Eurusd forum

Currency pair ne 1.1150 tak kuch waqt ke liye bulandiyon ka saamna kiya, lekin phir se apne aam range 1.1204 ke aas-paas wapas aa gaya, aur 2024 ka naya high set karne ka mauka chhod diya. Market ki ummeedein bharak gayi thi, investors ko lag raha tha ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts jaldi implement kar sakta hai. Sab se zyada speculation is baat ke aas-paas hai ke shayad September mein double rate cut ho sakta hai, jo currency fluctuations ko heavily influence kar raha hai. Eurozone ki Economic Data ne Aage ke Rate Cuts ki Umeedein Kam Kar Di: Eurozone ke economic indicators ne is saal additional interest rate cuts ke liye umeedein kam kar di hain. Inflation data expected se zyada aaya hai, jahan Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein 2.6% saal-on-saal badh gaya, jabke consensus estimate 2.4% tha. Core HICP, jo food aur energy jese volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.9% tak barh gaya, jabke expected 2.8% tha. Ye figures Eurozone ke mazboot economic conditions ko highlight karti hain aur further rate reductions ki ummeedon ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor karti hain. EUR/USD ki Correction Limited Hai Jabke Mazboot German Data Euro ko Support De Raha Hai:

EUR/USD mein recent correction itni substantial ya tez nahi dikhayi gayi. German economic data, khaaskar June ke Factory Orders, ne Euro ko support diya hai. Jabke June mein 0.8% month-over-month increase ki expectations thi, jo May mein 1.6% ki kami ke baad thi, actual data ne forecasts ko piche chhod diya aur 3.9% ka izafa dikhaya. Ye strong performance Eurozone economy ki resilience ko dikhata hai aur Euro ki position ko support karta hai.

D1 Chart ke Key Technical Levels aur Resistance Points ko Dekhein:

1.1203 ka mark ek significant resistance point raha hai jahan buyers ne pehle step in kiya hai. Agar is level se upar successful rally hoti hai, to December ki peak 1.1139 par dhyan jaa sakta hai. Agar Fed koi achanak emergency rate cut implement karta hai, to market conditions volatile ho sakti hain aur 1.1277 tak ka move bhi mumkin ho sakta hai.

Lekin, pair ne kuch resistance ka saamna kiya hai, khaaskar Monday ko 1.10 ke upar thodi der ke liye spike ke baad. Is level ne strong selling pressure dekha, jo ek critical descending trend line ke neeche retreat kar gaya. Pair ko agle bullish leg ke liye strength build karni hai, ise solid support milna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought territory ke qareeb hai, jo suggest karta hai ke ek pullback zaroori ho sakta hai pehle ke kisi potential rally ke momentum gain karne se pehle

**EUR/USD**
EUR/USD joṛe ne markazi bank ke iqdamāt aur mukhtalif Amreeki bunyādi data ke waja se kaafi utar chadhāw dekha hai. Ibtidāan, ye joṛ 1.1100 mark se upar gaya, aur 1.1120 tak ka buland hadf chho gaya. Lekin, bawajood iske ke Federal Reserve ki rate cut ke majbut daʻvay hain, qeemat ne in faidoun se faida nahi uthaya, aur wapas 1.1075 tak retreat kar gaya. Ye volatility zyadatar Amreeka se milne wale mixed economic indicators ka natija thi, jo traders mein be-yaqeeni ka sabab bana. Halankeh market ab bhi Federal Reserve ke rate cut ka intizaar kar raha hai, traders ka dehaan ab Jumay ko aane wale U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report par hai. Ye report U.S. Dollar ke liye aik bara catalyst sabit ho sakti hai, aur agar yeh expectations ke mutabiq na hui, to ye Fed rate cut ke liye case ko ya to mazid mazboot ya kamzor kar sakti hai.



Europe mein, European Central Bank (ECB) bhi is mahine mein lagbhag zaroori taur par rate cut karegi, jo EUR/USD ke future outlook ko aur bhi paicheeda banata hai. Dono markazi banks ka dovish policies ki taraf jhukaav ne is joṛ ko aik kashmakash mein rakha hua hai. Yakeenan, Euro ko Fed ke mumkin rate cut se faida hua hai, lekin ECB ke aane wale rate faislay ke waja se Euro dabāo mein hai. Market ki mushkil ko aur barhane wala ek aur factor ye hai ke U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ne New York session ke doran EUR/USD aur sone ke daam par dabāo dala. Sona pehle chand lamhāt ke liye faida utha saka, lekin baad mein U.S. Dollar ke mazid mazboot honay ke waja se neechay gir gaya. Jab tak market ko NFP report aur ECB se wazeh signals nahi miltay, EUR/USD joṛ mein volatility barqarar rehne ka imkaan hai, aur agar data mixed raha, to is joṛ mein mazeed pullbacks ho sakte hain.

**EUR/USD Currency Pair Analysis**
EUR/USD karansi joṛ ko Thursday ki Asian trading session ke doran halka sa nuqsan hua, jo zyada tar US dollar ki mazbooti aur US Treasury bonds ke zyada returns ke waja se tha. Magar, dollar kamzor ho gaya jab July ke liye Jolts job openings report ko jaari kiya gaya, jo umeedon se neeche rahi, aur yeh labour market mein ahista ahista slowdown ka izhaar karti hai. Traders ab US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) aur initial jobless claims ke release ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, Jumay ko jaari hone wali non-farm payrolls report se Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke imkaanaat par mazeed maloomat milengi. Atlanta ke Federal Reserve Bank ke sarbaraah Rafael Postic ne monetary policy par neutral nazariya izhaar kiya, aur kaha ke Fed ka mauqaf acha hai lekin mazid waqat tak restrictive policies ka istemal nahi karna chahiye.

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Eurozone mein, consumer price index (CPI) July mein 0.8% quarterly base par barha, jabke services PMI aur composite PMI kamzor ho gaye. Yeh data is baat ki nishani hain ke European Central Bank (ECB) September mein interest rates kam kar sakti hai, jo euro par dabao daal sakti hai. EUR/USD joṛ filhal 20-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 1.1050 ke support area ke qareeb hai. Technical indicators jaise ke Stochastic Index aur Relative Strength Index behtari ka izhaar kar rahe hain. Agar 1.1050 ke level ko break kiya jata hai, to 1.1200 ke pehle peak ko challenge karne ka imkaan hai, aur ho sakta hai ke July 2023 ka buland hadf 1.1275 bhi test kiya jaye. Neeche ki taraf, agar mazid girawat hoti hai, to 1.0870 ka target ho sakta hai, aur us ke baad 200-day moving average 1.0850 par. Agar qeemat neeche jati hai aur 1.1100 ke neeche close hoti hai, to 20-day SMA, jo ke qareeb 1.1000 par hai, tak girawat ho sakti hai. Agar qeemat girti hai, to tamaam nazrein July 2023 ke broken resistance trendline aur 50% Fibonacci level 1.0940 par ho sakti hain. 50-aur 200-day SMAs jo ke 1.0880 aur 1.0845 par hain, girawat ko rokne ka kaam kar sakte hain. Agar aisa nahi hota, to selling pressure barh sakta hai aur qeemat ko 1.0725 tak le ja sakta hai.

Jumay ko jab European trading session ka aghaz hua, to EUR/USD karansi joṛ mein kuch kamzori dekhne ko mili, jo ke 1.1085 ke qareeb hover kar rahi thi. Yeh girawat US Dollar (USD) mein halqi si recovery ke bawajood hui, jis ne is joṛ par neeche ki taraf dabao dala. Magar, EUR/USD mein mazid girawat ke imkaanaat had tak mehdood ho sakte hain, kyun ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Chair Jerome Powell ne September mein rate cut ka ishara diya hai, jo ke is joṛ ke trajectory ko asar انداز کر sakta hai.
### Aham Iqtisadi Updates: France, US, aur ECB

Traders ghore se France ke Business Confidence data ka intezaar karenge, jo ke French ma'eeshat ki sehat ke hawalay se maloomat faraham karega. US ke hawalay se, Federal Reserve ke Chair Powell ka aane wala speech aur housing market data bhi ghore se dekha jaye ga. Haal hi mein, US Initial Jobless Claims ka data, jo August 17 ko khatam hone wale hafte ke liye tha, 232K par aya, jo ke 230K ke umeed se zyada tha aur pichlay hafte ke figure se bhi barh gaya tha. Iske ilawa, S&P Global ka August PMI reports mix results le kar aya: jahan Services PMI umeedon se zyada raha, wahan Manufacturing PMI mazeed contraction mein chala gaya, jo ke ek bara ma'eeshi slowdown ka izhaar karta hai.

Eurozone mein, Flash PMIs bhi mix results dikhate hain. ECB ke member Martins Kazaks ka ek aham bayan dekhne ko mila jab unhon ne Bloomberg par rate cut ke hawalay se baat ki aur kaha ke September mein rate cut ka tajziya karne ke liye tayar hain. Kazaks ne yeh bhi ishara diya ke agar inflation barqarar rehti hai to mazeed rate cuts ko bhi dekha ja sakta hai, lekin yeh cuts ahista ahista honge aur policy ko restrictive rakha jaye ga.

### H4 Chart EUR/USD Technical Update: Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish Signals


EUR/USD karansi joṛ ne haali mein sideways movement dikhayi hai jab yeh naye swing high 1.1203 par pohnchi. Yeh mazbooti Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern se breakout ke baad weekly time frame par dekhi gayi thi. Karansi joṛ ko upward-sloping 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 1.1088 par support mil rahi hai, jo ke mazeed faida dekhne mein madad kar sakti hai.

EUR/USD joṛ ka price abhi tak higher high aur higher low structure mein hai, iska matlab yeh hai ke price movement ka rujhan mazeed barhne ki taraf hoga. Jo chal rahi girawat hai, woh sirf ek correction phase tak mehdood hai, jo ke ek higher low banane ke liye ho rahi hai.
Agar downward correction phase ke ilawa price 1.0778 ke low price par invalidation level ko cross kar leti hai, toh yeh pehla ishara hoga ke price pattern structure lower low aur lower high mein tabdeel ho raha hai. Is waqt, price abhi tak do Moving Average lines ke upar hai aur na toh EMA 50 aur na hi SMA 200 ko touch kiya hai.

Agar price neeche ko correct hoti hai, toh yeh EMA 50 ya phir 1.0949 ke RBS area ki taraf jaane ka imkaan rakhti hai. RSI indicator parameter (14) jo overbought zone se 80-70 level ke darmiyan nikal chuka hai, yeh darasl yeh darshaata hai ke price filhaal downward correction phase mein hai. Misal ke taur par, agar current parameter level 50 par pohnch kar rejection ka shikar hota hai, toh yeh price ke dobara upar jaane ka imkaan paida karta hai.

Iske bar'aks, agar yeh parameter level 50 ko cross kar ke oversold zone 30-20 level ki taraf jaata hai, toh yeh darshaata hai ke downward correction phase mazeed jari rahega.

### Short-Term Plan

Short-term plan mein ho sakta hai ke ek SELL entry position place karne ka irada ho jab price qareebi low price range 1.1027 ko cross kar jaye. Kyunki takreeban do haftay tak ek impulsive rally ke baad, ek downward correction phase ka ana zaroori hai, chahe overall trend bullish hi kyun na ho.


Iska confirmation yeh hoga ke RSI indicator parameter (14) level 50 ko successfully cross kar jaye. Take profit ka target RBS area 1.0949 mein rakha gaya hai aur stop loss high price 1.1152 par set ki gayi hai.

USD pair ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki US labor market ke ek aur weak report ne US currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, US dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai. Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - US trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.

EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new US inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next

EUR/USD currency pair ki price behavior ka tajziya ek important discussion ka topic hai. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, EUR/USD pair ek downward trend mein hai, aur price ne haftay ka akhri point apni sabse niche point par end kiya hai. Yeh lagta hai ke price wapas is line ki taraf move karegi, jahan lagbhag 69 points hain jo further testing ke liye hain. Halanki is line par reversal ka possibility hai, lekin yeh uncertain hai. Lekin, market mein bearish sentiment ke chalte, pair ke niche jane ke chances kaafi zyada hain, kyunki yeh recent highs se kaafi door hai. Isliye, price ke decline karne ki umeed zyada hai. Agle haftay ke liye, main ek possible growth ki koshish ki umeed rakhta hoon, lekin market ki direction abhi unclear hai. Aapko kuch din intezar karna aur Wednesday tak situation ka dobara tajziya karna sahi rahega. Agle mahine mein kaafi economic data releases ki umeed hai, isliye market Monday ko sideways trade kar sakti hai. Recent daily sessions mein, chaar lagatar candles ne 1.1188 level ke niche trade kiya, jo euro ke liye strong sell indication thi, jisse bearish pressure barh gaya aur teen straight declines hui. Friday ko, bearish daily stochastic oversold territory mein chala gaya aur price Bollinger Band ke midpoint ko touch kiya. Yeh bullish correction ka potential suggest karta hai, isliye aaj ke liye further sales pause karna prudent rahega. Weekly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi bana hai. Kuch log keh sakte hain ke yeh ek full engulfing pattern nahi hai, lekin is context mein choti discrepancies, jaise kuch points, negligible hain—especially considering the 129-point decline, jo maine traditionally fourth decimal place se calculate kiya. Yeh significant drop ek aise point ko signal karta hai jahan reversal ka chance kam hai, aur agla target level 1.1008 ke aas-paas ya usse bhi niche ho sakta hai, jahan choti corrections 1.1029 area ke paas expected hain, jahan support zone briefly pause provide kar sakta hai.

Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein extra activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany Ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziyata active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi be

EUR/USD pair ne haftay ke aakhir mein apne upar ki movement mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko jo pehle ka high tha, us tak nahi pohanch paayi. Halankeh recent mein US dollar (USD) mein girawat aayi hai, spot price ab bhi 1.1125 ke upar hai. Euro ko support dene wala ek ahem factor US labor market ki kamzori hai. Wednesday ko release hui data ne bataya ke US employment growth March mein pehle ke andazay se kafi kam rahi. Iske ilawa, unemployed logon ki tadaad mein izafa bhi market ko thanda kar raha hai, jo ek economic slowdown ke khauf ko barha raha hai. Yeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ke mumkin hone ki ummeed ko barha raha hai, jo euro ko support de raha hai. Halankeh kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch support de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne bullish sentiment ko thanda kiya hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se neeche aayi, lekin 50 ke upar rahi, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany, jo eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, ne do mahine se contraction dekha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD ki appreciation ko limit kar sakti hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ki July policy meeting ne kuch bearish forces ko darshaya, aur bulls ka resistance nahi dikhayi de raha, isliye short positions ko faida mand mana ja raha hai. Maine socha ke profits ko sabse nazdeek 1.11385 support level par roknay ka faida hai, future gains ko khatre mein daalne ke bajaye. Level 1.11888 stop loss level ke thoda upar hoga. Sellers ka momentum ab bhi barh raha hai, aur level 1.11385 toot gaya hai, jo ke bullish situation ko indicate karta hai. Filhal, sab kuch EUR/USD ke liye growth ki taraf ishara kar raha hai mere nazariye se. Ek baar phir, rule apply hota hai: rumors par buy karo, facts par sell karo. Rate September mein kam hoga, mujhe ismein koi shak nahi hai, sawal yeh hai ke kitna kam hoga? Shayad 25 points. Long-term inflation forecasts bhi 2% tak girne ka saboot deti hain. Pichle hafte revised NFP statistics bhi aayi, jisme 800K jobs ki reduction hui jo published data ke saath comparison mein kafi negative hai. Abhi yeh gradually correction ke nateeje mein gir rahe hain. Mera belief hai ke hum jaldi naye growth phase mein enter karenge aur 12th figure tak pohochne ki umeed hai. Main 1.1230 ke aas-paas selling try karne ke liye tayar rahunga. EUR/USD market position apni upward trend ko maintain kar rahi hai, khas kar jab four-hour aur daily time frames ko dekha jaye. Main weekly chart ko dekhunga taake ascending channel ke lower boundary ko identify kiya ja sake, jo shayad 1.0999 ke support level ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jahan ek notable bearish correction ho sakta hai, aur jo log upward movement ko capitalize karna chahte hain unke liye entry points offer kar sakti hai. Pair aggressive upward trend ko bina kisi significant correction ke follow kar raha hai.

EUR/USD exchange rate ne chal rahe selling pressure ke bawajood 1.0842 ke aas-paas stabilize kar liya hai, jabke Eurozone aur US manufacturing aur services sectors ke Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings ke announcement ki intezar hai. Reliable trading platforms ke mutabiq, euro trading week ke shuru mein $1.088 ke aas-paas fluctuate kar raha tha, aur European Central Bank (ECB) ke upcoming monetary policy review ke liye anticipation barh rahi hai. Recently, euro ne July 17 ko $1.094 par apne chaar mahine ke peak se retreat kiya, jo market uncertainty ka indication hai.

**Aane Wale Economic Data Release**

Traders aur analysts is hafte Eurozone, Germany, aur France ke flash PMI data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Ye figures economic health aur performance ke critical insights provide karengi, jo market participants ko ongoing euro volatility handle karne mein madad karengi.

**Market Sentiment aur Future Expectations**

Euro ka recent decline apne peak se underlying market anxiety ko reflect karta hai, jo European Central Bank ke future actions ke hawale se speculation se driven hai. Interest rate cuts aur naye macroeconomic forecasts par emphasis ECB ki accommodative stance ko highlight karta hai economic indicators ke response mein. Isliye, upcoming PMI data market sentiment aur euro ke trajectory ke expectations ko shape karne mein pivotal hogi.

**Key Economic Indicators**

Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Eurozone, Germany, aur France ke flash PMI data economic activity aur sentiment ke key indicators ke roop mein serve karenge in critical regions. Stronger-than-expected PMI reading euro ko support de sakti hai, jabke weaker data ECB ke further monetary easing ke expectations ko barha sakti hai.

Jabke euro $1.088 ke aas-paas hai, attention ab ECB ke policy review aur crucial economic data ke release par hai. Central bank ke decisions, jo updated economic forecasts aur indicators se influence honge, euro ke future trajectory ko determine karenge. Isliye, investors aur traders ko in developments se update rehna chahiye taake potential currency market fluctuations ko navigate kiya ja sake.

**Eurozone Mein Consumer Sentiment Behtareen**

Preliminary estimates ke mutabiq, Eurozone ka consumer confidence index July 2024 mein -13 par chala gaya, jo pehle ke mahine se -14 se behtar hai aur market expectations of -13.4 ko surpass karta hai. Ye level February 2022 ke baad se highest hai, jo ECB ke recent interest rate cuts ke response mein inflation ke easing ke sabab hai. Market sentiment September aur shayad December mein further rate cuts ki umeed rakhta hai. France mein parliamentary elections ke baad political concerns bhi kam hue hain, jo single-party dominance aur legislative gridlock ke fears ko reduce karta hai. Wider European Union mein bhi consumer sentiment behtar hua hai, jo -12.2 par pahunch gaya hai.

#EUR/USD H4 Euro - US Dollar

Is waqt jo chart dekh rahe hain, usmein Euro aur US Dollar ke darmiyan aik clear bullish sentiment nazar aa raha hai. Heiken Ashi candle indicator ka istemal karke isko asani se pehchana ja sakta hai, jo ke traditional Japanese candles se mukhtalif hai kyun ke ye price quotes ka zyada smooth aur averaged value dikhata hai. Heiken Ashi ka istemal technical analysis ka process simplify kar deta hai aur trading decisions ki accuracy ko bhi bohot behtar banata hai.

Is chart par Triangular Moving Average (TMA) linear channel indicator bhi use kiya gaya hai, jo ke Moving Average par mabni current support aur resistance lines ko dikhata hai. Ye indicator currency pair ki movement ke relevant boundaries ko dikhata hai, jo trading mein madadgar sabit hoti hain. Aik aur signal filtering ke liye aur trading decision lene ke liye RSI oscillator bhi use hota hai, jo asset ke overbought aur oversold zones ko indicate karta hai.

Chart par jo situation dekh rahe hain, usmein Heikin Ashi candles blue color ki hain, jo ke price movement ke northward jaane ko dikhata hai. Market quotes ne linear channel ki lower boundary (red dashed line) ke neeche cross kiya, lekin minimum point tak pohanchne ke baad ye wahan se bounce karke dobara channel ki middle line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf wapas aayi. Filtering signal basement indicator RSI (14) bhi buy signal ko confirm kar raha hai, kyun ke iski curve bhi upar ki taraf point kar rahi hai aur overbought level se kaafi door hai.

In tamam baaton ko madde nazar rakhte hue, sirf buying ko relevant samjha ja raha hai, isliye hum long position open karte hain, aur expect karte hain ke ye instrument upper channel boundary (blue dashed line) ki taraf move karega, jo ke price level 1.09939 par located hai.

Is haftay ke douran Euro mein thori si recovery dekhi gayi, aur iska rate 1.11 level ko chhoo gaya. Magar yeh harkat kuch khaas nahi thi, aur price action mein bohat zyada shor sharaba tha. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke jab ke Federal Reserve se ummed hai ke woh jald hi interest rates mein kami karain ge, wahan 1.12 mark ke bilkul upar aik significant resistance hai. Is barrier ko todna kaafi mehnat talab hoga, jo ke yeh bata sakta hai ke euro qareebi future mein sideways trading kare. Agar market 1.10 level se neeche toot jaye, tou hum 200-week EMA ka test dekhein ge, aur uske baad 1.09 support level ki taraf movement ho sakti hai.
Dusri taraf, agar euro resistance ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai, tou isko 1.1240 level ke upar break karne ke liye kai koshishain lag sakti hain. Yeh area is liye important hai ke 2022 ke aghaz mein yahan se aik bara sell-off hua tha. Federal Reserve aur European Central Bank ke interest rate decisions ke saath, market ki harakat in policies ke natayij per mabni hogi. Abhi tak Federal Reserve ke expected rate cuts ki tadad ka koi theek andaza nahi hai, aur traders September mein Federal Reserve ke faislay ke baad wali press conference ka ghor se intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar Jerome Powell ke bayanat ka.

Filhaal, euro us trading range ke qareeb hai jismein yeh kayi saalon se hai. Mojooda technical aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hue, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke significant gains tab tak nahi ho sakte jab tak economic conditions ya policy mein koi bara tabdeeli na aaye. Filhaal, euro resistance levels aur market ki ehtiyat se mushkil mein rahe ga, aur trading ke lehaz se sakhtiyan jhelta rahe ga.

Yeh pair haal hi mein 1.1060 ke round-level support se aik achi comeback kar chuka hai. Yeh rebound is baat ki nishani hai ke investors Euro ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein mazid support dene ki koshish kar rahe hain. Magar, is resurgence ke bawajood, Euro abhi bhi doosri badi currencies se peeche hai, jabke market sentiment bohot ehtiyaat pasand ho raha hai. Yeh umeed barh rahi hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) September mein ek baar phir se interest rates mein kami kar sakta hai, jo Euro ki underperformance ka sabab ban rahi hai.
US Economy ki Kamzori aur ECB ke Isharay EUR/USD Outlook ko Shakal De Rahe Hain

Haal hi ke data ne yeh darshaaya hai ke March tak ke liye US mein job growth pehle se estimate ki gayi tadad se kafi kamzor rahi hai. Iske ilawa, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims mein izafa bhi labor market ki thandak ka ishara de raha hai. Sath hi, US Manufacturing PMI mein girawat bhi potential economic slowdowns ko darsha rahi hai. Yeh tamaam factors mil kar market mein yeh speculation mazid barhati hain ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September tak rate cuts ka silsila shuru kar sakta hai. Halanke USD ne apne year-to-date low se ek rebound dikhaya hai, lekin in zabardast economic concerns ke darmiyan yeh recovery bhi overshadow ho gayi, jo ke Euro/USD pair ko thori si support de raha hai, bawajood iske ke Eurozone PMI data mixed raha.

ECB ke July ke policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting yeh dekhne ke liye aik acha waqt hoga ke abhi tak ka monetary policy kaafi hai ya nahi. ECB Governing Council ke member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko hasil karne ka yaqeen diya hai, magar economic uncertainties ko bhi tasleem kiya hai. Unho ne is baat ka bhi ishara diya ke wo September mein ek aur interest rate cut par baat karne ke liye tayar hain. Is liye, EUR/USD mein koi bhi upward movement resistance ka shikar ho sakta hai, halanke Greenback ke hawale se bearish sentiment Euro ko kuch support de sakta hai.

Euro ke Mazboot August Gains ko Pullback ka Khatra

Yeh pair November 2022 ke baad apni taqatwar tareen single-month performance kar raha hai, jisme Euro ne sirf August mein 3.1% se zyada surge dikhayi hai. Halanke Friday ko ek technical pullback dekha gaya, Euro ne apni mazbooti ka saboot diya, chaar haftay tak lagaatar gains hasil kiye aur 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.1089 ke upar trade karta raha. Yeh performance Euro ki taqat ko dikhati hai, bawajood iske ke market mein broader volatility hai.

Bullish trend ke bawajood, bearish pullback ka risk ab bhi mojood hai. Pair ka mojooda momentum challenges ka samna kar sakta hai, aur agar upward drive kamzor padti hai tou 20-day EMA 1.1103 ki taraf girawat ho sakti hai. Traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur reversal ya consolidation ke signs ko dekhte rehna chahiye.

ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki U.S. labor market ke ek aur weak report ne U.S. currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, U.S. dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai.
Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - U.S. trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.
EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new U.S. inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna bohat effective strategy hai, especially jab resistance aur support levels ko identify

### EUR/USD Ka Taja Halaat

EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko ucha chada, jab markets ne Greenback ko becha. Ab markets risk-on position mein hain kyunke Fed ke rate cut ke ummed barh gayi hain. US jobs data market ki movement ko dominate kar raha hai, aur investors NFP ke intezar mein hain.

### Technical Analysis

EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko ek rebound dekha, jab recent selloff ke baad 1.1050 se technical support mila. Halankeh midweek mein price action upar ki taraf tha, phir bhi yeh pair 1.1100 ke handle ke neeche atka hua hai. US jobs data is haftay ka key focus bana rahega, khaaskar Friday ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) ke qabul se pehle.

### European Data

European Retail Sales is haftay ke EU side se ek hi ahem data print hai. Thursday ko, pan-EU Retail Sales figures July mein 0.1% YoY recover hone ki ummed hai, jo pehle -0.3% contraction ke muqablay mein behtar hai.

### US Data

US JOLTS Job Openings July mein expectation se kam rahe, 7.673 million available jobs add hue, jabke forecast 8.1 million tha. Pehle mahine ke revised 7.91 million ke muqablay mein yeh kam hai. Federal Reserve (Fed) se ummed hai ke wo September 18 ko interest rates cut karega, aur markets 50 bps cut ke bets mein hain. Rate markets ab bhi 2024 ke end tak 100 bps ke total cuts price kar rahe hain, lekin CME’s FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq September ke rate call mein 25 bps cut hone ka 57% chance hai.

### NFP Report

Friday ka US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report badi ahmiyat rakhta hai aur yeh Fed ke pehle rate cut se pehle ka aakhri key US labor data hai. NFP ka print market expectations ko determine karega, aur investors ke liye ek naye rate-cutting cycle ka shuruat is mahine ke liye fully priced in hai.

### EUR/USD Price Forecast

Fiber ne phir se short-term technical barriers ko face kiya hai, lekin bidders bullish chart paper ko hold karne ke liye koshish kar rahe hain. EUR/USD ne pichle hafte ek 13-month high ko cross kiya tha, aur ab Greenback flows mein near-term pullback dekhne ko mil raha hai.

Pair ab bhi 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar trade kar raha hai jo 1.0845 par hai. Halankeh bullish territory mein hai, EUR/USD ab bhi bearish pullback ka samna kar raha hai, aur shorts ne targets 50-day EMA ke just upar 1.0956 ke aas-paas rakhe hain