Gold

Ek mouqa hai sell karne ka jo main direction ke khilaf hai aur ye aglay ek ghantay mein hosakta hai. Iska base linear regression channel hai jo neeche ki taraf reverse ho gaya hai. Halanki, behtar ye hoga ke hum sell ko skip karein ya H1 channel mein reversal ka intezar karein. Lekin, jab ke market kabhi kabar H1 trend ke khilaf bhi ja sakti hai, jise hum pehlay se nahi jaan sakte, is liye M15 channel ke signals pe kaam karna sahi lagta hai kyun ke iska direction sell ko support kar raha hai. Sales 2499.27 ke level se dekhi ja sakti hain. Yahan sellers ki positions hain jo shayad apni positions ko actively defend karenge. Agar price is level ke upar chali jati hai, toh yeh bullish interest ka nishan hoga, jo ke sellers ko market se nikaalne ki koshish kar raha hoga. Is ka matlab hoga ke M15 channel bhi upar ki taraf reverse hoga aur H1 channel ke main direction ko follow karega. Mein sales ko tab dekhoonga jab ek reversal pattern form ho ke 2488.93 tak aayega. Yehi wo main channel hai jo meri system mein current upward trend ko define karta hai. Lekin yeh trend ab weak ho raha hai due to bearish interference jo M15 chart pe dekhne ko mil rahi hai, jahan linear regression channel south ki taraf directed hai. Is liye, yeh mumkin hai ke bullish trend kamzor ho aur neeche ki taraf jaye. Is ke liye zaroori hoga ke price 2488.93 ke qareeb bullish position ke neeche hold karein. Yahan bears price ko neeche dhakailne ki koshish kar rahe hain. H1 channel ke bottom ke qareeb mein buy karne ke opportunities dhoondhoonga. Lekin pehle mein chahunga ke downward movement khatam ho ya 2488.93 ke level se koi opposite reaction aaye. Us ke baad mujhe umeed hai ke price channel ke top 2529.05 tak recover karegi. Hourly chart pe indicator buy signal show kar raha hai, lekin abhi tak activate nahi hua. Lekin aakhri bullish candle par Bollinger Bands narrow hone lagi hain, jo ke north ki taraf further movement ko limit kar rahi hain. Is liye, aaj ke din south ki taraf movement dekhne ka imkaan hai. Four-hour chart pe indicator sell signal dikha raha hai, lekin abhi tak activate nahi hua, aur pair middle Bollinger Band ke ird gird move kar raha hai. Yahan bulls aur bears ke darmiyan sakht laraai ho rahi hai. Iske ilawa, is time frame par pichlay chaar hafton se consolidation ho rahi hai jo ke technical tor par direction mein tabdeeli aur signal ke cancel hone ka sabab ban sakti hai. Is liye, abhi tak mein neutral hoon, north ki taraf dekhnay ka nahi soch raha, aur south ki taraf dekhna bhi thoda jaldi hoga.

Gold ki qeemat $2500/oz par wapis aayi hai jab ke ek lambi intezar ke baad retracement jo Thursday ki US session mein hui thi. Ek majmooiat me mazboot US Dollar, barhti hui US Yields aur Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein address se pehle profit-taking ne isme kirdar ada kiya. Market ke shirakatdar apne aap ko Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke intehai intezar kiye gaye speech ke liye position kar rahe the. Bohat logon ki umeed thi ke Powell September ke rate cuts ko confirm karega, magar Wednesday ko US jobs data mein downward revision ke baad, market ke shirakatdar samajhte hain ke September mein rate cut ek faisla shuda baat hai. Ab sawal yeh hai ke Powell ke remarks ka market par kya asar hoga?
Jis tarah halat hain, US Dollar ki kamzori aur pichlay hafte ke akhri din par Gold ki barhati hui qeemat is baat ki nishani hai ke September ke rate cut ke bare mein aksar umeedain shayad pehle se hi price mein shamil hain. Bohat se Fed policymakers ne kal yeh tasdeeq ki ke woh September mein rate cuts ko support karte hain aur iske bawajood Gold US session mein struggle karta raha. Yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke September ka rate cut shayad hissa ban chuka hai?

Yeh mera sochna hai Powell ke remarks se pehle aur isliye mujhe uske speech ka asar par shak hai.

Aaj aur bhi bohat se Federal Reserve policymakers ka docket par hona darshata hai ke volatility abhi bhi card par hai. Magar direction ke hawale se, mein Powell ke remarks se koi khaas tabdeeli ki umeed nahi rakhta. Mein kisi bhi 50 bps cut ke zikr par tawajju doonga jo ke kuch din pehle market mein favour mein price ho raha tha. Filhal, futures mein 100 bps se thori kam cuts ka price lag raha hai jo 2024 ke akhir tak hoga.

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

Technical standpoint se dekha jaye to Gold mein European session mein rebound kaafi impressive raha hai jab ke precious metal ne $2500/oz handle par peak kar liya. Kal ka dip shayad ek precursor tha jis ne bulls ko reload karne diya aur dusron ko behtar price par entry lene di.

Yeh shayad aaj subha ke recovery ke speed ko wazeh kar sakta hai jab ke Fed Chair Powell stage par anay wala hai.

Kal ka bada bearish engulfing candle ne support talash ki 2472 ke key area par, phir buyers ne wapas aake price ko uper push kiya. Mein Monday se hi aise pullback ka intezar kar raha tha jab ke gold ne $2500/oz mark par high ground hold kiya tha.

Given ke Gold continue karta hai print karna ATH, aakhri key levels talash karna mushkil ho raha hai. Aaj ke US session mein foran resistance ho sakta hai 2514

sony ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi

Gold ke price mein pichle trading week ke doran girawat ka silsila jari raha, jo ek aur local level tak pohanch gaya. Shuru mein, price ne upar jaane ki koshish ki, aur 2358 ke level par range ke upper border ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin usay apni jagah banane mein kamiyabi nahi mili. Price ne achanak palat kar girna shuru kiya aur 2288 ke level par ruk gayi, jo ek aham support provide karta hai. Yeh aapko target area banane aur kaam jari rakhne ka moqa deta hai. Filhal, price chart zyada tar supertrend ke red zone mein hai, jo yeh darshaata hai ke sellers abhi bhi control mein hain.
Aaj ke technical analysis ke nazriye se, agar hum 4-hour chart par dekhein, toh kal shuru hone wale uptrend ke bawajood, hum dekhte hain ke 50-day simple moving average ab bhi price par upward pressure daal raha hai, jo ke iske shuruat se mutabiq hai. Support level 2318 ke upar short-term consolidation growth ka potential support karta hai, lekin bullish scenario activate karta hai. Hamein 2340 ke current trading level ka clear breakout aur sab se zaroori, key resistance level 2360 ka breakout dekhna zaroori hai, jo higher price values ka izhar karega. Agar 2360 ka breakout fail ho jaye, aur 2318 ke neeche break ho, jiska target 2272 ke kareeb ho, toh yeh bearish correction ko jari rakhne ke liye ek strong reason ho sakta hai, jisme bearish pattern ke mazeed negative asraat ho sakte hain.
Is waqt price hafte ke shuruat ke muqable mein thodi neeche hai. Critical resistance zone ko test kiya gaya aur woh higher forces ka samna kar paya, jo yeh darshaata hai ke desired downward vector relevant reh sakta hai. Price ke confirm karne ke liye, zaroori hai ke current price zone 2325 ko break kiya jaye, jo ke is waqt key resistance zone ke qareeb hai. Agar is area ka retest kiya jata hai aur is se strong rebound hota hai, toh yeh agle downward shock ka rasta banayega, jiska target 2221 aur 2188 ke darmiyan hoga. Agar resistance ko break kar ke 2358 ke reversal level ke upar move hota hai, toh yeh current scenario ke reversal ka signal hoga
Gold mein European session mein rebound kaafi impressive raha hai jab ke precious metal ne $2500/oz handle par peak kar liya. Kal ka dip shayad ek precursor tha jis ne bulls ko reload karne diya aur dusron ko behtar price par entry lene di.
Yeh shayad aaj subha ke recovery ke speed ko wazeh kar sakta hai jab ke Fed Chair Powell stage par anay wala hai.
Kal ka bada bearish engulfing candle ne support talash ki 2472 ke key area par, phir buyers ne wapas aake price ko uper push kiya. Mein Monday se hi aise pullback ka intezar kar raha tha jab ke gold ne $2500/oz mark par high ground hold kiya tha.
Given ke Gold continue karta hai print karna ATH, aakhri key levels talash karna mushkil ho raha hai

Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya. Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye

2514.00 ke opening level aur 2488.00 ke daily Pivot level se upar trade kar raha hai. Leading indicators bullish trend ko suggest karte hain, kyun ke price MA72 trend line se upar hai, jahan volume aam tor par unload hota hai. Agar price 2517.00 ko cross kar jata hai, toh main mazeed growth ki tawaqo karta hoon jo 2525.00 tak ja sakti hai, aur shayad 2531.00 tak bhi pohanch jaye.
Lekin agar price 2517.00 se neechay chali jati hai, toh main yeh expect karta hoon ke yeh 2514.00 tak niche aasakti hai, aur shayad 2507.00 tak bhi ja sake. Pair monthly Pivot level 2415.00 (jo ke pehle 2332.00 tha), weekly Pivot level 2507.00, aur daily Pivot level 2488.00 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ko indicate karta hai. Agar price weekly Pivot level 2507.00 ke niche chali jaye, toh correction ho sakta hai; lekin agar yeh level ke upar rehati hai, toh yeh mazeed upward movement ko indicate karta hai, aur 2517.00 pe critical resistance level ek confident climb ko confirm karne ke liye important hai.

Gold market overall stability show kar raha hai, aur ek continued upward trajectory dekhi ja rahi hai. Aaj market ne pehle hi 2518.00 ke qareeb targets achieve kar liye hain, aur trading abhi bhi is level ke upar ho rahi hai. Yeh worth noting hai ke Gold demand mein rehta hai, chahe dollar strength gain karne ki koshish kar raha ho, jo ke Gold ke primary safe-haven asset hone ko reaffirm karta hai. Halanki main abhi sidelines par hoon, lekin market naye highs ko touch karega. Lekin agar 2530.00 ka breakout false sabit hota hai, toh main pullback ke tor par sell consider kar sakta hoon, kyun ke mere targets abhi tak undefined hain. XAU/USD pair hourly chart par uptrend mein hai, aur price 132-period moving average ke upar hai. Choti time frames par bhi price 132-period moving average ke upar close hota hai, jo is trend mein buying ke opportunities ko kholta hai. Main expect karta hoon ke price 2514.00 tak pull back karegi, us ke baad buying opportunities nazar a sakti hain. Warna, agar price 2469.00 ke niche settle hoti hai, toh sell scenario relevant ban jata hai. Hourly chart par uptrend mein buying priority rehni chahiye.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya. Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya. Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye. tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya

technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai. Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, special labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain Technical perspective se dekha jaye to gold price ne temporary pullback experience kiya hai. RSI index fading upward momentum dikhata hai, jo ke short-term correction ki nishani hai. Agar gold prices $2,483 level se neeche girti hai, to yeh signal ho sakta hai ke prices mazid gir ke $2,450 aur 50-day simple moving average $2,414 tak ja sakti hain. Dusri taraf, agar gold prices mazid strong hoti hain, to $2,531 ka retest aur phir $2,550 aur $2,600 ka challenge bhi mumkin hai. Lekin overall direction ab bhi economic factors, geopolitical developments, aur market sentiment par depend karegi. H4 chart par ek interesting triangular pattern dekha ja sakta hai jisme downside break hua hai. Yeh breakout ke guidance ke mutabiq, gold prices mein $60–$70 ka drop ho sakta hai

Trading ke hawale se, US 10-year Treasury yield 4.45% ke kareeb hai, jo ke mahine mein sabse ooncha level hai. Monday ko, US dollar pressure mein tha jab ke American manufacturing activity mein tez downtrend ne Federal Reserve ke interest rates cut karne ke maqoliyat ko mazid barhawa diya. Forex trading mein, US dollar ne kuch nuqsaan euro, British pound, aur Australian dollar ke muqable mein reverse kiya, jab ke New Zealand dollar, yuan, aur yen ke muqable mein apni taqat barqarar rakhi. Japanese currency ne 38 saalon ka sabse neecha level chhoda, jab ke carry trades mazid support ho rahe hain. Gold market par doosra asar US 10-year Treasury yields ka tha jo ek mahine ke high ke kareeb hai. Trading ke hawale se, Tuesday ko US 10-year Treasury bonds yield 4.44% ke kareeb aa gaya, lekin abhi bhi ek mahine ke high ke kareeb tha, jab ke pichlay haftay ke debates aur Supreme Court ke faislay, jo ke pehle presidents ke liye mazeed immunity diye jane par focus thay, former President Donald Trump ke doosre term ko support karte hain. Pehle presidents ke doosre terms ko inflationary maana gaya hai, jo ke tax cuts, sakhte immigration policies, aur increased import tariffs se fueled hote hain Gold prices ko istihkam mil raha hai gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mein lagataar inflows ki wajah se. July doosra musalsal mahina tha jismein ETFs mein inflows dekhe gaye, jo aksar Europe aur Asia ke funds ki investment ki wajah se hain. Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ke semi-annual testimony ke baad, investors ab US ke June ke inflation data ke intezar mein hain, jo Thursday ko announce kiya jayega. Iske ilawa, Initial Jobless Claims aur University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ka data bhi gold ke mustaqbil ka rasta tay karne mein ahem kirdar ada karega. Fed Chair Ke Izharat US House of Representatives ke samnay apni guftagu ke dauran, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Senate committee ko diye gaye apne pehle wale izharat ko dohraya. Unhoon ne inflation ko manage karne mein kiye gaye taraqqi ko tasleem kiya, lekin ehtiyaat ka izhar karte hue kaha ke interest rates mein kami 2% inflation target ko zarur haasil nahi kar sakegi. Neechay Ki Taraf Reversal Ka Risk Aik potential risk hai ke gold prices neechay ki taraf reversal dekhain agar price pattern ka neckline $2,279 se neeche toot jaye. Is surat mein, ek conservative target $2,541 rakha jaa sakta hai

saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya. Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya. Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay

Gold Daily Time Frame:

Subah bakhair sab ko! Gold mein doosre din kuch dilchaspi ki koi baat nahi hai; GOLD ROS line ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo humein rozana candle ke tale par buland bearish volumes deta hai. Yani ke ROS line is candle ke is hisse mein sab se zyada bearish volume hai, aur is haftay tak hum isay ooper se torr nahi sakte. Takneeki tor par, hum is fairly wide resistance zone ke andar trade kar rahe hain jo haftay ke bearish Pin bar ke tale par banaya gaya hai. By the way, is haftay ke pattern ki yeh soorat-e-haal ab bhi zinda hai. Sirf yeh cheez bearish hai ke basement, jo humein ooper se re-zone se bechne ke liye signal deta hai. Aur GOLD ke mukhtalif chart par humein uncertainty hai, lekin yeh bas meri raaye hai aur iski tasveer neeche di gai hai.



Gold H4 Time Frame:



Mood abhi sahi hai, jo bhi sasti cheezon ko khareedne ke liye hai. Aapko seedha 2381.78 aur 2397.79 ke beech mein daakhil hona hai. Koi zyada ehtiyat aur reinsurances nahi hain. Mein faisla karta hoon ke 2397.84 par stop rakhun. Lalach se bachne ke liye, mujhe mashwara hai ke munafa 2362.37 par fix kiya jaye. Phir bhi, yeh miyaar mera stop se paanch guna bada hai. Agar aisa ho ke aaj mera plan saabit na ho, toh main teh kardunga. Kal sab kuch alag hoga, mausam bhi aur market ke charts ke movement bhi. Bure khabron ke aghaaz se behtar hai ke bilkul kaam na kiya jaye, apne raaste mein liye jane ke nuqsan se dukhi hona.

Gold ka hourly chart dekhte huye, yeh dekha gaya ke pair abhi ek uptrend mein trade kar raha hai. Is chart par head and shoulders pattern observe hua, jiske baad pair ne decline start kiya, aur right shoulder ke area tak wapis aya, jahan phir se sellers ke limits ne kaam kiya. Main yeh samajhta hoon ke decline ka silsila abhi aur bhi neeche jaari rahega. Mere khayal mein, gold medium-term mein ek correction se guzrega kyun ke US mein inflation ruk gaya hai.
Dusri taraf, mujhe yeh samajh nahi aa raha ke EUR/USD kyun rise kar raha hai. Shaayad yeh expectation ho sakti hai ke cumulative effect kaam karega, kyun ke unemployment ke kaafi releases mein izafa dekhne ko mila hai. Iske bawajood, main ab bhi gold ke decline ki tawaqqu kar raha hoon, aur samajhta hoon ke yeh levels 2422.30 tak pohanch sakta hai.
Pichle hafte ka gold ka closure ek bullish candle ke sath hua, lekin is hafte ke closing level mein thora bohot uncertainty hai, kyun ke closing level opening level ke thora upar hai, aur ek doji pattern ban raha hai jo agle movement ke direction mein uncertainty ka izhaar karta hai. Abhi ke liye yeh kehna mushkil hai ke price reversal south ki taraf hoga ya nahi, lekin short-term mein main downtrend ko hi dekh raha hoon. Filhaal, koi technical basis nahi hai short positions open karne ka. Hourly chart par indicators ne buy signal diya hai, magar yeh abhi tak activate nahi hua. Dekhna hoga ke Monday ka opening kya dikhaata hai.
4-hour chart par indicators koi khaas direction nahi dikha rahe, woh mukhtalif directions mein point kar rahe hain. Pair Bollinger Band channel ki bullish zone mein wapas aane ki koshish kar raha hai, aur agar yeh yahan consolidate karta hai, toh sales cancel ho sakti hain. Lekin mera khayal hai ke bears abhi bhi try karenge, kyun ke downtrend apna cycle complete nahi kar saka, aur target ab tak 2450 ke aas paas hai. Gold ke recent decline ko shaayad ek temporary dip samjha jaa sakta hai, jo investors ke liye buying opportunity ho sakti hai. Yeh decline shayad pichle period ke price increase ke baad profit-taking ki wajah se aaya ho. Magar overall trend ab bhi bullish hai, jo favorable economic environment aur expected monetary policy ke madad se supported hai.

Gold
Gold (XAU/USD) ki Technical Analysis
1. Current Market Condition
Gold ka pair, jo XAU/USD ke naam se bhi jaana jata hai, is waqt 1925 USD per ounce ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Gold ki price mein pichlay chand hafton mein kaafi volatility dekhi gayi hai, lekin filhal yeh ek range-bound phase mein lagta hai. Central banks ki policy decisions, inflation ki reports aur geopolitical tensions ko dekhte hue, gold traders abhi cautious hai.

2. Moving Averages ka Analysis
Gold ka 50-day moving average lagbhag 1900 USD ke aas paas hai, jo abhi ek strong support ka kaam kar raha hai. 200-day moving average 1950 USD pe hai, jo ki ek major resistance level ban gaya hai. Agar gold is 200-day moving average ke upar close karta hai, toh yeh bullish signal ho ga aur market mein upar ki taraf move ki expectation barh jaye gi. Filhal, price in moving averages ke beech trade kar rahi hai, jo market ki uncertainty ko show kar raha hai.

3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI abhi 50 ke aas paas hai, jo batata hai ke market neutral hai. Koi clear overbought ya oversold signal nahi hai, lekin agar RSI 40 ke neeche jata hai, toh gold oversold zone mein chala jayega, jo ek bounce ka signal ho sakta hai. Agar RSI 60 ke upar move karta hai, toh bullish momentum shuru ho sakta hai.

4. Support aur Resistance Levels
Immediate support 1900 USD pe hai, jo 50-day moving average ke kareeb hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh gold ki price 1880 USD tak gir sakti hai. Resistance ki baat karain toh 1950 USD ek critical level hai. Agar gold is level ke upar sustain karta hai, toh price 1980 USD tak ja sakti hai. Geopolitical news aur global economic data bhi in levels ko affect kar sakte hain.

5. Conclusion
Gold abhi ek range-bound situation mein hai, jahan price 1900 aur 1950 ke beech move kar rahi hai. Short-term traders ko support aur resistance levels pe focus karna chahiye, jab ke long-term investors ko central banks ki policies aur inflation trends pe nazar rakhni hogi. RSI aur moving averages filhal neutral position show kar rahe hain, lekin ek major breakout ka potential hamesha maujood hai.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai. Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.
Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, special labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain Technical perspective se dekha jaye to gold price ne temporary pullback experience kiya hai. RSI index fading upward momentum dikhata hai, jo ke short-term correction ki nishani hai. Agar gold prices $2,483 level se neeche girti hai, to yeh signal ho sakta hai ke prices mazid gir ke $2,450 aur 50-day simple moving average $2,414 tak ja sakti hain. Dusri taraf, agar gold prices mazid strong hoti hain, to $2,531 ka retest aur phir $2,550 aur $2,600 ka challenge bhi mumkin hai. Lekin overall direction ab bhi economic factors, geopolitical developments, aur market sentiment par depend karegi. H4 chart par ek interesting triangular pattern dekha ja sakta hai jisme downside break hua hai

Pichle tajziye ne sunehri sikkay mein ek choti si girawat ka tajwez diya tha, lekin yeh nahi hui. Filhaal, mukhya senaryo bullish hai aur kuch khaas targets hain, kyunke hourly timeframe par buy signal hai. Hourly timeframe kaafi hai kyunke 4-hour timeframe pehle se hi positive zone mein hai, moving averages ke mutabiq. Lekin, chaliye ab is metal ko weekly timeframe pe dekhte hain.
Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke hafte ka close ek aise candlestick ke sath hua jiska body chhoti hai aur wicks lambi hain. Lekin, lower wick lambi hai, jo metal mein buying interest ko darshata hai. Yeh puri tarah se clear nahi hai ke yeh buying interest high pe hai ya kya aggressive growth ki ummeed ki ja sakti hai. Behtareen yeh hoga ke local signals ko follow kiya jaye aur market jo bhi abhi aur yahan offer kar rahi hai, usi par focus kiya jaye.
Daily candlesticks dekhne par, humein growth ka preference nazar aata hai, kyunki pichle din ne ek bearish candlestick ko engulf kiya. Yeh ya to absorption ho sakta hai ya phir "gap in the clouds" kyunki candle bodies similar hain. Lekin, filhaal main strong growth ko consider nahi kar raha, sirf hourly signal ke daire mein hi soch raha hoon. Teesre chart par hourly timeframe par hamara idea hai. Bacha hua potential chhota hai, shayad aap 15-minute timeframe par entry point dekh sakte hain, kyunki hourly timeframe shayad ek entry point na de (mera andaza hai). Targets 2524.52 ke level par hain, aur potential ko blue bar se visualize kiya gaya hai. Main ek thoda gehra pullback expect kar raha tha taake long positions enter kar sakoon with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1 to 2. Lekin, sirf ek entry mila jisme risk-to-reward ratio 1 to 1 hai. Main abhi naye highs ke liye target set nahi kar raha, kyunki behtar hai ke mathematical targets ko follow kiya jaye na ke personal desires.