usd/jpy

Dear Members: Ess USD/JPY kay new trader kay adad o shumar say pata chalta hiya 27.Sixty six dealer net lengthy hotay hein or foreign exchange trading ka quick say long ke ratio 2.Sixty two say 1 hiya net long trader ke general tadad four.Ninety eight say zyada hello or guzashta week say 5.22% say kam howdy jab keh internet quick dealer ke kul tadad mokabelay 1. 10 % say kam hey or guzashta week say 16.67 % say zyada whats upyeh aam tor par crowd kay emotion kay opposite point of view rakhtay hein or reality yeh hiya keh dealer khales short hey es say pata yeh chalta hiya keh USD/JPY ke prices growth ho rehe hein positions kull net kay makbelay mein zyada short hein laken last week kay makebalay mein zyada short hote hein majodah feelings or currently tabdeleon ke wajah say mazeed makhlot USD/JPY trading tasub frahm karty hein
Ess chart Mn July ke height kay ezafay kay awful USD/JPY ke sharah pechlay kuch days say forestall ho benefit hein jo keh forex marketplace mein trend line chamtay hovay hein goya yeh es bat ko discover karte hello keh trader mein hein breakout ya dobara breakout ke koi pain wajah ho sakte hello ya nahe yahan say ache wajah yeh howdy 139.39 ke salana onchai ko awareness lay kar aay ga jab keh july ke swing low say nechay dahkailnay ke wajah march or August ke swing low say barahtay hovay trend line ke taraf h jay ge jo keh month kay end mein 133.00 kay kareen ho jay ge

Pair Friday ko notable decline ka shikar hua, jahan 144.09 ka daily high hit karke yeh wapis 142.29 par settle hui, jo market close par 0.17% ka drop dikhata hai. Yeh retreat pair ke liye 144.00 level ke upar rehne ki struggle ko highlight karta hai, jiske natijay mein yeh 142.00 ke region ki taraf pullback hua.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

USD/JPY ka yeh drop US se fresh data ki wajah se aaya, jo July ke liye Unemployment Rate mein izafa dikhata hai, jisse US economy mein possible recession ke concerns barh gaye hain. Market ka reaction Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rate cuts ko price karne mein hai. Ab investors September aur November mein 50 basis point (bps) ka rate cut anticipate kar rahe hain, aur December mein ek aur quarter-point cut ki umeed hai. LSEG ke data ke mutabiq, September meeting mein 50-bps cut ki probability kareeban 99% hai. Yeh aggressive rate cuts ki expectations US Dollar (USD) par downward pressure daal rahi hain.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki policy outlook zyada optimistic hai. Rabobank ke analysts ne note kiya ke BoJ ke recent policy statement Japan ki economic prospects ka positive assessment reflect karta hai, jisme fixed investment mein moderate izafa aur corporate profits mein behtari shamil hai. Mazeed, wage increases mukhtalif regions, industries, aur firm sizes mein phail rahi hain. Yeh optimistic outlook 2024 ke aakhir ya 2025 ke shuru mein potential rate hikes ke liye guzarishat chhodta hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ne Friday ko 141.80 ke neeche close kiya, lekin phir bhi March 2023 se apne sabse bade gains record kiye. Agar pair momentum gain karte hue 145.00 ko cross karta hai, to yeh Tenkan-Sen level 146.45 ko test kar sakti hai. Aur upward movement se exchange rate 147.00 ko challenge kar sakti hai, aur 100-day moving average (DMA) ke taraf push ho sakta hai jo 151.32 par hai.




Spot price Friday ko 142.00 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi thi. Daily chart yeh suggest karta hai ke pair 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke taraf 144.99 par barh rahi hai, jo bearish momentum ki kamzori ko indicate karta hai. Mazeed, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is waqt 30 se neeche hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke pair oversold ho sakti hai aur short-term rebound experience kar sakti hai.

**USD/JPY Analysis in Roman Urdu:**

**Greetings.**

Asal mein, market khulnay ke foran baad hi, USD/JPY pair ne strong bullish price action dikhaya aur yeh sabhi major pairs mein se ek hi pair tha jo US Dollar Index se associated tha aur jald market khulnay ke baad acha price action dikhaya. Yeh phenomenon suggest karta hai ke shayad pichlay trading week ke upper limit ke upar bohot zyada liquidity ka accumulation tha, jo ke recent upward price movement se remove ho gaya. Main raat ko soya raha aur yeh trade miss ho gaya, lekin is waqt yeh expect karna reasonable hai ke jab USD/JPY liquidity top se puri tarah se remove hogi, toh hum chart pe bearish impulse increased volumes ke sath dekh sakte hain jo ke price ko sharp drop karke accumulation area 153.21 tak le jayegi. Agar yeh such hai aur 153.21 level se price upar jati hai aur aise halat mein 153.55 ka accumulation price ko upar nahi jane deta, toh is scenario ke mutabiq 153.55 level se price niche gir sakti hai 151.69 ke mark par jo accumulated volumes ka area hai.



Sirf yeh baat hai ke south mein correction nahi hui, balke teen trading days ka corridor tha, jo ke yeh growth ki movement possible banayi. Aaj, north ki taraf sab kuch nahi liya gaya aur ek increase hoga, zyada tar yeh American session mein hoga, aur humein is moment ka intezar karna hoga, shayad main 154 figures ke beech se bhi sell kar doon. Har surat mein, trading logic yeh suggest karti hai. Aam tor par hum Europe mein acha perform nahi karte, lekin yahan din ke opening se hi hum north ki taraf move kar rahe hain aur ab naye heights ko achi tarah se cover kar rahe hain. Yeh decline ka possibility hai jo fikr ka sabab hai, aur yeh saaf hai ke bulls ke liye mushkil halat mein level 152.43 ko reach karne ki taqat hogi. Yeh dekhna asan hai ke yen niche ja sakti hai, aur yeh trend visually bhi dekh sakte hain - downward trend future mein extend hoti hai.

USD/JPY H4 Chart

Kal, USD/JPY pair ne resistance line ko test karne ke liye kuch positive attempts kiye, jo ke filhal 161.563 par hai. Iske sath hi, MACD indicators ke through clear negative signals dekhne ko mile hain, jo agle sessions mein bearish trend ko resume karne ke chances ko support karte hain. Agar price 161.83-161.58 ke beech bounce back kare, toh yeh 161.48-161.73 ki taraf agle major station ke liye raasta khol sakti hai. Yad rahe, agar 161.80-161.63 ka breach hota hai, toh USD/JPY price ko higher push kar ke near term mein 161.93 ke pre-recorded high tak pohcha sakta hai. Kal ke trading session mein, USD/JPY pair ne multiple attempts kiye resistance line ko test karne ke liye, jo ke filhal 161.563 par hai, jo traders ke liye ek significant level hai. MACD indicators negative signals de rahe hain, jo bearish trend ko resume karne ke chances ko badhate hain. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar price is level se rebound kare, toh bearish trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai.



Global bullish trend ke formation ka hissa hai. Ek alternative option price movement ke liye next test ke dauran resistance level 164.500 par ek plan hoga reversal candle ke formation ka aur price movement ke downward resumption ka. Agar yeh plan work out hota hai, toh main intezar karunga ke price support level tak return kare, jo ke 160.209 par located hai, ya phir support level tak, jo ke 157.671 par located hai. In support levels ke kareeb, main bullish signals ko search karta rahunga anticipation mein price movement ke upward resumption ke. General mein, agar hum mukhtasir baat karein, toh aaj locally yeh maan lete hain ke yeh price ko north tak nearest resistance level tak move karne ki koshish kar sakte hain, aur phir main market situation se proceed karunga, bullish scenarios ko priority dete hue.

Japanese Yen ka Trade Analysis aur Trading Tips
Price test 142.82 par us waqt hua jab MACD indicator zero mark se neeche aana shuru hua, jo ke dollar ko sell karne ka sahi entry point tha, jabke pichlay chand mahino se downward trend nazar aa raha hai. Iske natijay mein, pair 80 pips se zyada neeche gaya, magar hum target level tak nahi pohanch paye. Halankeh US dollar ne haftay ke end tak doosri currencies ke muqable mein kuch nuqsan recover kiye, magar Japanese yen ke sath surat-e-haal alag rahi. US unemployment mein kami ki khabar se jo dollar ki kharidari hui thi, wo jaldi khatam ho gayi, aur US session ke akhir mein ek aur USD/JPY sell-off dekhne ko mili. Aaj Japan ke GDP growth mein kami aur bank lending mein reduction ki khabar ne yen ki positions ko asar andaz kiya, jisse Friday ke sell-off ke baad pair mein thoda recovery dekhne ko mila. Aaj trading ke horizontal channel mein hone ka imkaan hai, kyun ke koi significant data expected nahi hai. Intraday strategy ke liye, mein scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada rely karoon ga.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj mera plan yeh hai ke USD/JPY ko us waqt buy karoon ga jab price 143.11 ke entry point tak pohanchay, jo chart par green line se dikhayi gayi hai. Mera target 143.80 tak ka hoga, jo ke chart par thick green line se plot kiya gaya hai. 143.80 area par, main apni long positions exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein short positions open karoon ga, 30-35 pips ki movement ki umeed rakhta hoon. Aaj pair mein correction ke tor par izafa dekhne ka imkaan hai. Ahm baat: Buy karne se pehle MACD indicator ko zero mark ke upar hona chahiye aur wahan se rise karna shuru karna chahiye.

Scenario No. 2: Aaj mera plan yeh bhi hai ke USD/JPY ko us waqt buy karoon ga jab 142.74 par do consecutive tests hon aur MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reversal ka sabab banega. Umeed hai ke price 143.11 aur 143.80 tak upar jayegi.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj mera plan yeh hai ke USD/JPY ko sirf us waqt sell karoon ga jab price 142.74 ka level test kare, jo ke chart par red line se plot kiya gaya hai. Yeh pair mein tezi se girawat ka sabab banayega. Sellers ke liye key target 142.02 ka hoga, jahan main apni short positions close karoon ga aur foran opposite direction mein long positions open karoon ga, 20-25 pips ki movement ki umeed ke sath. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyun ke dollar ke liye bearish market abhi khatam nahi hui. Ahm baat:Sell karne se pehle MACD indicator ko zero mark ke neeche hona chahiye aur wahan se decline shuru hona chahiye.

Scenario No. 2: Mera plan yeh bhi hai ke USD/JPY ko us waqt sell karoon ga jab 143.11 par do consecutive tests hon aur MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market mein downturn ka sabab banega. Umeed hai ke price 142.74 aur 142.02 tak neeche jayegi.

USD/JPY: Price Action ka Kirdar
Hum iss waqt USD/JPY currency pair ke current price behaviour ka tajzia kar rahe hain. Pichlay haftay ke price movements ki buniyad par lagta hai ke yeh girawat barqarar rahegi. USD/JPY ne qareeb qareeb apna recent low choo liya hai, aur jabke internal pattern tootay nahi, ab mujhe nahi lagta ke yeh apne target tak pohonchega. Yeh zyada mumkin lagta hai ke USD/JPY aglay haftay naye lows ko test karega, jo ke price ko weekly Fibonacci retracement ke 38.1% level tak ley aaye ga. Kyun ke koi significant support mojood nahi hai, price mukammal tor par recover nahi kar paayegi, jisse yeh nateeja nikalta hai ke correction phase apne ikhtitam ki taraf hai. 38.1% Fibonacci level ek mazboot support represent karta hai, jo ke price ke ulatnay aur mazeed growth ko mumkin banata hai. Lekin Wednesday ki khabrein aane tak, mein zyada tajziya nahi karunga. Haal waqe’an ajeeb lag raha hai, hatta ke weekly time frame par bhi. Pichlay haftay ki bearish move ka low 141.694 tha, magar yeh bullish push ke liye mumkin nahi tha. Jabke correction ke baad yeh girawat technical lagti hai, yeh ek aam buyer ka peeche hatna bhi reflect karti hai pehle ke dollar ko mazeed taqat mile aur koi bullish move aaye.




4-hour chart bhi downward momentum dikhata hai, halan ke yeh move mutawaqqa thi. Ideally, yeh bearish push 141.694 ke low se correct hone ke foran baad aani chahiye thi. Main daily charts par focus kar raha hoon tamaam yen pairs ke liye, lekin abhi tak koi significant rebounds nazar nahi aaye. Chotay time frames sirf entry points pinpoint karne mein madadgar hain, lekin overall direction downtrend mein barqarar hai. Ek local platform form ho chuka hai, lekin abhi bhi kuch targets baqi hain. Yeh baat bhi kaabil-e-ghaur hai ke negative NFP data ke bawajood, Friday ko dollar mazid taqatwar hua, halan ke is pair par iska zyada asar nahi para, jo yen ki resilience ko dikhata hai. Mazeed, Japan ka GDP data bhi raat ko release hoga. Mera southern bias abhi bhi barqarar hai, lekin agar hum 146.64 se upar chalay jatay hain, toh mein iss level par selling opportunities ko consider kar sakta hoon.

USD/JPY Price Activity
Hamari guftagu ka markaz USD/JPY currency pair ki live pricing ko decode karna hai. Price movements tab hotay hain jab koi seller apni cheez bechta hai ya phir koi buyer apni position average karta hai. Kuch khaas levels par, buyers ko moka nazar aata hai aur woh market mein dakhil ho jatay hain. Jab girawat hoti hai, toh lagta hai ke stop-loss orders trigger ho jatay hain, jo ke price ko tezhi se neeche gira detay hain jab key levels break hotay hain. Yeh is liye ho sakta hai ke stops se zyada sales initiate hoti hain, jo aglay central buying zone tak chalti rehti hain. Jabke primary expectation yeh hai ke price aur neeche jayegi, hamesha yeh imkan hota hai ke buyers price ko upar dhakel kar aglay resistance 142.39 tak ley jayen, aur shayad us se bhi upar. Behtareen yeh hoga ke hum dekhain ke halaat kis tarah unfold hotay hain, aglay predictions karne se pehle.




Daily chart par jo recent downward trend hai, woh broader correction ki teesri wave ke mutabiq lagti hai. Agar yeh theek hai, toh girawat abhi khatam nahi hui, aur mazeed drops ke imkanat hain. Lekin agar yeh ek bara correction ka hissa hai, toh reversal bhi kareeb ho sakta hai. Abhi tak price gir rahi hai, aur yeh logical lagta hai ke hum pullback ka intezar karein mazeed sales consider karne se pehle, jo ke 140.348 ke aas paas ho sakti hain. Hum iss forecast ko primary outlook ke tor par istimaal karte hain, dekhte hain ke sellers control hasil kar saktay hain ya nahi. Current signal downward direction dikhata hai, aur Forex neural network bhi continued bearish move ka ishara de raha hai. Agar bears local support range se neeche break kar jatay hain, toh ek aur zyada wazeh downward trajectory mumkin hai, jo sell forecast ko confirm karegi. Lekin agar sellers apni momentum ko barqarar nahi rakh pate, toh bulls control hasil kar saktay hain. Yeh zaroori hai ke hum potential false breakouts se hamesha hoshiyar rahain.

USD/JPY Price Direction
Hamari tajziya ka mawzoo USD/JPY currency pair ke mojooda pricing behaviour ka jaiza hai. Hal hi mein, USD/JPY pair ne 144.53 ka support level tor diya hai, jo yeh ishara karta hai ke downtrend barqarar reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad pair mein 99-point ki girawat dekhne ko mili, lekin phir buyers ne kuch recovery ki aur price ko 144.53 ke resistance level tak le aaye. Iss point se sell positions open karna munasib lagta hai, jahan target 140-141 ke range tak girawat ka ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery agay barh kar 146.38 ke aglay resistance tak ja sakti hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jo ek flag ke tara lagta hai, is baat ki nishani hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Magar H4 chart par pair abhi bhi ek descending channel mein hai, jahan se yeh apni lower boundary se bounce kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ko break karta hai, toh 145.69 tak ka target rakh kar buying strategy munasib ho sakti hai.




USD/JPY pair ne hal hi mein qareeb 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin uske baad recover karte hue American trading session ke ikhtitam tak 100 points gain kiye. Ab daily price chart ek bullish pattern dikhata hai. Bears ab tak price ko 144.99 ke key level se neeche push karne mein nakam rahe hain, jo is baat par shak paida karta hai ke downtrend jaari rahega. Haal ke market uncertainty ko dekhte hue, behtareen yeh hoga ke ehtiyat baratayi jaye, kyun ke price kuch din tak iss level par stay kar sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek strong weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke dollar mein jald hi ek corrective rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Speaker filhaal sirf pair ko sell karne ka soch raha hai, aur abhi khareedne ka koi irada nahi hai. Currency pair ne 143.99 ka level neeche se test kiya tha, aur ab 144.49 tak wapas aa gaya hai, jo ek positive sign hai. Bulls shayad price ko aur 49 points upar push karen Asian trading session ke doran. Haal ka price 143.43 hai, jo ke 141.70 ke important support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level un traders ke liye ek ahem target lagta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Thodi consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girawat dekh sakta hai. Lekin, Bank of Japan kehte hain ke woh USD/JPY exchange rate mein kisi badi girawat ko bardasht nahi karen ge. Unho ne pehle hi yeh ishara diya hai ke agar yen ki value me tezi se tabdeeli aati hai, toh woh currency market mein mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh zyada taqatwar hota hai. Iss liye, 129 ka target realistic nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan shayad 139 ke aas paas mudakhlat karen aur bohot zyada yen inject karen apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye.

USD/JPY: Ek Hourly Trading Plan



USD/JPY ka market scenario doosri currency pairs se mukhtalif hai. Bohat se pairs United States Dollar ke muqable mein kamzori dikhate hain, lekin USD/JPY ka halat bilkul alag hai. Yahaan par bears (sellers) ne bulls (buyers) ke muqable mein kafi taqat dikhayi hai. Yeh bearish dominance recent price action mein nazar aati hai, jahan USD/JPY 142.37 ke level par close hui, jo ek ahem support area hai. Yeh support level mazboot sabit hua hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke jabke bears ka control hai, abhi bhi ek bullish reversal ka imkan mojood hai. USD/JPY market mein bounce aasakta hai aur aglay trading din mein 142.65 level ko test kar sakti hai. Yeh mumkin upward movement ek important moka faraham karti hai ke market ke behaviour se faida uthaya ja sake.

Iss scenario ko samajhne ke liye sirf potential price levels pehchan na zaroori nahi hai, balki ek well-thought-out trading plan aur effective money management strategies ka hona bhi laazmi hai. Investors ko barayi ehtiyaat tayyari karni chahiye, apni trading setups ko iss tarah se banaana chahiye ke woh dono possibilities, yani aagay girawat ya rebound, dono ko madde nazar rakhein. Behtareen money management techniques ka istemal kar ke risk ko kam karna aur favorable market conditions se faida uthana mumkin hai.

Tayari mein yeh bhi shamil hona chahiye ke munasib stop-loss orders lagayein, wazeh profit targets define karein, aur real-time market developments ke mutabiq apni strategies adjust karne ke liye tayyar rahain. Market trends se ba-khabar rehna aur evolving market conditions ke mutabiq apne plans ko adjust karna intehai ahem hai. Mein buy entry ka mashwara doonga, aur bulls apna target resistance level se upar set kar sakte hain. Professional trading tools ka istemal kar ke USD/JPY market ko dekhte rahein aur tajziya karein.

Aap sab ke liye nek khwahishat!

JPY Analysis
Is waqt daily chart mein price ek naya concept dikhati hai. Maqsad yeh hai ke ek naya selling scenario create kiya jaye. Magar abhi bhi Japanese currency buyers ke pressure mein hai. Phir bhi, USD/JPY abhi 8 haftay pehle ke muqable mein ek higher high par hai. Is liye hum umeed rakhte hain ke aage chal kar ek bearish scenario saamne aasakta hai.

Weekly chart mein buyers ki value abhi bhi barh rahi hai. Is ke ilawa, US dollar bhi is waqt stable hai. Is naye market scenario ke madde nazar, iss haftay USD/JPY ke sellers ke liye sirf kuch hi moqay honge. Aane walay waqt mein market bullish reh sakti hai aur weekly chart mein bullish candle ko fill kar sakti hai.




Agar hum safe trading karna chahte hain, toh humein USD/JPY ko sirf daily chart ke high aur low levels se trade karna chahiye. USD/JPY ki price poori tarah technical chart ko follow nahi karti, is liye mein mashwara doonga ke iss pair par trading se parheiz kiya jaye. Is wajah se, aaj kal is pair par trading bohot risky hai. Lekin stock ki price ko correct hona zaroori hai takay yeh mazeed barh sake. USD/JPY market is haftay ya aglay haftay kisi bhi waqt tezi se gir sakti hai.

Hum iss waqt 142.25 par sell order place kar sakte hain. Aaj ke trading session mein prices 141.70 ke support ko test kar rahi hain. Aane walay chand ghanton mein dekhtay hain ke kya hota hai. Mein aapko future endeavors ke liye best of luck kehna chahunga. Jab tak resistance level 142.75 par barqarar hai aur MA100 breakout nahi kar pati, yaani agar 144.30 ka resistance level apni jagah bana rehta hai, toh USD/JPY ke price mein qareebi waqt mein mazeed girawat aasakti hai. Aapko aik acha din aur aik shandar hafta mubarak ho!

Friday ke European session mein, pair ko apni recovery banane mein mushkilat ka samna karna pada, jab ke yeh 141.80 ke intraday support level ke neeche pressure mein raha. Pair market ke band hone tak 142.30 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha, jo global uncertainties ke dauran is pair ki mazbooti ko dikhata hai.
BoJ Tightening Ne Yen Ko Mazid Barhaya, USD Rate Cut Ki Aasariyat Ke Bawajood:

Aik half-yearly peaks se spot price ka recent retreat, jo trades ke ahista ahista unwind hone ki wajah se tha, USD ke muqablay mein mazid mazboot hone se balance ho gaya. Iski wajah BoJ ke mazid monetary tightening ki umeed thi. Central bank ne short-term rate target ko 0.15%-0.25% tak barhane ka faisla kiya aur 2026 ke aaghaz se har mahine JGB purchases ko ¥3 trillion tak kam karne ka ilan kiya, jo is jazbaat ko foran barhane mein madadgar tha.



Pair mein mazid gains ki umeed US Dollar ko darpesh challenges ki wajah se rok sakti hai, jo ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke major interest rate cut ki speculation se barh rahi hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, September mein 50-basis point rate cut ki chances 74.5% tak barh gayi hai, jo sirf aik hafta pehle 11.4% thi.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis:

Iske nateejay mein, yeh pair aik range mein fluctuate karne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 141.60 aur 148.00 ke darmiyan ho sakta hai. Jab hum ne pehle kaha tha ke USD mazid kamzor ho sakta hai, toh humein ye nahi pata tha ke kitna zyada gir sakta hai. Support levels ko 141.20 aur 141.00 par dekha gaya. USD 141.66 tak gira lekin phir recover ho kar 144.17 par close hua, jo ke 1.62% ki girawat thi. Downward momentum ab dheemi hoti nazar aa rahi hai, is liye USD ke outlined range mein trade karne ka imkaan hai.

Doosri taraf, agar sellers exchange rate ko 141.37 ke low se neeche le jaane mein kamiyab ho gaye, toh is se mazid pullback ho sakta hai. Agla support level 140.00 par hoga, aur mazid support 139.00 par dekha jaa sakta hai. Agar downward trend barh gayi, toh rate 138.61 ke low tak pohanch sakti hai.

USD/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast
Yeh currency pair ab downward trend ke mutabiq move kar raha hai agar hum halat-e-haazira ko dekhein. Pichli movement ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein andaza laga raha hoon ke price lower limit ko touch karne ki koshish kar rahi hai aur agar is ka breakout ho gaya to yeh aur neeche jaane ki koshish karegi. Test ke dauran, mein market mein entry ka mouqa dhoondhunga jab price rebound karegi northern direction mein. Agar koi small frame se buying ka pattern samne aaye to uska bhi khayal rakha jayega. Lekin zyadatar mujhe lagta hai ke is hafte regulator ne intervene kiya jab price, koi wazeh wajah ke baghair, neeche gir gayi jab buyers ne heavy EMA 120 ke upar ka level secure kar liya tha. Is hafte mein ghaur se dekhoonga ke price narrowing formation mein kaise behave kar rahi hai, aur week ke aakhir tak movement ke nateejay mein kya priorities samne aati hain. Ab tak, direction dono taraf ho sakti hai, lekin preference ab bhi south side ki taraf hai. Mein weekly chart par dollar yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyer ne profit fix karna shuru kiya, to pair girne laga. Yeh bohot tezi se gir raha tha, aur phir 141.508 tak aa gaya. Choti timeframes, jaise ke daily chart par, mein yeh samajh raha tha ke yeh buyers ke stops ko hit kar raha hai.




Buyers Tuesday ke trading session mein apni dominance barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahe jab price apne daily open level 146.90 ke upar move ki. Woh sirf 147.22 tak le jaane mein kamiyab hue. Us area se price ne direction reverse ki aur bohot lambi kamzori ka samna kiya. Is seller pressure ne EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 mein downward cross banaya jo ke negative price flow ka ishara tha. Kal ke taqatwar sellers ne price ko sirf EMA 200 H1 tak le jaane mein nahi, balki usay penetrate karne mein bhi kamiyabi hasil ki. Magar 145.16 se pullback ne price ko wapas upar move karaya lekin yeh zyada door tak nahi ja saka, EMA 12 H1 ne buyers ki push ko rok diya aur price phir se gir gayi. USDJPY market aakhir kar lower close hui at 145.47. Wednesday ke trading session mein, USDJPY market 145.47 par open hui. EMA 200 H1 thodi upar thi, yani 145.66 par. Asian session ke dauran price almost consolidate karti rahi aur daily open ke neeche thi. Dheere dheere European session ke kareeb, price neeche move hui aur apne qareebi support 144.82 tak ruk gayi. Yeh area ab tak penetrate nahi hui, lekin H1 trend ke liye ab downward trend hai jahan price EMA 200 H1 ke neeche move kar rahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 bhi ab tak wahi behavior dikhate hain, jo neeche jaane ka ishara de raha hai. Filhal price daily open aur qareebi support ke darmiyan hai.

Juma ke late European session tak, spot price trading range ke andar fluctuate kar raha hai, aur ab bhi crucial 144.00 level ke neeche hai. Pair ko mushkilat ka samna hai Federal Reserve ke expected dovish approach ki wajah se, jo interest rates mein koi significant barhawa nahi dekh raha. Is wajah se US Dollar ki attractiveness kam hui hai. Saath hi, Japanese Yen mazboot ho gaya hai, jo Bank of Japan ki unexpectedly strong policy tightening ka natija hai.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Yeh pair Middle East mein barhti hui geopolitical tensions se faida utha sakta hai. Sunday ko Israeli airstrike ne do schools ko nishana banaya jahan kam az kam 30 log halaak hue, Reuters ke mutabiq. Mazeed, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken ne alert kiya hai ke Iran aur Hezbollah Monday tak Israel par hamla kar sakte hain, jese ke Axios ki report mein bataya gaya hai.




In barhti hui geopolitical tensions se Japanese Yen aur mazid mazboot ho sakta hai. Blinken ne G7 counterparts ko bataya hai ke conflict ka risk zyada ho gaya hai, jo safe-haven assets, jaise ke JPY, ki demand ko barha sakta hai. Yeh geopolitical uncertainty USD/JPY dynamics ko aur complex bana rahi hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ko 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 145.17 par resistance ka samna ho sakta hai. Agar yeh level break ho gaya to bearish sentiment kam ho sakta hai aur pair "throwback support turned resistance" 150.00 tak test kar sakta hai, uske baad 50-day EMA 151.28 tak dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar USD/JPY 142.00 se neeche girta raha, to agla support level 141.42 par hoga aur key psychological mark 140.00 tak girne ka imkaan hai.

Filhal, pair downward trend dikhata hai lekin 142.00 mark ke aas-paas support mil chuka hai. Is girawat ke baad, buyers market mein wapas aaye hain, jisse exchange rate upar gaya, jaise ke mid-North American session mein dekha gaya. Is recovery ne spot prices ko 143.50 ke upar le ja kar ye signal diya hai ke downtrend ab apna course complete kar raha hai, jo Relative Strength Index (RSI) se bhi zahir hota hai.

Japon ki currency ne sirf Jumme ko khud ko majboot kiya. Yen is hafte dollar ke muqablay mein 2.3% barh gaya hai. Japon ki gharanay ke kharchon ka asar umeed se kam hai. Japon ki ma’ashi halat mein sudhar ke nishan hain, lekin consumers itna asha masroof nahi hain aur apni jebon ko mazbooti se pakray hue hain.
Gharanay ke kharchon mein July mein 0.1% ka izafa hua, jo ke June ke 1.4% ke kami se sudharti hai magar market ke andazay 1.2% se kam hai. July mein mahine-ba-mahine gharanay ke kharchon mein 1.7% ki kami hui, jo ke chhe mahine mein sabse zyada kami hai.

Yeh June ke 0.1% ke izafe ke baad aaya aur market ke andazay -0.2% se kafi kam tha. US non-farm payrolls bazaar ko hilaa sakti hain aur Fed ke tapering ke qeemat ka faisla kar sakti hain. Aaj ke non-farm payrolls report ka intezar kafi zyada tha. Kya hum July ke 114,000 naye naukriyon ke baad sudhaar dekh sakte hain jo global financial markets ko hila diya tha? Bazaar zyada tar crash se recover ho chuke hain, lekin investors ab bhi pur-sukoon nahi hain aur agar ek aur poor non-farm payrolls report aati hai to bazaar ko zyada girawat ka saamna karna par sakta hai.

August ke liye market ka andaza 160,000 hai. Jobless claims gir gayi hain, lekin JOLT jobs umeed se kam hain.

August ka ADP employment report sirf 99K par gir gaya, jo ke July mein 111K se revise ho kar aur market ke andazay 145K se kafi kam hai. ADP report aam tor par non-farm payrolls ke liye reliable nahi hoti, lekin is saal iska taluq kafi mazboot raha hai.

Agar nonfarm payrolls ka report umeed ke mutabiq ya usse behtar aata hai, to Federal Reserve apne Sept. 18 meeting mein 25-point hike ka faisla kar sakti hai. Waqt ke sath, agar report kamzor hoti hai, to 50 bps ke excessive cut ke umeed barh sakti hai. CME FedWatch ke mutabiq, markets filhal 50 bps par 43% aur 25 bps par 67% hain, lekin main umeed karta hoon ke din ke aakhir tak yeh rates tabdeel ho sakti hain.

USD/JPY Currency Pair Analysis
Fundamental Overview

US dollar aur Japanese yen ka currency pair recent sessions mein kafi zyada volatile raha hai, jo zyada tar ahem economic data releases aur broader market trends ki wajah se hai. Aakhri US Nonfarm Payrolls report ne kafi zyada fluctuations paida kiye, jisme pair 230 pips ke range mein swing hua. Data ke baad pair neeche gir gaya, magar sellers ne price action par control banaaye rakha. USD/JPY ki girawat ka ek sabab US 10-year Treasury yield ka girna bhi tha, jo USD/JPY par additional downward pressure daal raha tha. Greenback ki dusri badi currencies ke muqablay mein strength ke bawajood, Yen ki mazbooti ne USD ke against aur izafa rok diya. Yeh ek complex fundamental backdrop create karta hai jahan economic sentiment aur data releases pair ko mukhtalif directions mein push kar rahe hain.




Technical Overview

Technical side par, USD/JPY ka mixed picture hai jahan bullishness ke nishan nazar aa rahe hain. 4-hour chart par ek significant Hammer candlestick ban rahi hai, jo reversal ya notable upward move ka signal de sakti hai agar yeh pattern session ke end tak intact rahe. Triangular Moving Average channel aur Zigzag indicator ke mutabiq, pair upar ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo buying opportunities ko indicate karta hai. Laguerre aur RSI oscillators bhi bullish activity ko favor kar rahe hain. RSI yeh bhi indicate karta hai ke market oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo aksar price rebound ka precursor hota hai. Agar upward momentum barqarar raha, to pair Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 152.350 tak target kar sakta hai. Lekin traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur positions enter karne se pehle further confirmation ka intezar karna chahiye. Toh, jab ke technical indicators USD/JPY ke liye ek bullish run ka hint de rahe hain, economic reports aur market sentiment par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Technical signals buying ko favor karte hain, magar fundamental drivers bhi pair ke future direction ko shape karne mein aham role ada karte hain.