Eur/usd

Aj intraday trading ko mojuda maqamoon par nazar rakhte hue, EUR/USD joda ka maamla kafi fazilat rakhta hai. Marbut nazariyat se sabit hota hai ke is waqt EUR/USD pair mein talab badh rahi hai, is liye har waqt bina khataab ke zariye talash ki jayein. Mundariyati taur par, yeh lagta hai ke is pair mein or barhane ke asbaab hain, jese ke maqamoon ke mutaabiq fawad-hindi rujhaan hai. Intraday traders ko is zaroori rujhaan se faida uthana chahiye, bina kisi wujood short-term uplabdhiyon se manaa ho. Medium-term mein, aisa lagta hai ke 1.1700 ya us se upar ek achanak girawat ka amal nahi ho sakta, malayin key maroosi nimish ke mutaabiq yeh girawat asimanto mein nahi lagti. Is baat par nazar rakhna chahiye ke yeh pair barhta jaye ga, jo ke is waqt kacherha ilmi-nazariyat aur sarzamini jazbaat ko madde nazar rakhta hai. Kulliyat mein, EUR/USD joda ek zaroori mauqa sabit hota hai intraday maamlaat mein. Muqaamoon ki is waqt favarati rujhaan hain, is liye traders ko talaash par nazar rakhte hue kharidari mauqaat ko hasil karna chahiye. Mundariyati zawa'ir bhi is rujhaan ke liye hukam banta hai, is liye achanak barhanay ki sochna faqat mokhtasir hasti ka tajziya na ho. Muntazir maqamat par nazar rakhte hue, strategic rabtah apna kar euro-dollar pair ke is pozitive rujhaan se faida uthana zaroori hoga.

EUR/USD currency pair ke price action par hamari analysis aur discussion hogi. EUR/USD ki decline ne ek reasonably wide price channel mein develop kiya hai, jo price ko medium-term corridor ke lower boundary tak le aya hai. Ye downward impulse weekly trading ke end tak complete ho sakta hai. EUR/USD ne is decline corridor ke support limit ko touch kiya aur thodi si rebound shuru ki, trading week ko 1.0701 par close kiya, jo price channel ke support boundary ke upar tha. Iss technical situation ko dekhte hue, hum pair ke liye further price correction anticipate kar sakte hain, specifically current corridor mein ek growing pullback movement.

Weekend ke liye, EUR/USD levels ka technical markup medium-term price chart aur four hours chart par kuch is tarah hai:

Good afternoon. Ab tak, sellers ne 1.07185 level ko break karne ke baad price ko aur neeche move nahi kiya hai, aur buyers is level ke upar gain karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Lekin abhi tak current growth zyada tarah correction lag rahi hai, jiske baad hum price ke neeche girne ki umeed rakh sakte hain. Is scenario ke development ko confirm karne ke liye, hume 1.06666 level ka breakdown aur consolidation dekhna hoga. Agar ye manage ho jaye, to target level 1.06484 ho sakta hai. Agar sellers inertia se actively is level par gain kar lete hain, to price ka further drop 1.06 level tak expect kiya ja sakta hai.

Price Kijun line se neeche gir gayi aur bearish "dead cross" ko confirm kiya, downward momentum continue ho gaya, jo weekly aur daily formats mein bearish direction ko dominant banata hai. EUR/USD ke liye nearest significant resistance cloud ke lower border par 1.0731 hai. Agar ye break hota hai, to bulls apne pullback ko upper cloud border tak extend kar sakte hain jo 1.0791 par hai, yeh trading ke doran zyada clear ho jayega. Ek potential pullback ke baad, price support zone 1.0629/1.0589 ya shayad usse neeche continue karegi.

Yeh development suggest karti hai ke market indicators aur intraday levels ka close monitoring zaruri hai taake EUR/USD trajectory ko effectively navigate kiya ja sake. Current technical indicators aur price patterns downward trend ko continue karne ka ishara dete hain, lekin fluctuations aur corrections likely hain. In factors ko dekh kar, traders informed decisions le sakte hain, opportunities capitalize karte hue aur risk ko manage karte hue.

HAPPY KILLER EUR/USD TRADING DISCUSSION

Daily Timeframe Outlook:

Aaj market ne choti si gap ke sath open kiya, jo ab close ho chuki hai aur ab tak Asian session mein, buyers apni positions hold kar rahe hain Friday ke daily range close par. Aaj ke liye, main maanta hoon ke nearest support level, jo mere markings ke mutabiq 1.06675 par hai, kaam kar sakta hai. Jaise ke maine pehle kai baar kaha hai, is support level ke qareeb do scenarios ho sakte hain. Pehla scenario turning candle ka formation aur upward price movement ka resume hone se related hai. Agar yeh plan work out hota hai, toh main price ko resistance level 1.08522 tak move karne ka wait karunga. Agar price is resistance level ke upar fix ho jati hai, toh main further northward movement ka intezar karunga, resistance level 1.09160 ya resistance level 1.09812 tak. Main in resistance levels ke qareeb ek trading setup ka formation dekhunga, jo further trading direction determine karne mein madad karega. Ek aur option yeh bhi hai ke price more distant northern target 1.11393 tak ja sakti hai, lekin yahan dekhna hoga ke situation kaise evolve hoti hai aur news background kaise flow hota hai aur price in northern targets par kaise react karti hai.

Ek alternative option yeh hai ke aaj ke support level 1.06675 ka testing ke dauran price us level ke neeche consolidate ho jati hai aur further south move karti hai. Agar yeh plan work out hota hai, toh main price ko support level 1.06011 tak move karne ka intezar karunga. Main is support level ke qareeb bullish signals ki talash karunga, anticipation mein ke upward price movement resume hoga. Briefly, aaj mujhe locally kuch interesting nazar nahi aa raha. Overall, main maanta hoon ke northern movement resume ho sakti hai, aur isliye main nearest support levels se bullish signals ki talash kar raha hoon.

ya central bank ke elan ka intezar ho sakta hai. Market participants aksar bade trades karne se pehle rok jate hain jab significant data releases ka intezar hota hai, taake market ke galat side par na phans jayein. Misal ke tor par, agar GDP growth, employment figures, ya inflation data jaise key economic indicators jald release hone wale hain, to traders aksar in reports ka intezar karte hain taake unhein market ka wazeh rukh mil sake. Isi tarah, agar central banks ke upcoming statements ya policy decisions hone wale hain, to yeh bhi market movements par bara asar dal sakte hain. Aise scenarios mein, market aam tor par khamosh rehta hai jab tak traders in critical information ka intezar karte hain.Ek aur mumkin sabab jo aaj ki inakti ko contribute kar sakta hai wo broader market sentiment aur overall investor caution ho sakta hai. Kabhi kabhi low volatility aur lack of movement broader sense of uncertainty ya risk aversion ko reflect karte hain jo market participants ke darmiyan hota hai. Yeh un waqt mein ho sakta hai jab geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, ya bade global events ke lead-up mein ho. Jab investors ko future direction ke baray mein shak hota hai, to wo aksar wait-and-see approach apnate hain, jo subdued trading activity ko janam deta hai. Technically, initial movement ke baad 1.0700 level par lack of follow-through ko bhi market ka ek breather lena kaha ja sakta hai. Yeh tab hota hai jab price ek significant level par pohanchti hai lekin aage barhne ki momentum nahi hoti. Aise cases mein, market consolidation phase mein enter hota hai jahan yeh narrow range mein trade karta hai jab buyers aur sellers ek dusre ko balance karte hain. Yeh consolidation market cycle ka ek healthy hissa hota hai, jo next significant move se pehle energy accumulate karne ka moka deta hai.Aage dekhte hue, kal ka trading session ziada wazeh information de sakta hai. Yeh current pause wakai temporary ho sakta hai, aur market anticipated data ya events ke baad apni movement resume kar sakta hai. Traders ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur new developments par nazar rakhni chahiye jo market ke direction ke baray mein clearer insights provide kar sakti hain.Akhir mein, aaj ka din market mein ek inactive din tha, jo initial movement ke baad lack of further development se characterized tha. Yeh inactivity upcoming economic data, central bank announcements, broader market sentiment, ya ek technical consolidation phase ki wajah se ho sakti hai. Kal ka trading session ziada wazeh information de sakta hai, aur traders ko alert rehna chahiye taake kisi bhi emerging opportunities ko capitalize kar sakein. Market developments ko closely monitor karte hue aur adaptable rehkar, traders periods of inactivity ko navigate kar sakte hain aur next significant move ke liye ready reh sakte hain

Aik bayaanbardar Wednesday EUR/USD pair ke liye tha jab ke America ke markets midweek holiday ke liye bekaar the. Is badi market ke movers ki kami ne investors ka tawajjo Friday ke crucial data releases, khaas tor par Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, ki taraf mod diya, jo ummeed hai ke economic activity par hidaayat dene mein madadgar sabit honge. Is doran, Thursday ne kuch scattered economic updates laaye. Amreeka ne apna initial unemployment claims report unveil kiya, jo thoda sa barhav dikhata hai lekin chaar hafton ka average qareeb qareeb hi hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne bhi apna latest economic bulletin jaari kiya, lekin yeh mainly pehle announce ki gayi interest rate decisions ki dohrana thi












Teknik nazar se dekha jaaye to EUR/USD pair ko aik ahem level par resistance ka saamna hai (200 hourly EMA at 1.0767), jo 1.0750 barrier ke upar surge ko challenging banata hai. 1.0670 ke qareeb se haal hi mein aaye low se rebound hone ke bawajood, upar ki taraf jaane ki momentum mein kami nazar aa rahi hai. Daily chart mein aik mumkin climb ka ishara hai 200-day EMA ke qareeb jo 1.0800 ke nazdeek hai. Lekin late December highs ke qareeb mazboot resistance hai (qareeb 1.1140), jo kisi bhi significant upward movement ke liye ceiling ka kaam karta hai. Agar mojooda trend jaari rahe to EUR/USD bearish reversal ka shikaar ho sakta hai, jis mein 2024 ke naye lows establish ho sakte hain aur 1.0600 ke neeche bhi gir sakta hai.

Is ke ilawa, investors bhi cautious taur par geopolitical aur monetary developments par nigaah daal rahe hain jo currency pair ko influence kar sakte hain. Ukraine mein jaari jung global economic growth par uncertainty ka saya daal rahi hai, jo risk sentiment aur currency valuations ko mutasir karne ki sambhavna hai. Is ke alawa, central bank policies, khaas kar ECB aur Federal Reserve ke upcoming interest rate decisions, ko bhi nazdeek se dekha ja raha hai kyunki yeh Euro aur US Dollar ke value par sakht asar daal sakte hain.
Sab se bada event Friday ke liye taayyar hai, jisme PMI data releases shamil hain. Sab nigahein Eurozone aur US ke manufacturing aur service sectors ke sehat par hogi. Estimates ke mutabiq European manufacturing aur services PMI mein thoda sa izafa ki ummeed hai, jabke US mein dono sectors mein girawat ki aas hai

ka intezar ho sakta hai. Market participants aksar bade trades karne se pehle rok jate hain jab significant data releases ka intezar hota hai, taake market ke galat side par na phans jayein. Misal ke tor par, agar GDP growth, employment figures, ya inflation data jaise key economic indicators jald release hone wale hain, to traders aksar in reports ka intezar karte hain taake unhein market ka wazeh rukh mil sake. Isi tarah, agar central banks ke upcoming statements ya policy decisions hone wale hain, to yeh bhi market movements par bara asar dal sakte hain. Aise scenarios mein, market aam tor par khamosh rehta hai jab tak traders in critical information ka intezar karte hain.Ek aur mumkin sabab jo aaj ki inakti ko contribute kar sakta hai wo broader market sentiment aur overall investor caution ho sakta hai. Kabhi kabhi low volatility aur lack of movement broader sense of uncertainty ya risk aversion ko reflect karte hain jo market participants ke darmiyan hota hai. Yeh un waqt mein ho sakta hai jab geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, ya bade global events ke lead-up mein ho. Jab investors ko future direction ke baray mein shak hota hai, to wo aksar wait-and-see approach apnate hain, jo subdued trading activity ko janam deta hai.Technically, initial movement ke baad 1.0700 level par lack of follow-through ko bhi market ka ek breather lena kaha ja sakta hai. Yeh tab hota hai jab price ek significant level par pohanchti hai lekin aage barhne ki momentum nahi hoti. Aise cases mein, market consolidation phase mein enter hota hai jahan yeh narrow range mein trade karta hai jab buyers aur sellers ek dusre ko balance karte hain. Yeh consolidation market cycle ka ek healthy hissa hota hai, jo next significant move se pehle energy accumulate karne ka moka deta hai.Aage dekhte hue, kal ka trading session ziada wazeh information de sakta hai. Yeh current pause wakai temporary ho sakta hai, aur market anticipated data ya events ke baad apni movement resume kar sakta hai. Traders ko vigilant rehna chahiye aur new developments par nazar rakhni chahiye jo market ke direction ke baray mein clearer insights provide kar sakti hain.Akhir mein, aaj ka din market mein ek inactive din tha, jo initial movement ke baad lack of further development se characterized tha. Yeh inactivity upcoming economic data, central bank announcements, broader market sentiment, ya ek technical consolidation phase ki wajah se ho sakti hai. Kal ka trading session ziada wazeh information de sakta hai, aur traders ko alert rehna chahiye taake kisi bhi emerging opportunities ko capitalize kar sakein. Market developments ko closely monitor karte hue aur adaptable rehkar, traders periods of inactivity ko navigate kar sakte hain aur next significant move ke liye ready reh sakte hain

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair

1 hour chart




Aaj, jodi ki keemat 1 ghante ki chart par bearish price channels ke andar trading shuru hui, jo keemat kee gai hai, jo kee aakhri do trading dinon kee keemat kee disha ka pratinidhitv kartee hai. Keemat ne mid-channel lines se samarthan praapt kiya, aur oopar ki disha mein, isne channels ko oopar todkar kaamyaabi hasil ki, aur ab keemat haftawarik pivot level 1.0708 se samarthan se samana kar rahi hai, jo din bhar ke dauran keemat kee disha ka nirdhaarit karega. Agar keemat haftawarik pivot level ko todati hai aur isse oopar ek ghante tak trade karti hai, to aap kharidne ke lie pravesh kar sakte hain. Lakshya star haftawarik pratirodh star 1.0744 ke neeche nirdhaarit kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise hi bechne ki avsar ki baat hoti hai, jab keemat haftawarik pivot level ke saath ek keemat chhati banati hai, aur 1 ghante ka mombati channels ke andar se firse band hone ke baad bechne ke liye sambhav hai. Arthik paksh par, Europeey raajneetik chintaon ke daayre mein aur bankon ke niti ke bhavishya mein bhinnata ke roshni mein, jodi ki keemat teesre saptahik haar kee disha mein badh rahi hai, jis ka kuch hissa june mein arthik survey mein nirasha janak ho gaya tha, jo june mein arthik tezi ke fade hone ka pradarshan kiya tha. Arthik calendar ke natijon ke anusaar... Standard & Poor's Global ne apne Purchasing Managers' Index survey ke anusaar Eurozone ki arthik sudhar mein ek pichakapan aaya hai. Mool samaveshan PMI padhne mein 50.8 tha, jo May mein 52.2 se kam tha aur anuman se 52.5 se kam tha. Udyog kshetr 45.6 mein sthit tha (apeksha: 47.9, pichhla: 47.3). Sevaon mein arthavyavastha ke aage badhne par samarthan diya ja raha hai, jo 52.6 par tha (apeksha: 53.5, pichhla: 53.2). Europeey Central Bank ki neeti ke bhavishya ke sambandh mein... nai mahangai se samarthan ke khatre ka khatra hai ki Europeey Central Bank ko byaz daro par laachar rahna chahiye, aisa Executive Board sadasya Isabel Schnabel ne kaha. "Ham naye kimat chhaton se dhamaka ho sakta hai," Schnabel ne Kiel, Germany mein Ravivar ko samman samaroh mein kaha. "Isliye ham chaukanna hain aur pahle se ek thos kimat ka rasta prastut nahi kiya hai, lekin ham data par nirbhar kar rahe hain."

EUR/ USD ke Keemat ki Tehqeeq
Aaj ka tawajjo EUR/ USD Currency pair ki keemat ke harek raftar par hai. Jab rollback ki baat ho rahi ho, to uski kamiyabi ki wajah jaanchne mein qabil-e-gaur hai. Dollar ki bunyadiyat itni muzir nahi hain ke woh har raste mein rukawat banein. Iska matlab hai ke agar koi khaas girawat pattern mumkin hai, to uski durustgi ke liye iski dor-e-mustasna bhi mumkin hai. Chaliye dekhte hain ke yeh manzar kaisa hai. Main euro pairs ki mazeed tafseel mein nahi jaunga jo euro ko ooper le jane ke liye muhlik hain, kyunke yeh harekatein EUR/USD ke bullish rukh par munhasir hain. Jab EUR/USD ko urooj hasil hota hai, to dusre pairs bhi isi rukh ko apnate hain. Is tarah, mojooda intizam kuch euro pairs ke liye munasib nazar aata hai, aur EUR/USD ki taraf se aik dhamaka sab kuch ko bullish rukh mein le ja sakta hai. Agar bullish taqat apne pullback sudhar ko execute karein aur qeemat dincharya ke 1.07305 darje par ruk jaye, jahan tak trading mein stagnation hai, to yeh manzar bullish kamzori ko zahir kar sakta hai aur shorts ke liye aik dakhli nukta ke taur par kaam aayega. Europe currency ko bunyadi aur takneeki madad ki zaroorat hai takay euro mein naye urooj ki imkanat kam ho. Is tarah, trading EUR/USD pair ke liye farokht par tawajjo deni chahiye. Bazaar ke haqiqat ke mutabiq ek strategy ko follow karte hue trading kamyab aur munafa bakhsh ban jati hai.

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Is ke ilawa, agar qeemat dincharya ke darje se guzar jaye aur aik thora sa ooper ke andarai darje par ruk jaye, to yeh point shorts ke liye dakhli nukta ke tor par bhi liya ja sakta hai. Yahan ahmiyat ka markazi mudda stop loss level hai. Rukh asal mein zyada tar neechay hai. Jabke pullback mumkin hai, takneeki tehqeeq isharat deti hai ke yeh 1.0639-1.0600 quote range se zahir hona chahiye, jis se ek sudhar ke liye isharat mil jati hai. Is tarah, bearish trading abhi mashroot hai. Bunyadi tehqeeq bhi dikhati hai ke EUR/USD pair mein girawat hai, jab ke eurozone ki maashi sehat United States ke peechay reh gayi hai, jo farokht ko support karta hai. Forex market ke shirkat daron mein bhi bearish trend wazeh hai. Chaar ghantay ke pimay par RSI indicator 50/70 range ke andar movement dikha raha hai, jo tajarbat karne walon mein neechay ki taraf tawajjo ko zahir karta hai. Alligator indicator ke mutabiq MA moving lines neechay rukh par hain. Isliye sirf farokht ke liye hidayat di jati hai.

EUR/USD TRADING DISCUSSION
Daily Timeframe Outlook:

Aaj market ne choti si gap ke saath khuli, jo ab close ho chuki hai aur Asian session mein buyers Friday ki daily range ke close par positions hold kar rahe hain. Aaj ke liye mera khayal hai ke qareebi support level jo mere markings ke mutabiq 1.06675 par hai, wahan se price ka movement shuru ho sakta hai. Jaise ke main pehle bhi keh chuka hoon, is support level ke paas do scenarios ho sakte hain.

Pehla scenario yeh hai ke ek turning candle bane aur price ka upward movement shuru ho. Agar yeh plan kaam karta hai, to main umeed karta hoon ke price resistance level 1.08522 tak pohonchegi. Agar price is resistance level ke upar fix ho jati hai, to phir mujhe further northward movement ki umeed hai, jo ke resistance level 1.09160 ya 1.09812 tak ja sakti hai. In resistance levels ke paas main trading setup banne ka intezar karunga jo trading ki future direction ka pata dega.

Ek aur option yeh hai ke price door ka northern target jo ke 1.11393 par hai, tak ja sakti hai, lekin yeh sab depend karega news background aur price ka reaction pe. Agar aaj price 1.06675 support level ko test karte hue consolidate kar leti hai aur further south move hoti hai, to main umeed karta hoon ke price 1.06011 support level ki taraf move karegi.

Main is support level ke paas bullish signals ki talash karunga, upward price movement ke resumption ki umeed mein. Aaj ke liye mujhe locally kuch khaas interesting nazar nahi aa raha. Overall, mujhe umeed hai ke northern movement resume ho sakti hai, isliye main qareebi support levels se bullish signals dekh raha hoon.

EUR/USD Pair ka Technical Analysis
1 Ghante ka Chart




Aaj, pair ki price 1-ghante ke chart pe bearish price channels ke andar trading se shuru hui, jo ke pichle do trading dinon ke doran price movement ki direction ko represent karti hai.
Price ko mid-channel lines se support mila, aur upward direction me isne channels ko break karne me kamiyab hui. Ab price ko weekly pivot level 1.0708 se resistance ka samna hai, jo ke aaj ke din ke doran price direction ka tayyun karega.
Agar price weekly pivot level ko break karke ek ghante tak upar trade karti hai, to aap buy kar sakte hain. Target level weekly resistance level 1.0744 ke neeche tay kia ja sakta hai.
Sell karne ka moka tab hai jab price weekly pivot level ke sath ek peak banati hai, aur phir se channels ke andar ek ghante ki candle close hone par sell kar sakte hain.
Economic side pe, European political anxiety aur central banks ki policy ke future me divergence ki wajah se, pair ki price ne lagatar teesre haftay loss ki taraf rukh kiya, jo ke June me economic momentum ke kamzor hone wale survey se bhi asar andaz tha.
Economic calendar ke natayej ke mutabiq, Standard & Poor’s Global ne kaha ke Eurozone economy ke Purchasing Managers’ Index survey ne dikhaya ke “economic recovery ne second quarter ke akhir me ek setback dekha.” Composite PMI reading 50.8 thi, jo ke May me 52.2 se neeche aur consensus estimate 52.5 se bhi neeche thi. Manufacturing sector contraction territory me 45.6 pe raha (Expect: 47.9, Pre: 47.3). Services ne economy ko drive karte hue expansion 52.6 pe dikhaya (Expect: 53.5, Pre: 53.2).
European Central Bank ki policy ke future ke hawale se, naye inflationary shocks ka risk matlub European Central Bank ko interest rates pe flexible rehna padega, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel ke mutabiq. “Hamein naye price shocks ka khatra ho sakta hai,” Schnabel ne Kiel, Germany me awards ceremony ke doran kaha. “Isi liye hum alert hain aur pehle se kisi fixed price path ke liye commit nahi hue, balki hum data pe rely kar rahe hain.”

Pair ne lagatar pressure ka samna kiya, aur European trading session ke doran 1.0670 ke qareeb raha, jo ke lagatar doosre din decline ko darshata hai. Yeh downturn European Central Bank ke taraf se June meeting mein interest rates ko 25 basis points tak kam karne ke baad aaya, jo ke market forecasts ke mutabiq tha. Pehle ke predictions ke bawajood, ECB ke is qadam ne July mein immediate rate cut ka ishara nahi diya, jis se Euro aur USD ke darmiyan interest rate differential stable raha aur Euro ko Dollar ke mukablay mein kuch support mila.
Mixed Economic Signals Jo Market Sentiment Ko Asar Andaz Kar Rahe Hain:

Aakhri data ne Average Hourly Earnings mein notable izafa dikhaya, jo ke wage inflation ka ek ahem measure hai, aur yeh 4.1% year-on-year tak barh gaya. Yeh pehle ke expectations 3.9% aur previous figure 4.0% (jo ke 3.9% se revised upward hui thi) se zyada tha. Monthly wage growth bhi forecasts se better perform kiya, 0.4% expand hui against anticipated 0.3% aur former reading 0.2%. Yeh figures sustained inflation ke concerns ko fuel kar rahe hain, jo ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke timeline ke market expectations mein sharp reassessment ka sabab ban rahe hain. US Non-Farm Payrolls report ke baad, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq September mein rate cut ki likelihood 68% se kam hoke 54.4% reh gayi hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ko pivotal levels ka samna hai. Agar 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.0786 ke neeche breach hota hai to yeh bearish trend ki taraf shift ka signal ho sakta hai. Wahi, agar key resistance level 1.0919 ke upar rebound hota hai to yeh pair ko March 21 ke high qareeb 1.0951 aur psychological barrier 1.1000 tak propel kar sakta hai.





Near-term trajectory uncertain nazar aa rahi hai, jahan pair support ko test kar raha hai 50-day EMA ke qareeb approximately 1.0770. 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) weakening momentum ko reflect kar raha hai, 40.00-60.00 range mein hover kar raha hai, jo ke previous upside momentum mein temporary pause suggest karta hai.

EUR/USD Friday ke din apni position barqarar rakhne mein koshish kar raha hai aur 1.0700 ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jab ke Thursday ko negative territory mein close hua tha. Agar 1.0670 ka support level toot jata hai, to ye pair aur zyada gir sakta hai. Market mein risk aversion ne Thursday ko US dollar (USD) ko rally karne mein madad di, jiski wajah se EUR/USD mein mazeed nuqsan hote gaye. Germany aur eurozone se disappointing PMI data ne euro ko support milne mein mushkilat peda ki, jiski wajah se Friday subah ke waqt euro ko mushkil ka samna tha. Germany ka HCOB composite PMI June mein 50.6 pe aa gaya, jo May mein 52.4 tha, jab ke eurozone ka HCOC composite PMI 50.8 pe aa gaya jo May mein 52.2 tha. Ye dono figures analysts ki expectations se neeche the, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke private sector business activity dheere dheere grow kar rahi hai. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, jo ke Hamburger Commerzbank ke chief economist hain, ne kaha: "PMI survey results ke madad se, HCOB PMI ECB ko July mein interest rates dobara kam karne ka koi reason nahi deta."



Dusri taraf, S&P Global dosri half mein US manufacturing aur services PMIs ke preliminary data publish karega. Agar US PMI report expectations se zyada strong hoti hai, to US dollar weekend mein bhi strong rah sakta hai, jiski wajah se EUR/USD mazeed gir sakta hai. Wagarna, agar manufacturing ya services PMI data mein bohot zyada kami hoti hai, to dollar ke gains limit ho sakte hain.

Aaj EU par negative flow barqarar tha, magar Euro ka girawat kaafi kamzor tha. Mujhe lagta hai ke iski wajah yeh hai ke US ka 3-day weekend hai, aur overall pair pehle hi significant drop dekh chuka hai. Iss liye, ab correction build karne ke liye kuch waqt darkar hai. Aaj US se positive news bhi aayi thi, magar market ne usko bhi nazarandaz kiya, aur dollar mein zyada increase nahi hua. Mujhe lagta hai ke wajahein wohi hain; pair ko girne aur dollar ko upar jaane ke liye waqt darkar hai. Shaayad agle hafte ke beech mein humein yeh pata chalega ke kab aur kis level se girawat dobara shuru hogi. Technical standpoint se bhi wahi baat hai. Yeh unclear hai ke hum current levels se girenge, minimum target 1.06 hoga, ya phir pair 1.0760 pe correct karega aur uske baad upar jaane ke baad girawat hogi. Mere paas is sawal ka jawab nahi hai; dono scenarios possible hain. Jab tak pair upward channel ko 4-hour chart pe break nahi karta, mein pair ke rise ko consider nahi kar raha. Magar abhi ke liye, yeh soch bhi nahi sakte. Trading trend ke mutabiq honi chahiye, jahaan har shaks decide kare wahan sell kare.

Euro ko Friday ko New York trading mein kaafi selling pressure ka samna karna para, jo ke kamzor economic data aur siyasi tensions ka nateeja tha. Eurozone se disappointing preliminary PMI figures ne economic growth mein slowdown ka ishara diya. S&P Global ke HCOB PMI report ne bataya ke composite PMI June mein 52.2 se gir kar 50.8 pe aagaya, jo ke investors ke expectations ke mutabiq 52.5 pe pohanchna chahiye tha. Jabke ab bhi expansion territory mein hai 50.0 se upar, magar ye momentum loss ko show karta hai. Report ne manufacturing mein contraction aur service sector ki growth ko pichle mahine ke muqablay mein slow dikhaya.
Euro ke masail mein mazeed izafa France ke siyasi uncertainties ne kiya, jo ke Eurozone ki second-largest economy hai. Investors is baat se pareshaan the ke upcoming legislative elections mein Marine Le Pen ki National Rally (RN) party ki potential jeet financial crisis ko janam de sakti hai. RN ki policies, jismein retirement ages ko kam karna, energy prices ko reduce karna, aur public spending ko barhawa dena shamil hain, fiscal responsibility par concerns raise karti hain.




Monetary policy ke hawale se, European Central Bank (ECB) ka stance bhi Euro ki struggles mein izafa kar raha hai. ECB ne is saal June mein pehli dafa interest rates cut kiye, magar investors ko abhi bhi yeh pata nahi ke kitne aur cuts planned hain. ECB aur Dutch bank ABN Amro ne market uncertainty ko tasleem kiya, aur expectations range mein 1 se 2 additional cuts ki umeed hain is saal. In headwinds ki wajah se, EUR/USD pair key support level 1.0700 ke neeche gir gaya. Yeh Euro ko major support levels ko dobara revisit karne ki potential pe rakh raha hai.

Technical picture bhi bearish nazar aa rahi hai. Price ka 200-day moving average (jo ke karib 1.0800 pe hai) ke neeche girna long-term outlook ko doubt mein dalta hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) pehli dafa do mahine mein 40.00 ke neeche chala gaya, jo ke downside momentum mein significant shift ko indicate karta hai.

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD ke weekly time frame chart ko dekhen, toh guzishta haftay ka trading downward direction mein move karte nazar aya. Is se yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke pichle haftay ka EUR/USD trading seller camp ke control mein raha. Yeh weakening movement agle haftay ke trading pe asar dal sakta hai, isliye EUR/USD currency pair mein trading karte waqt ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

Agar pichle haftay ke EUR/USD price movement process ko dekha jaye, toh currency pair jo 1.0705 pe open hua tha, woh 1.0762 ke highest trading price ko maintain nahi kar saka. Jab price ne highest level ko hit kiya, toh EUR/USD currency pair pressure mein aakar weaken ho gaya. Downward movement tab tak continue hui jab tak price ne 1.0672 ka lowest trading level touch nahi kiya. Is ke baad EUR/USD strengthen hota gaya aur akhir mein trading 1.0692 pe close hui.




H4 timeframe pe EUR/USD price movement process ko kuch is tarah dekha ja sakta hai:

EUR/USD Timeframe H4

Reviewing the EUR/USD price movement in the H4 timeframe, 21st candlestick chart pe ek interesting candlestick pattern dekhne ko mila, jise Bearish Marubozu candlestick kehte hain. Yeh candlestick pattern price ko downward move karne ki potential rakhta hai, toh agar 1.0717 pe sell position open ki jaye, toh 30 pips ya us se zyada ka profit hasil kiya ja sakta hai.

Transaction position open karte waqt 100 pips ka Stop Loss lagana aur Take Profit ko target karna zaroori hai. Risk Ratio ke hisaab se yeh kam profitable lag sakta hai, magar agar transaction ka Winning Rate high probability rakhta hai, toh is mein koi harj nahi.

Agle Hafte ke EUR/USD Trading Transactions ke Liye Recommendations

Overall aur ongoing EUR/USD market conditions ko dekhte hue, Ajeng4x kehta hai ke sell option ko agle hafte ke trading ke liye consider karna chahiye. Magar transaction execute karte waqt sahi momentum ka wait karna behtar hoga, jaise ke small time frame pe ek valid bearish candlestick pattern ka zahoor. Iss tarah ke momentum ka wait karke, quality transactions hasil ki ja sakti hain, jo ke ideal risk reward calculations aur achi winning rate probability rakhti hain.

Transaction decisions lete waqt nearest support aur resistance levels ko zaroor dekhna chahiye. Support resistance level ko measure karne ke liye Bollinger Bands, Moving Average, Horizontal Line indicators ya Psychological price levels ka istemal kiya ja sakta hai, depending on traders' point of view in applying technical analysis, jo samajhne mein asan ho.

Is consideration ke saath, agar price nearest support area mein rejection pattern show karta hai, toh buy transaction option instantly carry out kiya ja sakta hai. Magar agar support area mein breakout pattern nazar aata hai, toh buy transaction plan ko dobara sochna chahiye. Kyunki forex market mein price movements dynamic hote hain aur unexpected direction mein reverse ho sakte hain.

Isliye, abhi se risk calculations ke liye tayar rehna chahiye, taake trading plan ke mutabiq necessary actions le sakein. Is tarah, agar market unpredictably move karta hai, toh losses jo incur honge, woh measurable honge aur risk limits ke mutabiq honge jo pehle se tayar kiye gaye hain.

Naye trading haftay ki shuruat kartay hue, EUR/USD pair mein bullish rebound ki alamaat nazar aa rahi hain, jo Monday ki Asian session se shuru hui. Pair 1.0710 k qareeb trade ho raha hai, jo kuch der pehle 1.0715 ke qareeb tha, jismain U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ki kamzori ka bhi kirdar hai.

EUR/USD ke fundamentals:

Euro ko halat ko le kar mushkilat ka samna hai EU Parlimentary elections ki wajah se, jo market mein uncertainty aur instability laaye hain. Elections ne parliament mein hulchul macha di hai, jis se policymaking ke qareeb qareebi khatray paida hue hain aur Euro par dabao bhi aaya hai. Is haftay EU ke liye economic calendar relatively light hai, jismain sirf Wednesday ko Final German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures ki release noteworthy event hai. Is doran, broader markets Federal Reserve (Fed) ke rate decision aur Fed ki interest rate projections ki dot plot summary par tawajjo mojood hai.

Chaaron ghantay ki time frame technical outlook:

Pair ne do dinon ki girawat ka samna kiya hai, 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 1.0801 par tha, se neeche chala gaya hai. Is girawat ne pair ko 2024 ke peak bids se descending trendlines ke qareeb le aaya hai jo 1.1141 ke qareeb hain. Ab pair 1.0750 ke qareeb tawajjo ke darmiyan hai, Jumeraat ke 1.0721 level se tezi se girne ke baad. Agar mojooda trend jari rahe, to market 1.0700 handle ke upar consolidate hone aur potential rebound dekh sakta hai.

Yeh samajhne mein madad milti, kisi bhi aur sawal ke liye bataye.

Pair ka lamba tajzia negativ ho gaya hai jab wo 100-day EMA ke neeche gir gaya hai, jo taqreeban 1.0785 par trade ho raha hai. Is girawat ko barhane wala hai 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka numayan girao, jo tiz se 40.00 tak chala gaya hai. Is level se neeche saaf tor par girna, mazeed bearish momentum ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo mazeed downside ki alamat hai.