ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD Price Action

Hamari guftagu is waqt AUD/USD currency pair ke pricing ke current behavior ka jaiza le rahi hai. AUD/USD pair ek wazeh downtrend dikhata hai, jo ke 0.6944 ke support level se shuru hua. Maine bechne ke liye kuch signals shanakht kiye hain, jo main istemal karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Filhal, envelopes aur alligator lines dono neeche ki taraf point kar rahe hain, jo bearish outlook ko confirm karte hain. Ummeed hai ke price girawat 0.6624 ke platform level se guzregi. Yahan par buyers se lagaye gaye stop-loss orders se khaas liquidity maujood hai, jo long positions mein aaye hain aur apne risks ko manage kar rahe hain. Ye ghalat signals is wajah se hain ke price aksar ek range mein move kar raha hai. Pichla break 0.67249 ke support ka Tuesday ko hua, jisme ek confirmed breakout ke baad rebound dekha gaya. Agla sales target ab 0.66607 ke support level par hai.

Hourly chart par, price ek descending channel mein trend kar raha hai. Halankeh pair gir raha hai, lekin ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohancha. Yeh neeche ki taraf chalna jaari rakhni chahiye jab tak yeh lower boundary par nahi aata, jo ke lagbhag 0.6688 level par hai. Is point tak pahunchne ke baad, ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko channel ki upper boundary ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo shayad 0.6721 ke aas-paas ho. Total paanch signals the—teen ghalat the, jabke do sahi the. In mein se ek signal Tuesday ko kaam kiya, lekin Wednesday ko ek ghalat signal aaya, jiske baad Thursday ko teen aur signals aaye, jisme se do bhi ghalat the. Friday ko ek signal kaam kiya, aur Monday girawat ke sath shuru hua, jo 0.67249 ke support level ko todne ki taraf le gaya. Is dauran ek ghalat sell signal aur ek ghalat buy signal dekhe gaye. Tuesday ko phir se ek ghalat buy signal aaya.

Is haftay ke doran Australian dollar ki qeemat ghir gayi, jo ke Reserve Bank of New Zealand ke rate cut ke asar mein aaya. Ye faisla New Zealand dollar ko bhi neeche le aaya. Jabke Australian aur New Zealand ki currencies aksar milke chalti hain, is rishte ki taraqqi ko dekhna zaroori hai. Halankeh overall decline ke bawajood, market ne kuch resilience dikhai hai, aur Australian dollar ne thoda sa bounce kiya hai. Jabke weekly candlestick negative hai, ye koi khatarnaak halat nahi lagta. Traders aisa lagta hai ke market mein kuch jaan daalna chahte hain, kam az kam abhi ke liye.

Agar Australian dollar 0.6850 ki level ko tor leta hai, to ye 0.6950 ki taraf potential move ke liye raah khol sakta hai, jo ke pichle hafton mein ek resistance point bana raha hai. Agar currency is line ko torne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to humein upar ki taraf aur pressure dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar ye 0.6650 se neeche girta hai, to ye mazeed declines ka sabab ban sakta hai, jo Australian dollar ko 0.6450 ki level tak le ja sakta hai.

Jaise ke hamesha hota hai, commodity prices Australian dollar par bohot asar daalti hain. Copper, gold, aur iron jaise commodities ki qeematein barh rahi hain, aur ye Aussie growth par mazeed pressure dal sakti hain, chahe local factors jaise interest rates kuch bhi hon. Agar ye commodity markets barhte rahe, to Australian dollar bhi in external factors ke asar mein upar ki taraf ja sakta hai, local economic conditions se alag.

Aakhir mein, Australian dollar ka rukh is baat par depend karega ke broader commodity markets kaisay perform karte hain, sath hi closely related currencies jaise New Zealand Dollar ke potential moves par bhi. Traders ko key levels par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye samajh sakein ke currency mazeed recovery ke liye tayar hai ya phir kisi decline ka samna karne wali hai. Is waqt market ki halat aur commodity prices ka jaiza lena bohot zaroori hai, taake behtar trading decisions liye ja sakein

AUD/USD Price Action

Hamari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ki pricing ke current behaviour ka tajziya karti hai. AUD/USD pair ek wazeh downtrend dikhata hai, jo ke 0.6944 ke support level se shuru hua. Maine bechne ke liye kuch signals shanakht kiye hain, jinhein main istemal karne ka irada rakhta hoon. Filhal, envelopes aur alligator lines dono neeche ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, jo bearish outlook ko confirm karta hai. Umeed hai ke price ka ghatna 0.6624 ke platform level se guzregi. Yahan buyers ke stop-loss orders se significant liquidity hai, jo long positions mein aaye hain aur apne risks ko manage kar rahe hain. Yeh jhooti signals is wajah se hain ke price aksar ek range mein chal raha hai.

Aakhri dafa 0.67249 support ka break Tuesday ko hua, jiske baad ek confirmed breakout ne rebound ki taraf le jaya. Ab agla sales target 0.66607 ke support level par hai.

AUD/USD Price Action

Hourly chart par, price ek descending channel ke andar trend kar rahi hai. Halankeh pair gir raha hai, lekin ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pahuncha. Yeh downward trend tab tak jaari rehna chahiye jab tak yeh lower boundary, jo ke 0.6688 ke aas-paas hai, tak nahi pahunche. Is point par, ek reversal ho sakta hai, jo price ko channel ki upper boundary ki taraf push karega, jo shayad 0.6721 ke aas-paas ho.

Kul mila kar paanch signals mile—unmein se teen jhooti thi, jabke do sahi thi. In signals mein se ek Tuesday ko kaam kiya, lekin Wednesday ne ek jhooti signal di, jiske baad Thursday ko teen aur signals aayi, jinmein se do bhi jhooti thi. Friday ko ek signal kaam kiya, aur Monday ne decline ke sath shuruat ki, jo 0.67249 support level ka break kar gaya. Is dauran ek jhooti sell signal aur ek jhooti buy signal bhi aaye. Tuesday ko phir se ek jhooti buy signal dekhne ko mili.

AUD/USD Price Action

Hamari guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke pricing ke haal ka tajziya karti hai. AUD/USD joora ek saaf downtrend dikhata hai, jo 0.6944 ke support level se shuru hua. Maine bechne ke liye kuch signals identify kiye hain, jinhein mein istemal karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Filhal, envelopes aur alligator lines dono neechay ki taraf point kar rahi hain, jo bearish outlook ko confirm karti hain. Umeed hai ke qeemat ka girna 0.6624 ke platform level se guzar kar hoga. Yahaan par buyers ke stop-loss orders se kafi liquidity hai jo long positions mein aaye hain aur apne risks ko manage kar rahe hain. Yeh jhooti signals is wajah se hain ke qeemat aksar ek range mein move kar rahi hai. 0.67249 support ka aakhri break Tuesday ko hua, jismein ek confirmed breakout ne rebound ki taraf lead kiya. Agla sales target ab 0.66607 ke support level par hai.

Hourly chart par, qeemat ek descending channel ke andar trend kar rahi hai. Halankeh joora gir raha hai, lekin ab tak yeh lower boundary tak nahi pahunch paya. Yeh neeche ki taraf jaari rehna chahiye jab tak yeh lower boundary, jo ke 0.6688 ke aas-paas hai, tak nahi pohanchta. Is point tak pohanchne ke baad, ek reversal ho sakta hai jo qeemat ko channel ke upper boundary ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo shayad 0.6721 ke aas-paas ho.

Kul milakar paanch signals the—jin mein se teen jhoote the, jabke do sahi the. In signals mein se ek Tuesday ko kaam kiya, lekin Wednesday ko ek jhoota signal mila, uske baad Thursday ko teen aur signals aaye, jin mein se do bhi jhoote the. Friday ko ek signal kaam kiya, aur Monday ne girawat ke sath shuruat ki, jo 0.67249 ke support level ka break ban gaya. Is dauran ek jhoota sell signal aur ek jhoota buy signal nazar aaya. Tuesday ko phir se ek jhoota buy signal dekha gaya.

Collapse Mazher5
Senior Membe
# China ki Inflation Data aur AUD/USD par Asar

## Inflation Data aur Deflationary Spiral ka Khatar

September ke liye China ka naye inflation data ne deflationary spiral ka khatar barh diya hai. Yeh nayi data is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke agar halat na sudhri toh deflation ka silsila shuru ho sakta hai. Chinese policymakers ne nayi fiscal stimulus policies ke liye rhetoric ka istemal jaari rakha, lekin in policies ki tatbeeri ya implementation ke liye koi wazeh tafsilat nahi di gayi.

## Policy-Making Process par Aitbaar ka Girna

Agar China ke policy-making process par aitbaar girta hai, toh is ka negative asar AUD/USD par dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Is report ka yeh hissa pichli report "AUD/USD: Aussie's Recent Recovery May Face Ceiling Below 0.6900" ka follow-up hai, jo 2 September 2024 ko publish hui thi. Is report mein humne dekha tha ke AUD/USD ne 11 September ko 0.6622 par aik low banaya, jo ke 200-day moving average support 0.6600 ke qareeb tha. Iske baad yeh price 0.6900 ke key intermediate-term resistance tak pohanchi, lekin phir se gir gaya, aur 30 September ko intraday high 0.6943 par pahuncha.

## AUD/USD ki Recent Movement

Pichle do hafton mein, AUD/USD ne -3.3% ki kami dekhi aur 10 October ko 0.6701 ka aik low banaya. Iski nayi kamzori ka taluq indirectly Chinese economy ki halat se hai, jo industrial commodities jese ke iron ore ki demand mein kami ki wajah se hui hai. Iron ore Australia ka key export hai jo China ko bheja jata hai, aur iski demand ka girna Australian economy par asar daal raha hai.

## China ki Fiscal Stimulus ki Baatain

Abhi tak China se nayi fiscal stimulus ka koi wazeh aur concrete amount nahi aaya. 26 September ko, Politburo, jo ke China ka top decision-making body hai, ne ek "strongly worded" message diya tha jo ke property market ki mushkilat ko kam karne ke liye mazeed stimulus measures ka waada karta tha. Isne market participants ko umeed di ke Golden Week public holiday ke baad do se teen trillion yuan ke naye fiscal stimulus measures announce kiye jayenge.

Lekin 8 October ko National Development and Reforms ki press briefing aur 12 October ko Treasury ki briefing mein koi khaas ummeed nahi mili. Yeh briefing detail aur scope mein kafi tepid thi aur kisi specific amount ke naye fiscal stimulus ka elan nahi kiya gaya. Iske bajaye, in briefings ne rhetorical messages ka istemal kiya jo forward guidance ke liye the.

## Market ki Reactions

Market ki taraf se yeh umeed thi ke stimulus measures se property market ko faida hoga aur is se overall economy ko behtar banane mein madad milegi. Lekin jab specific amounts aur implementation details nahi di gayi, toh market participants ne is par shak kiya. Is shak ki wajah se AUD/USD par bhi asar aaya, jo ke already weak situation mein tha.

## Aane Wali Challenges

Chinese economy ki halat, jismein property market ka girna aur demand ki kami shamil hai, ne investor confidence ko kam kar diya hai. Is se AUD/USD par pressure barh gaya hai. Agar China apne fiscal policies ko jaldi implement nahi karta, toh yeh situation aur bhi kharab ho sakti hai, aur iska asar directly Australian economy par hoga.

## Conclusion

In sab halaton ko dekhte hue, AUD/USD ki movement kaafi uncertain lagti hai. Inflation data ke khilaf economic policies ko tayyar karna zaroori hai, warna deflationary spiral ki taraf ja sakte hain. Chinese policymakers ko ab zaroori hai ke woh apni fiscal stimulus ki details foran share karein taake market ki uncertainty ko kam kiya ja sake. Is se investor confidence barh sakta hai aur AUD/USD ko support mil sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh situation jaisi hai waisi rahi, toh 0.6900 ka resistance level kayam rahega, aur AUD/USD ko niche ki taraf jaane ka

AUD/USD mein haal hi mein notable decline dekha gaya hai, lekin raat se kuch recovery bhi hui hai. Halaanki yeh recovery mukammal nahi hui, magar upward momentum ke wazeh asraat nazar aa rahe hain, jo mazeed gains ka ishara de rahe hain. Ek bara challenge yeh hai ke price abhi bhi moving average (MA) ke neeche hai, jo resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Bulls ke liye zaroori hai ke woh price ko kal ke lows tak wapas girne se rokhen, kyun ke yeh levels bohot ahmiyat rakhte hain, khaaskar jab ke crucial support points ka formation ho raha hai. Filhaal, price in lows ke kaafi upar barqarar hai, aur agar yeh position shaam ke session tak barqarar rehti hai, to upward trend ka silsila jari rehne ki umeed hai.
Pichle hafte ke akhir mein pehle se aik decline ka attempt hua tha, jo sirf 0.6900 ke horizontal support level tak pohanch saka. Yeh level bhi aik integer hai, jo iski ahmiyat ko aur barhata hai. Signals ko sell karne ki confirmation tab hogi jab price confidently 0.6900 ke neeche fix ho jaye. Sabse behtareen selling point yeh level tha jab usay neeche se resistance ke tor par test kiya gaya; abhi tak price zyada door nahi gayi, is liye abhi bhi sell karne ka waqt hai. Aur mere khayal mein, market mein kareebi future mein US dollar mazid strong hoga.
Is baat ka ishara doosri pairs, allies aur opponents ke hawalay se milta hai, aur dollar index par bhi daily chart mein MACD indicator par bullish divergence hai. Yeh wazeh hai ke kal ke chaar ghanton ke candlestick, jis par level test kiya gaya tha, neeche ki taraf gir gayi aur aik hammer ya pin bar banaya, jo ke decline ki nishani hai. Tab se mein decline ka intezar kar raha tha, lekin yeh waqayi mein ab tak nahi hua tha, magar raat mein dabao dalna shuru kiya gaya aur price kaafi achi tarah se neeche aayi.
Mera khayal hai ke kareebi future mein price par mazeed dabao dalein ge, aur target level 0.6815 aur ascending daily line ho sakta hai. Padosi pair NZD/USD pehle hi achi tarah se gir chuka hai, lekin yeh pair thoda peeche hai. Mera khayal hai ke yeh sirf aik temporary delay hai, aur jaldi yeh pair catch up kar le ga. Aik aur factor jo decline ko support karta hai, woh daily chart par CCI indicator ka upper overheating zone se neeche aana hai, aur is par bhi bearish divergence mojood hai.
Tuesday ko Australian dollar 0.6660 ke around trade ho raha tha. Australian aur US daily charts ek ascending triangle pattern dikhate hain. Furthermore, 14-day RSI bullish sentiment dikhata hai aur 50 mark ke upar hai.

AUD/USD secondary scenario ko follow kar rahi hai, jo ke 0.6838 se upar jaa chuki hai aur 0.6872 tak continue kar rahi hai. Market ab aglay buying target 0.6893 ke qareeb hai, aur resistance zone 0.6893 aur 0.6901 ke darmiyan test hona expected hai, jiska imkaan hai ke neeche ki taraf rebound ho. Australian dollar ne daily chart par barhna jaari rakha hai, analyst ke pehlay forecast ke bawajood. Price ne recent resistance aur support levels ko test kiya hai, jis ke baad analyst range trading ko behtar samajhta hai. Magar price ne Monday ko is range ko upar break kiya, aur resistance 0.6824 ko paar kar liya. Jab din ka close is level ke upar hua, to focus ab aaj ke resistance 0.6887 ki taraf growth par hai. Jab price is resistance ke qareeb hai, agar close is level ke ird gird hota hai, to focus phir se resistance 0.6949 ki taraf growth par ho jaye ga. AUD/USD chart yeh suggest karta hai ke price movements market ki typical manipulations ke mutabiq hain, jo ke institutional traders kartay hain. Yeh pattern volume ke zariye naye trading positions establish karne aur phir liquidity withdraw karne ka hota hai. Analyst is pattern se waqif hai, aur aise moments ko pehle bhi observe kiya hai. Jo ke ab upward movement ke sath persistent bullish trend dekh raha hai, analyst yeh anticipate karta hai ke aik moment aayega jab price ka rise liquidity ko top se clear out kar dega. Jab volume indicators confirm karen ke AUD/USD liquidity likely oopar se nikal chuki hai, to phir aik decline dekhne ko mil sakta hai 0.6658 ke aas paas accumulated liquidity ke level tak. AUD/USD pair signs of growth dekh rahi hai aur 0.6891 ka level test karne ki umeed hai. Envelopes indicator ke mutabiq, wahan resistance 0.6896 par hai, jo ke main idea ko nahi badalta. Magar yeh resistance 0.6896 likely strong rehne wala hai, jo ke pair ko 0.6830 ke support level tak retreat karne ka sabab ban sakta hai.
AUD/USD mein ek tezi se upward movement aa sakti hai. Misal ke taur par, agar US Federal Reserve se dovish signals milte hain ya Australia ki economic data expectations se zyada strong hoti hai, to yeh pair ko ooper push kar sakta hai, jisse key resistance levels 0.6950 ya 0.7000 tak challenge ho sakte hain. Is waqt AUD/USD pair 0.6907 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai aur overall trend bearish momentum dikha raha hai. Market dheere dheere neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo ke is baat ki nishani hai ke Australian dollar US dollar ke muqable mein kamzor ho raha hai. Is slow movement ke bawajood, kuch aise potential signals hain jo yeh dikhate hain ke aane wale dinon mein ek significant shift aa sakta hai, aur yeh pair ek bara movement dekh sakti hai.

AUD/USD ka pair is waqt ek moderate decline ka samna kar raha hai, jo ke pichlay kuch sessions mein lagbhag 2% ki rally ke baad apni pehle ki gains ko retrace kar raha hai. Yeh harkat Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke darmiyan monetary policy ki ongoing divergence ko dikhati hai. Jabke Fed interest rate adjustments ke liye zyada cautious stance apna raha hai, RBA ki steady approach Australian Dollar (Aussie) ko mazid taqat de rahi hai, jis se yeh US Dollar (Greenback) se aage hai. Filhal, AUD/USD 0.6666 ke level par trade kar raha hai.

RBA ke recent meeting minutes ne yeh bataya ke board ne is mahine ke shuru mein rate hike par ghoor kiya, lekin aakhirkar current rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya. Yeh faisla board ke is yaqeen ko dikhata hai ke rates ko steady rakhna associated risks ke beech behtar balance banata hai, aur members ne is par ittefaq kiya ke near term mein rate cut hone ki sambhavna nahi hai. Yeh stance Australian Dollar ki taqat ko barqarar rakhti hai, khaaskar jab US Dollar par zyada pressure hai, kyunke Fed ki dovish expectations hain.

AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

Federal Reserve ki Governor Michelle Bowman ne haali mein monetary policy mein kisi bhi tabdeeli par caution izhar kiya hai, inflation ke persistent risks ko samjhte hue. Reuters ke mutabiq, Bowman ne warn kiya ke individual economic data points par overreact karna Fed ke inflation control karne ki progress ko khatar mein daal sakta hai. Yeh cautious approach Fed ki RBA ki zyada stable stance ke saath contrasting hai, jo AUD/USD exchange rate mein ek unique dynamic bana rahi hai.

Ek aur baat, China apne struggling real estate market ko sambhalne ke liye naye strategies par ghoor kar raha hai. Government local authorities ko unsold properties kharidne ke liye special bonds use karne ki ijaazat dene par ghoor kar raha hai, jaise ke Bloomberg ne report kiya. Local governments ne is saal ke CNY 3.9 trillion ($546 billion) bond allocation ka aadha se zyada istemal kar liya hai. Jabke yeh dekhna mushkil hai ke kitna remaining funds ghar kharidne ke liye redirect kiya jayega, yeh move Australian economy par broader implications daal sakta hai, given ke yeh China ke sath trade ties rakhta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Yeh pair apne chhe hafte ke low 0.6621 ko test karne ki sambhavna rakhta hai, jo ke 11 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar yeh support ke neeche chala jata hai, toh yeh apne descending channel ki lower boundary ko 0.6580 ke qareeb test kar sakta hai. Is se pehle, yeh pehle apne ascending channel ki lower boundary ko 0.6600 ke aas paas test kar sakta hai, aur zyada support 0.6586 ke aas paas expect kiya ja sakta hai.

Pair filhal 0.6666 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke ek bullish trend dikhata hai jab yeh daily chart par ascending channel ke andar consolidate kar raha hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 ke thoda neeche hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bullish momentum ab bhi mazboot hai.

### AUD/USD 1-Hour Chart Ka Tajziya

AUD/USD ka 1-hour chart ek wazeh downtrend dikhata hai, jahan yeh joڑی ab 0.66708 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai, aur yeh lagatar lower highs aur lower lows bana rahi hai, jo ke October ke shuruat se hai. Price ko kisi bhi aham upward momentum ko dhoondhne mein mushkilat ka samna hai, aur upar ki taraf break karne ki koshishain baar baar mukhalif liquidity levels (DLiq) par fail hoti rahi hain. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) aur liquidity zones ka ek silsila market ki is tendency ko darshata hai ke yeh liquidity ko grab karne se pehle bearish movement ko jaari rakhta hai. Bechne walon ka market par pakka control dikhata hai, kyunki kai aise areas hain jahan liquidity ko liya gaya hai, khaaskar sell-side par.

Aakhri price action yeh dikhata hai ke AUD/USD ne 0.67000 level ko test karne ke baad niche ki taraf chalna shuru kiya, jahan usne aham resistance ka samna kiya. Is level ko cross karne mein nakami yeh darshata hai ke bechne wale ab bhi dominant hain, jo price ko 0.66700 ke aas-paas ek key support zone ki taraf le ja rahe hain. Yeh support level ahmiyat rakhta hai, kyunki isne pehle kharidaaron ko kuch der ke liye raahat faraham ki hai.

Lekin, overall bearish structure yeh darshata hai ke agar yeh support level toot gaya, toh niche ki taraf chalne ki sambhavana hai. Pichle hafte, market ne ek wazeh bearish momentum dikhaya hai, jahan multiple liquidity grabs ke zariye lower lows banaye gaye hain. 0.67500 ka region pehle ke rally ke koshishon mein ek mazboot resistance zone bana raha hai, lekin har rejection ke sath, yeh joڑی niche ki taraf girne ke kareeb aati ja rahi hai. Chart par key liquidity zones, jo ke 0.67500, 0.67000, aur 0.66700 ke aas-paas hain, price direction ke liye pivotal hain.

Agar yeh joڑی 0.66700 se neeche convincingly break kar jati hai, toh yeh ek sell-off ko trigger kar sakti hai, jo ke 0.66000 ke aas-paas lower liquidity areas ko target karega. Upar ki taraf, kisi bhi meaningful recovery ke liye pehle kai resistance levels ko todna zaroori hoga, jo ke 0.67000 se shuru hota hai, aur phir 0.67500 ke aas-paas ek zyada substantial barrier aata hai. Lekin, agar koi significant bullish pressure nahi aata, toh overall downtrend barqarar rehne ki sambhavana hai, jab bechne wale narrative par control rakhte hain. Filhal, AUD/USD bearish territory mein hai, aur niche ki taraf aur movement ki sambhavana hai.

Good morning Invest Social Forum doston! Umeed hai sab theek honge aur yahaan site pe qeemti maloomat haasil kar rahe honge. Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ka H4 time frame pe jaiza lete hain. Haal hi mein AUD/USD market ke bulls ne mazahmat dikhai, aur pair ko aham 0.6713 level ke upar le gaye. Ye upar ki taraf harkat strong buying interest ka izhar karti hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke qayam rehne ka ishara deti hai. Doosri taraf, sellers yani bears, pressure mein hain aur control hasil karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahe hain. Ye dynamic short-term buying opportunities ke liye ek achi surat-e-haal paish kar raha hai, lekin ehtiyaat ke saath optimism bhi maujood hai. AUD/USD ke bullish sentiment ke peeche kuch wajahen hain. Pehle, Australia se aane wale taaza economic data, jaise employment figures aur GDP growth, kaafi acha raha, jis ne Australian Dollar ko support kiya. Is ke ilawa, market sentiment risk assets ki taraf, jin mein commodities aur emerging market currencies shamil hain, behter hua hai, jo AUD ke liye faidamand raha. In factors ne mil kar Australian Dollar ke strength mein izafa kiya hai against the US Dollar. Technical point se dekha jaye to, 0.6702 level ke upar break hona kaafi significant hai, kyun ke ye ek important resistance-turned-support zone hai. Traders aksar aise levels ko bullish trends ke tasdeeq ke liye dekhte hain aur long positions ke liye entry points samajhte hain. Jab tak price is level ke upar rehti hai, ye bullish bias ko reinforce karti hai in the short term. Lekin, jabke bullish momentum mazboot hai, kuch challenges bhi ho sakte hain. Bears jo ke filhal pressure mein hain, agar market sentiment mein koi tabdeeli hoti hai ya koi achanak economic developments hoti hain, to wo wapas control hasil karne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Is liye, traders ko hamesha hoshiyaar rehna chahiye aur key support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Traders dekh sakte hain ke AUD/USD ki mazid strength ka tasdeeq tab hoti hai jab price 0.6720 ke upar rehti hai. Agar price recent highs ko break kar leti hai, to ye mazid upside potential ka ishara de sakti hai, jo ke agla psychological level 0.6750 ya us se upar tak target kar sakti hai.
Is ke bar’aks, agar pair 0.6720 ke upar rehnay mein nakam hoti hai aur wapas girti hai, to traders pehle ke lows ya moving averages jaise support levels ko dekh sakte hain for potential buying opportunities. AUD/USD ka H4 time frame filhal bullish activity ko reflect kar raha hai, aur pair 0.6700 level se upar hai. Ye suggest karta hai ke buyers dominate kar rahe hain, jabke sellers pressure mein hain. Traders ko overall market sentiment aur technical indicators ka jaiza lena chahiye jab short-term buying opportunities ka andaza lagayein. Hamesha ki tarah, ye zaroori hai ke aap economic news aur global developments se baakhabar rahein jo ke currency pair ki direction pe asar daal sakte hain aane wale dinon mein.

**AUD/USD Price Action Analysis**
Pair ne Tuesday ki New York session mein 0.6710 ke intraday low se bechne ka pressure face kiya. Lekin is girawat ke bawajood, yeh umeed ki ja rahi hai ke price apne upar ki taraf movement continue karegi kyun ke US Dollar kamzor ho raha hai jab US Initial Jobless Claims report release hui. Ab investors interest rate cuts ki sambhavnaon par dhyan de rahe hain, jo October mein hone ki umeed hai, aur saath hi saal ke aakhir tak hone wale overall reductions par bhi.

**Reserve Bank of Australia ka Hawkish Outlook:**

Pair ke liye neeche ki taraf ka potential seemit nazar aa raha hai RBA ke hawkish stance ki wajah se. Central bank ne yeh darshaya hai ke agar inflationary pressures barqarar rahe to yeh interest rates ko aur badhane ke liye tayyar hai. RBA ka yeh proactive stance, saath hi China ke sarkar ki taraf se significant economic stimulus measures par barhti hui discussions, Aussie ko support dene ki umeed hai, khas taur par Australia aur China ke beech ke strong trade ties ki wajah se.

**US Federal Reserve ka Gradual Approach to Rate Cuts:**

Price ke liye downside RBA ke hawkish approach ki wajah se seemit nazar aa raha hai, kyunki central bank ne yeh signal diya hai ke agar inflation pressure continue hota hai to yeh interest rates ko aur barhane ke liye tayyar hai. Yeh assertive stance, China ke government se bade economic stimulus ki baatein bhi chalu hone ke sath, Dollar ko mazboot karne ki umeed hai, khas taur par Australia ke China ke sath kareeb trade rishton ki wajah se.

**AUD/USD ka Technical Analysis:**

Agar price 50-day EMA se neeche girti hai, to yeh pair ke bullish bias ko kamzor kar sakta hai, jo pair par neeche ki taraf pressure barha sakta hai. Aise mein, pair 0.6700 ke critical support level ko test kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to agla target 0.6670 par throwback support hoga, jo pair ke liye aur neeche ki taraf potential ko barha sakta hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) filhal 70 ke level se thoda neeche consolidate kar raha hai, jo bullish momentum ka ishaara hai. Lekin agar RSI 70 ke mark ko cross karta hai, to yeh indicate karega ke AUD/USD pair overbought territory mein ja raha hai. Yeh ek correction ko trigger kar sakta hai, kyun ke overbought conditions aksar market mein pullbacks se pehle hoti hain.

Is analysis se yeh samajh aata hai ke market ki halat aur potential movements ko samajhna kitna zaroori hai, taake behtar trading decisions liye ja sakein

اکتوبر 17 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

بدھ کو، آسٹریلوی ڈالر 36 پیپس کی طرف سے گر گیا. تاہم، آج کے پیسفک سیشن کے دوران، کافی اضافہ کل کی کمی کو پورا کرتا ہے۔ اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر جوڑے نے بظاہر 0.6640 پر ہدف کی حمایت کی سطح تک پہنچنے کے خیال کو ترک کر دیا ہے اور اس کے بجائے ہفتے کے آغاز سے خلا کو ختم کرنے کی طرف بڑھ گیا ہے۔



یومیہ چارٹ (0.6777) پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی مزاحمت تک ترقی جاری رہ سکتی ہے، جو کہ 38.2% ریٹریسمنٹ لیول کے بہت قریب ہے۔ ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ قیمت اس مزاحمت سے زوال کی نئی لہر کی طرف پلٹ جائے گی۔



٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت توازن لائن کی مزاحمت کے ساتھ جدوجہد کر رہی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر مثبت علاقے میں واپس آ گیا ہے۔ اس کی حمایت قیمت کے لیے بہت اہم ہے، کیونکہ اسے 0.6777 تک جانے کے لیے دو مزید مزاحمتوں کا سامنا کرنا پڑتا ہے — 0.6727 اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (0.6747) کی ہدف کی سطح پر۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Market abhi bhi sellers ke qabze mein hai, kyunki jaise ke aap chart ke left side par dekh sakte hain, price ne bohat gehri girawat dekhi hai. Aaj subah ka correction shayad sirf profit-taking ka natija tha. Jab sellers jo pehle hi kaafi faida le chuke hote hain, apni open positions ek hi waqt par band karte hain, to mother candles ki tadaad mein kaafi izafa hota hai.

Price 0.6710 par thoda barh kar 0.6750 tak pohcha, magar us ke baad kafi gehri girawat hui aur lowest value 0.6690 tak chali gayi. Yeh sab kuch American session ke band hone se chand ghante pehle 0.6810 par gir gaya jab price ne apni lowest value touch ki. Is lihaaz se, currency pair ne kal aik din mein 160 pips se zyada ka move kiya, jo pehle din ke range se kafi zyada hai.

AUD/USD currency pair abhi upward trend mein hai, halankeh interest rates change nahi hue. Yeh bullish move mazeed barh sakta hai, lekin agar bearish traders 0.6738 ka level tor detay hain, to price 0.6614 tak gir sakti hai. Chhoti time frames par ek halki divergence form ho rahi hai, jo aaj ke growth ko limit kar sakti hai. Is liye abhi khareedna munasib nahi hoga, kyunki price pehle hi kafi barh chuki hai.

Behtar hoga ke market ke progression ko dekh kar koi move kiya jaye. Filhaal Australian dollar spotlight mein nahi hai. AUD/USD pair ka agla direction zyada tar is baat par depend karega ke yeh aaj resistance levels par kaisay react karti hai. Agar price 0.6901 ke level ko cross kar jati hai, to 0.6896 ka resistance support ban sakta hai, jis se mazeed girawat ka imkaan kam ho jata hai.

Daily chart par, pair 0.6838 ke ooper move kar chuka hai aur 0.6872 ki taraf barh raha hai, jo secondary scenario ke mutabiq hai. Market ab aglay buying target 0.6893 ke qareeb hai, aur resistance zone jo ke 0.6893 aur 0.6901 ke darmiyan hai, test hone wala hai, jo ke downside ki taraf ek rebound trigger kar sakta hai.

Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein teen din ki girawat ka silsila tod diya hai, jab Thursday ko ek mazboot Australian jobs report aaya. Seasonally adjusted employment Australia mein September mein 64,100 se barh gaya, jisse total employment ka record high 14.52 million ho gaya. Ye 25,000 ke faida ki umeed se zyada hai aur pichle mahine ke revised figure 42,600 ko bhi paar kar gaya.

Saath hi, Australia ka seasonally adjusted unemployment rate September mein 4.1% par stable raha, jo revised August figure ke mutabiq hai lekin 4.2% ki umeed se kam hai. Bekar logon ki tadaad 92,000 kam hoke 615,700 tak aa gayi.

US dollar ko mazboot employment aur inflation data ne support diya, jisne Federal Reserve ki taraf se aggressive easing ki umeedon ko kam kar diya. Traders US retail sales data ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo North American session ke doran release hoga. Monthly consumer spending ka September mein 0.3% barhne ki umeed hai, jabke pichli reading 0.1% thi.

Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein teen din ki girawat ka silsila tod diya hai, jab Thursday ko ek mazboot Australian jobs report aaya. Seasonally adjusted employment Australia mein September mein 64,100 se barh gaya, jisse total employment ka record high 14.52 million ho gaya. Ye 25,000 ke faida ki umeed se zyada hai aur pichle mahine ke revised figure 42,600 ko bhi paar kar gaya.

Saath hi, Australia ka seasonally adjusted unemployment rate September mein 4.1% par stable raha, jo revised August figure ke mutabiq hai lekin 4.2% ki umeed se kam hai. Bekar logon ki tadaad 92,000 kam hoke 615,700 tak aa gayi.

US dollar ko mazboot employment aur inflation data ne support diya, jisne Federal Reserve ki taraf se aggressive easing ki umeedon ko kam kar diya. Traders US retail sales data ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo North American session ke doran release hoga. Monthly consumer spending ka September mein 0.3% barhne ki umeed hai, jabke pichli reading 0.1% thi.

**AUD/USD Price Move**

Yeh guftagu AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karti hai. AUD/USD trading instrument ka price gira hai, lekin yeh 0.6700 ke critical support level ke qareeb hai, jo break karne mein reluctant nazar aata hai. Agar price achanak 0.6755 ke accumulation zone ki taraf upar uthta hai aur phir current low ke neeche girta hai, toh agla haal dekhna bohot zaroori hoga.

Agar price naye low tak pahunche aur volume ke saath upar aaye, toh yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke neeche liquidity puri tarah se khatam ho chuki hai. Aisi surat mein, humein 0.6926 ki taraf sharp upward move dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jahan significant funds ka aana mumkin hai. Wave structure ek upward trend darshata hai, halanke RSI lower selling zone mein hai, lekin yeh signal line ke upar hai, jo upward correction ka ishara deta hai.

Pehle, maine decline ka prediction kiya tha jab price itni tezi se nahi gir rahi thi, jo bearish divergence MACD par aur reversal pattern—ek ascending wedge—ki wajah se hai, jo ab toot chuka hai.

**AUD/USD Price Analysis**

0.6906 ke level ke neeche ek mazboot consolidation ne sell signals ko confirm kiya, jahan optimal selling point wahi level bana jab yeh resistance ban gaya. Yeh sab kuch behtareen tarah se hua, khaaskar do haftay pehle US dollar ki doosri badi currencies ke khilaf taqat ki wajah se.

Pichhla hafte downward pressure jari raha, aur US dollar ne zyadatar major currencies ke khilaf taqat pakri. Halanke price daily chart par ek ascending support line tak pahuncha, MAD ne oversold zone se upar aane ki koshish karte hue thodi bullish divergence dikhayi. Lekin, yeh signal fail ho gaya, aur price ka neeche jana mumkin hai, jo upward trend mein break ka ishara hai.

Ab main umeed karta hoon ke price 0.6639 ki taraf giregi, halanke ek brief retracement broken line aur 0.6815 ki taraf hone ki sambhavna hai, uske baad further decline aayegi.