usd/jpy

USD/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast



Jumay ko USDJPY ki girawat jaari rahi. Aaj subah USDJPY trading 143.39 ke daam se shuru hui aur phir 142.69 tak gir gayi. Is girawat ne h1 support 143.01 ko niche ki taraf successfully penetrate kar diya.

Agar h1 timeframe se dekha jaye, to demand area 142.09 ke aas-paas sirf kuch pips ki kami hai. Agar candle is area ko cross kar leti hai, to USDJPY aur zyada gir sakta hai, lekin agar candle is area ko penetrate nahi karti, to wahan retracement hone ka mumkinah hai.

Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USDJPY ab bhi gir sakta hai kyunki bearish engulfing pattern ban raha hai aur candle abhi bhi Moving Average 12 aur Moving Average 16 areas mein move kar rahi hai. Aaj ke liye, main ye bhi predict karta hoon ke USDJPY gir sakta hai kyunki Ichimoku indicator ke analysis ke mutabiq, candle ka position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke sirf sell positions pe focus kiya jaye. Aap apni take profit target 141.78 ke aas-paas rakh sakte hain.

Mere technical analysis ke mutabiq, aaj USDJPY currency pair ka movement lagbhag 142.70 ke price tak girne ka hi lag raha hai. H1 timeframe mein USDJPY ne bearish candle engulfing banaya hai jo SELL USDJPY ke liye ek strong signal hai, aur RSI 14 indicator ke mutabiq, USDJPY ki current price 142.92 oversold nahi hui hai, isliye bahut mumkin hai ke aaj dopahar ko USDJPY 142.70 tak aur gir jaye.

SELL USDJPY ka signal MA indicator ke use se bhi support hota hai, kyunki MA 12 line aur MA 16 line abhi bhi USDJPY ki current price 142.92 ke upar hain, isliye aaj USDJPY ka girna 142.80 tak bhi ho sakta hai. Mere technical analysis ke results ke mutabiq, aaj maine decide kiya hai ke SELL USDJPY karun aur price 142.70 tak pohnchaye.

USD/JPY Analysis
D1 Period Chart

USDJPY currency pair ke hal ke haftay mein, bears ne bulls ko raste diya, aur price upar gayi, lekin bulls ne lambi growth ko rok diya. Yahan wave structure ab bhi niche ki taraf ban raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin apni signal line ke upar hai. Aisa lagta hai ke price current August ka minimum update karne wala hai, isse update karne ke liye abhi bhi lagbhag 200 points ka faasla hai. Agar minimum update hota hai, to MACD aur CCI indicators pe bullish divergence ban sakta hai, ek ya dono pe. Is signal ki pehchaan indicators ki current position se pehle se lagayi ja sakti hai. Abhi kaam karne ki priority younger periods pe hai, din ke andar sirf niche ki taraf jab rollbacks aur sale formations ban rahe hon. Ye halat tab tak rahega jab tak minimum 141.66 update nahi hota, aur uske baad dekhenge. Abhi tak downward pressure ke kam hone ke koi nishan nahi hain. Chuki low relatively nazdeek hai, price isse cross karne ki koshish karegi, agar general market movement US dollar ke haq mein nahi hoti. Dusri currencies US dollar ke muqablay aur zyada kamzor hoti nazar aa rahi hain. Hamesha trend ke saath kaam karna behtar hota hai, jo success ke chances ko badhata hai, aur hamara trend is daily chart se downward hai. Lekin, aage kuch important news bhi aayegi. Agar ye news US dollar ke liye favorable hoti hain, to ho sakta hai ke low ko cross na karein, halanki wo nazdeek hai. Moscow time 15-30 par: US mein average hourly earnings, non-agricultural sector mein employment ka change, US mein economically active population ka share, private non-agricultural sector mein employment ka change, aur US mein unemployment rate.

USD/JPY Analysis
Price ne 143.24 ka test kiya jab MACD indicator ne zero mark se niche jana shuru kiya, jo ke dollar ko bechne ka sahi entry point confirm karta hai, jo recent months mein downward trend ka hissa raha. Afsos ke saath, pair actively nahi gira aur 30 pips ki girawat ke baad dollar ke liye demand wapas aayi. US session ke beech mein, 143.78 par price ka test hua, lekin jab MACD already zero mark se upar chala gaya tha, isne pair ke upward potential ko limit kar diya. Muje is price ka retest nahi mila jisse scenario 2 ko implement kiya ja sake.

Aaj Japan mein household expenditures aur leading economic indicators ke index ke achhe figures release hue hain, jo dollar par pressure badhate hain aur Japanese yen ko majboot karte hain. Lekin lows par bechne ki jaldi na karein, kyunki aane wale US labor market data current bearish market ko tod sakte hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main zyada tar scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par rely karunga.

Buy Signal:
- Scenario No. 1: Main USD/JPY ko 143.35 ke entry point par khareedne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo chart par green line se plot kiya gaya hai, aur iska maqsad 144.15 tak upar jana hai, jo chart par thicker green line se plot kiya gaya hai. 144.15 ke area mein, main long positions se exit karunga aur short positions kholunga, expect karte hue 30-35 pips ka movement opposite direction se. Aaj, pair ki growth ki ummeed hai correction ke dauran US data ke pehle. Important: Khareedne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar hai aur rise shuru kar raha hai.

- Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko bhi khareedne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 142.74 ka do consecutive tests ho aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse upar le jayega. Hum 143.35 aur 144.15 tak ki growth ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

Sell Signal:
- Scenario No. 1: Main USD/JPY ko aaj sirf 142.74 level ke test ke baad bechne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai, jo pair ko rapid decline ki taraf le jayega. Sellers ke liye key target 142.12 hoga, jahan main short positions se exit karunga aur immediately long positions kholunga, expect karte hue 20-25 pips ka movement opposite direction se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi moment wapas aa sakta hai kyunki dollar ka bearish market khatam nahi hua. Important: Bechne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche hai aur decline shuru kar raha hai.

- Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko bhi bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 143.35 ka do consecutive tests ho aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Ye pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ko reverse downturn ki taraf le jayega. Hum 142.74 aur 142.12 tak ki decline ki ummeed kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY Analysis
**USD/JPY Analysis**
**1. Introduction**
USD/JPY ka taluq US Dollar (USD) aur Japanese Yen (JPY) ke darmiyan trading se hai. Yeh pair forex market mein kaafi popular hai aur global economy ke dynamics ko reflect karta hai. Japan ki economy ek export-driven economy hai, jabke US dunia ki sab se baray economy ke tor par jana jata hai. Is pair ki movement par US aur Japan ke economic data, central bank policies, aur global market sentiment ka kaafi asar hota hai.

**2. Recent Trend**
Agar hum recent USD/JPY ki performance ko dekhein, to US Dollar ne strong trend dikhaya hai. Federal Reserve ki hawkish policies aur US economy ki behtari ki wajah se USD ko support mila hai. Doosri taraf, Japanese Yen thoda weak raha hai, kyun ke Bank of Japan abhi bhi ultra-loose monetary policy ko follow kar raha hai. Japan mein low inflation aur slow economic growth ke issues hain, jo Yen ko pressure mein rakhte hain. Is wajah se USD/JPY ne upar ki taraf momentum show kiya hai, aur pair abhi multi-year highs par trade kar raha hai.

**3. Key Economic Factors**
USD/JPY ko asar andaz karne wale kuch key factors mein sab se important Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki monetary policies hain. Jab Fed interest rates barhata hai, to USD strong hota hai, aur jab BoJ apni policy mein koi change nahi karta, to JPY weak rehta hai. US ka inflation, GDP growth, aur employment data bhi USD ko support karta hai. Japan ki taraf se export data, inflation reports, aur BoJ ki policy stance is pair ki movement ko affect karti hain. Global risk sentiment bhi important role play karta hai; agar market mein risk-off sentiment ho, to Yen ko safe-haven currency ke tor par dekha jata hai.

**4. Technical Analysis**
Agar hum USD/JPY ka technical analysis dekhein, to pair ne recent bullish trend continue rakha hai aur important resistance levels ko break kiya hai. Moving averages aur RSI indicators abhi bhi bullish signals de rahe hain, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke USD/JPY ka upward trend mazeed barqarar reh sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke lehaz se, agar koi major pullback aata hai to key support levels ka analysis karna zaroori hoga. Lekin filhaal momentum USD ke haq mein hai, aur agar koi major economic event na ho, to pair abhi bhi strong position mein rahega.

**5. Conclusion**
USD/JPY ka trend filhaal USD ke favor mein nazar aa raha hai due to Federal Reserve ki aggressive policy aur US economic strength. Japan ki slow economic recovery aur BoJ ki loose policy ne Yen ko weak rakha hai. Agar Japan apni monetary policy mein koi change laata hai ya global markets mein risk-off sentiment barhta hai, to Yen ko thoda support mil sakta hai. Traders ko zaroori hai ke wo dono central banks ki policies aur economic data par nazar rakhein aur market trends ke mutabiq apne trades ko adjust karein.

USD/JPY Price Activity

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke live price ki activity ko decode karne par hai. Price movements tab hoti hain jab koi seller kisi willing buyer ko sell karta hai ya koi buyer apne position ko average karta hai. Kuch specific levels par buyers ko ek mauqa nazar aata hai aur wo market mein enter karte hain. Jab price decline hoti hai, lagta hai ke stop-loss orders trigger hote hain, jo key levels break karne ke baad price ko achanak neeche girne par majboor karte hain. Yeh stops zyadatar large sales ko initiate karte hain, jo aglay central buying zone tak jaari rehti hain. Jabke primary expectation downward move ki hoti hai, lekin hamesha yeh bhi mumkin hai ke buyers price ko upar push karein aglay resistance level 142.39 tak, aur shayad is se bhi upar. Isliye behtari isi mein hai ke pehle situation ko dekh kar analysis kiya jaye aur phir agla prediction kiya jaye.

Japanese yen par abhi bhi sellers ka bohat zyada pressure hai, jo ek strong long-term trend ko establish kar chuke hain, aur is trend ke against jaana munasib nahi lagta. Iss hafte bulls ke sabhi attempts bullish growth ko initiate karne mein naakaam rahe. Hum ne sirf ek corrective wave complete ki, jo 148.79 ka local maximum hit kar gayi. Session ke closure tak hum yearly local minimum tak wapas aaye aur strong horizontal support 144.09 ko break kar diya, jo ek important psychological level tha, isne 141.79 ke minimum tak ka raasta clear kar diya. Monday se, yeh lagta hai ke bears iss support ko break karne ki koshish karenge.

Aaj maine daily chart par focus kiya hai, jahan ek interesting scenario suggest karta hai ke bearish move ka continuation ho sakta hai. Price 144.68 ke 50% resistance level se rebound hui hai aur 1/2 angle ke thoda upar hover kar rahi hai. Mere khayal mein, bears is level par aur test karne ke liye aas paas aayenge. Iss liye, main consolidation expect kar raha hoon followed by another bearish movement aur ek rebound jald dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin USD/JPY pair ne starting mein neeche jaane ka plan nahi banaya, jabke humare paas yahan ek zabardast development hai. Waise, yeh ek pattern ka reaction hai, jab Friday ko price ek direction mein jaati hai aur Monday ko doosri direction mein turn karti hai. Haan, RSI aur Stochastic bhi is further possibility ko confirm karne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Abhi hum middle Bollinger Band ki taraf jaa rahe hain, jo 143.55 par hai. Phir dekhenge, kyunki price us line se neeche bhi ja sakti hai. Agar hum upar jate hain, to agla resistance lower aur upper MA ho sakte hain, jo 144.02 aur 144.49 par hain. Hum in do lines ke paas bhi dekhenge ke price upar break kar sakti hai ya nahi. Agar kar sakti hai, to advance Ballinger Band tak ho sakta hai, jo 145.25 par hai. Agar kisi bhi average se reversal hota hai, to decline Bollinger Bands ko lower kar sakta hai, jo 141.85 par hai. Happy trading!

Ye pair is waqt 143.10 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jab ke Monday ke doran US trading hours ke aghaz mein 143.80 ka weekly peak touch karne ke baad neeche retreat kar gaya. Is decline ka sabab US Dollar (USD) ki softening aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab takriban Thursday ko US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo US ki economic aur employment conditions par naye insights de sakti hai. Is waqt pair ka level 143.14 ke aas paas hai.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting ke recent minutes mein kuch members ki taraf se concerns zahir kiye gaye ke kamzor JPY ki wajah se rising import prices ka asar economy par ho sakta hai, jo inflationary pressures ko barhane ka sabab ban sakti hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke agar cost-push inflation se inflation expectations aur wage growth barh jati hai, to yeh underlying inflation ko aur barha sakta hai. BoJ ki Quarterly Outlook Report, jo Thursday ko release hui, ne suggest kiya ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo inflationary pressures aur tight labor market ka sabab banengi.

Chicago Fed ke President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate hoti hain, to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayar hai. Goolsbee ne Fed ke forward-looking stance par zor diya, aur kaha ke, “Hum forward-looking hain, aur agar economic conditions mein kisi bhi hissa mein girawat nazar ayi, hum usay theek karne ke liye tayar hain.” Isse Fed ke proactive approach ka pata chalta hai, jo economic challenges ko tackle karne ke liye tayar hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technically dekha jaye to pair apne descending channel ke upper boundary ko test kar raha hai, jo 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 143.59 par hai. Agar price is resistance level ko break karne mein kaamyab hoti hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 par "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair apni upward trajectory ko maintain nahi karta, to yeh descending channel ki lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai, jo throwback support ke qareeb 140.21 par hai, jo December mein dekha gaya tha.

Agar pair 142.00 mark se neeche girta hai, to agla support level 141.44 ka low ho sakta hai, jo ke ek significant support hai. Iske baad support 140.28 par milega. Agar yeh levels breach hote hain, to agla support August 6 ka daily low 143.61 par hoga, aur recent cycle low 141.69 par milega. Halanke Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory se bahar nikal gaya hai, lekin iski flat slope yeh batati hai ke USD/JPY pair mein abhi consolidation chal rahi hai.

Ye pair is waqt 143.10 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jab ke Monday ke doran US trading hours ke aghaz mein 143.80 ka weekly peak touch karne ke baad neeche retreat kar gaya. Is decline ka sabab US Dollar (USD) ki softening aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab takriban Thursday ko US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo US ki economic aur employment conditions par naye insights de sakti hai. Is waqt pair ka level 143.14 ke aas paas hai.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting ke recent minutes mein kuch members ki taraf se concerns zahir kiye gaye ke kamzor JPY ki wajah se rising import prices ka asar economy par ho sakta hai, jo inflationary pressures ko barhane ka sabab ban sakti hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke agar cost-push inflation se inflation expectations aur wage growth barh jati hai, to yeh underlying inflation ko aur barha sakta hai. BoJ ki Quarterly Outlook Report, jo Thursday ko release hui, ne suggest kiya ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo inflationary pressures aur tight labor market ka sabab banengi.

Chicago Fed ke President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate hoti hain, to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayar hai. Goolsbee ne Fed ke forward-looking stance par zor diya, aur kaha ke, “Hum forward-looking hain, aur agar economic conditions mein kisi bhi hissa mein girawat nazar ayi, hum usay theek karne ke liye tayar hain.” Isse Fed ke proactive approach ka pata chalta hai, jo economic challenges ko tackle karne ke liye tayar hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Technically dekha jaye to pair apne descending channel ke upper boundary ko test kar raha hai, jo 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 143.59 par hai. Agar price is resistance level ko break karne mein kaamyab hoti hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 par "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair apni upward trajectory ko maintain nahi karta, to yeh descending channel ki lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai, jo throwback support ke qareeb 140.21 par hai, jo December mein dekha gaya tha.

Agar pair 142.00 mark se neeche girta hai, to agla support level 141.44 ka low ho sakta hai, jo ke ek significant support hai. Iske baad support 140.28 par milega. Agar yeh levels breach hote hain, to agla support August 6 ka daily low 143.61 par hoga, aur recent cycle low 141.69 par milega. Halanke Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory se bahar nikal gaya hai, lekin iski flat slope yeh batati hai ke USD/JPY pair mein abhi consolidation chal rahi hai.

USD/JPY Price Projection
Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior ke ird-gird hai, jise hum analyze kar rahe hain. USD/JPY pair 142.29 par close hua. H4 technical chart par, Envelopes indicator girawat ka ishara de raha hai, jabke Momentum indicator selling opportunity ka suggestion de raha hai. MACD bhi negative territory mein hai, jo aur zyada downward movement ki likelihood ko reinforce karta hai, shayad yeh 140.01 tak jaa sakta hai. Lekin, main zyada uchi level par sell karne ka plan bana raha hoon, ideally 147.01 ke qareeb, jahan mujhe ek rise ki umeed hai. Yeh idea hai ke price ko upar jane diya jaye, sellers ke stop-losses ko collect kiya jaye, aur phir niche ki taraf dive kiya jaye. Bullish outlook stable hai. Yeh speculative hai, aur market hi actual outcome tay karega.


Agar recent liquidity drop ke baad fully likely nahi thi aur minimum 142.11 par possible tha, toh pair ke further drop hone ki potential abhi bhi hai, shayad ek x-point tak. Lekin main foran sell nahi karunga agar pair market khulne ke baad girta hai. Main market ke behavior ko observe karunga, kyunki unexpected liquidity withdrawals lower levels par quick reversal ko janam de sakti hai. Pair naye formed low ko test kar sakta hai phir upward surprise ka samna kar sakta hai, jo ke increased buying volumes se driven ho sakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, toh hum 143.27 ki taraf rapid price increase dekh sakte hain. Humein 142.30 level ko dhyan se dekhna chahiye us waqt, kyunki price thodi si dip kar sakti hai phir upward trend resume kar sakti hai. Agar pair 142.30 ke neeche nahi girti, toh price 147.86 level ki taraf rally kar sakti hailikely nahi thi aur minimum 142.11 par possible tha, toh pair ke further drop hone ki potential abhi bhi hai, shayad ek x-point tak. Lekin main foran sell nahi karunga agar pair market khulne ke baad girta hai. Main market ke behavior ko observe karunga, kyunki unexpected liquidity withdrawals lower levels par quick reversal ko janam de sakti hai. Pair naye formed low ko test kar sakta hai phir upward surprise ka samna kar sakta hai, jo ke increased buying volumes se driven ho sakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, toh hum 143.27 jahan significant volume of liquidity intazaar kar rahi hai.

USD/JPY MARKET ANALYSIS
Pichle haftay ke doran, bears ne initiative bulls ko de diya, price ko upar push kiya gaya, lekin bulls ne resistance dikhaya aur lambi growth ko develop nahi hone diya. Yahan wave structure ab bhi downward order mein ban raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sales zone mein hai, lekin ab bhi apni signal line ke upar hai. Lagta hai ke price current August ka minimum update karne ja rahi hai, aur iske liye ab bhi 200 points ka achha distance hai. Agar August ka minimum update hota hai, toh ek bullish divergence MACD aur CCI indicators par shayad ban sakti hai, ek ya dono par ek saath. Indicators ki current position se yeh signal aage se predict kiya ja sakta hai. Is waqt ka priority yeh hai ke younger periods ke andar din ke dauran sirf downward movement par kaam kiya jaye jab bhi rollbacks aur sale formations banti hain, yeh situation tab tak chalegi jab tak 141.66 ka minimum update nahi hota, aur uske baad dekha jayega. Filhal downward pressure ke kam hone ke koi nishan nahi hain. Kyunki low relatively close hai, price zyada chances hai ke isse bahar nikle, agar general market movement US dollar ke favor mein na ho, jo ke kaafi mumkin hai. Dusri currencies lagta hai ke American dollar ke muqablay mein aur kamzor ho rahi hain. Har haal mein, trend ke saath kaam karna hamesha behtar hota hai, isse success ke chances barhte hain, aur hamara trend downward hai daily chart aur niche se. Lekin, aaj kuch significant news aane wali hain. Agar yeh news US dollar ke favor mein hoti hain, toh ho sakta hai ke hum low se bahar na nikle, halanke yeh nazdeek hai. Moscow time ke 15-30 par: US mein Average Hourly Earnings, US mein Non-Agricultural Sector mein Employment ki Change, US mein Economically Active Population ka Share, US mein Private Non-Agricultural Sector mein Employment ki Change, aur US mein Unemployment Rate.

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Technical side se, USD/JPY ek mixed picture dikhata hai jahan potential bullishness ke nishan hain. 4-hour chart par ek significant Hammer candlestick ban rahi hai, jo reversal ya notable upward move ka signal de sakti hai agar pattern session ke close tak intact rahe. Triangular Moving Average channel ke sath Zigzag indicator bhi yeh suggest karte hain ke pair upward trend mein hai, jo buying opportunities ko indicate karta hai. Laguerre aur RSI oscillators bhi bullish activity ko favor karte hain. RSI yeh indicate karta hai ke market oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo aksar price rebound ka precursor hota hai. Agar yeh upward momentum continue hota hai, toh pair shayad Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 152.350 tak target kar sakta hai. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhna chahiye aur further confirmation ka intezar karna chahiye before entering positions. Toh, technical indicators USD/JPY ke liye ek possible bullish run ka hint dete hain, lekin economic reports aur market sentiment par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Halanke technical signals buying ko favor karte hain, fundamental drivers ab bhi pair ki future direction ko shape karne mein significant role play karte hain.

Technical Analysis of Forex Dollar Yen
USD/JPY pair mein kafi tezi se girawat dekhne ko mili, jo 145.00 ke qareeb chali gayi. Yeh girawat Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish statement ki wajah se hui. Ueda ne is baat par zor diya ke BOJ ko is saal mazeed interest rates barhane ki zarurat hai, aur agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hui, toh central bank der nahi karega. Is baat ne Japanese yen ko mazbooti di aur USD/JPY pair par selling pressure ban gaya. Filhal yeh 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb hai.

Iske bawajood ke US dollar mazboot hai, jiska saboot US Dollar Index (DXY) ka 102.00 ke two-week high par pohanchna hai, lekin USD/JPY pair ab bhi pressure mein hai. US dollar investors ke ehtiyaat bharay rujhan ki wajah se bara hai, jo ke upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ke intizaar mein hain, jo ke juma ko aane wala hai. Yeh economic data is liye ahem hai kyun ke Federal Reserve ab labor market ke downside risks ko manage karne par zyada focus kar raha hai, jab ke inflation 2% target ki taraf wapas aane par pur-umeed hai.

Economic calendar ke mutabiq... Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), jo ke fresh food ko chhor kar measure kiya gaya hai, August mein expected se zyada barh kar 2.4% tak pohanch gaya, jo ke Bank of Japan ke hawkish stance ko justify karta hai.

Stock trading ke moamlat mein… U.S. stock indices mein tezi se girawat hui, khas tor par technology stocks mein. Tuesday ke din U.S. stocks mein kafi girawat dekhi gayi, jo ke August 5 ke baad se sab se buri performance thi. Economic concerns aur technology stocks ki bade peemane par selling ki wajah se S&P 500 mein 2.1% ki girawat, tech-heavy Nasdaq mein 3.1% ki girawat, aur Dow Jones mein 625 points ka nuqsan hua.



Aaj ka USD/JPY forecast:

Daily chart ke mutabiq, USD/JPY price ka general rujhan ab bhi strongly neeche ki taraf hai aur agar support level 144.00 tak chala jata hai, toh bears mazeed neeche ki taraf strong movement karenge, aur yeh girawat 141.75 ke support tak ja sakti hai, jo is waqt ka sabse prominent level hai. Doosri taraf, jab tak price wapas psychological resistance 150.00 ke level tak nahi aata, trend ka actual reversal nahi hoga. Yeh currency pair apni current range mein move karta rahega jab tak US jobs numbers ke announcement par markets aur investors ka reaction nahi aata.

USD/JPY Price Move
Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior par baat kar rahe hain. Aaj ke din USD/JPY pair mein girawat dekhne ko mili, jo apne target tak pohanch gayi aur 145.44 ka support level test kiya, ab yeh qareeb 145.81 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai. RSI middle range mein move kar raha hai aur upward trend show kar raha hai, jab ke Awesome Oscillator (AO) ne oversold condition ka ishara diya hai. Pair ab bhi pichle din ke trading range ke neeche hai, jo ek possible reversal ki nishani ho sakti hai. Price 146.94 ke resistance level ko test karegi. Filhal main USD/JPY pair ko 4-hour time frame mein dekh raha hoon, jahan sellers ne price ko kaafi neeche push kiya, lekin unki momentum kam ho rahi hai. Mujhe 144.063 par buying ka moka nazar aa raha hai, aur upper resistance level 146.778 tak ka profit target dekh raha hoon. Is setup mein ek acha risk-to-reward ratio hai, jo favorable market conditions ke hawale se decent profit de sakta hai.




Pair ne daily chart par kuch dino se upward move kiya hai, lekin aaj bearish movement dekhne ko mili hai. Yeh abhi tak clear nahi ke downtrend continue karega ya koi naya scenario develop hoga. Aaj ke news ke hawale se, U.S. se positive data aaya hai aur mazeed koi ahem news expected nahi hai. Japan se bhi 10-year Japanese bond auction conclude ho gayi hai, lekin koi bara update expected nahi. Technical analysis ko samajhne ke liye dekhte hain ke moving averages selling ka ishara kar rahe hain, aur technical indicators bhi sell recommendation ke saath align karte hain, jo further bearish movement ki taraf ishara karte hain. Magar abhi ek decisive move ki zarurat hai. Current conditions ke mutabiq, main aaj sideways movement ki umeed kar raha hoon, jahan sales 145.49 ke support level tak aur buys 146.29 ke resistance level tak ho sakti hain. Yeh pair near term mein sideways trade karega.

USD/JPY Price Move Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke current pricing behavior par baat kar rahe hain. Aaj ke din USD/JPY pair mein girawat dekhne ko mili, jo apne target tak pohanch gayi aur 145.44 ka support level test kiya, ab yeh qareeb 145.81 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai. RSI middle range mein move kar raha hai aur upward trend show kar raha hai, jab ke Awesome Os cillator (AO) ne oversold condition ka ishara diya hai. Pair ab bhi pichle din ke trading range ke neeche hai, jo ek possible reversal ki nishani ho sakti hai. Price 146.94 ke resistance level ko test karegi. Filhal main USD/JPY pair ko 4-hour time frame mein dekh raha hoon, jahan sellers ne price ko kaafi neeche push kiya, lekin unki momentum kam ho rahi hai. Mujhe 144.063 par buying ka moka nazar aa raha hai, aur upper resistance level 146.778 tak ka profit target dekh raha hoon. Is setup mein ek acha risk-to-reward ratio hai, jo favorable market conditions ke hawale se decent profit de sakta hai.

ko mili hai. Yeh abhi tak clear nahi ke downtrend continue karega ya koi naya scenario develop hoga. Aaj ke news ke hawale se, U.S. se positive data aaya hai aur mazeed koi ahem news expected nahi hai. Japan se bhi 10-year Japanese bond auction conclude ho gayi hai, lekin koi bara update expected nahi. Technical analysis ko samajhne ke liye dekhte hain ke moving averages selling ka ishara kar rahe hain, aur technical indicators bhi sell recommendation ke saath align karte hain, jo further bearish movement ki taraf ishara karte hain. Magar abhi ek decisive move ki zarurat hai. Current conditions ke mutabiq, main aaj sideways movement ki umeed kar raha hoon, jahan sales 145.49 ke support level tak aur buys 146.29 ke resistance level tak ho sakti hain. Yeh pair near term mein sideways trade karega.

USD/JPY قیمتوں کے ذریعے مارکیٹ کی حرکات


USD/JPY کرنسی جوڑے کی قیمتوں کے تجزیے پر ہماری گفتگو مرکوز ہوگی۔ USD/JPY کرنسی جوڑا اس ہفتے کے اختتام پر 146.69 کے علاقے کے قریب ایک اصلاحی حرکت کے ساتھ بند ہوا، اور اپنی اوپر کی جانب حرکت جاری رکھی۔ حالانکہ موونگ ایوریجز ایک مچھلی (bearish) رجحان کی نشاندہی کر رہی ہیں، قیمتیں 145.01 کے نشان سے اوپر ہیں، جو امریکی ڈالر پر خریداروں کے دباؤ کو ظاہر کرتی ہیں اور موجودہ سطحوں سے مزید اضافے کا امکان بھی بتا رہی ہیں۔

اس مرحلے پر ہمیں قیمت کی ممکنہ اصلاح کی توقع کرنی چاہیے، جو 145.01 کے ارد گرد سپورٹ لیول کو ٹیسٹ کرے گی۔ ایک متوقع ریباؤنڈ جوڑی کو 150.01 لیول سے آگے بڑھا سکتا ہے۔ تاہم، اگر جوڑی نیچے گرتی ہے اور 145.01 کے نشان کو توڑ دیتی ہے، تو یہ زوال کو جاری رکھنے کا اشارہ ہوگا، جس کا ممکنہ ہدف 142.01 کے علاقے سے نیچے ہوسکتا ہے۔ جب ٹرینڈ لائن ٹوٹ گئی، تو بُلز نے دوبارہ کنٹرول حاصل کرنے کی کوشش کی، لیکن ان کی کوششیں نیچے سے ٹرینڈ لائن کو ٹیسٹ کرنے تک محدود رہیں، اور کوئی قابل ذکر کامیابی حاصل نہیں ہو سکی۔

دوسری طرف، اگر بُلز دوبارہ ٹرینڈ لائن کو توڑنے اور اس کے اوپر اپنی پوزیشن کو محفوظ بنانے میں کامیاب ہو جاتے ہیں، تو یہ عالمی رجحان کی بحالی کی نشاندہی کر سکتا ہے۔ اوسط قیمتوں کی عمومی حرکت نیچے کی طرف ہے، اور ڈائنامک فلٹر بھی نیچے کی طرف حرکت کر رہا ہے۔ پہلے، ڈائنامک فلٹر کی کنٹرول لائن نے اصلاح کو سپورٹ کیا تھا، لیکن اب، روزانہ کینڈل پیٹرنز بتاتے ہیں کہ بیچنے والے بتدریج زور پکڑ رہے ہیں۔ آسکیلیٹر ونڈو میں موجود اشاریے، بشمول ڈائنامک RSI، نیچے کی طرف مڑنا شروع ہو گئے ہیں، حالانکہ ڈائنامک RSI ابھی تک چینل کی اوپری حد سے نیچے نہیں گیا۔ جونیئر RSI بھی آہستہ آہستہ نیچے کی طرف مڑ رہا ہے، جبکہ دن اور ہفتہ کا RSI نیچے کی سطح پر موجود ہے، جو نیچے کی طرف رجحان کے مطابق ہے۔

اس مرحلے پر یہ کہنا مشکل ہے کہ اگلی نیچے کی حرکت میں قیمت کتنی کم ہو سکتی ہے، لیکن قریب ترین ہدف 145.51 ہے۔ اس کے بعد کا رخ ابھی غیر یقینی ہے۔

USD / JPY Technical Analysis:

usdjpy pair abhi bhi medium aur long-term mein ek upward trend ke andar trade kar raha hai jo overall buying ko tajwez banata hai. Ek mahine pehle market reversal hone ka khatra tha khaaskar carry trade strategy potentially ek shift signal kar rahi thi. Magar, ye chand dinon tak tha, aur market normal rukh par wapas lagti hai. Mere chart par maine ek ascending trend channel mark kiya hai, aur prices haal hi mein uske upper boundary se pullback kiya hai. Ye indicate karta hai ke ek possible downward correction shuru ho chuki hai. Is waqt, mujhe koi wazeh selling opportunity nahi nazar aa rahi, lekin agar price 151.72 ke aas paas ke support level se rebound karta hai, to buying attractive ho sakti hai, agar lower timeframes par confirming signals hain. Main buying ki taraf lean kar raha hoon, lekin mein ye bhi tasleem karta hoon ke prices mazeed neeche jaane ki sambhavna hai, isliye main apne approach mein flexible rahunga.
USD / JPY W1 Chart:



USD / JPY ke weekly chart par dekhte hue ek upward move ki koshish hui thi, lekin wo sustain nahi hui, aur ab humare paas "spinning top" candle hai, jo market mein uncertainty signal karta hai. Last teen candles se ek expanding triangle bhi ban raha hai, haan maine ise draw nahi kiya, lekin ye kaafi clear hai.