یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Euro Nazdeek Muddat Mein 1.1150-1.1100 Tak Wapas Ja Sakta Hai

Dollar Index ne zyada reaction nahi dekha, halan ke mazboot US Consumer Confidence aur Case Shiller data release hui thi. Immediate support 100.5 par hai, jo ke agar hold hota hai toh 101-101.50 ki taraf bounce back produce kar sakta hai. Euro nazdeek muddat mein 1.1150-1.11 tak wapas ja sakta hai jab tak ke yeh 1.12 se neeche rahe. USDJPY ko 145-146 se upar rise karna hoga taake phir se bullish ban sake, jabke EURJPY kuch arsay ke liye 160-164 ke beech range mein reh sakta hai. Pound is waqt hamari mentioned resistance 1.3250 ke neeche acha hold kar raha hai, aur jab tak is par ek strong break nahi aata, yeh 1.31 ya usse neeche gir sakta hai. Aussie crucial level 0.68 ke ird gird oscillate kar raha hai, jisse agar break hota hai toh yeh 0.6850 tak ja sakta hai. Abhi ke levels par price action ko gaur se dekhen. USDCNY ko 7.12 ke upar sustain karna hoga taake yeh 7.18 tak wapas rise kar sake. EURINR agle kuch sessions mein 93-92 tak wapas gir sakta hai jab tak yeh 94 se neeche hai. USDINR nazdeek muddat ke liye 84.00-83.75 ke region mein trade karta reh sakta hai.

US Treasury yields bounce par hold kar rahe hain. Halan ke resistances upside ko cap kar sakte hain agar yeh aur barhte hain. Broader trend neeche hai, aur yields dubara se lower reverse ho sakte hain. German yields ek corrective rise par hain. Aage move karne ki jagah hai jab tak ke overall downtrend resume hoti hai aur yields phir se gir jati hain. 10Yr GoI rise karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Ahem resistances aage hain jo rise ko restrict karenge aur yields ko dubara neeche le ja sakte hain.

Dow Jones aur Nifty ke paas 41800-42000 aur 25500 tak rise karne ka scope hai jab tak support 40800 aur 24500 par hai. DAX resistance ke upar breach karne ke signs de raha hai aur mazeed upside target kar raha hai. Nikkei ek narrow range mein stuck hai lekin iske paas scope hai ke eventually upper end of the range ko break kar sake. Shanghai 2840 ke upar hover kar raha hai lekin outlook ab bhi bearish hai, aur 2800 tak girne ka chance hai.

Crude prices Tuesday ko sharply gir gayi jab Goldman Sachs ne apni 2025 Brent crude forecast $82 per barrel se kam karke $77 per barrel kar di lekin immediate supports hain jo hold kar sakte hain aur bounce back produce kar sakte hain. Gold, Silver aur Copper mein follow through rise ki kami hai lekin ab bhi 2600, 31-31.50 aur 4.4 tak rise karne ka scope hai. Natural gas gir raha hai lekin downside 2.0-1.9 tak limited ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Agar aur aage dekha jaye, EUR/USD apna 2024 ka peak 1.1201 (26 August) test kar sakta hai, jo ke 2023 ke high 1.1275 (18 July) se pehle hai, aur 1.1300 round level se pehle hai.



Pair ka agla downward objective weekly low 1.0881 (8 August) hai, jo ke critical 200-day SMA 1.0850 se pehle hai aur weekly low 1.0777 (1 August) se pehle hai. Yahan se, low 1.0666 (26 June) May bottom 1.0649 (1 May) se pehle aata hai.

Bari tasveer dekhi jaye toh, pair ka upward trend us waqt tak continue karna chahiye jab tak yeh crucial 200-day SMA ke upar rahe.

Ab tak, four-hour chart upper end of the current range mein ek side-lined theme dikhata hai. Initial resistance 1.1201 par hai, phir 1.1275 par. Iske bajaye, immediate support 1.1098 par hai, jo 55-SMA se 1.1095 par reinforced hai, aur phir 1.0949 par. Relative strength index (RSI) 59 ke ird gird stable dikhai diya.

Speculators ke darmiyan bullish sentiment. Iske darmiyan, commercial traders (hedge funds) ne apni net short positions maintain ki, contracts multi-week highs tak pohnch gaye. EUR/USD review ke dauran ek strong rebound shuru kiya, psychological 1.1000 barrier ko decisively break kiya aur naye yearly highs set kiye, jo ke Greenback ke renewed aur significant decline se driven tha.

Aage dekhte hue, Germany is haftay ke calendar mein spotlight mein hoga, jisme Retail Sales, advanced Inflation Rate, aur labour market report ka publication shamil hai. Broader Eurozone mein, flash Inflation Rate bhi tawajju kheenchayegi.

Tuesday ko pehle, Germany ka final Q2 GDP Growth Rate flat YoY aaya, aur pehle quarter ke muqable mein 0.1% contract hua. Iske ilawa, Consumer Confidence September ke mahine ke liye -22.0 par worse ho gayi, GfK ke mutabiq.

EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka jaiza lene par, filhaal price 1.1169 ke aas-paas chal rahi hai. Aaj bearish trend ne price ko 1.1149 tak gira diya hai. Agar ye level break hota hai, to hum jaldi se 1.1099 area tak gir sakte hain. Lekin, ye abhi door hai aur bears ka raasta mushkil ho sakta hai. Jab hum upar jayenge, tab hum 11th figure ke middle ke neeche bhi gir sakte hain. Aakhir mein, ek bade correction ka samna karna pad sakta hai mahine ke end tak. Hafte ke dauran, U.S. se aane wale news price ke reaction ko 1.1199 ke aas-paas influence karenge. Ye level pair ke liye strong resistance hai, aur agar bulls isko break nahi karte, to ek reversal aa sakta hai.

EUR/USD pair dheere dheere 1.1199 ke kareeb aata ja raha hai. Halanki recent four-hour candlesticks red hue hain, moving average line abhi bhi green hai, jo growth ko indicate karta hai. Price shayad apne upward movement ke end ke nazdeek hai aur decline ki taraf shift kar sakti hai. EUR/USD pair 1.1199 se niche gir gaya hai bina resistance ko break kiye. Yeh level intense, psychological, aur rounded hai. Aise levels ko aam taur par kai baar test kiya jata hai, aur agar upward break nahi hota, to price generally down ho jati hai. Pair ne daily candle ke high ko update nahi kiya hai, jo decline ko 1.1149 aur 1.1129 ki taraf indicate karta hai. Friday ko Powell ke speeches ke baad price mein uchaal aaya. EUR/USD chart ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke pullback shuru ho gaya hai. Price shayad 1.1149 level ko test karne pahuchegi.

Maine 1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte hue

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal mai thoda hairan hua jab euro/dollar ke jode ne baad ke karobar me ooper ki taraf raftar hasil karna shuru kar diya. Mai tawaqqo kar raha tha keh qimat ek nayi bulandi tak pahunch jayegi, lekin yah ulat gayi aur wapas mukhalif simt me chali gayi.
Natije ke taur par, Euro ek nayi bulandi tak pahunchne me nakam raha, jabkeh Bartanwi pound ek nayi bulandi par pahunch gaya.
Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.1135 ki satah tak gir jayega, jahan long positions par gaur kiya ja sakta hai. Is dauran, behtar yahi hoga keh aap filhal sambhal kar rahein kiyunkeh tejarati sargarmi ab bhi kafi sust hai.
Mujhe short ya long positions ke liye koi shart nazar nahin aati. Macroeconomic calendar me aisi koi aham khabar nahin hai jo market ke jazbat par gahra asar dal sake, kal ke liye sirf GDP data sceduled hai. Jumah mahine ka aakhri karobari din hai, lehaza hafte ke aakhir tak market me utar-chadhaw badhne ka imkan hai.

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon. EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.
Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge.
Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko further fuel kar sakta hai, jise naye buyers existing upward pressure ko add karte hain.
Summary yeh hai ke price ka 100-period SMA ke upar hona weekly chart par, aur positive oscillator readings ke sath, currency pair ke liye strong bullish momentum ka indication hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke upward pressure likely hai ke continue rahega, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators dono ke sath well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai. Traders aur investors isse bullish signal ke roop mein dekhenge, jo continued buying aur near term mein further price appreciation ki taraf le ja sakta hai

Aaj ke trade ke doran, price ne giraawat dekhi aur red channel ke neeche close hui jab ke price channels ki middle lines perfectly aligned thi. Pichlay do hafton ke price movement ko dekhne ke baad ye wazeh hota hai ke red channel price ke liye ek strong resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Iss mahine, price ne monthly pivot level ke upar aur rising red channel ke andar trading start ki, magar phir giraawat hui aur dono toot gaye. Jab blue channel line se support mili, price wapas upar gayi aur dubara monthly pivot level ke upar set ho gayi. Jab price ne neeche girne ki koshish ki, to red channel line se resistance ka samna kiya aur monthly pivot level se support mili. Agle haftay tak, price red channel ke andar trading karte huay upward trend follow kar sakti hai. Ek aur mumkinat ye hai ke price monthly pivot level tak gire aur phir wapas upar chale jaye. Hum agle haftay ke liye kuch mukhtalif levels par trading ka focus kar sakte hain.

Agar price red channel line ko touch kare aur phir neeche wapas aaye, to sell position enter karna mumkin hai. Currency ko tab khareeda ja sakta hai jab wo monthly pivot level ke neeche gire aur phir wapas upar aaye. Agar price 1.1050 ke upar stable ho jaye, jo ke ek monthly resistance level hai, to ye bhi buying ka acha waqt ho sakta hai. Jab price gire aur red channel line se support mile, to ye blue channel ko upward break karne ki koshish karegi. Do trading levels aaj aur kal gold trade karne ke liye dastiyab hain. Is waqt price channel ko break nahi kar rahi aur ek price peak ne usay weekly pivot point tak le aya hai. Ye yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke selling level current candle ke lowest price se neeche hai.

Mere subah ke forecast mein, main ne 1.1153 level par dhyan diya aur is par base karke market entry decisions plan kiye. 5-minute chart dekhte hain aur dekhenge kya hua. Niche girawat to hui, lekin is level par koi test ya false breakout formation nahi hui. Low volatility ke wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi mile. Phir bhi, technical picture ko din ke doosre hissa ke liye thoda revise kiya gaya.

**Long Positions Open Karne Ke Liye EUR/USD:**

Germany ke GDP figures economists ke forecasts se milte hain, aur report disappointing thi, lekin isne euro par minimal pressure dala, kyunki preliminary data pehle hi GDP contraction ko indicate kar raha tha. Din ke doosre hissa mein zyada activity ki ummeed hai, jaise ke U.S. consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 bade U.S. cities ke home price index ke data aane wale hain. Consumer confidence ka girna euro ko support kar sakta hai, lekin agar indicator barhta hai, jo current conditions ke under possible hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jiska faida main uthane ka plan kar raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par decline ke baad false breakout hota hai, to long positions kholne ke liye suitable condition milti hai, jisme euro ke upar aane aur bullish trend ke strengthen hone ki ummeed hai, aur monthly high 1.1199 par wapas aane ki expectation hai. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko upar le ja sakta hai, jahan 1.1237 test karne ka chance hoga. Final target 1.1274 hai, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD 1.1153 ke around significant activity ke bina decline hota hai, to sellers ko larger correction ka mauka milega. Is case mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke next support level par false breakout ke baad enter karunga. Additionally, 1.1107 se rebound par long positions open karne ka plan hai, jisme din ke andar 30-35 point upward correction target karunga.

**Short Positions Open Karne Ke Liye EUR/USD:**

Sellers bhi wait-and-see approach par hain, Germany ke data par thoda react kiya hai. Agar din ke doosre hissa mein euro upar aata hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe sellers 1.1199 ke resistance par hi nazar aane ki ummeed hai, jo aaj tak nahi pahuncha. Is level par false breakout short positions open karne ka mauka dega, jiska target 1.1153 support hoga, jahan moving averages, jo bulls ko favor karte hain, thoda upar hain. Agar is range ke neeche breakout aur consolidation hota hai, aur downward retest hota hai, to ek aur selling point milega, jahan movement 1.1130 ki taraf hoga, jahan mujhe bulls ka zyada active response expect hai. Final target 1.1107 hai, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak U.S. economic data ke bawajood upar jaata hai aur 1.1199 par bears nahi milte, jo rule out nahi kiya ja sakta, to buyers initiative wapas le sakte hain, aur monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko further increase karne ka mauka milega. Is case mein, main selling ko 1.1237 ke next resistance test karne tak postpone karunga. Wahan bhi sell karne ka plan hai, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main 1.1274 se rebound par short positions open karne ka plan bhi kar raha hoon, jiska target 30-35 point downward correction hoga.

EUR/USD ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum!
Euro/dollar ka joda ab bhi 1.11 ke ird-gird kuch durusti dikha sakta hai, jiske bad 1.13 ke qarib dhakka laga sakta hai aur fir ek lambi girawat ho sakti hai. Halankeh, yah scenario bahut hi mushkil hai aur abhi ke liye sirf ek khakah hai, kiyunkeh kal hamein koi wazeh jawab nahin mila. Halankeh bade khiladi ahistah-ahistah farokht ki positions jama kar rahe hain, mai abhi bhi euro/dollar ki jodi par farokht ki positions kholne se pahle ab bhi unchai ka intezar kar raha hun. Maujudah kami ka kam az kam hadaf 1.1130 ke qarib hai. Mai 1.1128-1.1131 ki hadd ke andar pahle kharidari ke orders par gaur karne ki mansubah bandi kar raha hun. Kisi bhi surat me, chunkeh koi reports nahin hain, lehaza mujhe lagta hai keh ise farokht karna bahut jaldi hai, jabkeh kharidne ke mauqe abhi bhi nahin hain.

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal mai thoda hairan hua jab euro/dollar ke jode ne baad ke karobar me ooper ki taraf raftar hasil karna shuru kar diya. Mai tawaqqo kar raha tha keh qimat ek nayi bulandi tak pahunch jayegi, lekin yah ulat gayi aur wapas mukhalif simt me chali gayi.
Natije ke taur par, Euro ek nayi bulandi tak pahunchne me nakam raha, jabkeh Bartanwi pound ek nayi bulandi par pahunch gaya.
Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.1135 ki satah tak gir jayega, jahan long positions par gaur kiya ja sakta hai. Is dauran, behtar yahi hoga keh aap filhal sambhal kar rahein kiyunkeh tejarati sargarmi ab bhi kafi sust hai.
Mujhe short ya long positions ke liye koi shart nazar nahin aati. Macroeconomic calendar me aisi koi aham khabar nahin hai jo market ke jazbat par gahra asar dal sake, kal ke liye sirf GDP data sceduled hai. Jumah mahine ka aakhri karobari din hai, lehaza hafte ke aakhir tak market me utar-chadhaw badhne ka imkan hai.

Filhaal, daily timeframe par EUR/USD price action yeh darshata hai ke buyers control mein hain. Price Upper Bollinger Bands ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, khaaskar 1.1028 aur 1.1030 ke beech. Buyers is level ko todne ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur Monday ke trading session mein breakout ka optimistic nazariya hai. Aaj ke trading session ke end par ek strong bullish candle ka formation further upward movement ki ummeed dilaata hai.

Agar buyers Upper Bollinger Bands ko todne mein kamiyab hote hain, to agla major target sellers ki supply resistance area hoga, jo 1.1100 se 1.1105 ke beech hai. Yeh level historically sellers ke liye ek bada rukawat bana hua hai.

Agle Monday ko, humein sellers se kuch resistance dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo bearish correction ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Aise mein, price nearest buyer support area 1.1015 se 1.1013 tak gir sakti hai. Agar yeh support level mazboot bana rehta hai, to buyers phir se control mein aa sakte hain aur price ko upar push kar sakte hain, target karte hue resistance area 1.1043 se 1.1045 tak. Agar yeh resistance level bhi breach hota hai, to further bullish movement sellers ki supply resistance area 1.1100 se 1.1105 tak extend ho sakti hai.

H4 Timeframe aur Moving Averages Analysis:

Daily analysis ke ilawa, main EUR/USD pair ko H4 timeframe par 21-period aur 34-period moving averages ke saath bhi dekh raha hoon. Filhaal, price dono moving averages ke upar trade kar rahi hai, jo ek bullish trend ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, price ne 1.1047 par ek resistance level ko approach kiya hai, jo aage ki upward movement ko rok sakta hai.

Is situation ko dekhte hue, main samajhta hoon ke thodi correction ka intezaar karna behtar hoga pehle buy orders enter karne se. Correction ke baad entry point zyada favorable ho sakta hai, jo successful trade ke chances ko barha dega.

Explanation:
Current Trend aur Resistance Levels: Price movement yeh indicate karti hai ke buyers filhaal price ko upar push kar rahe hain lekin significant resistance levels ka samna kar rahe hain. Key resistances ko monitor karna zaroori hai for possible reversal ya continuation of the trend.
Potential Scenarios: Yeh bullish scenario (agar buyers resistance todte hain) aur bearish scenario (agar sellers resistance bana rehte hain) ko outline karta hai, jo market movements ke potential view ko balance karta hai.
Support Levels: Support levels ko identify karna crucial hai kyunki yeh indicate karte hain ke price decline par wapas kahaan bounce kar sakti hai, jo traders ke liye informed decisions banane mein madadgar hai.
Moving Averages ka Role: Moving averages ka use trend aur potential entry points ko identify karne mein hota hai, jo buy ya sell karne ke liye price action ko in averages ke saath dekh kar suggest karta hai.

Trade Strategy: Patience par emphasis diya gaya hai, jo ke trade enter karne se pehle correction ka intezaar karna successful trading ke liye zaroori hai. Yeh trading psychology aur strategy development ka ek key principle hai.

اگست 28 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

یورو 1.1140 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہوتا جا رہا ہے، مارلن آسیلیٹر کمزور ضرورت سے زیادہ خریدی ہوئی حالتوں کے علاقے سے ریورس کرنے کے لیے جدوجہد کر رہا ہے۔ یوروپی سنٹرل بینک کے اجلاس سے پہلے قیاس آرائی پر مبنی اقدام کے طور پر 1.1280 پر قیمت کا بریک آؤٹ اب بھی ممکن ہے، لیکن اس کے نتیجے میں آسیلیٹر کے ساتھ اختلاف بھی ہو سکتا ہے۔



لیکن فی الحال، قیمت کے کچھ دنوں کے لیے 1.1085-1.1140 کی حد میں جانے کا تھوڑا سا زیادہ امکان ہے، جہاں یہ آسیلیٹر کی ریڈنگ کے مطابق زیادہ آرام دہ حالت میں ہو سکتی ہے۔



٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر اتار چڑھاؤ کی حد کو کم کرتا ہے، قیمت کو متوازن حالت میں لاتا ہے۔ تیزی کے جذبات کو کم کرنے کے لیے، قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے، 1.1140 کی سطح کے نیچے آنی چاہیے۔ اگر قیمت 1.1140 سے اوپر رہتی ہے تو 1.1280 تک بڑھنے کا امکان بڑھ جائے گا۔

.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

EUR/USD ne Monday ko 1.1200 ka level capture karne mein kamiyabi hasil nahi ki, kyun ke markets ne risk flows ko kam kar diya hai. Pichle haftay ke blustery showing ke baad, economic calendar itna garam nahi lag raha. EU inflation aur US PCE inflation is haftay ke aakhir mein data docket par dominate karenge.

EUR/USD ne apne recent gains Monday ko wapas le liye, 1.1200 se neeche aa gaya kyun ke traders ne Dollar-negative flows ko thoda slowdown kiya, jis ne Fiber ko pichle 13 mahino mein apni highest bids tak pohnchaya tha. Market risk appetite abhi tak stable hai, lekin Greenback par pressure kam hua hai jab investors ne is haftay ke key inflation figures ke liye intezar shuru kiya hai.

Preliminary EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation Friday ko release hone wali hai, aur us se pehle economic calendar mein kuch khaas nahi hai. Pan-EU core HICP inflation forecast hai ke August mein 2.9% se 2.8% tak neeche aa sakti hai.

Is trading haftay mein zyada activity expected nahi hai. Q2 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures Thursday ko aa rahe hain, lekin expected hai ke ye steady 2.8% par annualized basis par rahi gi. Friday ka din markets ke liye khaas ho sakta hai, jab ke US core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (PCE) inflation ka July print 0.2% MoM par stable rehne ki umeed hai. YoY PCE inflation figure bhi 2.6% se barh kar 2.7% hone ki umeed hai, lekin investors ko yakin hai ke inflation ne Fed ke 2% target ke qareeb kaafi progress kar li hai, jo ke pehli rate cut ke liye September 18 ko raasta khol sakta hai.

Monday ko kya hua?
US Durable Goods Orders July mein 9.9% MoM ke surprising rally ke saath barh gayi, jo ke forecasted 4.0% se kaafi upar thi aur pichle mahine ki revised -6.9% contraction ko mukammal tor par reverse kar diya.

Durable Goods Orders mein is upswing ke bawajood, kuch trepidation ab bhi hai; Transportation spending ko exclude karne par, Durable Goods Orders asal mein -0.2% MoM contract hui, jo ke forecasted 0.0% se bura tha aur pichle mahine ki tepid 0.1% jo ke revised down kar ke 0.5% ki gayi thi, se bhi neeche thi.



EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD apne best single-month performance ke pace par hai since November 2022, August ke mahine mein 3.1% se zyada barh chuka hai. Monday ke technical exhaustion pullback ke bawajood, Fiber ne chaar consecutive trading weeks mein ground gain kiya hai, aur 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.0832 se kaafi upar bid kar raha hai.

Healthy bid hone ke bawajood, Fiber ek bearish pullback ke exposure mein hai, aur agar topside momentum kamzor ho gaya to price action wapas se 50-day EMA 1.0925 tak gir sakta hai.

European session ke shuru hone se pehle, EURUSD ke four-hour timeframe par market sentiment dollar ko bechne ki taraf hai, jo ke establish trend ke mutabiq hai. Magar ab ye zahir ho raha hai ke market ek intizaar mode mein chali gayi hai, agle round ke news ka intezar kar rahi hai jo ke USD ke hawale se hogi. Market ke log yeh samajhna chahte hain ke Fed interest rate ko 25 ya 50 basis points se kam karegi ya nahi. Is sawal ka jawab kuch had tak Friday ke personal spending statistics par depend karega, jo ke Fed ke liye ek aham inflation indicator hai. Aaj price 1.1150 ke aas-paas fluctuate kar sakti hai, aur ho sakta hai trend line 1.1140 tak retrace kare. Agar price is se neeche chali jati hai, to filhal aur koi downside potential nazar nahi aata. Is waqt hum statistics ka intezar karein.

Market ke halat ko dekhte hue, yeh bhi zaroori hai ke investors ke mood aur market ki overall sentiment ko samjha jaye. Agar personal spending data strong aata hai, to Fed ka interest rate cut karna mushkil ho sakta hai, jo ke dollar ki strength ko barha sakta hai. Lekin agar data weak hota hai, to Fed ka interest rate cut karna zyada mumkin hai, jo ke dollar ki value ko girane ki wajah ban sakta hai.

Market mein is waqt uncertainty hai aur yeh dekhna hoga ke aane wale dino mein news ka kya impact hota hai. Short-term traders ke liye important hai ke woh price movements aur technical indicators par nazar rakhein, taake woh timely decisions le sakein. Yeh waqt trading strategies ko adjust karne aur market ki dynamics ko samajhne ka hai. Agar price 1.1140 ke niche chali jati hai, to dekhna hoga ke aage kya hota hai aur apni strategies accordingly update karni hongi.

time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain! Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.

Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakt

Hamari guftagu EUR/USD price action assessment ke haalaat par markooz hai. Kal ke trading main, EURUSD currency pair ne bearish movement show kiya aur D1 time frame par ek bearish candle form kiya. Jab market subah band hui, tab EURUSD ka price 1.1164 tha, jo ke pichle din ke opening price se kam tha. H1 time frame par candle ka position MA 24 line ke neeche hai aur MA 24 line se door move karne ki potential rakhta hai. Stochastic indicator 5.3.3 level 20 ke range main hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke seller market ko control karne ki koshish kar raha hai.
Fundamental perspective se dekha jaye, to USD index kal ke trading main ab bhi strong dikhai de raha hai aur dheere dheere majboot ho raha hai. Isliye technical aur fundamental analysis ke basis par aaj EURUSD currency pair ke bearish trend continue hone ki ummeed hai. Hum is pair main sell opportunities dekh sakte hain, magar mm (money management) ko sahi se implement karna zaroori hai taake account ki resilience barqarar rahe. Mere trading plan ke mutabiq, aaj main 1.1164 par sell order place karunga, profit target 1.1134 par hoga aur stop loss 1.1194 par rakha jayega. Lot volume ko trading account ki resilience ke mutabiq adjust karenge. Ye trading journal update hai jo main subah share kar raha hoon, ummeed hai ke yeh useful aur samajhne layak hoga. Meri advice yeh hai ke careful raha jaye, halanke position candlestick ke upar hai, lekin MA standard level settings ka hai, jo 50, 100, ya 200 se bara nahi hai. Price indicator ko break karne ka potential bhi rakhti hai. Down signal ke sath agree karte hue bhi, stop loss zaroor lagaye, mere khayal se previous highest price ke upar honi chahiye. Aaj bhi price upar move karne ke chances hain, kyunki Monday ko price girne ke bawajood, Friday ke market close se niche nahi gayi. Stop Loss ko 1.1200 par rakhe aur closest target support level 1.1130 par set kare. Mere graph, jo stochastic oscillator indicator use karta hai, wo upar ki taraf point kar raha hai aur determination area mein hai aur cloud mein enter nahi hua. Mere opinion main, ab buy transaction open karna sahi waqt hai, jo ke aapke analysis ke opposite hai