xau/usd, gold

Gold prices mein North American trading session ke dauran ek significant izafa dekha gaya, jo zyada tar USA ke employment data ke expectations se kam honay ki wajah se tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke 50 basis point ke rate cut ke imkaan ko barhata hai. US Treasury yields mein kami aur US dollar ka kamzor hona, jo ke gold ke saath inverse correlation rakhta hai, ne bhi prices ke is izafay mein kirdar ada kiya. XAU/USD pair $2,493 par trade kar raha tha, jo ke kam az kam 0.05% ka notable izafa tha. Pura din, gold prices mein fluctuations hui, jahan traders ne profit-taking ki wajah se prices ko temporarily daily low $2,471 tak le jaaya. Lekin, JOLTS report ke release ke baad, jisne job openings mein kami dikhai, gold prices ne kuch losses ko recover kiya. Traders ab Federal Reserve ke 50 basis point ke rate cut ke imkaan se ziada optimistic hain, jahan September meeting mein 43% chance hai ke yeh hike hoga. Agli Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting 17-18 September ko schedule hai. US dollar index (DXY) mein bhi 0.37% ki halka si kami hui, aur yeh 101.38 par tha, jab ke recent recovery ke baad year-to-date lows se thoda upar aaya. Isi dauran, gold traders agle US employment data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jisme ADP national employment change, initial jobless claims, aur nonfarm payrolls reports shamil hain.



Gold prices ne apna uptrend Wednesday ko resume kiya, jo ke "tweezers bottom" chart pattern se support hoti hai. Lekin, buyers ko ek key resistance level ko overcome karna hoga taake year-to-date highs ko retest kar sakein. Momentum indicators ek bullish bias suggest karte hain, lekin buyers ko $2,500 ke upar close karna hoga taake all-time high $2,531 ko target kar sakein, aur phir $2,550 ki taraf barh sakein. Agar yeh level breach ho jata hai, toh $2,600 tak recovery ka imkaan barh sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar XAU/USD $2,500 ke upar hold karne mein nakam hota hai, toh agla support level August 22 low $2,470 par hoga. Mazeed downside pressure ke saath, price $2,431 ke qareebi support, jo ke April 12 high aur 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ke confluence par hai, ko retest kar sakta hai.

Spot prices ne Friday ke shuruati New York session mein ahem $2,510 resistance level ke upar se girawat ka samna kiya. Yeh girawat us waqt hui jab ke United States mein siasi bay yaqeeni barh gayi, jab Vice President Kamala Harris ko Donald Trump ke qiyadat wali Republicans ke khilaf Democratic party ki leader manzoor kiya gaya. President Joe Biden ke re-election race se dastbardaar hone ke baad Harris Democratic nominee ban gayi hain, jis se sarmaayadaron ne siyasi bay yaqeeni ke dour mein sonay ko ek traditional hedge ke taur par talash kiya.



Siyasi Halat aur Maashi Data ke Focus Ke Darmiyan Gold Ki Qeemat Mein Istahkam

Siyasi halat ke bawajood, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers ke dovish bayanaat ke bawajood gold ki performance mein koi khaas izafa nahi dekhne ko mila. September mein rate cuts ki barhti hui tawaqqo bhi gold ki prices ko oopar nahi le ja saki. Guzishta hafte International Monetary Fund (IMF) ne Fed ko mashwara diya tha ke woh 2024 ke akhir tak interest rates mein kami se gurez karein. Is hafte, sarmaayadaron ka dihan ahem U.S. maashi data par hoga, jo ke preliminary S&P Global PMI, Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), aur Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (PCE) ko shaamil karta hai. Agar data tawaqqo se zyada acha hota hai, to rate cut ki umeed kam ho sakti hai aur gold ke faaydo ko chhoti kar sakti hai.

Gold ke daamon par duniya bhar ke masayil ka bhi asar hai. China mein dheemi maashi growth, Russia-Ukraine ke keech meeni lambi ladaai, aur Middle East ke jari conflicts gold ke liye ek haven ke taur par is ke appeal ko barhate hain. Magar, XAU/USD pair ne kamzor follow-through buying dikhayi hai jab tak ke traders U.S. PCE Price Index data ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke Friday ko aane wala hai. Yeh data Fed ke aane wale policy ka rukh dikhaye ga aur gold ke short-term trajectory par asar dalega.

Technical Analysis: Gold Prices ke Liye Ahem Support aur Resistance Levels

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, is hafte ka $2,470 resistance breakpoint se bounce—ahem level jo ke ab 1-hour chart par 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur June-July ke rally ke 50% retracement level ke sath align karta hai—bearish traders ke liye ehtiyaat ka signal hai. Yeh area ek ahem pivot point hai; agar price is level ke neeche break karta hai, to zyada losses ho sakte hain. Dosri taraf, agar $2,530 ke upar breakout hota hai, to gold prices ko $2,550 ke ilaqe tak push kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar spot prices $2,530 mark ke upar move karti hain, to yeh 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ke qareeb $2,515 ka imkaan dikhata hai. Wahan se mazeed movement $2,530 zone tak ho sakti hai aur 78.6% Fibonacci level ke qareeb $2,532 tak pohanch sakti hai, jahan $2,550 ek ahem target hoga.

Gold Analysis

Assalam-o-Alaikum. Aaj humein koi upward rebound nahi dekhne ko mila aur na hi primary support ka test 2560 par hua. Abhi bhi yeh mumkin hai ke price wahan se bounce kare. Yeh bhi samajh mein aata hai ke 2550 ka round level ek additional support ka kaam karta hai agar hum achanak neeche chalay jain. Agar yeh price ko hold nahi karta, to 2555+ ka level, jo flat ka expected lower limit hai, uske baad aayega. Yeh baat toh tay hai ke wo highs 2002 mein finish karenge, lekin yeh dekhna hai ke kya wo wahan se kar paayenge. Andar se dekh sakte hain, lekin sawal yeh hai ke kya wahan se karenge. Bohat log is baare mein guftagu kar chuke hain. Mahine ki schedule ki wajah se participants ko jaldi karne ki zarurat nahi hai.

Zaroori baat yeh hai ke agar sab prices ko chalana hai, lekin current level se 2575 tak pohanchna abhi hal karna baqi hai. Humein abhi bhi tezi se move karna padega, aur continuation down option mere nazdeek zyada karib hai, khaaskar jab ke support do martaba test ho chuka hai, aur yeh us se door nahi jaaye ga. Humari guftagu ke dauran, hum 2570 ke peeche fix hone walay hain. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke jab hum ne pehli dafa aur doosri dafa rebound kiya, to humne 2588 ka resistance draw kiya, kuch touch kiya, aur phir edge se gir gaye. Agla level neeche 2562 hai, jo is level ke neeche hai. Warna, hum bas up aur down ke range mein phas kar reh jayenge.

Kal ki candle ne in levels ko break karne ki koshish ki aur neeche jaari rakha, lekin akhir mein price rebound hua aur monthly pivot level ke upar close hua, jo ke aaj ke upward price movement ka sabab bana. Is ne price bottom ki formation ko confirm kiya aur daily chart par upward trend ka wapas aana, jo aapki trading strategy ke liye ek mazboot reassurance hai.

Gold Price Move

Hum ab gold ke price fluctuations ka analysis explore karenge. Aaj ka trend abhi tak bullish hai, lekin ek pullback ke intezaar mein rahna zaroori hai jo ke ek optimal buy zone aur reversal signal de taake ek acha entry point mil sake. Agar aaj ke din ke aakhri mein price ek critical level se neeche close ho jati hai, to trend bearish ho sakta hai, halan ke kuch log abhi bhi isay upward dekh rahe hain. Margin system ko selling opportunities talash karni padeingi. Main intezaar kar raha hoon ke U.S. dollar broader market mein mazid mazboot ho. XAUUSD ne sale ka ek mauqa 2566.65 ke level par diya, jaise ke one-hour timeframe (TF) mein dikhaya gaya. Agar market conditions badalti hain aur momentum reverse hota hai, to hum 2570.54 par stop-loss hit karenge. Magar agar trend umeed ke mutabiq continue karta hai, to hum position ko partially 2562.76 par close karenge, aur phir mazeed profit-taking ke liye 2558.87 ko target karenge. Baqi position ka aim 2554.98 hoga, jahan trailing stop orders lagaye jayenge taake gains lock ho sakein.



Aaj growth dobara se shuru hui magar 2575.00 par ruk gayi, jis se price 2564.25 tak dobara dip hui. Agar M15 dobara se bullish ho jata hai aur aaj ke high 2575.00 ko cross kar leta hai, to ye H1 par bullish trend ko barqarar rakhega aur price ko 2587.91 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai. Agar M15 bearish rehta hai, to price mazeed gir sakti hai, 2559.33 ko tor kar H1 pivot zone 2563.90 ke qareeb pohonch sakti hai, jahan se rebound ka imkaan hai. Agar pivot break hota hai, to H1 bearish ho jayega aur price neeche chali jaye gi. Is zone se rebound growth ko spark kar sakta hai jo ke 2585.51 ke high tak pahunchaye ga, aur H1 ko bullish rakhega, jise 2587.91 tak push karega. Agar ye level break hota hai, to uptrend mazeed extend karega, aur agar break nahi hota, to phir se girawat ho sakti hai. Agar H1 pivot break hota hai, to price 2546.00 ki taraf gir sakti hai, aur mazeed girawat bullish H4 structure ko challenge karegi. Ye shift tab hoga jab price H1 pivot zone 2557.59 aur 2508.77 ke darmiyan close hogi.

Gold Price Move Hum ab gold ke price fluctuations ka analysis explore karenge. Aaj ka trend abhi tak bullish hai, lekin ek pullback ke intezaar mein rahna zaroori hai jo ke ek optimal buy zone aur reversal signal de taake ek acha entry point mil sake. Agar aaj ke din ke aakhri mein price ek critical level se neeche close ho jati hai, to trend bearish ho sakta hai, halan ke kuch log abhi bhi isay upward dekh rahe hain. Margin system ko selling opportunities talash karni padeingi. Main intezaar kar raha hoon ke U.S. dollar broader market mein mazid mazboot ho. XAUUSD ne sale ka ek mauqa 2566.65 ke level par diya, jaise ke one-hour timeframe (TF) mein dikhaya gaya. Agar market conditions badalti hain aur momentum reverse hota hai, to hum 2570.54 par stop-loss hit karenge. Magar agar trend umeed ke mutabiq continue karta hai, to hum position ko partially 2562.76 par close karenge, aur phir mazeed profit-taking ke liye 2558.87 ko target karenge. Baqi position ka aim 2554.98 hoga, jahan trailing stop orders lagaye jayenge taake gains lock ho sakein. **gold.JPG** Aaj growth dobara se shuru hui magar 2575.00 par ruk gayi, jis se price 2564.25 tak dobara dip hui. Agar M15 dobara se bullish ho jata hai aur aaj ke high 2575.00 ko cross kar leta hai, to ye H1 par bullish trend ko barqarar rakhega aur price ko 2587.91 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai. Agar M15 bearish rehta hai, to price mazeed gir sakti hai, 2559.33 ko tor kar H1 pivot zone 2563.90 ke qareeb pohonch sakti hai, jahan se rebound ka imkaan hai. Agar pivot break hota hai, to H1 bearish ho jayega aur price neeche chali jaye gi. Is zone se rebound growth ko spark kar sakta hai jo ke 2585.51 ke high tak pahunchaye ga, aur H1 ko bullish rakhega, jise 2587.91 tak push karega. Agar ye level break hota hai, to uptrend mazeed extend karega, aur agar break nahi hota, to phir se girawat ho sakti hai. Agar H1 pivot break hota hai, to price 2546.00 ki taraf gir sakti hai, aur mazeed girawat bullish H4 structure ko challenge karegi. Ye shift tab hoga jab price H1 pivot zone 2557.59 aur 2508.77 ke darmiyan close hogi.

Gold ke technical analysis ke lehaz se, gold ne ek nayi peak achieve ki hai, aur is baat ka imkaan hai ke price din ke akhir tak aur weekly close tak barhti rahegi.

Is haftay gold ke price ne trading ka aaghaz ek price triangle ke andar kiya, jo ke pichlay do hafton ke dauran price movement ke direction ko represent karti do upward-trending channels se bana tha. Gold ka price neeche gira aur triangle ko downward break kiya, aur uske baad price ne blue channel ke andar trade kiya. Lekin jab price neeche wale channel line aur weekly pivot level ke qareeb pohanchi, to price rebound karte hue wapas upar gaya aur ek nayi resistance area ko touch kiya, jo ke 2613 ka level hai aur blue channel line bhi hai. Yeh area aisa hai jahan se main selling entry lene ki sifarish nahi karta.

Is area ke todne aur mazeed barhne ka imkaan hai aaj ke trading ke dauran.

Economic side se dekha jaye to financial markets abhi bhi US Federal Reserve ke faislay ko evaluate kar rahi hain. Wednesday ko Federal Reserve ne pehli dafa early 2020 ke baad interest rate cut kiya, jo ke expected se zyada tha, yani 50 basis points ka cut kiya gaya, taake girti hui inflation aur labor market ki slow down ko address kiya ja sake. Federal Reserve ke officials yeh bhi expect karte hain ke benchmark interest rate mazeed aadha percentage point ke lehaz se giray gi year ke akhir tak.

Yeh move gold ki demand ko barhane ka sabab banta hai kyunke is se non-yielding assets ko hold karne ki opportunity cost kam hoti hai. Halanki, ek press conference mein, Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne kaha ke US Federal Reserve mazeed monetary policy ko relax karne mein jaldbazi nahi karegi, aur yeh bhi highlight kiya ke federal funds rate ke dot plot forecast ko policy plan ke tor par nahi samjha jana chahiye.

Is analysis ka matlab yeh hai ke gold ki price mazeed barhne ka imkaan rakhti hai, lekin buyers ko current resistance levels aur economic events ka khayal rakhna zaruri hai jab wo koi trade entry ka faisla karein.

GOLD

Sab ko salaam! Aur trading week ka aakhri waqt kuch ghanton mein khatam ho jayega. Lekin himmat na haarein, aage aur waqt hai fatah ke liye. Mubarak ho, gold prices apne tareekhi maqsad ko pohanch gaye hain, aur iske baad aik ajeeb khayal dimaagh mein paida hota hai, ke shayad gold ko qareebi waqt mein neeche giraya jaye, ye mumkin hai. Kyunke northern movement ka koi hadd nahi hai, to qareebi waqt mein izafa ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, lekin yeh yaqini nahi hai.

Market ki soorat-e-haal ko kaise dekhta hoon? Chart par aik kaafi dilchasp platform mojood hai, jo ke price level 1807.89 par hai. Hum is level tak neeche utarney ki umeed rakh sakte hain qareebi waqt mein. Mera khayal hai ke aik bara player waqai is level se khareedari kar sakta hai, butt ko giraya jana chahiye, ab saal ke khatam hone mein kuch he waqt baqi hai, aur yeh kaafi mushkil saal raha hai. Main gold ke prices mein kami ka rukh dekh raha hoon aur agle haftay se kami ki umeed kar raha hoon. Sab ko ehtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye!

Kami ke liye pehla price level 2549.00 hai.

Technically, $2,600 per ounce ka round level tootne ke baad ab yeh buyers ke liye acchi support ban chuka hai. Aaj sellers ne do dafa koshish ki ke gold quotes ko is level ke neeche le jaya jaye, lekin yeh poori girawat khareedari se poori ho gayi. Maloom hota hai ke koi apne long positions ko close karne ka irada nahi rakhta. Ya phir yeh choti si girawat chhote aur short-term buyers ke kharidon ka fixation tha. Humare zigzags abhi tak northern direction mein hain. Halankeh, jaise ke kehte hain, jitna zyada upar utho, utna zyada girne ka chance hota hai.

Technically, main ab bhi gold prices mein aik corrective decrease dekhna chahoon ga. Is ke liye gold quotes ko $2,600 per ounce ke level ke neeche wapas aana hoga. Is surat mein, main samajhta hoon ke aik correction round $2,530 per ounce ke ilaqe tak dekhna mumkin hoga.

Gold Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum. Aaj humein koi upward rebound nahi dekhne ko mila aur na hi primary support ka test 2560 par hua. Abhi bhi yeh mumkin hai ke price wahan se bounce kare. Yeh bhi samajh mein aata hai ke 2550 ka round level ek additional support ka kaam karta hai agar hum achanak neeche chalay jain. Agar yeh price ko hold nahi karta, to 2555+ ka level, jo flat ka expected lower limit hai, uske baad aayega. Yeh baat toh tay hai ke wo highs 2002 mein finish karenge, lekin yeh dekhna hai ke kya wo wahan se kar paayenge. Andar se dekh sakte hain, lekin sawal yeh hai ke kya wahan se karenge. Bohat log is baare mein guftagu kar chuke hain. Mahine ki schedule ki wajah se participants ko jaldi karne ki zarurat nahi hai.

Zaroori baat yeh hai ke agar sab prices ko chalana hai, lekin current level se 2575 tak pohanchna abhi hal karna baqi hai. Humein abhi bhi tezi se move karna padega, aur continuation down option mere nazdeek zyada karib hai, khaaskar jab ke support do martaba test ho chuka hai, aur yeh us se door nahi jaaye ga. Humari guftagu ke dauran, hum 2570 ke peeche fix hone walay hain. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke jab hum ne pehli dafa aur doosri dafa rebound kiya, to humne 2588 ka resistance draw kiya, kuch touch kiya, aur phir edge se gir gaye. Agla level neeche 2562 hai, jo is level ke neeche hai. Warna, hum bas up aur down ke range mein phas kar reh jayenge.

Kal ki candle ne in levels ko break karne ki koshish ki aur neeche jaari rakha, lekin akhir mein price rebound hua aur monthly pivot level ke upar close hua, jo ke aaj ke upward price movement ka sabab bana. Is ne price bottom ki formation ko confirm kiya aur daily chart par upward trend ka wapas aana, jo aapki trading strategy ke liye ek mazboot reassurance hai.

Gold ke haaliya price performance ka tajzia karte hue, hum dekhte hain ke gold ka price barhne ke baad 2600 ke psychological mark ko cross kar gaya aur 2630 ke zone mein ek naye record high ko set kiya. Price movement jo resistance 2613 ke upar gaya tha, filhal abhi bhi upar hai. Yeh price downward correction phase ka samna kar sakta hai, ya phir apni surge ko 2630 ke high levels se bhi aage le ja sakta hai. Agar hum pivot point 2550 aur EMA 50 ke area ko dekhein, jahan price ne niche ki taraf correction kiya hai, to yeh major structure mein higher high - higher low ka condition abhi bhi moujood hai. Kyon ke invalidation level filhal 2540 ke low prices par hai, agar downward correction phase pivot point 2550 ko cross nahi karta, to major structure mehfooz rahega.

Bearish divergence ka signal Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke point of view se zahir ho raha hai, jo ke ek uptrend ka momentum dikhata hai.

Daily time chart par, gold ke price growth ka volume histogram ke level 0 ya positive area ke sath mutabiq nahi hai. 2588 ka chhota area position entrance point ke gird hai. Yeh verify karna zaroori hai ke stochastic indicator ke parameters jo ke 50 aur 20 ke darmiyan hain, cross karte hain ya nahi. Agarche AO indicator histogram negative divergence signal ko develop kar raha hai, lekin yeh kam az kam level 0 ya positive area ke upar hai. Jab price EMA 50 ke qareeb aati hai, to 2630 ke high prices ko profit lene ke liye istemal kiya jata hai aur losses ko reduce karne mein madad mil sakti hai.

Mujhe umeed hai ke hamara commodity instrument, XAUUSD, Monday ko kam az kam 2630 tak barhta rahega. Overbought situation ko reset karne ke liye, uske baad ek flat phase ho sakta hai.

Gold ki spot prices hal hi mein $2,630 per ounce ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hain, jab ke yeh 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) se recover hui hain. Yeh bounce-back us ke baad aaya jab pehle prices mein kafi zyada girawat hui thi, aur traders ne global growth ke concerns ki wajah se market downturn ka reaction diya. Monday ko, gold mein 1.0% se zyada ki girawat hui, jab ke doosri commodities ke sath gold bhi neeche gaya, jab ke economic slowdown ke khauf ne investors ko mehsoos karwaya.

Global economic uncertainty aur additional Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke imkaan ne financial markets par shadow daal di hai, jiske natijay mein gold ek reliable haven ke taur par ubhar ke aaya hai. Jab market volatility tez hoti hai, to gold ka asar ek safe-haven asset ke tor par barhta hai, jo ke prices ko unprecedented levels tak le ja sakti hai.

Rate Cut ki Speculation aur Economic Kamzori se Gold ki Demand Barh Rahi Hai

Market ke tension mein izafa ho gaya jab former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley ne kaha ke aglay hafta tak ek rate cut possible hai. Unka yeh bayan recession ke khauf mein izafa kar raha hai, aur bohat se market participants ko lagta hai ke Federal Reserve jald hi policy-easing cycle ka aghaz karega. Traders ne September ke liye pehle hi 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut ko price in kar liya hai, jab ke November aur December mein mazeed cuts ki umeed hai.

Haal hi mein aane wale disappointing global flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data ne bhi market sentiment ko affect kiya hai. Yeh data poori duniya mein economic conditions ke kamzor honay ko highlight karta hai, khaaskar Eurozone mein, jahan manufacturing sector mein zyada downturn aur service sector mein bhi slowdown nazar aa raha hai. Yeh sab factors gold ki safe-haven demand ko barhawa denge jab recession ka khauf barhta ja raha hai.

Technical Indicators Me Upward Momentum Ko Support Karte Hain

Jab gold prices $2,613 ke low tak gayi, us ke baad ek strong bullish breakout aaya, aur prices mein taqreeban 0.80% ka izafa dekha gaya. Yeh surge dikhata hai ke market participants mein barhawa hai ke Federal Reserve September mein interest rate cuts karegi, khaaskar jab recent soft inflation report ne mazeed pressure dala. Filhal, XAU/USD $2,629 par trade kar raha hai jab ke daily lows $2,622 se recover ho gaya hai.

Technical Indicators Favor Upward Momentum

Gold prices mein bullish trend dikh raha hai, jaisa ke charts par bullish harami pattern ka formation hai. Yeh two-candle configuration ek reversal ka imkaan dikhata hai aur yeh bhi ke buyers abhi bhi market mein dominant hain. Mazeed, momentum indicators, jaise ke Commodity Channel Index (CCI), ne neutral level 50 ko cross kar ke upar chala gaya hai, jo ke aglay dinon mein upward price movement ka ishara de raha hai.

Gold Market Ki Dynamics Ka Jaiza:

XAU/USD pair mein aakhri tezi aur girawat ko kai iktisadi asraat ne shakal di hai. Kal, sone (gold) ne apni ek nayi all-time high tak pohonch gaya, jo ke Federal Reserve ke dovish expectations aur barqarar neeche interest rates ke hawaley se hui. Yeh situation sone ko ek behtar ghair-yielding asset banata hai. Positive U.S. iktisadi data ke bawajood, jisme strong employment figures aur consumer spending shamil hain, dollar kamzor raha, aur apne year-to-date low ke qareeb hi tha. Yeh mahal aam tor par sone mein sarmaiyahkari ki taraf rawaiya rakhta hai, jab dollar kamzor hota hai aur iktisadi bayqaraari hoti hai.

Mazid barhawa U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report hai, jo Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ko asar andaz kar sakti hai. Yeh ek ahem inflation measure hai, aur agar is report se inflation barhnay ki nishaniyan milti hain, to Federal Reserve apna dovish rawaiya dobara soch sakta hai. Filhal, market sentiment ehtiyaat par mabni hai, jab ke tajir PCE data ke hawale se wazeh tafseelat ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Yeh mahal gold ke liye restrained trading environment ka sabab ban raha hai. Natijan, price movements ke lie aglay iktisadi indicators aur Federal Reserve ke bayanaat ko samajhna gold market mein faida uthane ke liye zaroori hai.



Filhal, XAU/USD pair consolidation phase mein hai, jahan yeh ek range $2,654.88 se $2,688.96 ke darmiyan trade kar raha hai. Yeh range ek indecisiveness ki manzarnuma hai, jab gold broader market ke conflicting signals ke darmiyan apni direction talash kar raha hai. Hal hi mein, price ne lower boundary $2,654.88 ko test kiya, jo ke positive U.S. data ke jaari honay ke baad demand ke hawale se tawajjo di gayi. Magar, buyers jaldi se wapas aaye aur price ko approximately $2,677.32 tak barhaya, jo ke recent decline ka 85% retracement hai. Yeh recovery support aur resistance levels ki ahmiyat ko highlight karti hai, jab ke tajir entry aur exit points talash karte hain.

Scalpers ke liye, in levels par focus karna zaroori hai. Short-term traders ko in price fluctuations ke dauran faida uthane ke lie dekhna chahiye. Agar price $2,688.96 ke upar breakout karta hai, to yeh bullish trend ke dobara shuru honay ki nishani ho sakti hai, jo mazid faida ka sabab ban sakti hai jab momentum barhta hai. Dusri taraf, agar price $2,654.88 se neeche jaata hai, to yeh additional selling pressure ko trigger kar sakta hai aur pehlay support levels ko challenge kar sakta hai. Long traders ko breakout ke confirmation ka intezaar karna chahiye pehle positions enter karne se pehle, kyun ke volatility PCE data release ke baad barh sakti hai. Aakhir mein, tajiron ko hooshiyar rehna chahiye aur evolving market conditions ke mutabiq apne aap ko adapt karna chahiye, taki wo XAU/USD pair mein honay walay potential price movements ka faida utha saken.

Gold: Retail trader data dikhata hai ke 49.65% traders net-long hain, jabke short to long traders ka ratio 1.01 to 1 hai. Haqeeqat yeh hai ke traders Jul 19 se net-short hain jab Gold 2,400.62 ke qareeb trade ho raha tha, aur tab se price 2.63% upar gaya hai. Net-long traders ki tadaad kal se 4.59% aur pichle hafte se 0.69% kam hai, jabke net-short traders ki tadaad kal se 17.28% aur pichle hafte se 33.84% zyada hai.

Hum aam tor par crowd sentiment ka ulta view lete hain, aur yeh ke traders net-short hain, yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke Gold prices mazeed barh sakti hain.

Hamare data se yeh maloom hota hai ke ab traders pehli dafa Jul 19, 2024 ke baad Gold ke liye net-short hain jab Gold 2,400.62 ke qareeb trade ho raha tha. Traders kal aur pichle hafte ke muqable mein zyada net-short hain, aur is waqt ka sentiment aur recent tabdeeli humein Gold ke liye mazid bullish contrarian trading bias deta hai.




Gold ne 2024 mein apni behtareen performance dekhi hai aur ek nayi record high $2,483.35 tak pohonch gaya hai. Yeh peela dhatu teen alag alag occasions par $2,480 ke ooper rally karne mein mushkilat ka shikar raha hai, lekin ek analyst kehte hain ke yeh sirf waqt ki baat hai ke yeh kamiyabi se $2,500 ke ooper break karega.

"Metals market iss saal zaroor volatile rahi hai jahan gold, silver, aur copper ne leadership li," Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Company, ne kaha. "Precious aur industrial metals ke liye outlook positive lag raha hai jabke gold aur silver ki demand mein zabardast izafa dekha gaya hai, halaan ke Dr. Copper ne apne aap ko is group se alag kar liya hai."

Bauer ne kaha ke precious metals ke bullish outlook ka ek bara driver yeh hai ke log umeed kar rahe hain ke Fed interest rates cut karega. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq Wall Street ne September mein cut ke liye 100% possibility price ki hai aur "November aur December mein mazeed cuts ke liye lagbhag 80% probabilities hain."

"Tareekhi tor par, commodities ko inflation ke khilaf hedges ke taur par dekha jata hai," unhoon ne kaha. "Magar, U.S. dollar ne bhi in metals ke saath isi duration mein gain kiya hai, halaan ke August mein yeh kuch kamzor par raha hai."

"Jese jese dollar kamzor hota hai, waise waise commodities jese metals aur oil achi performance dikhate hain kyunke inhe zyada quantity mein dollars ke zariye kharida ja sakta hai, aur jinhon ne non-dollar currencies hain, wo apni currencies se zyada dollars kharid sakte hain," unhoon ne izafa kiya. "Yeh sab buniyadi iqtisadi principle of supply and demand par aa jata hai. In teeno metals mein ya to is waqt undersupply hai ya aney wale waqt mein hosakta hai."

Copper ke mamle mein, Bauer ne kaha ke red metal ne May mein apni all-time high touch ki, lekin tab se lagbhag 20% pull back kar gaya. "Demand mein izafa AI chips aur electric vehicle production mein is ke istemal ki wajah se hua, aur COMEX Copper futures ne is saal record level of participation dekha hai jabke market participants ne potential supply lags par ghoor kiya," unhoon ne kaha.

"Magar, technology stocks mein recent selloff aur AI industry ki growth ke bare mein shubahat ne copper ke price ko hard hit kiya," unhoon ne kaha. "China se copper ki demand ka aksar hissa aya hai, aur China ke recent economic data se yeh maloom hota hai ke yeh economy recover nahi kar rahi. Agar China ke weak orders aur demand barqarar rehti hai, toh yeh is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke yeh decline temporary nahi hai."

Sona ki keemat nayay tareen record bulandiyon par phunch gayi hai, taqreeban $2,483 per ounce ke qareeb, jo Federal Reserve ke interest rate mein jald qararat ke expectations ke bharhne se barh rahi hai. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke hal hilafat ne inflation targets ko paanay ki yaqeeniyaat ko izhar kiya, jis ka matlab hai ke 2% ke had tak pohnchnay se pehle daray mein kami ke liye tayyar hain. Is jazbat ko Fed Governor Adriana Kugler ne bhi tasdeeq ki, jo ahtiyati andaz mein inflation ke target levels tak ummid ki bayan kiya.

Market ki reactiyon wazeh hui hain, jahan ke financial markets is saal mein mazeed rate cuts ki umeed laga rahe hain. CME ki FedWatch tool September mein rate cut ke liye mazboot ittefaq ko reflec karte hain, kuch traders do 25 basis points ke 3 cuts par bhi shart laga rahe hain. Yeh dovish outlook bain ul aqwami bareek central banks ko bhi rate cuts ko tawajo denay par majboor kiya hai, jis ne qeemti dhaaton ki bain ul aqwami demand ko izafa diya hai.

Kai factors ne sonay ke market ke haalat ko sakht tor par mutasir kiya hai. US dollar index, ek ahem indicator, apni char mahine ki minimum level par gir gaya hai, jo Fed ke rate cuts ke expectations ka izhar hai, jis ne sonay ki appeal ko currency ki mayusi ke khilaf ek aas paas banaya hai. Khaas tor par dollar ne Japanese yen aur British pound ke khilaf khaas tor par kamzor hota hai, teesra UK inflation data ke hisaab se.
2470 ka breakout pehle hi ho chuka hai aur iske baad wahan consolidate nahi kiya gaya, jo ke correction ka signal hoga. 2483 ka breakout purchase ka signal hoga. Aise breakout ke baad, growth phir bhi aage continue karegi. American session ke doran, aik chhoti correction 2470 tak ki gayi aur iske baad, growth phir se continue ho rahi hai.

Is ke ilawa, 10 saal ke US Treasury bonds par maaliyat 4.17% tak gir gayi hai, jo qareeb chaar mahine ki kamzor hui hai, aane wale rate cuts ke expectations ke sath mazboot ki gayi hai. Stable retail sales jaise economic indicators lekin June mein mixed auto sector performance ne Fed ke dovish stance ko support karne wale kahani ko mazeed izafa kiya hai.

Agay dekhte hain, sonay ke liye market ke forecasts bullish rehte hain. Technical indicators ko mazboot khareedari ke momentum ki taraf isharaat dete hain, jahan takkeeki munafa uthane ka to maloom nahin hota, jab tak ke US dollar mein koi bari sudhar na ho ya bain ul aqwami tension kam na ho jaye. Analysts is haalat ke musar hain ke agar mojooda market shara'it jaari rahin to sonay ki keemat $2,500 per ounce ke qareeb barh sakti hai.

Akhri alfaz mein, sonay ke qeemat mein nayay tareen izzafa Federal Reserve policy expectations aur bain ul aqwami maaliyat indicators se mazbooti se juda hua hai. Outlook investors ke liye mazboot hai jo central banks ke dovish hone par aur maaliyat ki mushkilat ke imkanaat par shart lagate hain, jo sonay ko mushtarik waqt mein pasandida aset

T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S X A U / U S D

Good Morning! Umeed hai sab kuch theek ho ga. Aaj mein aap se XAU/USD ke bare mein apne khayalat share karna chahunga. Filhal XAU/USD ka market price 2609.63 ke area ke aas-paas hai. Yeh area resistance zone ke qareeb hai. Chart ke mutabiq, price pattern bullish hai aur barhta hua nazar aa raha hai. Umeed hai ke is saal ke iss quarter mein XAU/USD ka trend barqarar rahega. Oscillator positive territory mein mazid comfortably hai aur overbought zone se door hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator bhi positive lag raha hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke price barhna jari rahega.

Iske ilawa, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi positive hai aur zero level ke just ooper trade kar raha hai. Moving averages bhi bullish signal de rahe hain. Technically, 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) aur 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ka increase bullish traders ke haq mein hai. Meray paas XAU/USD market mein ek trading plan hai jismein 3 buy entries aur 3 sell entries shamil hain.

Resistance Levels: XAU/USD ka pehla resistance level 2625.25 par hai jo ek dynamic resistance level hai. Mazeed barhawa naye buyers ko $2666.89 ke level par attract kar sakta hai jo ke doosra resistance level hai. XAU/USD market mein mazeed barhne ka high chance hai, aur iske baad XAU/USD 2709.59 ke level tak barh sakta hai jo teesra resistance level hai.

Support Levels: Dusri taraf, XAU/USD ka technical support level 2590.01 par hai jo ek dynamic support level hai. Mazeed decline naye sellers ko $2580.87 ke level par attract kar sakta hai jo doosra support level hai. XAU/USD mein mazeed decline ka bhi high chance hai aur iske baad XAU/USD 2570.65 ke support level tak gir sakta hai jo teesra support level hai.

Umeed hai ke mera analysis aapke liye helpful hoga. Aakhri baat, mein buy entry ko prefer karta hoon jismein take profit ka point 2666.89 hoga. Umeed hai ke buyers is hafte stable rahenge aur hum apna profit ratio barha sakenge.

Chart Indicators:

• MACD Indicator
• RSI Indicator (Period 14)
• 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Orange)
• 20-Day Exponential Moving Average (Color: Magenta)

Gold Market Ki Jaiza:

Gold ke qeematon ka safar filhaal ek complex trading landscape ka samna kar raha hai, jo escalating geopolitical tensions aur dovish Federal Reserve expectations se mutasir hai. Amreeka ka faisla ke woh ek additional guided missile submarine Middle East mein deploy karega, is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke regional conflict ke barhne ka risk zyada ho gaya hai. Ye developments safe-haven demand ko barhawa de rahi hain, jo gold ke liye ek degree of support provide kar rahi hain, halanke market abhi range-bound hai. Saath hi, broader financial markets mein optimism ne gold ke upside potential ko temper kar diya hai. Traders ab inflation data aur Federal Reserve ke policy signals ko closely monitor kar rahe hain, taake yellow metal ke aglay direction ka pata lagaya ja sake. Safe-haven flows abhi bhi price floor ka kaam kar rahe hain, lekin market sentiment ke saath short-term trends steer ho rahe hain. In tamam factors ka interplay gold market ko dynamic aur unpredictable banata hai.

D1 Chart Analysis (Daily Time Frame)



Gold ka rate abhi tak us range ke upper boundary ke niche consolidate kar raha hai, jis range mein ye July se trade kar raha hai. Ye sideways trend ko reflect karta hai. Agar critical support levels ko defend na kiya gaya, toh gold bearish pressure ka shikar ho sakta hai. Pehla downside target 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke qareeb hai, jo takreeban $2,651 par hai. Agar is level ko breach kiya gaya, toh bias sellers ke haq mein ho sakta hai, aur prices 100-day SMA ke qareeb, yani $2,545 tak gir sakti hain. Is se bhi zyada decline hone par XAU/USD pair psychological support level, yani $2,500 tak test kar sakta hai. Agar is level ko tod diya gaya, toh pronounced losses hone ke chances hain.

Magar abhi tak ka range-bound movement yeh suggest karta hai ke gold apni established levels ke andar oscillate karta rahega, jab tak koi geopolitical ya economic catalyst decisive breakout ka sabab nahi banta. Traders ko chahiye ke wo market sentiment mein shifts ya major policy announcements ka intezar karein, jo aglay hafton mein gold ke trajectory ko mutasir kar sakte hain.

Gold Analysis
Gold Ka Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) ek valuable aur safe-haven asset hai jo market mein bohot zyada importance rakhta hai. Investors aur traders gold ko international market mein ek investment aur wealth preservation ke tor par use karte hain, khas tor par economic uncertainty ke waqt. Yeh commodity US dollar ke against trade hoti hai aur global economic conditions, political instability, aur interest rate changes par strong reaction show karti hai.

Gold Par Asraat Daalne Walay Factors

Gold ki price par kai important factors ka asar hota hai. Sab se pehla factor global economic uncertainty hai. Jab financial markets mein uncertainty hoti hai, toh investors gold ko ek safe-haven asset ke tor par treat karte hain. Jaise 2008 ki financial crisis ya recent COVID-19 pandemic ke doran, gold ki demand bohot barh gayi thi. Agar economic uncertainty barhti hai toh gold ki price bhi generally upar jati hai.

Interest rates bhi gold ki price ko directly impact karte hain. Agar Federal Reserve interest rates ko increase karta hai, toh USD ki demand barh sakti hai aur gold ki price neeche aa sakti hai kyunki investors USD ko gold par prefer kar sakte hain. Wahi agar interest rates low hain toh gold ki appeal barh jaati hai kyunki low-yielding environment mein gold ek strong asset ban jaata hai.

Iske ilawa, inflation ka asar bhi gold ki price par hota hai. Agar inflation high hai, toh log apne purchasing power ko preserve karne ke liye gold mein invest karte hain, jo gold ki price ko upar le ja sakta hai. Central banks ke gold reserves aur demand-supply dynamics bhi gold ki price ko influence karte hain.

Technical Analysis aur Trading Strategies

Gold mein trading karte waqt technical analysis ka role bhi kaafi significant hai. Support aur resistance levels, moving averages, aur trend lines ko observe karna zaroori hai kyunki yeh price movement ke direction ko samajhne mein madad karte hain. Gold mein Fibonacci retracement aur RSI (Relative Strength Index) ka bhi use hota hai taake overbought ya oversold conditions ko analyze kiya ja sake.

Agar gold ek bullish trend mein hai aur kisi resistance level ko breach karta hai, toh yeh trend continuation ka sign ho sakta hai. Magar agar gold kisi support level par aake sustain nahi karta toh yeh bearish trend continuation ka indication bhi ho sakta hai.

Conclusion

Gold trading ke liye ek popular aur strategic asset hai jo investors ko market ke tough times mein security aur hedge provide karta hai. Gold ki price ko samajhne ke liye global economic conditions, interest rates, inflation, aur technical indicators ka analysis zaroori hai. Market sentiment aur economic indicators ko dekh kar, traders ko gold mein entry aur exit points ko manage karna chahiye. Gold ek important asset hai jo diversification aur risk management mein bhi madadgar sabit hota hai.