𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

Sab ko salam, aaj hafte hai aur kal hum ne kuch fundamental khabron ke baad bohot zyada taizi se movement dekha, aur aaj main EUR USD par nazar dal raha hoon aur EUR/USD ke mazeed movement ke bare mein baat karunga. EUR/USD pair ne apni kamzor girawat jari rakhi aur 61.8% (1.0837) ke correction level ke neeche mazboot ho gaya. Lekin, girawat lambi waqt tak nahi rahi, aur Thursday ko, pair ne euro ke favor mein palat gaya, is level ke upar mazboot ho gaya. Is tarah, umeed hai ke upar ki taraf ki raftar 76.4% Fibonacci level tak jaari rahegi jo 1.0892 hai, aur chadhata hua trend channel aaj bhi trader ke jazbat ko "bullish" batata hai. Is tarah, "bullish" trend ka aghaaz hua hai, jismein bullish traders lagbhag roz hamla kar rahe hain. Main is trend ko kaafi ghair mustaqil samajhta hoon aur manta hoon ke yeh sirf thori dair tak jari rahega. Lekin, quotes ki umeed wali raftar ek mahine tak jaari rahi hai, aur bear log pair ko channel ke nichle line tak bhi nahi ghaseet sake. Is liye, "bullish" trend khatam hone ki koi nishaani nahi hai. Thursday ka maaloomati background bullish traders ko naye hamle ki aaghaz karne ki ijaazat di. Germany aur Eurozone ke services aur manufacturing sectors ke business activity indices traders ke expectations se behtar the, jo euro mein naye uthao ka silsila shuru kiya. Main sab figures ka zikar nahi karunga, kyun ke unka asal maqsad ek hi hai - data forecasts se zyada positive tha. Lekin, overall trader activity bohot kam hai. Ye lagbhag har chart par dekha ja sakta hai, jo dikhata hai ke zyadatar traders agle kadam par kya karna chahte hain yeh woh sahi nahi jaante. Na Lagarde ki taqreerain na economic data isay wazeh karne mein madad kar rahi hai. Bears market se bilkul ghayab nazar aate hain, jabke bulls sirf jab hamla karne ke kisi wajah hai. Aur roz koi wajah nahi hoti. 4 ghante ke chart par, pair "wedge" pattern ke upar mazboot ho gaya aur 50.0% Fibonacci level par 1.0862 tak chadha. Euro ki aakhri segment ki chadhavat kuch mushkil dikh rahi hai, is liye main is ke jaari rehne par yaqeen nahi rakhta. Lekin, girawat ka intezaar karte hain, jiski abhi mojudgi nahi hai. Aaj koi qareebi ikhtilaaf nahi dekha gaya hai, RSI indicator ke overbought hone ke siwa.

**EUR/USD/D1**

**Kal, EUR/USD mein, ek chhote se southern pullback ke baad, price ka ulta hua aur kaafi bharosemandi se uttar ki taraf dhakela gaya, jiski wajah se ek puri bullish candle ka ban gaya, jo apni uttar ki parchai ke saath pichle daily range ke high ko update karne mein kamiyab raha. Main poori tarah se tasleem karta hoon ke aaj izafa jaari reh sakta hai aur is halat mein, jaise maine pehle bhi kai baar kaha hai, main nazar rakhoonga resistance level par, jo 1.09425 par ya resistance level par jo 1.09812 par sthit hai. In resistance levels ke qareeb, halat ke vikas ke liye do manazir ho sakte hain. Pehla manzar price ke is level ke upar mazid consolidation aur aage ki taraf uttar ki taraf ka movement se juda hai. Agar yeh mansooba kamyaab hua, to main umeed karta hoon ke price resistance level tak pahunchega, jo 1.11393 par sthit hai. Agar price is resistance level ke upar fix hoti hai, to main aage ki taraf uttar ki taraf ka movement ka intezar karoonga, jo 1.12757 par sthit hai. Is resistance level ke qareeb main trading setup ke banne ka intezar karoonga, jo trading ke mazid rukh ka tay karega. Bila shuba, main tasleem karta hoon ke jab price muqarrar dora ke liye designated door uttar mukhtasar harkat karta hai, southern pullbacks ban sakte hain.**

**Ek doosra option price ke movement ke liye jab resistance level 1.09425 ya resistance level 1.09812 ke qareeb aaye to ek plan ke sath hai jisme ek muddat candle ka banne aur southern movement ke dobara shuru hone ka manzar hai. Agar yeh mansooba kamyaab hua, to main price ka intezar karoonga ke woh support level tak wapas jaye, jo 1.08543 par sthit hai ya support level par, jo 1.07882 par sthit hai. Main is tarah ke support levels ke qareeb bullish signals ka talash karne jaari rakhunga, uttar ki taraf price movement ke dobara shuru hone ke intezar mein. Aam tor par, seedha kehne mein, aaj main poori tarah se tasleem karta hoon ke price ke izafa ka jaari reh sakta hai uttar ki taraf, aur phir wo bazaar ki halat se aage badhenge, uttar ke manaziron ko pehle dekar.**

**EUR/USD Pair ka Umoor**

**Wazeh hai ke EUR/USD pair ka buniyadi driver ECB ki meeting ke natayej se aane wala hai aur is mamlay mein abhi zyada sawalat hain ke jawab - khaaskar, ye wazeh nahi hai ke Europe ke regulator agar discount rate ko kam kare to market ka reaction kya hoga. Agar hum is waqt N euro-dollar se amal karte hain, to N1 sellers 1.0915 ke high se ek pehla downward impulse bana chuke hain jiska southern start line 1.0854 hai, lekin is instrument ke liye qareebi ahem support ROS 1.0881 par hai, aur abhi tak quotes is level ke upar hain, to uttar ki taraf jaari movement ke koi imkan rahega. Agar kuch waqt baad 1.0854 ke level par support tora jata hai aur bears ne niche consolidate kiya, to pehla downward impulse activate hoga aur EUR/USD pair ki price zyada tarha se apne girne ka silsila jari rakhega pehle impulse zone ke levels 1.0816 aur 1.0792 tak.**

Currency Pair: Tehqiqat aur Tafseelat
EUR/USD currency pair ne aik lambi daira-e-bandi ka dor dikhaya hai, jo ke aik lambi muddat ke liye aik tang shor mein tajziya kar raha hai. Is maharat ki kami ne kai traders ko pareshan rakha hai, jo aik breakout ya raah ka intezar kar rahe hain. Meri apni strategy ko aik downward correction ke intezar par mojood hai, jis ka nishana 1.0830 se 1.0810 ke darmiyan mukarrar hai. Yeh mutawaqqa correction aik aham mauqa faraham karega market mein dobara position lenay ke liye. Chaar ghantay ka chart tehqiqat is manzar par mazeed insights faraham karta hai. Technical indicators ke mutabiq, qeemat ek ahem juncture par pohanch rahi hai, jahan yeh moving average line ko imtehaan denay ki tawaqqa hai. Abhi, yeh moving average 1.0831 par maujood hai, aik level jo ke kisi ahem technical ahmiyat ka hamil hai. Moving average ke sath ta'alluq mein mukhtalif lafzat kiya jata hai jo ke mustaqbil ki qeemat ke harkat par asar daaltay hain.

Trading ke mansoobe mein, moving average aik aam istemal kiya janay wala aala hai jo ke kisi makhsoos muddat ke doran qeemat ke data ko halka karke mukhtasir karta hai, is tarah saaray trend ka saaf nazar aata hai. Jab qeemat is line ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aik dynamic support ya resistance level ka kaam karta hai. Aik kamiyabi ka imtehaan aur moving average se pehlay wapas chalay jaanay ka ishara mojooda trend ka jari rehna hai, jabke is darje par upar rahne mein kami naqami ya gehra correction ka ishaara hosakta hai. Is ke ilawa, mojooda market ka jazba aur ma'ashiyati indicators bhi ghor kiye jaana chahiye. Asool jaise ke interest rate ke faislay, ma'ashiyati data ki takhleeq aur siyasi waaqiyat sab currency ki harkat par asar daal sakte hain. Ye barguzida factors ka nazar andaaz karna mazeed context faraham kar sakta hai aur potential market reactions ko pehchanne mein madad faraham kar sakta hai.

Ikhtitami tor par, EUR/USD currency pair aik ahem technical juncture par hai, jahan qeemat chaar ghantay ke chart par 1.0831 par moving average ko imtehan denay ko tayar hai. 1.0830 se 1.0810 range tak southern correction ki tawakkal is par mojooda technical analysis aur tareekhi qeemat ke patterns par mabni hai. Jabke market aik flat range ke andar trading jaari rakhta hai, to aane wale moving average ka imtehan qeemat ke mustaqbil ki raah par mazeed roshni daal sakta hai. Traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye, technical indicators aur baray ma'ashiyati factors ko dono ke taur par ghor karte hue is mumkinah mutasir dor ko asan tareeqay se guzarna chahiye.

Currency Pair: Tehqiqat aur Tafseelat
EUR/USD currency pair ne aik lambi daira-e-bandi ka dor dikhaya hai, jo ke aik lambi muddat ke liye aik tang shor mein tajziya kar raha hai. Is maharat ki kami ne kai traders ko pareshan rakha hai, jo aik breakout ya raah ka intezar kar rahe hain. Meri apni strategy ko aik downward correction ke intezar par mojood hai, jis ka nishana 1.0830 se 1.0810 ke darmiyan mukarrar hai. Yeh mutawaqqa correction aik aham mauqa faraham karega market mein dobara position lenay ke liye. Chaar ghantay ka chart tehqiqat is manzar par mazeed insights faraham karta hai. Technical indicators ke mutabiq, qeemat ek ahem juncture par pohanch rahi hai, jahan yeh moving average line ko imtehaan denay ki tawaqqa hai. Abhi, yeh moving average 1.0831 par maujood hai, aik level jo ke kisi ahem technical ahmiyat ka hamil hai. Moving average ke sath ta'alluq mein mukhtalif lafzat kiya jata hai jo ke mustaqbil ki qeemat ke harkat par asar daaltay hain.

Trading ke mansoobe mein, moving average aik aam istemal kiya janay wala aala hai jo ke kisi makhsoos muddat ke doran qeemat ke data ko halka karke mukhtasir karta hai, is tarah saaray trend ka saaf nazar aata hai. Jab qeemat is line ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aik dynamic support ya resistance level ka kaam karta hai. Aik kamiyabi ka imtehaan aur moving average se pehlay wapas chalay jaanay ka ishara mojooda trend ka jari rehna hai, jabke is darje par upar rahne mein kami naqami ya gehra correction ka ishaara hosakta hai. Is ke ilawa, mojooda market ka jazba aur ma'ashiyati indicators bhi ghor kiye jaana chahiye. Asool jaise ke interest rate ke faislay, ma'ashiyati data ki takhleeq aur siyasi waaqiyat sab currency ki harkat par asar daal sakte hain. Ye barguzida factors ka nazar andaaz karna mazeed context faraham kar sakta hai aur potential market reactions ko pehchanne mein madad faraham kar sakta hai.

Ikhtitami tor par, EUR/USD currency pair aik ahem technical juncture par hai, jahan qeemat chaar ghantay ke chart par 1.0831 par moving average ko imtehan denay ko tayar hai. 1.0830 se 1.0810 range tak southern correction ki tawakkal is par mojooda technical analysis aur tareekhi qeemat ke patterns par mabni hai. Jabke market aik flat range ke andar trading jaari rakhta hai, to aane wale moving average ka imtehan qeemat ke mustaqbil ki raah par mazeed roshni daal sakta hai. Traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye, technical indicators aur baray ma'ashiyati factors ko dono ke taur par ghor karte hue is mumkinah mutasir dor ko asan tareeqay se guzarna chahiye.

Currency Pair: Tehqiqat aur Tafseelat
EUR/USD currency pair ne aik lambi daira-e-bandi ka dor dikhaya hai, jo ke aik lambi muddat ke liye aik tang shor mein tajziya kar raha hai. Is maharat ki kami ne kai traders ko pareshan rakha hai, jo aik breakout ya raah ka intezar kar rahe hain. Meri apni strategy ko aik downward correction ke intezar par mojood hai, jis ka nishana 1.0830 se 1.0810 ke darmiyan mukarrar hai. Yeh mutawaqqa correction aik aham mauqa faraham karega market mein dobara position lenay ke liye. Chaar ghantay ka chart tehqiqat is manzar par mazeed insights faraham karta hai. Technical indicators ke mutabiq, qeemat ek ahem juncture par pohanch rahi hai, jahan yeh moving average line ko imtehaan denay ki tawaqqa hai. Abhi, yeh moving average 1.0831 par maujood hai, aik level jo ke kisi ahem technical ahmiyat ka hamil hai. Moving average ke sath ta'alluq mein mukhtalif lafzat kiya jata hai jo ke mustaqbil ki qeemat ke harkat par asar daaltay hain.

Trading ke mansoobe mein, moving average aik aam istemal kiya janay wala aala hai jo ke kisi makhsoos muddat ke doran qeemat ke data ko halka karke mukhtasir karta hai, is tarah saaray trend ka saaf nazar aata hai. Jab qeemat is line ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aik dynamic support ya resistance level ka kaam karta hai. Aik kamiyabi ka imtehaan aur moving average se pehlay wapas chalay jaanay ka ishara mojooda trend ka jari rehna hai, jabke is darje par upar rahne mein kami naqami ya gehra correction ka ishaara hosakta hai. Is ke ilawa, mojooda market ka jazba aur ma'ashiyati indicators bhi ghor kiye jaana chahiye. Asool jaise ke interest rate ke faislay, ma'ashiyati data ki takhleeq aur siyasi waaqiyat sab currency ki harkat par asar daal sakte hain. Ye barguzida factors ka nazar andaaz karna mazeed context faraham kar sakta hai aur potential market reactions ko pehchanne mein madad faraham kar sakta hai.

Ikhtitami tor par, EUR/USD currency pair aik ahem technical juncture par hai, jahan qeemat chaar ghantay ke chart par 1.0831 par moving average ko imtehan denay ko tayar hai. 1.0830 se 1.0810 range tak southern correction ki tawakkal is par mojooda technical analysis aur tareekhi qeemat ke patterns par mabni hai. Jabke market aik flat range ke andar trading jaari rakhta hai, to aane wale moving average ka imtehan qeemat ke mustaqbil ki raah par mazeed roshni daal sakta hai. Traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye, technical indicators aur baray ma'ashiyati factors ko dono ke taur par ghor karte hue is mumkinah mutasir dor ko asan tareeqay se guzarna chahiye.

EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD ka matlab hai Euro aur US Dollar ka exchange rate. Yeh exchange rate batata hai ke ek Euro ke badle kitne US Dollar milenge. Forex market mein, EUR/USD duniya ka sabse zyada trade hone wala currency pair hai. Is pair ka forecast karna complex ho sakta hai kyunki bohot saare factors iski value par asar dalte hain. Chaliye, in factors ko detail mein discuss karte hain aur dekhenge ke kaise EUR/USD ka forecast banaya ja sakta hai.

### Economic Indicators

Economic indicators bohot important role play karte hain EUR/USD ke forecast mein. In indicators ko closely monitor karna aur inke impacts ko samajhna zaruri hai.

1. **Gross Domestic Product (GDP):** GDP ek country's total economic output ko measure karta hai. Agar Eurozone ka GDP growth rate high hai aur US ka low, to EUR ki value barh sakti hai aur EUR/USD exchange rate upar ja sakta hai.

2. **Inflation Rate:** Inflation rate se hum ye measure karte hain ke prices kitni tezi se barh rahe hain. Higher inflation rate usually currency ki value ko kam karta hai. Agar Eurozone mein inflation rate US se zyada hai, to EUR ki value gir sakti hai aur EUR/USD rate niche ja sakta hai.

3. **Unemployment Rate:** Unemployment rate se ek country's labor market ki health ka pata chalta hai. Low unemployment rate economic strength ko indicate karta hai. Agar Eurozone ka unemployment rate low hai aur US ka high, to EUR/USD rate upar ja sakta hai.

4. **Interest Rates:** Interest rates ko central banks set karte hain aur ye borrowing aur lending costs ko determine karte hain. Higher interest rates ek currency ko attractive banate hain. Agar European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates increase karta hai aur Federal Reserve (US central bank) rates kam rakhta hai, to EUR ki value barh sakti hai aur EUR/USD rate upar ja sakta hai.

### Political Stability

Political stability bhi currencies ke values par asar dalti hai. Eurozone aur US dono ki political situations ko monitor karna zaruri hai. Agar Eurozone mein political stability hai aur US mein instability, to EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai.

### Market Sentiment

Market sentiment ya trader ka mood bhi bohot important role play karta hai. Agar traders ko lagta hai ke Euro strong hoga due to positive economic data ya favorable political developments, to wo EUR buy karenge aur EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai.

### Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical events jaise ke wars, natural disasters, aur major political changes exchange rates ko rapidly change kar sakte hain. Agar koi major political crisis Eurozone mein hota hai, to EUR ki value gir sakti hai aur EUR/USD rate niche ja sakta hai.

### Central Bank Policies

Central banks jaise ke European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policies bhi currencies ki values par direct asar dalte hain. Interest rate decisions, quantitative easing programs, aur economic outlook ke announcements forex market par significant impact daalte hain. Agar ECB apni monetary policy ko tighten karta hai aur Fed dovish stance rakhta hai, to EUR/USD rate upar ja sakta hai.

### Technical Analysis

Technical analysis mein hum historical price movements aur chart patterns ko dekhte hain. Popular technical indicators jo EUR/USD trading mein use hote hain, wo hain:

- **Moving Averages:** Moving averages se hum trend direction aur potential support aur resistance levels ko identify kar sakte hain.
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** RSI ek momentum oscillator hai jo overbought aur oversold conditions ko indicate karta hai.
- **Fibonacci Retracement:** Fibonacci retracement levels se hum potential support aur resistance levels ko identify kar sakte hain.

### Forecasting EUR/USD

Ab hum kuch steps discuss karte hain jo EUR/USD ka forecast banane ke liye use kiye ja sakte hain:

#### 1. **Economic Data Monitor Karna:**
Eurozone aur US ke economic data releases ko monitor karna zaruri hai. Important data releases jaise ke GDP reports, inflation data, unemployment rates, aur retail sales ko closely track karein. Agar data Eurozone ke favor mein hai, to EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai.

#### 2. **Central Bank Announcements:**
ECB aur Fed ke interest rate decisions aur monetary policy statements ko closely follow karein. Agar ECB interest rates increase karta hai aur Fed rates unchanged rakhta hai, to EUR/USD rate upar ja sakta hai.

#### 3. **Technical Analysis:**
Technical indicators ka use karke market trends aur price movements ko analyze karein. Moving averages, RSI, aur Fibonacci retracement levels ka use karke optimal entry aur exit points determine karein.

#### 4. **Political and Geopolitical Events:**
Eurozone aur US ke political events aur geopolitical developments ko track karein. Agar Eurozone mein political stability hai aur US mein instability, to EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai.

### Example Forecast Scenario

Ek example scenario consider karte hain jahan Eurozone ka GDP growth rate high announce hota hai aur ECB interest rates badhata hai, jabki US mein GDP growth slow hota hai aur Fed rates unchanged rakhta hai. Is situation mein, market sentiment Euro ke favor mein hoga aur EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai.

#### Step-by-Step Analysis:

1. **Economic Data:** Eurozone ka GDP growth rate 3% announce hota hai jabki US ka 1% hai. Ye strong economic performance ko indicate karta hai Eurozone ke liye.

2. **Interest Rates:** ECB interest rates 0.25% increase karta hai jabki Fed rates unchanged rakhta hai. Higher interest rates Euro ko attractive banate hain.

3. **Technical Indicators:** 50-day moving average 200-day moving average ke upar cross karta hai, jo ek bullish trend ka indication hai. RSI bhi 70 ke upar hai, jo overbought condition indicate karta hai, lekin trend strong hai.

4. **Political Stability:** Eurozone mein political stability hai jabki US mein elections aur political uncertainty chal rahi hai.

In scenario ko dekhte hue, EUR/USD rate barh sakta hai aur traders is pair ko buy kar sakte hain.

### Conclusion

EUR/USD forex pair ka forecast karna multiple factors ko consider karne ka process hai. Economic indicators, central bank policies, political stability, market sentiment, aur technical analysis sab important roles play karte hain. Successful trading aur accurate forecasting ke liye, in factors ko closely monitor karna aur inka proper analysis karna zaruri hai. Proper education, disciplined approach, aur effective risk management ke sath, profitable trading strategies develop ki ja sakti hain.

EUR/USD ka Daily Timeframe par Tajziya:
Jab hum EUR/USD pair ko daily (D1) timeframe par dekhte hain, toh ye wazeh hota hai ke jo current candlestick hai wo demand zone ke price range 1.0810-1.0820 ko torhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Ye ilaqa ek mazboot support level ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, aur jab tak ye level break nahi hota, EUR/USD ke phir se barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, ye baat note karna zaroori hai ke is waqt koi bhi upward movement correction hogi na ke ek bullish trend ka continuation. EUR/USD ka overall trend bearish hota nazar aa raha hai, jo ke 1.0853 ke qareebi support level ke recent breach se zahir hota hai.

Price ka demand area 1.0810-1.0820 ke neeche torhne mein nakam rehna ye dikhata hai ke buyers ab bhi mojood hain aur is level ko defend kar rahe hain. Agar price is zone ke neeche break nahi hoti, toh ek corrective rise dekha ja sakta hai. Ye potential rise EUR/USD pair ko 1.0850-1.0880 ke range tak push kar sakta hai. Ye corrective movement kareeban 80 pips ki ho sakti hai, jo ke current position aur upar ke resistance levels ko dekhte hue hai.

Is potential upward correction ke bawajood, bearish sentiment dominant rehta hai. 1.0853 support ka break hona bearish trend ki mazboot indication hai. Jo scenario main dekh raha hoon, wo ye hai ke market shayad EUR/USD ko 1.0850-1.0880 ke range tak rise karne de, uske baad apni downward trajectory ko wapas shuru kar le. Ye rise ek short-term correction hoga, jo ke recent downward pressure ko kuch relief dega, magar overall bearish outlook ko nahi badal sakega. Is liye, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur kisi bhi short-term corrective rise ke baad further decline ke signs ko dekhna chahiye. Key levels ko monitor karna, jaise ke demand zone aur potential corrective target 1.0850-1.0880, informed trading decisions banane mein crucial hoga.

Agar EUR/USD zone ke ird-gird 1.0837 tak pohnchti hai, toh ye kaafi mumkin hai ke EUR/USD dobara decline karna shuru kar de. Iska matlab ye ho sakta hai ke pair lower support levels ko test kare, shayad current demand zone se bhi neeche. Traders ko dekhna chahiye ke price 1.0837 level ke ird-gird kaise behave karti hai. Agar is level par significant selling pressure hota hai, toh ye bearish trend ke continuation aur EUR/USD pair ke deeper decline ka sabab ban sakta hai. Demand zone 1.0810-1.0820 ke wajah se corrective rise ka chance hai, overall trend bearish rehta hai. 1.0853 support level ka breach downward trend ke liye tone set kar chuka hai.

EUR/USD H4
Upar ki taraf rujhan Tuesday ko barkarar raha. Humne jaan bujh kar hourly timeframe ka scale kam kar diya hai taake pura movement dikhaya ja sake jo lag bhag dedh mahine pehle shuru hua tha. Aham baat yeh hai ke EUR/USD do martaba ascending channel se neeche aaya, aur dono dafa pair neeche nahi gira. Yeh barabar upar ja raha hai magar aksar wapas aata hai. Impulsive upward jumps bohot choti hoti hain, aur subsequent pullbacks bhi. Pair mukhtalif directions mein move karta hai, magar yeh sab tab hota hai jab volatility kam hoti hai. Isliye, beginners ko clearly samajh lena chahiye ke iss waqt kis qisam ka movement ho raha hai. Fundamental perspective se dekhein to pair ke paas koi wajah nahi ke woh barhe, kyunke European Central Bank Thursday ko key rate kam karega. Macroeconomic background upward movement ko support karta hai, kyunke US ne do mahine se disappointing reports dikhai hain. Phir bhi, hum yeh nahi samajhte ke macroeconomics fundamentals se zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai. Ek trading signal . timeframe par form hua tha. European session ke doran, price 1.0888-1.0896 area se neeche settle hui, jiske baad woh lagbhag 18 pips girne mein kamiyab hui, jo ke Stop Loss set karne ke liye kaafi tha, lekin is se zyada nahi. Beginners US session ke doran trade ko chhoti si profit ke sath close kar sakte thay jab US ne ek aur report (JOLTs) release ki, jo expected value se kam thi. Isliye, traders kal chhoti si profit bana sakte thay.

Wednesday ke liye trading tips:
Hourly chart par bullish correction barkarar hai. Hum ab bhi yeh samajhte hain ke euro ko medium term mein girna chahiye, kyunke overall trend downward hai. Magar market kisi unknown reason ke waja se dollar ko kharidne se katra raha hai aur price ascending channel se bahar nahi nikal sakti. Ek naya downward trend tab form ho sakta hai jab price ascending channel se neeche consolidate ho jaye. Wednesday ko beginners pair ke barhne ki umeed kar sakte hain, kyunke US labor market aur business activity par reports publish karega. Yeh reports kamzor hone ka high probability hai, jo ke dollar ke naye girawat ko provoke karengi. Warna, dollar thoda aur strengthen ho sakta hai. Chart par key levels hain 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Aaj, Eurozone mein May ke services aur producer price index par secondary data publish hoga. US docket crucial reports feature karega, jaise ke ISM services aur ADP ka changes in private sector employment.

Main Friday ko bilkul mukhtalif surat-e-haal ki umeed kar raha tha! Bulls ne daily channel ki resistance line ko open kar diya, aur halan ke yeh sirf aage barhane ke liye ek preliminary signal tha, bulls breakout zone mein confident tarah se consolidate kar rahe the. Yeh normal tha ke kal customers ko ride di jaye. Unhone bas aik stupid candle downward draw ki, aur shaam ke akhir mein, wo 100 points se fail ho gaye. Yeh US ke statistics ka kamal hai. ECB ka meeting kaafi modest tha, halan ke unhone rate ko kam kar diya. EUR/USD ne kal ke growth ko match nahi kiya. Wo 1.0916 ke upar break nahi kar sake aur 1.0864 ke nazdeek support level ko tor diya, jo sellers ke liye action ka signal bana. Sales ne kaam karna jari rakha, aur agle support ke area 1.0788 tak kuch zyada door nahi tha. Mera khayal hai ke yeh waqt ki baat hai, aur hum wahan jaldi pohanch jayenge. Phir, price reaction ko is level pe dekh kar faisla karna ke buying try karni hai ya sales ko hold karna hai. Surat-e-haal abhi tak itni clear nahi hai, kyun ke upward trend break nahi hua. Magar trend line ka breakdown upward movement ko tor sakta hai. Abhi ke liye, main broken level pe rollback ki umeed kar raha hoon aur pullback se sell karne ki koshish kar raha hoon. Is liye, EUR/USD ka price 1.0800 ke aas paas ke support ko reach kar chuka hai.
Yahan main ne pair pe purchases open kiye hain umeed ke sath ke kam az kam 1.0830 tak ek corrective rebound dekhu, lekin agar kismat achi rahi, toh yeh pair yahan se growth resume kar sakta hai. Upward trend apni structure ko abhi bhi barqarar rakhta hai. Unhone 1.0835 pe debt level bhi chodh diya, aur ek Gartley butterfly bhi nazar aayi hai, jo shayad pauir ko space mein bhej sakti hai. Magar yahan phir sab kuch Wednesday ke news pe depend karega, jab Fed meeting hogi aur inflation data publish hoga, aur us se pehle, main sideways trend ki umeed kar raha hoon, aur shayad 1.0800 is corridor ka lower limit ho. Naye hafte ke shuruat se, main yeh maan raha hoon ke EUR/USD pair rollback karna shuru kar sakti hai, main yeh exclude nahi kar raha ke yeh 1.0930 ke support ki taraf girti rahe, lekin main yeh sochta hoon ke 1.0830-1.0850 tak rollback ho sakta hai kyun ke main ne purchases pe small profit rakha hai, nateeja yeh hai ke rollback ke baad, main pair ke neeche janay ki umeed kar raha hoon, provided ke technical resistance 1.0865 break nahi hoga, warna humein growth ko consider karna padega, aur is dafa resistance 1.0930 ke upar, mumkin increase 1.0980 tak ho sakta hai, aur yeh medium-term trend ko growth ki taraf reverse kar dega, filhal main south dekh raha hoon aur Monday afternoon ke rollback ke baad, hum pair ke 1.0730 tak decline ki umeed karenge, naye hafte ke pehle do din mein support 1.0730 pe pohanch sakte hain.

EUR/USD: Keemat Karwai Ki Taqat

Humari guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ki hali keemat karwai ko tajziya karna par mustamil hai. Muttalik dosri imraaziyat se, main ek mukhtalif nazar rakhta hoon. Ziyadah United States ki ma'ashiyat ke indicators naye fa'al nazeer hain, jin mein 50 ke upar ke values hain, aur kaam ka bazaar mazboot hai. Aaj, U.S. ki khidmaton ka shuba PMI ummeedo ko paar kar gaya, 54.8 tak pohancha—pichle mahinay se kafi zyada—jo sectori izafa ki nishani hai. Kul milakar, U.S. ki ma'ashiyat achhi taraqi kar rahi hai, aur U.S. dollar ko kamzor hone ka koi sabab nahi lag raha, khas tor par jab Federal Reserve ne is saal November tak refinance daro ko barkarar rakhne ka azhar kia. Keemat karwai ka jaeza bullish market price sentiment ko dikhata hai, is liye koshish karein ke dip par khareedein.






Chaaron ghantay ke chart par, tajub zahir hai. EUR/USD pair peela moving average ke atraaf titarti rehti hai, jis mein har taraf ke liye manazir mawjud hain. Magar, main keemat mien kami ka imkan sab se zaada mustaqbil nazar ata hai. Agar keemat moving average ke neeche gir jaye, mera target support level 1.0818 hai. EUR/USD pair apni bunyadi girahward raah par jaari rakhta hai. Farookhton ne pehla support level 1.0853 tak pohanch liya, aur keemat is point se halki izafa ka samna kar rahi hai. Agar khareedne wale euro ko 1.0853 ke upar rakh sakte hain, to mein umeed karta hoon ke exchange rate 1.0917 tak barh sakta hai, jahan se agle resistance level 1.0956 ko tor sakta hai. Agar ghantay ke mumkina tamaam band karv band 1.0850 ke neeche band ho, to girahawardi 1.0816 aur 1.0795 tak barh sakti hai. Mera trade outlook bearish hai, jo 1.0789 ke support level tak girne ka rujhan rakhta hai. Magar, bullish level ko torne par nazar par growth ka aksar ho jayega, jis se 1.0978 ke resistance ko nishana banaya jayega.

Peer ke shuru ke ghanton mein, jori ne 1.0870 tak girne ke baad US Dollar bazaar mein kamzor hotay hue phir se uchaala mara. Ye harkat US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ki grow data ka izhaar hone se mutasir thi, jo market ki tawaqo ke mutabiq darusti ke sath rukawat dikhata tha.

Market ke dhakke muqamiyat: US GDP aur Eurozone Inflation ka asar

US GDP ki growth pehle quarter mein 1.6% se 1.3% tak hui, jo mercado ki tawaqo ke mutabiq thi aur Fed rate cut ke liye umeedon ko madad pohanchati hai. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, rate traders Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) se September mein rate khatam karne ka intezar kar rahe hain. Mojud market bets ke mutabiq FOMC ke rates ko September mein barqarar rakhne ki 49% chance hai, jisme se 50% se zyada logon ka tajjub dikhane wala hai kam se kam aik qarta point cut ko pasand karte hain.

May mein Eurozone ki inflation data se mercado ke hisaab se ECB rate cuts ke baray mein koi aham asar nahi hone ki tawaqo hai. ECB ke policymakers ko rate cut ke khayal se aaram hai kyunki keemat pressue mein halqa hal ho raha hai aur service sector ke disinflation mein tamer tijarat par musallat progress kar rahe hain.

H4 Chart EUR/USD Outlook: Mumkin highs aur key resistance levels recovery signs ke darmiyan

Agar jodi 1.0900 ke qareeb do mahinay ki unchi ko phir se pakar laiti hai to wo mazboot ho sakti hai. Is level ke upar ek sabit tor par toorna is se ye jodi ko zyada tar March 21 ki unchi tak 1.0955 aur dimaghi rokawat tak 1.1000 ki taraf dhamka sakta hai. Ulta, 1.0818 par 200-din EMA ke neeche girne ke halat mein aur zyada girawat hoti ho sakti hai. 14-mahinay ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40.00-60.00 range mein chala gaya hai, jo ek kamzor upar ki rah ka ishara hai.

Haal hi mein, EUR/USD ne char ghanton ke waqt ek Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern ka breakout point ke qareeb khareedne ki rujhan dikhaya, 1.0900 level ke neeche rakha gaya. Magar, is uptick ke bawajood, jodi ke qareebi mustaqbil ki taka mashwara hota rahta hai jab wo mukhtalif short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ke sevilon ko barqarar rakhne ke liye joojh rahi hoti hai.

Shaam ka waqt acha hai. Abhi jori athwan figure ke andar ka trade kar rahi hai, isliye shumara traq ka agar further development ki baat ki jaye to ye munasib nahi hai. Ek uptrend ko tasdeeq karne ke liye, ye chaye ke wo inwan figure ke andar mazbooti ke saath jam jaye. Ye ke traders inwan figure ke andar kaam kar rahe hain dikhata hai ke dono bechne walon aur kharidne walon mein tanayi hai. Hal hi mein, ZEW Institute ne Germany ke liye economic sentiment index jari kiya, jo May mein 47.1 points tak barh gaya, February 2022 se sab se unchi value. Ye index pehle das mahinon se barh raha hai. Overall, euro ke liye manzar optimistic hai jab ke economic growth is saal aur agle saal dono ke liye tawajjuh hai.

Dollar ke liye bullish sentiments dheere-dheere kamzor ho rahe hain jab ke American economy thandi pad rahi hai. Pehle quarter mein USA ne 1.6% kamzor GDP growth dekha, jo 2.3% ki tawaqo se kam tha. Is ke ilawa, April mein retail sales mein koi growth nahi dekhi gayi. Ye is waqt general aur core CPI index dono mein slowdown ke sath ho rahi hai. Jumeraat ko May ke liye inflation ke report ki umeed hai. Is hafte koi ahem reports nahi hain. Inflation report ab European currency ke liye bohot ahem nahi hai, kyunki inflation pehle se 2.4% tak kam hogayi hai, aur ye mazeed neeche ki taraf jari rahegi. Beshak, ye umeed nahi ki jati ke indicator har mahine kam hoga; ho sakta hai ke badhe aur phir comeh. Magar, kisi bhi waqt abhi se inflation ke tezi ki umeed nahi rakhi jati. Indicator mein kami sirf pehle mushkil halat ko mazeed barha degi. Haal hi mein, Philip Lane ne ishara kiya ke regulator ke liye sahi hoga rate ko waqt par kam karna. Unka kehna hai ke June monetary policy ko aasan karne ka munasib maheena ho sakta hai. ECB doveish rehti hai, jo European currency ke liye demand ko kam karegi.






Jumeraat ko keemat poore din badh gayi. Na to support ko test kiya gaya, na hi resistance, isliye Jumpeer se le kar trading range ke andar ka kaam ahmiyat di. Mujhe yaqeen tha ke keemat 1.08646 aur 1.08010 ke darmiyan range mein trade karegi. Dosri batain, maine recommend ki ke resistance se bechna aur support se kharedna chahiye. Jab tak resistance tod nahi jata, bechna maqbool hai. Kyunki aaj keemat 1.08646 level ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, kal main 1.08010 ke support ki taraf girne ka tarjeeh doonga.

EUR/USD Tafseelat

US dollar ne qeemat barhane mein bari kami hasil ki Wednesday ke trading mein, jis se risk assets par neeche ki dabao ka silsila qaim raha aur EUR/USD ko mazeed neeche le gaya, jis se 1.0850 ke qareeb do din ki kam taq pohnch gayi. US dollar ka naya uptrend Tuesday ke pullback mein EUR/JPY mein thorhi izafah karne ka sabab bana, jab ke US Treasury yields ke mukhtalif cycles mein silsila taiz decline ka silsila jaari raha. Agar hum Federal Reserve ke liye abhi bhi "khamosh dor" mein hain, to yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke haal hi mein Fed ke afuaat ke tajwizat ka market speculation par bura asar pada hai, jo tight monetary policy ke liye mukarar hone ki mushkil ke liye isharat kar raha tha. Magar, Tuesday ko released data ne dikhaya ke U.S. ADP employment mein May mein tabadla aya aur ek udaasi se bharpoor U.S. JOLT job openings ka shandar Download..






June mein jo ke 1.0916 (June 4), March mein 1.0981 (March 8), aur weekly mein 1.0998 (January 11) ho sakti hain test ki jaye gi agar EUR/USD bulls control mein aagaye. Aakhir mein, EUR/JPY 1.1000 ke ahem level ko test kare gi. 200-day moving average ne weekly ki kam qeemat 1.0788 (May 30) ko support diya hai, jo EUR/USD agar apni negative trend shuru kare to pehla test karay ga. Agar EUR/USD is zone ke neeche chala gaya, to ye May ki kam qeemat 1.0649 (May 1) aur April 2016 ki kam qeemat 1.0601 (April 16) tak pohunch sakta hai. 4-hour chart abhi kuch short-term consolidation dikhata hai. 55-day simple moving average (1.0851) agla negative support level hai, uske baad 1.0788 aur 1.0766. EUR/USD 1.0916 aur phir 1.0942 ko test kare gi tez tareen mein. Relative strength indicator kareeb 50 tak gir gaya hai.

Jumeraat ko 5 minute ke time frame par, do sell signals ban gaye. Price ne 1.0888-1.0896 area se do dafa bounce kiya. Pehli short position naye traders ko profit layi, jise ECB meeting ke result announce hone se pehle manually band karna chahiye tha. Us waqt, lagbhag 15 points ke profit mein tha. Phir, specify ki gayi area se doosra bounce hua, lekin koi naya price decline nahi hua. Trade ko breakeven par band ya minimal loss ke saath band kia ja sakta tha. Overall, 40 points ke aas paas volatility ke sath, kisi bhi profit ki umeed bohot challenging thi.

Jumeraat ko Trading kaise karni chahiye:

Ghante ke time frame par, pair ne ek upward correction maintain kiya. Euro ka giravat medium term mein dubara shuru hona chahiye kyun ke global trend abhi bhi neeche ki taraf hai. Magar market dollar khareedne se rok rahi hai ajeeb wajahon se aur upward channel se baahar nahi aa sakti. Market ke liye fundamental background zaroori nahi hai, jabke zyadatar macroeconomic statistics sirf euro ke favor mein interpret hoti hain.






Jumeraat ko, naye traders euro ke aur tezi ka intezar kar sakte hain. Khaaskar agar key macroeconomic statistics US se forecasts se kam nikle. Is case mein, euro 1.0940 ke level tak barh sakti hai.

5 minute ke timeframe par, ye levels dhyaan mein rakhe ja sakte hain: 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Jumeraat ko Eurozone pehle quarter ke GDP report ko third estimate mein publish karegi. Ye koi major report to nahi hai, lekin phir bhi ek reaction ko provoke kar sakti hai. Zyada important Nonfarm Payrolls, berozgari, aur wage data US mein release honge.

Currency Pair Behavior: EUR/USD

Chaliye EUR/USD currency pair ke mojooda price behavior ki tafseelat mein ghus jaate hain. Yeh pair hal hi mein volatility mein izafa dekh raha hai. Main H4-M30 trading setup par roshni dalna chahta hoon, jahan humne kal H4 resistance level se M30 mein ek shift note kiya. Pair apni neeche ki manzil par jaari hai, jahan aaj M30 par aur selling signals nazar aaye hain. Sab se ahem sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh abhi peda hui bullish trend ko higher time frames tak barha hai, jo kal ke Europe aur America ke fundamental data par munhasir hai. Tafseelat par qiyasat hoti hai ke ECB pehla hoga rates ko cut karne mein, jo EUR/USD par bade asar daal sakta hai. Agar ECB pehla hua, to hum EUR/USD mein kami ki umeed kar sakte hain. Magar, technically, pair ke bullish targets at 1.0937 (61.8% fib), 1.0995-1.1000 (76.4% fib), aur 1.1018 (76.4% fib) abhi tak pooray nahi hue hain, jo ek temporary upward spike ko ishaarah dete hain, jo selling opportunity pesh kar sakta hai.





Haftawar chart par buniyaadi faislay sirf weekend par nazar aate hain. Mojooda waqt ke liye, EUR/USD pair ke liye primary events M15 chart par unfold ho rahe hain, jahan bear euro-dollar ko 1.0917 ki unchai se neeche ki taraf dekh rahe hain. Euro ke liye resistance 1.0857 par hai. Agar yeh level mumkin hai aur bear ke price is ke neeche consolidate hota hai, to primary downward impulse ko 1.0828 aur 1.0805 ke initial impulse zones tak jaari rahegi. Magar, 1.0854 ke support ka false breakdown sellers ko 1.0857-1.0849 growth zone tak mehdood kar sakti hai, jahan se doosra upward pullback 1.0878 ke resistance tak mumkin hai. Koi bhi aamal munasib nahi hai, aur market ka reaction potential ECB rate cut par aham hoga. Humein dekhna hoga ke market is nihayat ahem waqiya ka kaise jawab deta hai.