𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

Friday ko Asian session ke doran, EUR/USD ne 1.1210 ke aas paas robust trading ki aur multi-year uptrend ko break kiya. Is gain ke bawajood, aage ke upward movement ka potential limited ho sakta hai kyunki European Central Bank (ECB) ke September mein rate cuts ke hawale se uncertainty ab bhi barqarar hai, Germany ke disappointing economic growth data ke baad. Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate decision ke nazdeek aate hi yeh market ka ek focal point banne wala hai.

**Eurozone Growth Forecast Se Zyada: Fed Rates Barqarar, September Mein Easing Ki Ummid**

Eurozone mein second quarter ke doran economy 0.3% se grow hui, jo market ke consensus 0.2% increase se zyada hai. Yeh expansion economic backdrop ko resilient dikhata hai, lekin agle preliminary inflation data aur Germany ke Retail Sales report bhi crucial honge. Yeh indicators yeh batane mein madad karenge ke ECB September mein aur rate cuts pursue karega ya nahi.

Dusri taraf, Atlantic ke paar, Federal Reserve ki umeed hai ke wo apne current interest rates ko maintain karega apni do din ki policy meeting mein Wednesday ko. Lekin market ki umeed hai ke September mein policy easing ho sakti hai, kyunki inflation rates June mein zyada tezi se decrease hue hain.

**EUR/USD Ka Technical Analysis:**

Immediate target 1.1250 level hai, jo market ke agle haftay khulte hi test ho sakta hai. Agar pair is level ke beyond buying pressure sustain karta hai, toh yeh aage bhi barh sakti hai, jahan agla significant resistance 1.12770 par hoga, jo Bollinger Band ke upper boundary ke sath coincide karta hai. Further upward movement ko 1.1300 par psychological resistance ka samna karna par sakta hai.

Major pair abhi bhi 4-hour chart par key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar hai, lekin Relative Strength Index (RSI) midline ke neeche around 43.90 par hai. Yeh positioning suggest karti hai ke resistance ki raah ab bhi downward ho sakti hai.

Hello, aap kaise hain? EUR/USD ek phislayi hui raah par hai jo 1.1100 ki taraf ja rahi hai, aur Wednesday ko European session mein teen din ki jeet ki series khatam ho gayi. Yeh jo pair hai, yeh US dollar ki barhti hui demand se chal raha hai, jabke markets annual USNFP review aur Fed minutes ke aage cautious ho gayi hain. Aage chal kar, EUR/USD se ummeed hai ke yeh 2024 ki high 1.1119 (20 August) ko challenge karega December 2023 se pehle. Agla niche target 200-day SMA 1.0843 hai, jo weekly low 1.0777 (1 August) aur June low 1.0666 (26 June) se aage hai, sab May low 1.0649 (May 1) se upar hai. Badi picture dekhte hue, pair ka uptrend tab tak jari rehna chahiye jab tak yeh key 200-day SMA ke upar bana rahe. Ab tak, four-hour chart ne positive bias mein significant izafa dikhaya hai. Pehla resistance level 1.1119 hai, jo ke 1.1132 aur 1.1275 se pehle aata hai. Doosri taraf, immediate support 55-SMA 1.0978 par hai, uske baad 1.0949 aur phir 1.0881. Relative Strength Index ne 80 se upar izafa kiya hai, EUR/USD teese din se barh raha hai, aur 2024 ke naye highs 1.1120 ke aas-paas pohanch gaya hai. Dollar ki halat kharab hone ki wajah se, greenback ne aur bhi girawat dekhi, 102.00 ke key support level ke neeche chala gaya aur US Dollar Index par YTD lows se trade kar raha hai. Investors ka yeh maanna hai ke Federal Reserve September mein interest rates ko barha sakta hai. Chair Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole Symposium mein Friday ko diya gaya pareshani bhara paigham bhi isme shaamil hai. Consumer Price Index release ke baad Fed ke agle mahine rate cut ke expectations kam ho gayi hain, aur ab rate cut ki sambhavnayein zyada hain.




Yeh adjustment behtar-than-expected results ke saath aaye hain doosre key US economic indicators mein. Rate cut ke hawale se, CME Group ke FedWatch tool kehte hain ke September 18 ke meeting mein 25 bps ke cut ka lagbhag 70% chance hai. Iske saath, ECB ke Olli Rehn ne European Central Bank ke hawale se khamoshi tod di. Unhone kaha ke economic weakness aur euro area mein negative growth ke barhte huye risks Bank ko September mein interest rates cut karne ki zaroorat de sakte hain. Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke Eurozone mein expected economic recovery ki guarantee nahi hai aur policymakers ko mukhtalif scenarios ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye.

EUR USD Forum Analysis, Forecast

Pichlay maheene ke dauran bullish trend journey bohat hi volatile rahi hai kyun ke is mein ek aur izafa dekha gaya, jo iss haftay ke uptrend journey ke saath jari raha. Haftay ke aaghaz mein bullish journey 1.1030 position se shuru hui, phir ismein izafa hota raha jab tak ke yeh 1.1133 price area ko chhoo sakta tha. Is izafay ke sath, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke buyer ka control abhi bhi bohat mazboot hai. Kal raat ke trading period mein lag raha tha ke price mein izafa jari reh sakta hai. Asian market session ki shuruwat is subha se hui aur abhi tak market choti range ke sath consolidate ho rahi hai. Market ki soorat-e-haal uptrend zone ki taraf ja rahi hai, lekin izafa abhi tak itni mazbooti se jari nahi hai kyun ke Asian session mein market ki volatility kam hai.

Kuch haftay pehle se le kar kal raat tak, price abhi bhi upar ja rahi thi. Bilkul, bullish movement ke sath yeh ek mouqa aur ummeed ho sakta hai ke EurUsd pair uptrend journey ko jari rakhe. August ke shuruwati trading period se bullish trend journey 1.1078 price zone se door ja sakti hai, lagta hai ke izafa bohat bara hai. Mere khayal mein, candlestick abhi bhi upar jaana chahti hai, bilkul aakhri chand dino ke market trend ki tarah. Agar technical side se benchmark liya jaye aur Stochastic Indicator 5,3,3 ka istemal kiya jaye to isne zone 80 tak upar jaane ki koshish ki hai, indicator signal ke izafa se buyer control ka saboot milta hai.




Iss tamaam analysis ke sath jo maine likhi hai, mumkin hai ke abhi bhi buyer ki taraf se candlestick position ko barhane ki koshish ho rahi ho. Shayad yeh hi soorat-e-haal aaj dupahar European market session ke dauran bhi dekhne ko mile. Agar chand din pehle se shuru hone wale safar ki rujhan ki buniyad par dekha jaye to yeh dikhaata hai ke trend apne bullish side par hai. Mera andaza hai ke market mein price ke upar jaane ka mouqa hai jab ke bullish trend ko jari rakhte hue, mumkin hai ke yeh upar ka safar ek naye maheene ki high area ko chhuna chahta ho. Aaj ka trading plan ziada tar market trend ko follow karne par tawajjo de raha hai, jo ke uptrend ki taraf bhaag raha hai, is liye Buy trading option tayar karke rakhna chahiye.

EUR-USD H1 Analysis Chart

Olga, salam! Main bhi European Union ke announcement ka intezar kar raha tha, khaaskar jab khabron ko economic calendar mein teen stars ke saath highlight kiya gaya tha. Yeh khabrein neutral zone mein release hui hain, jiska kisi bhi tareeqe se price movement par koi asar nahi pada. Seedhe lafzon mein kahoon toh, din ke aakhir tak price ne northern direction mein move kiya. Tuesday ki trade ne ek bari bullish candle se din ko close kiya. Aap dekh sakte hain ke kal price ne daily chart par ek significant resistance level ko challenge kiya. Price channel ke upper edge se kaafi upar chalagi. Stochastic indicator par overbought territory hai. Mera andaza hai ke humare currency pair, EUR-USD, ki slide southward jaari rahegi jab price wapas channel mein tootega aur daily average moving line, jo ke 1.0841 par hai, tak pohanchega. Agar moving line toot gayi, toh price channel ke lower border1.0730 tak gir jaayega.4.




Aam tor par, consumer price index ke baad Federal Reserve ke representatives ke bayaan kaafi ahmiyat rakhte hain. Aaj Fed minutes release hone ki umeed hai, aur yeh EUR-USD trading instrument ke local trend vector par ek significant asar daal sakte hain. Yeh surat-e-haal mushkil hai kyun ke 1.0800 par palatne ke baad sab kuch market ki halat aur, beshak, news landscape par depend karta hai. Nazariyat ke tor par, pricing abhi bhi 1.1050-1.1150 ke price range ke andar hai, iska matlab hai ke sales target abhi bhi 1.1050 par hai.

EURUSD Pair Technical Analysis

Market Indication: Bullish

Is maheene ke shuru se EURUSD currency pair ki market conditions bullish dikh rahi hain, jese ke dekha ja sakta hai ke market dobara se upar ki taraf move karne ki koshish kar raha hai, 1.1133 ke price level tak. Abhi candlestick thodi si neeche ki taraf correction kar raha hai aur apne sabse oonche level se niche aaya hai. Abhi ke market prices monthly timeframe se dekhe jaane par abhi bhi upar ki taraf dikh rahi hain. Trend pichle August se market khulne ke baad se upar ki taraf rally kar raha hai, isliye mujhe lagta hai ke market ke aage barhne ka abhi bhi kaafi potential hai, bilkul pichle July ke market conditions ke trend ki tarah. Yeh ummeed ki ja rahi hai ke buyers phir se market par qabza jama lein aur prices ko aur bhi upar dhakel dein.



Main H4 timeframe ke trend ko dekhne ki koshish karta hoon, jahan hum dekh sakte hain ke EURUSD currency pair ki condition abhi bhi bullish raaste par chalne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Isliye, abhi behtar yeh hai ke trading par focus kiya jaye jo ke abhi market mein upar ki taraf move ho raha hai. Ummeed hai ke prices aur bhi upar jayenge aur 1.1175 level ke range ko test karenge. Mere khayal mein, trading option ek BUY transaction hai, lekin koi bhi trading transaction decide karne se pehle ek accha plan tayar karna chahiye aur uske saath anticipation bhi honi chahiye.

Agar analysis Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ke Lime Line par kiya jaye jo ke dobara se 70 level tak upar gayi hai, toh yeh ek bullish market ki tasveer deta hai. Filhaal, seller abhi bhi price ko neeche laane ki koshish kar rahe hain aur hum chhoti timeframe mein dekh sakte hain ke price dheere dheere 1.1117 ke level ki taraf neeche jaana shuru ho gayi hai. Mere khayal se, aane wale chand dino mein, ek bullish trend hone ki ummeed hai aur main sirf EURUSD currency pair par BUY potential par focus karunga.




Conclusion:

Technical analysis ke natije ke mutabiq, aaj ke trading plan ke liye EURUSD currency pair par BUY trading option par ghore karna chahiye. Lekin, humein intezar karna chahiye ke price pehle 1.1135 ke range tak upar jaye taake hum ideal market entry zone hasil kar saken aur risk ko achhe tareeke se manage kar saken. Target Profit (TP) level ke liye, buyer ka target 1.1180 ke price point par rakha jaa sakta hai. Stop Loss (SL) level ko transaction position se lagbhag 35 pips niche rakha ja sakta hai. Kul milaakar, market mein price movements ka potential lagta hai ke barhta rahega.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis

Aaj hum EUR/USD currency pair ka D1 (daily) chart istemal karte hue analysis karte hain.

Wave Structure aur MACD Indicator

Wave structure upar ki taraf movement dikha raha hai, aur MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi upper limit area aur signal line ke upar growth indicate kar raha hai. Pichlay haftay ke dauran price action kaafi wazeh tha: pehle ek izafa hua, phir girawat aayi, aur phir ek aur tezi dekhi gayi. Yeh movements na sirf is timeframe mein nazar aaye, balki chotay timeframes par bhi saaf dikhai diye.

Price Action aur Support Level

Price ne cumulative area ki maximum value ko exceed kiya, lekin phir is maximum level se wapas gir gaya, jo ke kisi had tak tawakku thi. Haal hi mein, US se aane wali khabron ne dollar aur puri market ke jazbaat par kuch asar dala hai. Closing price 1.0954 par aik wazeh support level ko indicate kar rahi hai. Iss support level se aik rebound hua, lekin mujhe itna strong rebound ki tawakku nahi thi. Main yeh samajh raha tha ke yeh rebound chhota hoga aur hum shayad phans jayein.

Maujooda Tawakkuat

Ab jab ke price ne apne sabse oonche level ko paar kar liya hai, hum inertia (price ka isi direction mein move karte rehne ka rujhan) ka tajziya kar sakte hain. CCI (Commodity Channel Index) indicator overheating ke signs dikha raha hai aur bearish divergence ka signal de raha hai. Price apni maximum value se exceed kar gayi hai, aur hum qareeb future mein ek correction ki tawakku kar sakte hain.

Mirror Levels par Nazar Rakhna

Neeche ke timeframes par, humein mirror levels ko observe karna chahiye jahan support resistance mein tabdeel ho sakta hai. Yeh price movement ke expected hissa ko capture karne ke liye ek accha mouqa provide kar sakta hai.

Reversal Pattern

Iske ilawa, price ne ek reversal pattern banaya hai, jo ke abhi bhi position mein hai. Yeh ek aur nishani hai ke price jaldi se nahi barhegi, aur upward trend ka ulat jana bhi mumkin hai. Halaanke, pattern abhi bhi wazeh hai aur acha perform kar sakta hai.

Economic Calendar

Aaj ke economic calendar mein koi aisi ahmiyat ki khabrein nahi hain jo note karne layak hoon.




Natija:

Akhrat mein, recent actions ki buniyad par upward movement ke jari rehne ka potential hai, lekin kuch indicators ehtiyat aur qareeb future mein correction ki imkanat bhi zahir karte hain. Aane wale dinon mein ahm support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhna intehai zaroori hoga.

Euro ne Wednesday ko European trading hours ke dauran US dollar ke muqable mein girawat dekhi. Yeh girawat us waqt aayi jab market mein Federal Reserve ki July meeting ke elaan se pehle ehtiyaat ka jazba tha, jo US dollar ko support de raha tha, kyonki isse aksar mehfooz sarmaaya kari ki tarah samjha jata hai. Bhale hi Federal Reserve ne July ki meeting mein apni soodi sharaah ko 5.25%-5.50% ke darmiyani had tak barqarar rakha, lekin Chairman Powell ke dovish (sood rate mein kami ke hawale se narmi) bayanaat ne agle dinon mein US dollar ko kamzor kiya. Lekin, kuch aham events jaise ke Jackson Hole Symposium aur ECB ki monetary policy ke faisley se pehle ehtiyaat pasandi ke jazba ne US dollar ki qeemat ko barhaya. Is waqt maali market mein September mein Federal Reserve ke 25 basis point sood rate mein kami ke 67.5% imkaan ki qeemat lagai ja rahi hai. Yeh tawakku FOMC ki recent meeting ke narm lab-o-lehja aur CME FedWatch tool ke tahlil par mabni hai.

Doosri taraf, European Central Bank ke policymaker Olli Rehn ne ishara diya hai ke ECB ko September mein sood ki sharaah mein phir se kami ki zaroorat par sakti hai, yeh eurozone ki maeeshat ki jari kamzori ki wajah se ho sakta hai. Rehn ne is baat ko zor de kar kaha ke eurozone mein manfi nash-o-numa ke barhte khatray ne September meeting mein sood ki sharaah mein kami ke case ko mazboot kiya hai. Tajiran September mein deposit rate ko 2.5% se 3.5% tak kam karne aur saal ke ikhtitami tak kam az kam ek aur sood rate mein kami ke muntazir hain.




Euro ne US dollar ke muqable mein bullish trend dikhaya hai, khaaskar pichlay haftay ke rebound ke baad jo ke ek arsay se symmetrical triangle mein tha. Yeh karansi is waqt 1.1050 ki bulandi par trade kar rahi hai, jo ke taqriban aath mahine ki bulandi hai. Simple moving average (SMA) abhi ke bullish trend ki direction ko reflect kar raha hai, kyonki yeh barh raha hai. Iske ilawa, 50-day moving average 200-day moving average ke upar jaane ke liye tayaar hai. Technical indicators, jaise ke stochastic oscillator aur RSI bhi euro ke liye bullish outlook zahir kar rahe hain. Stochastic indicators ke %K aur %D lines ek bullish cross bana rahe hain, aur RSI bhi 70 level ke qareeb majboot momentum ke sath pohnch raha hai. Agar euro ne apna upar ki taraf trend dobara shuru kiya, toh agla target 1.1140 ka resistance level hoga, jo ke 2023 mein ek aham resistance area raha hai.

EUR/USD Tehqiq

Tuesday ko EUR/USD mein 0.4% ka izafa dekhne ko mila, jo 2024 ka naya high tha aur pehli dafa December ke baad yeh 1.1100 ke upar break kiya. Yeh pair Monday ke start se le kar poore ek percent tak barhne ki tawakku hai, kyonki aakhri teen trading dinon se yeh musalsal sabz mein band ho raha hai. Thursday ki subah Pan-European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity survey ke natayij ki tawakku hai. EUR ke liye August ke manufacturing aur services PMIs ko mutanaza 45.8 aur 51.9 par stable rehne ki tawakku ki ja rahi hai. Pichlay saat trading dinon mein, ek ke siwa, EUR/USD har din apne khulne ke maqam se zyada par band hua hai. Yeh pair ab 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo ke 1.0835 par hai, us se kaafi upar hai. Technical indicators, fiber ke mazeed achay daur ke bawajood, lambi muddat ke consolidation range ko ziyada tarjeeh dete hain.




EUR/USD ne 1.1020 ke aas paas ek consolidation pattern banaya hai, jahan se yeh break karke 1.1080 tak pohnch gaya. Yeh lagta hai ke market ki growth trajectory apne peak par hai, aur in buland satah par, ab consolidation range banne ka imkaan hai. Yeh tawakku ki ja rahi hai ke yeh pair neeche ki taraf break karega, mumkin hai ke 1.0980 ke aas paas move kare. Agar yeh barrier toot gaya, toh nuqsaanat 1.0880 tak barh sakte hain. Market ke khilari yeh tasavvur karte hain ke Powell ishaara denge ke sood ki sharah mein kami zaroori hai. Yeh jaanchne ke liye ke aaya Fed September mein ek badi kami ki taraf mael hai ya phir aik choti 25 basis point ki kami, unke khitab ki barikiyon ko gahrai se dekha jayega.

EUR/USD H4 Euro - US Dollar ke currency pair ki technical analysis Heiken Ashi candlesticks aur TMA (Triangular Moving Average) aur RSI indicators ke combination ke zariye ki gayi hai. Ye analysis market mein clear bullish sentiment ko indicate karti hai. Heiken Ashi candle indicator jo ke market ke current forces ko dikhata hai, chart par noise ko smooth kar deta hai, jis se technical analysis karna aur trading decisions lena aasan ho jata hai aur zyada accurate ho jata hai. TMA channel indicator (red, blue, aur yellow color ke lines) support aur resistance lines build karta hai based on twice-smoothed movings aur effectively instrument ke movement ke current boundaries ko dikhata hai. RSI basement indicator ek auxiliary oscillator hai jo Heiken Ashi ke saath combination mein achhe results dikhata hai.

Pesh kiye gaye chart par dekhne ko milta hai ke candles ne blue color pakra hai, jo buyers ki priority ko indicate karta hai. Price ne lower channel boundary (red dashed line) ko cross kiya, minimum point se bounce kiya, aur phir se channel mein wapas aayi aur ab iski movement middle line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf hai. Isi waqt, RSI oscillator bhi buy signal ko fully confirm karta hai, kyunki iska curve upwards move kar raha hai aur overbought level ke qareeb nahi hai. Isliye, hum long position kholte hain with the target of at least reaching the upper channel boundary (blue dashed line) jo ke 1.12392 ke price level par hai. Uske baad, hum position ko breakeven par le aayenge aur mazeed profit growth ke liye intezar karenge.

Juma ko, EUR/USD Pair Mein Consolidation Dekhne Ko Mili, Jahan Yeh Early European Session Ke Dauran Taqriban 1.1204 Ke Aas Paas Trade Kar Raha Tha. Is Thehrav Ke Bawajood, Yeh Pair Neeche Ki Taraf Gaya, Jis Ki Wajah Risq Se Bachne Ka Rujhaan Aur Germany Ke Q2 Ke Liye Tawaqqa Se Kam Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Data Tha. Jabke Tajiron Ne Federal Reserve (Fed) Ke Sood Ki Sharah Ke Faislay Se Pehle Ehtiyaat Ka Rukh Apnaya, EUR/USD Ne Market Ko Taqriban 1.1191 Par Band Kiya.

EUR/USD Ke Bunyadi Asbaab:

Federal Reserve Ke Chairman Jerome Powell Ne September Mein Mumkin Sood Ki Sharah Mein Kami Ke Liye Zaroori Shara'it Ko Wazeh Kiya Hai. Khaas Tor Par, Unhon Ne Mehsoos Kiya Ke Mehengai Ke Rujhaan Mein Musalsal Behtari Aur Kaam Ke Bazar Mein Istahkam Ya Kamzori, In Ahem Shara'it Mein Se Hain. Yeh Rehnumai Aanay Wale US Maeeshati Data Ke Liye Wazeh Maayaar Muqarrar Karti Hai. US Nonfarm Payrolls Report, Jo Ke Juma Ko Jari Hone Wali Hai, Tawakku Hai Ke Fed Ke Kam Az Kam Aik Maayaar Ko Pura Karegi, Jis Ke Sath Yeh Paish Goi Hai Ke August Ke Liye Jobs Mein Izafa Kam Hoga.

In Tajaati Tafseelat Ke Bawajood, Market Iss Waqt September Mein Jab Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Ki Meeting Hogi, Sood Ki Sharah Mein Kami Ke 100% Imkaan Ko Dawam De Raha Hai. Lekin Aanay Wale Hafte Mein Ahem US Maeeshati Data Par Tawajjo Ka Mutawakka Hai Ke Yeh Mazeed Utar Chadhav Laye Ga. Sarmayakar Ajeeb Taur Par Is Baat Ki Umeed Kar Rahe Hain Ke US Maeeshati Asbaab Mein Mazeed Narmi Rahe Ta Ke Fed 18 September Ko Mumkin Sood Ki Sharah Mein Kami Ki Taraf Barh Sake.

Rozana Time Frame Technical Tanazur:

Technical Maidan Mein, EUR/USD Is Waqt 1.1150 Ke Qareeb Intraday Ranjish Ka Shikar Hai. Bulls Ko Daftar Mein Dushwari Ka Samna Hai Ki Yeh Prices Ko Dobara 20-Ghanta Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Jo Taqriban 1.1008 Par Hai, Ke Upar La Saken. Is Waqt, Price Action Ek Darmiyani Range Pattern Mein Phansa Hua Hai, Jo 100-Din Ke EMA 1.0821 Se Technical Support Leh Raha Hai. Is Support Ke Bawajood, Momentum Abhi Bhi Bearish Hai, Aur EUR/USD Apne Haali Swing High Se Jo Ke 1.1200 Se Thora Upar Tha, Peeche Hat Raha Hai.




Rozana Timeframe Mein, Spot Price Channel Formation Ki Upper Boundary Ke Qareeb Waqe Hai. Agar Yeh Pattern Tod Jaye, Toh Yeh Badhay Qeemati Harkat Aur Trading Volume Mein Izafa La Sakte Hain. 20-Din Ka EMA, Jo Ke 1.0800 Ke Qareeb Hai, Euro Bulls Ke Liye Ahem Support Level Ka Kaam Karta Hai. Is Ke Ilawa, 14-Din Ka Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 Se Ooper Chala Gaya Hai. Agar RSI Is Level Se Ooper Barqarar Rehta Hai, Toh Kareeb Muddat Mein Bullish Momentum Ko Tehreek Mil Sakti Hai.

Euro ne Thursday ki trading session ke shuruati ghanton mein kafi utaar-chadhaav dekhe, jo market ki direction talashne ki koshish ko darshata hai. Lagta hai ke currency 1.11 level ki taraf wapas aanay ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh is level ke neeche toot jaye, toh hum 1.10 mark tak mazeed girawat dekh saktay hain. Kul mila kar, market ek do-rāhe par nazar aata hai, yeh andaza lagane ki koshish karte huay ke kya iske paas apni upar ki taraf chalne wali trajectory ko jari rakhne ki kafi momentum hai. Agar euro 1.1175 level se upar nikalne mein kamyab hota hai, toh yeh 1.1250 tak ke rally ki raah hamwar kar sakta hai.

In tehrikon ka bohat kuch Federal Reserve ke action par munhasir hai, khaas tor par mumkin rate cuts ke hawale se. Jabke Fed se September mein rate cut ki ummeed ki ja rahi hai, lekin iske kitne aggressive hone ka taayyun abhi tak nahi ho saka. Market ne shayad abhi tak kisi aggressive rate cut ki imkaan ko poori tarah se price mein shamil nahi kiya hai, jo ke global economy ke hawale se tashiwi hoga. Aise halaat mein, aam tor par US dollar ko faida hota hai kyun ke sarmaaya daaron ko iqtisadi bay-yaqeeni ke doran US Treasury bond markets ki taraf ruju karte hue dekha jaata hai.

Technical nazariyah se dekha jaye, toh yeh baat zaroori hai ke Euro abhi bhi Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke mutabiq ek overbought state mein hai. Iske ilawa, RSI aur price action ke darmiyan kuch divergence bhi hai, jo yeh zahir kar sakta hai ke ek pullback nazar ke saamne hai. Yeh divergence aksar ek warning sign ke taur par kaam karta hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke mumkin hai ke maujooda trend apni raftar kho raha ho.




Mukhtasar yeh ke, jabke euro ne mazbooti dikhayi hai, iska mustaqbil ka rukh aksar technical factors aur Federal Reserve ke faislon par munhasir hoga. Traders ko chahiye ke wo ahem support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhain aur kisi bhi divergence ki alamaton ko dekhte hue mumkin market ke utaar-chadhaav mein raasta nikalein.

EUR/USD H4 Euro - US Dollar ke currency pair ki technical analysis Heiken Ashi candlesticks aur TMA (Triangular Moving Average) aur RSI indicators ke combination ke zariye ki gayi hai. Ye analysis market mein clear bullish sentiment ko indicate karti hai. Heiken Ashi candle indicator jo ke market ke current forces ko dikhata hai, chart par noise ko smooth kar deta hai, jis se technical analysis karna aur trading decisions lena aasan ho jata hai aur zyada accurate ho jata hai. TMA channel indicator (red, blue, aur yellow color ke lines) support aur resistance lines build karta hai based on twice-smoothed movings aur effectively instrument ke movement ke current boundaries ko dikhata hai. RSI basement indicator ek auxiliary oscillator hai jo Heiken Ashi ke saath combination mein achhe results dikhata hai.

Pesh kiye gaye chart par dekhne ko milta hai ke candles ne blue color pakra hai, jo buyers ki priority ko indicate karta hai. Price ne lower channel boundary (red dashed line) ko cross kiya, minimum point se bounce kiya, aur phir se channel mein wapas aayi aur ab iski movement middle line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf hai. Isi waqt, RSI oscillator bhi buy signal ko fully confirm karta hai, kyunki iska curve upwards move kar raha hai aur overbought level ke qareeb nahi hai. Isliye, hum long position kholte hain with the target of at least reaching the upper channel boundary (blue dashed line) jo ke 1.12392 ke price level par hai. Uske baad, hum position ko breakeven par le aayenge aur mazeed profit growth ke liye intezar karenge.

Jumma ke din ke European session mein, EUR/USD ka jo jo jor dekhne ko mila, wo 1.1204 ke qareeb pohnch gaya. Ye uchaal Eurozone mein August ke liye ummeed se zyada price pressures ki wajah se tha, jo sawal utha rahe hain ke kya European Central Bank (ECB) apni policy easing cycle ko agle September meeting mein dobara shuru karega. Eurozone mein inflation ke tez hone ke baad, bazar ke hissedaron ko ECB ke agle qadam ke bare mein guftagu hai.

Shant Data Hafte; USD Ka Barhawa, EUR/USD Pe Dabaav

Baqi hafte ke dauran, significant economic data releases ki kami nazar aati hai. Traders ko agle hafte tak high-impact events se kuch araam milne wala hai, jab key indicators release honge. Isme US Producer Price Index (PPI) Tuesday ko, European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth Wednesday ko, aur US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation shamil hain, jo bazar ke jazbat aur currency movements ko influence kar sakte hain.

Is dauran, US Treasury bond yields mein kafi izafa hua hai, jo January ke baad se sabse bara izafa hai. Ye izafa USD ke recovery mein madadgar sabit hua hai, jo Monday ko apne sabse niche level par tha. ECB ke Eurozone ke economic prospects ke bare mein pessimistic outlook ne EUR/USD pair par downward pressure daala hai. Lekin, supportive German macroeconomic data ne thodi resistance provide ki hai.

EUR/USD Ka 1.1350 Ke Qareeb Deykha Ja Raha Hai; Resistance 1.1237 Aur 1.1269

Agar EUR/USD August ke high 1.1204 se upar move karta hai to ye 1.1350 ke next target ki taraf barh sakta hai aur shayad psychological resistance level 1.1300 tak bhi pohnch sakta hai. Filhal, pair 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.1137 ke qareeb resistance ka saamna kar raha hai. Price action abhi subdued hai, aur EUR/USD 9-day EMA 1.1169 ke just upar oscillate kar raha hai.

Friday ko, EUR/USD ka jo jo hai woh kuch stability ka samna kar raha tha, aur early European session mein 1.1204 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha. Lekin, risk aversion ke badh jaane aur Germany ke Q2 ke GDP data ke kamzor hone ke bawajood, yeh pair thoda neeche chala gaya. Traders ne Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate decision se pehle cautious stance adopt kiya, aur EUR/USD ne market close kiya 1.1191 ke aas-paas.

**EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ne September ke liye rate cut ke conditions ko clear kar diya hai. Unho ne kaha hai ke inflation trends mein continuous improvements aur stable ya weakening labor market zaroori hain. Yeh guidance US economic data releases ke liye ek clear benchmark hai. US Nonfarm Payrolls report, jo Friday ko release hone wali hai, expected hai ke Fed ke criteria mein se ek ko meet karegi, jisme August ke liye job additions ke decrease hone ka projection hai.

In insights ke bawajood, market abhi September ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ke liye 100% probability of rate cut ko price kar raha hai. Lekin, aane wale weeks mein key US economic data par focus se zyada volatility expected hai. Investors paradoxically continued softening in US economic indicators ki umeed kar rahe hain, taake Fed September 18 ko rate cut proceed kar sake.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD intraday mein 1.1150 ke level ke aas-paas congestion ka samna kar raha hai. Bulls ke liye 20-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ko 1.1008 ke aas-paas wapas upar push karna mushkil ho raha hai. Filhal, price action mid-range pattern mein **** hua hai, jahan 100-day EMA se technical support mil raha hai jo 1.0821 ke aas-paas hai. Is support ke bawajood, momentum bearish hai, aur EUR/USD apne recent swing high jo 1.1200 ke upar tha, se pull back kar raha hai.

Daily timeframe par, spot price Channel formation ke upper boundary ke paas positioned hai. Is pattern se breakout hone par broader price movements aur increased trading volume dekhne ko mil sakti hai. 20-day EMA jo 1.0800 ke aas-paas hai, Euro bulls ke liye ek significant support level bana hua hai. Saath hi, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI 60.00 ke upar chala gaya hai. Agar RSI is level ke upar sustain raha, toh short-term mein bullish momentum trigger ho sakta hai.

**EUR/USD Analysis**

Eurozone se macroeconomic data ke shaii' honay ke baad, European currency dollar ke sath growth ki koshish kar rahi hai. Germany ka June ka producer price index 1.8% tha, jo ke April me 2.6% tha; experts ne 1.6% ki kami ka tajwez diya tha. Experts ke mutabiq, producer price index ne saalana buniyad par 33.6% tak barh gaya hai.

European Union ke Statistics Office ke data ke mutabiq, region me construction volumes April me pichle mahine ke muqablay 1.2% kam hue hain. Magar, saalana buniyad par construction volumes 4% barh gaye hain.

Chart:

Pichle hafte, euro-dollar EUR/USD currency pair 1.1140 se upar majboot hui. Relative strength indicator four-hour chart par downtrend line ko test kar raha hai, jo ye darshata hai ke euro kamzor ho raha hai. Isliye, EUR/USD (Euro Dollar) forecast 23 July 2022 ke liye yeh hai ke 1.1050-1.11300 ke ilaqe se girawat dobara shuru ho sakti hai. Pehla target 1.1145 ke aas-paas hai.

Pichle hafte, EUR/USD pair 1.1160 tak gir gaya, jo ke May ke lows ke nazdeek tha, lekin baad mein thoda recover hui, aur 1.1030 tak pohnch gaya. General taur par, market ab bhi pareshani mein hai.

Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko tight karne ki wajah se US currency majboot hui hai. Regulator ka pichle hafte 1.65 percent tak interest rate barhane ka faisla investors ki US recession ke mumkinah khauf ko barhawa deta hai, jo ke ek alternative asset ko boost kar sakta hai. Janet Yellen ne Friday ko markets ko yeh tasalli dene ki koshish ki ke strong labor market US economy ko boost kar raha hai, lekin yeh zyada irrelevant laga. 4-hour chart par price behavior dekhna zaroori hai taake jab wahan peak banay, to sell enter kar sakein. Target 1.1125 aur phir 1.1145 rakha ja sakta hai jab wahan peak banay.