pakeezabaloch trading journal

CRUDE OIL

"Crude oil ke daur mein aakhri haftay mein prices mein izafah hua, lekin wo apne ek mahine ke trading range ke andar tezi se chalte rahe. Ye harkat Middle East mein barhte hue tensions aur U.S. mein hone wale extreme mausam ki wajah se hui production disruptions ki asarat thi.

Iske ilawa, geopolitical manzar mein, jisme Pakistan ne Iran mein hamle aur U.S. ne Houthi anti-ship missiles ke khilaf karwai ki, ne oil supply ki security mein izafah ki pareshaniyan barha di. In tensions ke bawajood, global oil market ka ta'amul munazzam hai, jisme supply disruptions upside risk banate hain, jabke global economy ki sehat se mutalliq pareshaniyan bhi hai.

Light Crude Oil Futures aakhri haftay mein $73.25 par settle hue, jo ke $0.65 ya +0.90% izafah ke sath tha.


U.S. Production aur Inventory Trends

U.S. mein shadeed sardi ne oil production par asar dala, khaas kar North Dakota mein, jahan par qareeban 40% production ruk gayi. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ke mutabiq U.S. crude production 13.3 million barrels per day tak pohanch gayi. Lekin EIA ne bhi bari miqdaar mein U.S. crude inventories ki kami batayi, jo refinery demand ko darust karti hai lekin rising gasoline aur distillate inventories ki wajah se mixed outlook dikhate hain.


Weekly Forecast:---

Anay haftay mein, crude oil market rangebound movement ka samna karne wala hai. Ye ta'amulat supply disruptions aur global economic concerns ke darmiyan mizaji jadal par mabni hai.

Middle East mein geopolitical tensions aur U.S. mein production challenges ke is daur mein prices par izafahat ka dabav hai, jabke China mein hone wale global economic slowdown aur OPEC aur IEA ke mukhtalif nazriyat ne prices par neeche ki taraf dabav dalna hai.

Iske alawa, U.S. dollar ki quwwat aur Federal Reserve ki policies bhi aham kirdar ada karengi. Traders ko range ke andar izafi harkatoun ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye, jo supply risks aur economic challenges ke darmiyan tawun ka nateeja hai.

Rangebound forecast mainly traditional market fundamentals par mabni hai. Lekin, Middle East ki mojooda surat-e-haal ko mad-e-nazar rakhte hue, is factor ko hamare tajziye mein ek anay wale element ke tor par lia ja raha hai."

SILVER FORECAST!

Silver ki qeemat mein tez girawat!
Monday ko bhari sarmaya dastaan ke bais investoron ki liquidation ke asarat se, jab bazar Federal Reserve ki meeting (January 30-31) aur anay wale U.S. maali data ke liye tayar hota hai. Yeh numaya girawat trader ki ehtiyaat aur mustaqbil ke bazar rukh ki dobara tashreef laye ka nateeja hai.

GMT 07:27 par, Chandni (XAG/USD) $22.18 par trade ho rahi hai, jisme $0.44 ya -1.96% ki girawat shamil hai.

Fed Speakers ki Asar Market Outlook par

Bazar ka bearish mahaul aam taur par pichle haftay ke Federal Reserve ke afraad ki tabsarahat se juda hua hai. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee aur Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, mukhtalif dosray, ne rate cuts ko madde nazar le kar mazeed infilaash data ki zarurat hone ki ishara ki, jise tisre quarter tak taakhir ka mawqaa ho sakta hai. Unki cautious attitude, rate adjustments ke liye ek ehtiyaati taur par buland hosla, turant mali easing ke liye ummeedon ko kamzor kar diya hai.

Mamoolan, sasta hone ka mutaala mahaul, Fed afraadon ki statement, chalti hui maali data releases aur puri duniya bhar ki maali soorat haal ke melap se chandni ke daamon par mazeed dabao ka zahiri sabab hai. Sarmaya dastaan aur karobarion ko in tabdili hone wale maali aur maashi isharaat ka jawab dene ke liye tayyar hona chahiye.


Daily Outlook:---

Chandni (XAG/USD), jis waqt $22.15 par trade ho rahi hai, abhi 200-day aur 50-day moving averages ke nichay hai, jo ke $23.56 aur $23.61 par set hain. Is tarteeb ka izhaar karti hai ke bazar mein bearish mahaul hai.

Maal $22.23 ke niche zara sa resistance level ke qareeb ghoom raha hai, jo ab mukhlis aaj ke trading rukh ke liye ek bunyadi point ka kaam karta hai.

Is level ko paar karne ka barqarar rahne par yeh dikhata hai ke ek bullish trend ki taraf shift ho sakti hai, jo ke mal main resistance $23.55 ko challenge kar sakti hai. Ulti soorat mein, is pivot ko paar na karne se chandni ke daam mukhlis taur par $20.66 ki bunyadi support ko test kar sakti hai.

Chandni ke liye mojood bazar ka mahaul bearish ki taraf lean hai, jis mein key moving averages aur ahem pivot point ke mutabiq iski position ka asar shamil hai.

GOLD FORECAST!

Gold market mein Monday ke trading session mein initial pullback hua, lekin phir support dikhaya. 50-day EMA thoda niche hai aur support provide karta hai, is market mein buyers milne ka trend chalta hai. $2,000 level ek major round number hai, aur is market mein volatility kaafi hoti hai, mainly due to interest rate markets aur central banks ke confusion ke karan.

Main central banks ko interest rates cut karte dekh raha hoon, isliye main gold mein bullish hoon. Yeh necessarily yeh nahi mean karta ki gold seedhe upar jaayega, lekin mujhe lagta hai ki yeh dip par buy mentality ko aur strengthen karega. $2,000 is waqt is market mein aapka floor hona chahiye, lekin yeh dekhna hoga ki yeh hold hota hai ya nahi.

Mujhe lagta hai ki $2,000 se lekar $1,980 tak ek support zone hai. Upside mein, main maanta hoon ki $2,075 level aapka short-term ceiling hai. Agar hum ise daily close karke break kar sakte hain, toh yeh ek bullish sign hoga, jisse gold mein buy and hold mentality ko aur strengthen mil sakta hai. Main yeh market choppy dekhta hoon lekin mainly upward trend ke saath, isliye main is market mein higher direction ki taraf dekhta hoon.

Ab, latest update ke mutabiq, gold ki price $2,029.83 ke neeche struggle kar rahi hai, jo ki ek key support level hai. Silver aur Copper bhi apne key technical levels mein bearish trends show kar rahe hain.

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

Fundamental outlook ke hisaab se, Asian markets mein gold prices Monday ko decline hui, mainly due to the U.S. Federal Reserve ke high interest rates ke expectations ke karan. Lekin despite this, gold key price points ke upar rahi, kyunki yeh ek safe-haven asset hai aur temporary dip in the U.S. dollar bhi hua. Copper prices bhi thoda gir gaye hain, primarily China ke economic rebound aur People's Bank of China ke decision ke karan.

Overall, gold ka current market performance thoda decline dikhata hai, technical front par $2,029.83 ke aas-paas navigate kar raha hai. Agar yeh level maintain karta hai, toh immediate resistance $2,040.02 par ho sakti hai, aur support levels $2,013.71 aur neeche ho sakte hain. Symmetrical triangle pattern indicate karta hai ki market consolidate ho rahi hai, with potential for breakout in either direction. Overall, gold ka current trajectory pivot point $2,029.83 ke neeche bearish dikh raha hai.

CRUDE OIL

CRUDE Technical Analysis:---

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ke technical analysis mein, market ne Monday ko initially girna shuru kiya, lekin phir se ubhar kar zindagi ke nishan dikhaya. Sab kuch barabar rahne par, main samajhta hoon ke market is par dhyan jari rakhega ek upward pressure attempt ke liye $75 ke level ko todne ki koshish karega. Agar hum $75 ke level ko tod sakte hain, to yeh mumkin hai ke hum 200 din ka EMA ki taraf dekhein.

Niche $71 ke level ke paas bahut saara support hai aur main nahi samajhta ke hum jald hi wahan girenge. Agar hum girte hain, to $68 absolute floor hoga. Us kshetra ke neeche girna badi nakaratmak hoga. Lekin main samajhta hoon ke yahan ek thoda sa basing pattern ban raha hai, aur main yeh bhi sochta hoon ke petrol ant mein palat jayega.



Brent Crude Oil ke technical analysis:---

crude oil market ne Monday ke trading session mein thoda sa pichhe hataya, lekin phir se zindagi ke nishan dikhaya.
Brent mein yehi cheez hai ki humne shuruwat mein thoda sa pichhe hataya, lekin phir se zindagi ke nishan dikhaya, shayad upar ki taraf 50 din ka EMA todne ki koshish karte hue. Agar hum wahan se upar jate hain, to $80.50 ke level ko agla resistance banata hai, jise aapko deal karna hoga. Us mahol mein, agar market wahan se upar jata hai, to 200 din ka EMA ki taraf jaane ki sambhavna khulti hai. Yeh, beshak, ek aisa indicator hai jo bahut dhyan khich lega.

Yahan tak ki bat ho rahi hai, main yeh samajhta hoon ke petrol ek aisi sthiti mein hoga jahan hum niche girne par aage badhte rahenge, aur ant mein upar ki taraf bahar nikalne ka mauka milega, lekin abhi humare paas gati nahi hai. Isliye, aapko ise har bar ek chhota samay ke kharidne ka avasar dekhna hoga jab bhi hum girte hain, lekin aapko gains ka fayda turant uthana hoga aur phir se dohrana hoga. Shayad yeh saal bhar ke liye yahi mamla hoga, isliye har bar jab aap crude oil market dekhein, ise dimaag mein rakhein.

SILVER FORECAST!

Chandi ka takhliqi manzar Monday ko bigar gaya jab isne naye retracement low tak gir kar ek wide range wali surkhi candle banai. Trading din ke nadir ke qareeb jari hai, lekin is likhne ke waqt kam se kam yeh 21.93 par hai. Wahan chhota sa support dekha gaya, jise ke ek chhota bounce ne follow kiya. 78.6% Fibonacci level par ek girte ABCD pattern ka support dekha gaya, jo market dwara pehchana gaya hai. Agar aaj ke low 21.93 ke neeche ja kar ABCD pattern ka continuation trigger hota hai, to silver agle target ke roop mein pattern ki puri completion par ja sakta hai jo 21.21 hai.

78.6% Extension Target Mukammal Hua
Pehle bhi baat cheet ki gayi thi, ABCD pattern ko Fibonacci ratios ke zariye extend kiya ja sakta hai. Ek standard target mein CD leg AB leg ke price change ke match hone wala hota hai. Iske alawa, CD ke saath 61.8% aur 78.6% Fibonacci levels harmonic relationship dikhate hain. Iska matlab hai ki ABCD pattern ke adhar par aaj ke low mein potential hai ki yeh ek bottom ho sakta hai. Lekin, charts ke andar dusre isharon mein silver ko lower support levels ko test karne ka khatra hai.

**Kam Hone Wale Price Levels Ki Khatra Mein Hai**
Aaj, silver ne ek trendline se breakdown trigger kiya, jisse lower trendlines ko pahunchne ka khatra hai. Aap dekh sakte hain ki 78.6% Fibonacci retracement 21.80 par lambe samay tak chhota sa uptrend line ke qareeb hai, jabki internal trendline 21.21 par ABCD pattern ke 100% completion ke saath match karne ke liye nazdeek hai. Har ek price level par silver agar uss low ke neeche gir jaata hai, toh wahaan support ke isharon ki ummid hai. Silver mein ek bada symmetrical triangle hai jo nevambar ke akhir mein ek false breakout dekha. Agar silver ek complete swing back poora karta hai, toh yeh 21.21 ke qareeb triangle ke neeche support test kar raha hoga.

**Deterioration Ke Isharon**
Mang ki taqat mein kamzori ke ishare 20-Day MA mein dekhe ja sakte hain, kyun ki hil hal 20-Day line haal hi mein 50 aur 200-Day moving averages ke neeche gir gayi hai. Aap dekh sakte hain ki 20-Day line kaise internal declining trendline ko pehchana rahi hai. Aaj ke clear bearish din ke baad, downside targets ko most likely test kiya jayega. Aaj ke lows se hone wale aur bhi bounces internal uptrend line ke aas-paas resistance mein ja sakte hain. Aaj ka high, yaani 22.66, us line ke liye proxy ke roop mein istemal kiya ja sakta hai.

CRUDE OIL FORECAST!

Early Oil Market Overview:--

Oil ke prices Tuesday ko mazboot rahe aur yeh supply aur demand ke complex factors ka ek mushkil ta'alluq dikhate hain. Traders abhi taqatwar geopolitical tensions aur mukhtalif global economic indicators se bharey huye manazir mein apni manzil talaash rahe hain.

06:56 GMT par, Light Crude Oil Futures $74.85 par hain, barh kar $0.09 ya +0.12%.

Geopolitical Tensions aur Supply Concerns!

Oil market Middle East mein hone wale waqeyat aur ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict ki taza khabron ka gehra nigaar hai. Haal hi mein Ukrainian drone strike ne Novatek ke Ust-Luga fuel export terminal par hamlay ko chand lamhon ke liye roka, jisey is ilaqa ki ahem energy infrastructure ki kamzoriyon ka nuqsan hua.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Kuch challenges ke bawajood, hum ne qareebi dor ke market fundamentals par bullish hone ka faisla kiya hai, jisme ongoing geopolitical conflicts aur recession ki pareshaniyon ki kami shaamil hai.

Magar, fundamental analysis ke bajaye, short-term oil prices ko mainly momentum factor ka asar hone ka intezar hai. Haal ki trends mein WTI crude prices ne apne 50-day moving average ke upar band hone ka bhi tasdeeq diya hai, jo ke bullish sentiment ki taraf isharat karti hai.

CL Technical Analysis:---

Maujooda daily Light Crude Oil Futures ke price 74.79 hai jo ke pichli close 74.76 ke muqablay mein thoda sa barh gaya hai, jisse thora sa upward movement nazar aata hai.

Yeh price 50-day moving average 73.75 ke upar hai, jisey short-term bullish sentiment ki alamat ho sakti hai. Lekin yeh 200-day moving average 76.54 ke neeche hai, jo ke long-term bearish pressure ko darust kar sakta hai.

Maujooda price minor resistance level 77.43 ke qareeb hai, aur is par breakthrough bullish momentum ko darust kar sakta hai. Ulta, main support 66.85 ke qareeb girne se bearish trends ko mazeed mazbooti mil sakti hai.

In factors ke mawafiq, market sentiment short term mein ehtiyaat se bullish nazar aati hai lekin key moving averages aur resistance levels ke qareeb hone ki wajah se long term mein ghair yaqeeni hai.

BTC USD

Spot BTC-ETF ke manzoori aur maqami buland maqam ki taza update ke ek hafta se zyada guzar gaya hai. Is doran cryptocurrency ki keemat $48.9k se $40k tak giri hai, alag alag investoron ki portfolios ki farokht ke baiys se. Yeh amal pichle haftay mein shuru hua, lekin umeed afzana jazbaat ki bina par khareed-dar ne tawazun banaye rakh saka aur BTC ke azad volumes ko apne andar samaa leta raha.

Magar farokht ki raftaar ne badi had tak barh gayi, jisme institutional investors aur miners bhi shaamil hain. Saath hi, maaliyat ke marketon ne samajhna shuru ki mustaqil tanazzulat aur riyasati siyasat mein izafay ki tezi ka tawakkul nahi hai. In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue Bitcoin ki keemat girne ka silsila jari raha, aur 22 January tak cryptocurrency ne $40k ke level ko neeche gira diya.



**BTC/USD Analysis**

22 January ke mutabiq, Bitcoin ne consolidation aur $40.5k ke level ko todne ki kai koshishon ke baad ek bada bearish candle banaya. Aakhir mein, klidi support zone gir gaya, jo ke yeh darust karta hai ke October 2023 mein shuru hui urdu trend ki dhancha khatre mein hai. Technically, Bitcoin ab tak support level par hai, lekin agar trading day $40k ke neeche khatam hoti hai, to mazeed girawat ke imkanat badi hud se barh jayenge.

**Technical Metrics**

Technical metrics khareed-dar ki faalat ke ishaarat nahi dikha rahe hain; balke, woh mukammal tor par farokht karne ki nishaani dete hain. Stochastic oversold zone mein apni neeche ki taraf jaari hai, aur MACD ne laal zone mein dakhil ho gaya hai, jo ke poori tarah se bearish dominion ko ishara karta hai. Agar $40k ke neeche mazbooti se consolidate ho jata hai aur aur mazeed girawat hoti hai, to bhale hi bears $38k ke qareeb jane ka irada kar sakte hain, jahan lamba waqt tak jama ho gaya tha.

**Possibilities**

Pessimism ke bawajood, yeh mumkin hai ke $40k ke level ka tod zaroori tha taa ke $150 million tak pohnch gayi liquidity ikhatti ki jaye. Is liye BTC/USD ke daam mein $40k ke upar ek pump hone ki mumkinat hai. Is ke alawa, yeh bhi yaad nahi karna chahiye ke America mein mazdoori market aur karobar ki faaliyat ke bare mein ahem macroeconomic statistics aane wale hain. Ye waqia bhi cryptocurrency market mein umeed phir se laa sakta hai aur khareed-dari ke jazbaat ko mazboot kar sakta hai.

**Conclusions**

Mozuie tijarat aaj ka din Bitcoin ki keemat ke mustaqbil ke raaste ka faisla karne mein ahem hosakti hai. Agar BTC/USD $40k ke neeche consolidate ho jata hai, to $38k aur neeche girne ke imkanat mazeed barh jayenge. Lekin agar bull situation ko palat lete hain aur BTC ko $40k ke upar phir se qaim kar lete hain, to yeh Bitcoin ki bullish trend mein aetimad ko wapas laa sakta hai aur correction ko mukammal karne ke liye zaroori khareedariyon ki volumes ko barha sakta hai.

GOLD FORECAST!

Din do mai teesre roz, sonay ki kimat ne 20-Din MA (jamni) ke aas-paas rukawat ko azmaaya, jabke Mangalwar ko 2,038 par uncha hua, ek zyada din ka uncha aur uncha neeche daal raha hai. Yeh bhi 50-Din MA (santri) ko sahayata ke roop mein azmaa raha hai. 50-Din ki rekha ne kuch dino tak sahayata di hai. Aaj ki keemat ka amal sonay ke chart mein thoda sa tabdil kar deta hai kyun ki yeh kal ki unchi 2,032 ke upar gaya, jo naye ishara hai ki haal hi mein hui kamzori ka bounce 2,002 par aur bhi tezi ke saath ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, isse rukawat hai. Kal ki unchi 2,032 ke upar ek din band ho jaane par, uss keemat ke neeche band hone se zyada taqat hai.

20-Din Moving Average Ka Samna:--

2,041 par 20-Din MA pehla rukawat star hai sath hi sath ghataak rekha. Agar sona 20-Din ki rekha ke upar band ho jaata hai, toh agla muqabla karna padega haal hi mein hui unchi 2,062 (C) aur phir 2,088 (A) ke tezi ke saath. Jald hi ittelaat ke mutabiq gudaa sona ek sametrik tirchhi mein pahunch raha hai jahan do trendlines 2,033 par cross hoti hain. Aur yeh bhi hai ke 20-Din aur 50-Din MAs mein ek hee tarah ka range compression pattern dikhate hain. Kamzori ke baad aksar tez raftaar aati hai, jo jaldi mein upar ya neeche ki taraf nikal sakti hai.

Agar Sona Phir Se Gir Jaaye, Toh Kam Ke Daam!

Sona ne apne unchi trend ke daam ko ek sath rakhne ki koshish ki hai. Haal hi mein 50-Din MA aur andaruni trendline ke aas-paas sahayata ki ja rahi hai. Agar kal ki kamzori 2,106 ke neeche jaati hai, toh sona 50-Din ki rekha ke neeche ho jaayega. Agar woh wahan rukta hai, toh haal hi ki kamzori 2,002 par ek azmaish hogi aur shayad 1,973 (D) par ek giravat poori karne ke liye gir sakta hai. Aur neeche ek mahatvapurn sahayata zone hai 1,973 se 1,964 tak jo 50% punarvritti aur 200-Din MA se milta hai. Iske liye aur saboot hai ki 1,967 par ek vistarit ABCD pattern poori ho rahi hai. CD pair ko AB pair ko 1.272% Fibonacci anuprayukt karke milakar hasil kiya gaya hai.



GOld ki qeemat EMA50 ke aas paas phir se tezi se badal rahi hai, intezar hai ke intraday aur short-term basis par muntazir bullish wave ko dobara shuru kare, jo mainly 2065.70 ko visit karne ki taraf hai.
2038.50 ko todna muntazir barhne ki mission ko asaan karay ga, jo ke stochastics ki musbatiyat ki support se hai, yaad rakhain ke 2065.70 ko todna musbat manzarnama ko rokay ga aur phir sone ki qeemat ko dobara correctional bearish dabao ke teht laa dega, 1977.46 ilaqaat ki taraf jane ke liye.
Aaj ke liye muntazir trading range 2010.00 support aur 2045.00 resistance ke darmiyan hai.
Aaj ka muntazir trend: Bullish

EUR USD FORECAST!

H-4 Time Frame Outlook:---

European session mein, euro 1.0859 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai, 21 ke neeche aur 200 EMA ke neeche. H4 chart mein, hum dekh sakte hain ki EUR/USD ek bearish channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, jo February 28 se ban raha hai. Bearish cycle aane wale ghanton mein dobara shuru hone ki ummeed hai aur Euro 0/8 Murray ke aas paas 1.0742 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Euro ke paas 1.0862 par mazboot resistance ki ek sequence hai, 21 SMA ke aas-paas 1.0881, 200 EMA ke aas-paas, aur ant mein, downtrend channel ke top ke saath 1.0905 ke aas-paas.



Euro ko ek mazboot resistance area ka samna hai, agar EUR/USD ise consolidate karne mein asafalta hota hai aur agar ye downtrend channel ko todne mein asafalta hota hai, to hum ise bearish cycle dobara shuru hone ki ummeed kar sakte hain aur trend channel ke neeche 1.0750 ke aas-paas pahunchne ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

Market sentiment report mein dikhaya gaya hai ki 54.2% traders euro ko khareed rahe hain. Ye sankhya pichle haftay ke mukable mein badh rahi hai. Agar EUR/USD pair khareedne wale traders ka percentage aur badhta hai, to hum ise aane wale dino mein 1.0750 tak pahunchte hue dekh sakte hain.

Eagle indicator ek negative signal de raha hai. Hum ek line draw kar sakte hain jo downtrend channel ki taakat ko darust karti hai. Agar euro aane wale ghanton mein 1.0910 ke neeche trade karta hai, to koi bhi technical bounce ek bechne ka avsar ban sakta hai.

GBP/USD

Daily Forecast:---
Kal, British pound ne apne upper shadow ke saath 1.2745 ke target level ko chhooa aur phir daily chart par balance indicator line ke neeche wapas gaya. Marlin oscillator restrained reaction ke saath react kiya, aur pichle paanch dinon se apna horizontal movement maintain kiya. Pound aaj ke Asian session mein badh raha hai, balance line ke resistance ko paar karne ki koshish kar raha hai.

Price 1.2745 ko dobara paar karne ki koshish karegi. Global 16-year price channel ka upper boundary 1.2890 ke aas-paas price ko khinch raha hai.4-hour chart mein, Marlin oscillator ka signal line kal ke anjaane drop ke baad jaldi se positive territory mein wapas gaya.

Agar price MACD line (1.2700) ke upar lautti hai, to ye confirm karega ki kal ka bearish maneuver ek galat signal tha. Price ko 1.2610 ke support ko test karne ke liye, ise kal ke low 1.2648 ko paar karna hoga. Tab tak, price galat signals generate karegi.

SILVER FORECAST!

Chandi nay Wednesday ko aik taqatwar session dekha, jab hum nay $22.50 ke level ko behtar taur par todiya, jo ke $22 ke support region se acha raha. Silver markets ki technical analysis ke mutabiq, $22 ab bhi ahem support pesh karega, aur hamara tawun ab yeh dikhata hai ke chandi mazeed buland ja rahi hai. Agla maqam 200-day EMA hai, jo ke $23.20 ke qareeb hai, phir iske baad, $23.50 ke level ke qareeb kuch structural resistance hai. Is wajah se thora sa rukawat bhi hosakti hai, lekin main samajhta hoon ke yeh girawat aik buying opportunity ban jayegi.

Daily Time Frame Outlook:---

Dekhna hoga ke kya hum $23.50 ke level ko paar kar sakte hain, kyun ke yeh ek mazeed move ko $24.50 ke level ki taraf khol sakta hai. Agar $24.50 ke level ko todiya gaya, to yeh aik aur move ko $26 ke level ki taraf khol deta hai, jo ke mujhe lagta hai ke yeh saal bhar ke overall consolidation phase ka top hai.

Niche jaane par, agar hum $22 ke level ko tod dein, to hum $21 ke level ki taraf move kar sakte hain, lekin ab yeh kamzor hota ja raha hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke yahan ek sitara hai jahan market participants dips ko continue karenge khareedna, lekin aapko bhi interest rates par nazar rakhni chahiye kyun ke silver aur interest rates ke darmiyan ek manfi taalluq hai. Is ke ilawa, silver aur US dollar ke darmiyan bhi ek manfi taalluq hai.

Amum taur par, main yeh sochta hoon ke yeh short term ke liye acha hai. Yeh dekhna hoga ke kya chandi lambi muddat ke liye ek buying hold trade banati hai, is par hamain dekhne mein intezaar karna hoga. Lekin silver ki economic aur industrial demand ka bhi asar hai, isay ek industrial dhaat bhi kaha jata hai. Toh yeh kuch na-maool baat nahin hai. Agar aap is market mein hissa lena chahte hain, toh yeh yaad rakhein ke silver bohot zyada volatile hai. Is liye aapko apni position size ko kam az kam maqool had tak rakhna chahiye, kyun ke silver kisi bhi waqt bohot zyada tezi se hil sakta hai aur aapke portfolio ko nuqsaan pohancha sakta hai agar aap savdhan nahin hain.

USD JPY FORECAST!
Kal ki mazboot data, yaani, US PCE keemat index, ne US dollar ko khareedne ka sab se bada sabab banaya jo yen ko neeche daba diya. Aaj, bekarar hone ka aghaz ho chuka hai jab be-rozgar ki dar aur Japan ki manufacturing PMI ke figures pehle se hi jaari kar diye gaye hain. Data poori tarah consensus se mila aur yen ko kisi bhi position ko wapas hasil karne mein madad nahi ki. Saaf hai, dollar apne ek saal ke uchchatam ko update karne ki taraf ja raha hai, jahan use be-shumar farokht karnay walay ke faal amal ka samna karna parega. Agar saamaan din ke pehle hisse mein girta hai, toh main 150.32 ke nazdeeki support ke aas paas ka amal karon ga, jo aaj bana hai. Magar umeed is level ki kamzori hai. Sirf wahan ek jhooti pharar banane ki shakal mein mojoodgi mukhtasir waqar mein long positions kholne ke liye munasib shara'it peda karegi jo 150.82 ki taraf naye surge ki tawaqo rakhti hai. Is area se breakthrough aur ulta test jo upar se neeche ki taraf ho, ek aur acha option dollar khareedne ka sujhaaw dega. Natija, USD/JPY 151.21 ke area tak chad sakta hai. Uchchatam maqsad 151.55 ke area mein hoga, jahan main munafa hasil karne ka iraada rakhta hoon. USD/JPY ke girne aur 150.32 pe koi gatividhi na hone ke surat mein, jo zyada haqeeqati hai, US dollar dobara farokht dabaw mein aayega. Ye 149.98 ke nazdeeki daman par ek halka zatka laayega. Magar sirf wahan ek jhooti pharar ke baad long positions kholne ka sujhaaw dega. Main sirf 149.65 ke aas paas ek kam prices pe USD/JPY kharidne ka iraada rakhta hoon, yad rakhte hue ke din ke andar USD/JPY ka 30-35 pips ka tajziya hoga.

USD/JPY apne kal ke up-trend ko extend karta hai, toh bearers ka presence sirf 150.82 ke ek saal ke uchchatam ke aas paas zahir hoga, jis par main bharosa rakhta hoon. Ek jhooti pharar wahan suitable shara'it hogi short positions kholne ke liye, naya nichale support 150.32 ki taraf girne ke liye, jahan, neeche ke moving averages buyers ki taraf se favor hai. Is range ka breakthrough aur ulta test neeche se oopar ka zyada serious nuqsan buyers ke positions par lagayega, buyers ke stop loss ko trigger karega aur rasta khol dega 149.98 ki taraf, jo pair ke upward potential ko mukhtasir kar dega, US dollar mein kami ke chances ko barha kar, USD/JPY ko kam karne ke liye. Sab se kam maqsad 149.65 hoga, jahan main munafa hasil karne ka iraada rakhta hoon. Agar USD/JPY mein izafa ho aur 150.82 pe farokht gatividhi ka koi asar na ho, toh khareedne walon ne poori tarah se bazaar ko apne under mein le liya hai. Is surat mein, behtar hai short positions ko taalne tak aglay rukawat 151.21 pe test kiya jaye. Agar wahan se neeche ki taraf koi gatividhi na ho, toh main foran 151.55 se rebound pe USD/JPY bechunga, ek din ke andar USD/JPY ka 30-35 pips ka tajziya karne ke bilkul yaqeen rakhta hoon.




COT REPORT:---

COT report (Commitment of Traders) ke mutabiq, February 20 ko, short positions mein izafa hua aur long positions mein kami aayi. Bohat se traders 150 yen per dollar mehnga samajhte hain, aur wazeh hai ke Bank of Japan wahan interfere karne ka aghaz karta hai, lekin abhi tak farokht ke koi bhi wajood nahi hain. Isliye, trading futures market ke positions ki dynamics se saabit hoti hai. Taza COT report ke mutabiq, ghair-tijaratmand long positions 4,692 se 53,862 tak ghata, jabke ghair-tijaratmand short positions 4,550 se 174,640 tak barh gaye. Natija yeh hai ke long aur short positions ke darmiyan farq 2,115 se zyada bara ho gaya hai.

EUR USD ANALYSIS!

EUR/USD pair ne Thursday ko aik reversal ki taraf barh kar US dollar ke favor mein gir gaya, jiski wajah se wo 1.0797 ke darje tak pohanch gaya, jo ke 1.0785 ke darje ke sath ek aur support zone banaata hai. Haal hi mein, chart par kai mazeed levels bane hain. Euro ek tang qeemat ke range mein hai, jismein wo barabar naye levels of support aur resistance dhoond raha hai. 1.0785–1.0797 ke zone se palatna European currency ke favor mein kaam karega aur 61.8% corrective level 1.0883 ki taraf barhne ka silsila dobara shuru hoga.

Lahar situation kaafi wazeh hai. Aakhri mukammal ooper ki taraf ki lahroon ne purani wave ki chhati (February 12 se) ko bharosa mandi se tor diya, lekin is waqt, mein ise mukammal samajhta hoon. Is tarah, humare paas halat mein "bullish" trend hai, aur iska koi lahrein ka pehla nishan nahi hai. Magar agar corridor ke neeche quotes ko jama karne ka pehla nishan samjha jaye to ye bulon ka pehla peecha karne ka pehla nishan samjha jaa sakta hai. Qareebi mustaqbil mein, mein ek taaluki wave ka construction neeche ki taraf intezar kar raha hoon, jo "bullish" trend ko nahi todega. Magar agar agle ooper ki taraf ki wave February 22 se peak ko torne mein na kaamyaab hoti hai, to hum "bearish" trend ki pehli wave ka nishan mil jaega.



Thursday par maloomati background mukhtalif tha, lekin aaj Jumeraat hai, aur background kam dilchasp nahi hoga. Mere khayal mein, euro ke liye aaj ka sab se ahem tareen hawala euro ki February mein mawaad ki report hogi. Kal humein maloom hua ke Germany mein mahangi 2.5% tak gir gayi hai. Aaj, European inflation bhi wahi shumar dikha sakti hai (ya phir kam bhi). Mere khayal mein, forecast ki izteraar ya us se kam shumar phirno ke liye 1.0785–1.0797 ke support zone ko torne mein madad karega, jo European currency ki mazeed kami ka sabab banega. Din ke doosre hisse mein, mein mashwara deta hoon ke USA mein ISM index par tawajjo di jaaye.


H-4 Time Frame Outlook!

4 ghanton ke chart par, pair ne 50.0%–1.0862 corrective level se naye rebound ko mukammal kiya. Is tarah, US dollar ke favor mein ek reversal ko mukammal kiya gaya, aur ek 38.2%–1.0765 corrective level ki taraf kami ka aghaz hua. 1.0862 ke darje ke upar mustaqil hone se 61.8%–1.0959 corrective level ki taraf barhne ke ihtimal mein izafa ho jata hai. Aaj kisi bhi indicator ke liye emerging divergences nahi hain.

BITCOIN WEEKLY FORECAST!

Bitcoin kuch aas pass 62,500 ke qareeb trade ho raha hai. Yeh darja 5/8 Murray ke sath milta hai jo ek mazboot range zone ko darust karta hai. Bitcoin aane wale dino mein qareeb 63,000 se lekar 50,000 tak ka safar kar sakta hai.

Haftawar ki chart dikhata hai ke Bitcoin ne ek mazboot uptrend ka vikas kiya hai aur aane wale dino mein iska izafa jari rahega. Keemat 65,000 tak aur shayad $70,000 ke landmark tak pahunch sakti hai.
Agar BTC agle kuch ghanton mein izafa karta rahe, to ummeed hai ke yeh 11 April 2021 ke buland maqam tak pahunchega, jo qareeb 64,754 hai. Yeh darja ek mazboot rukawat ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai aur sakht inkaar ka samna kar sakta hai.

Haftawar ki chart par dekha gaya hai ke Bitcoin mazboot rukawat ke daire mein trade kar raha hai jo peechle mein mazboot rukawat ke tor par kaam karta tha. Chart par dekha gaya hai ke BTC ne 2021 mein 64,754 ke neeche gir kar lagbhag 30K ki mazboot correction ki thi.
Is assumption ke mutabiq, sambhav hai ke BTC agle kuch hafton mein manasik darje ke $50,000 ki taraf lautega aur 21 SMA jo 41,589 par maujood hai, tak pahunch sakta hai.

Technical tor par, hamara strategy 62,500 ke neeche bechna ho sakta hai 5/8 Murray ke neeche, 58,450, $54,000 aur aakhir mein, 4/8 Murray ke qareeb lagbhag $50,000 par targets ke sath.
Agar BTC 2021 ke buland maqam tak pahunchta hai jo qareeb 64,700 hai aur is ilaake ke upar mazbooti se consolidate nahin hota, to yeh bhi ek bechnay ka signal ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai.




ETH USD FORECAST!

Amreeki session ke shurwat mein, ETH/USD 3,428.28 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai ek mazboot uptrend ke sath jo haftawar ki chart par dekha gaya hai.
ETH ne $3,517 ka buland maqam tak pahuncha hai. Yeh ek manasik darja hai jo 2,021 ke rukawat darjat ke sath milta hai. Is liye, mumkin hai ke Ether aane wale dino mein mazbooti se technical correction karegi jiska nishana 5/8 Murray (3,125) par hoga. Token shayad top of the uptrend channel tak pahunch sake jo manasik darje $3,000 ke aas paas toota tha.

ETH ke paas 3,750 ke qareeb 6/8 Murray par mazboot rukawat hai. Agar Ether agle kuch dinon mein apna uptrend jari rakhta hai, to hume ummeed hai ke yeh ilaqa pahunchega. Yeh ek acha point ho sakta hai bechnay ke liye kyun ke token daily aur 4-hour charts ke mutabiq mazbooti se overbought hai.
Agar ETH manasik darja 3,500 ke neeche gir jata hai, to correction jari rahega jab tak ke keemat manasik darja $3,000 tak na pahunch jaye. Jab yeh darja tor diya jaye ga, tab ETH apni bullish cycle ko jari rakhti hai 4/8 Murray ke taraf se.

Hamara trading plan aane wale dino ke liye haftawar ki chart ke mutabiq hoga, jisme Ether ko 3,500 ke neeche bechna hoga, nishane 3,291, 3,125, aur manasik darja $3,000 par honge.

GOLD FORECAST!

Sonay ke daam qareeb 2,045.91 ke aas paas chal raha hai, 3/8 Murray ke neeche, 21 SMA ke oopar, aur 200 EMA ke oopar. Kal sonay ne February 14 se shuru hone wale uptrend channel ke neeche se bounce kiya aur weekly high lagbhag 2,050 tak pahuncha.


H-4 Time Frame Outlook!

Hal mein, hum sonay mein ek technical correction dekh rahe hain. Aane wale ghanton mein correction jari rahega. Agar dhaat 3/8 Murray ke neeche consolidate hota hai, to yeh 21 SMA tak pahunch sakta hai jo 2,035 par sthit hai, ya fir uptrend channel ke bottom ke aspaas jo 2,032 par hai. Ek technical rebound ho sakta hai aur daam 4/8 Murray tak pahunch sakta hai jo 2,062 hai.

Uptrend channel ka tez tootne aur 2,031 aur 2,026 ke neeche consolidate hone ki sthiti mein hi hum ek bearish acceleration ka ummidvaar ho sakte hain. Is tarah, daam 2,015, $2,000 aur ant mein 1,984 tak pahunch sakta hai.

Agar sona 2,032 ke oopar consolidate karta hai, tab hi outlook sonay ke liye sakaratmak reh sakta hai, phir koi bhi technical rebound kharidne ka sanket samjha jayega jiska nishkarsh 2,062 hoga.



Udharan ke roop mein, agar sona 2,031 ke neeche jaata hai aur nakaratmak ho jaata hai, to humara outlook negative ho sakta hai. Chhoti avadhi mein, sona manasik star $2,000 ki taraf gir sakta hai. February 22 se, eagle indicator overbought zone mein raha hai jo aane wale dino mein giravat ko prathamikta deta hai.

EUR USD Analysis!

Euro lagbhag 1.0812 ke aas paas chal raha hai, 200 EMA ke neeche, 21 SMA ke neeche, aur mazboot bearish dabav ke neeche 1.0864 (2/8 Murray) ke neeche. H4 chart dikhata hai ki Euro ek samatal tirchha chinha pattern ke andar chal raha hai. Is tarah, EUR/USD aane wale dino mein consolidate hone ka silsila jaari rahega.


H-4 Time Frame Outlook!

Yeh samatal tirchha chinha pattern humein channel ke andar kharid aur bechne ki anumati deta hai jo ki support aur resistance ke roop mein kaam karta hai. EUR/USD ka range area 1.0800 aur 1.0840 ke beech hai jab tak uska trend tay nahin hota.

Agar samatal tirchha chinha pattern ke tez tootne aur din-pratidin chart par 1.0790 ke neeche band hone ki sthiti hoti hai, to hum euro ko -1/8 Murray par 1.0681 tak pahunchne ka ummid karte hain.


Agar euro 200 EMA ke oopar consolidate karta hai aur 1.0830 aur technical pattern ke oopar breakout hota hai, to euro 1.0890, 3/8 Murray par 1.0925 aur ant mein, 1.10 ki mansik star ki taraf rebound kar sakta hai.

Hamara trading plan yeh hai ki pattern ke andar kharid aur bechne ke liye ya fir kisi bhi disha mein kisi bhi pullback ka intezar karna aur trading nirnay lene ka jo daam darshata hai, us anusaar.

CRUDE OIL

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis:

WTI ke crude oil market ne is haftay mein kafi ziada izafa kiya, jaisa ke lag raha hai ke $80 ke darja ko mazbooti se dekha ja raha hai. $80 ke darja ka tohfiqan aik bara gol adad hai aur bohot se log soch rahe hain ke agar hum $80 ke darja ko torh sakte hain, to phir main samajhta hoon ke aik wazahat ban jaati hai ke bohot se log FOMO trading shuru kar dete hain, logon ko peechay karte hue, aur phir agle lamha mein, hum khud ko $95 tak jaate hue paate hain. Ye jaldi ho ya der se, humain dekhna padega, lekin be-shak lag raha hai ke tail kuch bhi karke bahar nikalne ki koshish kar raha hai, is liye mujhe dips khareedne ka man hai.

Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis:

Brent, abhi bilkul waisi trading kar raha hai, $84.50 ke darja main nay sochta hai ke ye aik bara rukawat ka bazaar hai jo ek bar torha gaya to bohot se logon ko chaspani ki azadi mil sakti hai. Aur us waqt, hum asal mein bohot se momentum dakhil hoti hui dekh sakte hain. Is maamlay mein, ye $95 ke darja ko kholti hai.

Main samajhta hoon ke ye ek bazaar hai jo WTI ke saath bohot mutanazza hai ke log sirf lamha pe lamha intezar kar rahe hain ke lambay daur pe dakhil hon aur agar aur jab ye torha gaya, main samajhta hoon ke bohot se short covering bhi hogi. Is waqt bohot se supply ke lehaz se pareshaniyan hain. Aur phir bila shuba, jazeeraat unchi, aur mazeed khauf ke bunyadi kiemat bhi.

Weekly Forecast!

In factors ko mad e nazar rakhte hue, tail market ka chand nigahein bullish ki taraf milti hain. OPEC+ ke cuts ke mazeed tanveer, U.S. production trends, aur surkhiyon mein mojood geopolitics tensions Red Sea ilaqe mein buland qeemat ko support karne wale hain. Lekin, global ma'ashiyati isharay aur U.S. se mukhtalif karobari imtiazat se paida hone wale tail ke supply ka nizaam, bazaar mein shadeed khalisness ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Ikhtataam mein, tail bazaar aik ahem manzil par hai, aanay wale OPEC+ faislay aur mustaqbil ki ma'ashi data ke bartaraf hone wale imtiazat market ke qareebi manzil ko shakhsiyat denay wale hai.