𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

**GBP/USD Ka Technical Analysis**

British pound ne US dollar ke muqablay mein do saal ki bulandee haasil kar li hai, global stock markets mein nayi rally ke baad. Ek market expert ke mutabiq, agar koi kamzori aati hai to yeh zyada buying interest ko bulayegi. Reliable trading platforms ke mutabiq, GBP/USD pair 1.3265 resistance level tak pohnch gaya hai, jo do saal ka sab se zyada hai. Yeh izafa European stock markets ki behtareen performance aur traders ke darmiyan US aur Britain ke divergent monetary policy ke chalte hua hai.

General taur par, US stock markets din ki shuruat mein kam nazar aa rahe hain, lekin German aur British markets recover kar rahe hain aur har ek lagbhag aathah pratishat (0.5%) ke aas-paas badh rahe hain, jo ke European assets ki demand ko darshata hai aur pound ko madad karta hai. JPMorgan ke forex trading desk se aayi ek note mein kaha gaya: “Sab shakoon ke bawajood, sterling ek rock star ki tarah trade kar raha hai jaise hum 1.3145 ke triple top se nikal rahe hain Jerome Powell ke comments ke baad.”

GBP/USD pair ne Friday ko surge kiya jab Powell ne September mein US interest rates cut karne ka clear intention dikhaya, jisse financial markets hairaan reh gayi thi. Pehle, Fed ne kaha tha ki woh US interest rate cuts pe dhire-dhire chalegi, lekin Powell ke speech ne ek “pause” ka signal diya.

Asal mein, financial markets ne dekh liya tha ke Fed shayad easing cycle ko 50bp ke bade hike ke saath shuru karega, jo unki speech se pehle ek unlikely scenario tha. Iska natija US dollar ke sell-off mein hua jo Tuesday tak extend hua aur GBP/USD ko naye 2024 high 1.3260 tak le gaya.

GBP/USD ke liye upar ki taraf zyada space nahi hai, sirf ek minor pivot 1.3275/00 ke around hai, aur hum yahan GBP mein meaningful reinvestment karne mein pareshani ka samna kar rahe hain. Agle sessions mein 1.3145 pivot ke paas jo bhi dips aati hain, unhe buy karna chahiye.

Sterling ko Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey ke Friday ke speech se bhi support mila, jisme unhone kaha ke inflation ke khilaf ladayi khatam kehna abhi jaldi hai, aur yeh suggest kiya ke bank dobara interest rates cut karne mein jaldi nahi karega. Analysts kehte hain ke Bailey inflation ko lekar relatively relaxed nazar aate hain aur humne BRC mein pehli baar teen saalon mein girawat dekhi hai, lekin girti hui prices currency ke liye ek boon ki tarah dekhi ja rahi hain.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) ne kaha ke unka store price changes ka measure dikhata hai ke prices August mein 0.3% gir gayi, jo July ke +0.2% se kam hai. Yeh teen mahine ke average 0.0% se neeche hai, aur shop prices ki annual growth October 2021 se sabse kam rate par hai. UK mein inflation 2023 se gir raha hai, lekin iska matlab hai ke increase ki pace sirf dheemi hui hai. Seedha price declines shoppers ko comfort deti hain kyunki goods ki absolute level jo extraordinary inflation ke dauran badhi thi, ab gir rahi hai aur purchasing power ko boost karti hai.Daily chart ke performance ke madde nazar, GBP/USD price ka general trend bullish nazar aa raha hai. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke aaj ke US economic data ke results ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye, kyunki yeh US dollar ke zyada kamzori ya izafa ke jazbaat ko affect kar sakte hain. Agar economic data kamzor aata hai, to GBP/USD currency pair ko niche ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jiske liye 1.3045 ke support level ke neeche break hona zaroori hai.

GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis: Aaj Ki Situation Aur Future Predictions GBP/USD currency pair ne recently kuch noteworthy behavior dikhaya hai, khaaskar hourly chart par, jahan isne ek important technical landscape ko navigate kiya hai. Pair ne 50-day moving average (MA50) ke downward pressure ko break karna ek significant achievement thi, jo market mein kuch bullish momentum ka indication deti hai. Lekin, ab pair ko ek naya challenge face karna hai: 100-day moving average (MA100) se potential resistance, jo short-term mein further upward movement ke liye ek critical barrier ban sakta hai. Technical Analysis


MA50 ke upar breakout GBP/USD bulls ke liye ek positive sign tha, jo yeh darshata hai ke pair mein itni strength hai ke wo higher resistance levels ko challenge kar sakti hai. Stochastic oscillator, jo ek momentum indicator hai, ab upar ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai aur suggest karta hai ke pair short-term mein upar push kar sakti hai. Yeh upward momentum buying interest ko reflect karta hai, kam se kam tab tak ke pair significant resistance se takraati hai.

Lekin, MA100 jo ke current trading levels ke upar hai, ek formidable resistance point banne ke liye tayar hai. Historically, MA100 ek critical level raha hai medium-term trends determine karne ke liye, aksar bullish aur bearish sentiment ke beech mein ek pivot ki tarah kaam karta hai. Agar GBP/USD MA100 ko sustain kar ke break kar leti hai, to yeh further gains ke liye raasta khol sakta hai, jo ke 1.2850 aur 1.2900 levels tak extend ho sakti hai. Wahi, agar pair is resistance ko break nahi karti, to yeh MA50 ki taraf reversal ko lead kar sakta hai ya phir niche ja sakta hai, jab traders apne positions ko reassess karenge.

Potential Scenarios

Agar GBP/USD MA100 ko successfully breach kar leti hai, to agle resistance levels 1.2850 aur 1.2900 ke aas-paas honge. Yeh levels previous highs ke sath coincide karte hain aur buyers aur sellers dono ka significant attention attract karenge. In levels ke upar sustained move ek prolonged bullish phase ko signal kar sakta hai, jo shayad 1.3000 psychological barrier ki taraf extend ho sakta hai.

Flip side par, agar pair MA100 par reject ho jati hai, to hume MA50 ki taraf ek pullback dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo ke 1.2700 ke aas-paas hoga. Is scenario mein pair consolidation phase mein enter kar sakti hai, traders naye positions lene se pehle economic data ya geopolitical developments se further cues ka wait karenge

Pound Sterling ne apne intraday gains chhod diye aur US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3200 ke key support ke qareeb pohnch gaya hai, Thursday ke London session mein. GBP/USD pair wapas gir gaya jab US Dollar ne Wednesday ke recovery move ko barhawa diya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhay bade currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb barh gaya hai.

Magar, Greenback ko apne recent rebound ko barqarar rakhna mushkil ho sakta hai kyunki Federal Reserve ka September ke meeting mein interest rates ko kam karna almost pakka hai. Jabke traders is baat ko lekar divided hain ke Fed policy-easing ki shuruat 25 ya 50 basis points (bps) ke cut se karega, rate reduction puri tarah se priced in hai.

**Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb acha support pa raha hai**

Pound Sterling ne dubara se 1.3200 ke qareeb apna immediate support barqarar rakha hai. GBP/USD pair ki near-term appeal mazboot hai, kyunki yeh weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ke breakout ko pakray hue hai. Agar bullish momentum wapas aata hai, to Cable ki ummeed hai ke iska upside 1.3500 ke psychological resistance aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.2640 tak extend ho sakta hai, jab yeh naye tow and a half year high 1.3266 ko break karega. Upwards sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average jo 1.3000 ke qareeb hai, ek strong upside trend ko suggest karta hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, RSI ne 70.00 ke qareeb overbought levels tak pohnch gaya hai, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barhata hai. Downside par, psychological level 1.3000 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support banega.

Pound Sterling ne apne intraday gains ko chhod diya aur US Dollar ke muqablay mein Thursday ki London session mein 1.3200 ke kareeb key support par wapas aa gaya. GBP/USD pair niche girta hai jab US Dollar apne Wednesday ke recovery move ko aage barhata hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke value ko chhe badi currencies ke against track karta hai, aage barhkar kareeb 101.30 ke paas pahunch gaya hai.

Lekin, Greenback ko apni recent rebound ko hold karne mein mushkil ka samna ho sakta hai, kyun ke Federal Reserve lagbhag yaqeenan September meeting se interest rates kam karna shuru karega. Jabke traders is baat par divide hain ke Fed apni policy-easing ko 25 ya 50 basis points (bps) cut ke sath shuru karega, rate reduction puri tarah se priced in hai.

**Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling abhi bhi 1.3200 ke paas support par majboot hai**

Pound Sterling ne phir se apne immediate support 1.3200 ko US Dollar ke muqablay mein hold kar liya hai. GBP/USD pair ka near-term appeal ab bhi mazboot hai jabke ye weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ka breakout pakarta hai. Agar bullish momentum dobara shuru hota hai, toh Cable apni upside ko 1.3500 ke psychological resistance aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.2640 tak extend kar sakta hai, jab wo US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3266 ke fresh two and a half year high se upar break karta hai.

Upwards sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average kareeb 1.3000 strong upside trend ka ishara de raha hai. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range mein 60.00-80.00 par oscillate karta hai, jo strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Phir bhi, ye ab overbought levels kareeb 70.00 par pohonch gaya hai, jo ek corrective pullback ke chances ko barhata hai. Downside par, 1.3000 ka psychological level Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support hoga.

Budh ke din, currency pair ne aham 1.3100 level ke upar settle kiya, kyunke Greenback ki short pressures mein kami aayi. Hafte ke shuru mein ek tezi se rally ke baad, sarmaayakaaron ne wahan ruk kar dam liya, aur market sentiment Federal Reserve (Fed) ke rate cut ki umeed se behtar ho gaya. Is qadam ki tawakkuat ne market par khaasa asar dala hai, aur ab kai log yeh paishgoi kar rahe hain ke September mein Fed apna rate-cutting cycle shuru karega.

Aage dekhte hue, market ke hissa-daaron ko geo-siyasi taraqiyaat aur Fed policy ke ishaaron ko gaur se dekhna chahiye. Yeh anasir ke darmiyan tale-mel mumkin hai ke GBP/USD ki tehreek ko chalaata rahe. Haalati soorat-e-haal mazeed fayede ki salahiyat dikhati hai, lekin badalte huye halaat naye asraat bhi laa sakte hain jinhe dekhne ki zaroorat hogi.

US-UK Policy Mein Tafreeq Aur Geo-Siyasi Fikar Mandiyan:

US Initial Jobless Claims data, jo ke ek dheelay labor market ki taraf ishara karta hai, ne in umeedon ko mazbooti di hai. Iske saath milkar kam hoti hui mehengayi ne Fed ke liye qarz ki lagat kam karne ka ek mauzo backdrop tayyar kiya hai. Iske baraks, Bank of England (BoE) ko rate cut ke hawalay se kam hoti hui umeedon ka saamna hai, khaaskar ek ziyada than-expected UK CPI print ke baad. Yeh monetary policy tawakkuat mein tafreeq jo ke US aur UK ke darmiyan hai, iss waqt ki market dynamics ko shaakal de rahi hai.

Geo-siyasi tensions, jin mein US aur China ke darmiyan ek nayi tijarati jang ke mumkinat bhi shamil hain, ne sarmaayakaaron ke riskier assets ke liye bhook ko kam kar diya hai. Yeh be-yaqeeni ne US equities mein girawat aur iske baad Asian markets mein bhi nuqsan ko janam diya. Natijatan, safe-haven US dollar majboot hua, jo ke lag bhag char mahine ke kam tareen level se ubhar raha hai aur GBP/USD pair par dabao daal raha hai.

GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:

Iske bawajood, dovish Fed ki tawakkuat mumkin hai ke USD bulls ke joshe junoon ko thanda kare, aur pair ke liye kuch support paida kare. Haalati soorat-e-haal mein, pair ke liye pehli aham support level peak-turned support 1.3111 par hai, jis ke baad 1.3141 aata hai. Agar yeh levels toot gaye, toh agla mumkin resistance point 1.3171 hoga. Agar pair 1.3200 se ooper nikalta hai, toh salana peak 1.3244 agla target ban jaata hai, aur mazbooti mazeed barh kar 1.3272 tak pohanch sakti hai.




Buyers ne kamyabi se pair ko 1.3100 level ke ooper defend kiya hai. Lekin agar sellers musalsal pair ko is level se neeche dhakelne mein kaamyab ho jate hain aur 1.3100 ke neeche daily close secure kar lete hain, toh aham support levels maaniyat haasil karenge. Relative Strength Index ne overbought territory se bahar nikal kar bhi abhi bhi ek bullish bias dikhaya hai, jis se yeh ishara milta hai ke momentum buyers ke haq mein hai.

Mazboot UK iqtisadi ashariyaat aur narmi hotay hue job market ke bawajood, jore ne apne haal hi ke downtrend ko DXY ke muqablay mein juma ko ulat diya. Barhte hue U.S. Treasury yields aur mazboot hotay hue Greenback ne pair ke exchange rate ko 1.3120 ke upar dhakel diya, jisse 1.20% se zyada ka faida hua.

Fed Rate Cut Ki Jawayz Mein Izafa Disinflation Ki Wapsi Ke Darmiyan:

Federal Reserve ke mumkin rate cuts ki jawaz mein mazeed izafa recent data ke zariye hua, jis mein June ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) report bhi shamil hai. Is report se yeh maloom hua ke disinflation, jo saal ke aaghaz mein ruk gaya tha, dobara shuru ho gaya hai. Har saal ke headline CPI aur core CPI, jo khorak aur energy ki qeematon ko shamil nahi karta, dono hi tawakkuat se zyada dheere ho gaye hain.

Inflationary dabaoon mein kami ne Fed ke afsaraan ka itminaan mazboot kiya hai ke mehengai markazi bank ke 2% target ki taraf barh rahi hai. Richmond Fed ke President Thomas Barkin ne disinflation ke faile hone par hosla-afzai ka izhar kiya, aur yeh paishgoi ki ke policymaker agle July meeting mein yeh behas karenge ke aaya mehengai ko ab bhi buland kaha jaye ya nahi, Reuters ke mutabiq.

H1 Chart GBP/USD Do Saal Ki Buland Tarin Had Ko Chhuti, Bullish Trend Jari:

Pair ke faide US Dollar ke muqablay mein lagbhag 1.3150 tak pahunch gaye, jise UK ki wage growth mein mustaqil girawat ne bhi asar kiya. Yeh pair ab ek naye do saal ki buland tarin had 1.3154 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo aaj subah haasil hui thi. Kul mila kar trend bullish nazar aata hai, jahan sab short- se long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) upward momentum dikha rahe hain.

Pair se tawaqqa hai ke woh apni upward trajectory ko do saal ki buland tarin had 1.3154 ki taraf barhaye, jo subah ke Asian session ke dauraan haasil hui thi. Agar UK data ke baad pair par selling pressure aata hai, toh March 8 ka high, jo lagbhag 1.2900 ke qareeb hai, Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ek aham support level ka kaam karega.





Iske ilawa, 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70.00 ke qareeb pahunch gaya hai, jo ek saal mein pehli dafa hua hai, aur yeh mazboot bullish momentum ki taraf ishara karta hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke agar haalati trends jari rahe, toh GBP/USD pair apni choti ki taraf safar jari rakh sakta hai.

Juma ke European trading session mein, currency pair ne apne mazeed counterparts ke muqablay mein khaasa zor dikhaya. UK ke Average Earnings data ke jari hone ke baad pair ne girawat ka samna kiya. Yeh aham metric, jo ke wage growth ko zahir karta hai aur service sector ki inflation mein aham kirdar ada karta hai, tawakku ke mutabiq dheema ho gaya. Yeh slow down Bank of England (BoE) ki confidence ko interest rate cuts karne mein mushkilat paida karta hai. Update ke waqt, GBP/USD pair lagbhag 1.3121 level par trade kar raha tha.

GBP/USD ke Buniyadi Anasir:

Rate markets poori tarah se September 18 ko Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki meeting mein kam az kam ek quarter-point reduction ki tawakku kar rahe hain. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq is mahine rate cut ki imkaaniyat 98% hai, aur traders 2024 mein teen rate cuts ki paishgoi kar rahe hain. Yeh Federal Reserve ke mohtadil projection, jo ek ya do cuts ka zikr karta hai, se bilkul mutazaad hai, jo ke tawakkuat mein tafreeq ko ujagar karta hai.

Market ke Fed rate cuts ki janib zyada rujhan ke bawajood, Federal Reserve ke chand aham policymakeron ke taja taziyati byan ne ehtiati note introduce kiya hai. Fed Governor Christopher Waller aur Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin dono ne yeh nishandahi ki hai ke labor markets ab bhi mazboot hain, chaahe inflation ke dabaoon mein kami hui ho. Yeh tabsira mustaqbil ki monetary policy ke liye ehtiati rawaiye ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Haal hi ki trading mein, pair ne 1.3100 level ko paar kiya aur lagbhag 1.3135 ke aas paas ka high haasil kiya. Yahan tak ke pair ka outlook positive nazar aata hai, lekin market ki haalat abhi overbought hai. Is se yeh shakk paida hota hai ke pound qareebi muddat mein 1.3200 mark ko haasil kar payega. Agar 1.3040 level, jo pehle ek mazboot support zone tha, se neeche ek khaasa girawat hota hai, toh yeh pound ke upward momentum mein rukawat ka signal hoga.




Momentum Analysis:

Momentum analysis se yeh pata chalta hai ke buyers ne GBP/USD ki girawat ko had tak mehdood kar diya hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur MACD indicators dono bullish territory mein hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke jab ke pound ko support mila hua hai, market ke hissa-daar abhi tak yeh faisla nahi kar paaye hain ke currency ko mazeed ooper dhakelna hai ya usay ek gehri correction se guzarne dena hai.

Hello, kya haal hain? GBP/USD ne juma ke European session mein halka sa gain dikhaya hai aur 1.3100 ke upar trade kar raha hai. Dovish Fed ki umeedon ne US dollar par dabao daalna jari rakha hai, kyunke traders apna tawajjo Jackson Hole Symposium mein Fed Chair Powell aur BoE Governor Bailey ke speeches par markooz kar rahe hain. 1.2900 (aakhri downtrend ke Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) fauran resistance ke tor par aligned hai, iske baad 1.2950 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) aur 1.3000 (nafsiati level, static level) aata hai. Neeche ki taraf, pehli support 1.2850-1.2840 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) par hai, jiske baad 1.2800 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) aur 1.367% Fibonacci hai. USD ne apna bullish momentum barqarar rakha aur juma ke European session mein 1.2900 ke zara neeche teen hafton ke buland tareen level par trade kiya. High-impact data releases ki adam mojoodgi mein, risk perception din ke doosre hissa mein pair ke action ko asar andaz kar sakti hai.




Juma ko, US data ne dikhaya ke weekly initial jobless claims mein 7,000 ki kami hui hai, jo 227,000 par aagai hain. Iske ilawa, retail sales July mein 1% barh gayi, jo market ki tawajjo se 0.3% zyada thi. Positive data release ne USD ko mazbooti di aur GBP/USD ko 1.2800 ki taraf neeche dhakel diya. Lekin jab Wall Street ke khulne ke baad risk flow ne maali bazaaron mein ghul mil gaya, toh GBP/USD ne dobara traction haasil kiya aur din ko positive territory mein band kiya. August ke liye University of Michigan ka preliminary index of consumer sentiment bhi jari hua. Sarmaayakaar mumkin hai ke in numbers ko nazarandaz karte hue risk perception par tawajjo dein. Press time par, US stock index futures mein 0.15% se 0.3% tak izafa ho raha tha. Wall Street par ek bullish shuruaat USD ko nuqsan pohancha sakti hai aur GBP/USD ko mazeed barhne ka mauka de sakti hai. Yeh bhi note karna chahiye ke weekend ke market ka taaluq kamzor ho sakta hai munafa wasooli aur weekend flows ke sabab se.

Kal GBP/USD ke hawale se, jab price ne local resistance level ko neeche se upar ki taraf test kiya, jo ke meri analysis ke mutabiq 1.27025 par located hai, to price ne yaqini tor par reversal kiya aur neeche ki taraf move ki, jisse ek clear bearish reversal candlestick bani. Mojooda signals ko dekhte huay, mujhe poora yaqeen hai ke aaj bearish movement jaari rahegi. Is case mein, main apni tawajju support level par rakhne ka irada rakhta hoon, jo ke meri analysis ke mutabiq 1.25694 par located hai.
Is support level ke qareeb do scenarios unfold ho sakte hain. Pehla scenario yeh hai ke ek reversal candlestick form ho aur price ka upward movement phir se shuru ho jaye. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main price ka intizar karoon ga ke yeh wapas 1.27025 ke resistance level ya 1.27399 ke resistance level par aaye. Jab price in resistance levels ke upar close karegi, to main northward movement ka intizar karoon ga, jo ke 1.28604 ke resistance level ya 1.28938 ke resistance level tak ja sakti hai. Is resistance level ke qareeb, main trading setup ke formation ka intizar karoon ga taake agla trading direction tay karoon. Yaqeenan, mujhe yeh bhi maaloom hai ke price aur zyada north ki taraf push ho sakti hai towards resistance level 1.29956, lekin yeh situation par depend karega aur yeh ke price designated higher northern targets par kis tarah react karti hai.

Dusra scenario jab price support level 1.25694 par test karegi, to yeh ho sakta hai ke price is level ke neeche consolidate kare aur south ki taraf move kare. Agar yeh plan execute hota hai, to main expect karoon ga ke price support level 1.24661 ya support level 1.24506 ki taraf move kare. In support levels ke qareeb, main bullish signals ki talash mein rahoon ga, umeed karte huay ke upward price movement phir se shuru ho jaye

GBP/USD Pair Analysis

H4 Period Chart: Kal ke trading session mein GBP/USD currency pair ne apni growth jari rakhi aur ek martaba phir se maximum ko update kiya, lekin sirf pound ke muqablay mein hi nahi, balki ameriki dollar bhi hafta ke aaghaz se hi kamzor hota gaya aur pore hafte bazaar mein girawat mein raha. Yeh bilkul khameer ki tarah barh raha tha, lekin is senior H4 period mein nishaniyan hain ke yahan se ek downward correction shuru ho sakta hai.

Pehli baat toh yeh hai ke agar aap pehli wave par target Fibonacci grid lagate hain, toh aap dekh sakte hain ke target kaam kar gaya hai — is grid par level 161.8 aur level 200, dusra target bhi kaam kar gaya hai — jo ke guzishta July ke maximum se aage nikal gaya hai. Iske alawa, agar aap senior period ki pehli aur teesri waves ko naapte hain (jo peelay rang mein nishan-zada hain), toh yeh takriban barabar size ki hain, hatta ke teesri wave bari hai. Yeh ek mukammal cycle hai jiske baad ya toh chauthi wave ki taraf ek correction aata hai ya phir puri tarah se reversal hota hai.

Yahan istemal kiya gaya CCI indicator bhi triple bearish divergence dikha raha hai — jo ke ek sell signal hai. Yehi indicator purane daily chart par bhi upar ke overheating zone se neeche jaane ka ishara kar raha hai. Yeh bhi dekhne ke layak hai ke growth ke dauran, qeemat 1.3134 ke resistance level tak pahunch gayi hai, yeh ek haftawaar mazboot level hai, guzishta saal July ka maximum. Zaroori hai ke chauthi wave ke liye ek correction kiya jaye, uske baad qeemat ko mazeed ooper dhakela ja sakta hai aur ek reversal bhi ho sakta hai.

Filhaal, 1.3078 ka support level raaste mein hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yeh zyada dair nahi tik payega. Girawat ke targets 1.3036 ka support level aur do wave bottoms par bani hui ascending line hain. 1.3036 ke level se upar ki taraf rebound ki tawaqqo hai, phir ek breakout aur ascending line tak pohanchna hai. Aisi ek correction mere liye minimal lagti hai, shayad qeemat ko mazeed neeche dhakela jaye, dekhenge ke yeh kahan jati hai.




Aaj ki khabron mein yeh cheezen dekhne ke layak hain: 15:30 Moscow time par - USA mein jari ki gayi building permits ki tadad. 17:00 par - USA mein naye gharon ki sales, aur US Federal Reserve System ke head Jerome Powell ka speech.

GBP/USD Cell

GBP/USD sterling is session mein comparatively behtar perform kar raha hai, ab tak USD ke muqablay mein 0.4% ka gain dikhate hue Cable ko wapas 1.2955 ke level ke upar le gaya hai. Teeno din ki winning streak khatam hui jab GBP/USD Tuesday ki subah European trading ke dauran lagbhag 1.2980 tak gir gaya. Important currency pairs mein girawat dekhi gayi jab US dollar ne thodi si recovery ki. Is haftay ke aakhir mein, USD exchange rate ke dynamics GBP/USD ke liye primary driver honge, kyun ke UK ke kisi bhi high-quality records ke zahir hone ki ummeed nahi hai. Federal Reserve ke chairman Jerome Powell Friday ko tawajjo ka markaz honge. Lekin, Fed ke dovish posture ke madde nazar, dollar ki upside potential mehdoood ho sakti hai. Minneapolis Federal Reserve ke President Neel Kashkari ne Monday ko kaha ke agar mazdoor bazaar ki kamzori ke sabab mauqe milte hain, toh woh September mein US activities ke liye kharchon ko kam karne par ghour karne ke liye tayar honge.




GBP/USD Pair ki Taja Tareen Surat-e-Haal:

GBP/USD pair ne pichle haftay ke breakout se upar ki taraf apna rujhan barqarar rakha aur Monday ko Asian session ke dauran ek mahine ki bulandiyon ko chhua. Bullish traders ke liye yeh taqatwar taraqqi — jo ke theoretically significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ke recent high rise se thodi neeche aayi hai — ek ummeed ki kiran ki tarah dekhi jani chahiye. GBP/USD pair ke pichle high 1.2940 ko kisi bhi haqeeqi girawat ke liye support level ki tarah kaam karne ka imkaan hai. Koi aur level jahan tak yeh pair gir sakta hai, woh 1.2900 ka spherical value hai. Price movement November 2023 se 1.2300 aur 1.3042 ke range mein phansa hua hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke medium-aur long-term trends abhi bhi na waazeh hain aur zyada "sideways" hain bajaye directional ke. Ek positive rising consolidation trend ke sath, GBP/USD pair mazeed favorable qualities ko 1.2950/1.3025 ke level ke aas paas target kar raha hai aur 1.2955 level ke through naye, temporary highs ko hit kar raha hai.

GBP/USD Pair Ki Taja Tareen Surat-e-Haal:

Thursday ko GBP/USD pair mein ek chhoti si girawat dekhi gayi, lekin yeh drop charts par mushkil se hi nazar aayi. Guzishta din bhi usi silsile ka hissa tha jahan British pound zyada bhi correct nahi kar saka aur dollar ko koi faida nahi mila. Upward trend abhi bhi mazboot hai aur ismein koi shak nahi. Kal UK ne services aur manufacturing sectors ke liye business activity indices jari kiye, jo market forecasts se zyada behtar aaye. Kya yeh GBP/USD pair ko dobara kharidne ka mauqa nahi?

Doosri taraf, US ke business activity indices mixed aaye: manufacturing data ummed se kamzor raha jab ke services data mazboot tha. Is tarah market ke paas US dollar kharidne se bachne ka ek aur sabab tha. Filhaal, pair technical grounds par bhi neeche correct nahi ho pa raha. Agar aaj Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell dovish comments dete hain, toh US dollar mazeed gir sakta hai. Thursday ke 5-minute time frame mein movement mein chaos dekha gaya. Naye growth ka koi catalyst nahi tha, aur market participants filhaal pair bechne ke liye tayari nahi. Is liye, din bhar mein idhar udhar ki harkatain dekhi gayi jo ek aam flat ka ehsaas dilati hain. Pehle din ke 1.3102-1.3107 area se achi bounce ke bawajood, price ne technical levels ko nazar andaz kar diya.

Friday Ko Trading Kaisay Karen:

Hourly time frame mein GBP/USD ke paas global downtrend ko continue karne ka achi chance hai, lekin filhaal ek local uptrend chal raha hai. British pound abhi bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har mauqe ka faida uthate hue British currency kharid raha hai aur dollar bech raha hai. Yeh aksar unfavorable reports ko bhi nazar andaz karta hai. Kabhi kabhi US se aane wali positive reports se sirf chhoti moti downward corrections hoti hain, aur yeh bhi hamesha nahi hota.

Friday ko pair mein thodi si girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai, lekin uptrend ka tootna mushkil hai. Shaam mein, volatility mein izafa aur kisi bhi direction mein movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke Powell Jackson Hole symposium mein kya kehne wale hain.





5M timeframe par jo key levels dekhne wale hain woh hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145, aur 1.3210. Friday ko Andrew Bailey aur Powell Jackson Hole symposium mein khitaab karenge. Yeh dono events market mein significant reaction ka sabab ban sakte hain.

Jumeraat ki European session mein, GBP/USD ka jo jor hai, wo takreeban 1.3121 tak barh gaya hai US Dollar ke muqablay mein. Is halki si izafa ke bawajood, jo jor hai, usay traction hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna karna par raha hai, jo British currency par chal rahe bechne ke pressure ko reflect karta hai. Is darmiyan, DXY, jo ke Greenback ke qeemat ko chhay bade currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai, wo 0.2% barh kar 101.70 par pohnch gaya hai, jo ek majboot USD ko darshata hai.

Bazaar ke Reactions: Fed ka Rate Hold aur BoE ka Intikhaab

Jab Federal Reserve (Fed) ne July ke liye apne mojooda rate ko barqarar rakha, to jor ek tang range mein trade hota raha. September mein rate cut ki ummeed ab poori tarah se price mein aa chuki hai, jab ke key economic data abhi tak release nahi hua. Bank of England (BoE) ke bhi pehli dafa rate cut ka elan karne ki ummeed hai jo ke March 2020 ke baad pehli dafa hoga. Lekin BoE ke Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) mein vote mukhtalif hone ke umeed hai, jahan 5-to-4 ke taqreeban result hone ki ummeed hai.

Jab Asian session mein Jumeraat ko, jo jor pichle din ke post-FOMC izafe ko barhane mein pareshani ka samna kar raha tha aur ek tang trading band mein raha. Spot prices 1.3140 ke beech ghoom rahe the, aur traders BoE ke policy update ka intezar kar rahe the. Yeh be-indazami market mein ghalat ki ek misaal hai jahan log sideline par hain.

GBP/USD Technical Breakdown: Key Support aur Resistance Levels

GBP/USD ke 1-hour chart par ek naye din ka low 1.3106 dekha gaya, magar jor ne kuch had tak recovery ki hai. Market ke log Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke press conference se aage ke policy adjustments ke hawale se kisi bhi isharaat ka intezar kar rahe hain. Agar GBP/USD 1.3100 ke niche girta hai, to yeh key support levels, jaise ke 1.3106 ka low aur psychological 1.3100 mark ko test kar sakta hai. Aage girawat se jor 100-day moving average (DMA) ke paas 1.3170 tak pohnch sakta hai. Wahi, significant resistance levels 1.3200 ke peak aur 1.3267 par dekhe gaye hain.

Spot price 1.3150 ke aas-paas majbooth ho gaya hai, jahan na to buyers aur na hi sellers ne strong positions le rakhi hain, kyunki Fed aur BoE ke faislon ke gird uncertainties chal rahi hain. Commodity Channel Index (CCI ab bhi neutral line par flat hai, jo is indecision ko reflect karta hai. Lekin, saal ke high se recent girawat yeh darshati hai ke bearish pressures ab bhi mojood hain.

British pound ki taaza tareen surge, jo usay U.S. dollar ke muqable mein 13 maheenon ki bulandi par le gayi thi, U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ki release ke baad market ke jazbaat mein tabdeeli ke sabab se achanak ruk gayi. Iss achanak ulat-feri ne Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ki taqreer ke liye intezar ko barhadiya hai. Market ke musharikeen beqaraar hain Powell ke nazariye se mutaliq jaane ke liye ki kya Fed September mein rate cut karega aur kitni miqdar mein. Jab ke market pehle se hi rate cut ke liye jhuk raha tha, lekin mixed PMI data ne 50-basis-point ke zyada aggressive rate cut ki afwahon ko barha diya hai. Fed ke pehle ke 25 basis points ke rate cut ne is maheenay ke liye isi qisam ke ek aur move ki imkan ko 75% ke qareeb laa diya hai. Iske bar-aks, UK ka August ka PMI data thodi si umeed ki kiran le kar aaya. Tamam components—composite, manufacturing, aur services—ne umeed se behtar perform kiya aur pichle levels se behtri dikhayi. Khaas tor par services sector mein khaasa izafa dekhne ko mila, jo April ke baad se apni buland tareen satah par hai. Doosri taraf, U.S. ke manufacturing PMI data ne maayusi dikhayi, jo forecast se neeche raha aur sector mein kamzori ki taraf ishara kiya. Halaanki, services PMI heraan kun tor par barha, lekin ismein underlying employment data ne U.S. labor market mein contraction ka ishara diya. Yeh mutazaad maashi surat-e-haal ne market ki bay-yaqeeni ko barha diya hai, khaas kar Bureau of Labor Statistics ke taraf se March ke nonfarm payrolls report mein 800,000 se zyada jobs ko retroactive taur par hataane ke baad.



Despite iss tazah set back ke bawajood, pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed gains ke liye tayar hai. Guzishta das trading dino mein pair ki positive performance bullish bias ka ishara deti hai. Lekin technical indicators, jaise ke Stochastic aur RSI, kamzori ke asaar dikha rahe hain, jo ke short-term downside pressure ko zahir karte hain. Agar GBP/USD July 2023 ke 1.3142 ke peak ko paar kar leta hai, toh yeh ek mazeed significant uptrend ko trigger kar sakta hai. Mumkin upside targets mein ek saal ki bulandi 1.3145 aur 1.3140 ka satah shamil hain. Neeche ki taraf, support levels 1.2870 par 23.6% Fibonacci level, 1.2825 aur 1.2800 par 20- aur 50-day simple moving averages, aur 1.2760 par ascending trend line aur 38.2% Fibonacci level ho sakte hain. Nateeja ke taur par, GBP/USD abhi bhi ek flux ki haalat mein hai, jahan bullish momentum Fed ki maali policy aur maashi indicators ke hawale se bay-yaqeeni ke saath mawaazna kar raha hai. Aanewala Jackson Hole Symposium pair ke mustaqbil ki simt tay karne mein aham kirdar ada karega.

GBP/USD ke pair ko apni recent recovery ko barhawa dene mein mushkilat ka samna hai, jo ke 1.3130 ke aas-paas se upar aaya—jo ke ek nazdeek multi-month high tha. Halankeh US session ke dauran pichle Friday ko thodi buying interest mili, jab spot prices 1.3155 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi thi aur US Dollar mein halki kamzori dekhne ko mili, lekin bearish traders ke liye hamesha ehtiyaat zaroori hai, khas taur par broader economic context ko dekhte hue.

GBP/USD ke fundamentals:

Federal Reserve ke baray mein ummeed hai ke wo apne July monetary policy meeting mein interest rates ko unchanged rakhega. Fed ne apni benchmark funds rate ko 5.25% se 5.50% ke range mein rakha hua hai, jo ke dino se restrictive monetary policy ka sabse lamba dor hai. Market participants Jerome Powell ke comments ko dhyan se sunenge taake future policy rates ka pata chal sake. Jaise inflation Fed ke 2% target ke kareeb aa rahi hai, speculation hai ke central bank shayad September se apni policy ko ease karna shuru kar de.

Is waqt, GBP/USD pair zyada tar major pairs ke muqable mein struggle kar raha hai, siwaay Australian Dollar ke. Investors ko BoE ke August meeting mein ek potential interest rate cut ki umeed hai, jo ke March 2020 ke baad pehli dafa hoga. BoE ne inflation se ladne ke liye restrictive monetary policy ko December 2021 se barqarar rakha hua hai, jo ke pandemic-driven stimulus measures ke baad barh gayi thi.

GBP/USD ka technical analysis:

Technical analysis ke hawale se, 1.3081 level Pound Sterling bulls ke liye ek aham support zone hai. Dusri taraf, do saal ka high jo ke 1.3264 ke aas-paas hai, ek significant resistance hai. Key resistance levels mein 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) jo ke 1.3190 par hai aur 50-day SMA jo ke 1.3129 par hai shamil hain, jabke support 100-day SMA ke aas-paas 1.3044 par hai. Agar is support ke neeche break ho jata hai, to pair aur niche 1.3000 tak ja sakta hai.


Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator bullish momentum ko kam hota dikhata hai, kyunke MACD line signal line ke neeche hai lekin centerline ke upar hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI 50 level ke thodi neeche hai, jo ke market mein bearish bias ko indicate karta hai.