain. Khaaskar, aaj ke US Producer Price Index (PPI) ki release investors ke liye ek major point ban gayi hai. PPI report ke July ke liye inflationary pressures ke thoda kam hone ki ummeed hai. Headline PPI ke 0.1% month-over-month hone ki umeed hai, jo ke pehle ke 0.2% se kam hai. Core PPI, jo volatile food aur energy prices ko exclude karta hai, ke 2.7% year-over-year hone ki forecast hai, jo June ke 3.0% se kam hai. Yeh figures broader inflation trends ko reflect karengi jo US economy ko affect kar rahi hain.

Upcoming US CPI Data aur Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

Investors US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ke release ka bhi intezar kar rahe hain. Economists ko 0.2% ka increase headline aur core CPI mein ummeed hai, aur annual inflation rates thoda dheere hone ka bhi estimate hai. Headline CPI ke 2.9% tak dheere hone ki ummeed hai, jabke core CPI 3.2% tak pohnchne ka estimate hai. Yeh inflation metrics Federal Reserve ke future policy actions ko assess karne ke liye zaroori hain.

Filhal, market expectations Federal Reserve ke key borrowing rates ko September tak kam karne par focus kar rahi hain. Fed policymakers ko lagta hai ke inflation 2% ke targeted rate ki taraf trend kar rahi hai. Lekin, labor market mein emerging downside risks ke concerns bhi badh rahe hain jo future monetary policy decisions ko affect kar sakte hain.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Bullish Momentum aur Key Levels to Watch

Yeh pair strong bullish trend mein hai, aur 200-week moving average (MA) ko 1.1111 par cross kar gaya hai. Pair ek multi-week high 1.1203 ke kareeb hai. Oscillators different time frames par bullish alignment dikhate hain, jo EUR ke upward momentum ko support kar rahe hain. Lekin, short-term mein potential correction ya consolidation ka risk bhi hai, kyunki intraday aur daily directional movement indices (DMIs) stretched lag rahe hain. 1.1000 psychological level EUR/USD pair ke liye ek critical support point hai

Wednesday ko release hui data ne bataya ke US employment growth March mein pehle ke andazay se kafi kam rahi. Iske ilawa, unemployed logon ki tadaad mein izafa bhi market ko thanda kar raha hai, jo ek economic slowdown ke khauf ko barha raha hai. Yeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ke mumkin hone ki ummeed ko barha raha hai, jo euro ko support de raha hai. Halankeh kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch support de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne bullish sentiment ko thanda kiya hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se neeche aayi, lekin 50 ke upar rahi, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany, jo eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, ne do mahine se contraction dekha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD ki appreciation ko limit kar sakti hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ki July policy meeting ne kuch bearish forces ko darshaya, aur bulls ka resistance nahi dikhayi de raha, isliye short positions ko faida mand mana ja raha hai. Maine socha ke profits ko sabse nazdeek 1.11385 support level par roknay ka faida hai, future gains ko khatre mein daalne ke bajaye. Level 1.11888 stop loss level ke thoda upar hoga. Sellers ka momentum ab bhi barh raha hai, aur level 1.11385 toot gaya hai, jo ke bullish situation ko indicate karta hai. Filhal, sab kuch EUR/USD ke liye growth ki taraf ishara kar raha hai mere nazariye se. Ek baar phir, rule apply hota hai: rumors par buy karo, facts par sell karo. Rate September mein kam hoga, mujhe ismein koi shak nahi hai, sawal yeh hai ke kitna kam hoga? Shayad 25 points. Long-term inflation forecasts bhi 2% tak girne ka saboot deti hain. Pichle hafte revised NFP statistics bhi aayi, jisme 800K jobs ki reduction hui jo published data ke saath comparison mein kafi negative hai. Abhi yeh gradually correction ke nateeje mein gir rahe hain. Mera belief hai ke hum jaldi naye growth phase mein enter karenge aur 12th figure tak pohochne ki umeed hai. Main 1.1230 ke aas-paas selling try karne ke liye tayar rahunga. EUR/USD market position apni upward trend ko maintain kar rahi hai, khas kar jab four-hour aur daily time frames ko dekha jaye. Main weekly chart ko dekhunga taake ascending channel ke lower boundary ko identify kiya ja sake, jo shayad 1.0999 ke support level ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jahan ek notable bearish correction ho sakta hai, aur jo log upward movement ko capitalize karna chahte hain Unke liye entry points offer kar sakti hai