xau/usd, gold

XAU/USD Market Outlook

Salam aur Subah bakhair doston!

Haali U.S. news events ne XAU/USD buyers ke liye thodi stability di hai. Kal ke din tak price ek aham zone 2362 tak pohch gayi thi. Lekin agar humein bullish trend ko solidify karna hai, toh humein 2363 zone ke upar close dekhna hoga. Filhal market 2363 point ko reject kar raha hai, jo ke ek resistance zone ke tor par kaam kar raha hai. Is liye traders ko sabr karna chahiye aur 2362 zone ke neeche buy orders kholne se gurez karna chahiye.

Filhal ka market sentiment XAU/USD ke liye bearish hai, aur sellers trend mein dominate kar rahe hain. Yeh mumkin hai ke sellers market ko 2352 ke level ke neeche dhakel dein, aur downward pressure barqarar rakhein. Yeh bearish outlook is baat se mazeed mazboot hota hai ke price resistance zone 2363 ko break nahi kar saki, jo ke buying momentum ke kami ko zahir karta hai.

Jo log XAU/USD mein trade karna chahte hain, unhein in aham levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur kisi bhi trading decision se pehle ek confirmed breakout ya reversal ka intezaar karna chahiye. Market dynamics yeh suggest karte hain ke aaj sellers ka upper hand rahega, aur price ko neeche dhakelne ki koshish jaari rahegi.

Akhir mein, US news ka asar buyers ko thoda stable rakhta hai, lekin critical resistance 2363 ab tak nahi toota. Traders ko ehtiyaat karni chahiye aur 2362 ke neeche buy positions lene se bachna chahiye, kyun ke market abhi bhi sellers ke haq mein hai, aur price ko 2352 ya is se neeche le ja sakte hain.

Toh in aham levels aur market ke behavior par nazar rakh kar, traders behtar tor par is waqt ke bearish XAU/USD landscape mein navigate kar sakte hain. Dekhte hain kuch ghanton mein XAU/USD market mein kya hota hai.

Stay blessed and keep calm!

XAU/USD, Daily

Tuesday ko yellow metal ki qeemat mein girawat dekhi gayi, jab ke Monday ko $2,288 ke significant low se thoda recovery hui thi. Ye downward trend zyada tar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke members ke haali statements ki wajah se hai, jisme unhone interest rate cuts par ehtiyaat baratne par zor diya hai, kyun ke inflation ke concerns ab bhi barqarar hain. Fed ka indication ke wo interest rates ko lambi muddat tak high rakhne ka irada rakhte hain, US dollar ko mazid strong bana sakta hai, jo ke gold prices par downward pressure daal sakta hai.

XAU/USD ke Fundamentals:

Boston Fed ki President Susan Collins ne haali mein yeh emphasize kiya hai ke lower interest rate environment ka raasta lamba hoga. Financial markets, CME Group ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, pehla rate cut September se pehle ki umeed nahi rakhte, aur yeh expectation hai ke saal ke akhir tak do quarter-point reductions hongi. Lekin, Fed Governor Christopher Waller ne mazeed rate hikes ki zarurat par shak ka izhar kiya hai, unka kehna hai ke wo mazeed convincing data ka intezaar karenge qabl iske ke wo near-term mein kisi bhi cuts ko support karein.

Market sentiment, Fed ke interest rates par ehtiyaati approach se mutasir ho raha hai, jo ke gold ki performance ko bhi affect kar raha hai. Inflation aur economic stability ke hawalay se ab bhi uncertainty hai, jo ke aanay walay economic data ko closely monitor karne ki zarurat banata hai, taake yeh data future Fed policies aur gold prices ko shape kar sake.






Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Agar daily close June 7 ke low $2,286 se neeche hoti hai, toh ek significant pullback ka imkaan hai. Aisi movement ek ‘dark cloud cover’ pattern bana sakti hai, jo XAU/USD mein mazeed girawat ka ishara deti hai jab tak koi substantial rally shuru nahi hoti. Relative Strength Index (RSI) jo ke filhal bullish territory mein hai, neeche ki taraf trend kar raha hai. Agar RSI 50-midline se neeche girta hai, toh yeh gold prices mein mazeed girawat ka signal ho sakta hai.

Yellow metal ka pehla resistance April 12 ke high $2,431 par hai, us ke baad all-time high $2,450 par. Agar yeh levels break hote hain toh yeh bullish trend ka ishara de sakte hain, lekin filhal ka market sentiment aur technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke yeh mumkin nahi hai. Agar price $2,400 se neeche retreat hoti hai, toh XAU/USD ko May 13 ka low $2,331, aur phir May 8 ka low $2,302 tak expose kar sakta hai.

XAU/USD Time Frame Chart

Aaj hum H4 period chart ka jaiza lein ge - gold trading instrument ka. Yahan par wave structure ne downward order banaya hai. MACD indicator neeche selling zone mein hai. Iss se pehle, bullish divergence CCI indicator par dikhai di thi, aur emphasis 2352 ke support level par tha. Yeh possibility thi ke ek upward correction hoga resistance level 2392 tak, jo ke waqai hua. Iss senior resistance level ke kareeb, aap lower period mein selling ka confirmation dekh sakte hain.

Main hamesha aisa karta hoon kyun ke jab senior level par pohchta hai, mujhe lagta hai ke rebound hoga, aur M5 chart par bas ek ladder jesa structure hota hai, for example, levels sirf update hotay hain aur price senior level ko cross kar leti hai, jaise ke four-hour level. Four-hour level zyada ahamiyat rakhta hai, lekin kabhi kabhi M5 ya M15 par koi aur level strong hota hai. Is liye, ye behtar hai ke senior level ke qareeb lower period mein restructuring ka intezaar kiya jaye.






M15 par mirror level banega, jahan support resistance mein tabdeel hoga, phir market zyada likely neeche ki taraf jayegi bajaye ke senior level se khul jaye. Agar aap pehli wave par Fibonacci grid lagayein, toh aap target level 161.8 dekh sakte hain. Doosra target neeche hai, jo ke daily chart ki ascending line se dikhai de raha hai, jo koi bhi dekh sakta hai jo pichle do mahino ke lower levels ko connect kare.

In sab cheezon ko dekh kar, mera yeh nateeja hai ke filhal downward entries par hi focus karna zyada promising hai. Agar yeh scenario cancel ho jata hai aur price phir se upwards rebuild hoti hai, toh phir decline ka intezaar karna faida mand nahi hoga. Aaj ke liye economic calendar mein koi khaas news nahi hai.

Gold trading companies ke platforms ke mutabiq, gold bullion ki spot price $2,469.54 per ounce tak barh gayi, jo ke apna pehle ka sabse bara level cross kar chuki hai, jo pichle May ke akhir mein record hui thi. Yeh izafa USA mein inflation ke ahista hone ke asraat ke darmiyan aaya hai, jo yeh afwah ko hawa de raha hai ke central bank jald he interest rates kam karna shuru karega. Zyada interest rates aam tor par gold ke liye negative hote hain, kyun ke gold koi interest nahi deta.

Lekin phir bhi, is saal yellow metal ki price lagbhag 20 percent tak barh chuki hai, jo ke central banks ke bohat barey purchases, China mein consumer demand, aur geopolitics ke darmiyan safe-haven assets ke liye demand ke waja se hai. Haal hi mein ETF holdings ke izafay ne bhi is upward momentum ko support kiya hai.

Gold ke performance aur impact factors par baat karte hue, commodity strategist Ewa Manthey, ING Bank NV, ne kaha, "US ke interest rate cuts par optimism, jab ke zyada economic data Fed ke pivot ke case ko support karta hai, gold ko support de raha hai." Unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke "Haalat ke darmiyan global geopolitical aur macroeconomic landscape ke bawajood, central bank demand mazeed barhne ki umeed hai."

Is haftay ke aaghaz mein, US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne kaha ke haal hi ke data ne policymakers ko yeh bharosa diya hai ke inflation central bank ke 2 percent ke target ki taraf ja raha hai. Ab traders do interest rate cuts ko is saal dekh rahe hain. Traders yeh expect kar rahe hain ke is saal teen cuts honge jab ke Goldman Sachs Group ne kaha ke easing ke liye mohallat ban chuki hai, aur officials ke liye July tak interest rate cuts ka ek "strong rationale" hai.






Aam tor par, gold ki price mein ye haali izafa unexpected nahi tha. June mein, consulting firm Metals Focus ne is saal ek naye record high ka tajziya diya tha, jab ke Citigroup ne bhi is mahine ke aaghaz mein kaha tha ke 2025 tak gold ki base price $2,700 se $3,000 per ounce ke darmiyan hogi.

Investors markets mein bhi Trump ke wapas White House mein aanay ki possibilities ko weigh kar rahe hain, jab ke unki candidacy momentum gain kar rahi hai weekend mein aik assassination attempt ke baad, aur unke khilaf ek criminal case ko drop kiya gaya. Is silsile mein, UBS Group AG ke commodity analyst Giovanni Stanovo ne kaha ke Trump ki presidency ka gold par positive aur negative asraat ho sakte hain. Unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke "tax cuts stocks ki taraf shift ko support karein ge, aur is se tez rate cuts ko limit kiya ja sakta hai." Lekin unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke tax cuts US ke fiscal balances par asar karein ge, jo ke dollar ki position ko kamzor kar sakte hain aur buyers ko gold jaise safe-haven assets ki taraf le ja sakte hain.

XAU/USD

Gold ke historical bull patterns, jaise ke bull pennant aur cup-handle formations, ne hamesha se upward trajectory dikhayi hai. Q2 2024 ka quarter bhi positive note par close hua hai, jo ke Q3 2024 mein aur ziada tezi ki nishani hai. Short term mein, Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts aur Middle East ke geopolitical tensions gold ke prices ko asar andaz kar sakte hain. Magar overall trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Teen mahine ka chart gold market ke liye strong bullish outlook dikhata hai long term mein. Is optimism ko 1980 se 2000 ke historical data se support milta hai, jab ke 2011 mein ek notable peak dekha gaya.

Cup-handle formation jo ke 2011 mein $2075 ke qareeb peak hui thi, uske baad breakout kiya aur ek nayi uptrend leg shuru hui, jo mazeed potential gains ki nishani hai. Bullish pennant aur cup-handle patterns ka zahoor hamesha se upward price trends ko continue karne ki taraf ishaara karta hai. Quarterly chart bhi is trend ko reaffirm karta hai, jahan June 2024 higher levels par close hua, jo ke Q3 2024 ke liye bullish potential dikhata hai.

Agar long-term price behavior ko samajhna ho, toh June 2024 ka monthly chart candlestick pattern dikhata hai jo inflation ke bad breakout ko dikhata hai, aur ye hint karta hai ke significant upward movement ho sakti hai.

In patterns aur trends ke madde nazar, bullish pennant aur cup-handle formations gold market ke liye long term mein ek positive outlook ko underscore karte hain. Isliye, agar price mein koi corrections aati hai toh unhein buying opportunities ke tor par dekha jana chahiye.

Shorter 4-hour timeframe mein, gold ne abhi haal hi mein demand zone ke qareeb $2391 ko touch kiya aur wapis retreat kiya. Iske bawajood, primary trend abhi bhi upward hai. Investors support zone ke qareeb $2331 ka intezaar kar sakte hain taake long positions enter karein aur 300 pip gain ko target karein.

Conclusion, jab ke short-term factors jaise ke U.S. interest rates aur geopolitical tensions volatility ko introduce kar sakti hain, historical aur technical analysis gold par ek bullish stance ko support karta hai, khaaskar Q3 2024 mein dekhte hue.

XAU/USD

US dollar ke interest rate pause ne gold ki prices ko aur upar push kiya, jo resistance level $2344 per ounce tak pohnch gayi, jo ke lag bhag do hafton mein sabse zyada hai jab ke yeh analysis likhi ja rahi hai. Mazeed gains ruk gayi hain kyunke investors ab aur ziada American economic data aur Federal Reserve officials ke bayanaat ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo US interest rates ke raaste ka ishara denge. Khaas events jin par nazar rakhni chahiye, un mein Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ka aane wala khitaab, Wednesday ko FOMC meeting minutes ka release aur Friday ko US non-farm payrolls report shamil hain.

Is dauran, kuch recent data releases ne gold ki prices ko support diya, jaise ke ISM Manufacturing PMI June ke liye expected se neeche raha, jo ke third straight month tha, yeh dikhata hai ke US factory input prices mein weakness hai, jo aagay chal kar inflation ko barqarar rakh sakti hai. Europe mein, European Central Bank ke President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko 2% inflation target tak pohanchne mein mazeed waqt lagay ga aur unhoon ne koi immediate interest rate cuts ko radd kar diya.

Gold market ko asar andaz karne wale factors mein US dollar index bhi shamil hai, jo Tuesday ko 105.9 ke aas paas stable raha, jise strong Treasury yields ka support mila, jo is dauran ke potential government borrowing ke asar se hai, agar Donald Trump ko dosra term milta hai. US 10-year Treasury yield 4.45% ke qareeb hai, jo ek mahine ke sabse high levels ke kareeb trade kar raha hai. Monday ko, US dollar pressure mein tha jab ke American manufacturing activity mein achanak girawat ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut ke case ko mazid mazboot banaya. Forex trading mein, US dollar ne kuch losses euro, British pound, aur Australian dollar ke muqable mein reverse kiye, lekin New Zealand dollar, yuan, aur yen ke muqable mein mazboot raha. Japanese currency 38 saalon ke lowest level tak gir gayi jab ke carry trades ka support barqarar raha.





Ek aur factor jo gold market ko asar andaz kar raha hai woh hai US 10-year Treasury yields jo ek mahine ke high ke qareeb hain.

Trading ke lehaz se, US 10-year Treasury bonds ka yield Tuesday ko lagbhag 4.44% tak gir gaya, lekin yeh ek mahine ke high ke qareeb hi raha pichle haftay ke debates aur Supreme Court ke decisions ke baad, jo ke former President Donald Trump ke possible second term ke liye broader immunity ko favor karte hain. Pehle ke presidents ke second terms inflationary samjhe gaye hain, jo ke tax cuts, tougher immigration policies aur increased import tariffs se fueled ho sakte hain. Is dauran, investors Federal Reserve ke monetary policy outlook ko evaluate karte rahe weak PCE inflation readings aur May ke aur June ke weakest ISM manufacturing PMI ke baad.

XAU/USD Market Forecast

Salam aur subah bakhair sab visitors ko!
Buyers apni value barhate ja rahe hain aur 2440 zone ko cross kar chuke hain. Yeh aham movement market mein strong upward trend ko darshati hai. Ab jab ke price resistance zone ke aas paas float kar rahi hai, sellers aaj kamzor reh sakte hain aur price ko neeche push nahi kar paayenge. Is liye, aapke accounts ko is hisaab se manage karna behtar hoga taake aap current market dynamics ka faida utha sakein. Aaj ke liye 2456 ka short target rakhta buy order theek rahega, jo ek strategic entry point provide karega taake potential gains maximize kiye ja sakein. Lekin, US dollar se related aane wali news data par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Kisi bhi significant economic announcement ya monetary policy changes se market sentiment aur price movements par asar ho sakta hai. Umeed hai ke XAU/USD market aaj aur kal buyers ke haq mein rahega aur bullish momentum barqarar rahega. Is context mein, technical analysis ka use aur key resistance aur support levels par nazar rakhna bhi zaroori hai. Current trend yeh suggest karta hai ke buyers ka haath upar hai, lekin US dollar se related external factors market ki direction ko influence kar sakte hain. Isliye, market conditions ke mutabiq adapt karna aur real-time strategies adjust karna zaroori hai taake trading outcomes optimize kiye ja sakein. 2456 ko target karke traders realistic profit level ke liye aim kar sakte hain aur potential risks ko mitigate kar sakte hain. Yeh approach ambition aur caution ka balance banati hai, observed market trends aur anticipated news flow ke sath align karti hai. Hamesha, risk management ka disciplined approach rakhna aur sudden market shifts ke liye prepared rehna fundamental hai. Summary yeh ke, buyers ki strength aur sellers ke kamzor hone ke mad e nazar, 2440 zone ke aas paas buy order par focus karna aur 2456 ko target karna, jab ke US dollar se related news par alert rehna, traders ko current market environment se faida uthane ka mauqa deta hai.

Aapka trading din successful ho!

XAU/USD Forecast

Salam aur subah bakhair sabko!

Aaj, XAU/USD ka market buyers ke haq mein rehne ke imkaan hain. Friday ko yeh 2388 zone ke aas paas pohanch gaya tha. Yeh girawat dikhati hai ke US se related Average Good Orders aur doosri news data sellers ke liye thi. Isliye, aane wale din buyers ko 2400 ke resistance zone ko phir se cross karne mein madad karenge. Current market conditions XAU/USD ke liye recent economic indicators aur US se aane wali news events se kafi zyada mutasir hain. 2388 zone tak ki girawat ek temporary bearish sentiment ko highlight karti hai, jo ke Average Good Orders data ke wajah se hai, jo sellers ke haq mein thi. Lekin, overall market outlook buyers ke liye promising lagti hai. 2400 ka resistance zone ek critical level hai jise traders nazar mein rakh rahe hain. Historical data se pata chalta hai ke gold downturns ke baad rebound karne ki tendency rakhta hai, khaaskar jab short-term economic news se girawat hoti hai. Recent dip ko broader market trends aur XAU/USD ki inherent strength ke context mein dekhna chahiye. Current market sentiment kai factors se driven hai. Ek taraf, short-term economic data jaise ke Average Good Orders turant market reactions create karte hain, jo aksar sellers ke haq mein hoti hain. Dusri taraf, gold ka long-term outlook robust hai kyunke yeh ek safe-haven asset hai. Investors aksar economic uncertainty ke doran gold ki taraf rukh karte hain, aur aane wali news cycle buyers ke liye ample opportunities provide karne ka imkaan rakhti hai. Jab market recent economic data ko process karega, XAU/USD ka recover karna aur 2400 resistance zone ko cross karna zyada plausible ho jayega. Buyers ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur favorable conditions ka faida uthane ke liye ready rehna chahiye. Gold ki resilience aur strategic buying opportunities suggest karti hain ke market buyers ke haq mein shift ho sakti hai. Incoming news events aur unke potential impact par nazar rakhna zaroori hai.

Aapka trading week successful ho!

XAU/USD ke Fundamentals:

Jaise hi Thursday ke Asian trading session ka aghaz hota hai, spot price apni bullish momentum ko barqarar rakhta hai, aur $2,510 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Session ke aghaz mein, gold prices ne pehle ke all-time high $2,484 ko cross kiya, aur nayi peak $2,532 par set hui. Filhal, yeh precious metal $2,506 ke qareeb position mein hai, aur jald hi $2,520 ka level breach karne ki umeed hai.

US Dollar ne teen mahine ke low ko touch karne ke baad apni position wapis hasil ki hai, jo ke prices par downward pressure dal raha hai do din se lagatar. Yeh tabdeeli US Bureau of Labor Statistics ke haaliya data ke baad aayi, jismein Producer Price Index (PPI) final demand ke liye 2.6% year-over-year June mein bara gaya, jo ke expected 2.3% se zyada hai. Is inflation ke izafay ne dollar ko mazid mazboot banaya, jis se gold ki performance par asar para.

Iske ilawa, US Presidential candidate Donald Trump par failed assassination attempt ke baad siyasi bay-yaqeeni ne Greenback ko aur support diya. Magar, Federal Reserve se dovish stance ki umeedon ki wajah se dollar ke gains me hadbandi ho sakti hai. Market pricing iss waqt 90% se zyada probability dikhati hai ke Fed September mein rate-cutting cycle ka aghaz karega, jo ke tame US consumer inflation report se mazeed reinforce hota hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Metal market ne resilience dikhayi hai. Thursday ke din dip-buying ne $2,521 ke qareeb strong resistance ko reinforce kiya hai. Daily chart ke oscillators positive territory mein hain aur abhi overbought zone mein nahi hain, jo is baat ka ishara dete hain ke gold prices ke liye path of least resistance abhi bhi upward hai. Iske natijay mein, agar gold prices $2,500 se neeche girte hain to yeh buying opportunity ho sakti hai, na ke bearish signal.

Technical indicators bhi continuous bullish trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ne strong bullish divergence dikhayi hai, jo mazeed upward momentum suggest karta hai jo gold ko nayi all-time high $2,550 se upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin agar gold prices $2,481 se neeche girti hain, toh market $2,430 ke region ki taraf pullback dekh sakta hai.

Xau/usd, gold GOLD Forecast Analysis

Gold asset ke liye do ideas hain. Pehla yeh ke price 2517 tak barhni chahiye aur wahan se, imbalance milne ke baad, aik reversal zone aur reversal moment form hoga. Yeh range ke andar correction ke andar decline ke aghaz ka sabab banega. Dusra idea yeh hai ke price current positions se girna shuru karegi aur 2442 tak kam ho jayegi, wahan se positions accumulate karte hue growth ke haq mein wapas recover karegi. 2517 ka level kisi bhi surat mein important hai, iska update inevitable hai. Yeh level 2520 tak bhi update ho sakta hai aur wahan se rollback mil sakta hai, reversal figure form karte hue, ya phir yeh simply nayi range ki taraf decline shuru kar sakti hai, iski boundaries create karte hue. Filhal, market bara participants ka intezar kar raha hai. Woh kis cheez ka intezar kar rahe hain yeh unka kaam hai, aur market paisa dhoond raha hai.

Aam tor par, aik chhoti downward correction pehle hi ki ja chuki hai aur iske baad, growth continue ho rahi hai. Aik chhoti correction pehle hi mil chuki hai aur iske baad, rate barhni continue karegi. Aaj, yeh possible tha ke aik chhota impulse downwards range of 2463 tak ho, phir wahan se growth continue hogi. Downward correction ke baad, growth phir bhi aage continue karegi. 2470 ka breakout pehle hi ho chuka hai aur iske baad wahan consolidate nahi kiya gaya, jo ke correction ka signal hoga. 2483 ka breakout purchase ka signal hoga. Aise breakout ke baad, growth phir bhi aage continue karegi. American session ke doran, aik chhoti correction 2470 tak ki gayi aur iske baad, growth phir se continue ho rahi hai

Forex Trading with Gold Prices

Aaj ka focus gold price movements ko analyze karna hai. Aaj 2499 level ka hona mumkin tha. Halankeh main ne Monday ko iski anticipation ki thi, yeh abhi tak bullish trend se door lagta hai. Abhi trading zaroori nahi hai, lekin umeed hai ke bulls kal tak apni taqat dobara hasil kar lenge. Filhal, selling ke liye koi clear signals nahi hain. Bhalay hi buying momentum solid na ho, aisa lagta hai ke Mercury retrograde ya to khatam ho gaya hai ya khatam hone wala hai, is liye thodi si umeed hai ke gold price 2536.5 tak upar ja sakta hai. Aaj ka dip buying territory mein aane ka ek potential moka ho sakta hai rebound ke liye. Lekin asal test kal hoga. Market review bullish hai. Market tight hai, kal ke growth aur aaj ke decline ke saath lagta hai ke koi trigger ka intezar ho raha hai. Kal ka US GDP release woh event ho sakta hai jo hamari sabr ka phal de, aur shayad ek aur surge ki taraf le jaye.



Gold ne recently apni comfort zones mein reh kar options ke hawalay se operate kiya hai, halankeh yeh zones kaafi broad hain. Aaj Wednesday ka option expire ho raha hai, jisme calls strikes 2599.0-2589.0 par hain aur puts strikes 2444.0-2434.0 par hain. Lagta hai ke market price aaj breakout kar sakta hai. Agle Wednesday ke option ke liye comfort zone calls mein ek strike neeche hai, aur iske puts ne significant rise dikhaya hai, jo monthly puts 2489.0-2479.0 ke saath align karte hain. Is liye, gold ke 99.0 tak pohonchne ka goal shayad indefinite ho gaya hai. Growth ceiling abhi bhi Monday option calls 2604.0-2594.0 par hai, monthly calls thodi neeche hain. Ya phir, yeh volatility August ke aakhri dino ka nateeja ho sakti hai, jese ke month ka end ho raha hai.

Gold trading companies ke platforms ke mutabiq, gold bullion ki spot price $2,469.54 per ounce tak barh gayi, jo ke apna pehle ka sabse bara level cross kar chuki hai, jo pichle May ke akhir mein record hui thi. Yeh izafa USA mein inflation ke ahista hone ke asraat ke darmiyan aaya hai, jo yeh afwah ko hawa de raha hai ke central bank jald he interest rates kam karna shuru karega. Zyada interest rates aam tor par gold ke liye negative hote hain, kyun ke gold koi interest nahi deta.

Lekin phir bhi, is saal yellow metal ki price lagbhag 20 percent tak barh chuki hai, jo ke central banks ke bohat barey purchases, China mein consumer demand, aur geopolitics ke darmiyan safe-haven assets ke liye demand ke waja se hai. Haal hi mein ETF holdings ke izafay ne bhi is upward momentum ko support kiya hai.

Gold ke performance aur impact factors par baat karte hue, commodity strategist Ewa Manthey, ING Bank NV, ne kaha, "US ke interest rate cuts par optimism, jab ke zyada economic data Fed ke pivot ke case ko support karta hai, gold ko support de raha hai." Unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke "Haalat ke darmiyan global geopolitical aur macroeconomic landscape ke bawajood, central bank demand mazeed barhne ki umeed hai."

Is haftay ke aaghaz mein, US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne kaha ke haal hi ke data ne policymakers ko yeh bharosa diya hai ke inflation central bank ke 2 percent ke target ki taraf ja raha hai. Ab traders do interest rate cuts ko is saal dekh rahe hain. Traders yeh expect kar rahe hain ke is saal teen cuts honge jab ke Goldman Sachs Group ne kaha ke easing ke liye mohallat ban chuki hai, aur officials ke liye July tak interest rate cuts ka ek "strong rationale" hai.





Aam tor par, gold ki price mein ye haali izafa unexpected nahi tha. June mein, consulting firm Metals Focus ne is saal ek naye record high ka tajziya diya tha, jab ke Citigroup ne bhi is mahine ke aaghaz mein kaha tha ke 2025 tak gold ki base price $2,700 se $3,000 per ounce ke darmiyan hogi.
American session ke doran, aik chhoti correction 2470 tak ki gayi aur iske baad, growth phir se continue ho rahi hai.

Investors markets mein bhi Trump ke wapas White House mein aanay ki possibilities ko weigh kar rahe hain, jab ke unki candidacy momentum gain kar rahi hai weekend mein aik assassination attempt ke baad, aur unke khilaf ek criminal case ko drop kiya gaya. Is silsile mein, UBS Group AG ke commodity analyst Giovanni Stanovo ne kaha ke Trump ki presidency ka gold par positive aur negative asraat ho sakte hain. Unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke "tax cuts stocks ki taraf shift ko support karein ge, aur is se tez rate cuts ko limit kiya ja sakta hai." Lekin unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke tax cuts US ke fiscal balances par asar karein ge, jo ke dollar ki position ko kamzor kar sakte hain aur buyers ko gold jaise safe-haven assets ki taraf le ja sakte hain.

Gold Trades Analysis

Gold ne $2,500 ke level ke neeche trade karna shuru kar diya hai jab ke risk recede ho raha hai, markets calm hain, aur US Dollar thoda sa recover kar raha hai. Traders is hafte US labor market data ka intezar kar rahe hain taake apni agle moves ka faisla kar saken.

$2,500 ka level technical perspective se key hai, aur yeh bearish pressure ke neeche give way karne ki threat kar raha hai. Gold (XAU/USD) Tuesday ko thoda neeche $2,490s mein edge kar raha hai jab ke market calm hota nazar aa raha hai, jo safe-haven Gold ke demand ko barhane mein kuch khaas madad nahi kar raha.

US Dollar (USD) – jis ke sath Gold ka inverse correlation hai – apni recovery rally mein slow ho gaya hai, aur Tuesday ko sirf thoda zyada trade kar raha hai jab ke traders potentially market-moving US labor market data ke release ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Investors aise lagta hai ke araam se final "test results" ka intezar kar rahe hain – is case mein US economy ke liye – taake yeh andaza laga saken ke agle course of action kya hoga, specifically Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rates cut ka faisla – jo ke Gold ka key driver hai.

Tel Aviv mein ceasefire ki demand ke liye demonstrations, jab ke saath Israeli hostages ke dead bodies milne par, aur Israeli workers ke general strike ke call ne, kam se kam temporarily, ek key geopolitical hotspot mein threat level ko kam kar diya hai, jis ne markets mein uneasy calm ko barhawa diya hai.

Gold Traders ka US Employment Data ka Intezaar

Gold ke price mein is hafte US labor market data ke release se zyada volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Jackson Hole mein apni pivotal speech mein, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ne inflation se nazar hata kar fragile-looking labor market par focus kiya, yeh suggest karte hue ke employment ke downside risks ab inflation ke upside risks se zyada hain.

Agar is hafte labor market data, jaise ke Tuesday ko ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, Wednesday ko JOLTS Job Openings, Thursday ko ADP Employment Change, Jobless Claims, aur ISM Services Employment Index, aur Friday ko Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) expected se weaker aata hai aur uski concerns ko backup karta hai, toh yeh US Dollar (USD) mein girawat aur Gold ke price mein izafa kar sakta hai.

Technical Analysis: Mini-Range Base ka Test

Gold (XAU/USD) ab tak ke mini-range ke base ko test kar raha hai jisme yeh late August se trade kar raha hai, $2,500 aur $2,531 ke darmiyan. Yeh range floor ko erode kar raha hai, aur neeche marginally lower lows post kar raha hai. Yeh risk hai ke yeh break lower kare aur ek naye zone mein enter kare jisme sloping top of the old range highs kareeb $2,470 aur $2,500 ke darmiyan ho.


4

XAU/USD

Gold ke historical bull patterns, jaise ke bull pennant aur cup-handle formations, ne hamesha se upward trajectory dikhayi hai. Q2 2024 ka quarter bhi positive note par close hua hai, jo ke Q3 2024 mein aur ziada tezi ki nishani hai. Short term mein, Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts aur Middle East ke geopolitical tensions gold ke prices ko asar andaz kar sakte hain. Magar overall trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Teen mahine ka chart gold market ke liye strong bullish outlook dikhata hai long term mein. Is optimism ko 1980 se 2000 ke historical data se support milta hai, jab ke 2011 mein ek notable peak dekha gaya.

Cup-handle formation jo ke 2011 mein $2075 ke qareeb peak hui thi, uske baad breakout kiya aur ek nayi uptrend leg shuru hui, jo mazeed potential gains ki nishani hai. Bullish pennant aur cup-handle patterns ka zahoor hamesha se upward price trends ko continue karne ki taraf ishaara karta hai. Quarterly chart bhi is trend ko reaffirm karta hai, jahan June 2024 higher levels par close hua, jo ke Q3 2024 ke liye bullish potential dikhata hai.

Agar long-term price behavior ko samajhna ho, toh June 2024 ka monthly chart candlestick pattern dikhata hai jo inflation ke bad breakout ko dikhata hai, aur ye hint karta hai ke significant upward movement ho sakti hai.

In patterns aur trends ke madde nazar, bullish pennant aur cup-handle formations gold market ke liye long term mein ek positive outlook ko underscore karte hain. Isliye, agar price mein koi corrections aati hai toh unhein buying opportunities ke tor par dekha jana chahiye.

Shorter 4-hour timeframe mein, gold ne abhi haal hi mein demand zone ke qareeb $2391 ko touch kiya aur wapis retreat kiya. Iske bawajood, primary trend abhi bhi upward hai. Investors support zone ke qareeb $2331 ka intezaar kar sakte hain taake long positions enter karein aur 300 pip gain ko target karein.

Conclusion, jab ke short-term factors jaise ke U.S. interest rates aur geopolitical tensions volatility ko introduce kar sakti hain, historical aur technical analysis gold par ek bullish stance ko support karta hai, khaaskar Q3 2024 mein dekhte hue.

Charting the Course: Gold

Hum apne analysis mein Gold ki current price performance ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Hourly chart par pair ki movement ek inverted triangle pattern bana rahi hai. Aaj, pair decline karte hue is inverted triangle ki lower boundary 477 level tak pohanch gaya. Is point ko touch karne par downward movement ruk gayi aur price wapas upar uthne lagi. Lekin, main abhi bhi market mein kisi ek outcome se mutmaeen nahi hoon. Market hamesha movement ke liye multiple possibilities pesh karta hai. Pair ne bearish boundary ko test kiya hai aur ab minimum level 2469.45 ki taraf pohanchne ki koshish kar raha hai. Lekin, current global conditions zyada gehri correction ko support nahi karti. Yeh samajhna thoda mushkil hai ke market kaise function karta hai, lekin upward movement ke liye asaan rasta lagta hai ke mushkil ho. Isliye, yeh mumkin hai ke koi significant market player dive in kare aur positions accumulate karne ki koshish kare.

Daily chart par focus yeh lagta hai ke price support level 2430.87 ke qareeb pohanchne ki koshish kar raha hai. Lekin, price apni descent ko rokh sakti hai aur current levels se ek bullish move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai. Abhi ke liye, deeper correction ke possibility ko madde nazar rakho, jo ke 2275.93 ke low se ascend kar sakti hai. Main 2479 level ko highlight karna chahta hoon, jahan se price pehle daily time frame par channel se breakout hua tha aur phir wapas aaya. Aaj ka trading range 2530.33 se 2469.45 tak span karta hai, aur jab ke yeh range abhi tak nahi hai, yeh lower boundary ke potential break ke qareeb hai. Yeh level critical targets FE100 aur FE61.8 ke sath bhi coincide karta hai, jo is point ko dekhne ke liye zaroori banata hai. Agar price is level ko test karte hue neeche move karta hai, toh yeh indicate karta hai ke decline targets 2429.81-2413.31 tak jari reh sakta hai. Agar price 2462.81 level ko test karke rebound karta hai, toh yeh 2530.33 target aur uske aage upward movement ko resume kar sakta hai. Lekin agar price 2462.81 ke neeche settle hota hai, toh decline 2413.31 ki taraf jaane ka imkaan hai.