سی ایل/خام تیل کی قیمتیں اور تجزیہ

CL Crude Oil (West Texas Intermediate – WTI) ka analysis agar hum May 2025 ke latest market data ke mutabiq karein to is waqt yeh commodity takreeban $79.50–$80.00 per barrel ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai. Is price movement ke peechay kai macroeconomic aur geopolitical factors hain, jinhon ne market sentiment ko direct influence kiya hai. Is analysis ko hum technical aur fundamental dono pehluon se samajhne ki koshish karte hain, taake trading decision logical aur data-driven ho.

Crude Oil ne April ke dauraan aik significant bullish rally dikhayi thi jab yeh $81 ke aas-paas gaya tha, lekin phir US ke strategic reserves ke release aur global demand concerns ki wajah se isne correction lena shuru kiya. Ab yeh correction ke baad $78–$80 ke beech aik consolidation zone mein hai.

Fundamentally dekha jaye to US ne apni strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) ko refill karne ki baat ki thi, lekin abhi tak full-scale buying start nahi hui, jiski wajah se speculative demand weak rahi. Dusri taraf China ka industrial production data mixed raha hai kuch segments mein recovery dikhayi di hai lekin overall demand pressure mein hai, jo Oil demand ke liye bearish signal hai. OPEC+ ki taraf se production cuts abhi bhi apply ho rahe hain, lekin Russia ne kuch overproduction ki reports di hain jo overall supply ke hawale se bearish signal deti hain.

Ab agar hum technical analysis karein to daily chart pe CL Crude Oil ne ek double top pattern form kiya hai near $81.20, jo ke bearish reversal ka indication deta hai. Price ab apni 50-day EMA ke neeche consolidate kar raha hai. RSI indicator lagbhag 47–49 ke range mein hai jo neutral momentum dikhata hai, lekin overbought bhi nahi hai. MACD histogram thoda negative mein hai, jo bearish pressure ko support karta hai.

Support aur resistance levels ki agar baat karein to:

• Strong support: abhi $78.00, phir $76.50, aur major support $74.20 ke aas-paas hai. Agar price $78 ka level todta hai, to fast selling dekhne ko mil sakti hai jo price ko $76 ya usse neeche $74.20 tak le ja sakti hai.
• Immediate resistance: $80.60 hai, jahan se price ne recent turn liya. Uske baad resistance levels $81.20 (double top area) aur $83.00 hain. Jab tak price $81.20 ke upar breakout nahi deta, upside limited rahegi.

Forecast ki agar baat ki jaye to short-term mein CL Crude Oil sideways ya slightly bearish bias ke sath trade kar sakta hai jab tak koi major fundamental trigger nahi aata. Lekin agar US ya China se koi positive economic indicator aata hai ya Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barhti hain to yeh pair wapas bullish momentum le sakta hai. Medium-term mein agar Oil $78 ka support hold kar leta hai to wapas $81–$83 tak ka bounce de sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh support break hota hai to $76.50 tak ka drop possible hai.

Traders ke liye strategy yeh honi chahiye ke agar price $78 par strong bullish rejection candle banata hai, to long position lena theek rahega target $80.60 aur $81.20 tak rakhein. Stop loss $77.20 ke neeche hona chahiye. Agar price $80.60 ke resistance se reject hota hai to wahan se short lena safe ho sakta hai target $78 aur $76.50 ho sakta hai, with SL $81.30 par.

Crude Oil ka market highly news-sensitive hai. Is liye geopolitical updates (khaaskar Middle East, OPEC+, aur Russia se related) aur economic data (US inventories, China imports, etc.) ka closely observation karna zaroori hai. Weekly inventories report aur OPEC ka monthly bulletin critical honge agle kuch hafton mein trend determine karne ke liye.

Oil markets par dabao jari hai kyun ke geopolitical tensions aur kharab hoti demand sentiment par bhari asar daal rahi hai. Brent crude, jo abhi $60 ke qareeb mandra raha hai, downside risk ka samna kar raha hai, aur analysts khabardar kar rahe hain ke agar supply be-lagaam barhti hai to yeh $55 ki taraf wapas ja sakta hai.



Key Points:

• Oil ki qeematain dabao mein hain kyun ke geopolitical tensions aur kamzor demand Brent crude ko $55 per barrel ki taraf dhakel sakte hain.
• Saudi Arabia ka supply cuts se hatna aur June mein OPEC+ hike ki tawaqo energy markets mein bearish sentiment ko gehra karti hai.
• U.S. maashi contraction ne Kpler ko 2025 ke global oil demand growth forecast ko 800K se ghatakar 640K barrels per day karne par majboor kiya.

Saudi Arabia ka output cuts se doori aur June mein tawaqo shuda OPEC+ production hike bearish momentum mein izafa karte hain. Is dauraan, U.S. maashi contraction aur sust global demand ne Kpler ko apna 2025 oil demand growth forecast 800,000 se ghatakar 640,000 barrels per day karne par majboor kiya hai.



WTI Oil Price Forecast

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WTI crude apne pivot point $58.44 se thik neechay baitha hai, tezi se girne ke baad, aur ab $57.77 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Qeemat trendline support ko test kar rahi hai aur is level ko dobara hasil karne ke liye jaddo jehad kar rahi hai, jo short term mein bearish sign hai. Immediate resistance $59.43 par hai, agla hurdle $60.38 par. Neechay ki taraf, $57.00 agla key support hai, us ke baad $55.99.


50 EMA abhi $61.21 par hai, jabke 200 EMA $64.11 par hai—dono current levels se kaafi oopar, jo broader bearish trend ki tasdeeq karte hain. Haal ka breakdown yeh batata hai ke momentum ab bhi sellers ke sath hai.


Jab tak oil is trendline ke oopar qaim nahi rehta, sab se kam resistance ka rasta neechay ki taraf reh sakta hai. Traders ko chahiye ke woh $57.00 se sharp bounce ya $55.00 ki taraf mazeed kamzori par nazar rakhen taake agle move ki tasdeeq ho sake.


Brent Oil Price Forecast

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Brent crude $61.24 ke pivot level se neechay girne ke baad key support $60.16 ko test kar raha hai. Downtrend ab bhi qaim hai, qeemat 50 EMA $64.30 aur 200 EMA $67.46 se bohat neechay trade kar rahi hai. Dono averages neechay ki taraf slope kar rahe hain, jo broad bearish sentiment ki tasdeeq karte hain. Immediate resistance ab $61.24 par hai, us ke baad $62.96. Neechay ki taraf, $58.57 aur $57.11 agle supports hain jo dekhne hain.


Rising trendline aur horizontal support ke zariye haal ka breakdown ne bulls ko peechay dhakel diya hai. Jab tak UKOIL jaldi $61.24 ko dobara hasil nahi karta, $58 range ki taraf jari drift ka imkan hai.


Abhi ke liye, sellers control mein nazar aate hain, aur koi bhi bounce ko mazboot volume aur follow-through ki zaroorat hogi taake yeh tabdeel ho. $60 ke qareeb price ka rawayya par nazar rakhen—yeh agle directional move ke liye key battle zone hai.


Natural Gas Price Forecast

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Natural gas $3.39 ke qareeb mustaqil hai, pichle haftay falling wedge se breakout ke baad. Qeemat short-term rising trendline ka ehtram kar rahi hai aur haal hi mein 50 EMA $3.32 ko clear kiya, jo ab immediate support ka kaam karta hai. Key resistance $3.459 par hai, us ke baad $3.570. Neechay ki taraf, agar uptrend kamzor parta hai to $3.294 aur $3.174 par nazar rakhen.


200 EMA $3.66 par oopar ek lambay muddat ka hurdle hai. Abhi ke liye, setup bulls ko favor karta hai, khusoosan agar qeemat $3.459 ke oopar volume ke sath close secure kar sakti hai. MACD momentum positive ho gaya hai, jo nayi buying interest ka ishara deta hai.


Structure dheere dheere bearish se neutral-to-bullish ki taraf shift ho rahi hai—yeh traders ko haftay mein jate hue note karna chahiye. $3.30 tak pullback ek mumkin re-entry offer kar sakta hai, lekin sirf tab jab trendline support qaim rahe.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Low Demand aur Saudi Arabia k Policies ki Waja Se WTI $58.00 se Neeche Chala Gaya

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), US crude oil ka benchmark, Thursday ke Asian trading hours ke dauraan $57.80 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. WTI ki qeemat global maashi downturn ke khadshat aur Saudi Arabia ke low oil prices ko qaim rakhne ke isharaat ke baad November 2021 ke baad apne sab se buri mahana girawat ke baad defensive rehti hai.



Key Points:

• WTI ki qeemat Thursday ke Asian session mein $57.80 tak neechay jati hai.
• Saudi Arabia apni maashi pakar ko qaim rakhne ke liye oil production barhane ke strategic iqdamat le raha hai.
• US mein crude oil stockpiles pichle haftay 2.696 million barrels gir gaye, Energy Information Administration (EIA) ke mutabiq.

WTI ki qeemat Reuters ke report ke baad mazeed girawat barha rahi hai, jis mein bataya gaya ke Saudi Arabia additional production cuts par ghor karne ke bajaye low prices ko qabool karne ko tayyar hai. “Tareekh dikhati hai ke jab OPEC+ leadership supply pressure ke zariye compliance ko encourage karne ka faisla karti hai, to woh apne maqsad ke hasil hone tak nahi rukti,” Bob McNally, president aur founder Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC, ne kaha.

Kamzor U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data bhi WTI ke downside mein hissa daalta hai. Bureau of Economic Analysis ne Budh ke din zahir kiya ke US maishat 2025 ki pehli sitamber (Q1) mein 0.3% saalana dar se contract hui. Yeh report tajweez deti hai ke tariffs maashi taraqqi par dabao daal rahe hain.

Crude inventories mein ghair-mutawaqa kami zyada oil demand ka ishara deti hai, jo WTI ki qeemat ko support kar sakti hai. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ki haftawar report ne dikhaya ke 25 April ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye US mein crude oil stockpiles 2.696 million barrels gir gaye, jabke pichle haftay 244,000 barrels ka izafa hua tha. Market consensus ne andaza lagaya tha ke stocks 600,000 barrels giren ge.

U.S. Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure ke Andar Rebound



U.S. Dollar Index ka daily chart dikhata hai ke index ne ek key area of support se rebound kiya hai aur 100 ke oopar push karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Yeh rebound overall bearish outlook ko tabdeel nahi karta, kyun ke trend ab bhi negative hai. Haalaanki, market ko stabilize karne ke liye yeh rebound zaroori hai. Bearish trend ko radd karne ke liye 105 ke oopar break zaroori hai.

U.S. Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Inverted Head and Shoulders



U.S. Dollar Index ka 4-hour chart dikhata hai ke index ek descending channel ke andar trade kar raha hai. Is ne ek inverted head-and-shoulders pattern bhi banaya hai. Yeh pattern ek descending broadening wedge ke support par ubhra hai. Yeh tajweez deta hai ke index in levels se rebound kar sakta hai. Immediate resistance levels 101.40 aur 102.90 par qaim hain.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) ki qeematain teesre lagatar din ke liye girti rahi, aur WTI ab $60 per barrel se neechay trade kar raha hai. Brent crude is mahine mein qareeban 15% gir gaya, jo record par sab se buri mahana performance ki taraf ja raha hai. Yeh girawat barhte tariff risks, kamzor sentiment, aur OPEC+ ke output cuts ko naram karne ki tawaqo ko zahir karti hai.


WTI Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure



WTI crude oil ka daily chart ishara deta hai ke qeemat $65 area tak rebound karne ke baad jari gir rahi hai. Yeh level ek lambay muddat ka resistance hai, aur is ke baad ki girawat oil market mein mustaqil bearish pressure ko zahir karti hai. Oil prices President Trump ke naye tariffs ke elaan se dabao mein hain. $55 se rebound oversold market conditions ke wajah se tha, lekin ab woh bounce oversold setup ko neutralise kar chuka hai. Qeematain girti rahi hain aur agle kuch dinon mein mazeed neechay jane ka imkan hai.



WTI Crude Oil (CL) ki qeematain teesre lagatar din ke liye girti rahi, aur WTI ab $60 per barrel se neechay trade kar raha hai. Brent crude is mahine mein qareeban 15% gir gaya, jo record par sab se buri mahana performance ki taraf ja raha hai. Yeh girawat barhte tariff risks, kamzor sentiment, aur OPEC+ ke output cuts ko naram karne ki tawaqo ko zahir karti hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Bullish Kicking Pattern

WTI crude oil (CL) ki qeematain $65 se neechay consolidate kar rahi hain kyun ke US-China trade war ke khadshaat market sentiment par bhaari asar daal rahe hain. Investors ko dar hai ke duniya ki do sab se bari maeeshaton ke darmiyan jari tanaza global fuel demand ko kaafi kam kar sakta hai. Haaliya data dikhata hai ke agar tensions barh jati hain to oil demand growth forecasts 500,000 barrels per day tak gir sakti hain. Nateeje mein, kharidar hoshiyar hain aur WTI crude oil mein upside movement ko mehdood rakhte hain.



Key Points:

• WTI Crude Oil (CL) $66–$67 resistance zone se neechay consolidate karta hai, bearish price action dikhata hua.
• Natural Gas (NG) $3 ke key support level se rebound karta hai aur upside movement ke liye tayyar nazar aata hai.
• US Dollar Index (DXY) oversold levels par consolidate kar raha hai aur apni agla direction talash kar raha hai.

OPEC+ ka plan hai ke doosre mosalsal mahinay ke liye oil output barhaya jaye, jo bearish pressure mein izafa kare ga. June se shuru hote hue, supply mein 400,000 se 500,000 barrels per day ka izafa mutawaqa hai. Yeh supply ka yeh izafa aise waqt par aa raha hai jab demand outlook ghair yaqeeni hai. Is ke ilawa, US-Iran nuclear deal par taraqqi se ek aur 1 million barrels per day market mein aane ka imkaan hai.

Kamzor US Dollar ke bawajood jo commodity prices ko support karta hai, oil ko kharidar nahi mil rahe. WTI pehle hi apne haaliya high $64.70 se gir chuka hai, aur market is baat ka ishara deta hai ke agar bearish momentum jari raha to $61.00 support area se neechay breakdown ka khatra hai. Key economic data oil market ko mazeed mutasir kare ga. China ke PMI readings aur US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) global maeeshati sehat ke liye taaza signals faraham karen ge. Kamzor numbers maeeshati slowdown ke khadshaat ko mazboot karen ge aur WTI ko $55 ke level se neechay dhakel sakte hain.

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Pivotal Zone



WTI crude oil ka daily chart ishara deta hai ke qeemat bearish pressure ke tehat hai, kyun ke yeh $67 ke upar torne mein nakaam raha hai. $66–$67 ka price band lambi muddat ka pivotal area hai, jahan is range ke upar na torne ki soorat mein oil prices mein mazeed kami ka ishara mil sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, RSI oversold conditions se rebound kar ke mid-level ke qareeb aa raha hai, jo yeh batata hai ke qeemat yahan resistance ka samna kar sakti hai aur girawat jari rakh sakti hai.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge


WTI crude oil ka 4-hour chart descending broadening wedge pattern ke andar mazboot volatility dikhata hai. Haalaanke, wedge support se rebound black dotted trendline ke upar torne mein nakaam raha. Is trendline ke neechay jari consolidation se qeemat mein mazeed kami ka imkan barh jata hai.

US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure



US Dollar Index ka daily chart dikhata hai ke yeh 100 level ke neechay consolidate kar raha hai aur ab tak isay torne mein nakaam raha hai. Market US Core PCE inflation aur NFP data ka intezar kar raha hai taake mazeed direction haasil ho. Haalaanke, US Dollar ka trend mazbooti se bearish hai, aur index ke neechay girne ka imkan zyada hai.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel



US Dollar Index ka 4-hour chart dikhata hai ke index ek descending channel ke andar trade kar raha hai aur bearish pressure ke tehat hai. Mazboot resistance levels 101.40 aur 102.90 par hain, aur in levels ke upar na torne ki soorat mein index mazeed neechay jana jari rakhe ga.

CL/CRUDE

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2025 mein Crude Oil yaani CL ke Forex market mein movements kaafi dynamic aur unpredictable rehne wale hain. Duniya bhar mein economic halat, geopolitics, aur energy policies ka asar oil prices par seedha padta hai. Jab hum Forex market ki baat karte hain, to oil ek ahem commodity hai jo major currencies jaise USD, CAD, aur RUB ko directly influence karti hai.

2025 ke shuruat mein expectations hain ke oil prices kaafi volatile rahenge. Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan ongoing tensions, Middle East mein instability, aur OPEC+ countries ke production decisions market ko har waqt nayi direction dein ge. Oil traders ko ye samajhna hoga ke geopolitical events kisi bhi waqt supply chain ko disturb kar sakte hain, jiska seedha asar Forex rates par padta hai.

Iss saal demand side bhi kaafi interesting hogi. China, jo duniya ka sabse bara oil importer hai, apni economy ko post-pandemic recovery phase ke baad aur zyada strengthen karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar Chinese economy expected growth achieve kar leti hai, to oil demand mein zabardast surge dekhne ko milega. Saath hi, India aur baaki emerging markets bhi apni energy needs ko expand kar rahe hain. Ye sab factors milkar oil prices ko bullish bana sakte hain.

Dusri taraf, renewable energy ka trend bhi oil prices ko pressure mein laa sakta hai. 2025 mein kaafi saari governments, especially Europe aur America mein, carbon emissions reduce karne ke aggressive targets set kar chuki hongi. Agar EV (electric vehicle) adoption rate tezi se badhta hai aur green energy projects zyada successful hote hain, to oil ki long-term demand mein decline aa sakta hai, jiska negative asar prices par padega.

Forex market mein agar hum USD ka role dekhein to historically jab oil prices barhte hain to USD weaken karta hai, kyunki America ek net oil importer country hai. Lekin recent saalon mein US ne apni shale oil production badhakar khudko kaafi had tak energy independent banaliya hai. Is wajah se USD ka aur oil prices ka relationship thoda complex ho gaya hai. 2025 mein agar US apni production ko aur zyada expand karta hai, to global supply increase hoga jiska bearish impact oil prices par aasakta hai.

Saath hi, CAD (Canadian Dollar) aur NOK (Norwegian Krone) jaise currencies bhi oil prices ke saath direct correlation rakhti hain. Agar crude oil prices barhte hain to CAD aur NOK ko support milta hai. Iss lihaaz se 2025 mein oil ki volatility ka asar Forex pairs jaise USD/CAD aur EUR/NOK par bhi barah-e-raast nazar aayega. Investors ko in pairs mein trading karte waqt oil market ki news aur developments ka close monitoring karna zaroori hoga.

Interest rates ka angle bhi bhoolna nahi chahiye. Agar 2025 mein inflation high rehta hai to major central banks jaise Federal Reserve aur ECB apne interest rates high rakh sakte hain. Higher interest rates ka general impact hota hai ke commodities jaise oil pe pressure padta hai, kyunki stronger dollar commodities ko comparatively expensive banata hai. Lekin agar economic slowdown hota hai aur demand kam hoti hai, to oil prices ko double pressure face karna padega.

OPEC+ ka role bhi decisive hoga. Agar OPEC+ countries apni supply cuts ko continue karti hain to oil prices ko support milega. Lekin agar kisi wajah se production quotas tod diye jaate hain, ya Saudi Arabia aur Russia apas mein agreements violate karte hain, to oil market mein sharp decline aasakta hai. Aisi situations mein Forex traders ko sudden spikes aur drops ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye.

2025 mein technological factors bhi important rahenge. Artificial Intelligence aur Big Data ka use karte hue trading algorithms aur hedge funds oil prices ke movements ko predict karne aur exploit karne ki koshish karenge. Yeh automated trading systems market volatility ko aur badha sakte hain, jiski wajah se Forex traders ke liye risk management aur bhi crucial ban jayega.

Global recession ka threat bhi 2025 mein looming hoga. Agar major economies jaise America, Europe aur China economic slowdown face karte hain, to oil demand mein sharp contraction ho sakta hai. Aisi situation mein oil prices me crash dekhne ko mil sakta hai aur safe haven currencies jaise USD aur JPY strengthen kar sakte hain. Forex traders ko risk-off aur risk-on sentiments ke beech constantly switching ki tayyari karni padegi.

Summary yeh hai ke 2025 mein crude oil market aur Forex market dono hi highly interconnected aur volatile rahenge. Har trader ko chhoti si news ya political development ka impact samajhna hoga aur apni trading strategies accordingly adjust karni hongi. Jo log market ke pulse ko samajh lenge woh profit kama sakenge, jab ke jo ignore karenge unhe losses ka samna karna padega.

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Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Prices Supply Mein Izafa Hone k Bahis Bearish Ja Sakti Hai

Crude oil markets ne is hafta sharp nuqsanat dekhe, traders ko supply-driven rukawaton aur mustaqil geopolitical ghair yaqeeni ke sath joojhna para. Brent ne neechay khatam kiya, jabke WTI gir gaya, kyun ke mumkin nayi supply ka wazan aur naazuk global demand ki ummeedon ne kharidaron ko hoshiyar rakha.



Key Points:

• US-Iran nuclear talks mein taraqqi ne Iranian crude ke wapas aane ke khauf ko barhaya, jo oil ke bearish outlook ko mazeed gehra kar raha hai.
• OPEC+ mein tensions barh rahi hain kyun ke Saudi Arabia tezi se production barhane par zor de raha hai, jo group ke ittehad mein daraarein dikha raha hai.
• IMF ne US ke growth forecast ko 1.8% tak kam kiya aur recession ke imkanat ko 40% tak barhaya, jo oil demand par mazeed dabao daal raha hai.

Agar price is level ke upar mustaqil tor par barhti hai, to yeh kharidaron ki mojoodgi ka ishara hoga. Agar yeh kaafi upside momentum banata hai, to 52-week moving average tak ek qareebi surge ki ummeed karen jo $69.00 par hai. Yeh lambi muddat ke trend ko control kar raha hai jo neechay hai.

Agar traders market ko $63.06 se neechay qatai tor par dhakel dete hain, to $59.67 tak pullback aur phir kai mahino ke low $54.48 par nazar rakhen.

Iran Nuclear Talks Supply Ke Khauf Ko Barha Rahe Hain

Hafta ke shuru mein selling pressure tab ziyada hua jab US-Iran nuclear negotiations mein “bohat acha progress” ki khabrein aayin. Iranian crude ke global market mein wapas aane ke imkaan ne aitmaad ko hila diya, halanke US ne isi doran ek Chinese refiner par Iranian oil handle karne ke liye sanctions lagaye. Traders ne jaldi se mustaqbil ke barrels ko price mein shamil karna shuru kiya, haalaanke koi finalized agreement nahi hua, jis ne pehle se sensitive market mein prices par mazeed dabao dala.



Inventory Data Demand Par Mixed Signals Bhej Raha Hai

US stockpile data ne confusion mein izafa kiya. API ne 4.6 million barrel crude draw ki bari report di, jo shuru mein bullish bets ko support karti thi. Lekin official EIA figures ne is ke khilaaf ek surprise crude build dikhaya jo 244,000 barrels ka tha. Gasoline (-4.5 million barrels) aur distillates (-2.4 million barrels) mein mazboot draws ne end-user demand ke mustahkam hone ka ishara diya, jet fuel deliveries 2019 ke baad sab se tezi par pohanchi. Phir bhi, crude build supply ke baray khadshaat ko mazboot karne ke liye kaafi tha.

Maeeshati Dabao Demand Outlook Ko Kharab Kar Raha Hai

Baray maeeshati khadshaat ne bearish tone ko mazeed gehra kiya. International Monetary Fund ne apna US growth forecast 2025 ke liye 1.8% tak kam kiya aur inflation ki ummeedon ko 3% tak barhaya, jo mustaqil tight monetary policy ke case ko mazboot karta hai. Recession ke imkanat ko 40% tak barhaya gaya, jo mustaqbil ke oil demand par saaya daal raha hai aur commodity markets mein risk appetite ko kam rakhta hai.

OPEC+ Mein Daraarein Gehari Jab Output Talks Tez Hoti Hain

OPEC+ ka ikhtilaf ne ek aur bearish layer joda. Jabke group ne May mein 411,000 barrels per day output barhane ka plan banaya hai, khabrein aayin ke kuch members, Saudi Arabia ki qayadat mein, tezi se izafay ke liye dabao daal rahe hain. Androoni tensions—khusoosan Kazakhstan aur Iraq ke quotas se tajawuz karne—OPEC+ ki supply cap karne ki salahiyat par shuk paida karte hain, jo agar daraarein barh gayin to supply surplus narrative ko tezi de sakta hai.

Trade War Tensions Demand Ki Umeedon Ko Rok Rahi Hain

US-China tariff talks par thori si optimism jaldi khatam ho gayi jab China ke foreign ministry ne kisi bhi active negotiations se inkaar kiya. Haalaanke Beijing ke selective tariff exemptions ke bawajood, bhari duties ab bhi sakhti se nafiz hain, jo China ke oil demand growth outlook ko rok rahi hain. Rystad Energy ne apna Chinese demand growth forecast sirf 90,000 barrels per day tak kam kar diya—jo global consumption trends ke liye ek bara red flag hai.

Crude Oil Market Forecast: Bearish Outlook Jari Hai

Qareebi muddat ke oil prices ka forecast bearish hai, barhti hui supply risks, uljhan bhare inventory signals, aur mustaqil maeeshati rukawaton ke sath demand recovery ko nuqsan pohanchega.

Traders ko OPEC+ policy shifts, US-Iran nuclear developments, aur US-China trade headlines par qareebi nazar rakhni chahiye taake supply-demand ke dobara tawazun ke kisi bhi isharay ko dekha ja sake. Jab tak koi wazeh bullish catalyst nahi milta, sellers agle sessions mein control mein rahenge.

Pechle kuch weeks se weak economic outlook aur market mein risk lene ki kam appetite ke sath, is ka nataija duniya bhar ke oil prices par sakht manfi asar ke tor par samne aaya hai.



Pechle week hi mein sab se bura 6-din ka performance:

• WTI crude oil ne teen saal se zyada ke sab se bura 6-din ka performance dekha, lekin ab is ne support paya hai aur is maheene ke shuruati lows se takreeban 15% upar trade kar raha hai.

• Fi al-hall, WTI $63.65 per barrel ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Rally ko barhane ke liye isay $66.07 ke qareeb mazboot resistance ko torne ki zarurat hogi.

• Iran ke energy exports par taaza US sanctions global supply par kuch sawalat utha sakte hain, kyun ke nuclear negotiations mein koi taaza taraqqi nahi hui.

Saal ke shuru mein hasil kiye gaye gains kho chuka:


Global trade ke mustaqbil aur oversupply ke khauf ne oil ke liye museebat khari ki, jo 9 April ko $55.23 per barrel (WTI) ke multi-year lows tak gir gaya.


Is ke baad thori si market optimism ke sath support milne ke baad, WTI ko apne gains ko barhane ke liye $66.07 ke resistance ko torne ki zarurat hai.


WTI: Trump, “Liberation Day” Aur US-China Tensions



Oil ka istemal industry, manufacturing, aur general economic khushhali se gehra jura hai. Haal hi mein tariffs ke elanaat aur trade mein rukawat ne oil markets par poora asar dikhaya.


2 April ko, jise “Liberation Day” ke tor par bhi jana jata hai, reciprocal tariffs ke elaan ke baad, global trade ke mustaqbil par ghair-yaqeeni aur trade wars ke imkaan ne WTI prices ko tailspin mein bhej diya, jo 2021 ke baad sab se neechay dekhe gaye lows tak pohanch gaya.


Is ke baad se 90 din ke liye reciprocal tariffs par pause ka samjhota hua, jis se WTI pricing ko mustahkam hone ka moqa mila. Umeed hai ke Trump aur unki administration key trading partners, jaise European Union aur China ke sath dostana trade agreements kar sake gi.


China na sirf is waqt US ke zyadatar imports par 145% levy ka samna kar raha hai, balke duniya ka doosra sab se bara oil consumer bhi hai, is liye US-China trade agreements mein koi bhi taraqqi WTI ke mustaqbil ke liye bilkul ahem hai.


Is waqt White House ne kuch isharay diye hain ke is silsile mein taraqqi ho rahi hai, lekin waqt hi bataye ga ke is samjhote ki sharaait kya ho sakti hain.


WTI pricing ke liye, trade tariffs mein mazeed izafay ya trade relations ke badtar hone ka koi bhi ishara short-term mein oil pricing par manfi asar daal sakta hai, jabke agar US apne key trading partners ke sath agreements kar le to is ka ult asar hoga.


WTI: OPEC Tensions



Oil manufacturing ke nafa mein kami ke sath tensions ziyada hain, aur OPEC ki haaliya policy, jo production mein izafay ka ehed karti hai, is par kuch member parties ki taraf se tanqeed ho rahi hai.


Sab se ziyada, yeh Kazakhstan ki taraf se samne aaya, jis ne haal hi mein “national interest” ko OPEC+ ke mutalbat se ziyada tarjeeh dene ka wada kiya. Pichle saal duniya mein oil production mein 12th rank par hone ke bawajood, Kazakhstan pehla nahi jo production quotas se tajawuz kar raha hai, kyun ke non-compliance ek barhta masla hai.


Budh ke session mein US oil inventories ke girne ke baad, markets ab apna tawajju 5 May ko hone wali OPEC ki agli meeting par mabzool kar rahe hain.


WTI: Iran Ke Energy Exports Par United States Ke Sanctions



Iran ke energy exports ko nishana banane wali sanctions ki taaza tajdeed ke sath, Middle East mein oil supply par asar ke hawale se kuch sawalat paida ho rahe hain.


Pehle jab Iran ne US ke mutalbat ke mutabiq apne nuclear program ko mehdood kiya tha, to sanctions mein relief diya gaya tha. Haaliya sanctions ka daira ab Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) tak barh gaya hai, jo Iranian maeeshat ka ek ahem export hai.


Jab tak muzakirat jari hain, markets hoshiyar rahen gi. Supply mein kisi bhi rukawat ka ishara WTI pricing par musbat asar daal sakta hai.


WTI: Technical Analysis Aur Outlook

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Budh ke session mein price 21-day daily EMA ke upar nahi toor saki, is liye WTI ka short-term outlook bearish hai. Fi al-hall consolidation ke daur mein trade kar raha hai, agar price ~$62.51 ke level se neeche toot jati hai, to mazeed downside moves ki ummeed ki ja sakti hai.


Jab daily timeframe par ADX ka istemal kiya jata hai, to trend strength mein kami dekhne ko mil rahi hai, lekin yeh ab bhi ek “strong trend” hai. Sab kuch barabar hone ki soorat mein, yeh ishara deta hai ke mojooda bearish trend short-term mein jari rahe ga.

April 2025 ke aakhri haftay mein, WTI Crude Oil (CL) ki market mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mili hai. Hal filhal mein, CL ki prices ne $63.02 ke aas-paas trade kiya, jahan se is week ka high $63.80 aur low $62.20 dekha gaya . Ye price action is baat ka saboot hai ke market ab ek consolidation phase mein hai, jahan traders next directional move ka intizaar kar rahe hain.
Technical analysis ke mutabiq, CL ki prices ne 50-day, 100-day, aur 200-day moving averages ke aas-paas trade kiya hai, jo ke long-term trend ke liye neutral signal hai. RSI indicator 57.27 par hai, jo ke neutral momentum ka ishara deta hai . Agar price $63.20 ke resistance level ko convincingly breach karta hai, to agla target $65.00 aur phir $67.00 ho sakta hai. Conversely, agar price $61.50 ke support level se neeche girta hai, to $60.00 tak correction possible hai .

Fundamentally, CL ki prices par pressure daalne wale factors mein U.S. aur China ke darmiyan trade tensions, OPEC+ ki production policies, aur global economic indicators shamil hain. Hal filhal mein, OPEC+ ne apne production quotas mein 411,000 barrels per day ka izafa announce kiya hai, jo ke supply glut ka sabab ban sakta hai . Iske alawa, International Energy Agency (IEA) ne 2025 ke liye oil demand growth forecast ko 730,000 barrels per day tak revise kiya hai, jo ke pehle ke estimate se kam hai .
Short-term forecast ke mutabiq, agar CL ki prices $63.20 ke resistance level ko convincingly breach karti hain, to agla target $65.00 aur phir $67.00 ho sakta hai. Agar price $61.50 ke support level se neeche girta hai, to $60.00 tak correction possible hai. Medium-term outlook mein, CL ki prices largely OPEC+ ki production policies aur global economic data par depend karegi. Agar OPEC+ apne production cuts ko implement karta hai aur global economic indicators positive rehte hain, to prices mein stability aa sakti hai. Lekin, agar supply glut aur economic slowdown continue karte hain, to prices par downward pressure barh sakta hai.
Long-term mein, CL ki prices ka outlook cautious hai. Agar global economic conditions improve hoti hain aur demand barhti hai, to prices mein recovery possible hai. Lekin, agar current bearish trends continue karte hain, to prices aur neeche ja sakti hain. Analysts ka kehna hai ke agar ye trends continue karte hain, to CL ki prices $55 per barrel tak gir sakti hain .
Traders ko chahiye ke wo key support ($61.50, $60.00) aur resistance ($63.20, $65.00, $67.00) levels ko closely monitor karein, aur upcoming economic data releases aur OPEC+ ki announcements par bhi nazar rakhein. Risk management ke liye stop-loss orders ka istemal karein aur position sizing ko manage karein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Oil OPEC+ Supply Afwaahon Pe Haftawar Loss Mein Chali Gaye

Crude oil ki qeematain hafta ek aur nuqsaan ke saath khatam karne wali hain, ek report ke mutabiq ke OPEC+ shayad June mein pehle se plan kiya gaya se zyada bara output boost pe ghor kar raha hai. Ukraine mein aman ke liye nayi umeed ne traders ke darmiyan bearish mood ko barhawa diya.



Key Points:

• Oil ki qeematain hafta mein girawat ke saath khatam hone ki umeed hai, kyun ke OPEC+ shayad output barhaye aur Ukraine ki situation mein positive developments hain.
• OPEC+ zyada barrels production mein shamil karne pe ghor kar raha hai, khas tor pe jab kuch members jaise Kazakhstan output reduction commitments poore karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahe hain.

• Geopolitical factors, jisme US-Russia talks pe potential progress aur Iran ka nuclear negotiations ke liye khula hona shamil hai, oil market ke bearish trend ko mutasir kar rahe hain.

Benchmarks is waqt dono upar the, Brent crude $66.98 per barrel aur West Texas Intermediate $63.21 per barrel pe. Haftawar trend downward hai lekin yeh ek halki girawat hogi.

Is hafta ke shuru mein, Reuters ne report kiya ke OPEC+ June ke meeting ke baad zyada barrels production mein shamil kar sakta hai taake quota laggards ko line mein laya jaye, baad mein bade members Iraq aur Kazakhstan se compensatory cuts ke commitments hasil karne ki nakaam koshish ke. Report ne unnamed sources ka hawala diya jo group ke is topic pe talks se waqif the.



Kazakhstan OPEC+ ke liye khas tor pe pareshani ka sabab raha hai, us ke energy minister ne haal mein kaha ke hukoomat independent operators ko output kam karne pe majboor nahi kar sakti aur state-managed fields pe output cut karne ka koi irada nahi kyun ke is se future production mutasir hogi, Reuters ne apni report mein bhi note kiya.

“Kazakhstan ka bayan hamare view ko mazboot karta hai ke OPEC+ shayad May meeting mein ek aur accelerated three-month unwind implement karega aur yeh July aur summer tak jari reh sakta hai,” Energy Aspects ki Amrita Sen ne is bayan ke baad kaha.

Oil ki qeematain ke liye doosri bearish khabar mein, Russia ke Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov ne CBS ko bataya ke Moscow aur Washington Ukraine ke hawale se sahi direction mein ja rahe hain, keh kar ke “Hum deal tak pohanchne ke liye tayyar hain, lekin ab bhi kuch specific points - is deal ke elements hain jinhe fine-tune karne ki zaroorat hai.”

Is dauraan, Iran ke Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi ne is hafta kaha ke woh Iran ke nuclear program pe European powers ke saath negotiations ke liye Europe safar karne ko tayyar hain, yeh ishara dete hue ke Tehran rishte behtar karna chahta hai, jo shayad kisi point pe US sanctions ke uthne ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis



Technically, market daily chart pe ek key pivot $63.02 pe straddling kar raha hai. Is ke upar sustained move buyers ki mojoodgi ka ishara dega, jisme 50-day moving average $66.20 major target hai. Pivot ke neeche sustained move minor 50% level $59.67 pe acceleration trigger kar sakta hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Rally ko Resistance ka Samna, Downside Risks Nazar Aa Rahe Hain

Crude oil ne Budh ke high $65.32 tak $55.23 ke recent trend low se $10.08 ya 18.3% ka rally mukammal kiya. Is ke baad, sellers ne din ke baaqi hisse mein control le liya, jisse ek bearish engulfing pattern bana. Yeh risk barhata hai ke crude oil is hafta ke high ko dobara challenge karne se pehle mazeed kamzor ho sakta hai. Mangal ko shuruati tezi ko 20-Day MA, jo ab $64.48 par hai, ke aaspaas resistance ka samna hua. Is ke ilawa, ek purana long-term support zone, jo ab potential resistance hai, bhi successfully test hua. Yeh range $65.40 se $65.98 tak hai.



Bearish Inside Day Banta Hai

Aaj, Thursday, crude oil ne consolidation ki, ek inside day banaya jiska high $63.73 aur low $62.40 tha. Din se kuch kamzori ke isharay milte hain. Note karen ke din ka range Budh ke range ke lower half mein hai, aur is waqt, crude oil Budh ke range ke halfway point se neeche trade kar raha hai aur aisa lagta hai ke yeh relatively bearish position mein close hoga. Is ke ilawa, din ka high May 2023 ke ek significant price level (dashed horizontal) par resistance ka samna karta hai. Yeh crude oil ka sab se neechay traded price tha jab tak recent sharp fall nahi hua.

$61.94 ke Neeche Girawat ke Signals

Aaj ke low se neeche girawat agla kamzori ka ishara degi, jabke Budh ke low $61.94 ke neeche girawat ek gehri bearish retracement ka signal hai. Note karen ke recent price action ke bottom par ek chhoti si rising trend line bhi hai. Yeh line pehle hi toot jayegi agar Budh ka low trigger hota hai. Agar girawat trigger hoti hai, to do key support areas par nazar rakhni hogi. Pehla recent interim swing low $60.40 aur 50% retracement $60.27 par hai. Phir, neeche ek range $59.08 se $58.86 tak hai, jo 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur purane daily support se define hoti hai.

Haftawar Close Weak Nazar Aa Raha Hai

Hafta ka ek din baqi hai aur crude oil doosra consecutive higher weekly high aur higher weekly low set karne ke liye tayyar hai. Yeh short-term strength dikhata hai. Lekin is hafta ke high ke baad bearish price action crude oil ko period ke liye neeche khatam hone aur pichle hafta ke high $64.72 se neeche rehne ki position mein rakhta hai. Is wajah se, weekly time frame par upside breakout confirm nahi hoga.