𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

Investors Federal Reserve Chair Jerom Powell ki upcoming address par keenly focused hain Jackson Hole Symposium mein Friday ko, jo U.S. central bank ki future monetary policy direction ke liye crucial insights provide kar sakta hai. Yeh anticipation ne markets mein cautious optimism ka sense create kiya hai, especially EUR/USD currency pair ke baare mein.

EUR/USD pair currently Wednesday ke same range mein trade kar raha hai, stability maintain karte hue Powell ki speech par heightened attention ke baad. Notably, pair apni year-to-date high 1.1775 ke qareeb hover kar raha hai, jo euro ki dollar ke khilaf significant appreciation ko reflect karta hai.

Yeh level traders aur analysts ke liye focal point ban gaya hai, jo closely monitor kar rahe hain ki euro apni recent gains ko extend kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Guzeel char dinon mein, EUR/USD pair winning streak par hai, confluence of factors ki wajah se. Pehle, eurozone ki economic outlook mein improvement ke signs dikha rahe hain, key indicators global uncertainties ke baad bhi resilience ko point kar rahe hain. Yeh euro mein confidence ko bolster kar raha hai, investors mein demand ko increase kar raha hai.

Doosre, U.S. dollar ko mixed economic data aur U.S. economic recovery ki sustainability ke concerns ki wajah se downward pressure ka saamna hai. Federal Reserve ne economy ko support karne ka signal diya hai, lekin potential tapering ke timing aur scale ke baare mein abhi bhi sawal hain. Yeh uncertainty ne dollar ki relative weakness mein contribute kiya hai, euro ko additional boost provide kiya hai.

Powell ki speech ke approach, market likely remain within trading range mein hai, significant volatility ke potential ke saath remarks ki tone aur content par depend karta hai. Agar Powell dovish stance ki hint dete hain, EUR/USD pair ko upward momentum dekhne ko mil sakta hai, potentially 1.1775 level ko break karne ke liye. Conversely, hawkish tone euro ki rally ko halt kar sakta hai aur pullback ko lead kar sakta hai.

Summary mein, EUR/USD pair ki near-term trajectory Powell ki address se heavily influence hogi, traders aur investors ke liye critical event ban gaya hai

EUR/USD Forum Analysis Forecast

Mutaabiq graph ke mapping results se, ye clear hai ke EUR/USD market mein currency pair ki condition abhi bhi buyer's troops ki dominance mein hai, last week ke end se. Price position jo upar move kar raha hai aur abhi bhi 1.1117 level ke aaspaas chal raha hai, market ko increase karne ki indication hai. Buyer's troops ko abhi bhi bullish trend ka continuation expect hai, jo last few days mein hua hai.

Market mein movement currently sideways lagta hai lekin price abhi bhi Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ke upar khel raha hai, isliye future mein 1.1150 level ko test karne ki possibility hai. Agar confirmed ho jata hai ke us level ko penetrate kar sakta hai, to market ko increase karne ki zyada opportunities hongi.

MACD indicator par histogram bar ki position consistently zero level ke upar move kar rahi hai, isse market ko bullish trend mein move kar raha hai. Candlestick ki monitoring se, jo 1.1050 level ke upar stay kar raha hai, main think karta hoon ke trend abhi bhi bullish trend ko continue karne ki potential hai. Agar price phir se 1.1130 level ke aaspaas move karta hai, to wo BUY trading karne ka good moment hai. Kyunki us time entry signal ki possibility zyada valid hai.

EUR/USD market ki latest trend conditions abhi bhi bullish trend mein hain, isliye transacting ke time current trend ko prioritize karna zaroori hai, taaki profit ki potential increase ho.

US Dollar Index (DXY) ne persistent weakness dikhai hai, 0.20% drop ke saath 101.10 ke aaspaas. Ye decline Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ko ease karne ki expectations se closely tied hai. Investors ko potential rate cut ke liye position li hai, jisne Dollar ki sell-off aur EUR/USD pair ki corresponding rise ko lead kiya hai.

Jackson Hole Symposium, jo later week mein scheduled hai, market ko focus kar raha hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech symposium mein highly anticipated hai, jo Fed ki policy direction par further clarity provide kar sakti hai. Market US PMI figures ki release ka bhi intezar kar raha hai, jo economic health ki crucial indicators hain aur Fed ki decisions ko influence kar sakti hain.

Technically, EUR/USD pair ne significant resistance levels ko breach kiya hai, bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Agar pair continue rise karta hai, to 1.1150 level ya beyond ko target kar sakta hai. Lekin upcoming data aur Powell ki speech volatility introduce kar sakti hai, particularly agar Fed ki tone more hawkish hai. Agar data upside surprise karta hai, to Euro ki gains ko dampen kar sakta hai, next support level 1.1050 ke aaspaas

EUR/USD currency pair ne ek strong rebound show kiya hai, levels below 1.1000 se rising. After briefly testing above 1.0950, pair ne resilience aur strength demonstrate ki apni recovery mein. Yeh upward movement significant hai, kyun ke yeh pair ki ability ko underscore karta hai higher push karne ki despite ongoing market pressures. Ek critical technical indicator recent movement hai EUR/USD pair ka above 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo currently positioned hai at 1.0826. 200-day EMA ek crucial benchmark hai traders aur analysts ke liye, jo serve karta hai as a dividing line between long-term bullish aur bearish trends. Is level ko surpass karna ek strong bullish signal hai, jo suggest karta hai ke EUR/USD pair ek phase of powerful short-term upward momentum mein enter ho raha hai. 200-day EMA ke upar movement reflect karta hai ek shift in market sentiment, attracting traders eager to engage with the bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) ek essential tool hai EUR/USD pair ki momentum ko evaluate karne ke liye. Currently, RSI hover kar raha hai around 60, indicating ke pair overbought territory mein nahi hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke bullish trend abhi extend hone ka potential hai without an imminent risk of reversal. Ek RSI reading near 60 strong buying momentum ko signal karta hai, jo traders ke liye confidence instill karta hai about the continuation of the upward trend.
Volume analysis further support karta hai bullish outlook ko EUR/USD pair ke liye. Recent trading volumes rise hui hain during the upward movement, signaling strong market participation aur backing for the current trend. Higher trading volumes often precede significant price movements, lending credibility to the overall bullish trend. Yeh solid foundation of market participation bullish signals ke reliability ko enhance karta hai.
Lagta hai ke bearish correction movement aage bhi 1.0892 par RBS area ko retest karne ki koshish karegi aur phir 1.0869 tak ke agle RBS level tak pohnchne ki umeed hai. 1.0862-1.0892 ke RBS levels se bullish price action ko bullish trend ko continue karne ke liye ek achha foothold banaya ja sakta hai. Is price level range par pending buy limit orders rakhi ja sakti hain, jiska target tp1 1.0950 tak supply area ko reach karna hai aur tp2 ko is haftay ke highest price limit 1.1008 tak test karna hai. Buying plan ke liye risk loss limit ma200 (blue) movement limit ke neeche 1.0820 ke aas-paas rakha ja sakta hai. Sales plan ke liye do options hain: ek short-term cell entry jo bearish correction movement ke continuation ke sath supply area 1.0950 par bullish rejection ka intezar karega. Long-term sales plan tab consider kiya ja sakta hai jab trend bearish phase mein enter kare, jaise ke ma200 (blue) movement limit ke neeche 1.0777 tak girawat dekhne ko mile. Lekin, seller ko pehle 1.0900 ke support ko solid breakout ke sath penetrate karna hoga, warna bullish rejection is bearish scenario ko later thwart kar sakti hai. Instant sell open karna abhi risky lagta hai, kyun ke 1.0900 ke aas-paas fakeout ho sakta hai jo bullish movement ko drive kar sakta hai.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

Ye discussion EUR/USD ke price behavior ke analysis par hai. Hum iss waqt 1.1224 level par hain, jahan se rebound hone ka signal mil sakta hai jo sell ka mauqa ban sakta hai. Lekin, hum is baat par nazar rakhenge ke market kaise open hoti hai, kyun ke Hezbollah ke Israel par attack ke bais bearish price gap ka possibility hai. Har halat mein, Monday ko 1.1134 tak girawat ka chance hai. Yeh abhi tak tay nahi hai ke price 1.1224 se upar jaye gi ya nahi, khaaskar jab ke yeh saal ka high nahi hai. Aisi growth jo sirf anticipation par mabni ho, bina U.S. mein positivity ya Europe mein negativity ko reflect kiye hue, speculative lagti hai. Magar, yeh speculation zyada medium-term play lag rahi hai. Pichle haftay EUR/USD mein tezi dekhi gayi.

Powell ke Jackson Hole mein annual economic symposium par remarks questionable lag rahe hain. Lekin Powell dono sides ko khush karne ki koshish kar raha hai, Democrats aur Republicans ko bhi.

Doosri taraf, Republicans ko apne business interests ke liye weaker dollar ki zaroorat hai. Mujhe shak hai ke U.S. dollar shayad akhri dafa neeche ki taraf move kare (halan ke yeh meri wishful thinking bhi ho sakti hai ke yeh 1.1000 se neeche chala jaye). ECB ne aakhri dafa rate cut kiya tha, aur mazeed cut ke discussions ho rahe hain. Bank of England ne bhi ek cut kiya, jab ke Fed apni jagah barqarar hai. Lekin dollar pressure mein hai rate cut ke expectations ki wajah se, aur yeh pressure spring mein shuru hua jab pehli dafa rate nahi tha. June mein girawat ki umeed thi, jiski wajah se dollar sell-offs hue, aur ab September par focus hai. Powell ke Friday ke comments ne in expectations ko confirm kar diya, halan ke usne khule taur par

EUR/USD H1 Chart

Jab investors ka focus Fed Powell ke JH Symposium mein address par tha, EUR/USD pair ne 1.1100 ke round-level support ke ooper rehna manage kiya. Daily time frame par ek channel formation ke breakout ke baad, common currency pair ka outlook positive hai. Short se long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) ke increased slope ke basis par ek significant upswing dikhayi de rahi hai. Halanki 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought levels ko cross kar raha hai, magar upward momentum abhi bhi strong hai. RSI 60.00-80.00 ke positive region mein oscillate kar raha hai. Agar euro bulls December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 ko clearly break kar dete hain, toh woh 1.1200 ke round-level resistance ko retake kar sakte hain. Downside par, ek significant support zone 1.1100 ke round-level number ke paas majood hai.





EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD ke hourly chart par ek bullish trend dikhayi de raha hai. Agar hum 1.0777 ke low se le kar aakhri upward impulse ko dekhen, toh EUR/USD ke liye critical resistance 1.1151 ke first impulse zone par hai. Agar is level ka northern breakout sach sabit hota hai aur quotes uske ooper consolidate ho jate hain, toh yeh apni growth ko barhane ke liye 1.2439 ke next level tak pahunch sakta hai. Lekin agar 1.1151 ke level ka breakout false sabit hota hai aur sellers consolidate kar lete hain, toh EUR/USD ki price apni decline ko central angle of ascending fan aur last northern start line 1.1008 tak continue kar sakti hai, lekin sellers ko turant neechay nahi jaane diya ja sakta. Hum Fed ke head Powell ka speech aur market reaction ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke most likely EUR/USD ke aage ke prospects ko determine karega.

EUR/USD D1 Chart

Monday bonus update sir Aviz sir, please send me with my bonus.

EUR/USD currency pair ka price chart abhi yeh suggest kar raha hai ke agar price decline hota hai, toh selling viable ho sakti hai. Lekin agar price rise hoti hai, toh ek buy position consider ki ja sakti hai. Har kisi ka apna nazariya hota hai, toh different perspectives ka hona koi nuksan nahi. Humne accumulation level 1.0952 se ek clear upward rebound dekha hai, aur ab is rebound ke baad ek bullish signal emerge ho raha hai. Critical price level jo dekhne layak hai, woh 1.1034 hai, jo protected zone ka lower boundary mark karta hai. Agar market khulte hi price 1.1034 tak chali jati hai aur volumes ke support ke saath ek bearish signal wahan se nikalta hai, toh EUR/USD pair ki price dobara accumulation zone ko retest kar sakti hai.






Market Outlook

Is provided information se lagta hai ke author agle hafta market mein ek bearish trend expect kar rahe hain. Woh kam se kam value 1.0749 anticipate kar rahe hain, aur initial target 1.0859 hai. Author cautiously optimistic hain ke agle hafta bearish trend-based activity ho sakti hai. Unka maanna hai ke bearish sentiment strong hoga, jisse market control shift ho sakta hai. Agle hafta kaafi volatile hone ki umeed hai, jahan major currency pairs aur gold apni range shift karenge. Author advise karte hain ke is dauran bade ehtiyat ke saath trade karein. Filhaal, Wednesday ko sellers resistance provide karne lage hain aur bullish buyers ko rokne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Yeh likely hai ke price pehle bearish correction face karegi, phir buyer support area 1.0970-1.0965 ke aas-paas pohanchegi. Price range abhi 1.0940-1.0938 par hai. Agar current price hold karne mein fail hoti hai, toh buyer control le sakte hain aur price ko seller resistance area 1.1027-1.1030 ke darmiyan push karne ki koshish karenge. Iske ilawa, ek strong support level 1.09117 ke aas-paas hai, jisse pehle downward price movement test kar chuka hai, lekin yeh level hold kar gaya tha. Yeh indicate karta hai ke is area mein buyer interest significant hai, jo further price decline ko roknay mein madadgar hai.

EUR/USD Update

EUR/USD pair ne week ke aakhir mein apne upward momentum mein ek pause dekha, aur Wednesday ko achieve kiye gaye previous high tak nahi pohanch saka. US dollar (USD) ki recent sell-off ke bawajood, spot price abhi bhi 1.1125 level ke ooper hai. Euro ko support karne wala ek ahem factor US labor market ka weak hona raha hai. Wednesday ko release hone wale data ne dikhaya ke March mein US employment growth initial estimate se kaafi kam thi. Iske ilawa, berozgar logon ki tadaad barhne se labor market cool hoti hui nazar aa rahi hai, jo ke economic slowdown ka signal ho sakta hai. Is wajah se September mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate cut ki umeed barh gayi hai, jo euro ko support kar raha hai.

Jab ke weaker US dollar ne EUR/USD ko kuch support diya, Eurozone ka mixed Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne bullish sentiment ko thoda dheela kar diya. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se kam raha, lekin ab bhi 50 ke level se ooper tha, jo expansion ko indicate karta hai. Lekin Germany, jo eurozone ki sab se bari economy hai, apne doosray consecutive month mein contraction face kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone mein slower wage growth EUR/USD pair ke significant appreciation ko limit kar sakti hai.

ECB ke July policy meeting mein September mein monetary policy tightening ka reassessment karne ka ishara diya gaya tha. ECB Governing Committee ke ek member ne economy ke hawale se concerns ka izhar kiya aur kaha ke upcoming meeting mein interest rate cuts par baat ho sakti hai. Yeh sab factors EUR/USD pair ke further upside ko cap kar sakte hain.





Technical Perspective

Technical perspective se dekha jaye toh EUR/USD abhi bhi short-term uptrend line ke ooper hai aur pehle ke horizontal range ke upper bound se kaafi ooper trade kar raha hai. Lekin short-term oscillators yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke upward momentum kamzor hota dikhai de raha hai, jo ek potential correction ka ishara de raha hai before next leg higher. Agar EUR/USD pair uptrend line aur 1.1030 level ke ooper hold kar leta hai, toh yeh 1.1130 aur 1.1240 levels tak barh sakta hai. Lekin agar price 1.0950 ya 1.0900 ke levels se neechay break karti hai, toh ek potential reversal ka signal mil sakta hai.

Conclusion

EUR/USD pair ko weaker US dollar aur Fed rate cut expectations se support mil raha hai, lekin mixed Eurozone economic data aur ECB ke monetary policy path par uncertainty further upside ko limit kar sakti hai. Technical indicators suggest karte hain ke ek short-term correction ho sakti hai before next leg higher.

Jumay ko trading session ke aakhir mein spot price mein 0.20% ki halka si girawat dekhi gayi, jis ne pichlay do hafton ke doran apne nuqsan ko lagbhag 0.12% tak barhaya. Jab sarmaayadar Federal Reserve ke aanay wale rate faisle ke liye tayaari kar rahe hain aur European inflation ke key updates ka intezar kar rahe hain, toh currency pair mein abhi bhi volatility nazar aa rahi hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD lagbhag 1.1120 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Pair ko kuch support mila jab yeh takreeban 1.1140 tak rebound hua, is ke peechay July ke liye mixed preliminary S&P Global PMI report ka haath tha. Composite PMI 55.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke pehle ke 54.8 se zyada tha, aur yeh service sector mein mazboot growth ke wajah se hua. Service PMI bhi unexpected tor par 56.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke mutawaqqa 54.4 aur pehle ke 55.3 se behtar tha. Lekin, Manufacturing PMI gir kar 49.5 par aa gaya, jo ke anticipated 51.7 se neeche tha, aur yeh manufacturing activities mein contraction ko signal kar raha tha.

Aage dekhte hue, agar inflation pressures mutawaqqa ke mutabiq kam hotay hain, toh Federal Reserve ke rate cuts ki tawaqo barh sakti hai. Warna, agar inflation ziddi tor par zyada rehta hai, toh rate-cut ki tawaqoat kamzor par sakti hain. CME FedWatch tool abhi yeh indicate kar raha hai ke central bank apne September meeting mein key borrowing rates ko kam karna shuru karne ka imkaan hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jabke pair ne apne July-August rally ke 50% Fibonacci retracement ke upar strength dikhayi hai, ehtiyaat ki zarurat hai. Daily chart ke oscillators bearish signals dikhana shuru kar rahe hain, jo ke currency pair ke liye ek potential downward trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Mid-1.1177 ke chaar mahine ke high se pullback ko mazboot karne ke liye, pair ko 100-day Simple Moving Average ke neeche break karna hoga.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis aur Forecast

Subah bakhair dosto! Aur meri simple trading journal mein phir se khush amadeed. Weekend ke baad kaise hain sab? Umeed hai ke sab hamesha sehatmand rahte hain aur iss forum mein market ko analyze karte hue purjosh rehte hain. Aaj subah forex market khula hai aur yeh waqt hai ke hum forex market se dollars ikattha karein. Aaj ke is moqay par, main EURUSD market ko analyze karunga taake is week ke shuru mein entry ke liye tayari kar sakein.

EURUSD currency pair ne Friday ke trading session mein bullish move kiya aur D1 time frame par ek bullish candle form hui jab market last week close hua. Abhi pair ka price 1.1188 par trade ho raha hai jo ke previous day ke opening price se zyada hai. Upar diye gaye picture mein hum dekh sakte hain ke H4 time frame par candle ki position MA 24 line ke ooper hai, jabke stochastic indicator 5.3.3 ab level 80 ki taraf ja raha hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke iss week EURUSD currency pair abhi bhi buyers ke control mein hai.

Fundamentals ki baat karein toh shayad is week ke shuru mein ziada high impact news release nahi hui, toh hum apni technical analysis par focus kar sakte hain. Upar di gayi technical analysis ke mutabiq, aaj ke trading session ke liye expect kiya ja raha hai ke EURUSD pair apna bullish trend continue karega. Hum is pair mein buy action ka moqa dekh sakte hain, lekin hamesha money management ko theek tareeke se implement karna chahiye taake account ki resilience mazboot rahe aur acche tareeke se maintained ho, aur umeed hai ke hum maximum profit hasil kar sakein is forex market se.





Meri aaj ke trading plan ke mutabiq, main buy action ka moqa dekhunga, jisme main buy limit order 1.1150 ke price par place karunga, profit target 1.1180 par rakhoonga aur stoploss ko 1.1120 par set karunga. Lot volume ko hum apne trading account ki resistance ke mutabiq adjust kar sakte hain. Yeh hai aaj ka trading journal update jo main is subah share kar raha hoon, umeed hai ke yeh doston ke liye faidamand sabit ho aur market mein entry ka faisla karne ke liye ek reference ban sake.

Jumay ko trading session ke aakhir mein spot price mein 0.20% ki halka si girawat dekhi gayi, jis ne pichlay do hafton ke doran apne nuqsan ko lagbhag 0.12% tak barhaya. Jab sarmaayadar Federal Reserve ke aanay wale rate faisle ke liye tayaari kar rahe hain aur European inflation ke key updates ka intezar kar rahe hain, toh currency pair mein abhi bhi volatility nazar aa rahi hai. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD lagbhag 1.1120 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Pair ko kuch support mila jab yeh takreeban 1.1140 tak rebound hua, is ke peechay July ke liye mixed preliminary S&P Global PMI report ka haath tha. Composite PMI 55.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke pehle ke 54.8 se zyada tha, aur yeh service sector mein mazboot growth ke wajah se hua. Service PMI bhi unexpected tor par 56.0 tak barh gaya, jo ke mutawaqqa 54.4 aur pehle ke 55.3 se behtar tha. Lekin, Manufacturing PMI gir kar 49.5 par aa gaya, jo ke anticipated 51.7 se neeche tha, aur yeh manufacturing activities mein contraction ko signal kar raha tha.

Aage dekhte hue, agar inflation pressures mutawaqqa ke mutabiq kam hotay hain, toh Federal Reserve ke rate cuts ki tawaqo barh sakti hai. Warna, agar inflation ziddi tor par zyada rehta hai, toh rate-cut ki tawaqoat kamzor par sakti hain. CME FedWatch tool abhi yeh indicate kar raha hai ke central bank apne September meeting mein key borrowing rates ko kam karna shuru karne ka imkaan hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jabke pair ne apne July-August rally ke 50% Fibonacci retracement ke upar strength dikhayi hai, ehtiyaat ki zarurat hai. Daily chart ke oscillators bearish signals dikhana shuru kar rahe hain, jo ke currency pair ke liye ek potential downward trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Mid-1.1177 ke chaar mahine ke high se pullback ko mazboot karne ke liye, pair ko 100-day Simple Moving Average ke neeche break karna hoga.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

Is waqt hum EUR/USD ke price behavior ko analyze kar rahe hain. Hum abhi 1.1224 ke level par hain, jahan se ek rebound sell ka moqa de sakta hai. Lekin hum market ke khulne ka intezar karenge, kyunke Hezbollah ke Israel par hamlay ki wajah se bearish price gap ki possibility hai. Phir bhi, Monday ko price ke 1.1134 tak girne ka chance hai. Yeh dekhna abhi baqi hai ke growth 1.1224 se upar jaata hai ya nahi, khaaskar jab yeh yearly high nahi hai. Aisi growth jo sirf anticipation par mabni ho, bina U.S. ke positive ya Europe ke negative factors ko reflect kiye, speculative lagti hai. Magar yeh speculation zyada tar medium-term play lag raha hai. Guzishta hafta EUR/USD ne upward surge dekha.

Powell ke Jackson Hole mein annual economic symposium par Friday ko diye gaye remarks questionable lagte hain. Magar Powell dono sides ko khush karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, chahe woh Democrats hoon ya Republicans.






Republicans ko apne business interests ke liye weaker dollar ki zarurat hai. Mujhe shak hai ke U.S. dollar ek aakhri move downward karega (shayad yeh meri apni khwahish hai ke yeh 1.1000 se neechay chala jaye). ECB ne last time rates cut kiye thay, aur discussions mein further reductions ka zikr hai. Bank of England ne bhi ek cut kiya, jabke Fed abhi tak steady hai. Lekin dollar par pressure hai rate cut ki umeed ki wajah se, yeh pressure tab shuru hua jab spring mein pehli dafa rate nahi diya gaya tha. June mein decline anticipate kiya gaya tha, jiski wajah se dollar sell-offs huye, aur ab focus September par hai. Powell ke comments Friday ko in expectations ko confirm karte hain, halan ke unhone yeh explicitly nahi kaha. Experts ne isko likely rate cut samjha hai, jo achi khabar hogi kyunke sab ko economic indicators par focus karne ka moqa milega. Monday ke liye trading range 1.1224 aur 1.1134 ke darmiyan rahegi.

Price Action Insights: EUR/USD

Is waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka analysis kiya ja raha hai. H-4 chart par euro-dollar buyers ka potential H1 time frame ke muqable mein zyada hai. Unka agla target pehla impulse zone ka upper boundary 1.1238 ho sakta hai, lekin false breakout ka bhi halka chance hai. Sab se qareebi significant support EUR/USD ke liye pehla zone ka lower edge 1.1150 par hai. Agar single currency ka price is level ke neeche chala jata hai, chahe Friday ke high tak pochne ke baad ho ya apni current position se turant, toh yeh aglay support levels tak gir sakta hai, jo ke ascending fan ke central corner 1.1059 aur last bullish start line 1.1007 ke qareeb hain. In points se potential new growth attempts ho sakti hain. U.S. dollar ke force central scenario mein EUR/USD quotes ka impulsive breakout aur consolidation 1.1238 ke ooper ho sakta hai, jisme agay aur growth ka chance hoga towards aglay impulse zone at 1.1379





Pichlay Friday ko market ka behavior hairan kun tha, jisme trading day ke end mein takreeban 100-point ka impulse move dekhne ko mila—yeh kuch aesa tha jo aksar logon ne expect nahi kiya tha. Lekin market Monday ko reverse kar sakti hai aur Friday ke movement ko retrace kar sakti hai. Yeh volatility average daily range se zyada thi, jo traders ko ek reversal ki anticipation de rahi hai jo ab tak materialize nahi hui. Yeh baat note karne wali hai ke yeh channel ab bhi poore mahine tak ka span le sakta hai. Jab hum isay August ke monthly candle ke saath dekhte hain, jo is channel ke lower boundary se bani thi, toh primary channel zyada strong lagta hai. Daily chart par slope angle kaafi shallow hai, jiski wajah se bullish breakout prevailing logic ke khilaf mushkil lagta hai. Lekin agar pair is central channel ko break karta hai, toh yeh 20-figure mark tak poch sakta hai. Magar 1.1279 ke maximum ko cross karne ke baad upper limit tak pochna kaafi challenging hoga.

EUR/USD D1 Chart Analysis

Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne September mein potential rate cut ke liye zaruri shara'it wazeh ki hain. Unhone khaas taur par bataya ke inflation trends mein behtari aur labor market ka ya toh stable rehna ya kamzor hona ahem shara'it hain. Yeh guidance US economic data releases ke liye ek wazeh benchmark faraham karta hai. Is haftay, US Nonfarm Payrolls report ka release hone wala hai, jisme umeed hai ke Fed ke ek criterion ko pura kiya ja sakega. Projections ke mutabiq, August mein job additions mein kami dekhne ko milegi. In insights ke bawajood, market is waqt September ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting mein 100% probability rate cut ki price kar raha hai. Magar aanay walay hafton mein key US economic data par focus rakhna aur ziada volatility ko janam de sakta hai. Investors paradoxically yeh umeed kar rahe hain ke US economic indicators mein aur softening dekhi jaye taake Fed September 18 ko scheduled rate cut ki taraf barh sake.



Monday ko Asian session ke dauran, EUR/USD pair ne 1.1210 ke qareeb robust trading ki, aur apna multi-year uptrend break kiya. Is gain ke bawajood, aur ziada upward movement ka potential limited ho sakta hai, European Central Bank (ECB) ke September rate cuts ke hawalay se uncertainty ki wajah se. Yeh uncertainty Germany se disappointing economic growth data ke baad barh rahi hai. Jaise jaise Federal Reserve ka interest rate decision qareeb aata hai, markets ka focus usi par hoga. Eurozone mein, economy ne second quarter mein 0.3% growth ki, jo ke market consensus ke 0.2% increase ko surpass karti hai. Yeh expansion ek resilient economic backdrop ko darshata hai, lekin aanay wali preliminary inflation data jo ke broader euro area ke liye hoga, aur Germany ka Retail Sales report bhi crucial sabit hoga. Yeh indicators yeh batane mein madadgar ho sakte hain ke ECB September mein aage rate cuts pursue karega ya nahi.






Darmiyan mein, across the Atlantic, Federal Reserve apne two-day policy meeting ke dauran current interest rates ko barqarar rakhnay ki umeed hai, jo Wednesday ko hone wali hai. Magar market expectations September mein policy easing ke hawalay se ziada hain, kyunke June mein inflation rates anticipated se ziada rapidly decrease hui hain.

EUR/USD Analysis

Eurozone ke macroeconomic data ke publication ke baad, European currency dollar ke sath sath grow karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Germany ka June ka producer price index 1.8% raha, jo April ke 2.6% se kam hai; experts ne 1.6% ki kami ka andaza lagaya tha. Experts ke mutabiq, producer price index annual terms mein 33.6% tak barh gaya.

European Union ke Statistics Office ke mutabiq, region mein construction volumes April mein pichlay mahine ke muqablay 1.2% kam ho gayi. Lekin annual basis par construction volumes mein 4% ka izafa hua.



Hafte ke aghaz mein, euro-dollar EUR/USD currency pair 1.1140 ke upar barh gayi. Relative strength indicator four-hour chart par downtrend line ko test kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke euro kamzor ho raha hai. Is liye, EUR/USD (Euro Dollar) ka forecast 23 July 2022 ke liye yeh hai ke decline ka silsila 1.1050-1.11300 ke area se wapas shuru ho sakta hai. Pehli target decline ke liye kareeban 1.1145 par hai.






Pichle hafte, EUR/USD pair 1.1160 tak gir gayi, jo ke May ke lows ke qareeb tha, lekin baad mein kuch recovery hui aur 1.1030 tak wapas agayi. Aam tor par, market abhi bhi turmoil mein hai.

Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ke tightening ki wajah se, US currency ne mazid strength hasil ki. Regulator ka pichle hafte share ko 1.65 percent tak barhane ka faisla investors ke bechein honay ka sabab bana, jisme ek possible US recession ka khauf shamil hai, jo kisi asset alternative se mazid mazboot hota. Jab Janet Yellen ne Friday ko markets ko yeh tasalli dene ki koshish ki ke ek strong labor market US economy ko support kar raha hai, toh yeh largely irrelevant tha. Yeh zaroori hai ke 4-hour chart par price behavior ko dekha jaye, taake us region mein peak hone par sell ka entry point ban sake. Target ko 1.1125 aur phir 1.1145 par set kiya ja sakta hai jab peak us region mein form ho jaye.

Jumay ko, EUR/USD pair mein kuch consolidation hui aur early European session mein yeh takriban 1.1204 par trade kar rahi thi. Is stability ke bawajood, pair niche chali gayi, jo ke heightened risk aversion aur Germany ke Q2 ke weaker-than-expected preliminary GDP data ki wajah se tha. Traders Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate decision ka intezar kar rahe thay, is liye EUR/USD ne market ko kareeban 1.1191 par close kiya.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne September mein possible rate cut ke liye zaroori shara'it wazeh ki hain. Unhon ne khaas tor par bataya ke inflation trends mein behtari aur labor market ka stable ya kamzor hona key prerequisites hain. Yeh guidance agle ane wale US economic data releases ke liye clear benchmark faraham karti hai. US Nonfarm Payrolls report ka release Jumay ko hone wala hai, jisme yeh umeed ki ja rahi hai ke yeh Fed ke aik shara'it ko pura karega, aur August ke liye job additions mein kami ka andaza lagaya gaya hai.

In insights ke bawajood, market is waqt 100% chance price kar rahi hai ke jab September mein Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ka ijlas hoga toh rate cut zaroor hoga. Lekin agle hafton mein ane wala key US economic data ziada volatility ko janam de sakta hai. Investors paradoxically umeed laga rahe hain ke US economic indicators mein narami barqarar rahegi taake Fed apne September 18 ke rate cut ko implement kare.






Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technical realm mein, EUR/USD intraday congestion ka samna kar rahi hai aur abhi 1.1150 ke qareeb hai. Bulls ko prices ko wapas 20-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke takriban 1.1008 par hai, ke upar push karne mein mushkil ka samna hai. Filhal price action ek mid-range pattern mein phansa hua hai, jisme technical support 100-day EMA se mil raha hai jo 1.0821 par hai. Is support ke bawajood, momentum ab tak bearish hai aur EUR/USD apne recent swing high, jo ke 1.1200 se thoda zyada hai, se wapas gir rahi hai.

Daily Time Frame Chart:


Daily time frame par, spot price ek Channel formation ke upper boundary ke qareeb hai. Agar is pattern se breakout hota hai toh is se broader price movements aur ziada trading volume ka imkaan ho sakta hai. 20-day EMA, jo ke 1.0800 ke qareeb hai, Euro bulls ke liye ek significant support level ke tor par kaam kar rahi hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 se upar chali gayi hai. Agar RSI is level ke upar barqarar rehti hai toh yeh near term mein bullish momentum ko trigger kar sakti hai.