usd/jpy

USD/JPY ki current situation kuch challenging hai, lekin overall currency pairs ka direction dekhte hue, abhi sirf northern movement ka option consider kar raha hoon. Mera main target important resistance level 146.89 par hai. Agar buyers initiative le lete hain, to hum north ki taraf ek kaafi strong movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Sab se zaroori baat ye hai ke abhi tak upward movement ka direction hi chosen hai. Lekin agar bears price ko nearest support level ke neeche dhakel dete hain, to direction mein tabdeeli mumkin hai, lekin is waqt hum usay discuss nahi karte. Aaj kai news events hain, jo theoretically humare pair ko influence kar sakti hain. Dekhte hain ke kya ye events impact dalte hain: US dollar ke liye kuch average-level ke events hain, lekin main sirf important ones ko mention karoon ga: Building Permits (Aug), New Home Sales (Aug), Crude Oil Inventories, aur Crude Oil Excess Reserves in Cushing, Oklahoma. Japan ke liye aaj sirf kuch weak events expected hain: Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (y/y) aur Bank of Japan Core CPI (y/y). Calendar ke mutabiq kuch 2-star aur 3-star news events hain jo significant movement ka tone set kar rahe hain. Of course, strong news events kisi bhi technical analysis forecast ko adjust kar sakti hain, isliye humein cautious rehna ho ga.Investors abhi tak Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ke recent comments ka gehra tajziya kar rahe hain. Ueda ne kaha hai ke BoJ abhi monetary policy adjustments ke hawalay se ehtiyat kar raha hai, aur interest rates mein izafa filhal likely nahi lagta. Ueda ne market aur economic conditions ka thorough analysis zaroori samjha hai before koi policy decision le jaye, aur unhone external risks ka bhi zikar kiya, jaise ke financial markets mein volatility aur US economy ki uncertainties, jo Japan ke monetary policy ke liye aham hain. September meeting mein BoJ ne interest rates ko 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo market expectations ke mutabiq tha. Ye speculation hai ke October meeting mein koi bara change nahi hoga, lekin December tak BoJ ke pass kaafi evidence ho sakta hai ke rate hike justify kiya jaye.Waisi, US dollar ki recent girawat, jo weak US consumer confidence data ke waja se hui, ne yen ko strong kiya hai. Is move ne Federal Reserve ke further rate cuts ki umeedon ko barhawa diya hai.

USD/JPY abhi ek broad consolidation zone mein hai, jo 143.43 se 144.66 ke darmiyan centered hai. Market ne ek downward move shuru kiya tha 142.55 tak, aur is level ko ooper se test kiya. Hum assume karte hain ke is range ke upper limit tak rebound ho sakta hai. Agar price 144.70 se ooper break karti hai, to 145.77 tak rise ho sakta hai, aur possibly 146.66 tak bhi. Waisa agar price 142.00 tak girti hai, to phir ye trend ke continuation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo 137.77 tak le jaye. MACD indicator is bullish scenario ko support kar raha hai, jisme signal line zero se ooper hai aur upward point kar rahi hai.

MACD aur CCI indicators par bullish divergence form ho sakti hai. Is signal ka anjaam indicators ki current position se pehle se hi andaza lagaya ja sakta hai. Filhal kaam karne ka priority chhote time frames par sirf niche ki taraf hai jab tak 141.66 ka minimum update nahi hota, aur uske baad dekha jayega. Abhi tak downward pressure ke kam hone ke koi nishan nahi hain. Chhota low relatively nazdeek hai, to price isse nikalne ki koshish karegi, jab tak market ka general movement US dollar ke haq mein na ho, jo ke kaafi mumkin lagta hai. Dusri currencies abhi US dollar ke muqablay kamzor hoti dikhayi de rahi hain. Har haal mein trend ke saath kaam karna behtar hai, isse success ke chances barhte hain, aur hamara trend daily chart se downward hai. Haan, kuch bade news bhi aa sakte hain. Agar ye news US dollar ke liye favorable hui, to shayad low ke bahar na nikle, chahe woh kitna bhi nazdeek ho. Moscow time 15-30 par: Average hourly earnings in the US, Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US, Share of the economically active population in the US, Change in the number of employed in the private sector -Agricultural sector of the US, Unemployment rate in the US. Technical Analysis Technical side par USD/JPY mixed picture dikhata hai, jisme potential bullishness ke signs hain. 4-hour chart par ek significant Hammer candlestick ban rahi hai, jo reversal ya notable upward move ka signal de sakti hai agar pattern session ke end tak intact rahe. Triangular Moving Average channel aur Zigzag indicator suggest karte hain ke pair upward trend mein hai, jo buying opportunities ka indication hai. Laguerre aur RSI oscillators bhi bullish activity ke haq mein hain. RSI market ko oversold territory ke qareeb dikhata hai, jo aksar price rebound ka signal hota hai. Agar upward momentum barqarar raha, to pair Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 152.350 ko target kar sakta hai. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhni chahiye aur position enter karne se pehle further confirmation ka intezar karna chahiye. Toh, technical indicators USD/JPY ke liye possible bullish run ka hint dete hain, lekin economic reports aur market sentiment par bhi nazar rakhni zaroori hai. Halankeh technical signals buying ko favor karte hain, fundamental drivers bhi pair ke future direction ko shape karne mein significant role play karte hain

USD/JPY





USD/JPY Ki Market Analysis
Introduction
USD/JPY (US Dollar aur Japanese Yen) forex market ki ek bohot popular currency pair hai. Yeh pair dono countries ki economic conditions, interest rate differentials, aur global market sentiment se influence hota hai. USD/JPY ko zyada tar carry trades aur safe-haven demand ki wajah se bhi trade kiya jata hai. Is analysis mein hum USD/JPY ki current market situation ko samjhenge aur aane wale dino mein iski possible direction par nazar dalenge.

Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY ko fundamentally drive karne wale factors mein US aur Japan ki economic strength, Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policies, aur global risk sentiment shamil hain. US Dollar ko is waqt Federal Reserve ki hawkish stance ki support mili hui hai, jahan interest rates high hain aur inflation control karne ke liye Fed aggressive policies follow kar raha hai. Yeh USD ki strength ko support karta hai.

Doosri taraf, Japan ki economy low growth aur deflation se fight kar rahi hai. Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jahan interest rates negative ya zero ke kareeb hain. Yen ki weakness ka main reason BoJ ki policy aur low interest rate environment hai. Lekin, global market uncertainties ke time par Yen ko safe-haven demand milti hai, jo USD/JPY ko temporary downside pressure de sakti hai.

Technical Analysis
Technically, USD/JPY ne recent mein 145.00 ka strong support level test kiya tha aur wahan se bounce kiya hai. Abhi pair 148.00-150.00 ki taraf move kar raha hai jo ek major resistance zone hai. Agar yeh resistance break hota hai, toh pair 152.00-153.00 levels ko target kar sakta hai. Moving averages abhi bhi bullish alignment mein hain, jo positive momentum ko indicate karte hain. RSI bhi 60 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo bullish momentum ko support karta hai lekin overbought condition se abhi door hai.

Market Sentiment
USD/JPY ka market sentiment ziada tar risk-on aur risk-off dynamics se influence hota hai. Jab market mein risk-on sentiment hota hai, investors USD ki taraf shift hotay hain, especially jab Fed ki hawkish policies support mein ho. Iske contrast mein, jab risk-off sentiment prevail karta hai, Yen ki safe-haven demand barh jati hai. Geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdown, aur financial market volatility Yen ko support kar sakte hain.

Future Outlook
Aane wale dino mein, USD/JPY ki direction Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki monetary policy announcements, US economic data, aur global risk sentiment par heavily depend karegi. Agar Fed apni hawkish stance ko continue rakhta hai aur BoJ dovish rehta hai, toh USD/JPY ko further upside momentum mil sakta hai. Lekin, agar market mein koi unexpected geopolitical event hota hai, toh Yen ki strength USD/JPY ko neeche ki taraf push kar sakti hai.

Conclusion
USD/JPY ki trading mein technical aur fundamental factors ko combine kar ke trading decisions lene chahiye. Yeh pair ek balanced risk-reward strategy demand karta hai, jahan risk management aur key levels ko focus mein rakh kar trade kiya jaye. Market sentiment, economic indicators, aur central bank policies par nazar rakh kar aap is pair mein profitable trading decisions le sakte hain.

USD/JPY currency pair ki recent price movement kai zaroori insights deti hai jo market behavior aur trading strategies ko samajhne mein madad karti hain. Yeh analysis technical aur fundamental factors ke nazar se diya gaya hai.
Technical Analysis


Price test jo 143.76 par hua, wo ek important technical level tha. Yeh support level ke saath saath MACD indicator ka zero mark se upward move hona bhi ek strong buy signal tha. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ek aisa trend-following momentum indicator hai jo security ki price ke do moving averages ke darmiyan taluq dikhata hai. Jab MACD zero line ke upar cross karta hai, to yeh bullish momentum ka indication hota hai. Is case mein, MACD ka upward movement 143.76 par buy trade ke liye entry point ki taraf ishara kar raha tha.

Jaise hi price is entry point se upar chali gayi, wo jaldi se 144.00 mark ko paar karti hui 144.24 level tak pohnch gayi, jo agla resistance point tha. 143.76 se 144.24 tak ki movement, jo ke 50 pips ki gain thi, yeh buy trade ke valid hone ka saboot thi. Aise sharp aur tezi se badalti price movements forex market mein aam hain, khas kar jab technical levels aur indicators market sentiment ke saath align karte hain.

Is trade ki safalta yeh sabit karti hai ke technical indicators jaise MACD se confirmation lene ke baad hi trade mein ghusna zaroori hai. Yeh bhi dikhata hai ke support, resistance aur momentum indicators ka combination trade timing mein kitna important hai.
Reversal Trade


144.24 par, forecast ke mutabiq, dollar ko immediately sell karna tha jab price rebound karti. Yeh jahan pe technical analysis phir se zaroori ho gaya. Resistance levels, jaise ke 144.24, aise points hote hain jahan upward momentum ruk jata hai kyunki sellers market mein enter karte hain, yeh samajhte hue ke price itni zyada ho gayi hai ke wo bullish trend ko maintain nahi kar sakti. Is level par dollar bechne ka faisla in established resistance levels par base tha, aur pullback ke hone ki anticipation thi, jo ke strong rally ke baad aam baat hoti hai.

Jaise hi price ne rebound liya, traders ne downward movement ka faida uthaya, aur doosri 50-pip profit secure ki. Yeh price action ek achi timing se sell decision ko dikhata hai, khas kar jab market ne resistance level ke technical constraints ko respect kiya. Yeh movement bhi dikhata hai ke markets key levels ko respect karte hain, khas kar jab dusre confirming signals jaise momentum indicators aur overbought/oversold conditions bhi saath ho.
Japanese PMI Data ka Asar


Technical factors ke saath saath, fundamental aspects bhi market behavior mein ahm role play karte hain. Japan ka manufacturing PMI data expected se kam aaya, jo country ke manufacturing sector mein slowdown ko show karta hai. Yeh negative data directly JPY ki performance par asar dalta hai, khas kar jab yeh economy ke sentiments ko weak karta hai. Manufacturing PMI ke forecast se kam aane se yen par confidence kam ho gaya, jo ke stronger USD/JPY rate ko support karta hai.

Lekin, manufacturing data ke disappoint hone ke bawajood, Japan ke services PMI ne comparatively achha perform kiya. Services PMI aksar consumer sentiment aur business confidence ko reflect karta hai, jo manufacturing ke weak hone ko counterbalance kar sakta hai. Lekin is positive data ke bawajood, market yen ke against negative sentiment ko reverse karne mein successful nahi hua.


Summary yeh hai ke 143.76 par jo technical setup tha, jo MACD indicator ke confirmation ke saath tha, usne USD/JPY mein buying ka exact entry point diya. Price break hone par 144.24 ne profits lock karne ka mauka diya, jab ke subsequent rebound ne sell trade karne ka bhi achha waqt diya. Fundamental backdrop, jo Japan ke weak manufacturing PMI data pe mabni tha, usne yen par additional pressure dala aur dollar ki strength ko reinforce kiya. Lekin services PMI ke positive data ke bawajood, yen pressure mein rahi, jo technical aur fundamental analysis ke complex interplay ko dikhata hai jo currency movements ko drive karta hai.

Yeh trades yeh sabit karte hain ke market ke technical aur fundamental aspects ko samajhna kitna zaroori hai, aur kaise ye saath mil kar cohesive trading strategy banate hain

### USD/JPY Price Analysis

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke haalati price behavior ka jaiza le rahe hain. Maine Price Action method ka istemal karte hue chart ka analysis kiya aur ek "morning star" candle pattern pehchana. Filhal, algorithm ne 400 points ka achha movement dikhaya hai. Scalping ke shaukeen traders ke liye ek aur important technical aspect samne aaya hai. Price kaafi arse se ek descending channel mein decline kar raha hai, aur maine reference points ke along ek diagonal line khichi hai jo resistance ka kaam kar rahi hai. Humne is line ko Friday ko touch kiya, isliye Monday ko developments par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Yaad rahe ke Japan is din chutti par hai, is liye woh forex market se ghair maujood rahega.

Aane wale Monday ke liye agar 144.458 ka resistance consolidate hota hai, to buying target 147.101 tak shift ho jayega. Iske muqabil agar 142.582 ka support fail hota hai, to bearish target 140.808 ka support level hoga.

### Pichle Haftay ka Analysis

Pichle haftay, USD/JPY ka hourly chart shuru hota hai support level 138.862 tak decline ke saath, jo 140.685 ke support ko break karta hai. Is waqt ek sell signal bana, lekin price us level ke upar waapas aa gaya. Yeh level Tuesday ko bhi dobara dekha gaya, lekin yeh bhi ek false break tha. Monday aur Tuesday ke doran, price ne misleading buy aur sell signals produce kiye.

Tuesday ke end tak, price ne 140.685 ke resistance ko successfully break kiya, jo ek valid buy signal ki taraf le gaya, aur yeh 142.582 ke resistance tak pohanch gaya. Iske baad, price ne 140.685 par retrace kiya aur Wednesday ko wahan se rebound kiya. Thursday ko, price ne 142.582 ke resistance ko break kiya, jo ek buy signal ko trigger karta hai, lekin is level par phir se false breach hota hai.

Ek aur false breakdown ke baad, ek naya buy signal bana jo successfully kaam karta hai. Friday ko, price ne phir se support ko break kiya, lekin yeh bhi ek false break tha. Ek buy signal activate hota hai jo 144.458 ke resistance tak pohanchne mein madadgar sabit hota hai, aur yeh pehle hi play out ho chuka hai.

Yeh sab movements hume yeh samjhaate hain ke market mein volatility hai, aur traders ko har waqt risk management par focus karna chahiye. Umeed hai ke yeh analysis aap ke liye faida mand hoga. Agar aap ke koi sawal hain, to bejhijhak poochiye

Roman Urdu mein:


Maujooda Market Dynamics


Filhal, USD/JPY bullish momentum ko darsha raha hai technical indicators ke mutabiq.


Yeh bullish sentiment MA72 (72-period moving average) ke upar price ki position se bhi support hota hai.


Traders MA72 ke around price behavior ko dekhte hain, kyunki yeh strong buying interest ko signify karta hai.


Volume distribution bhi bullish trends ko confirm karne mein important role play karta hai.


Upward movements mein higher volume robust demand ko indicate karta hai.


Pivot point ke qareeb hone se market critical juncture par hai.


Agar price 141.64 ke level ko breach karta hai, to yeh strong bullish move ko signal kar sakta hai.


Agla notable resistance 142.38 par hai, jo agar surpass hota hai, to USD/JPY 143.00 ke psychological barrier ki taraf move kar sakta hai.


Resistance levels traders ke liye important hain, kyunki yeh profit-taking ke targets ya potential reversals ke areas ho sakte hain.


Agar price confidently inke upar move karta hai, to yeh market mein buyers ko attract kar sakta hai.


Potential Downside Risks


Market risks se free nahi hai.


Agar price 141.40 ke neeche girta hai, to yeh sentiment shift ko signal kar sakta hai.


Traders 140.80 ko next support level ke roop mein dekhte hain.


Yeh support area buyers ko value ki talash mein attract kar sakti hai.


Lekin agar yeh support fail hota hai, to pair 140 ke psychological level ki taraf gir sakta hai.


Is level ke neeche break hone se pair ki strength par concerns raise ho sakte hain.





Market Influencers


Kai factors USD/JPY pair ke movements ko influence kar sakte hain.


Interest rate differentials, economic data releases, aur geopolitical developments.


Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policy decisions bhi impactful hoti hain.


BoJ ki accommodative stance aur Federal Reserve ki tightening signal se USD JPY ke against strengthen ho sakta hai.


Economic indicators jaise GDP growth rates, employment data, aur inflation figures bhi market ko sway kar sakte hain.


US economy se positive data USD ki confidence ko bolster kar sakta hai.


Japan se weaker data JPY ko further depress kar sakta hai

USD/JPY Ka Peshgoi:** USD/JPY ka jorha iss waqt din ke opening level 143.59 se neeche trade kar raha hai lekin daily Pivot Point 142.73 se upar hai, jo trading din ke ek thoda bearish shuruaat ko dikhata hai lekin key technical levels ke qareeb support ko barkarar rakhta hai. Yeh mawaqif is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke haalaat aur price action ke mutabiq dono taraf (upar ya neeche) move karne ki sambhawnayein hain.

**Market Overview aur Technical Indicators**

Iss waqt, USD/JPY jorhe ke liye primary technical indicators upward direction ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bullish momentum abhi bhi chala raha hai. Price major trend line ke upar position mein hai, jo ke upward trend ke aage barhne ke liye mazid support faraham karta hai. Lekin, iske bawajood trading volume mein noticeable decline dekha gaya hai. Yeh volume ka girna consolidation ya traders mein indecision ka ishara ho sakta hai, kyunki aise haalaat mein aam tor par low volume dekha jata hai.

Price action ke aas paas 143.59 mark ek aham point hai jise dekhna zaroori hoga. Yeh level, jo trading session ka opening level hai, traders ke liye ek psychological benchmark hai, jo iss ke aas paas price ka behavior dekhte hue pair ki strength ka andaza lagayenge. Abhi ke liye, price is level se neeche trade kar raha hai, lekin daily Pivot Point 142.73 se upar rehne se yeh lagta hai ke pair near-term support dhoond raha hai.

**Resistance aur Support Levels**

USD/JPY pair ke agle directional move ko anticipate karne ke liye resistance aur support ke key levels bohot ahem hain. Agar price 143.91 se upar chali jati hai, to yeh ek upside breakout ka signal ho sakta hai, jo further rally ko invite karega. Is case mein, pair ka immediate resistance level 144.01 hoga. Agar yeh upward momentum barhkar 144.01 se aage rehta hai, to ek mazid rally extension dekhi ja sakti hai jisme price ka agla target 144.51 hoga.

Dusri taraf, agar USD/JPY jorha 143.91 ko paar karne mein nakam rahta hai aur 142.93 se neeche girta hai, to outlook bearish ho sakta hai. Is level ke neeche girne se pair support level 142.41 ko test karega. Agar selling pressure mazid barhta hai, to pair apni giraawat ko agle key support 141.62 ki taraf barha sakta hai, jo buyers ke market mein dobara dakhil hone ke liye ek mazboot floor ban sakta hai.

**Key Scenarios aur Trading Strategies**

Maujooda market conditions ko dekhte hue, traders ko USD/JPY trade karte waqt bullish aur bearish dono scenarios ko madde nazar rakhte hue apni strategies develop karni chahiyein. Agar price 143.91 se upar jati hai, to yeh aur zyada buyers ko attract kar sakta hai, jo long positions ke liye ek mouqa ho sakta hai jisme targets 144.01 aur 144.51 ke resistance levels honge. Iss upward move ki tasdiq tab hogi jab volume mein izafa aur mazid bullish momentum nazar aayega.

Iss ke baraks, traders ko ek potential downturn ke liye bhi tayar rehna chahiye, khaaskar agar price 142.93 se neeche break karti hai. Aise scenario mein, short positions favorable ho sakti hain, jisme targets 142.41 aur 141.62 honge. Volume ka girna short-term pullback ke possibility ko barhawa de sakta hai, khaaskar agar price trend line ke upar apni position ko maintain karne mein nakam hoti hai

Forex ko samajhne ke liye USD/JPY ke prices

Main real time mein USD/JPY currency pair ki dynamic pricing behavior ko dekh raha tha. Main dollar-yen pair ko chaar ghante ke chart par analyze kar raha hoon. Pair ne doosre profit-taking ke baad izafa kiya, jahan buyer ne actively profits lena jaari rakha. Lekin, pehle ke correction highs update hone ke baad koi significant profit-taking nahi hui. Is ke bawajood, pair bina kisi rukawat ke barh gaya, aur week ke end par ek zyada substantial pullback aaya. Pair ne 160.756 ke support level ko touch kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke yeh support se barh sakta hai aur 164.318 tak resistance ka samna kar sakta hai. Maine resistance line se bearish pullback ko accurately predict kiya aur breakdown area par Friday ko around 160.115 ko dekha. Lekin short position kholne se pehle, maine channel ki resistance line ki taraf "bullish doji" ka intezar kiya, taake possible puncture ke baad pullback ki ummeed kar saku.

Ek theory ka samna aaya jo keh rahi thi ke latecomers jo market mein long positions khol rahe hain, woh trend ke sath aur long positions ko barhate hain. Is market perspective aur channel resistance zone mein bearish divergence ke bawajood, maine apni sell limit ko chhupaya aur trading setup ka intezar kiya. Afsos, expected movement nahi hui aur market ne channel resistance strength ko test kiye bina pullback kiya. Maine market mein hastily entry se bacha aur cautious raha. Isliye, jab ke maine Friday ko bearish pullback ko sahi se identify kiya, maine isko trade nahi kiya aur poora decline market ke bahar dekha. Mujhe 160.06 level ke neeche price secure nahi karne ka afsos hai. Lekin, main maanata hoon ke shayad maine zyada der tak intezar kiya aur sab kuch tez se nahi hua. Isliye, main apni downward movement ki outlook ko barqarar rakhta hoon, aur samajhta hoon ke ab hume 154.57 se 161.97 tak ke growth cycle mein corrective movement par focus karna chahiye. Agar yeh reasoning sahi hoti hai, to hume 38.2 level (159.14) ka test dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Usd/jpy
Agar USD/JPY ki qeemat 156.88 se ooper chali jati hai, to iska matlab hai ke kharidaar ek naye uptrend ki taraf ja rahe hain jo ke critical 157.23 resistance level ko chhoo raha hai. Ye level bohot ahem hai kyunke ye mazeed qeemat ke barhne mein rukawat paida karta hai. Agar qeemat is level ko paar kar leti hai, to ye strong bullish momentum ka ishara hai, jo dikhata hai ke kharidaar control mein hain aur kharidari jaari rakhne ka irada rakhte hain. Isse qeemat mein mazeed izafa hoga. Jab qeemat in resistance levels ko paar karti hai, to ye market ka confidence dikhata hai ke upward movement ho rahi hai. Traders is progression ko ek positiveAhem: Khareedne se pehle, yaqeeni banayein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke oopar hai aur sirf is se upar rawana hone wala hai. Main USD/JPY ko bhi khareedne ka irada rakhta hoon agar MACD indicator oversold region mein hota hai aur 156.56 ke keemat par do mawqay ke imtehaan hote hain. Ye jodi ke neeche ke potential ko mehdood karega aur upar ki market ki rukh ko palat sakta hai. 156.80 aur 157.15 ke levels par izafa ki umeed hai. Aaj, main sirf is par pair ko bechne ka irada rakhta hoon jab yeh 156.56 ke level se neeche girta hai (graph par laal line ke nazdeek), jo jodi mein foran giravat paida karta hai. Farokht karne walon ke liye asal target 156.30 hoga, jahan par main farokht band karne aur kharid-dari ka darwaza kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, 20-25 points ke ooper ki ek harkat ka intezar karte hue us level se. Agar jodi daily high ke aas paas qaim nahi hoti to farokht ki dabao wapas aa sakti hai. Ahem: Farokht karne se pehle, yaqeeni banayein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche hai aur sirf is se neeche rawana hone wala hai. Agar MACD indicator overbought area mein hota hai aur 156.80 ke keemat par do mawqay ke imtehaan hote hain, to aaj main bhi USD/JPY ko bechnay ka irada rakhta hoon. Ye jodi ke upar ke potential ko mehdood karega aur neeche ki market ki rukh ko palat sakta hai. 156.56 aur 156.30 ke levels par giravat ki umeed hai. Jab diary update ki gayi, keemat waqtan-fa-waqt 156.99 par tham gayi. Kharid-dar ka control mazboot nazar aata hai, jo ke prices ko upar aur haftawar ki kam se kam zone se door kar raha sign ke tor par dekhte hain, jo dikhata hai ke kharidaar zyada taqatwar ho rahe hain aur apni qeemat ko mazeed ooper push karne ka hausla rakhte hain. 157.30 level par, kharidaar khaas tor par mazboot hain, aur unki mojoodgi bullish sentiment ko reinforce karti hai.

156.88 level ko paar karna USD/JPY pair ke liye naye upward trend ki shuruaat ko zahir karta hai. Traders is movement ko ghaur se dekhte hain jab ye 157.23 resistance level ke kareeb pohonchti hai. Agar ye level paar ho jata hai, to ye strong bullish momentum ko zahir karta hai aur market mein kharidaaron ke confidence ko mazboot banata hai. In resistance levels ke paar hone ki progression kharidaaron ki barhati hui taqat ko dikhata hai, khaas tor par unki mojoodgi 157.30 level par.Mukhtalif taur par, USD/JPY pair ne bhi 155.89 ke level par mazboot sahara paaya hai. Ye sahara level qeemat ko mazeed girne se rokta hai. Agar qeemat is level se neeche gir jaati hai, to agla nichey ka target doosra sahara level 155.57 hoga. Is level ko torne se bearish dabao barhne ki alaamat ho sakti hai, aur traders mazeed kami ka intezar kar sakte hain. Ye doosra sahara level ahem hoga ke bearish trend jari rahega ya qeemat phir se oopar uthay gi. In sahara aur resistance levels ke darmiyan interaction traders ko potential market movements ke bare mein ahem maloomat faraham karta hai. Misal ke taur par, jab qeemat kisi resistance level ke qareeb aati hai, traders breakout ya reversal ke nishan dekhenge. Resistance level ke oopar breakout taqatwar bullish jazbaat ki alaamat ho sakta hai aur mazeed faida hone ki sambhavna ho sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar qeemat resistance se guzarne mein nakami ka samna kare, to ye ek reversal aur mazeed kami ki sambhavna ko darust kar sakta hai.

USD JPY

Introduction

Price test jo 143.76 par hua, wo ek important technical level tha. Yeh support level ke saath saath MACD indicator ka zero mark se upward move hona bhi ek strong buy signal tha. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ek aisa trend-following momentum indicator hai jo security ki price ke do moving averages ke darmiyan taluq dikhata hai. Jab MACD zero line ke upar cross karta hai, to yeh bullish momentum ka indication hota hai. Is case mein, MACD ka upward movement 143.76 par buy trade ke liye entry point ki taraf ishara kar raha tha.

Jaise hi price is entry point se upar chali gayi, wo jaldi se 144.00 mark ko paar karti hui 144.24 level tak pohnch gayi, jo agla resistance point tha. 143.76 se 144.24 tak ki movement, jo ke 50 pips ki gain thi, yeh buy trade ke valid hone ka saboot thi. Aise sharp aur tezi se badalti price movements forex market mein aam hain, khas kar jab technical levels aur indicators market sentiment ke saath align karte hain.

Is trade ki safalta yeh sabit karti hai ke technical indicators jaise MACD se confirmation lene ke baad hi trade mein ghusna zaroori hai. Yeh bhi dikhata hai ke support, resistance aur momentum indicators ka combination trade timing mein kitna important hai.
Reversal Trade


144.24 par, forecast ke mutabiq, dollar ko immediately sell karna tha jab price rebound karti. Yeh jahan pe technical analysis phir se zaroori ho gaya. Resistance levels, jaise ke 144.24, aise points hote hain jahan upward momentum ruk jata hai kyunki sellers market mein enter karte hain, yeh samajhte hue ke price itni zyada ho gayi hai ke wo bullish trend ko maintain nahi kar sakti. Is level par dollar bechne ka faisla in established resistance levels par base tha, aur pullback ke hone ki anticipation thi, jo ke strong rally ke baad aam baat hoti hai.

Jaise hi price ne rebound liya, traders ne downward movement ka faida uthaya, aur doosri 50-pip profit secure ki. Yeh price action ek achi timing se sell decision ko dikhata hai, khas kar jab market ne resistance level ke technical constraints ko respect kiya. Yeh movement bhi dikhata hai ke markets key levels ko respect karte hain, khas kar jab dusre confirming signals jaise momentum indicators aur overbought/oversold conditions bhi saath ho.
Japanese PMI Data ka Asar


Technical factors ke saath saath, fundamental aspects bhi market behavior mein ahm role play karte hain. Japan ka manufacturing PMI data expected se kam aaya, jo country ke manufacturing sector mein slowdown ko show karta hai. Yeh negative data directly JPY ki performance par asar dalta hai, khas kar jab yeh economy ke sentiments ko weak karta hai. Manufacturing PMI ke forecast se kam aane se yen par confidence kam ho gaya, jo ke stronger USD/JPY rate ko support karta hai.

Lekin, manufacturing data ke disappoint hone ke bawajood, Japan ke services PMI ne comparatively achha perform kiya. Services PMI aksar consumer sentiment aur business confidence ko reflect karta hai, jo manufacturing ke weak hone ko counterbalance kar sakta hai. Lekin is positive data ke bawajood, market yen ke against negative sentiment ko reverse karne mein successful nahi hua.


Summary yeh hai ke 143.76 par jo technical setup tha, jo MACD indicator ke confirmation ke saath tha, usne USD/JPY mein buying ka exact entry point diya. Price break hone par 144.24 ne profits lock karne ka mauka diya, jab ke subsequent rebound ne sell trade karne ka bhi achha waqt diya. Fundamental backdrop, jo Japan ke weak manufacturing PMI data pe mabni tha, usne yen par additional pressure dala aur dollar ki strength ko reinforce kiya. Lekin services PMI ke positive data ke bawajood, yen pressure mein rahi, jo technical aur fundamental analysis ke complex interplay ko dikhata hai jo currency movements ko drive karta hai.

USD / JPY Technical Analysis:

Japanese Yen (JPY) ne Monday ko US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf apni position ko mazboot kiya, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke liye potential challenges ki spekuleishan se. Jabke BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne December ke next policy meeting mein rate hike ki possibility ka ishara diya, market ke participants cautious rahe. Mazeed geopolitical tensions aur mehdood US economic data ne safe-haven Yen ke liye barhne wali demand mein izafa kiya. US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate ka farq kam hona bhi Yen ke downside ko roka. Mazeed, ek kamzor US Dollar, jo Federal Reserve rate cut ki aane wali umeed aur "Trump trade" ke unwinding se chal raha hai, ne USD/JPY pair par dabao dala. Takneekati nazar se, 152.00 level USD/JPY ke liye fori support ka kaam karta hai. Is level ke neeche giravat ek mazeed decline ko trigger kar sakta hai, jise pair ko 151.00 level aur 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke qareeb 150.30 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. 150.00 psychological level ke neeche tafseel se girne ka darwaza khul sakta hai.
USD / JPY H4 Chart:



Upar ki taraf, raat bhar ke swing highs ke around, 152.55-152.60 area ke sustained move se USD/JPY ko 153.00 level ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Mazeed izafe ke liye 153.35-153.40 supply zone aur pichle haftay tak pohanchi gayi three-month high ki taraf jaa sakti hai. Is level ke tajawuz se ek naya bullish momentum signal hoga. Takneekati indicators daily chart par musbat territory mein rehne ke saath, overall bias USD/JPY ke liye bullish hai. Agla significant resistance level 154.60-154.70 area ke qareeb hai, uske baad 155.00 psychological level aata hai. Traders ko fundamentals data ko carefully monitor karna chahiye aur market se pips lena chahiye.

USD/JPY ne Monday ke din, Asian session ki shuruat mein -0.9% girawat dekhi. USD/JPY ki is waqt ki intraday kamzori Trump ke Harris par jeet ke chances ke girne ke sath mutabiq hai. Kuch technical indicators bearish ho gaye the, jab weekend par Trump ke jeetne ke chances kam huye, jo US dollar ki yen ke muqablay mein taqat mein rukawat ke nishan de rahe hain.
Yeh analysis humari pehle ki report "USD/JPY Technicals: 4 Weeks of Persistent JPY Weakness Led by Political Factors" ka follow-up hai, jo 25 October 2024 ko publish hui thi. USD/JPY ne 153.80 par intermediate resistance ko touch kiya, jab ke 28 October ko intraday high 153.88 tha.

USD/JPY ne koi aage nahi barhayi jab woh 153.80 ke upar clear break lene ki koshish kar raha tha, jo Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke Thursday, 31 October ko aayi recent monetary policy decision ke sath tha. BoJ ke Governor Ueda ne yeh kaha tha ke Japan ka central bank apni ultra-accommodative monetary policy ko normalize karne ki taraf committed hai, aur agar economic data unki forecast ke mutabiq hua, toh woh interest rates dhire dhire barhate jayenge. Yeh statement Japan mein political uncertainty ke bawajood tha, jahan Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ne lower house parliament mein apne coalition seats kaafi kho diye the. Trump ki jeet ke chances ke girne ke baad Trump Trade mein thoda easing aayi thi.

1: Candidates' chances of winning the US presidential election on November 4, 2024 (Source: Polymarket) Fig. Global markets ko bhi pichlay chaar hafton se 5 November ko hone wale US presidential election ke potential results se asar pada hai.

"Trump Trade" ki kahani, jo US dollar ko mazid taqatwar kar rahi thi US Treasury yields ke badhne se, aur jiski wajah se yield premium spread baaki duniya ke treasuries ke muqablay mein barh gaya, Polymarket ke betting rates ke sath bilkul mutabiq thi. Polymarket ek mashhoor betting market hai jo global macro traders USA ke presidential election ke liye dekhte hain.

18 October se 31 October tak, betting odds ne yeh dikhaya tha ke Republican presidential candidate Trump ke jeetne ke chances 60% se zyada the, aur 30 October ko yeh 67% tak barh gaye, jis waqt USD/JPY mein 2.6% ka izafa dekha gaya.

Trump ke jeetne ke chances weekend ke dauran 60% se neeche gir gaye, aur 3 November, Sunday ko yeh 53.8% tak pohnch gaye. Phir yeh thoda barh kar 56.9% tak aa gaya (dekhain Figure 1).

Dilchasp baat yeh thi ke weekend par Trump ke jeetne ke chances girne par US Dollar mein selling hui, aur iski wajah se aaj ke Asian session ki shuruat mein USD/JPY mein -0.91% ki girawat dekhi gayi. USD/JPY ne 151.60 tak girawat dekhi aur phir thoda recover karte hue 152.00 tak pohonch gaya, jab yeh article likha ja raha tha.

USD/JPY Market Analysis Tuesday, November 5, 2024

H4 Hour
4-hour chart par jo observations hain, unse yeh pata chalta hai ke USD/JPY pair ne bullish trend ko continue karne ki koshish ki hai. Lekin last night ki trading session mein seller resistance ka samna hua, jiski wajah se price neeche ki taraf correct hua. Iske baad, price ko dubara upar push karne ki koshish ki gayi, jisse price phir se Simple Moving Average indicator ke kareeb aayi. Pichlay kuch dinon mein market bullish direction mein zyada dominant dikhayi di hai. Monitoring ke mutabiq, yeh bhi dekha gaya ke October ke shuruat mein yeh currency pair bearish conditions mein tha, lekin yeh movement lambi der tak nahi chal paayi aur bullish trend ki taraf mud gaya.

Jab market Monday night se Tuesday night tak gaya, bullish movements abhi tak nazar nahi aaye kyun ke seller pressure tha. Lekin agar aap chart ka major trend dekhen, toh price movement pichlay kuch hafton se bullish condition mein hai, kyun ke buyers ne price ko successfully upar push kiya hai. Agar aap larger timeframe ka use kar ke market conditions dekhen, toh market abhi bhi bullish nazar aata hai. Last night ki trading session mein jo price drop hui thi, wo sirf temporary corrective movement thi. USD/JPY currency pair ko is hafte monitor karte hue, yeh dekha gaya ke market abhi neeche move kar raha hai, lekin price ki increase ne candlestick ko upar push kiya hai.

Aaj ki trading session tak, buyers ke taraf se abhi bhi buying pressure dikhayi de raha hai taake price upar ki taraf barhe. USD/JPY pair kaafi possible hai ke phir se increase ho. Pichlay teen hafton ke price movement structure ko dekhen, toh bullish candlestick ban rahi hai aur meri raaye mein yeh abhi bhi potential rakhta hai ke yeh higher levels ki taraf barhe. Price ke upar move karne ke chances hain, jo higher level range ko target karega.

Conclusion:
Is week ke shuruati market session mein, lagta hai ke price increase karne ke liye open hai aur candlestick weekly low 151.55 ko cross karne ki koshish kar sakti hai. Price jo Simple Moving Average 150 indicator (red) ke neeche nahi gaya, wo trend ko bullish direction mein dobara move karne ka indication de raha hai.

BUY Transaction Level:
Agar aap buying karna chahte hain, toh 152.55 ke range se buy kar sakte hain, khaas kar agar aap increase target kar rahe hain. Aapka nearest resistance level 153.30 ho sakta hai. Risk limit ka placement price 152.05 pe rakhna chahiye. Agar buyer bullish target level tak pahuchta hai, toh price further increase karne ke liye zyada potential rakhta hai.

H4 Timeframe Monitor:
USD/JPY chart ke H4 timeframe ko dekhte hue, buyers ne push dene ki koshish ki hai jisse candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 60 indicator (yellow) ke upar penetrate kiya ja sake.

USD/JPY currency pair is waqt 152.16 ke aas-paas trade ho raha hai, uss volatile session ke baad jahan sellers prices ko 151.54 ke neeche push karne mein naakam rahe. Market sentiment abhi cautious hai, kyun ke U.S. presidential election aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate decision ka intezaar hai. Immediate support level 151.50 par hai, aur major support level 151.05 par. Resistance levels 152.55 aur 153.00 par hain, jab ke ek critical upper boundary 153.35 par hai. Agar prices is upper resistance ke neeche rakhte hain, toh yeh bearish trend ka signal de sakta hai.
USD/JPY ke liye jo current fundamental landscape hai, wo domestic economic conditions aur global events ka mix hai. Aane wale U.S. presidential election mein, jahan Democratic aur Republican candidates ke beech opinion polls mein kaafi close race hai, yeh ek key factor hai. Election results ke aas-paas uncertainty se financial markets mein volatility barh sakti hai, khaas kar USD/JPY pair ke liye. Iske ilawa, candidates ke proposed policies, jaise ke Trump ke immigration plans, tax cuts, aur tariffs, inflation, bond yields, aur U.S. dollar ki value ko affect kar sakti hain. Federal Reserve ki interest rates ke baare mein stance bhi U.S. dollar ki value par bohot asar daalega.

Is hafte ke aane wale economic events U.S. dollar ko kamzor kar sakte hain aur USD/JPY exchange rate ko impact kar sakte hain. Key economic indicators jaise inflation, employment, aur manufacturing data, dono U.S. aur Japan se, investor sentiment aur market dynamics ko shape karenge.



Technical Analysis:
Technically, USD/JPY currency pair ek critical price range mein move kar raha hai, jahan significant support aur resistance levels iski trajectory ko influence kar rahe hain. Recent price action lower time frames mein downward trend dikhata hai, khaas kar hourly chart par, jahan neeche ki taraf ek gap bana hai. Yeh gap yeh suggest karta hai ke buyers control gain karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahe hain, aur sellers ki strength market mein abhi bhi dominant hai. 200-day simple moving average abhi uptrend ko support karne mein struggle kar raha hai, jo momentum shift ke potential ko indicate karta hai.

Immediate support level 151.50 bohot zaroori hai; agar yeh breach hota hai, toh bearish trend ka signal mil sakta hai, jo 151.05 ke substantial support level ko test karwa sakta hai. Resistance side par, 152.55 aur 153.00 short-term obstacles hain, jab ke pivotal resistance level 153.35 pair ke direction ko medium term mein decide kar sakta hai. Agar price specified level ke neeche rehti hai, toh negative market sentiment ko support milega. Lekin agar price neeche wale gap se upar jaati hai, toh traders price mein aane wale increase ki ummid karenge.

Japanese Yen (JPY) ne Monday ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein taqat hasil ki, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke monetary policy ko mazeed tighten karne mein mushkilat hone ke hawalay se speculation ki wajah se tha. BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne December mein hone wale next policy meeting mein interest rate barhane ka imkān bhi diya, lekin market participants abhi bhi cautious hain. Is ke ilawa, geopolitical tensions aur limited US economic data ki wajah se safe-haven Yen ki demand barh gayi. US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate differential ka narrowing bhi Yen ke downside ko limit kar raha hai. Dusri taraf, US Dollar ki kamzori, jo Federal Reserve ke upcoming rate cut ke expectations aur "Trump trade" ke unwinding ke wajah se thi, ne USD/JPY pair par pressure daala.


Technical Perspective:
Technical taur par, USD/JPY ke liye 152.00 level immediate support ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh pair further decline kar sakta hai, jo 151.00 level aur 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke paas 150.30 tak push kar sakta hai. Agar psychological 150.00 level ke neeche decisive break hota hai, toh yeh zyada significant downside ka signal de sakta hai.

Upside Potential:
Upar ki taraf, agar USD/JPY overnight swing highs ke upar sustainable move karta hai, jo ke 152.55-152.60 area ke aas paas hai, toh yeh USD/JPY ko 153.00 level ki taraf le jaa sakta hai. Further gains se 153.35-153.40 supply zone aur pichlay hafte ke three-month high ko target kiya jaa sakta hai. Agar is level ke upar decisive break hota hai, toh yeh renewed bullish momentum ka signal dega. Daily chart par technical indicators abhi bhi positive territory mein hain, is liye overall bias USD/JPY ka bullish hai. Agla significant resistance level 154.60-154.70 ke aas paas hai, uske baad 155.00 ka psychological level hai.

Traders ko fundamentals data ko dhyan se monitor karna chahiye aur market se pips grab karna chahiye.