ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

ar upward pressure aa raha hai jabkay investors closely Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy stance ko dekh rahe hain. Dosray quarter mein strong wage growth ke bawajood, RBA ke Governor Michele Bullock ne aglay chhay maheenon mein rate cuts ke imkaan ko rad kar diya hai. Bullock ne yeh wazeh kiya ke Australian central bank inflation ke khatrey par hamesha nazar rakhta hai aur agar zarurat hui to rates mazeed barhane ke liye tayar hai. Iss waqt AUD/USD pair 0.6939 ke area ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo market ka Australian Dollar par confidence reflect karta hai. Australia ke Treasurer Jim Chalmers ne RBA ke iss analysis par ehtiraz kiya ke mulk ki economy bohat zyada mazboot hai. RBA ka ye yaqeen hai ke government ke baray budgets inflation ko lambi muddat tak barqarar rakhnay mein hissa daal rahe hain, lekin Chalmers ka kehna hai ke economy central bank ke khayalat se zyada balanced hai. Iss ikhtilaf ne investors ke liye mazeed complexity paida kar di hai jo mulk ke economy ke mustaqbil aur Australian Dollar ki value ke baray mein andaza lagane ki koshish kar rahe hain. AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

US Dollar ko masail ka samna hai jab ke Wednesday ko Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release hone ke baad July ki US inflation rate mein miyana darja ka izafa dekhne ko mila. Iss ne investors mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke aglay qadam ke baray mein speculation ko janam diya. Traders ka ziada tawaqo hai ke September mein ek halka 25 basis point rate cut hoga, jiska imkaan 60% hai, lekin CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 50 basis point cut ka bhi 36% imkaan hai. Aanay walay US Initial Jobless Claims aur Retail Sales data ko bhi anticipate kiya ja raha hai jo market sentiment ko mazeed asar daal sakta hai.

Speculation mein mazeed izafa karte huay, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid ne kaha ke agar inflation subdued rahi to monetary policy ko reduce karna "munasib" ho sakta hai. Schmid ne point out kiya ke abhi Fed ki policy itni restrictive nahi hai aur halan ke Fed apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb hai, lekin ab tak apna maqsood pura nahi kiya. Iss outlook ne US monetary policy ke mustaqbil par mukhtalif rai paida ki hai, khas tor par jab ke global economy

pohoncha. Halanki pichle mahine unemployment rate barh gaya, magar labor market ki overall taqat ne currency ko barqarar rakha. Sath hi, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy ne Australian Dollar ko stabilize karne mein madad di, jiski wajah se yeh ab tak resilient raha hai. **Economic Indicators ka Asar Australian Dollar par**

Australia ka Westpac Consumer Confidence August mein 2.8% barh gaya, jo ke July ke 1.1% decline se recover kar gaya. Sath hi, Wage Price Index steady raha aur doosray quarter mein 0.8% ka izafa dekhne ko mila, halanki yeh market ke 0.9% ke expectation se thoda kum tha. In economic indicators ka mila-jula asar yeh zahir karta hai ke mulk ki economy ab bhi mazboot hai, halan ke labor market aur wages ke hawale se kuch uncertainties mojood hain.

**RBA Forecast Mein Tabdeeli**

Evolving economic conditions ko dekhte hue, Westpac ne apna forecast update kiya hai. Ab wo pehli interest rate cut ki umeed February 2025 mein kar rahe hain, jo pehle November 2024 ka andaza tha. Iske ilawa, Westpac ne apna terminal rate forecast barhake 3.35% kar diya hai, jo pehle 3.10% tha. RBA ka yeh zyada ehtiyaati rukh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke wo pehli rate cuts karne se pehle zyada mazboot economic growth ka saboot chahta hai, jo market mein future monetary policy ke hawale se speculation ko barhawa de raha hai.

**US Inflation Data ke Intizar Mein**

Dunya bhar ke investors ab US inflation data par nazar rakhe hue hain, jo ke market mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate cuts ke hawale se speculation ko badi asarandaaz karne wala hai. Ab tak CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, September ke meeting mein 50 basis points (bp) rate cut ka 54.5% imkaan hai. Is speculation ne AUD/USD pair ke liye milay-julay signals diye hain, aur traders ab tak clarity ka intezar kar rahe hain ke US monetary policy kis simt jaegi.

**AUD/USD Pair ke Key Technical Levels**

Yeh pair foran support face kar raha hai ascending channel ke lower boundary par, jo ke 0.6870 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh pair is support level se neechey break karta hai, tou yeh nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ko test karega jo ke 0.6929 par hai, aur phir throwback level 0.6900 tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh levels ke neechey barqaraar rehta hai, tou yeh

Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ki price performance ka tajziya karenge. AUD/USD pair ab bhi decline ki tendency rakhta hai. Halaanki aik impulsive price hike hui hai, lekin yeh secondary response hai. Observation dikhata hai ke jab price ne 0.6660 ka low hit kiya, to price EMA 50 ke upar utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai.
Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai.
Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota hai, to yeh (B) ke liye kafi nahi hoga. Is surat mai hum isay aik nayi wave 4 (A) ya wave ((ii)) 5 consider kar sakte hain, jo aik aur wave (A) selloff ka sabab banayegi.

i decline ki tendency rakhta hai. Halaanki aik impulsive price hike hui hai, lekin yeh secondary response hai. Observation dikhata hai ke jab price ne 0.6660 ka low hit kiya, to price EMA 50 ke upar utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai. Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai.
Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota hai, to yeh (B) ke liye kafi nahi hoga. Is surat mai hum isay aik nayi wave 4 (A) ya wave ((ii)) 5 consider kar sakte hain, jo aik aur w

Good Morning to All Invest Social Members! Umeed hai ke aap sab khairiyat se hain aur is platform par apna waqt acha guzaar rahe hain. Aaj main AUD/USD currency pair ke hawalay se kuch insights share karna chahta hoon, khaaskar uske recent price movements ko daily (D1) time frame mein dekhte hue. Guzishta do se teen mahine mein, AUD/USD pair ne ek mazboot upward trajectory dikhayi hai, jo daily time frame chart par consistently ek ascending channel ke andar move kar raha hai. Yeh upward movement market mein ek robust bullish sentiment ka izhar karta hai, jo traders aur investors ke darmiyan increased buying interest ko reflect karta hai.

Ascending channel pattern yeh suggest karta hai ke price higher highs aur higher lows establish kar rahi hai, jo un logon ke liye ek positive signal hai jo is pair mein invest karne ke hawalay se soch rahe hain. Is dauran price ka sustained increase kai factors ki wajah se hai, jismein Australia ke favorable economic conditions aur market sentiment mein tabdeeli shamil hain. Ek key driver jo iss bullish trend ke peeche hai, wo Australian economy ki resilience hai, jo recent challenges se recovery ke asar dikhati hai. Improved commodity prices, khaaskar iron ore aur coal ke prices mein behtari, Australian dollar ko boost dene mein madadgar sabit hui hain. Is ke ilawa, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki monetary policy ka stance bhi crucial role ada karta hai, jahan interest rate decisions aur economic forecasts AUD ki strength ko support karte hain.

Aur saath hi, global economic conditions, jaise ke major economies mein interest rates aur inflation levels mein tabdeeli, bhi AUD/USD exchange rate ko influence karti hain. Jab traders news aur economic data releases par react karte hain, toh humein increased volatility dekhne ko milti hai, jo aksar savvy investors ke liye opportunities pesh karti hai. Aagey jaake, key support aur resistance levels ko monitor karna zaroori hoga jo iss ascending channel ke andar hain, aur koi bhi aisi economic data jo Australian dollar ko impact kar sakti ho. Global markets aur economic indicators mein developments par nazar rakhna bhi critical hoga taake informed trading decisions liye ja sakein.

AUD/USD ne guzishta kuch mahino mein ek notable upward movement dikhayi hai, aur iss trend ke contributing factors ko samajhna future investments ke liye valuable insights de sakta hai. Khush rahiye, trading mazeed aur umeed hai ke aapke investments positive returns hasil karein!

ki tendency rakhta hai. Halaanki aik impulsive price hike hui hai, lekin yeh secondary response hai. Observation dikhata hai ke jab price ne 0.6660 ka low hit kiya, to price EMA 50 ke upar utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai. Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai. Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota hai, to yeh (B) ke liye kafi nahi hoga. Is surat mai hum isay aik nayi wave 4 (A) ya wave ((ii)) 5 consider kar sakte hain, jo aik aur w

relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham wave ka nateeja hoga, jo humein 0.6952 tak le ja sakta hai. Yeh ek strong opportunity hogi AUD/USD sell karne ke liye, aur 0.690 se sell positions initiate ki ja sakti hain agar pair mazeed upar jata hai. Ek naya signal aane ka imkaan hai, jo strong support level 0.6857 ki taraf girawat ka ishara kar raha hai. Lekin yeh bhi mumkin hai ke pair neeche jaane se pehle upar ki taraf move kare. Phir bhi, bearish movement abhi tak primary outlook hai. Humein intezar karna padega ke forecast kaam karta hai ya nahi. Agar sellers local support range ke neeche hold karte hain, toh hum ek strong one-way decline dekh sakte hain, jo pair ko sell karne ke estimates ko confirm karega. Agar bears aage barhne mein nakam hotay hain, toh buyers control le sakte hain. Ek false breakout ka imkaan bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Forecast ab bhi bearish movement par focused hai, khaaskar neural network ke clear signal ke madde nazar. Lekin plans badal bhi sakte hain, aur bulls price ko qareebi resistance level tak ya us se bhi upar push kar sakte hain.

tendency rakhta hai. Halaanki aik impulsive price hike hui hai, lekin yeh secondary response hai. Observation dikhata hai ke jab price ne 0.6660 ka low hit kiya, to price EMA 50 ke upar utha aur FR 50 (0.6712) par pause kiya. Ab jo price dobara gir raha hai, wo apni decline ko 0.6660 ke neeche barqarar rakhna chahiye. Jab tak AUD/USD pair ki price 0.6762 high ko cross nahi karti, upward correction phase khatam ho jaye ga aur price increase aik lower high pattern tak restricted rahe ga. Lekin kyunke histogram ne ab tak negative zone mai entry nahi ki ya level 0 ke neeche nahi gaya, jo ke downtrend momentum ko denote karta hai, isliye yeh upward correction phase ko support kar sakta hai. Asal mein, yeh prices ko jo abhi tak EMA 50 ke upar stuck hain, unhein upward correct karne mai madad de sakta hai. Yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke price correct hota rahe ga jab tak overbought market ke saturation point ko achieve nahi karta. Agar parameter level 50 tak pohanchta hai, to price ko higher correct karna expect kiya ja sakta hai.Position ka entry point FR 61.8 aur 0.6722 ke darmiyan hai, jo SMA 200 ke sath converge kar raha hai. Confirmation tab hoti hai jab Stochastic indicator parameter overbought zone mai move karne ke baad levels 90 aur 80 par cross karta hai, jo ke buying saturation point ko denote karta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram kam az kam level 0 ke qareeb positive area mai hai, jo upward momentum ke slowing down ko indicate karta hai.A-B-C patterns aik 5-3-5 wave sequence hain jo zigzag patterns kehlate hain. 10/17/2024 ko hum ne Elliottwave-Forecast members ke sath yeh chart share kiya tha, jo shorter cycles mai price ka rasta dikhata hai. Chart dikhata hai ke August low se bullish sequence ka aik bearish correction ho raha hai. Pehli reaction mai 5 waves ka drop aur wave (A) ki completion hui thi. Is structure ke sath hum predict kar sakte hain ke aik A-B-C zigzag pattern involve ho raha hai jo 5-3-5 wave sequence hai. Ab price wave (B) mai hai agar yeh kam az kam 23.6% retracement zone (0.6725) tak extend hota hai. Agar current bounce 0.6725 ke neeche end hota

instrument khareedne ke liye bohat high ho chuka hai. Jaise jaise waqt guzarta hai aur device ka consensus warning deta hai, yeh zahir hota hai ke bulls ab zyada active ho gaye hain, aur ab buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh

ka consensus warning deta hai, yeh zahir hota hai ke bulls ab zyada active ho gaye hain, aur ab buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zone tak

AUD/USD ke price channel ko dekh kar lagta hai ke yeh ek standard pattern hai, lekin ek twist bhi ho sakta hai. Ho sakta hai ke market ke “puppeteers” ne jaan bujh kar aisa price channel banaya ho taake hum isey follow karen aur yeh samjhein ke price neeche jaane wali hai, jabke asal mein yeh ek trap ho market participants ko sell positions mein daalnay ke liye. Agar aisa hai, toh price neeche jaane ke bajaye upar ki taraf chal sakti hai, majority ke against. Agar market open hone ke baad price 0.6756 tak upar jaati hai, phir wahan se neeche aati hai lekin 0.6730 ka level price ko neeche nahi jaane de raha, toh is point se price wapas upar ja sakti hai 0.6927 tak. Yeh level test ho sakta hai, aur agar wahan se bearish signal milta hai jo volume se confirm ho, toh price wahan se tez girawat ke saath neeche aa sakti hai. Is dauran, stochastic indicator bhi price ke barhnay ko support kar raha hai. Parameters jo level 50 cross kar rahe hain, wo overbought zone 80-90 tak jaane ki potential dikha rahe hain, jo price ke barhnay ke liye kafi room ka ishara hai. Trading plan mein abhi sale position ke liye wait karna zaroori hai kyunke moving averages abhi tak golden cross ka signal nahi de rahe. Entry placement SBR 0.6714 ya SMA 200 ke aas paas sahi ho sakti hai. Confirmation ke liye stochastic ko oversold zone 10-20 level pe wapas aane ka intezaar karna behtareen hoga. Take profit ka target 0.6664 pe set karein aur resistance 0.6760 pe stop loss rakhein.

AUD/USD ka H-4 time frame ka tajziya karte hain. Aaj raat koi khaas iqtisadi data release nahi hoga, aur aaj trading ka akhri din hai, is liye USD ke bullish hone ka potential hai, jo pichle trend ko continue kar sakta hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke AUD/USD ne kal se EMA50 ki taraf chadhna shuru kiya hai, aur is izafa ko hum ek corrective movement ke tor par samajhte hain. Is liye, hum is market situation ka faida uthane ke liye re-entry sell position khol sakte hain.

Agar aap teen moving average indicators EMA50, EMA100, aur EMA200 ko dekhein, toh inka arrangement bearish hai. EMA200 sabse upar hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke seller pressure apne climax phase tak pohanch chuka hai. Hum yeh maante hain ke yeh correction EMA50 Blue ke niche 0.6730 par ruk jayegi.

Magar humein yeh bhi dekhna hoga ke agar price EMA200 Red H4 tak 0.6760 tak barhti hai, toh is assumption ke sahi hone par, yeh area sell option ke liye zyada faida mand hoga kyunki yeh izafa sirf corrective hai. Jo girawat aayegi woh purane lower area 0.6662 tak pahunchne ki umeed hai, jo EMA200 Daily ka dynamic support hai. Lekin agar seller pressure consistent raha, toh yeh girawat 0.6624 tak ja sakti hai, jahan prospective buyers nayi buy position kholne mein dilchaspi le sakte hain, jaise pehle ki pattern mein dekha gaya tha.

Agar buyers 0.6624 par jaldi react nahi karte, toh iska matlab yeh hai ke long-term downtrend shuru ho sakta hai, kyunki us waqt price EMA200 daily ke dynamic support ke neeche hoga. Is surat mein, instant sell action lena behtar hoga, aur limit sell option ko 0.6730 ke yellow resistances aur 0.6760 ke blue resistance ke aas-paas rakha ja sakta hai.




Agle Monday ke liye economic calendar dekhne par yeh bhi pata chalta hai ke koi badi khabar nahi hai, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke market sideways chal sakta hai, lekin bearish tendency ke saath. Is liye, humein apne positions ko mazbooti se pakad kar rakhna hoga jab tak target achieve na ho. Dollar Index ki current condition bhi H4 basis par re-entry buy setup ki taraf ja rahi hai, agar USDX upar ki taraf trigger hota hai, toh AUD/USD pair par is ka asar manfi hoga.

AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

AUD/USD H4 time frame par dekhne par, is waqt AUD/USD 0.6728 par trading kar raha hai. Yeh pair abhi noticeable kamzori ka shikar hai, aur technical taur par yeh downward momentum barqarar rehne ki sambhavna dikhata hai. Iska matlab hai ke bechne walay abhi market par control rakhte hain, aur niche ke pressure ki aage badhne ki zyada sambhavna hai. Jab hum recent price action ka jaiza lete hain, toh humein pata chalta hai ke yeh pair lagatar gir raha hai, jo ke Australian dollar ki US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzori ko darshata hai. Yeh trend kuch factors ki wajah se ho raha hai, jaise ke Australia se aane wale kamzor economic data ya phir US dollar ka mazboot hona, jo ke behtar economic conditions ya US mein interest rates ke barhne ki umeedon ki wajah se hai. Yeh fundamental drivers, saath hi market ke technical structure, AUD/USD ke liye bearish sentiment ko barhawa de rahe hain.

H4 chart par, yeh pair lower highs aur lower lows bana raha hai, jo ke classic downtrend ka indication hai. Bechne walay key support levels ko todne mein kamiyab rahe hain, jo ke bearish outlook ko aur mazboot kar raha hai. Market abhi bechne walon ki taraf jhuki hui nazar aati hai, jahan kisi bhi short-term rally ko jaldi bech diya ja raha hai.



Is waqt, traders aur analysts critical support areas par nazar rakh rahe hain, kyun ke in levels ke niche girne par bearish momentum mein tezhi aa sakti hai. Agla immediate support zone 0.6700 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo ek psychological level hai aur yeh kharidne walon ko attract kar sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh level nahi tikta, toh humein aage aur girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jiska agla major support 0.6650 ke aas-paas hoga. Dusri taraf, agar kharidne wale is waqt ki levels ko bachane mein kamiyab rahe, toh humein kuch consolidation ya minor retracement dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, is time frame par overall trend yeh darshata hai ke rallies shayad jald hi khatam ho jayengi aur mazboot resistance ka saamna karengi.

Upar ki taraf pehli significant resistance 0.6760 ke level par hai, uske baad 0.6800 hai. H4 time frame par AUD/USD pair khud ko continued weakness dikhata hua nazar aa raha hai. Bechne walay control mein hain, aur jab tak koi strong catalyst market sentiment ko badalta nahi, yeh pair pressure mein rehne ki sambhavna rakhta hai. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhni chahiye taake wo potential entry aur exit points ka andaza laga saken.

AUD/USD Price Action ka tajziya abhi chal raha hai. Yeh currency pair pichlay hafte se sideways movement dikha raha hai aur dheere dheere support line 0.6700 ka test kar raha hai. Is waqt price 0.6705 par hai, jo is level ke kareeb hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi pair ko bearish direction mein jane se rok raha hai. MACD steady decline show kar raha hai, aur Bollinger Bands narrow ho gaye hain, jo ke ek qareebi breakout aur uske baad ke girawat ki nishani hai. Is girawat ke potential stop points 0.6681, 0.6651, aur 0.6630 hain, jahan par humein market reaction ko dekhna hoga.
Price din ke dauran barh kar resistance level 0.67622 tak pohanchi, lekin us ne higher levels ka test nahi kiya. Main growth ki umeed 0.67916 tak kar raha tha, lekin yeh prediction sahi nahi hui aur girawat aa gayi. Us ke baad price 0.67215 ke support tak pohoch gayi. Monday ko support ke honay ki wajah se, mujhe Tuesday ko 0.67622 resistance ki taraf growth ki umeed thi. Afsoos ke saath, meri forecast ghalat thi, kyun ke candle bearish activity dikha rahi thi aur apni lows ke qareeb trade kar rahi thi. Agar price support 0.66834 ke kareeb close hoti hai, toh main potential decline ki taraf dekhunga, jo ke 0.66485 tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar price 0.6740 ke upar rehti hai, toh humein upward momentum ka dobarah ana dekhne ko mil sakta hai.
Hum oversold range ke qareeb hain, jo ke false breakdown ke chances ko barha sakta hai. Agar hum apni position maintain nahi karte, toh girawat kaafi mumkin hai. Agar 0.6700 range se ek correction hota hai, toh growth ki umeed barh jaayegi. Ek breakout agar 0.6740 ke upar hota hai, toh yeh ek upward trend ke continuation ka signal hoga, jo ke buying ke liye ek acha point ho sakta hai. Reserve Bank of Australia ki taraf se Tuesday ko jari ki gayi report ke mutabiq, central bank interest rate policy ke hawalay se sabhi options ko madde nazar rakh raha hai. RBA ka sabse bara challenge yeh hai ke girti hui inflation aur mazboot labor market ke darmiyan moazna kaise kiya jaye. Girti hui inflation rate cuts ka signal deti hai, lekin mazboot labor market is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke rate cuts zaroori nahi hain.

اکتوبر 21 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

آج صبح، آسٹریلوی ڈالر کی شرح مبادلہ 0.6727 کی مزاحمتی سطح تک پہنچ گئی، جو کہ 23.6% فبونیکی ریٹیسمنٹ کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔



مزاحمت مضبوط ثابت ہو رہی ہے، اور اسے توڑنا 38.2% ریٹریسمنٹ لیول کے قریب ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن 0.6777 پر پہنچنے کی کوشش کرے گا۔ اس سطح کو عبور کرنے سے 0.6827 کے ہدف کا راستہ کھل جاتا ہے۔ اس مقام پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر ترقی کے علاقے کی حدود کا سامنا کرے گا، جس سے قیمت کے اہم چیلنجز پیدا ہوں گے۔

ایچ -٤ چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی حمایت کے ساتھ، جو مثبت علاقے میں بڑھ رہا ہے، قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے اوپر چلی گئی ہے اور 0.6727 پر مزاحمتی سطح کو توڑنے کی کوشش کر رہی ہے۔ اس سطح کے اوپر استحکام کئی ہدف مزاحمتوں پر قیمت کے حملوں کو متحرک کر سکتا ہے۔



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