PakeezaBaloch Trading Journal

EUR USD Forecast!

Euro ki early American session mein trading 1.0951 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke psychological level 1.10 aur 6/8 Murray aur 21 SMA ke neeche hai.H4 chart ke mutabiq, EUR/USD downtrend channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, December 27th se.agar yeh channel tootne mein nakam ho jaye aur 1.0986 ke neeche consolidate ho, toh humein downward movement ka continuation dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Agar yeh mumkin hai toh euro 1.0900 par 200 EMA tak pahunch sakta hai, jo pair ke liye strong support hai. Agar bullish pressure bani rahe aur 1.09 ke neeche gir gaya, toh humein 1.0742 par bearish acceleration ka samna karna pad sakta hai.Dusri taraf, agar euro 1.086 (6/8 Murray) aur 1.0980 (21 SMA) ke upar break karta hai aur consolidate hota hai, toh yeh bullish cycle ka dobara shuru hone ka sanket ho sakta hai aur 1.1073 aur shayad 1.1108 (7/8 Murray) tak ja sakta hai.

Hamari strategy agle kuch ghanton ke liye euro ko 1.0986 (6/8 Murray) ke neeche bechne ki rahegi, jiska target 1.0930 aur 1.0900 (200 EMA) hoga. Eagle indicator ne December 26th se negative signal diya hai, jo ek bearish trend line ke andar trade kar raha hai aur yeh hamari bearish strategy ko support karta hai.

GBP USD Forecast!

American session ki shuruaat mein British pound 1.2692 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo 21 SMA ke upar hai aur December 26 se bane downtrend channel ke andar hai. British pound ne 1.2612 ke aas-paas strong support paya hai, jo ki December 21 ke low ke saath milta hai aur downtrend channel ke neeche tak pahuncha tha. Iske baad humne dekha ki ek technical bounce hua.

Technical chart ke mutabiq, British Pound ne downtrend channel ke top ke aas-paas strong barrier paya hai. Aane waale kuch ghanton mein, agar yeh channel test karna continue karta hai aur ise todati nahi, toh hum 1.2710 ke neeche bechne ka soch sakte hain, jiska target 1.2620 ya fir 1.2601 (200 EMA) ho sakta hai.Agar aane waale kuch ghanton mein British pound aur girta rahe aur 8/8 Murray aur 21 SMA ke neeche consolidate hota hai, toh yeh ek bearish signal ke roop mein dekha ja sakta hai aur hum 1.2650 aur 1.2601 (200 EMA) ke targets ke saath bechne ka vichar kar sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, agar British pound 1.2740 ke upar consolidate hota hai, toh hume ummeed hai ki yeh aur bhi badhega aur yeh ek buy signal ke roop mein dekha ja sakta hai, jiska target +1/8 Murray par 1.2817 ho sakta hai.Yeh dekhte hue ki British pound ek downtrend ke neeche trade kar raha hai, mukhya strategy yeh rahegi ki agar price 1.2729 ke neeche hai, toh bechne ka faisla karna chahiye, jo aaj tak ka maximum level hai, aur uska target 1.2573 (7/8 Murray) ho sakta hai.

BITCOIN FORECAST !

Bitcoin ne ek mahine se $40,746 aur $45,256 ke darmiyan trade ki hai. Isne $45,256 level ko break karne mein nakam ho gaya, aur jab hum sirf $40,746 level ki taraf girne ka intezar kar rahe the, to pair ne sirf ek ghante mein ise test kiya. Duniya ki pehli cryptocurrency ki upward trend abhi bhi barkarar hai, aur is waqt upward trend khatam hone ki koi nishani nahi hai. Is haftay main leading cryptocurrency ke solid "flights" ke bawajood, technical perspective se dekha gaya to market main kuch bhi nahi badla.

Ye malumat aayi hai ke U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sirf spot Bitcoin ETFs ki darkhwasten manzoor karne ka irada rakhti hai. Yaad hai ke "digital gold" ke qeemat is naye instrument ki manzoori ki umeedon par tajawuz karti thi. Lekin pichle din ye ilan hua ke Gary Gensler is muhim ko support nahi karte, aur unka khayal hai ke cryptocurrency sector ki tahqiqat na mukammal hai aur is se maali istehsal aur investors ko khatra hai.

Gary Gensler ne cryptocurrencyon par dair se tanqeed ki hai. Lekin wo sirf ek baahri tajaweez nahi dete, balki wo khud is sector ko regulate karne wale idare ke sarbrah hain. Isliye is industry mein bahut kuch un par munhasir hai. Yeh abhi tay ho raha hai ke ye January mein spot Bitcoin ETFs ki manzoori ka inkar hai (pehle to yeh kaha gaya tha ke January 10 ko SEC un companies ko manzoori dega jo darkhwast di hui thi) ya ye ek pura inkar hai.



D-1 Time Frame Outlook:---


Bitcoin ne relatif buland rehna hai. Upward trendline market ki bullish jazbat ko darust karti hai, aur keemat ne tohmat se bhi neeche nahi baith sakti, mazeed se $40,746 ke qareebi level ke neeche gira. Isliye abhi tak kisi correction ki baat nahi ho rahi.



24 ghante ke doran, Bitcoin ne $45,256 level tak izafah kiya lekin isne ise paar nahi kiya aur $40,746 par gir gaya, jahan se ise dobara izafah hua. Kyunki $40,746 level se bounce hua hai, is cryptocurrency ka jald hi dobara $45,256 level par izafah hoga. Keemat kuch waqt tak $40,746 - $45,256 ke darmiyan reh sakti hai. Is range ke hadood se bounce hone ko positions kholne ke liye mawafiq samjha ja sakta hai. $40,746 ke neeche consolidation, $34,267 ki taraf short positions kholne ki ijaazat degi.

EUR USD Analysis!

American session mein Euro 1.0918 ke aas-pass trade ho raha hai, 200 EMA ke upar bounce kar raha hai, aur strong bearish pressure ke baad kuch recovery dikha raha hai.Agar H4 chart 1.0901 (200 EMA) ke neeche close aur consolidate hota hai, to Euro ka aur girne ka khatra hai. Agar Euro 5/8 Murray (1.864) ke neeche gir ke consolidate hota hai, to aane wale dino mein Euro ka aur girawat ka intezaar kiya ja sakta hai, takreeban 4/8 Murray (1.0742) tak.

Dusri taraf, Non-Farm Payrolls data aane wale ghanton mein release hoga, aur yeh data Euro mein tezi se badlav laa sakta hai.Agar gold 1.09 ke upar bounce karta hai aur consolidate hota hai, to uski tezi jaari rehne ki ummeed hai, aur yeh 21 SMA tak pahunch sakta hai jo 1.0944 par hai, ya fir 6/8 Murray ke aas-pass tak ja sakta hai, jise psychological level 1.10 ke aas-pass consider kiya ja sakta hai.

H4 chart par hum symmetrical triangle pattern ka formation dekh sakte hain, aur agar 1.0930 ke upar break hota hai, to is bullish move ko confirm kiya ja sakta hai aane wale dino ke liye, aur yeh 1.1108 (7/8 Murray) tak ja sakta hai.H1 chart par eagle indicator oversold signals dikha raha hai January 03 se. Isliye jab tak yeh 200 EMA (1.09) ke upar trade karta hai, Euro mein ek recovery aur buying opportunity ki ummeed ki ja sakti hai.





USD/JPY: Up Trend

Yen dollar ke khilaf taqat haar raha hai. USD/JPY pair ne kal bhi ek tezi se trend dikhaya, jabki U.S. dollar index thoda under pressure tha. Yeh darshata hai ki pair badh raha hai na sirf (aur itna hi nahi) American currency ke majboot hone se, balki yen ke kamzor hone se bhi.Khaas taur par is haftay ke shuruat mein, USD/JPY sellers ne 140-figure mark ke aas-pass consolidate karne ki koshish ki, yaani ke multi-month lows ke paas. Iske peeche ek khaas khabar ka trigger tha -

December 27 ko, jab market band tha Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ne ek interview mein kaha ki "2024 mein negative rate policy khatam karne ke chances zero nahi hain." Uske mutabiq, regulator agle fiscal year mein mazdoori ke prospects ko dhyan se study karega (jo ki spring mein shuru hota hai), takreeban wage growth inflation mein badalne ka pata lagane ke liye.Is tarah se, USD/JPY pair ne apne growth potential ko exhaust nahi kiya hai. Chaar ghante ka chart dekhe toh price Bollinger Bands indicator ke beech mein hai, aur Ichimoku indicator ke sabhi lines ke upar hai, jo ek bullish signal "Parade of Lines" banaya hai. Tezi se badhne ka nazdiki target 145.90 mark hai (H4 ke Bollinger Bands ke upper line), aur main target bahut uncha hai, 148.80 -

GOLD FORECAST!

Jumma ke trading session mein, XAU/USD dhaatu ne ek girawat ki trend dekhi, jo kareeb $2,040 ke aspaas thi, baad mein $2,060 ke kareeb chadha. Dhaatu ne mila-jula U.S. economic data ke release ke baad volatility dikhaya, jismein ek majboot U.S. labor market par ek kamzor Service sector tha. Magar, market ne jaldi se apne dovish bets ko Federal Reserve (Fed) par dobara adjust kiya aur ab jald hi easing cycle ki shuruaat ke adhik sambhavnaon par sauda kar rahe hain.Yeh figure sirf 170,000 jobs ke consensus prediction ko paar nahi kiya balki pic.Iske vipreet, December mein Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI ne 50.6 par gira, jabki market ki aasha thi ki 52.6 ke aspaas rahega, pichle figure 52.7 ko peeche chhodte huye. Isne U.S. Dollar mein giravat ko trigger kiya, jisse session ke baaki hisse mein dhaatu ke liye downside ko roka ja sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, U.S. bond yields ek uchch pravritti par hain, jo dhaatu ko dabane mein madad kar rahi hai. 2-year rate 4.40% par trade ho raha hai, jabki 5-year aur 10-year yields 4% ke upar chadh gaye hain. Yeh kehna mushkil hai ki yields ke liye upside kitna hoga kyun ki CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, market ab Fed se pehle rate cuts par sauda kar rahe hain. Vishesh roop se, March mein 25 bps cut ke 70% ke aas-pass odds badh gaye hain. Sab kuch aane wale data par aayega, aur agle haftemein, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures ko December se release kiya jayega, jo dhaatu mein gatisheelata ko badha sakti hai.XAU/USD ke levels par nazar dalne par, daily chart mein mukhya suchakon ka manzar, kharidne aur bechne ke pressure ke beech ek santulana dikhata hai.



Relative Strength Index (RSI) flat hai, jo kharidne aur bechne ke dabav mein santulana dikhata hai, lekin iska sthal positive kshetra mein hai, jo kharidne walon ke liye ek adhikar ko darshata hai.Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) mein flat red bars hain, jo aam taur par ek bechne walon ki gati ko darshate hain. Magar, iska flat hone ka matlub stalling momentum hai, jyadatar ek pramukh bearish drishtikon nahi.Dhaatu ke sthiti ko Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) ke sambandh mein vichar karte hue, yeh 20, 100, 200-day SMAs ke upar hai, jo bada samay frame mein ek adhikarit bullish drishtikon ko darshata hai.

USD CAD Analysis!

USD/CAD pair London session mein 1.3380 ke qareeb fresh do hafton ka buland record darust kar raha hai. Loonie asset ne tez US Dollar Index (DXY) ki behtar hali aur United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report ke liye ihtiyaati market mahaul ke bawajood achi kharidari dekhi hai.Estimates ke mutabiq, December mein 170K jobs ki tajwez hai, jo November mein 199K ke mukable kam hai. Behtareen ADP Employment data, jo Thursday ko jari hua, ne labor growth ke liye musbat atmosphere paida kiya hai.

Ek behtareen US NFP report se maloom hota hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ki rate cut ki imkanat March se kam ho jayegi, kyun ke zyada jobs ki tawanai akhri hisse ki base mein inflation ko agay barqarar rakhay gi.Wahi tarah, Canadian Dollar apne mulki labor market data ke sath bhi nachayegi, jo 13:30 GMT par jari hoga. Canada ki jobless rate ko 5.9% par dekha ja raha hai, jabke pichle reading 5.8% thi.USD/CAD ne 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (jo 1 November 2023 ki high se 1.3900 se le kar 27 December 2023 ki low 1.3177 tak plot kiya gaya hai) ko paar kar liya hai jo 1.3350 par hai. 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), jo ke 1.3310 ke aas-pass hai, US Dollar bulls ko support dene ka kaam karega.



Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) ne 60.00-80.00 ke upside range mein shift kiya hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke bullish momentum ko trigger kiya gaya hai.Agar Loonie asset thoda sa 23.6% Fibo retracement ko theek kare, jo 1.3350 ke aas-pass hai, to fresh buying aayegi, jise December 18 ki buland record 1.3410 ki taraf le jayegi, is ke baad 38.2% Fibo retracement 1.3453 par hai.Dusri taraf, downside bias tab aaega agar pair 1.3180 ke neeche gir jaaye, jo ke December 28 ki kamai par hai. Is se asset ko July 25 ki kamai ke qareeb 1.3150 aur phir July 13 ki kamai ke aas-pass 1.3193 tak pohancha sakta hai.

CRUDE OIL FORECAST

2024 ki shuruaat mein, kharja aur saiasati maamlayon ke asarat ke teht, crude oil market mein numaya ihataat hui. Umeedon mein darusti ke tabdeel hony ne aam taur par global maali tajaweezon aur oil ki darkhwast ko shakhsiat di. Amreeki dollar ki mazbooti ne bhi asar dala, kyun ke ye dusre currency istemaal karne walon ke liye oil ko mehnga banata tha, jo ke international trade ko mutassir karta tha.



Saiaasi Asarat:---

Middle East ke khaas ilaqaat, khaas tor par Lal Sagar kshetra, Libya, aur Gaza Strip mein key saiaasi waqiat, is haftay market ki garamjoshiyon ka markaz bane rahe. Ye ilaqay, jo ke global oil supply chain mein ahem hain, un mein waqiyat ke baad oil supply ki mustaqil panahgoyi ke bare mein fikron ko barhaya. Market ki tareef is waqt ke waqiyat se zahir hoti hai jo oil ke prices ko saiaasi mustawazan hone ke liye munsalik karti hain.


Inventory Reports and Market Response:--

American Petroleum Institute (API) aur U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ne haftawarana inventory reports diye, jin mein U.S. crude oil stocks aur gasoline aur distillate inventories mein mukhlifat zahir hui. Crude oil stocks mein kami ke khilafat mein gasoline aur distillate stocks mein izafay ne market mein mushkilana tarraqi ka sabab bana, jab ke traders supply aur demand ke liye asarat ka andaza lagate rahe.

Price Trends and Analysis:---

Is haftay mein, oil prices mein numaya tabdeeliyan nazar aayi. Ibtidayi munazzam trend, maashiyati manaziron aur mazboot dollar ke asarat se mutasir hua, jo ke bad mein prices mein behtar hone ka jawaz diya. Haftay ke ikhtitam tak, Brent crude futures $78.76 par mukhalif $77.04 ke mukable mein, ek net izafay ke sath band hue. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures bhi izafay mein rahe, pichle haftay ke $73.81 par mukhalif $2.16 izafay ke sath mukammal hue. Ye price tabdeeliyan maashiyati isharat aur global waqiyat ke jawab mein reflect karti hain.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:---

Anay wale haftay ka bazaar dhihan taaza saiaasi halat par qaim hai, khaas kar Middle East mein. Ilmiyat mein izafay ke sabab regional jhagron mein mazeed barhty hain, jo ke oil supply routes mein mazeed tanazaat ko paida kar saktay hain, jise ke prices ko mazeed buland kar sakta hai. Dilchaspi ka markaz hone wala hai maaloomat jo interest rates aur mahangai ke mutalliq hongi, jo ke global maali nazar aur oil ki darkhwast ko shakhsiat dene mein ahem hongi.



Febraury ke shuru mein hone wali OPEC+ meeting ko bohot shiddat se intezar kiya ja raha hai, jisme shirkat dar aur investors future oil production levels ki taraf barhte hue malumat hasil karna chahte hain. Is meeting ke natijay global supply ko gehra asar dal sakti hain aur keemat ke rujhanat ko badal sakti hain.Investors aur analysts in factors ko nazdeek se moniter karenge, unke asarat ko pehchante hue jo crude oil market par mukhtalif elements ka takmeel hai. Ye mukhtalif unsoro ka jazbati mutasir hona jari rahega, jo malumat hasil karne aur apne approach mein lachar rehne ke liye zaroori hai.

Weekly Market Overview:---

SILVER FORECAST!

Pichhle haftay mein Silver ki safar mein ek numaya kamzori nazar aayi, jahan XAG/USD $23.19 par stable hui, $0.59 ya -2.51% ki kami ke saath. March Comex silver futures bhi ghate, $23.31 par band hokar, $0.78 ya -3.24% kam hui. Ye bearish trend cryptocurrency aur stocks ki taraf barhte hue market mein Silver ki kam roshni ko darust karta hai. Sone ke muqablay mein bhi, Silver ki performance kam rahi, jo metal ke investor interest mein kami ko aur zahir karti hai. Trading support aur resistance levels ke qareeb honay ka mustaqil pattern, momentum ki kami aur range-bound market ko darust karta hai.



Economic Indicators and Silver’s Response:--


Pichhle haftay ke maeeshati data ne Silver par mukhtalif asar dala. America ki mazdoori ka bazaar mustahkam tha, nonfarm payrolls ki tajaweezat ko pesh karte hue, jo Silver par neeche ki taraf dabao . Lekin, ISM services sector ka report ek mukhtalif manzara dikha raha tha, jo market ki complexity ko mazeed barha raha hai. Maeeshati isharay mein yeh farq, Silver traders ko abhi taur par mushkilat ka samna karne par majboor karta hai.Federal Reserve ki muntazir siyasi harkat Silver ke daamon mein aham kirdar ada karte hain. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq market ki umeedain dikhate hain ke March tak ek Fed rate cut hone ki 67% imkan hai. Ye umeedain aham hain kyun ke kam interest rates non-yielding assets jaise Silver ko paas rakhne ki mauqaat ko kam karti hain.

Dollar’s Impact and Global Economic Factors:--


America ke Dollar ki taqat, jaise ke dollar index ke performance ne labor data release ke baad dikhai di, bhi ek aham kirdar ada kari. Zayada taqatwar Dollar aam tor par Silver ke daamon ko kam karti hai, kyun ke ye international buyers ke liye keemat barha deti hai. Iske alawa, global maeeshati indicators, jese ke America ke factory orders aur equity market performances, bhi bara-e-maeeshat manzarnama mein hissa dalte hain, jo Silver ke daamon ko asar andaz karte hain.


Weekly Forecast and Upcoming Report:---


Aanay wale haftay Silver ke liye muqaddas hai, jahan key maeeshati reports market ke jazbat ko mutasir karne ke liye qawi tabdiliyan le sakti hain. Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Producer Price Index (PPI) reports tawajju mein hain, jin ki pehli taqreeb se lagta hai ke headline CPI mein maahana 0.3% aur core CPI mein bhi barhne ki ummid hai.Agar ye reports tawajju se mawafiq hain, to ye ek thanda inflation trend ki taraf isharaat kar sakti hain lekin phir bhi Federal Reserve ke 2% saalana hadaf se oopar hai.



Aise natijay Silver ke traders ke liye potential fluctuations ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye, jahan taqreebat aur inke Federal Reserve ke rate faislon ke liye asar kaar honge.Ikhtisaar mein, pichhle haftay Silver ki performance ko ek bearish trend ne character kiya tha mazeed maeeshati data aur mazboot America Dollar ke peechay. Aanay wale maeeshati reports, khaas kar CPI aur PPI, Silver ke short-term movements ko shape karne mein aham hongi, kyun ke ye Federal Reserve ke siyasi faislon aur is metal ke investment appeal par asar daal sakti hain.

Natural Gas Forecast!

Mashriqi Coast ko mutasir karne wale sardiyon ne U.S. Natural Gas futures ko teesri muddat tak barhne mein madad ki hai, jo ke pichle November ke akhir se nazar nahi aaye thay. Ye tezi mabadi bazaar ki asli tabdiliyon se nahi balki tajaweezi khareedari aur short-covering ki mil jul se aayi hai.


Maosam k Asarat Market Pr:---

Sardiyon ke aane se U.S. mein mausam ka mukhtalif asar hua hai. Jabke East Coast par chalne wala sardar toofan ne heating demand mein izafah ki umeedon ko barhaya hai, wahi Florida aur West Coast jaise ilaqon mein thanda mausam ne hawaa conditioning ki zarurat ko kam kar diya hai. Ye shorat term mausam ka asar ek mazhabi mausam mein hai jo aksar bazaar ko ghair mutawaqai rukh par le jata hai.

Market k Momentum Ko Follow Karne Ka Khatra!

Tijarat karne walon ke liye, khaas kar unke liye jo kam tajawuz rakhte hain, mojooda market ki upswing ek tanbeeh afreen kahani pesh karti hai. Ye bullish trend, jo sardiyon ke dair se aane par hissa hai, ne bazaar ko behad tajawuzi tor par pakad liya hai. Ulta, jo tajawuzi market ki tareekh se waqif tajawuzi tijaratkar hain, woh samajhte hain ke mojooda shorat term shirayat mausam ke liye mamooli hain. Unki mausam ke patterns ko samajhne ki gehraai, unko short-term market movements se mutasir hone wale logon par faiyda deta hai.

Market Mein Mudakhlat Ke Imkan:---

Natural gas ke prices mein is upswing mein khatra bhi hai. Agli do hafton mein mild temperatures ki basharat dene wala ek tajawuz, prices mein foran ke nizaam mein kamari kar sakti hai. Ye manazir bazaar ki idraak, khaas kar sardiyon ki badalne wali tabdiliyon mein, ki buhat ittehad se bhari hoti hai.Tijarat Ke Manhajati TadabeerSardi ke mausamon ke normal patterns ke mutabiq, tajawuzi tijaratkarain mojoodi rally ko dawat dene ki bajaye ek bechne ka moqa talash kar sakti hain. Yeh taur apne asar ko barhane wale extreme shirayat jaise 'Polar Vortex' ya mustamir thanda dabao ki taraf ishara na ho.




Looking Ahead: Caution and Strategy:--

Jabke bazaar ek aur hafta mein jata hai, short-term mausam ke reports ka jawab dene aur lambe arzi market bunyadon ko mazbooti se manana ka tawazun ahem ho jata hai.Jabke natural gas market temporary bullish nishanat dikhata hai, iske asli bearish bunyadiyat ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Tijaratkarain ko hidayati taur par ihtiyaat aur daniyat ka istemal karne ka mashwara diya jata hai, jo mausam ke dalail par barabar market ke manazir par tawajjuh dene ke bajaye fani mausam se paida hone wale price changes par dhyan dena chahiye.

Weather giveth and taketh away' ki qasam ke mutabiq, Monday ko dono taraf ki khalai ka intezar kiya ja sakta hai. Kyunki hum mojooda waqt mein ek mausami bazaar mein hain, hafti ki tasveer mein kisi bhi bara mausam ke tabdili aise ek waqea ko trigger kar sakti hai.

EUR/USD Analysis!


Euro ke chart mein, pichle saal se ek neeche ki taraf ka trend hai. 26 September se, ek correctiv wave ne main movement ke khilaaf shuru hui hai aur abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Pichle saal ke end mein, keemat ne ek majboot reversal zone se bounce kiya. Neche ki taraf ke movement ki wave level abhi tak retracement boundaries ko paar nahi kiya hai.


Forecast:---

Aane waale dino mein, euro ke daam ki umeed hai ki wo nazdeek ke opposing zones ke darmiyan mein harkat karega. Resistance zone par dabav ke baad, daam ki harkat ki disha mein tabdeel aur price decline ki shuruaat ki jaa sakti hai. Calculated support zone neeche ki umeed ki maximum had ko had se ghira hua hai.




USD/JPY ANALYSIS!


Haal ki saalon mein, Japanese yen ki kamzori North American Dollar ke khilaaf rahi hai. November ke beech mein ek badi upar ki taraf ki trend ko counter-correction ne rok diya tha. December ke end se, keemat ne ek reversible upward structure banaya hai.

Forecast:--

Daam ki movement mein overall upar ki taraf ka trend aane waale haftay mein jari rahega. Pehle kuch dinon mein, short-term price reduction ki koshishen mumkin hain lekin ye calculated support ko paar nahi karni chahiye. Resistance zone, haftay ki barhti hui ummeed ko darust karti hai.

GBP JPY ANALYSIS!

British pound aur Japanese yen ke cross-pair ke chart par, 26 September se ek upar ki taraf ka zigzag ban raha hai. Pichle saal ke beech mein, keemat ne sideways movement banaya hai, jisme wave (B) ka beech ka hissa bana hua hai. Ye movement apne aakhir ki taraf badh raha hai. Sideways movement ke andar, reversal potential ke saath ek upar ki taraf ka wave ban raha hai.

Forecast:--

Aane waale dino mein, upar ki taraf daam ki harkat ka silsila jari rahega, lekin keemat potential reversal zone ke upar nahi badhegi. Iske boundaries ke andar ek majboot resistance level hai. Aane waale haftay ke doosre haftay mein, reversal aur daam ki girawat ka dobara shuru hona mumkin hai, jiska zyada ihtimal hai.

BTC USD FORECAST!

The previous trading week Bitcoin ke liye kamaiyon mein izafah aur investors ke liye bari pareshani ke sath khatam hui. BTC-ETF ki manzoori ki tawakul ke bais se buland volatility ke aghaz ne cryptocurrency ki keemat mein mazeed barh chale jumps kiye, jo ke traders ke positions ki bari miqdar ko ghata karne mein mubtala hui. Is ke bawajood, crypto market mein jazbaat mustahkam hain, jo naye trading week ki shuruaat mein umeed afza karte hain.

Bullish jazbaat Bitcoin ke price chart par bhi wazeh hain, jahan hamain pichle saat dinon mein quotes mein 4.5% izafah nazar aata hai. Naye trading week ka aghaz bhi 1.2% se zyada local izafah ke sath hua, jo ke Asian investors ki zyadati se hua. BTC ke liye buland umeedon ke sath, BTC-ETF ke mumkin manzoori ke silsile mein, is moqa par mojood bullish jazbaat ko barqarar rakhne ka har sabab hai.


BTC/USD Daily Outlook :--

Bitcoin ko ek bullish hafta ho sakta hai agar Consumer Price Index (CPI) girte rehta hai, jo ke Fed ke iqdaamat ki kamyabi ko ishara kare. Is, in turn, crypto market mein interest rate easing ki policy ki taraf rukh karne aur ek local bullish surge ko paida karne ke mazeed asbab farahem karega. Is halat mein, agar SEC kisi bhi application ko manzoor na kare ya BTC-ETF ka izhar "news bechna" waqia ban jaye, to Bitcoin ko apne izafah ke raste par jaari rakhne ke har imkaanat hain.

Tahqiqat ke mutabiq, idaaroni investors ETFs ke maamle mein SEC ke faislay ki muntazir hain. Is ke natijay mein, Bitcoin ne hafta ke doran $43.5k ke upar phir se ikhtiyar kiya, aur January 8th tak yeh $44k ke qareeb trade ho raha hai, jisme rozana trading volumes $23 billion ke aas paas hain. Fear and greed index 67 par hai, jo ke buland buying activity aur BTC/USD ke mazeed izafah mein yakeen ko darust karta hai.



Zyadatar, Bitcoin ki keemat apne raaste ko $45k ke taraf barhaye gi, jo ke buyers ke liye mukhlis maqsood hoga. Agar yeh is level ke oopar mazboot ho jata hai, to khareedne walay $46k aur oopar ki taraf ja sakte hain. Mazboot bunyadi factors aur zyadatar khareedne ki activity ke mojoodgi ke paish qadmi ke sath, Bitcoin $46k ke oopar apne local high ko update karne mein kamyab hai.

Conclusion:---

Bitcoin naye trading week ki umeedon ke sath shuru karta hai, jabke bullish jazbaat mazboot hain. Mumkinan mojooda bunyadi factors ke mojood hone se cryptocurrency ke izafah ke liye kamyabi ke imkaanat ko mazeed barha dete hain, jo ke $45k aur oopar ki taraf ka kamiyabi bhara izafah ka moqa dete hain. In haqaiqat ko madde nazar rakhte hue, intihai maqami BTC market mein intihai tajaweez se bhara ek trading week mutawakil kiya ja sakta hai, jisme BTC ke asbab aur volatility ke buland daraje aur price highs ki taza updates shamil hongi.

CRUDE OIL Forecast

CL Short-Term (Forecast)

Chand dinon ka manzar dekhtay hue, tail market mein bearish rawaiyaat ka imkan hai. Yeh tawaqquf jari OPEC ki jari hui farahmiyat, Middle East mein siyasi bechaini, aur hedge fund short selling ke haalat par mabni hai.Libya ke baray mein chand bullish chehron ko market mein shamil hone ka imkan hai, lekin aham trend batata hai ke market mukhlis hudood mein mehdood hai, aur bearish manzar ki taraf mael ho raha hai. Keemat ka andaza hai ke daam $75 aur $80 per barrel ke darmiyan rahega, jari haalat aur anay wale U.S. inventory data ke asar se anay wale trends par asar andaz hota hai.



Daily Light Crude Oil Futures:---

Mozooda Light Crude Oil Futures ki rozana keemat $70.62 hai, jo ke iski pichli bandooq $70.77 ke nichay hai, ishara hai ke thora sa downtrend hai. Yeh keemat dono 200-day aur 50-day moving averages ke nichay hai, jo ke $77.77 aur $74.97 hain, jazbati rawaiyat ko zahir karte hain.Trend line supports ya resistances ki kami ishara karti hai ke wazeh taur par kisi rukh ki kamee hai. Lekin, keemat $66.85 ke minor support ke oopar hai lekin $72.48 ke minor resistance ke nichay hai.

Minor resistance ke qareebi hone ke sath sath, keemat key moving averages ke nichay hai, isse short term mein bearish market outlook ka izhar hota hai, jab tak ke woh minor resistance ko paar na kare, jo ke tajwez-e-manzil ka ishara kar sakta hai.




Oil Market Continues Downward Trend:--

Aaj ke trading session mein, oil ke daam somwar se apne niche ki taraf jaari hai.06:28 GMT ke mutabiq, Light Crude Oil Futures $70.58 par trade ho rahe hain, jise $0.19 ya -0.27% ki kami ka tasreeh hai. Is ke alawa, March WTI crude oil futures $70.70 par hain, jo ke $0.22 ya -0.31% ke kamayi ke sath, aur March Brent crude oil futures abhi $76.01 par hain, jo ke $0.11 ya -0.14% ke kamayi ke sath, kam ho gaye hain.Yeh jaari rehnay wala farokht dabao market ki mushkil jawabi ko darust karta hai jo Middle East mein siyasi tanazaat, talab mein shakhsiyat, aur OPEC ki farahmiyat mein taqat bakhsh tabdiliyon ka natija hai.

GBP USD

H-1 Time Frame Outlook:---

Today, GBP/USD hourly chart mein naya reversal hua aur 61.8% (1.2715) corrective level ke upar close hua, jisse British pound ki taraf se ek naya upward trend shuru ho sakta hai. Iske natije mein Tuesday ko 1.2788–1.2801 resistance zone ki taraf jaari reh sakta hai. Agar is zone se rebound ho ya fir 1.2715 level ke neeche jaaye, toh US dollar ki taraf se support zone 1.2584–1.2611 ki taraf punarai suru ho sakti hai.

Wave situation ab bhi uncertain hai. Pehle maine bataya tha ki trends abhi bahut chhoti term ke hain, aur hum aksar ek hi wave ko poora trend represent karte hain. Bullish sentiment tab tak bani rahegi jab tak British pound mein koi decline na ho. Lekin waves ko market mein kya ho raha hai, isko spasht karne ke liye clarity chahiye. Aakhiri downward wave phir se 1.2611 level ko break nahi kiya, jisme sabhi pehle ke waves ke lows sthit hain. Naya upward wave ne pehle ke wave ke peak ko break kiya, isliye British pound 1.2788–1.2801 zone mein lautne par bharosa kar sakta hai. Main maanta hoon ki vartaman movement mein sabhi characteristics ek horizontal movement ke hain.

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

Information background Monday ko dono British pound aur US dollar ke liye tha nahi. Is hafte kuch reports US aur UK mein traders ko direction tay karne mein madad kar sakti hain, lekin sabhi Thursday aur Friday ke ant mein scheduled hain. Tuesday aur Wednesday ko koi mahatvaapoorn reports nahi honge. Isliye maine koi wajah nahi dekhi hai ki pair 1.2611–1.2788 range se bahar jaaye. Horizontal movement jaari hai, aur bullish traders apne positions ko maintain kar rahe hain, jo bears ko advance karne nahi de rahe hain. 1.2611 level ne kam se kam teen baar pehle se hi strong support ka kaam kiya hai.

4-hour chart par, pair ne 1.2745 par 61.8% Fibonacci level tak retrace kiya. Agar is level se naya bounce hua, toh ye phir se US currency ke favor mein kaam karega aur 1.2620 tak gir sakta hai. 4-hour chart par 1.2620 aur 1.2745 ke beech mein horizontal movement dikhaai deta hai. Aaj koi bhi indicators mein koi imminent divergences nahi dikhai de rahi hain, aur ascending trend corridor chhoda gaya hai. Trend bearish hone ki aur bhi changes ho sakti hain, lekin ismein samay lagega.




GBP/USD Forecast:--

Aaj British pound bechne ka mauka tab banega jab hourly chart par 1.2715 level ke neeche consolidation hoga, target 1.2611 ke saath. Bechne ka mauka bhi ho sakta hai 4-hour chart par 1.2745 level se rebound hone par. Aaj kharidne ka vichar kiya ja sakta hai agar hourly chart par 1.2715 level se rebound hokar, target 1.2788 ke saath.

GBP USD Forecast!

D-1,Time Frame Chart:---

Daily chart par, GBP/USD ke main currency pair ki bullish channel mein movement ho rahi hai, lekin last Ross Hook (RH) level ko break karne mein kami hai. Price movements mein Stochastic Oscillator indicator ke sath deviation pattern dikhai de raha hai. Agar Cable par koi mazbooti nahi aati, khaas kar level 1.2826 par, jo ke strengthening ka ek sign hai, toh agle kuch dinon mein yeh currency pair kamzor ho sakta hai aur level 1.2610 ko test karega. Agar yeh level successfully break hota hai toh reversal ka confirmation hoga aur level 1.2498 target banega, jabki momentum aur volatility ise support kare toh level 1.2190 secondary target hoga.

GOLD FORECAST!

Gold 2,030.88 ke aaspaas trade kar raha hai, 200 EMA ke aaspaas, aur 21 SMA ke niche jo 2,036 par hai. Kal American session ke doran gold ne 200 EMA ke upar consolidate kiya. Agar yeh area ke upar trading continue hoti hai toh gold mein ek recovery ho sakti hai.2,040 aur 2,025 ke beech price range movement widespread market uncertainty ki wajah se hai kyun ki Thursday, January 11 ko United States mein CPI data release hoga.

Yeh data investors ke liye klj hai. Inflation expectations gold ke movement par asar daal sakti hain. Agar analysts ki expectations ke mutabiq inflation 3% se upar ho, toh yeh data US dollar ko benefit de sakta hai.Mazboot US dollar seedhe taur par gold ko asar daal sakta hai aur hum ek tezi se giravat dekh sakte hain, jisme metal December 14 aur January 5 ko mazboot support ke taur par kaam kiya tha.Dusri taraf, agle kuch ghanton mein, humein yeh expect hai ke gold 2,047 ke aaspaas downtrend channel ke top aur 2,030 ke aaspaas 200 EMA ke beech range mein trade karega.


H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

4-hour chart par 2,029 ke neeche close hone par, humein gold mein giravat ka expect hai aur yeh 2,016 zone tak pahunch sakta hai. Agar yeh scenario hota hai toh hum consolidation expect kar sakte hain jo is area ke aaspaas hokar ek technical rebound ko cause kar sakti hai, jo strong weekly support ko represent karega.

CRUDE OIL FORECAST

Crude oil markets mein momentum talash kar rahe hain jab ke hum bade consolidation ke darmiyan baithe hain, jise main dono grades mein dekh raha hoon. Aakhir kar, yeh ek market hai jismein bohat se factors hain, is liye aapko bohat ihtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis:---

Aap dekh sakte hain ke crude oil market trading session ke doran thoda sa positive raha hai. Lekin is waqt, market ko oopar significant resistance nazar aata hai. 50-day EMA ek ahem rukawat pesh karta hai, aur $75 bhi asar daal raha hai. Agar hum us se oopar ja sakte hain, toh market 200-day EMA ki taraf ja sakta hai. Main samajhta hoon ke $68 level par humein kaafi support mil sakta hai, jo ki ek area hai jahan pe humne pehle bhi massive support dekha hai. West Texas Intermediate grade apne pairon par khada karne ki koshish kar raha hai, consolidation ke doran.



Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis:---

Yahan Brent mein, wahi kahani hai. Brent mein bohat shor mach raha hai, aur is liye $80.50 level oopar 50-day EMA ke aas paas resistance pesh karta hai, jabke neeche $72 level par bohat saara support hai. Brent ko wohi maslay ka samna karna pad raha hai jo WTI market ko bhi karna padega, kyunki global demand aur pricing power mein bohat si pareshaniyan hain, kyun ke ek serious glut hai, lekin usi waqt, hum ek major support level ke neeche hain. Main samajhta hoon ke aakhir mein oil uthne lagay ga, lekin iske liye humein economy ko uthne ki zaroorat hai ya phir Red Sea mein kisi hamlay ki wajah se Middle East mein conflict mein izafah ho sakta hai.

Main yeh manta hoon ke aakhir mein crude oil markets apne pairon par khadi karegi aur ek bottom dhundhegi, lekin abhi lag raha hai ke humein kaafi kaam karna padega. Agar yeh mamla aise hi raha, toh aapko apne position size mein bohat ihtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye, lekin aapko yeh bhi pehchan lena chahiye ke crude oil markets external factors ke qaidi hain, jin par aapko qareebi tawajju deni hogi.

SILVER FORECAST!

Wednesday ke early hours mein silver markets mein kuch khaas nahi hua, aur hum kisi bhi tarah ki wazehgi ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is waqt, hum overall range ke neeche aur oopar nazdeek hain, is liye agar aap sabr se hain, to yeh ek mumkin mauqa ban sakta hai.


Silver Market Technical Analysis:---


Silver market ne trading session mein kuch khaas nahi kiya hai Wednesday ko, jab hum kafi had tak infleishan ki malumat ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhir mein, Thursday ko CPI numbers aur Friday ko PPI numbers hamare aglay kadam par bada asar daalenge. Is liye yeh mumkin hai ki is doran hum bas is ilaake mein idhar udhar ghoom rahe honge. 200 din ka EMA thoda oopar hota hai, aur yeh beshak ek indicator hai jise log khaas taur par mad-e-nazar rakhte hain. Agar hum yahan se neeche jaate hain, to phir hum $22 ke level tak ja sakte hain, jo ke kai martaba support ban chuka hai. Aur main samajhta hoon ki yeh overall range ka neeche ka hissa hai.

Agar hum 200 din ke EMA ke oopar jaate hain, to yeh ek move ko khol deta hai 50 din ke EMA ki taraf, jiska baad $24 ke level, aur phir dhire dhire $26 ke level ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aakhir mein, yeh ek aisa mahaul hai jahan markets iss range ko saal bhar tak banaye rakhenge, kyun ki yeh sach hai ki yeh market aksar range-bound hota hai, kyun ki silver market mein kai actors hain jo ise control mein rakhte hain. Yaad rahe ke aapko 10 saal ke interest rate aur 10 saal ke note interest rates par tawajjo deni chahiye.



Kam rates silver ko madad karti hain. Dusri taraf, aapko industrial demand par bhi tawajjo deni chahiye kyun ki yeh ek industrial dhaat bhi hai. Yeh cheez hai jo kai retail traders par tawajjo nahi dete, arthashastra aur yeh ke silver ke liye maang kya hoti hai. Iske alawa, silver bohat zyada volatil hai, is liye aapko apne position sizing ke sath bohat ehtiyaat se kaam karna chahiye jab tak aapki trade saabit nahi hoti. Sab kuch barabar hone par, main is par bullish hoon lekin yeh yeh nahi ke main ek badi position ke sath andar jump kar raha hoon.