𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐉𝐏𝐘

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USD/JPY Ke Trade Analysis Aur Tips

USD/JPY ki price ne 148.50 par test kiya jab MACD indicator significantly zero mark se neeche gir gaya tha, jo ke pair ke downward potential ko week ke end par limit kar raha tha. Is wajah se, maine sale nahi ki aur bina kisi transaction ke reh gaya. Aaj yen dollar ke muqable mein barh gaya hai, aur G10 currencies ke beech mein sabse zyada faida hasil kar raha hai. Yeh tab hua jab top central bank officials ke comments se pehle, jo is hafte baat karne wale hain, yen ne dollar ki broad weakness ka faida uthaya. Yen ke rise ka ta'alluq dollar ki kamzori aur Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda aur Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole mein speeches ke aane se pehle major market participants ke positions ke revision se hai.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada focus karunga scenarios No. 1 par jo ke buy signals hain:

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko tab khareedna plan kar raha hoon jab price 145.93 tak pahunche, jo chart par green line se plot kiya gaya hai. Iska maqsad 146.91 tak barhna hai jo ke chart par thicker green line se plot kiya gaya hai. 146.91 ke aas-paas main long positions se exit karunga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karunga, expecting 30-35 pips ki movement. Aaj pair ke upward correction ka hissa ban kar rise karne ki ummeed hai. Important: Khareedne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur us se rise karna shuru kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Aaj main USD/JPY ko tab khareedna plan kar raha hoon jab 145.21 ko do consecutive tests milein aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse upturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum growth ki ummeed rakh sakte hain 145.93 aur 146.91 ke opposite levels tak.

Sell Signals

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 145.21 ko test kare, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jo ke pair ki tezi se girawat ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target 144.36 hoga, jahan main short positions se exit karunga aur turant opposite direction mein long positions open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khaaskar agar pehle half of the day mein correction successful nahi hoti aur daily high test nahi hota. Important: Bechne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur decline karna shuru kar raha ho.

Scenario No. 2: Aaj main USD/JPY ko tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 145.93 ko do consecutive price tests milein aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum decline ki ummeed rakh sakte hain 145.21 aur 144.36 ke opposite levels tak.

In scenarios aur strategies ko follow karte hue, traders ko market conditions aur technical indicators ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Yeh analysis aapko better trading decisions lene mein madad karega aur USD/JPY ke potential movements ko samajhne mein asani hogi. Happy trading!

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USD/JPY Analysis

D1 time frame ke base par, is saal ke shuruat se USD/JPY currency pair ne bohot strong aur bullish movement dekhi hai, aur abhi bhi high price hone ki possibility relatively high hai. Aane wale kuch dinon mein market volatility thodi kam ho sakti hai, khaaskar sellers ke potential presence ke wajah se, khaaskar jab tak market abhi ke liye close nahi hota.

Halankeh correction hone ki chance comparatively minimal hai, aaj short position lena ek achha option ho sakta hai jisme brief take-profit value ho. Lekin agar aapko zyada significant profit chahiye, to market movements ke base par buy position open karni chahiye. Pichle kuch dinon se buyers ne market ko dominate kiya hai.

Buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan forces ka balance bohot acha nazar aa raha hai, isliye prices short term mein sideways move kar rahi hain. Is wajah se various indicators bhi ek biased direction show kar sakte hain. Lekin agar aap oscillator indicator ke direction ko dekhen, to price ke overbought hone ka possibility abhi bhi kaafi zyada hai, aur yeh support point ki taraf wapas aa sakti hai.

Short position se profit kamane ki possibility yeh instructions ke saath kaafi open hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke price apne current position se kuch pips gir sakti hai, jo ke open position ko target karega ke price take profit point 148.10 tak pahunche, jo ke demand market touch kar sakta hai. Stop loss point 147.45 par rakha jayega taake position se exit kiya ja sake. Jab main aur detail share karunga, tab main aapko zaroor bataunga. Abhi pair apne din ke opening price par trade kar raha hai, aur yeh range mein hi rehne ki ummeed hai jab tak aaj shaam ko American labour market data release nahi hota.

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Current Market Trend Analysis: USD/JPY

Overview of Trends

Market mein pichle kuch hafton se downward trend chal raha hai. 5-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi 70 ke level ke thoda niche hai, jo ke ongoing downward price movement ko signal kar raha hai. Market mein high volatility dekhi gayi hai jahan sellers ne USD/JPY trading activities ko dominate kiya hai, khaaskar pichle Wednesday ke trading session mein, jahan significant downward movement dekha gaya.

Importance of Close Monitoring

Current market conditions ko closely monitor karna bohot zaroori hai, jo ke kafi unfavorable hain aur trend mein potential changes ko consider karna prompt karti hai. Lekin, kisi bhi decisive action lene se pehle in changes ko confirm karna zaroori hai. Experience se yeh sabit hua hai ke early actions se substantial losses ho sakte hain, khaaskar agar market mein bade positions liye jayen. Market sentiment ab fearful hai, jo indicate karta hai ke Yen shayad dheere-dheere recover ho raha hai. Dollar ke long-term outlook mein ab downward momentum tez hota nazar aa raha hai.

Summary of Recent Developments

US dollar ne shuru mein uthane ki koshish ki, lekin selling pressure aur weaker-than-expected job reports ne uski efforts ko rok diya. Yeh situation further declines ke liye stage set karti hai, jo ke shayad 141 yen level ko target kare. Market ek critical juncture par hai, aur yen global financial issues ke beech security-seeking behavior se faida utha sakta hai.

Price Movement Analysis

Price ne descending channel se breakout kar diya hai lekin abhi bhi local channel mein move kar rahi hai, aur recently calculated support levels tak gir gayi hai. Is level par, yeh interesting hai ke bulls ne apne zone mein consistently buy kiya hai, lekin kuch galtiyan bhi ki hain. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke downward trajectory abhi khatam nahi hui hai. Trend channel abhi breach nahi hua, average prices abhi bhi decline kar rahi hain, aur oscillators ne upward reversal nahi kiya hai.

Linear SSI mein small increments abhi tak calculate nahi hue hain. Abhi, ek local correction ho sakti hai channel ke upper border par, jo ke phir se decline ko 145.00 tak continue karne ki potential rakh sakti hai. Yeh dekhna important hoga ke price wahan se kaise react karti hai.

Future Considerations

Agar market trend bearish rahe aur pullbacks minimal rahen, to yeh strong selling pressure ko indicate karta hai. Jabke significant pullback market sentiment ko change kar sakta hai, abhi ke liye price action aur economic indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai. Market dynamics aur economic updates ke baare mein aware rehna timely decisions lene aur trading strategies ko adjust karne ke liye crucial hai.

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Technical Analysis of USD/JPY Currency Pair

Current Trend

USD/JPY currency pair ka technical analysis yeh darshata hai ke downward trend continue karne ke chances hain, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se clearly nazar aa raha hai. Yeh southward movement Zigzag indicator aur other technical tools jaise Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) se bhi support ho rahi hai, jo ke ab overbought zone mein hain aur potential short-selling opportunities ka indication dete hain.

Market Sentiment

Filhaal market sentiment bearish hai, aur analyst ka plan hai ke open position ko -23.6% Fibonacci support level par close karna hai, jo ke 144.694 ke price par hai. Risk ko mitigate karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par shift karenge jab position profitable territory mein enter karegi. Yeh approach traders ko bearish momentum ka faida uthane ki ijazat deti hai, jabke potential price reversals se bacha bhi sakti hai.

Impact of US Labor Market Data

Recent US labor market data release ne USD/JPY price ko downward move kiya hai, jo ke trader Dmitry ke liye positive news hai, jo is bearish trend se faida utha rahe hain. Lekin, analyst ka kehna hai ke Japanese yen long term mein apni strength maintain nahi kar payega, aur price eventually stabilize ho sakti hai, jo ke consolidation ya northward move ko lead kar sakta hai.

Outlook on the US Dollar

Bearish sentiment ke bawajood, analyst US dollar ko puri tarah ignore nahi karte. American currency apni resilience ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi bhi waqt comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal ke through ho ya other currency pairs mein strength ke through. Analyst market conditions ko continuously monitor karenge aur trading strategies ko adjust karenge taake kisi bhi potential opportunity ka faida utha sakain.

Importance of Risk Management

Forex market mein trading ke inherent risks ko samajhna zaroori hai. Investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies implement karni chahiye, aur investment decisions lene se pehle professional guidance seek karni chahiye. Next Federal Reserve meeting tak ek mahina bacha hai, aur is period ke dauran currency pair mein significant price increase dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yeh largely dollar ki strength ke fundamental drivers par depend karta hai, jaise ke US economy ki strong performance aur Fed ki hawkish monetary policy stance jo unchanged hai. Recent economic data releases ke bawajood, speculation yeh hai ke government agencies ne information ko manipulate kiya ho sakta hai taake elections se pehle ek behtar picture present ki ja sake, lekin dollar ka long-term trajectory bullish nazar aata hai.

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USD/JPY Pair Ki Upar Ki Taraf Movement Ka Jaiza

Ta'aruf

USD/JPY currency pair filhaal upar ki taraf movement ke liye achi conditions dikha raha hai. Jo traders is trend ko pehchan lete hain, wo key support levels ke nazdeek long positions lekar anticipated price increases ka faida utha sakte hain.

Maujooda Market Conditions

USD/JPY pair ke liye market conditions long positions ke liye promising nazar aa rahi hain. Support levels 161.35-161.21 ne mazbooti se hold kiya hai, jo ke anticipated upward movement ke liye ek solid base provide kar raha hai, jo resistance zone 161.83-161.36 ki taraf ja rahi hai. Recent price actions se buyers ki strength zahir hoti hai, aur US dollar ke kamzor hone ki umeed bullish outlook ko aur reinforce karti hai.

Key Levels Ki Monitoring Ki Ahmiyat

Jaise jaise market potential gains ke liye tayyar ho raha hai, traders ko key levels aur trends ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake apne profit potential ko maximize kiya ja sake. Pichle hafte ke market behavior ka analysis yeh dikhata hai ke buyers ne consistently support level 161.300 ko hold kiya hai, jo ke price ko aur niche girne se rokti hai. Yeh strong support foundation potential upward movements ke liye ek mazboot base create karti hai.

Resistance Levels Aur Buyer Strength

Resistance level 161.47 ek critical benchmark ke tor par kaam karta hai. Agar yeh level touch hota hai, to yeh bullish trend ki strength ko validate kar sakta hai. Pichle hafte ka resistance level 161.73-161.46 par completion yeh darshata hai ke buyers ki strength mazboot hai. Historically, yeh level significant resistance point ke tor par kaam karta hai, aur price ke iske nazdeek close hone se yeh suggeste hota hai ke buyers control gain kar rahe hain. Yeh bullish momentum aane wale dinon mein continue hone ki umeed hai, aur price ko 161.83 resistance zone ki taraf push karega.

Risks Aur Reevaluation

Dusri taraf, agar interest rate higher-than-expected hota hai to US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo strategies ko reevaluate karne ki zaroorat ko paida karega. Isliye, traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke wo potential risks ke bare mein updated rahe, jab wo apne strategies form karte hain.

Nateejah

Aakhir mein, main bullish strategy follow karne ka tajwez deta hoon. Technical aur fundamental analyses dono potential upward movements ko indicate karte hain. Market 161.42 level tak reach kar sakti hai, jo ke positive economic data aur favorable conditions se supported hai. Trading strategies ko prevailing bullish trend ke saath align karte hue aur key economic indicators se updated rahte hue, traders apne profit potential ko maximize kar sakte hain jabke risks ko effectively manage bhi kar sakte hain.

Technical Aur Fundamental Insights

Recent trend line break aur persistent bearish momentum strong bearish sentiment ko highlight karte hain. Technical aur fundamental analysis ko combine karke, traders informed decisions le sakte hain, key levels ka faida utha sakte hain, aur broader economic trends ko navigate kar sakte hain jabke risks ko appropriately manage karte hain.

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USD/JPY Ki Aham Barhavat Ka Jaiza

US Dollar (USD) ne Japanese Yen (JPY) ke muqablay mein kafi zyada barhavat dekhi hai, jahan currency pair pehle ke low 141.71 se door chala gaya hai. Filhaal, USD/JPY ke trading level 147.57 ke aas-paas hai. Market participants is pair mein significant fluctuations ka closely observation kar rahe hain aur Japanese authorities ke kisi bhi potential intervention measures par bhi dhyan de rahe hain, jo Yen ki further depreciation ko control karne ke liye ho sakte hain.

USD/JPY Ke Buniyadi Tajaweez

Bloomberg ki recent reports aur RBC BlueBay Asset Management ke insights ke mutabiq, Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni bond purchases ko market ke pehle ke expectations se zyada significant reduction par ghoor kar sakti hai. Agar iske saath interest rate hike bhi hota hai, to yeh ek strong combination of hawkish factors create kar sakta hai jo Japanese Yen ko aur bhi mazbooti de sakta hai.

Swaps me shamil traders dekh rahe hain ke forward contracts ke liye swap rates badh rahe hain, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke July ke end tak ek aur interest rate hike hone ki probability badh rahi hai. Yeh trend June 18 ko shuru hua tha, jab BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne additional rate adjustment ki possibility ka hint diya tha.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook

Monday ke din, USD/JPY pair 148.00 ke nazdeek trading kar raha hai aur daily chart analysis ke mutabiq bullish trend dikha raha hai. Yeh pair ascending channel pattern ke upper boundary ke close positioned hai. Lekin, traders ko caution ke sath proceed karna chahiye kyunki 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 se upar hai, jo overbought conditions ko indicate karta hai aur yeh suggest karta hai ke correction aane ki umeed ho sakti hai.

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USD/JPY Currency Pair Ka Technical Analysis

USD/JPY currency pair ka technical analysis yeh darshata hai ke downward trend jaari rehne ke imkaan hain, jaisa ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se zahir hota hai. Yeh southward movement Zigzag indicator ke saath-saath, Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) jaise auxiliary technical tools se bhi support milti hai, jo filhal overbought zone mein hain aur short-selling opportunities ke potential ko suggest karte hain.

Mojooda Market Sentiment

Filhal market mein bearish sentiment dekha ja raha hai. Analyst ka plan yeh hai ke open positions ko -23.6% Fibonacci support level par close kiya jaye, jo ke 144.694 ke price par located hai. Risk ko kam karne ke liye, analyst ne plan banaya hai ke stop-loss order ko breakeven level par shift kiya jaye jab position profitable territory mein chale jaye. Yeh approach traders ko bearish momentum ka faida uthane ka mauka deti hai jabke price reversals se bachav bhi karti hai.

US Labor Market Data Ka Asar

Recent US labor market data ke release ne USD/JPY price ko neeche ki taraf move karne par majboor kiya hai. Yeh development trader Dmitry ke liye achi khabar hai, jo is bearish trend se faida utha raha hai. Lekin, analyst ka kehna hai ke Japanese yen ko long term mein strong rehne ki ummeed nahi hai aur price eventually stabilize ho sakti hai, jisse consolidation ya northward move ka imkaan hai.

US Dollar Ka Jaiza

Filhal ke bearish sentiment ke bawajood, analysts US dollar ki resilience ko ignore nahi karte. American currency apni strength ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi bhi waqt comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal ke zariye ho ya doosri currency pairs mein strength ke zariye. Analysts market conditions ko closely monitor karenge aur trading strategies ko adjust karenge taake potential opportunities ka faida utha sakein.

Risk Awareness Aur Market Strategy

Foreign exchange market mein trading karte waqt inherent risks ko samajhna zaroori hai. Investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies implement karni chahiye, aur investment decisions lene se pehle professional guidance leni chahiye. Agle Federal Reserve meeting tak ek mahina reh gaya hai, aur is currency pair mein significant price increases ab bhi dekhe ja sakte hain. Yeh dollar ki strength ke driving factors, jaise US economy ka robust performance aur Fed ka hawkish stance on monetary policy, ke chalte hai jo recent economic data releases ke bawajood fundamentally nahi badle hain. Kuch log speculate karte hain ke government agencies data ko political gains ke liye manipulate kar sakti hain, khaaskar elections ke qareeb, lekin dollar ka long-term trajectory bullish rehne ki umeed hai.

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USD/JPY Market Analysis

Current Context

Thursday ko US dollar ko Japanese yen ke khilaf mushkilat ka samna karna pada, jab ke trading activity kaafi zyada thi. Yeh is baat ko darshata hai ke market abhi bhi yeh samajhne ki koshish kar rahi hai ke dollar 148.50 yen ke key resistance level ko tod sakta hai ya nahi, jo ke stronger momentum generate kar sakta hai. Magar filhal dollar broader long-term trend mein struggle kar raha hai, aur agar yeh level paar nahi hota, to yeh significant risks ka signal ho sakta hai.

Market Expectations

Maujooda scenario ko dekhte hue, market ki expectation hai ke yeh thoda subdued rahegi. Agar Monday ke swing low se niche break hota hai, to yeh dollar ke liye negative sign hoga, aur yen ko additional strength milne ke chances barh jayenge. Yeh situation deleveraging aur risk management ke broader issues se bhi judi hui hai. Halankeh dollar-yen pair ne thodi si rebound kiya hai, magar current enthusiasm kaafi limited hai.

Both Currencies Ka Monitoring

Dono currencies ko monitor karna zaroori hai, kyunki yeh market ke overall risk appetite ke insights provide kar sakte hain. Dollar aur yen ke interactions aam tor par global financial markets ke broader trends ko reflect karte hain, jo traders ke liye ek important factor ban jata hai jab woh various asset classes ko consider karte hain.

Dollar Ke Liye Challenges

Agar US dollar higher rise karne ki koshish karega, to major resistance levels ke khilaf significant challenges ka samna karna padega. Agar yeh levels break nahi hote, to yen strong rehta hai, khaaskar agar broader market conditions risk-averse ho jayein. Traders ko in currency dynamics par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki yeh global markets ke direction ke baare mein important clues provide kar sakte hain.

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Current Market Analysis of USD/JPY Currency Pair

USD/JPY currency pair filhal 146.03 par trade kar raha hai aur bearish trend ka samna kar raha hai. Yeh downward movement dheere-dheere ho raha hai, jo market sentiment ko Japanese yen ke haq mein dikhata hai. Halankeh pair ne recent sessions mein limited volatility dikhayi hai, magar abhi bhi substantial movement ki potential hai, jo current market conditions ko dekhte hue ummeed hai.

Macroeconomic Environment

USD/JPY pair mein significant movement ke liye kai factors responsible ho sakte hain. Sabse pehle, broader macroeconomic environment ka USD dollar ke against yen ki strength par badi role hai. U.S. Federal Reserve ke monetary policy decisions, khaaskar interest rates ke hawale se, USD ki strength ko determine karte hain. Agar Fed ke stance mein koi shift ka signal mile, jaise ke rate hikes ka pause ya dovish approach, to yeh USD ki weakness ko barha sakta hai aur bearish trend ko accelerate kar sakta hai.

Bank of Japan’s Stance

Dusra, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne bohot arse se ultra-loose monetary policy maintain ki hui hai, jiski wajah se yen traditionally baqi major currencies ke muqablay mein kamzor raha hai. Magar agar BoJ se policy shift ke indications mile, jaise ke tightening ya unexpected interest rate adjustments, to yeh yen ko aur majboot kar sakta hai aur USD/JPY pair ko niche le ja sakta hai.

Global Risk Sentiment

Ek aur aham factor global risk sentiment hai. Japanese yen ko aksar ek safe-haven currency ke tor par dekha jata hai, jo market uncertainty ke doran investors ko attract karta hai. Agar global economic conditions kharab hoti hain ya geopolitical tensions barhati hain, to yen ko additional strength mil sakti hai, jo USD/JPY pair mein sharp decline ka sabab ban sakti hai.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis bhi yeh suggest karta hai ke USD/JPY pair significant move ke liye poised hai. Filhal bearish trend dikhata hai ke sellers control mein hain; magar volatility ki kami se lagta hai ke market major movement se pehle consolidate kar raha hai. Key support levels ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai; agar yeh levels breach ho jayein, to ek substantial sell-off trigger ho sakta hai, jo pair ko rapidly decline karwa sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair strong support encounter karta hai, to yeh bounce back kar sakta hai, lekin iske liye market sentiment mein shift ki zaroorat hogi.

Upcoming U.S. Economic Data

Aane wale dino mein U.S. economic reports aur data releases ko closely dekhna zaroori hoga, kyunki yeh USD/JPY currency pair ke movement aur foreign exchange market ki overall dynamics ko further influence kar sakte hain.

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USD/JPY Analysis

USD/JPY pair ne kal 147.30 ke support level ke upar apni strength banaye rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya. Ek pullback ke doran, yeh Friday ke low se neeche chala gaya, jo ke 145.20 ke support level ki taraf reversal ko indicate karta hai. Yeh scenario maine pehle bhi anticipate kiya tha aur ab bhi ummeed hai ke pair resistance level 150.30 ki taraf uthega. Filhal, pair 145.20 ki taraf pullback kar raha hai, lekin abhi tak is support level tak nahi pohcha, aur downward movement jaari hai, jaise maine kal predict kiya tha.

Current Price Movement

Pair ki decline ho rahi hai. Magar, 145.20 ki taraf move karne se pehle, resistance level 147.30 ki taraf pullback ka attempt ho sakta hai. Agar pair is level ko break karne mein nakam hoti hai, to yeh 145.20 tak neeche ja sakta hai, jahan main ek reversal aur 148.60 ki taraf bounce back ki ummeed kar raha hoon. Agar price is level ko break kar deti hai, to further decline ke liye 142.80 ki taraf aim kar sakti hai. Wahan se, ek possible pullback 145.20 tak ho sakta hai, phir 140.00 tak ek deep drop dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Pullback Scenarios

Agar pullback ke doran pair 147.30 ke upar break kar jaati hai, to yeh 148.60 tak wapas aa sakti hai. Is baar, mujhe poora yakin hai ke yeh zaroori corrections complete kar sakti hai aur 150.30 ki taraf push kar sakti hai. Uske baad, main downward movement ke liye potential reversal dekhunga jo 140.00 ke neeche ek larger downward cycle ka indication dega.

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USD/JPY Currency Pair Analysis

USD/JPY currency pair filhal sideways movement dikha raha hai, jo ke ek consolidation phase ka indication hai. Haal hi mein volatility ke bawajood, pair ne pichle haftay ke trading mein 141.72 ke support level se notable rejection dekha. Abhi USD/JPY 147.00 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo market ki indecision aur traders ki wait-and-see approach ko signal kar raha hai.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Federal Reserve ke agle move ke expectations USD/JPY ki price action ko bahut zyada influence karti hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, September mein 25-basis-point rate cut ka 67.3% probability hai. Is ke muqabil, rate pause ka chance 26.5% hai, aur ek zyada substantial 50-basis-point cut ki probability sirf 6.2% hai. US 10-year benchmark rate filhal is haftay ke range ke lower end par hai, jo 4.36% ke aas-paas hai, aur US bond markets Thursday ko closed the. Is waqt, Japan ke Overnight Indexed Swap curve ke mutabiq, July 31 tak 48.2% chance hai rate hike ka aur September 20 tak 39.8% chance hai.

US Dollar ne pressure face kiya hai, mainly declining US Treasury yields aur kamzor economic data ke wajah se, jo Fed interest rate cuts ke expectations ko reinforce karte hain 2024 ke liye. Is wajah se, USD ne traction gain karne mein struggle kiya hai, aur Thursday ko US markets closed hone ke bawajood, volatility subdued rehne ka mumkin hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Agar pair current channel ke top se decisive breakout karta hai, to bearish scenarios ko negate kiya ja sakta hai aur 148.00 ki taraf move dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin, is level ke upar momentum sustain karna challenging ho sakta hai. Agar 147.50 ke upar break hota hai, to pair 148.50 ki taraf push ho sakta hai, aur 150.00 ka psychological mark bhi play mein aa sakta hai.

Pullback Scenarios:

Agar pair pullback dekhta hai, to yeh 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke aas-paas support find kar sakta hai, jo filhal 153.65 par hai. Yeh SMA ne pehle bhi USD/JPY ke uptrend ke doran support provide kiya hai. Agar price 146.26 ke neeche girti hai, to bearish move ka case mazid strong ho sakta hai, jo suggest karta hai ke pair lower levels ko test kar sakta hai.

lagta hai ke pair 154.00 aur 154.40 ke darmiyan bounce kar sakta hai. Yeh range ek potential support zone represent karti hai jahan price temporarily retrace kar sakti hai pehle ke upward trend ko resume karne se pehle. Is bounce ke bawajood, upper bullish channel ki overall structure intact hai, jo long-term upward trend ko indicate karti hai. Traders ko in short-term fluctuations ko dekhna chahiye jab apne entries aur exits plan kar rahe hon D1 timeframe par, USD/JPY pair consistent bullish momentum dikhayi de raha hai. Current price action ne ek triangle pattern banaya hai, jo aksar consolidation period se pehle breakout ko indicate karta hai. Prevailing bullish sentiment ko dekhte hue, yeh highly likely hai ke pair ek upward breakout experience karega, jo 50-80 pips tak move kar sakta hai. Yeh breakout broader bullish trend ke sath align karega aur
traders ko USD ki strength ke against JPY se capitalize karne ka mauka dega. Triangle pattern ka upper boundary ek key level hai jo traders ko anticipated breakout ke liye dekhna chahiye, jo potential buy signals ke liye clear indications offer kar sakta hai Agar pair apne current levels se downturn experience karta hai, to ek strong re-entry opportunity 153.50 level par hai. Yeh level ek significant support zone ko represent karta hai jo further declines ko rok sakta hai aur traders ko long positions ke liye ek favorable entry point de sakta hai. Stop-losses ko strategically 153.83 level par place karna chahiye taake effectively risk manage kiya ja sake aur unforeseen market movements ke against protection mile. Support zone ke neeche stop-loss set karke, traders potential losses ko minimize kar sakte hain jabke anticipated upward movement se profit maximize kar sakte hain
Overall, current setup USD/JPY pair ke liye D1 timeframe par ek compelling opportunity present karta hai taake traders ongoing bullish trend se benefit le sakain, magar short-term fluctuations ko navigate karte waqt caution zaroori hai. Monday raat ke trades khulne ke baad se humari currency pair ki situation unchanged rahi hai, hum sideways move kar rahe hain jo 25 July se form hui thi. Clarity aur visual perception ke liye, maine screen par H1 timeframe choose kiya hai, jahan maine horizontal lines draw ki hain jo local resistance aur support act karti hain scalping enthusiasts ke liye. Aisi hi situation arise hoti hai jab Fibonacci grid use karte hain, jab tak hum hundred level ko break nahi karte, trading ki baat nahi ho sakti, intraday traders ko kaafi decent internal distance consider karna chahiye work ke liye, magar bina stop ke new positions open karna mumkin nahi. Economic calendar traders ko koi new information nahi deta, Japan aur USA se statistical data jo three-star category mein aata hai, absent hai. Meanwhile, hum 153 figure ko break karne ki doosri koshish observe kar rahe hain, impulses aaye hain, lekin humein sirf candle wicks dikhayi de rahi hain, jabke

USD/JPY

Kal mujhe lag raha tha ke USD/JPY pair upar jayega, lekin yeh downward pressure ka saamna kar raha hai, aur Tuesday ke early Asian session mein 146.05 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Iski recent decline ka sabab Federal Reserve ke September mein interest rate cut ke expectations hain. Yeh rate-cut expectations recent economic data ki wajah se barh gayi hain jo suggest karti hain ke U.S. economy thandi ho rahi hai, aur Fed shayad apni monetary policy ko zyada accommodative bana de.

Is sentiment ki wajah se U.S. dollar kamzor ho gaya hai, kyunki traders lower yields ke possibility ko price in kar rahe hain. Dollar ki weakness ko Fed ke agle move ki uncertainty bhi badha rahi hai, jisse global markets mein dollar ki demand kam ho gayi hai.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ko Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke hawkish stance se support mila hai. Fed ke contrast mein, BoJ apni current monetary policy ko maintain karne ki signal de raha hai, jo ke low interest rates ko include karta hai taake economic recovery ko support mil sake. Lekin, BoJ officials ke recent remarks ne hint diya hai ke agar inflationary pressures Japan mein barhte hain, to BoJ tightening ki taraf shift kar sakta hai. BoJ ka yeh hawkish tone yen ko dollar ke khilaf strong banane mein madad de raha hai, jo USD/JPY pair ke downward trajectory ko contribute kar raha hai.

Yen ki strength ko safe-haven appeal bhi contribute kar rahi hai. Global economic uncertainties, khas kar Chinese economy aur geopolitical tensions ke concerns, investors ko yen jaise safer assets mein refuge lene par majboor kar rahe hain. Yeh flight to safety USD/JPY pair par selling pressure ko aur barhawa de rahi hai.

Aage dekhte hain, traders U.S. economic data releases aur Federal Reserve ke policy outlook par nazar rakhenge. BoJ ke developments ko bhi closely monitor kiya jayega, khas kar agar policy stance zyada aggressive hone ki indication milti hai. Yeh dono central banks ke policies ka interplay USD/JPY pair ki direction ko agle weeks mein influence karta rahega.



USD/JPY pair ki recent decline Fed ke September mein rate cut ke bets ki wajah se hai, jo U.S. dollar ko kamzor kar raha hai. Iske muqablay mein, Japanese yen BoJ ke hawkish stance aur global uncertainties ke darmiyan apni safe-haven appeal ke zariye support mein hai. Jab tak central banks ki policies par clarity nahi milti, USD/JPY pair mein continued volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai.

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USD/JPY Trade Analysis and Tips

USD/JPY ke price test 146.13 par tab hua jab MACD indicator zero line se neeche move kar raha tha, jo dollar ko bechne ke liye ek accha entry point lag raha tha aur downward trend ko continue karne ka signal de raha tha. Lekin, chart par dekhne se pata chalta hai ke pair gir nahi paayi, jiski wajah se loss hua. Aaj Japan se data ki kami aur Japanese policymakers ke speeches se pehle ka pause, US dollar ke liye faida mand sabit ho sakta hai, jo shayad is hafte ke shuru mein khoi hui positions ko regain karne ki koshish kare. Lekin, jitna dollar upar jayega, utna hi bechna aur medium-term downward trend ko develop karna attractive hota jayega, jo abhi bhi intact hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada rely karunga.

Buy Signals

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko 147.37 ke entry point par kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon, jo chart par green line se plot kiya gaya hai. Mera goal 148.11 tak upar jana hai, jo chart par thicker green line se plot kiya gaya hai. 148.11 ke area mein, main long positions ko exit karunga aur short positions kholunga, expecting ki price 30-35 pips ke opposite direction mein move karegi. Aaj pair ke upward correction ke part ke tor par upar jane ki umeed hai. Important: Buy karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar hai aur us se upar move kar raha hai.

Scenario No. 2: Agar USD/JPY 146.74 ko do consecutive tests deta hai jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho, to main aaj bhi USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse upturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum growth ki umeed kar sakte hain 147.37 aur 148.21 ke levels tak.

Sell Signals

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko sirf tab bechne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 146.74 level ka test complete ho jaye, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jisse pair mein tezi se girawat aayegi. Sellers ke liye key target 145.78 hoga, jahan main short positions ko exit karunga aur turant opposite direction mein long positions open karunga, expecting ki price 20-25 pips ke opposite direction mein move karegi. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi moment wapas aa sakta hai, khaaskar agar pehle half of the day mein correction unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche hai aur decline kar raha hai.

Scenario No. 2: Agar USD/JPY 147.37 ko do consecutive tests deta hai jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho, to main aaj bhi USD/JPY ko bechne ka plan kar raha hoon. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 146.74 aur 145.78 ke levels tak ki decline ki umeed kar sakte hain.

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Forex USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Japanese yen ne US dollar ke khilaf 145 yen ke threshold ko cross kiya, jo ke takreeban do hafton mein uski highest level thi, jab ke US dollar kamzor ho gaya due to Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ko aasan karne ki barhti hui umeedon ke wajah se. Pichle haftay, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank ke President Austin Goolsbee ne kaha tha ke US labor market aur kuch leading economic indicators warning signs dikha rahe hain, credit card defaults ke badhte huye levels ka zikar karte hue.

Local front par, investors ne economic data ko digest kiya jahan Japan ke machinery orders, jo capital spending ka indicator hai, June mein 2.1% ki monthly basis par barh gaye, jab ke expectation 1.1% ki thi. Ab markets Japanese inflation figures ke intezar mein hain jo is hafte ke end mein aane wale hain, taki Bank of Japan ke monetary policy ka raasta clear ho sake. Overall, Japanese yen (JPY) ne US dollar (USD) ke khilaf do din se barhoti dekhi hai, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke hawkish sentiment aur barhti geopolitical tensions ke wajah se hai. Doosre quarter mein Japanese GDP growth ki umeed se zyada hone ki wajah se speculation hai ke BoJ shayad interest rates ko qareeb ke waqt barha sakta hai, jo yen ki barhoti mein madadgar sabit hui hai.

Economic calendar ke results ke mutabiq... Pichle haftay data ne dikhaya ke Japan ki economy ne second quarter mein 0.8% ki quarterly basis par barhoti dekhi, jab ke pehle quarter mein 0.6% contraction dekha tha aur expectation se 0.5% zyada barh gaya. Annual basis par, economy ne second quarter mein 3.1% ki growth dekhi, jo pehle quarter mein 2.3% decline se reverse hui aur 2.1% growth ke expectation se zyada thi.

USD/JPY Forecast Aaj

Chart Analysis:

Daily chart ke performance ke mutabiq, USD/JPY price ne apne broader bearish path ko wapas pakad liya hai aur agar 144.00 ka support break hota hai to yeh next stronger bearish move ko support karega jo ke psychological support 140.00 ki taraf le jayega. Isse pehle, technical indicators strong oversold levels ki taraf move karenge. Dusri taraf, aur same time frame mein, psychological resistance 150.00 bulls ke liye ek important element banega jo further advance ko support karega. USD/JPY pair apne current bearish range mein reh sakta hai jab tak markets aur investors US Federal Reserve ki last meeting ke minutes ki announcement aur Jackson Hole symposium mein global central bank officials ke statements ka reaction nahi dete.

Summary:

Aaj ke din, USD/JPY ki technical analysis ye show karti hai ke pair bearish trend mein hai aur 144.00 ka support break hone se psychological support 140.00 ki taraf move ho sakta hai. Agar market reaction aur global central bank officials ke statements ka impact pata chale to USD/JPY apni current bearish range ko continue kar sakta hai. Bulls ke liye 150.00 ka psychological resistance important rahega, jab ke technical indicators oversold levels ki taraf move kar rahe hain. Investors ko Japanese inflation figures aur US Federal Reserve ke minutes ka intezar hai jo future market direction ko determine karega.