Eur/usd

EUR/USD ANALYSIS 09 JULY 2024




EUR/USD currency pair M15 timeframe par acha signal dikhata hai, ab analysis karte hain. EUR/USD ki keemat ne resistance ke ooper chadha hai, jis se maloom hota hai ke khareedne walay bazaar mein qabu qaim kar rahe hain. EUR/USD ki ab tak kam tar keemat 1.08241 hai, jo pichli kam tar keemat 1.08216 se oonchi hai, yeh movement yeh bataata hai ke EUR/USD ki keemat mein urooj hai, is liye ab kharidne ke mauqe ki talash hai.

EUR/USD ki keemat ke barhne ko abhi bhi base supply rok rahi hai. Abhi EUR/USD ki keemat upper Bollinger bands ke aas paas ghoom rahi hai, is liye ab niche middle Bollinger bands ki taraf jaana hai. EUR/USD ki keemat mein mazeed mazbooti aur mustawazai barhne se yeh overbought hai, jo ke stochastic oscillator ke level 80 ke ooper hai, is liye ab level 20 ki taraf jaana hai. Bollinger Bands aur Stochastic Oscillator ke indicators se dekha gaya to EUR/USD ki keemat correction ke liye neeche jaegi.

EUR/USD ki keemat ki tafseeli tafteesh ke natayej mein yeh pata chalta hai ke trend ke saath ooper jaegi. Halaanki aap yakeen rakhte hain ke EUR/USD ki keemat mazboot hogi, toh turant kharidne ki transaction na karen. Sabr rakhen aur EUR/USD ki keemat ko base demand tak neeche jaate hue dekhen, sahi keemat hasil karne ke liye. Khareedne ki transaction kar sakte hain agar bullish pinbar ya engulfing candle se tasdeeq ho aur candle body base demand ke ooper ho, price loss limit base demand ke neeche 1.08240 aur take profit base supply ke neeche 1.08410 ke qareeb rakhen jo abhi taza hai. Agar EUR/USD ki keemat base demand se neeche jaati hai, toh khareedne ka signal khatam ho jata hai kyunki trend palat gaya hai.

Agar EUR/USD ki keemat base demand ko chhu ke ya usmein dakhil hone se pehle seedha ooper chali jaati hai, toh khareedne ki transaction karne ki zid na karen kyunki isne takneeki shuruhwat poori nahi ki hai. Transaction sell limit order ke saath kiya ja sakta hai jo base supply ke neeche 1.08410 par hai kyunki EUR/USD ki keemat abhi overbought hai, price loss limit base supply ke ooper 1.08454 aur take profit base demand ke ooper 1.08257 par rakhen.

Kal ke trading session mein, UsdJpy market ko aik choti range ke saath upar dekha gaya tha aur yeh resistance zone 161.00 ko test kar sakta hai. Magar jab price us level tak pahuncha, toh wahaan ek neeche ki correction hui ek choti range ke saath jis se yeh pata chalta hai ke market mein abhi bhi price increase ka chance hai. Is haftay ke shuruaati dinon mein, market ne bullish side ki taraf ka safar kiya. Bas yeh increase jo is haftay mein hua, itna mazboot nahi tha. Agla hafta ke darmiyan mein aur bhi zyada volatile safar ho sakta hai.

Yeh dekha gaya hai ke ab tak ek bade time frame mein market ka trend bullish hai, maine yeh situation daily aur 4-hour time frame charts ke zariye dekha hai. Bas pechle haftay ke ant mein ek mazboot prayas dekha gaya tha seller ka jo price ko neeche le jane ki koshish ki jab tak market correction nahi hui. Stochastic indicator 5,3,3 80 zone ko chu chuka hai jis se yeh pata chalta hai ke buyers mein control hai. Agar is haftay UsdJpy ka price strong karne ki koshish karta hai, toh lagta hai ke main trend ko bullish side ki taraf continue kiya ja sakta hai.

Agar usual cheezon par nazar daali jaye, toh aksar darmiyan mein hafte mein high volatility ke movements hote hain aur market mein price ka safar abhi bhi bullish side ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Price pe pichle kuch dinon se upar ja rahi hai, matlab ke ek bullish trend ka expectation kiya ja sakta hai. Kyunki long-term sentiment Uptrend ki taraf tend karti hai, behtar hai ke buyers ke control mein hone wale market par focus kiya jaaye. Shayad buyers price ko phir se upar le jane ke liye 161.46 zone ko test karna chahte hain.

EUR/USD mein ooper rawan trend ke alamat mojood hain, lekin ye maqsood hai ke 1.0740 ke level tak pohanchne se pehle ek behtar mauqaa bechne ka samna hai. Ye izafa mutwaliya qarar kiya gaya hai, jahan 1.0740 mark girawat trend ko ulta karne ke liye aham hai. Is level ke ooper mazeed izafa mumkin nahi samjha jata hai. Market volume mein bhi itna dastoor hai ke daily market mein mazeed girawat ke raaste ko madad mile gi.
Isi ke sath, 1.0749 level ko aham buland maana jata hai, jo ke agle haftay tak pohanch sakta hai. H4 chart par "double top" pattern phir bhi izafa ke mumkinat ko dikhata hai, lekin iss pattern ki taqat agle haftay ke tashkeel tak bhi rae rehti hai. Baharwai masail, jaise ke Itwaar ke maqamaat aur French elections, jodi ke keemat mein kami ka baais hosakta hai. Chhotay arsay ke aarzi tabdeeliyon ke bawajood, puri girawat ka imkaan raehta hai.
Mausam ke hisab se, 1.0739 level barqarar hai, aur yahan se guzar jaane ka ishara madiyum term ooper mudi hui girawat ke liye hosakta hai. Magar jab US interest rate zyada hai, to EUR/USD jodi ki farokht asan hai. Technical nazariye se, jodi se dobara girawat ki umeed hai, jis ke natijay mein 1.0679 ke qareeb pohanch sakta hai. Euro/dollar exchange rate 1.0711 par band hui, jo ke 6/7 Murray reversal level ke mutabiq hai.
Is technical tajziye ke mutabiq, EUR/USD jodi mojooda positions aur zyada se zyada pohanch ke baad apni girawat ko dobara shuru kar sakti hai. umeed hai ke haftay ke agle dour mein kam az kam 2/7 Murray reversal level ki jaanch par uthaya jaye, jis ke natijay mein 6th figure ke darmiyan pohanchne ki mumkinat hai. Yeh tajziye batata hai ke jab ke chhotay arsay ke ooper rawan harkat ho sakti hai, lekin EUR/USD jodi ki kul raftar neeche ki taraf mutawaqa hai,

Good day. Kal Euro/Dollar pair apni upward trajectory ko continue karta raha, jo matlab hai ke downward movement ka potential is waqt sirf choti local declines tak limited hai. Daily chart par price ne Bollinger Bands channel ke bullish zone mein close kiya. Magar agar price reverse karti hai aur agle kuch dinon mein bearish zone mein wapas aati hai, toh humein zyada significant downward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Hourly chart par indicators abhi bhi upwards point kar rahe hain. Interesting baat yeh hai ke kal ka close Bollinger Bands channel ke outer band ke upar tha, jo strong bullish trend ko indicate karta hai. Aaj, pair ek corrective move ke taur par middle band ke qareeb aa gaya hai. Agle kuch sessions future direction ko determine karne ke liye crucial honge. Agar price middle band ko break karti hai, toh yeh further bullish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar price bounce back karti hai, toh yeh current correction ka continuation indicate kar sakta hai.

4-hour chart bhi similar outlook present karta hai. Is timeframe par indicators bhi continued upward movement ko suggest karte hain. Magar, Bollinger Bands channel restructuring ke signs show kar raha hai, jo typically ek possible local correction ko suggest karta hai. Additionally, ek basement indicator ne bearish divergence show ki hai, jo potential short-term move to the south ko hint karta hai. Yeh bearish divergence yeh indicate karta hai ke jabke price higher highs bana rahi hai, indicator aisa nahi kar raha, jo weakening momentum ko signal karta hai. In technical signals ko dekhte hue, ek short-term move to the downside plausible lagti hai. Is move ka target shayad previously broken upper boundary of the triangle pattern ka test ho sakta hai. Agar price is level tak reach karti hai, toh yeh support ka kaam karega.

Technical analysis mein ghusne ke liye, broader market context ko samajhna zaroori hai. Euro/Dollar pair ki movements various factors se influenced hoti hain, jismein economic data releases, geopolitical developments, aur central bank policies shamil hain. For instance, Eurozone aur United States se recent economic indicators pair ke direction ko impact kar sakte hain. Eurozone se positive economic data Euro ko strengthen kar sakta hai, jisse pair higher push hota hai, jabke strong US economic data ka opposite effect ho sakta hai. Central bank policies bhi crucial role play karti hain. European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ka Euro/Dollar pair par significant influence hota hai. Interest rates ya monetary policy mein changes ke hints se pair mein substantial movements ho sakti hain. Traders aur investors closely ECB aur Fed officials ke statements ko monitor karte hain future policy actions ke clues ke liye.

Geopolitical developments, jaise trade negotiations, political events, aur international conflicts bhi Euro/Dollar pair ko impact kar sakte hain. For example, major economies ke beech tensions ya trade agreements ke surrounding uncertainties forex market mein increased volatility ko lead kar sakti hain. In fundamental factors ke ilawa, technical analysis tools jaise moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur Fibonacci retracement levels potential support aur resistance levels, trend reversals, aur entry aur exit points ko identify karne ke liye use hote hain. In tools ko Bollinger Bands aur divergence indicators ke sath combine karke market ka ek more comprehensive view mil sakta hai.

EUR/USD Fundamentals outlook.
Kal hum ne EUR/USD mein bara bullish movement dekha, jab USA se negative data aya aur ab EUR/USD tezi se upar ja raha hai jab Greenback ki flow reverse course ho rahi hai.
US data broadly misses the mark, sparking risk appetite on rate cut hopes.
US holiday looms ahead of Friday’s NFP US data dump.
EUR/USD ne Wednesday ko ek leg up paya, briefly 1.0800 handle ke upar chadh gaya, jab US ki arthik figures mein broad miss ne ishara diya ki US ki arthvyavastha aur kamzor ho sakti hai, aur isse Federal Reserve (Fed) se rate cuts ki tezi se ummeed jagi, jisse market safe haven US Dollar se bahar nikal raha hai.
European data bhi Thursday ke early hours mein mixed aaya, jahan pan-EU HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) June mein 50.9 MoM par aaya, forecasted 50.8 ke mukable. EU-wide Producer Price Index May mein bhi expected se zyada tivr gira, -0.2% MoM ke mukable forecasted -0.1%.

US ADP Employment Change June mein 150K par aaya, previous month ke 157K se kam aur forecasted 160K se miss. ADP report mein bhi pata chala ki kai job additions lower-paying leisure aur hospitality industries mein concentrate the.

Additionaly, US Initial Jobless Claims June 28 tak pohanch kar 238K ho gaye, previous week ke 233K ke mukable, jisme forecasted 235K tha. Initial Jobless Claims ke four-week average bhi 238.5K ho gaye 236.25K ke mukable.

Akhri mein, US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) June mein 48.8 par gir gaya, jo June 2020 se lowest level hai. ISM Services PMI previous month ke 53.8 se gira, jisme forecasted 52.5 tha.

US markets Thursday ko dark rahenge kyun ki US Independence Day holiday hai, jisse Fiber traders ko German Factory Orders se deal karna hoga, jise May mein -0.2% se 0.5% MoM par rebound hone ka forecast hai. EUR/USD traders UK Parliamentary Elections ke result ke knock-on volatility ko bhi dekh rahe honge.

EUR/USD technical outlook.

EUR/USD ne ek recent bullish bounce extend kiya hai, jo ek demand zone se neeche 1.0680 ke price se shuru hua tha, aur briefly 1.0800 ke upar chart territory test kiya. Pair near-term mein further bullish hai, jo 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0734 ke upar accelerate kar raha hai

Hafta Mein Market Ki Soorat-e-Haal
Is hafta market mein ek noteworthy upward correction dekhi gayi hai, lekin EUR/USD pair ne 100-period simple moving average (SMA) line ko choone se parhez kiya hai, jo ke monthly trend mein persistent bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai. EUR/USD chart ka tajziya ek ma'loom bearish pattern ko zaahir karta hai jo ke guzishta do hafton mein unfold hota dekhai diya hai, yeh dikhata hai ke farokhton ka dabao barqarar hai jo ke prices ko critical 100-period SMA threshold ke neeche rakhne ki koshish kar rahe hain
June ka aghaz 100-period SMA line ke neeche girawat se hua, jo ke prevailing bearish market sentiment ka ishara tha aur yeh recent hafton tak barqarar raha. Pichle haftay buyers ke taraf se kuch koshish ki gayi thi ke prices ko barhaya jaaye, lekin yeh bullish moves fleeting sabit hue aur overarching bearish trajectory ko reverse karne mein nakam rahe.
Mazid Girawat Ki Umeed
Maujooda market conditions aur dominant bearish trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, aane wale sessions mein mazeed girawat ki umeed barh rahi hai. Farokht karne walay khas tor par 1.0671 ke critical price zone ko breach karne par focus kar rahe hain, aur yeh dekha ja raha hai ke is level ke neeche ek candlestick closure bearish trend ke continuation ko affirm karega.



Aage dekhte hue, farokhton ka agla focal point 1.0642 area ho sakta hai ongoing downward price action ke dauran. Technical standpoint se, trading strategies Sell positions ko favor kar rahi hain jab tak ke prices 100-period SMA zone ke neeche rehti hain, jo ke broader bearish sentiment ke sath align karta hai jo ke poore mahine dekha gaya hai.
Market Ka Ravayya
Market ka ravayya ek cautious outlook ko underline karta hai EUR/USD ke liye, jo ke higher SMA levels ko test karne mein reluctance aur bearish bias ko maintain karne mein notable resilience ko dikhata hai. Traders in dynamics ko navigate karte hue keenly key support levels aur short-term corrections aur longer-term bearish momentum ke interplay par tawajjo de rahe hain.
Nateeja
Nateeja yeh hai ke halaanki recent hafton mein brief upward corrections dekhi gayi hain, overall sentiment EUR/USD market mein firmly bearish hai. Traders downside potential ko capitalize karne ke liye poised hain, aur technical indicators jaise ke 100-period SMA ko strategic entries ke liye dekh rahe hain Sell positions mein. Is liye, market participants ko mashwara diya jata hai ke woh ek vigilant stance maintain rakhen, aur potential developments ke liye tayyar rahein jo ke prevailing bearish trend ko mazeed reinforce kar sakti hain aane wale dino mein.

EUR/USD currency pair analysis: EUR/USD ka chart aaj ke liye potential price movement scenarios ke liye qeemati insights faraham karta hai. Chart patterns aur key levels ka tajziya kar ke traders ko maqsood par malumat hasil karne mein madad milti hai.Aik ahem factor jo tawajjo ki zaroorat hai, wo hai haal hi mein 1.0693-1.0715 ke support level ka breakout. Ye breakout aik ahem technical waqiya hai jo ishara deta hai ke mazeed neechay ki taraf movement ki mumkinat hain. Jab aik price support level ko toor deta hai, to ye amooman ishara karta hai ke bechne wale dabao ne kharidne ki dilchaspi ko par kar liya hai, jis se bearish trend ka mazeed jari rehne ka imkan paida hota hai.Bearish trend ko tasdeeq aur jari rakhne ke liye, price ko 1.0693-1.0715 level ke neechay consolidate hona zaroori hai. Is level ke neechay consolidation, jaisay ke is support level ke multiple candles ke neechay band hona, ishara karta hai ke market ne kam price ko qubool kar liya hai aur mazeed girawat ke liye tayar hai. Traders ko is bearish manzar ko tasdeeq karne ke liye consolidation ke signs dekhne chahiye.




Agar price is support level ke neechay mazbooti se consolidate kar leti hai, to ye bearish outlook ko mazbooti deta hai aur mazeed girawat ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Is manzar mein, traders agli potenti price girawat ke liye apne targets set karne ke liye mazeed support levels ya technical indicators par nazar rakh sakte hain. Previous lows ya Fibonacci retracement levels se taluq rakhte hue key support levels par nazar rakhna chahiye.Lekin agar price 1.0693-1.0715 level ke neechay consolidate nahi kar pata hai, to aik reversal ki mumkinat hai. Is surat e haal mein, price upar ki taraf phir se barh sakta hai aur 1.0735-1.0751 area mein resistance level tak pohnch sakta hai. Ye resistance zone aik ahem area ko darshata hai jahan bechne wale dabao dobara barh sakte hain, jo ke kisi bhi upar ki harkat ko rok sakta hai.

EUR/USD TAAQUB

Is haftay mai EURUSD market ki movement ki halat aisi hain ke yeh seemit range mai hi trade ho raha hai. Isko dekha ja sakta hai ke do din ke market session mai mangalwar aur budhwar mai price ki movement is haftay ke shuru ke price area ke andar hi rehti hai. Is ke ilawa, H4 TF reference mai mojood trend ki shiraeen halat dekh sakte hain, jo ke bullish phase mai hai, jab buyers ne candle ki movement ko ma 200 area (neela) ke oopar phir se pohancha diya. Pichli barqi umeed ka izhaar karne ke baad, correction phase ka aghaz hone ki wajah se seems to abhi tak chalkar rahe hain, jab kay pehle barqi umeed overbought area mai move hui thi jo RSI 70 level par thi. Iske ilawa, buyers ka dikhayi de raha hai ke unka bullish trend ka rukh phir se jaari rakhne ki koshish ho rahi hai, taakeh buying transactions par focus kiya ja sakay jab tak price bearish full body candle close kar ke Ma 200 area (blue) ke neeche na gir jaye.

Buy karne ka option ab phir se attractive lag raha hai jo 1.0820-1.0825 level par entry ke liye consideration ke liye laaya ja sakta hai. Price level ke range se target barhne ka TP 1 lagana chahiye jo SbR area tak pohanchne ki koshish karega jo ke 1.0854 ke aas paas hai aur TP 2 agle resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish karega jo 1.0915 ke aas paas hai. Buy plan support area par risk limit laga sakte hain jo ke 1.0775 range mai hai. Lambay arsay ke buy considerations ko bhi madaeen nazar rakhte hue, bullish efforts ko zero area tak pohanchne ke liye target kar sakte hain jo 1.1000 range mai hai. Jab price 1.0775 level ke neeche gir jata hai, tab naya sell option dilchasp ho jata hai. Is price level ke neeche girne wale decline par focus sale par kiya ja sakta hai shayad phase drop rally movement tak pohanch sakti hai pichle mahine ki kam se kam price limit tak jo 1.0665 range mai hai.

EURUSD KA MAUNLEISH

EUR/USD currency pair ke liye diye gaye chart ke mutabiq, kai ahem points dekhe ja sakte hain jo tajziyah kiya ja sakta hai. Chart mein EUR/USD ke price mein kuch ahem tezi nazar aati hai pichle kuch dino mein, ek mazboot uptrend ke saath. Ye uptrend 50-hour aur 100-hour moving averages ke dwara supported hai, dono lines ko upar ki taraf mudaya gaya hai, jo mazboot khareedne wale dabav ko darshata hai. Iska charam par, price ne lagbhag 1.08424 ke kareeb ek resistance level tak pahuncha, jo halke keemat hai abhi ke price movement ki. Is peak par pahunchne ke baad, price ne ek consolidation aur thoda sa kami anubhav kiya.

Ye consolidation dekha ja sakta hai price movement mein phirkar jo 1.08424 ke resistance level aur lagbhag 1.08124 ke support level ke beech fluctuate kar raha hai. Ye support level kaafi mazboot nazar aata hai kyunki price ne kai baar isse bounce kiya hai, iska darshata hai ki aur giravat ko sahan karne ke liye kafi khareedne ka interest hai. Is consolidation daur ke dauran, 50-hour moving average flatten hone laga, iska matlav hai ki upar ki momentum kam hone lagi hai. Lekin, 100-hour moving average abhi bhi upar ki taraf mudaya gaya hai, matlab ki lambay samay tak ka trend abhi bhi sakaratmak hai. Agar price high volume ke saath 1.08424 ke resistance level ko tod paata hai, to ye uptrend ka aage badhne ka sanket ho sakta hai aur price agle resistance level ki taraf badhegi. Lekin, agar price is level ko paar karne mein asafal hoti hai aur 1.08124 ke support level ke neeche gir jaati hai, to ye trend ke palatne ka suchak ho sakta hai.

Teknik rujhan: Buy karne ke liye jab tak 1.08055 ke upar ho
Resistance 1: 1.08355
Resistance 2: 1.08400
Support 1: 1.08115
Support 2: 1.08055

EURUSD ab bhi raat ko US tradinf session mein majbooti badhane ka mauka hai kyunki ye ek bullish channel mein hai jo ye darshata hai ki bullish potential abhi bhi maintain kiya ja raha hai, iske alawa, badhne ki possibility ko bhi mazbooti milti hai Moving Average jo upar ki taraf mudata ja raha hai aur MACD bhi positive area mein shuru ho raha hai bullish potential ko majboot karte hue.

Upar wale 15 M chart mein, EURUSD ab bhi badhne ka mauka dete hue hai kyunki ye Moving Average ke support se hai jo chal rahe price ke neeche hai, jo ye darshata hai ki EURUSD ka aam movement abhi bhi badhne ki tarah ho sakta hai. Agar upar diye gaye scenario ke mutabiq, EURUSD ka mauka hai 1.08400 ke resistance level tak badhne ka.

EUR/USD currency pair, jo ab waqt guzar rahi hai, takreeban 1.0825 ke mark par trading kar rahi hai, bearish trend ka nazara dikha rahi hai. Iska matlab hai ke Euro US Dollar ke khilaf kamzor ho raha hai. Halankeh market abhi dheere dheere chal rahi hai, kuch factors yeh dikhate hain ke aane wale dino mein kisi taqatwar harkat ka imkan ho sakta hai. In factors ko samajhne ke liye economic indicators, siyasi tajweezat aur market ka jazbat dekhne ki zarurat hoti hai jo is currency pair ko mutasir kar sakti hain.
Economic Indicators

1. European Central Bank (ECB) Policy: ECB ki maaliyat policy ke faislay EUR/USD pair par gehra asar dalte hain. Agar ECB kam interes dar ke tabadla ya economic forecasts ki nisbat zyada ghazab shikar stance bayaan kare, to Euro tezi se kamzor ho sakta hai.
2. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy: Usi tarah, Fed ki policy faislay ahem hai. Agar Fed zyada hawkish stance ko ishaara de, matlab ke interest dar ko barhane ya asset purchases ko kam karne ka ishaara de, to USD mazboot ho sakta hai, jisse EUR/USD pair par bearish harkat dekhne ko mil sakti hai.
3. Economic Data Releases: Key economic indicators, jaise ke GDP growth rates, rozgaar ke figures, inflation rates, aur muashiat ka mahaul, dono Eurozone aur US se, mein se kisi bhi strong numbers ko dekhkar baray tabadlan aa sakti hain. Misal ke tor par, agar US jobs report zyada se zyada mazboot hoti hai, to USD mein izafa ho sakta hai, jisse EUR/USD kamzor ho sakta hai.

Geopolitical Developments

1. Eurozone Political Stability: Eurozone ke andar ki siyasi tajweezat se Euro ke investor confidence ko asar pohonch sakta hai. Brexit ke baadfaasid consequences, region ke elections, ya ghair mutawaqqa siyasi crises market mein bechaini paida kar sakti hain. Koi bari siyasi toofaniyat Euro ke liye bearish movement anjam de sakti hai.
2. US Political Climate: US ki siyasi mahaul jo ke qanoon saazi faisle, aalmi talluqat aur trade policies ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Misal ke tor par, agar US mein siyasi bechaini ya naumeedi pesh aati hai, to USD kamzor ho sakta hai, aur EUR/USD mein bearish trend ko ulta kar sakta hai.

Market Sentiment

1. Risk Appetite: Aalmi market ka jazbat bari haisiyat rakhta hai. Jab bhi bahaas se jyada risk ki mohabbat hoti hai, investors Euro ko USD se achi tarah pasand karte hain, kyunke USD safe-haven currency ke tor par maqbool hai. Lekin jab bhi risk se bachne ka jazbat hota hai, USD mazboot hota hai, jo EUR/USD ko neeche daba sakta hai.
2. Investor Positioning: Baray traders aur idaaron ka halaat euora ke positioning insights faraham kar sakte hain. Agar aksar traders Euro par short positions hold kar rahe hain, to kisi bhi achi khabar se EUR/USD mein tezi se chhota surang (short squeeze) ho sakta hai, jisse EUR/USD mein tezi aa sakti hai.

Technical Analysis

1. Support and Resistance Levels: Technical analysts key support aur resistance levels ka dehan rakhte hain ke future harkat ke mutalaq prediction karne ke liye. Agar EUR/USD kisi ehmiyat ke support level ke qareeb aata hai aur is se neeche nahi girta, to yeh ek mukhtalif bearish trend ki pehchan ho sakti hai.
2. Chart Patterns aur Indicators: Patterns jaise head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, aur mukhtalif technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages), future price action ke baren mein hints de sakte hain. In patterns ya indicators mein sudden tabadlan hani aane wale harkat ki alamati bhi ho sakti hai.

External Factors

1. Global Economic Trends: Aam aalmi maashi rujhaan, jaise ke commodity price changes, aalmi trade dynamics, ya bari economies ke maashi performance, EUR/USD pair ko ghair baarhaq tabadlon se mutasir kar sakte hain. Misal ke tor par, commodity prices mein izafa Eurozone ki export ke system ko faida pohncha sakta hai, jisse Euro ko mazbooti mil sakti hai.
2. Natural Disasters ya Pandemics: Ghair mutawaqqa events jaise ke natural disasters ya pandemics market mein shocks paida kar sakte hain. COVID-19 pandemic, for example, currency markets mein be inteha shadeed harkat pesh aayi thi. Kisi mukhtalif naseeb wali waaqea ke bhi EUR/USD mein aham harkat ka sabab ban sakti hai.

Conclusion


Jabke EUR/USD ka mojuda trend bearish hai aur market dheere chal rahi hai, economic indicators, siyasi tajweezat, market ka jazbat, technical analysis aur external factors ki milaawat aane wale dino mein aham harkat ka sabab ban sakti hai. Traders aur investors ko chaukanna rehna chahiye, in variables ko qareeb se nigrani mein rakhne ke liye taa ke kisi bhi market ke tabadlon ka anjaam aage samjha ja sake. Jahan global economies aur markets ke ta'alluqat ka takhliqi juzv hota hai, EUR/USD pair badi range ke influences ke liye aham hai, jo ek mukammal aur adaptible trading strategy banaye rakhne ke liye zaroori hai.

EUR/USD TAUR PAR RAEJU

Euro ke keemat ka amriki dollar ke muqablay (EUR/USD) mein izafe ne aik mahine ke saray time pe azeem bulandiyon tak rok lagai, jab ke keemat 1.0845 resistance level tak pohanchi, aur filhaal tajziya likhnay ke doran 1.0810 level par qaim hai. Taza performance amriki dollar ke keemt mein izafe ki wajah se hui, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke bayan ke baad. Powell ne ishara diya ke Fed jab tak US mehengai sust 2% target ki taraf ja rahi hai us waqt tak federal funds rate ko kam nahi karega. Unhone kaha ke siyasi rukawaton ko zyada der ya kam hatane se agar economic faaliyat aur rozgar pe asar na hota hai to ye befaiz ho sakta hai.

Trading platforms ke mutabiq, STOXX 50 aur STOXX 600 indices ne do dopahar mein apni nuksan jaari rakhi, pehle ke 1.1% nuksan aur dusre ke 0.7% girne ke baad, jab ke pehle din ghair intihai maqsood par trading hui, jab traders France mein siyasi halat ka jaiza le rahe hain aur... American Federal Reserve Chairman ke bayanat ko digest kar rahe hain. Apni taraf US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell ne Congress ke liye tayar kiye gaye bayan mein kaha ke zyada acha mehengai deta confidence barhata hai interest rate cuts ke baray mein, jab tak aakhri readings... 2% target ki taraf sustainably nahi ja rahi hain, pehli so ke data ye vishwas nahi karate... Is bray bharose ke liye.

Corporate front par, Mercedes-Benz (-3.5%), BNP Paribas (-2.9%), Saint-Gobain (-2.7%), aur Société Générale (-2.6%) sab se zyada nuksan utha rahe hain. Oil aur gas stocks bhi dublay hue hain, khas tor par Repsol (-2.3%) aur Eni (-1%), aur BP ke shares 3.8% tak toot gae hain jab company ne kaha ke wo kam refining margins aur kamzor oil trading ke liye... Kareebi faidamand second-quarter profits se.

Stock markets mein bhi... S&P 500 aur Nasdaq US stock indexes ne apne record bulandiyon par mustaqil peaks par chal kar 0.1% izafa kiya, jab ke Dow Jones index Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke Senate ke samne bayan ke baad 52 points nichay chala gaya. Us mein unho ne ishara diya ke US central bank interest rate cuts ko consider karne ke qareeb hai aur mehengai ke signs of slowing ke baray mein umeed jatate hue kaha, kehte hue ke "zyada achi data hamare confidence ko barhate hain ke mehengai sustainably 2% ki taraf ja rahi hai." Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Producer Price Index (PPI) data is haftay bhi release hone wala hai jab earning season shuru hone wala hai.

Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... Financial sector ne market ko dikha chalaya, JPMorgan Chase (+1.2%) aur Bank of America (+2%) behtareen performance de rahe hain, jab ke materials stocks sab se zyada girte hue hain. Giant companies mein se jo rise hue hain wo Nvidia shares (2.4%), Tesla shares ne 10 din ke is aik series mein izafay ko record karte hue 3.7% izafa kiya, aur Apple shares ne 0.4% izafa kiya ke pehli American company bani jo $3.5 trillion ki market value ko paar kar gai. Mutabiq, Microsoft stock 1.4% gir gaya, aur Salesforce stock 1.8% gir gaya, jo Dow Jones Index par dabao dal rahe hain.

EUR/USD forecast aaj:
Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, Euro ke keemat ka amriki dollar ke muqablay EUR/USD ne phir se be janibana ho gaya hai, aur trend ke oopri bhag ke control bina nahi mazboot hoga bina resistance levels 1.0880 aur 1.0940 ki taraf na jane ke, jo general trend ko oopri taraf barhane ka tasdeeq dete hain. Dosri taraf, isi time period ke doran, 1.0720 ka support level baras ko control karne ke liye important rahega. Mujhe ummeed hai ke euro/dollar ke qeemat is safar par qaim rahegi jab tak US mehengai numbers ke announcement ka reaction aayega, kal, jumairat ko..

H4 time frame
Kal raat tak EurUsd pair ke market halat mein izafa barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ho rahi thi. Daily candlestick se nazar aata hai ke kal raat ke trading mein neeche ka correction hua jiski wajah se price 1.0807 ki position tak gir gayi. Aaj subah price ka girna barqarar nahi reh saka kyun ke Asian market session ke shuru hone ke baad se ab tak market ne upar jane ki koshish ki. Price ka safar uptrend zone mein chal raha hai, magar izafa abhi tak zyada taqatwar nahi hua kyun ke Asian session ke market halat mein minimal volatility hai
Hafte ke aghaz se ab tak price upar jane ki koshish kar rahi hai, aur bullish movement ke saath yeh EurUsd pair ke liye uptrend journey ko barqarar rakhne ka mauqa aur umeed ho sakta hai. Mid-June trading period se shuru hote hue, bullish price journey 1.0678 price zone se door chal sakti hai, lagta hai ke yeh izafa kaafi bara hai. Meri rai mein, candlestick abhi bhi upar jane ki koshish mein hai jaise ke aakhri kuch dino ke market trend mein dekha gaya hai
Yaqeenan, buyers se ab bhi candlestick position mein izafa karne ki koshish nazar aati hai. Shaayad aisi hi situation dobara ho jab market aaj raat European ya American session mein daakhil ho. Agar hum pichle kuch dino ke safar ke rujhaan ko dekhen, toh trend bullish side ki taraf jaata hua dikhai deta hai. 4-hour time frame se market bullish nazar aati hai. Main tajziya karta hoon ke market mein price ko izafa ka mauqa mil sakta hai aur bullish trend ko barqarar rakh sakta hai, aur yeh bhi mumkin hai ke upward journey naye monthly high area ko haasil karna chahe

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke US Congress ke saamne dovish bayan ke baad Euro ne budh ko US Dollar ke muqable mein mazbooti dikhayi. Yeh positive sentiment is umeed ke saath aaya ke September mein interest rate cut ho sakta hai. Halaanke Eurozone ke data mein kami hai, jahan Germany ki final CPI inflation June ke liye 2.5% par qaim rehne ki umeed hai, lekin sarmayakaar upcoming US inflation data par tawajju de rahe hain. Woh kamzor-than-expected nataij ki umeed kar rahe hain, khaaskar core CPI numbers jo ke salana 3.4% par rehne ki paishgoi hai. Yeh US rate cut ki umeed ko mazeed barha sakta hai
Agar Euro ka uptrend jari rehta hai, toh yeh pehle 1.0874, jo ek aham Fibonacci retracement level hai, ko test kar sakta hai. Agar yeh is level se upar break karta hai, toh June ka high 1.0915 agla maqam ho sakta hai. Mazeed gains ho sakte hain lekin 1.0975 ke qareeb limited rahenge, jo ke ek aur Fibonacci retracement level hai jinhone March mein Euro ki rise ko rok diya tha
Dusri taraf, agar Euro apni average price (SMA) ke neechay girta hai, toh yeh 1.0793 par support dhoondh sakta hai. Is level se neechay girne par yeh 1.0711 ki taraf dhakhel sakta hai, jo ke ek mahine ka potential low 1.0666 par hai. Kul mila kar, Euro ki halia gains dovish Federal Reserve aur kamzor US inflation data ki umeed se fueled hain. Aane wale inflation figures Thursday aur Friday ko Euro ki direction ke liye nihayat ahem hain, jahan resistance aur support levels dekhne layak honge depending on the outcome.



Short-term technical picture mazeed behtar hui hai apni SMAs ke upar break karne par. Poore scale reversal ke liye, lekin, bulls ko June ke high 1.0915 ke upar break karna hoga
Aakhri kuch dinon mein Euro ki mazeed mazbooti ki wajah Powell ke bayan ke baad US Dollar ki kamzori thi. Yeh umeed hai ke September mein interest rate cut hoga, jo ke Euro ke liye achi khabar hai. Halaanke Eurozone ka economic data utna strong nahi hai, lekin US inflation data par sab ki nazar hai. Agar yeh data kamzor aata hai, khaaskar core CPI numbers jo 3.4% par rehne ki paishgoi hai, toh yeh mazeed rate cut ki umeed ko barha sakta hai
Agar Euro ka uptrend barqarar rehta hai, toh yeh pehle 1.0874 ko test karega, jo ek ahem Fibonacci retracement level hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh agla maqam 1.0915 ho sakta hai, jo June ka high hai. Agar yeh is se bhi upar jata hai, toh 1.0975 tak pohanch sakta hai, jo ek aur Fibonacci retracement level hai aur March mein Euro ki rise ko rok diya tha
Lekin agar Euro apni average price (SMA) ke neechay girta hai, toh yeh 1.0793 par support le sakta hai. Is level se neechay girne par yeh 1.0711 ki taraf dhakhel sakta hai, jo ke ek mahine ka potential low 1.0666 par hai. Kul mila kar, Euro ki halia gains dovish Federal Reserve aur kamzor US inflation data ki umeed se fueled hain. Aane wale inflation figures Thursday aur Friday ko Euro ki direction ke liye nihayat ahem hain, jahan resistance aur support levels dekhne layak honge depending on the outcome

European Single Currency 1.08 level ke upar hold kar rahi hai aur pichle 2 hafton ke chote gains ko defend karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Fed ke 2 interest rate cuts ke kuch limited prospects ka resurgence US currency par asar daal raha hai, khaaskar is hafte ke macroeconomic data ke baad. Halanki hum kal US mein Independence Day ke liye holiday pe the, magar US dollar ab bhi ek issue bana hua hai kyunki US services sector ka disappointing macroeconomic data Wednesday ko samne aaya. European currencies ka continued reaction exchange rate ko 1.07 level ke narrow fluctuations se door rakha hai, magar mujhe lagta hai ke ab tak 1.10 level ke upar koi definite signal nahi aaya jo indicate kar sake ke euro mein quality aur weak returns ka change aa raha hai.

US mein innovation aam tor par variables ko badhane, specific strengths ko mazboot karne ya unhe mukammal tor par badalne ka factor hota hai. Is tarah, yeh expect kiya ja raha hai ke aaj ke NFP data mein significant investor interest hoga jo euro area mein aaj ke retail selling ke trend se alag hoga.

European currency ka recent reaction mere objective ko fulfill nahi kar saka ke European currency ko 1.06 ke qareeb kharida jaye, magar phir bhi yeh system se mukammal tor par bahar nahi hona chahiye kyunki yeh saaf hai ke interest rates ab bhi US side par hain aur euro ka strong increase ek aasan kaam nahi hoga. Ab main US money ko 1.10 ya usse oonche levels par kharidne ke level ko dhoondhne par focus kar raha hoon.

4-hour time frame chart par technical analysis:
Pair ab ek strength demand zone par trade kar raha hai aur hum current price 1.0829 se pair ko sell karenge 100 pips target ke liye.

EUR/USD H4

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price changes ka tajziya karenge. Powell ne ECB forum mein bola aur, usual ke mutabiq, US dollar ko "drop" kar diya, jabke Lagarde ne pehle bola tha aur euro ko thoda support kiya tha. Powell ne kuch naya nahi kaha, magar phir bhi EUR/USD ne 1.0739 level ko break kiya aur ab resistance 1.0749 ke qareeb hai. Critical resistance level, jo EMA-200 se mark hai, 1.0759 par hai. Yeh unclear hai ke market ne Powell ko is tarah react kyun kiya, kyunke unke remarks groundbreaking nahi the. Unhone mention kiya ke labor market strong hai, inflation 2% ke qareeb nahi hai, aur disinflation ke signs hain. Lagarde ne bhi kaha ke inflation sahi direction mein ja raha hai, lekin yeh kehna ke yeh waisa hi rahega abhi early hai. Powell ne emphasize kiya ke Fed apne decisions ko rush nahi karegi aur US aur Europe ki inflation alag issues hain jo different approaches require karti hain. Unke comments ke bawajood, market hesitant hai US dollar ko buy karne mein.



Political developments in Europe ne market sentiment ko significantly influence kiya hai, khaaskar European parliamentary elections jo ke Euro mein confidence ko dent kiya hai. France ka apni parliament ko dissolve karna aur snap elections hold karna, jo President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament elections mein substantial defeat ke baad call kiya, market uncertainty ko barhaya hai. Marine Le Pen, jo ke ek right-leaning conservative politician hain National Rally se, Macron ko replace karne ke prospect ne financial markets ko stir kiya hai. Le Pen ke platform mein steep tax cuts, retirement age ko kam karna, aur stringent immigration controls shamil hain, jo France mein kaafi popularity gain kar chuki hain.

Le Pen victory ke potential ne European financial markets mein apprehension ko cause kiya hai. Unki policies significant fiscal challenges impose kar sakti hain jab European economic indicators already underperform kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) persistent inflation issues ke wajah se rate cuts implement karne mein constrained hai.