pakeezabaloch trading journal

EUR USD WEEKLY FORECAST

EUR/USD pair nay haftay ki shuruaat mein taqat mein aakar, lekin uski raftar kam hui aur wo 1.0900 ke mark ke bohat neeche haftay ko band karnay ja raha hai. Market participants ne mainly sentiment par trade kiya, jismein worldwide monetary policies ke tightening cycles mein tabdili ki ummid thi, jiski wajah se US Dollar ke khilaaf shart lagai gayi.

Data ke mutabiq, overall taraqqi mazboot hai jabke mahangai kam hoti ja rahi hai. Central banks ko monetary policy shift ko tasdeeq karne ke liye mazeed kamzor hona chahiye. Speculative interest majmooay kiye ja rahe hai ke jald hi major economies mein interest rates mein katauti hogi aur policymakers ke warnings ko nazar andaz karte hain ke rates lambay waqt tak zyada rahenge.

anay wale haftay mein macroeconomic calendar mein kam interest wale figures hain. Multiple ECB officials Monday ko wires par hongay, lekin December monetary policy meeting se pehle US policymakers mein khamoshi rahegi. Eurozone Q3 GDP ka ek revision release karegi, lekin focus US employment figures par hoga, kyun ke country Friday ko Nonfarm Payrolls report publish karegi, jise pehle usual ADP survey, JOLTS Job Openings, quarterly Unit Labor Cost aur Nonfarm Productivity reports hongay.




EUR/USD technical outlook

yeh keh raha hai ke woh briefly 61.8% Fibonacci retracement se ooper trade kiya tha 1.0960 par, lekin haftay ko 50% retracement at 1.0861 ke neeche khatam karega. Yeh kehna ke itna critical resistance level hold hua hai, sellers ke liye aik ishara hai, kyun ke yeh ek aur leg south ke liye darwaza kholta hai.

EUR/USD ke weekly chart mein dikhaya gaya hai ke positive momentum kam ho gaya hai. Technical indicators ne bullish strength kho di hai aur neutral-to-bearish levels ke andar chale gaye hain. Wahi pair apne 20 aur 100 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) ke ooper hai, lekin woh marginally neeche ja rahe hain, jo ke kam hone wale buying interest ko darust karta hai.

Daily chart ke technical readings ke mutabiq, EUR/USD apni slide ko extend kar sakta hai. Technical indicators puri tarah south ja rahe hain, lekin woh abhi bhi positive levels ke andar hain. Isi doran, 20 SMA apni bullish strength ko kuch kam kar raha hai jabke woh longer ones ke ooper hai, jo ke current level ke neeche hain.



Mukhtasir mein, main resistance level 1.0960 hai, jiska break us recent multi-month high at 1.1016 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Jab iske ooper jaaye, to EUR/USD apni advance ko 1.1060 price zone tak extend kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair 1.0860 ke neeche rahe, to 1.0790 ka test nazr aayega, jabke iske neeche 1.0740 agla support level hai raste mein 1.0690 tak.

CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL Analysis

⁵WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices faded after much anticipation created by OPEC+ postponing their meeting around production cuts due to disagreements with certain African nations. Eventually, the announcement revealed voluntary cuts by selected members led by Saudi Arabia resulting in roughly 2.2 million bpd. The inability to unanimously agree has brought into question the organizations efficacy and cohesion. The alliance has subsequently revealed that Brazil (South America’s largest producer) will join OPEC in January 2024 although no further details were given.

Forecasts of a possible surplus in 2024 contributed to the decision by OPEC and with the new extended cuts in place, this may significantly reduce this excess.

From a USD perspective, the week ahead is relatively light yet hard hitting in terms of data releases. Firstly, the ISM services PMI report is expected to tick higher – a print that is key to the US economy being primarily services driven. Rounding off the week, Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) will provide more information as to the state of the US job market. Considering the greenback is trading at multi-month lows, it may be time for some dollar strength that could weigh negatively on crude oil.


TECHNICAL ANALYSISB.

both Brent crude and WTI daily charts below exhibit similar chart patterns in the form of a bear flag formation (black). Bears closed the prior week around flag support threatening a breakout lower. The weekly candle close further supports a bearish bias due to its upper long wick that could quickly bring into attention subsequent support zones



.Crude oil price resumed its negative trading strongly to reach the thresholds of the waited target at 73.73, being aware that it is important to monitor the price at this level, as breaking it represents the key to suffer additional losses that reach 72.00 areas as a next station, while consolidating against the negative trades will lead the price to start recovery attempts on the intraday basis. I

NZD USD

NZD/USD Friday ko teesra hissa percent barh kar saath dinon tak chalne wali satah ko ghara. Kiwi US Dollar ke khilaf trading session ke aakhri hisse mein 2% barh gaya hai. Aane wale haftay mein patli Kiwi data neechay jhukta hai jabke agle Jumma ko phir se ek aur round of US NFP data aata hai.

NZD/USD apni charhao jaari rakhta hai jab Kiwi (NZD) major currencies bloc mein sab se behtar karnay wali currency ban raha hai, trading week ke liye US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf 2% barh gaya hai.Ek behtar hone wale maasharti nazariye ke sath sath ek hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Kiwi ko poori dunia mein buland kar raha hai. Kiwi do dinon mein doosri martaba Greenback ke khilaf 0.6200 handle mein chadh raha hai.


RBNZ ne is haftay 5.5% par interest rates ko qaim rakha, lekin New Zealand ke central bank ka hawkish nazariya Kiwi ko saath le kar chala raha hai. RBNZ ke afraad inflation ke sath mazeed rate hikes ka tawajju de rahe hain jabke inflation lambay arsay tak RBNZ ke 1-3% ke target band ke bahar gir raha hai.

Consumer sentiment aur business outlook surveys mein izafa hota ja raha hai, jab ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey index early Friday ko saal bhar ka buland record 91.9 tak pohanch gaya, jo ki haftay ke ikhtitam mein NZD/USD ko aur tezi se agay barhata hai.Aanay wale haftay mein Kiwi ke liye maasharti data ka patla silsila hai, lekin nazrein agle Jumma ke US Non-Farm Payrolls release ki taraf mudayin hongi, jahan se is expected hai ke US November mein 150K se 170K tak naye rozgar hasil karega.


NZD/USD Technical Outlook

NZD/USD 14 mazid muzmin trading days ke liye hariya mein qaim hai, aur jab tak yeh pair 0.6200 handle ke qareeb rahega, to yeh saath dinon tak ke is taraf ki tezi ko darust karega.Kiwi-Dollar joda October ke 0.5772 ke neechay se 7.5% chadh gaya hai, aur haal hi mein muzmin jazbat ka jari rahay ga to yeh ek naye lambay term trend ko banaay ga aur July ke swing high 0.6400 mein ek naya muqabla karay ga.

NZD/USD ne asani se 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko guzardia hai jabki Kiwi ke qareebi trend ne muzmin tor par bullish rehne ka rukh badla hai, aur agar ek inkaar na aya to bulls 200-day SMA ke 0.6100 handle ke neeche pair ko wapas le jane ke liye tayyar honge.

EUR JPY Forecast

EUR JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s fall from 164.29 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 159.63. Breach of 159.75 resistance turned support suggests that it’s already corrective the whole rise from 139.05. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Deeper fall wold be seen to 161.8% projection of 164.29 to 161.22 from 163.70 at 158.73 next. On the upside, above 161.22 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

ln the bigger picture, bearish divergence condition in 55 D EMA indicates that a medium term top could b formed at 164.29 already, after hitting rising channel resistance. But price actions from there are tentatively seen as a correction only. There is no clear sign that the up trend from 144.42 (2020 low) has completed yet. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.12) holds, another rally through 164.29 is still in favor as a later stage.


In the long term picture, rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). Next target is 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 170.07 which is close to 169.96 (2008 high).


EUR JPY Daily Outlook:!

EUR/JPY recovered after hitting 100% projection of 164.29 tot 161.22 from 163.77 at 160.63. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. While further decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 159.75 key support to complete the correction from 164.29. Meanwhile, break of 162.24 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 163.70/164.29 resistance zone.

The EURJPY pair formed positive rebound after touching 160.60 target, affected by stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum, to settle near 161.70, while the frequent negative stability below the broken bullish channel’s support line that forms solid resistance at 162.00 supports the chances of renewing the negative attempts, to expect targeting 160.95 level soon, while breaking it might extend losses towards 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 160.20.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 169.96 (2008 high). On the downside, break of 159.75 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pullback.

BTC USD Forecast

Bitcoin ki moolyat mein taqreeban 18 mahinon ke baad $32K ke ooper aik bara breakout hua hai. Is breakout ka asal sabab hai Ameriki SEC ke "physical" Bitcoin ETF ki manzoori ki ummid. Pichli baray naam ki mainstream crypto launches ke mukable, jese CME mein futures contracts aur futures-based ETF, jo crypto market mein qareebi highs ko mark karte hain, aik "physical" ETF ko apne asasay ke mutabiq Bitcoin khareedna aur usay apne assets ke barabar mein hold karna parega, jo ke market mein moolyat ki asal supply aur demand ke tanazur ko badal dega.


BTC USD D1 Time frame Outlook.

Yehi wajah hai ke market is ummid par pehle se hi agay badh raha hai, is liye jab ETF ko officially manzoori milti hai, to "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction ka khadsha bhi ho sakta hai. Bitcoin ab apne 4 saal ke halving cycle ke aik tareekhi bullish dor mein hai aur major central banks ne nazar mein aane wale arsey mein interest rates barhane ka almost khatma kar dia hai, jiski wajah se duniya ke sab se bare cryptoasset ke keemat ko barhne ke liye badi tasalliyan hain.



Upar diye gaye chart se zahir hai ke Bitcoin ne $32K ke ooper aik bara breakout kiya hai, jise 18 mahinon ke baad hasil kia gaya hai. Is topside breakout ne saal ke pehle half mein hone wale rally ka 38.2% pullback dekha, jo ke is waqt bhi bulls ke sath medium-term momentum ko darust rakh raha hai. Jab tak Bitcoin $32K ke ooper apne breakout ko maintain karta hai, to $36K ki taraf mazeed taqat ka imkan hai, jo ke Nov. '21 se Nov. '22 ke drop ka 38.2% retracement hai, iske baad agla psychological level $40K hoga. Is waqt, sirf $32K ke neeche jaane se near-term bullish bias mitaa jaayega.

COT REPORT

GBP/USD (British pound futures) positioning – COT report:

BOE ke members ke hawkish comments ne asset managers aur large speculator ko bullish bets par tezi se barhaya, jisse net-short exposure 8-week low tak gir gaya. Haqeeqatan mein large specs ne apni long exposure ko pichle haftay mein 42% tak barha diya, haanle shorts effectively unchanged rahe. Fed ke cuts ko traders ke expectations mein daalne ke saath, hum shayad jaldi hi dekhein ge ke traders GBP/USD par net-long exposure par chale jate hain.




Gold futures (GC) positioning – COT report:

Gold ne Monday ke early Asian trade mein 2022 high/previous all-time high ko chaknachoor kar diya, $75 tak izafa hua aur 1-week implied volatility band ko paar kar gaya. Gold ke liye kai headlines expect kiye ja sakte hain, lekin mujhe is harkat par shaq hai, kyun ki ye low liquidity trade ke doran hui, aur humne pehle hi dekha hai ke gold ne apne early gains ka bohot hissa wapas kiya hai.

Phir bhi, hum dekhte hain ke large speculators aur managed funds ne longs ko aur badhaya aur shorts exposure ko kam kiya, lekin net-long exposure sentiment extreme se door hai. Agar bond yields aur girte rahen toh gold ke liye sab se aasan raasta upar ki taraf lagta hai. Lekin traders ko apne agle asal move ke samne hone wale kuch volatility ke liye taiyar rehna chahiye.





WTI crude oil (CL)– COT report:

Crude oil ne chhatiwi saptah tak gir kar band kiya, jab traders OPEC ke muntazir oil production cuts se khush nahi hue. Shorts bets tezi se barhi, teesre haftay mein sabse zyada, jabke long bets managed funds aur large speculators ke liye effectively unchanged rahe. $80 ke qareeb resistance ko paas karne ke baad bearish outside week ke baad, mera raye hai ke ab $70 ki asal target ki taraf ek kadam badhna hoga.

USD/JPY:


Japanese yen ke major pair ki short-term trend ki taraf anjaam, ek adhora descending extended plane ke algorithm se tay hoti hai. Final part (C) daily chart par aik correction banata hai, jo pichle upward segment ki taraf hai.



Forecast:---

Is haftay mein, mojooda girawat ka anjaam mushahida kiya jata hai, kyun ke calculate kiye gaye support zone mein mukammal ho raha hai aur ek upward price movement ka aghaz ho raha hai. Calculate kiye gaye reversal zones pair ki haftay bhar ki harkat ka mutawaqqi range dikhate hain.

Potenital Reversal
ZonesResistance:148.50/149.00Support:146.50/146.00



Tajaweez:

Kharidari: Kaafi risky hai. Isay fractional lots ke sath istemal kiya ja sakta hai jab reversal signals nazar aayein.Farokht: Mumkin hai intraday ke dauran, lekin lots ko kam karke. Muamalon mein, keemat mein girawat ke liye mehdood mumkinat ko madde nazar rakhein.



GBP/JPY ANALYSIS:---

British pound ke ongoing upward trend ne Japanese yen ke khilaf July 28th se jari hai. Pichle mahinon mein, quotes mostly sideways plane mein chale gaye hain, jo aik correctional part (B) banata hai. Ye wave apne formation ke final stage mein hai.


Forecast:---

Aam tor par cross movement ka ek general downward vector aane wala haftay mein tawajjuh diya jata hai. Ek girawat ko calculate kiye gaye support ki hudood tak mumkin hai. Aglay do dinon mein, ek short-term rollback bhi mumkin hai, lekin woh resistance zone se ooper nahi hoga.



Potenital Reversal ZonesResistance:187.50/188.00Support:184.20/183.70Tajaweez:Kharidari: Moqaddam hai jab tak mojooda wave mukammal nahi hota, aur is se deposit nuksan ka sabab ban sakta hai.Farokht: Individula trading sessions mein fractional lots ke saath mabni hai.

GOLD OUTLOOK AND ANALYSIS:--


Israel aur Hamas ke darmiyan jang barhne se sone ki keemat mein izafa hua hai. Halka sa economic calendar risk sentiment ke asar se bazaar ki halchal barhaega. Bearish technical signals ke mutabiq sone ki keemat dobara $2000 ki taraf ja sakti hai.



Gold Economic Calendar


XAU/USD BUNYADI TAJZIYA:---
Sone ki keemat ne market open par Israel aur Hamas ke darmiyan barhti hui siyasi tensions ki bina par naye record bulandiyon ko chhoo liya. Zard dhaat ki is safe haven ki kashish ne is kadam ko sahara diya, lekin iske bawajood keemat phir se $2100 ke neeche chali gayi; yeh bhi ke bazaar mein dollar ko taqatwar paaya gaya hai. Mere haftay ki sonay ki tajwez ke mutabiq, implied Fed funds futures path mein ek mushabihat hai jisme pricing December 2024 tak lagbhag 125bps tak ke interest rate cuts ko darust karti hai.


US asli maweshi (neechay dekhein) US Treasury yields ki izafayi ke baad buland hai. Iski technical hawale se sone ki kashish mein izafayi mauqaat ki badolat hadood mein hai, lekin abhi safe haven ki darkhwast pe ghalib hai.

Aaj koi asli high impact data nahi hai, is liye keemat ki harkat Gaza ke updates ke mutabiq aur ane wale ISM services PMI aur Non-Farm Payrolls ke aas-paas ki umeedon ke asar par tawajjo kheenchegi. Bohat se analysts upside surprises ki tawajjo karte hain, agar yeh haqeeqat ban gayi toh sone ki keemat ko nuksan ho sakta hai.

Daily Chart Analysis:---

Yeh rozana XAU/USD chart early trade mein massive rally dikha raha hai jisme aik lambi upper wick candlestick ban rahi hai. Agar candle is tarah se bandh gaya toh bears doosre neeche jane ke liye talaash karenge, jo ke fundamental projections ko support karega jaisa ke upar zikar kiya gaya hai. Bearish bias ko madad karne ke liye Relative Strength Index (RSI) overbought zone mein hai. Bullish perspective se, bulls ko thori ummeed hai jab hum pehle golden cross formation (neela) ke ishaare dekh rahe hain.

Resistance levels:
2150.00 2081.82
Support levels:
2048.79, 2000.00, 1987.42, 1950.00

BITCOIN Forecast:---

Bitcoin ne weekend mein 40K ki had ko tor diya hai, jo ke May 2022 se pehli dafa hua hai, jiski wajah se cryptocurrency market mein taza umeed aur tawajju ki lehar aayi hai. Ab tawajju seedhi 41259 ke ahem Fibonacci projection level par hai. Is level ka faisla karna 50K handle tak pahunchne ka raasta tay kar sakta hai.

Ye surge mainly SEC ke Bitcoin ETF ki manzoori ke ird gird barhti optimism se driven hai. Bloomberg ki tawajju ke mutabiq, aise funds ki manzoori ka intezar January tak hai. Ye development Bitcoin ki mainstream qubooliyat ki taraf bara gehra nishaan hai, jo ke bohat se investors aur traders ke liye lambe intezaar ka maqam hai.

Ek aur contributing factor May next year mein hone wale Bitcoin halving event hai. Tareekhi tor par, har chaar saal baad hone wale Bitcoin halvings ko bullish market trends ke sath jora gaya hai. Market participants halving aur ETF approval ki tawajju mein early positioning kar rahe hain.



Technically, D MACD ye sugget karta hai ke Bitcoin ab re-acceleration phase mein hai. Immediate focus 15452 se le kar 24896 ki taraf se 31815 ka 100% projection par hai, jo 41259 par hai. Is level ka decisive break 51371 ki taraf raaste ko khol sakta hai.Iske baawajood, shayad 41259 par kuch initial resistance ho, jo pehle attempt mein upside ko limit karega. 37485 support ka break pehle Bitcoin mein consolidation layega. Lekin pull back ko 31815 resistance turned support mein rokna chahiye, jo ek aur rally ko lekar aayega.



USD/JPY Daily Outlook:

USD/JPY ka intraday bias phir downside par hai jab 146.65 temporary low ko break kara gaya hai. 151.89 se girawat barqarar hai aur 145.06 key support level ko nishana banayega. Upside mein, 148.50 resistance ka break short term bottoming ko indicate karne ke liye zaroori hai. Warna, further decline recovery ke case mein favor mein rahega.

Bigger picture mein, 127.20 se jo (2023 low) rise hai, woh 151.93 (2022 high) se hone wale pattern ka doosra leg hai. 145.06 resistance turned support ka decisive break ye confirm karega ke ye doosra leg complete ho gaya hai, 151.93 ki rejection ke baad. Deeper fall 127.20 se 151.89 tak ka 38.2% retracement at 142.45 aur 61.8% retracement at 136.63 ke through dekha jayega. Lekin 145.06 se strong bounce medium term bullishness ko retain karega, jo ke aane wale stage mein 151.93 par ek aur test layega.

GBP USD

H1 Time frame Outlook:---

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD ne Jumma ko 50.0% (1.2604) ke correction level se bounce karke apni izafi harkat jaari rakhi. Pair ne raat mein 1.2730 ke level tak pohancha, lekin wahaan koi saaf rebound nahi tha. Phir bhi, ab ek American currency ke favor mein reversal hua hai, aur ab humein 1.2604 ki taraf girne ka intezar hai. Pair ne pichle haftay mein ascending trend corridor ke neeche band ho gaya, lekin bears ne apne kamyabi ko develop karne mein kamyabi nahi hasil ki. Unki pessimistic mood unhein kaafi rok rahi hai, aur United States se aane wahi khabrein bhi.

Wave situation ne haal hi mein sawaal uthane wale hain. Aakhri neeche ki gayi wave pichli low ko torne ke liye zyada choti nikli. Is waqt, main "bullish" trend ke mukammal hone par pura bharosa nahi kar sakta. Lekin aakhri chadhti hui wave ne bhi pichli wave ke peak ko nahi tora, jo "bullish" trend ke khatam hone ka pehla nishan hai. Yeh wave abhi 100% mukammal nahi hui, isliye 29 November ke peak ko abhi bhi tora ja sakta hai. Iske liye 1,2730 ke level ke upar close ki zarurat hogi. Is close ke bina, "bullish" trend jaari nahi rahega.


Pichle haftay ka final chord Jerome Powell ki taqreer thi. Federal Reserve ke President ne kaha ki interest rates kam karne aur FOMC ke tightening cycle ki khatmaat ke baare mein abhi baat karna jaldi hai. "Agar zarurat ho to hum taiyyar hain policy ko mazeed tighten karne ke liye," Powell ke mutabiq. "Lekin Federal Reserve ko aur signals mil rahe hain ki mazeed tightening ki zarurat nahi hai - inflation kam ho raha hai, mazdooriyan kam ho rahi hain," FOMC ke sarbarahne ki khabar dete hain. Powell ne Amreeki maeeshat ke mazeed tezi se barhne par fikr zahir ki, kehte hue ki aise tezi se barhne par abhi tak inflation par jeet ka kehna jaldi hai. Federal Reserve pulse par rehti hai aur intervens ko tayyar hai. Lekin koi bhi trader ya investor December ya January mein rate hike ka intezaar nahi kar raha.


H4 time frame Outlook:---

4-hour chart par, pair ne 1.2620 ke level se bounce kiya, aur RSI indicator par "bullish" divergence ne ismein madad ki. Is tarz mein izafi izafi harkat 61.8% (1.2745) ke correction level ki taraf jaari ki ja sakti hai. Pair ke 1.2620 ke level ke neeche fix hona US dollar ke favor mein kaam karega aur aane waqt mein iski izafi growth ke liye uski khaas taqat ko barha dega. Kam az kam, British pound ascending trend corridor ke lower line tak gir sakti hai.

EUR USD Forecast

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:--

4 ghantay ka chart euro/dollar pair ka tafseeli jaiza abhi bhi wazeh hai. Pichle saal mein, hum ne sirf teen wave structures dekhi hain jo barabar mein aik dosre ke sath tabdeel hoti rahi hain. 2023 ke doran, mein ne baar baar zikr kiya tha ke main 5th figure ke qareeb pair ka intezar kar raha hoon, jahan pehli wave structure ki tashkeel shuru hui thi. Ye maqami nishan julai-october ki kamiyon ke baad pohancha. Is maqami nishan ko hasil karne ke baad, 2 ya b ki tashkeel shuru hui, jo ke ab tak ek wazeh paanch wave ki shakal mein hai lekin amreeki inflation report ki wajah se mazeed mushkilat ka samna kar rahi hai.



Wave 2 ya b ke natije par bhi (maine ye baat ki thi ke ye zyada mushkil ho sakti hai), Europi currency ka kul girawat mukammal nahi hoga, kyun ke har haal mein, neeche ki taraf ki tezi ki tashkeel ki zaroorat hai. Jis tarah se lag raha hai, wave e in 2 ya b ne ek paanch wave wazeh form ikhtiyar kar liya hai lekin shayad ab mukammal ho chuki ho.

General Result:--

Euro/dollar pair ne somwar ko 65 basis points ki kami ki. Ye kuch nahi hai, lekin is se wave 2 ya b ki mukammal hone ka aakhri nishan hai. Main ne do hafton pehle hi is wave ki mukammal hone ka intezar kiya tha, lekin uski aakhri andruni wave ne meri tawajju se zyada wusat ikhtiyar kar li thi, is liye ab hum sirf muntazir hain ke manzur wave 3 ya c ka aaghaz ho raha hai. Der aaye durust aaye.

Aaj, market mein dollar ki taleem mein koi khaas wajah nahi thi, lekin amreeki session khula aur dollar ki khareedari shuru ho gayi. Ye mantarfeeni hai kyun ke euro sirf taqatwar khabron ke sath barabar barh sakti hai. Aur ab taqatwar khabar mandi nahi hai. Pichle haftay mein, sirf aik ahem report ne dollar ko nahi pasand kiya - jumma ko ISM index. 1.0463 ke aas paas ke maqasid durust taur par kaam kiye gaye thay, aur is level ko torne ki nakami ne ek mustawar wave ki tashkeel ki taraf ishara kiya. Wave 2 ya b ka manzur man liya ja sakta hai.



Bari wave ki scale par ye nazar ata hai ke corrective wave 2 ya b ki tashkeel jari hai, jo pehli wave se 61.8% Fibonacci se zyada lambi hai. Jaisa ke maine pehle bhi kaha tha, ye intehai zaroori nahi hai, aur wave 3 ya c ki tashkeel aur pair ki 4th figure ke neeche girne ka senario barqarar hai.

BTC USD Analysis

Chand hafton mein Bitcoin market ne khareedne walon ki thakan ke kai wazeh aur zahiri isharay dikhaye hain. Cryptocurrency ne ek taiz channal ke andar se chalne se $36.6k-$38k ke range mein consolidation mein dakhil hone tak kaafi barh gaya hai. Isi doran, BTC mein munafa lenay ka volume barh raha hai, jo ke keemat par aur dabao dal raha hai. Lekin aakhir mein, khareedne walay bechnay walon se zyada zahiri aur mazboot nikle, jis se $38.3k-$38.5k ke darjay ko paar kiya gaya.

Iske baad, Bitcoin ne apni izafi harkat ko jari rakha aur $40k ke darjay tak pahuncha. Nai trading hafta ek aur upar ki taraf impulse ke sath shuru hua, jise Asian markets ne sponsor kiya.



Bitcoin ne tamam tawakulat ko paar kar ke $41k ke darjay ke oopar apni jagah ko mazbooti se thaharaya hai. Hum ne ek "ascending triangle" pattern ka final formation aur BTC ke daam ko $41.6k-$42k ke range mein le jane ka aik manzar bhi shamil kiya tha. Cryptocurrency ne is pattern ke upar ki jazbat ko mazeed ziada kar liya hai.

Isi doran, takneekai metrics kuch maslaat bayan karte hain: MACD ne upar ki harkat ko dobara shuru ki hai aur bullish volumes mein izafah ko ishara karta hai. Lekin Stochastic ne overbought zone mein dakhil ho gaya hai aur flat taur par harkat kar raha hai, jo ke qareebi mustaqbil mein is darjay ko paar karne ka sabab ban sakta hai, is tarah se bechne ka ishara karti hai. Is ko madde nazar rakhte hue, upar ki mumkinat mein koi waziha signs nahi hain.

Maamoolan, active ikhatta faz aur Glassnode ke data ke mutabiq, 0.01 BTC ke kam balance wale Bitcoin addresses ki tadad ne aik record buland 37.5 million tak pahunch gayi hai. Analysts ne note kiya hai ke 37,000 BTC ke funds crypto exchanges se bahar gaye hain. Dusri baaton mein, bunyadi taur par, Bitcoin mein tezi se talaash hai, exchanges par sikko ki tadad kam ho rahi hai, aur keemat ko neeche dabaane ki koshishen jald az jald khareedne ke interest se milti hain.




Today Summary:--

BTC char hafton se musalsal barh raha hai, aur har naye trading din ke sath, aik correction ki mumkinat aur zaroorat barh rahi hai. Lekin market ki halchal aur "hirs" ne BTC/USD ko sahi correction se guzarna rok raha hai. Iske alawa, takneekai indicators ne nazdeekin trend reversal ke baray mein waziha jawab nahi diya hai. Is ko madde nazar rakhte hue, isharaat ke sath sath bunyadi khabron ke mumkin asar ko bhi madde nazar rakh kar, ummeed ki ja sakti hai ke Bitcoin is haftay mein apni izafi harkat ko jari rakhega, $42k tak pahunch kar, jise $45k ki taraf rawana ho sakta hai.

USD JPY ANALYSIS:-!

Kal, USD/JPY pair gir gaya, jabkay Marlin oscillator barh raha tha. Ye shayad pair ka aakhri movement tha ek anay wale corrective rise se pehle. Agar aisa hai, toh keemat ne ek naya support level banaya hai jo hai 146.24.

148.35 ki taraf barhna pehli resistance ke liye hai, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ko correspond karega. Aur aage ki growth 149.72 (November 24 ka peak) ke liye 61.8% retracement ko correspond karega. Agar keemat ne apni neeche ki taraf movement ko jaari rakha, 148.24 ko toorna, toh yeh 145.08 ki taraf target kar sakti hai.

H-4 Time frame Outlook:--

4-hour chart par, keemat aur Marlin oscillator ne ek double convergence banaya hai. Agar keemat MACD line (147.60) ke upar chadhti hai, jo ke daily chart par 23.6% Fibonacci level ko toorna ko correspond karega, toh turant ki growth ka nishana 148.35 hoga. Is level ke upar consolidation 149.72 ka nishana khol deta hai.

EUR/USD

Kal, euro ne phir se 1.0834 ke strong support ko attack kiya. Is baar, Fibonacci ray ne ise chhed diya. Lekin, keemat ne apne safalta ko consolidate karne mein nakam hui, aur aaj ye sabhi supports ke upar khula. Ye hai November 29 se poori correction ka ant hone ka ishara. Is ishara ko confirm karne ke liye, oscillator ki signal line kal se pehle se hi positive territory mein wapas aani chahiye, agar yeh hota hai toh hume ummeed hai ke pair 1.0905 ki nazdeeki target level ko paar karega aur aage 1.0946 aur 1.1033 ki taraf badhega.

H4 TIME FRAME OUTLOOK:--

Agar keemat 1.0834 ke neeche settle ho jaati hai, toh hume umeed hai ke pair 1.0757 tak aur aage 1.0710 tak girne ka kaarvan karega - MACD line ki taraf.Kal, dollar ne mazbooti hasil ki partly gold aur oil ke prices mein giravat, taiz bond yields mein izafah, aur stock markets mein kamzori ke bina mein. Aaj subah, markets recover ho rahe hain, isliye counter-dollar currencies bhi badh sakti hain.

Aur, beshak, ek bearish scenario ko bhi nazar andaaz nahi kiya ja sakta, kyun ke aaj se important U.S. economic da tota release hone wala hai, aur agle haftay mein Federal Reserve meeting hone wala hai.
4-hour chart par, ek downtrend mojood hai. Reversal signs banane ke liye hume waqt chahiye. Aaj ki madhya maqdar ki tezi ya consolidation is waqt ko bhar sakti hai.

USD JPY FORECAST

Yen ki kamzori ki wazeh sabab kal Bank of Japan ki mulaqat mein hai, jahan tanzeem be shak manfi sood dar ko barqarar rakhay gi. Magar, bohot se karobarion ko is baare mein khabar milay gi ke markazi bank aglay saal is siyasiyat se kis waqt hatna chahti hai. Agar traders ko suna kuch pasand nahi aaya, toh zahir hai ke USD/JPY jora apni is islahat ko jari rakhe ga.

Aaj, din ke dosray hisse mein, koi ahem US maalumat nahi hai, aur NAHB Housing Market Index ke data ko tawajju di jaegi. Main irada karta hoon ke girawat ke baad aur 142.12 ke naye support ke ird gird aik jhooti tor par tor phor ki tameer hone par long positions dhoondhonga, jahan moving averages aapas mein milti hain aur khareedari signal faraham karti hain, maqsood 142.86 ke imdad ke liye. Agar is range ke top se bottom ki taraf tor phor aur mukhlis US maalumat ke sath wapas test ho, toh aik dakhil hone wala point banay ga jo jora ko 143.77 ke aas paas ke baraabar karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai.


H1 Time Frame Outlook:---

Aakhiri maqsood 144.28 ke ilaqe mein hoga, jahan main munafa le lunga. USD/JPY ki kami aur din ke dosray hisse mein 142.12 par kharidaron ki taraf se koi garami na ho to, joray par dabao barhega, jo aik chhota girawat ka nataja hoga. Is halat mein, main 141.49 ke aas paas daakhil hone ki koshish karunga - pichle Jumma ka kam se kam. Magar, sirf wahan aik jhooti tor par tor phor mera liye long positions shuru karne ka signal hoga. Main sirf 141.04 se shuru hui 30-35 point ki islahat ke liye din ke andar USD/JPY ki khareedari karne ka irada rakhta hoon.


Kharidar ne koshish ki, magar kuch khaas nahi hua. Uper ki islahat jari hai, lekin is ke bawajood, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke kharidar ab aur bhi bazu le chuke hain. Unki pehli zaahir hone wali jagah 142.86 ke resistance ilaqa mein mutawaqif hai, jahan jora ja raha hai. Aik jhooti tor phor ki tameer achi bechne ka signal degi, jo USD/JPY ko qareebi support 142.12 ki taraf raghib karay gi, jo din ke pehle hisse ke natijay se bana hai. Is range ke nichay se ooper ki taraf tor phor aur wapas test hone par kharidar positions ko zor se nuksan pahunchaye ga, jise stop orders ko chalane mein madad mile gi aur rasta khule ga 141.49 ki taraf.



Door ke maqsood 141.04 ke ilaqe mein hoga, jahan main munafa le lunga. Agar USD/JPY mein izafah ho aur 142.86 par kisi bhi garami ka na ho, jo ke meri shakhsiyat hai, toh chezein foran behtar hojayengi kharidar ke liye. Is halat mein, bechne ki taakhir karke aglay resistance 143.77 ko test karne tak kharidarion ke liye behtareen hai. Agar neeche ki taraf koi lihaaz na ho, toh main foran 144.28 se wapas test hone par USD/JPY ko bechunga. Magar, main ek girawat ki tajwez karta hoon jo din ke andar 30-35 point ke andar hone wale islahat ko shuru kar degi.

GBP USD Analysis:

H1 Time Frame Chart:---


H1 chart pr GBP/USD Monday ko apni neechay ki taraf rawana trend mein jaari raha, 1.2584–1.2604 support zone ki taraf barh raha tha. Yeh zone abhi tak nahi pahuncha hai, aur Tuesday subha tak thora sa barh raha hai. Lekin, main aaj British pound ki girawat ka dobara shuru honay ka intezar kar raha hoon. Agar quotes 1.2584 ya 1.2604 ke levels se chhatkare milenge, to yeh pound ke liye faida-mand hoga aur Fibonacci level 61.8%–1.2715 ki taraf kuch izafah hoga. Pair ki rate is zone ke neeche jam ho jaye to, iske further girne ke imkanat barh jayenge, 1.2513 level ki taraf.

Wave situation pichle haftay mein zyada mushkil ban gayi hai. Bailey aur Powell ke taqreerat ne British pound ko tezi se barhaya, aur haali ki chadhti hui wave ne pichle paanch waves ke peaks aur lows ko paar kar diya hai. Is tarah, trend "bullish" ho gaya hai, lekin mojooda chart 130-150 points ki girawat ko mumkin banata hai, aur "bullish" trend tab tak nahi toota hoga jab tak December 13 ki low ko paar nahi kiya jata. Is tarah, "bullish" trend ka poora hona sirf tab hi tasdeeq ho sakta hai jab ek naya upward wave aaye jo pichle wave ke peak ko par na kare.




H4 Time Frame Outlook:---

4-hour chart par, pair ne 61.8% corrective level (1.2745) ke neeche jam ho gaya hai. Is tarah, quotes ascending trend corridor ke andar hain, aur agar inki upper line aur level 1.2745 se chhatka mile to, yeh ek girawat ki taraf ishara karega. Main pound mein significant girawat sirf ascending trend corridor ke neeche jam ho jane ke baad ka intezar karunga. Aaj indicators mein koi nazdeek wale ikhtilafat nahi nazar aarahi hain. Quotes ka neeche se ascending corridor ki lower line se chhatkara, mojooda "bullish" trend ko barqarar rakhega.





Pound ki sale 1.2788–1.2801 zone se aur level 1.2715 ke neeche bandhne par ki ja sakti thi. Haal mein, yeh transactions 1.2604 target ke saath khule rakh sakte hain. Aaj, UK mein koi ahem khabar nahi hogi, aur US mein – sirf naye ghar banane ke volumes aur naye construction ke liye jari hone wale permits par reports honge. Meri raaye mein, yeh wo sab se ahem data nahi hain jo karobar karne wale ki jazbat par asar daalenge. Agar hourly chart par 1.2584–1.2604 zone se chhatkara mila, to purchases 1.2715 target ke saath mumkin hongi.