𝐄𝐔𝐑/𝐔𝐒𝐃

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD ki qeemat agay barhne mein kuch hichkichahat dikha rahi hai. Is ilaka mein ek wazeh accumulation pattern ban chuka hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke qeemat ko maujooda sarhad se upar le jane ki dilchaspi kam hai. Agar yeh sahi hai aur maujooda lateral channel ka upar ka hisaab utna asan nahi, to tawajjo neeche ke levels ki taraf shift ho sakti hai. Is surat mein, bazar neeche ki taraf ja sakta hai, jisse qeemat uss se neeche liquidity ko capture karne ki koshish karegi. Agar meri soch sahi hai, to EUR/USD jori ek bearish trend ki taraf ja sakti hai, jisse yeh qeemat 1.1120 ke aas-paas jahan khaas rakhma hai, ki taraf ja sakti hai. Aaj ke din ka bazar kis taraf jata hai, yeh dekhna zaroori hai, lekin agar koi khaas harkat nahi hoti, to jaldi faisle lene se bachna behtar hoga.




Ek bara girawat zaroori nahi hai, lekin pehle ki momentum kamzor pad chuki hai. Qeemat ko aaj ki shuruat ke level ke neeche majbooti se rahna hoga. Oscillators ab bearish ho chuke hain, aur histogram mein local bearish divergence hai. Aaj ki qeemat ka izafa histogram bars ko zero line ke upar sirf thoda hi le gaya hai, jo kamzor upward momentum ko darshata hai. Hamein dekhna hoga ke aaj ka session kaise close hota hai, uske baad hi aage ke faisle lein. Channels ab bhi upward trend mein hain, jo yeh darshata hai ke primary movement abhi bhi bullish hai, aur koi breakdown nahi hua hai. Agar junior channel ka mid line senior channel ke mid line se neeche chala jaye ya ek wazeh downtrend ka signal mile, to selling ka mauka mil sakta hai. Aisi surat mein, target weekly opening level 1.1164 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai. Lekin, direction shift hone ki koi wazeh nishani tak ehtiyaat baratna zaroori hai.

EUR/USD Ka Halat-e-Haal:

Pichli trading session mein EUR/USD ka jora kaafi mustahkam raha, jab ke 24 ghanton mein kuch khaas tabdeeli nahi aayi. Traders ab ahem events ki taraf dhyan de rahe hain, jaise ke US Consumer Price Index (CPI) ka data, jisse is jore mein halka sa izafa dekhne ko mila. Pehle traders ko umeed thi ke pichle haftay ka US economic data yeh wazeh karega ke Federal Reserve (Fed) is mahine 50-basis-point ki zyada aggressive rate cut karega ya sirf 25-basis-point ki. Lekin yeh masla ab tak hal nahi hua, aur maujooda market pricing ab bhi choti rate cut ki taraf jhuki hui hai, jo DXY ko kuch support faraham kar rahi hai.

Jumeraat ko European trading hours mein, jora 1.1160 se upar chadhne mein kamiyab raha, lekin iski upward momentum ko barqarar nahi rakh saka. Jora crucial resistance level 1.1200 ko todne mein nakam raha, jo Euro bulls ke liye ek naya sanket hai ke unki taqat kam ho rahi hai. Shared currency ka qareeb ki nazariyah ab ghalat ho gaya hai, jab jora 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se neeche gir gaya, jo is waqt 1.1069 ke aas-paas hai. Yeh technical halat yeh darust karti hai ke EUR/USD ko apne haal ke izafa ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkilat ka samna karna par sakta hai.

EUR/USD Ke Bunyadi Pehlu:

Services sector mein inflation European Central Bank (ECB) ke liye aik badi rukawat bani hui hai, jo aindah rate cuts ki raftar ko rokti hai. Halankeh Europe mein inflation pressures kam ho rahe hain aur Germany mein growth ko barhawa dene ki zarurat hai, Euro ki taqat ECB ke rate cuts ke waqt ko tezi se agay barha sakti hai. Is dynamic ka asar yeh hoga ke EUR/USD ka upar ki taraf izafa aindah mein mushkil hoga. Is liye, analysts ko umeed nahi hai ke jora aane wale mahine mein 1.12 se upar ja sakega. EUR/USD ke liye 1.10 ki taraf wapas jaane ka mauqa hai, khaaskar jab tak uncertainty ka silsila jaari hai.

CME ke data ke mutabiq, maujooda market bets yeh darust karti hain ke Fed ke liye 50-basis-point ki aggressive rate cut ka 40% mauqa hai. Baqi 60% ek conservative 25-basis-point ki cut ki taraf jhuk rahe hain. Investors mukhtalif reports ka intezar kar rahe hain jo Fed ke pehle rate cut ki gehraai aur waqt ka aham ishara faraham kar sakti hain, jo March 2020 mein COVID-19 pandemic ke shuru hone par 100 basis points ki cut ke saath hui thi.

Daily Time Frame Technical Nazariyah:

Halaanki haal mein kuch girawat aayi hai, lekin spot price 1.1100 ke psychologically significant level ke aas-paas support dhoondne ki umeed hai. Agar jora aur girta hai, toh yeh level gehri losses se bachao kar sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, pichle haftay ka high 1.1217 aur round-level resistance 1.1240 Euro bulls ke liye significant challenges bana rahe hain. Yeh key levels jore ke qareeb waqt ke direction tay karne mein aham kirdar ada karenge.




14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI):

EUR/USD ka 14-day RSI kam hota raha hai aur ab 50.00 par hai. Yeh market mein bullish momentum ki kami ko darust karta hai, jo darust karta hai ke jora apne haal ke high ko regain karne mein mushkilat ka samna karega. RSI ek widely used technical indicator hai jo price movements ki speed aur tabdeeli ko measure karta hai, aur is waqt ka level yeh darust karta hai ke currency pair consolidation ya kisi possible pullback ka samna kar sakta hai pehle kisi significant move se pehle.

EUR/USD

Is hafte, EUR/USD ke kharidaaron ko 1.1120 ka kafi mazboot sahara mila. Is liye, zyada tar kharidaaron ke stops is level ke peechay honge. Mera khayal hai ke agle hafte yeh stops nikaale jayenge, aur 1.1120 ka support level toota ja sakta hai. Breakout ke hawale se (ghalat ya sahi), humein dekhna hoga ke agla rukh kya hoga. Main reversal ke liye hai.

EUR/USD ke 4-ghante ke chart par humein ek upar ki taraf ka channel nazar aata hai, lekin yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke kharidaar 1.1200 ke resistance ko confidently toor nahi pa rahe aur channel ke upar ki sarhadi tak nahi pahunch rahe. Is liye, humein upar ki trend mein kami nazar aa rahi hai. Yeh bhi saaf hai ke neeche ki trend par active pressure hai aur bechne wale isay baar-baar toor rahe hain. Aise mein, bechne walon ke liye is trend ko todna mumkin hai.




Agle hafte, EUR/USD ke liye buniyad Monday ko ubharne shuru hogi jab Germany ke liye inflation figures faraham kiye jayenge, aur Tuesday ko poore Eurozone ke liye. Agar inflation France aur Spain ki tarah girta hai, to EUR/USD in data par kafi kamzor ho sakta hai. Bazaar ko umeed hai ke ECB December mein rate cut karega, lekin agar Eurozone ka inflation agle hafte 2% tak girta hai, to October mein rate cut ki umeedain barh jayengi. Aur haan, humare paas Friday ko ek aur nonfarm hai, aur is se pehle, Wednesday ko ADP se employment ka preliminary data aayega. Weekly chart par price consolidation hai, jo agle hafte ya to 1.1120 ke breakout ke sath khatam hoga, aur pair 1.0850 ke ilaqe ki taraf gir jayega, ya phir price 1.1230 ko toor kar EUR/USD ko 1.15 ki taraf le jayegi.

EUR/USD Price Movement

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price movement ka jaiza leinge. Maine is currency pair ka technical analysis daily chart par banaya hai, jo kaafi asan lagta hai samajhne mein. Humein kaafi zyada resistance ka saamna hai, jahan 1.200 ke figure se upar nikalne ki kayi koshishen nakam rahi hain. Lekin, market ne zyada neeche bhi nahi aaya, jo ek consolidation phase ko darshata hai. September khatam hone par, speculative traders ka interest aane wale Monday par barh sakta hai. Agar kuch fixed positions nazar aati hain, to is se volatility barh sakti hai aur iske saath sabhi consequences aa sakte hain. Agar ye correction waqai hoti hai, to yeh tez nahi hogi. Isliye, main aane wale hafte mein 1.0759–1.0724 range mein buy position lene ki ummeed nahi rakhta.




1-hour chart par, buying opportunities abhi maujood hain. Price 200 moving average se upar hai, jo bullish momentum ko darshata hai. Pichle din ki doosri part mein, pair din ke opening se upar trade hua aur upar band hua. Market quotes upper Bollinger band ke paas hain, jo potential upward trend continuation ka ishara hai. Main Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka istemal kar raha hoon jiska period 14 hai. Jab RSI overbought (69 se upar) ya oversold (29 se neeche) dikhata hai, to main trade mein nahi jaata. Filhal, RSI buy karne ke liye ek favorable level dikhata hai. Profit ke liye, maine Fibo take-profit target 211% par set kiya hai, jo price 1.1259 ke barabar hai. Agar zyada profit chahiye, to main agle Fibo targets ke hisaab se adjust karunga. Lekin, euro/USD pair upar jaane mein kuch hichkichahat dikhata hai, jo bearish correction ka ishara de raha hai 1.0759 tak.

EUR/USD exchange rate is is waqt takreeban 1.1142 par trade ho rahi hai, aur market abhi bearish trend dikha rahi hai. Yeh downtrend Euro ki kamzori ko U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein zahir karta hai, jo ke mukhtalif factors, jaise ke economic data, geopolitical events, aur market ke jazbaat se mutasir ho raha hai. Halanki, is waqt ka market halki aur ahista harkat kar raha hai, lekin yeh yaad rakhnay wali baat hai ke currency markets mein bade tabadlay aksar achanak ho jatay hain.
Kayi factors EUR/USD pair mein aanay walay dinon mein kisi barey tabadlay ka sabab ban saktay hain. Ek wajah yeh ho sakti hai ke market kisi aham economic reports ka intezaar kar rahi ho, jaise ke inflation data, GDP reports, ya central bank ke ilanat, khaaskar European Central Bank (ECB) ya U.S. Federal Reserve se. Agar monetary policy mein kisi tabadlay ka ishara milta hai, jaise ke interest rate mein izafa ya dovish stance, toh exchange rate mein tez harkat ho sakti hai.

Iske ilawa, geopolitical tensions, trade agreements, ya investor ke jazbaat mein tabadlay bhi EUR/USD pair ko mutasir kar saktay hain. Agar kisi barey global issue jaise ke energy prices ya trade relations mein taraqqi ya rukawat hoti hai, toh pair mein volatility barh sakti hai.

Maujooda bearish trend ke madde nazar, traders ehtiyat se kaam lete huay honge aur kisi wazeh ishara ka intezaar kar rahe honge pehlay bara position lene se pehlay. Lekin, agar koi bara waqia ya ilan market ko mutasir karta hai, toh hum dono janib mein tez harkat dekh saktay hain. Investors ko fundamental aur technical indicators par nazar rakhni chahiye taake wo samajh sakhain ke kab bara tabadla ho sakta hai. Currency market ke tezi se tabadlay aur kabhi kabhar na qabil-e-peshgoi hone walay tabadlay ke sabab, risk ko ehtiyaat se manage karna zaroori hai.

EUR/USD ka summary ab tak ye hai ke bears ke paas ab aane ka mauqa hai, lekin abhi tak koi significant bearish signals nazar nahi aaye. Daily chart ke mutabiq wave technique jo readings de rahi hain wo kuch is tarah hain MA100 ab tak ek bullish mood ko set kar raha hai, ye north ki taraf 15-degree ke trend angle ke sath pull kar raha hai. Iska matlab hai ke weekly sentiment ab tak bullish hai. MA18 bhi kuch waqt pehle tak north ki taraf bands ko drag kar raha tha. Lekin abhi wo thoda stable ho gaya hai aur horizontal direction mein chal raha hai. Ichimoku Cloud bhi abhi tak bullish colors mein dikh raha hai aur bullish momentum ko reflect kar raha hai. Forecast perspective ke mutabiq bhi ye apni intensity ko lose nahi kar raha aur bands ko upward pull kar raha hai. Abhi tak bears ke liye market mein koi entry ka signal nahi mil raha. Saare candles abhi tak bullish zone mein hain, jo moving averages aur Ichimoku Cloud ke upar hain, iska matlab hai ke bulls market ko control kar rahe hain.
Price ke decline ke liye intezar hai ke ye local MA100 ke neeche consolidate kare, jo ke 1.1110 ka level hai. Hourly chart pe, jab Federal Reserve ne apna bayan diya, aur price 1.10839 ke support tak gira, pair ne dobara growth resume karne ki koshish ki lekin growth nahi ho payi. Ek range bani jo previous maximums ke qareeb thi. Jab pair dobara grow karne ki koshish kar raha tha, buyer ne volume gain kiya jo indicate karta tha ke price upar jayegi, lekin buyer ke stops hit ho gaye aur price dobara neeche aana shuru kar diya. Ye range abhi tak upper boundaries ke qareeb trade ho raha hai.Seller volume lower boundaries ke qareeb gain kar raha hai, aur jab buyer ke limits trigger hoti hain, to price wapas upar chali jati hai. Mera khayal hai ke ab pair thoda aur upar jaayega 1.11575 ke level tak, jahan seller ke limits hain, aur phir decline shuru ho sakta hai. Mera estimate hai ke pair 1.10839 ke support tak neeche ja sakta hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

EUR/USD ka rate 1.1200 ke qareeb barh raha hai jabke Euro mein izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai, halankeh Eurozone ki ma'ashi growth ke baare mein pareshaniyan barh rahi hain. Umeed hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) is saal ke baqi do policy meetings mein se kisi ek mein shaid interest rates ko kam karega.

US Dollar ke liye agla bara trigger Friday ko August ka core PCE inflation data hoga. EUR/USD ne Wednesday ke European session mein apni upar ki taraf ke safar ko jaari rakha, jabke major currency pair tab barha jab US Dollar (USD) pressure mein aaya. Yeh is liye tha ke investors ka risk appetite behtar hua, jab China ne apni economy ko sambhalne ke liye massive stimulus plans ka elan kiya.

China ke is stimulus ke ilawa, Federal Reserve (Fed) ke November mein badi rate cut ki umeed bhi US Dollar ko peeche rakh rahi hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe major currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, Wednesday ko thoda barh gaya magar phir bhi 100.20 ke saal ke low ke qareeb hai.

CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke 50 basis points (bps) se interest rates kam karne ki umeed 60% tak barh gayi hai, jo pichle hafte 37% thi. Fed ne September 18 ko policy easing cycle shuru kiya, jab unhone 50 bps ka aik bada rate cut kiya, kyunki unhein labor demand ke girne ki pareshani thi.

Is hafte US Dollar ke liye major trigger US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data hoga, jo Friday ko publish hoga. Umeed hai ke underlying inflation measure 2.6% se barh kar 2.7% ho jayega.

Fed ke pasandida inflation measure se pehle, investors US Durable Goods Orders par bhi nazar rakhenge, jo Thursday ko publish honge. Umeed hai ke Durable Goods ke naye orders 2.6% tak gir jayenge, jabke pichle mahine yeh 9.8% ki behtari par the.

EUR/USD ne 1.1200 ke key resistance par barhne ka iraada rakha hai. Yeh major currency pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas strong buying interest dekhte hue tezi se recovery ki hai, jo 1.1100 par hai.

Agar yeh major currency pair Rising Channel chart pattern ke breakout ko banaye rakhti hai, to iska outlook mazboot rahega, khaaskar psychological support 1.1000 ke aas-paas.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 55.00 par hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke momentum kamzor ho raha hai.

Upar ki taraf, agar 1.1200 ka resistance decisively break hota hai, to yeh July 2023 ke high 1.1276 ki taraf aur izafa karega. Neeche ki taraf, 1.1000 ka psychological level aur July 17 ka high jo 1.0950 ke aas-paas hai, major support zones hain.

77 Collapse Annuu


Technical Analysis: EUR/USD


Peer ko, Euro ne North American trading mein halka sa rebound dekha jabke Asian session ke doran isne khaas nuqsan uthaya. 1.11 ka level short-term charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Tareekh ki roshni mein, EUR/USD aksar bade round numbers ke darmiyan harkat karta hai, isliye agar Euro mein kami jaari rahti hai, to agla logical target 1.10 ka level hoga.

1.10 ka mark pehle ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche chala gaya, to yeh ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ban sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hoti hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, yeh pair choppy aur sideways action ka shikar hai, isliye traders ko in key round numbers par dhyan dena chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur strong options market se asar انداز hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive bana deti hai. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) aur U.S. Federal Reserve dono monetary easing ke marahil se guzar rahe hain, jo market dynamics ko aur bhi pechida banata hai.

Is environment mein, Euro aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan ek saaf long-term winner tay karna mushkil hai. Isliye, ek zyada strategic approach yeh ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ka andaza lagaya jaye aur isay doosri currency pairs par lagoo kiya jaye. Misal ke tor par, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein taqatwar hota raha, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna behtar ho sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, yeh zyada munasib hoga ke isay short-term chart analysis ke liye dekha jaye, dekhte hue market ki volatility aur price level ke utar-chadhav.

Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad-e-nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjo deni chahiye. Yeh levels ahm support aur resistance points hain aur yeh short-term trading decisions mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions se barh jati hai. Jab ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures jaari rakhte hain, to yeh pair zyada volatility ka shikar hoga, jo short-term trades ko long-term positions se zyada faida mand banata hai. Traders ko hamesha ehtiyaat aur chust rehna chahiye, technical analysis par tawajjo dete hue is waqt ke market environment ko behtar taur par navigate karne ke liye

Peer ko, Euro ne North American trading mein halka sa rebound dekha jabke Asian session ke doran isne khaas nuqsan uthaya. 1.11 ka level short-term charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Tareekh ki roshni mein, EUR/USD aksar bade round numbers ke darmiyan harkat karta hai, isliye agar Euro mein kami jaari rahti hai, to agla logical target 1.10 ka level hoga.

1.10 ka mark pehle ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche chala gaya, to yeh ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ban sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hoti hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, yeh pair choppy aur sideways action ka shikar hai, isliye traders ko in key round numbers par dhyan dena chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur strong options market se asar انداز hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive bana deti hai. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) aur U.S. Federal Reserve dono monetary easing ke marahil se guzar rahe hain, jo market dynamics ko aur bhi pechida banata hai.

Is environment mein, Euro aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan ek saaf long-term winner tay karna mushkil hai. Isliye, ek zyada strategic approach yeh ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ka andaza lagaya jaye aur isay doosri currency pairs par lagoo kiya jaye. Misal ke tor par, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein taqatwar hota raha, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna behtar ho sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, yeh zyada munasib hoga ke isay short-term chart analysis ke liye dekha jaye, dekhte hue market ki volatility aur price level ke utar-chadhav.

Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad-e-nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjo deni chahiye. Yeh levels ahm support aur resistance points hain aur yeh short-term trading decisions mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions se barh jati hai. Jab ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures jaari rakhte hain, to yeh pair zyada volatility ka shikar hoga, jo short-term trades ko long-term positions se zyada faida mand banata hai. Traders ko hamesha ehtiyaat aur chust rehna chahiye, technical analysis par tawajjo dete hue is waqt ke market environment ko behtar taur par navigate karne ke liye.

EUR/USD ne 1.1125-1.1120 support zone se mukhtasir recovery ke baad apna downward trend dobara shuru kar diya hai, aur naye haftay ki shuruat ek sust performance ke sath ki hai. Iss waqt yeh pair 1.1160 area ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, aur zyadah tabadlon ke bagair apni jagah barqarar hai, kyunke investors German consumer inflation data aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke khitaab ka intezar kar rahe hain kisi naye impetus ke liye.

Technically, EUR/USD ek multi-day trading range mein phansa hua hai, jo ke 1.1000 psychological level se rebound ke context mein bullish consolidation phase ki tarah samjha ja sakta hai. Daily chart par positive oscillators bhi iss bullish outlook ko mazid mazbooti dete hain, jo yeh darsha rahe hain ke upward momentum sab se ziyada mumkin scenario hai. Magar, baar baar 1.1200 resistance level ke upar break karne mein nakami ne ek bearish double top pattern banaya hai, jo ke bullish traders ke liye ehtiyat ki zarurat hai.

Is liye yeh mashwara diya jata hai ke iss short-term trading range se ek sustainable breakout ka intezar karna behtar hai, taake EUR/USD ki aglay direction ka tasdeeq ho sake. Filhaal, 1.1200 level ek ahm rukawat ke tor par kaam karta rahega, jise 1.1215 area aur last Wednesday ka 14-month high follow karega. Agar yeh levels successfully break hotay hain, toh mazeed gains ka imkaan hai, jisme 1.1275 area (July 2023 ka high), 1.1300 barrier, 1.1335 area, aur akhir mein 1.1375 area aur 1.1400 level potential targets ho sakte hain.

Magar, broader economic landscape aur geopolitical factors ko madde nazar rakhna zaruri hai jo EUR/USD par asar daal sakte hain. European Central Bank (ECB) ke monetary policy decisions aur ongoing geopolitical tensions, jaise ke Ukraine ka jang aur trade disputes, bhi iss pair ki direction tay karne mein ahm kirdar ada kar sakte hain. ECB se tawaqo ki ja rahi hai ke wo apni aggressive monetary tightening jari rakhega inflation se larnay ke liye. Agar central bank tawaqo se zyadah interest rates raise karta hai, toh yeh euro ko dollar ke muqable mein mazboot kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar ECB ke rate hikes tawaqo se kam hotay hain ya Eurozone mein economic weakness ke asaar hote hain, toh euro kamzor ho sakta hai.

Kul mila kar, EUR/USD aglay kuch hafton mein volatile reh sakta hai jabke investors economic data, central bank decisions, aur geopolitical events ke asraat ka tajziya karenge. Jabke technical analysis ek potential downside break ki nishandahi karta hai, broader economic aur geopolitical landscape significant risks aur uncertainties introduce kar sakti hai. Traders ko yeh factors ghoor se dekhna chahiye aur apni positions ko accordingly adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna chahiye.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD


Peer ko, Euro ne North American trading mein halka sa rebound dekha jabke Asian session ke doran isne khaas nuqsan uthaya. 1.11 ka level short-term charts par mazboot support faraham kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahm psychological zone hai. Tareekh ki roshni mein, EUR/USD aksar bade round numbers ke darmiyan harkat karta hai, isliye agar Euro mein kami jaari rahti hai, to agla logical target 1.10 ka level hoga.

1.10 ka mark pehle ek ahm support area ke tor par kaam kar chuka hai, aur agar Euro is level ke neeche chala gaya, to yeh ek mazboot bottom banne ki nishani ban sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar market recover hoti hai, to 1.12 ka level resistance ke tor par kaam karega. Filhal, yeh pair choppy aur sideways action ka shikar hai, isliye traders ko in key round numbers par dhyan dena chahiye jab market inke darmiyan oscillate kar raha hai. Is pair ki technical nature, jo high liquidity aur strong options market se asar انداز hai, in levels ko khaas tor par sensitive bana deti hai. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) aur U.S. Federal Reserve dono monetary easing ke marahil se guzar rahe hain, jo market dynamics ko aur bhi pechida banata hai.

Is environment mein, Euro aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan ek saaf long-term winner tay karna mushkil hai. Isliye, ek zyada strategic approach yeh ho sakti hai ke U.S. dollar ki taqat ka andaza lagaya jaye aur isay doosri currency pairs par lagoo kiya jaye. Misal ke tor par, agar dollar Euro ke muqablay mein taqatwar hota raha, to dollar ko kisi tez chalne wali ya exotic currency ke khilaf trade karna behtar ho sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, yeh zyada munasib hoga ke isay short-term chart analysis ke liye dekha jaye, dekhte hue market ki volatility aur price level ke utar-chadhav.

Eurozone aur U.S. economies mein uncertainties ke mad-e-nazar, traders ko EUR/USD pair mein 1.10 aur 1.12 levels par khaas tawajjo deni chahiye. Yeh levels ahm support aur resistance points hain aur yeh short-term trading decisions mein madadgar sabit ho sakte hain. Market ki in key levels par sensitivity central bank policies aur global economic conditions se barh jati hai. Jab ECB aur Federal Reserve apne easing measures jaari rakhte hain, to yeh pair zyada volatility ka shikar hoga, jo short-term trades ko long-term positions se zyada faida mand banata hai. Traders ko hamesha ehtiyaat aur chust rehna chahiye, technical analysis par tawajjo dete hue is waqt ke market environment ko behtar taur par navigate karne ke liye.
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Yeh single European currency (euro) is waqt kuch dabao mein hai, jab yeh phir se 1.11 ke aas-paas aa raha hai. Market ka overall nazara kal ke din mein bilkul wahi raha, jab Fed ke president Jerome Powell aur ECB ki president Christine Lagarde ke speeches mein koi naya paigham nahi mila.

Do baar, central banks ke inflation par qaboo paane ki koshish par baatein hui, jo ke theek rahegi, lekin Fed aur ECB ke mustaqbil ke faislon ke baare mein koi naya khayal nahi aaya. European currency ko upar jane mein mushkilat ka samna hai, aur pichle saal ke high points, jo ke 1.1270 hain, abhi bhi ek badi challenge hain.

Halaanki Fed aur ECB ke agle meetings tak kaafi waqt hai, lekin aage ke interest rate cuts par jo bets hain, woh abhi bhi interest rates ko monopolize kar rahe hain aur exchange rate par asar daal rahe hain.

Jabke interest rate differential 50 basis points tak chhota ho gaya hai Fed ke aakhri cut ke baad, phir bhi yeh spread US currency ke haq mein hai. European economy ke baare mein jo chinta hai, woh is waqt euro ki upar uthane ki koshish mein ek badi rukawat ban rahi hai, jo ke 1.14 se 1.15 ke level tak pohanchne mein mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai. Mere khayal se yeh woh sthal hoga jahan tak euro 2024 ke aakhri tak pohanch sakta hai.

Jabke Fed apne rate-cutting cycle mein zyada aggressive nazar aa raha hai, tapering ka khatam hona yeh umeed hai ke US dollar ko European currency ke muqablay mein zyada interest rates offer karne mein madad dega.

Yeh gap chhota ho sakta hai, lekin phir bhi yeh US currency ko faida dega. Aaj ka din Eurozone ke inflation data ke liye kaafi dilchasp hai, jo ECB ke agle faisle par naye bets ko janam de sakta hai. Dusri taraf, Atlantic par ISM manufacturing index bhi khud ko dikhata hai.

Mera nazariya abhi tak wahi hai, mein pur sukoon hoon aur naye unchaai par US currency kharidne ki khwahish nahi chhod raha.

**Price Action Analysis: EUR/USD**

**BONUS UPDATE AVIZ SIR.**

Chaliye baat karte hain ke EUR/USD currency pair ki price kaise behave kar rahi hai aur is se kya analysis kiya ja sakta hai. EUR/USD pair ke liye, aapka target jo ke lagbhag 1.1374 hai, ye plausible lagta hai, khaaskar ye dekhte hue ke aise moves aksar broader fundamentals ke liye hote hain. Ye assess karna zaroori hai ke aane wale events kis tarah se prices ko itna uncha le ja sakte hain—shayad aane wale elections ismein kirdar ada kar sakte hain, jo humein bina kisi significant chart disruptions ya invalid candle patterns ke tak le ja sakta hai. Main is broader projection se aam taur par agree karta hoon, lekin yaad rahe ke chhote time frame, khaaskar weekly aur daily charts par, hum shayad 1.1065 ke neeche gir jayein, aur 1.1024 ke aas paas pahunch sakte hain. Is waqt, meri bias selling ki taraf hai, kyunki mujhe nahi lagta ke pair ko significantly upar le jane ke liye koi strong foundation maujood hai, lekin kabhi bhi kuch bhi kehna mushkil hai. Ye levels sirf approximate hain, lekin main technical analysis par focused hoon, bearish move ko pasand karte hue jab tak trading 1.1111–1.1120 range ke neeche rahe.

Preliminary data consumer confidence ke baare mein eurozone mein 14:00 GMT par release hoga. Is index ke -13.5 se thoda improve hone ki umeed hai, September mein -13 tak pahunchne ki. New York session ke doran, American investors Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ke President Patrick Harker ke speeches par tawajjo denge jo ke 18:00 par honge, taake interest rates ke baare mein naye guidance mil sake. North American session ke doran, euro ne 1.1150 ke upar rehne ki koshish ki. 20-day moving average (EMA) jo ke 1.1088 ke paas aa raha hai, currency pair ke liye final prospects optimistic rahte hain. Yeh mukhya currency mazboot hai, kyunki ye confidently daily frame par breakouts ko dobara test karne ke baad recover ho chuka hai (psychological support position 1.1000 ke aas paas). Relatively weak indicator (RSI) 60.00 ke upar chala gaya hai. Agar ye is level ke upar maintain hota hai, toh ye momentum ko barhata hai. Upar dekhte hue, integer resistance 1.1200 Euro Multi-Headed ke liye mukhya rukawat banega. Is level ka decisive break hone par asset ko July 2023 mein 1.1276 tak boost mil sakta hai. Aane wale gears mein, psychological price 1.1000 aur July 17 ka High Point mukhya support area banega.

Spot price thodi downward pressure ka shikar hai, aur yeh 1.1153 ka daily low touch karne ki taraf ja sakta hai. Magar, agar 1.1170 ka mark breach nahi hota, toh sustained break ke chances kam hain. Filhaal euro ki immediate outlook thodi cautious hai, jo ke Europe ki economic halat se judi concerns ko reflect karti hai.

EUR/USD pair ek significant shift ke qareeb hai, jab ECB apna interest rate decision announce karne wala hai. Pair 1.1180 ke critical level ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai, jo ek make-or-break point ke tara hai. 14 August ko Rising Channel formation se breakout ke baad, pair ne upward surge dekha. Lekin ab yeh channel ke upper boundary ki taraf retrace kar raha hai, jisse traders iske aglay move ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

**EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Bohat se European Central Bank (ECB) officials lagta hai ke additional interest rate cuts ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jo ke Eurozone ki economic growth ki concerns ki wajah se hai. ECB ke Executive Board member Piero Cipollone ne ek recent interview mein warning di ke agar rates ko adjust nahi kiya gaya, toh central bank ka stance overly restrictive ho sakta hai. Ek Reuters poll jo 30 August se 5 September ke darmiyan conduct ki gayi, usmein 85% economists ka kehna hai ke ECB aglay haftay rates cut karega, aur December mein ek aur reduction ka imkaan hai.

Federal Reserve bhi policy adjustments ki taraf ja raha hai. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank ke President Austan Goolsbee ne pichlay Friday ko indicate kiya ke Fed officials aur market expectations ke darmiyan ek agreement banta ja raha hai, jisme ek rate cut ka imkaan hai. CNBC ke mutabiq, yeh shift economic indicators aur evolving market conditions ka reaction hai. FXStreet’s FedTracker ne Goolsbee ke comments ko dovish rate kiya, jisse 3.2 out of 10 ka score diya gaya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Monday ke North American session mein price pressure mein rahi, jo ke 1.1180 ke critical resistance level se neeche trade kar rahi thi. Pair key 1.1210 mark ke upar momentum sustain karne mein kamiyab nahi hua, jo near-term outlook ko aur complicate karta hai. Iske ilawa, pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kiya, jo filhaal 1.1119 ke aas-paas hai, jo euro bulls ke liye mazeed challenges paida kar raha hai.

US ki na ummeedkan economic data ne euro ko US dollar ke muqablay mein barhawa diya. Ye tabdeeli American economy ke health ke bare mein barhti hui chinta ko darshati hai aur Federal Reserve ke zariye interest rate cuts ke tajawiz ko tez karne ke mumkinahay ko uthaati hai. Key indicators ne ek chinta janak tasawwur diya hai. June mein naukri ka izafa ummeed se kam raha, ADP data ne ye bataya ke naukriyon ki kami zyada tar kam aay ke sectors jaise hospitality aur entertainment mein hui. Initial jobless claims bhi barh gayi, aur ISM ka Services PMI do saal ke sabse niche star par chala gaya. Ye data US economy ke slow hone ka nishan hai, jo dollar ki appeal ko kam karta hai. Jab US dollar ne girawat dekhi, euro ne is mauqe ko pakda aur briefly 1.0800 level ko paar kar gaya. Ye positive jazba mixed European data se barhawa mila. Pan-EU HCOB PMI for June ne ummeed se zyada izafa dikhaya, jo manufacturing activity ki growth ko darshata hai. Lekin, Eurozone mein producer prices May mein zyada contraction dekhne ko mili. Agle kuch dinon mein US Independence Day holiday aur German factory order data currency pair ko prabhavit kar sakti hai. US markets band rahengi, jo trading activity ko patla kar sakti hai. German factory orders May mein rebound hone ki ummeed hai, jo euro ke performance ko aur prabhavit kar sakta hai.

Technical hurdles aur aage ke gains ki potential. Euro ko 1.0788 level aur 200-day moving average par technical resistance ka samna hai. Is zone ke upar decisive break hone se October 2023 ke uptrend line ke 1.0955 tak ki tez chadhai ki raah khul sakti hai. In conclusion, euro kai factors ka faida utha raha hai: US dollar ki kamzori, jo ke slowing US economy aur Fed se accommodative monetary policy ke tajawiz se hai. Lekin, technical resistance levels aur dono US aur Europe mein aane wale economic releases crucial honge, ye dekhne ke liye ke euro ke gains sustain ho sakte hain ya nahi.