جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

### Technical Analysis aur Market Dynamics

Technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke aagey bhi price increase ho sakti hai. Is context mein, price action yeh darshata hai ke buyers yaani "longs" 1.3395 level ke aas-paas active rahne ki sambhavna hai. Yeh level traders ke liye ek ahm point ban gaya hai jo aage price increase ki umeed rakhte hain. Lekin, market dynamics yeh bhi suggest karte hain ke temporary rollback ya pullback ho sakta hai is se pehle ke trend apne upward movement ko jaari rakhe.

### Upward Engulfing Pattern ko Samajhna

Upward engulfing pattern tab banta hai jab ek choti bearish candlestick ke baad ek badi bullish candlestick aati hai, jo poori tarah se pichle din ki price action ko "engulf" karti hai. Is pattern ko aksar reversal signal ke tor par dekha jata hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke downward trend apni taqat kho raha hai aur buyers market par control hasil kar rahe hain. GBP/USD ke case mein, upward engulfing pattern yeh darshata hai ke traders mein pound ke dollar ke muqablay mein majboot hone ki umeed badh rahi hai.

1.3395 level ahm hai kyunki yeh un traders ke liye ek aisi jagah hai jahan continued buying interest ki umeed hai. GBP/USD mein long positions rakhne wale traders is level ko kholne ya apni positions add karne ke liye akarshak samajhte hain, kyunki engulfing pattern yeh suggest karta hai ke price yahan se badh sakti hai. Lekin, broader market conditions aur kisi bhi potential resistance levels ko bhi madde nazar rakhna zaroori hai jo upward momentum ko rok sakti hain.

### Pullback ki Sambhavna

Bhalay bullish signal maujood ho, kuch signs hain ke price ki upward move se pehle ek pullback ho sakta hai. Short sellers yaani "shorts" 1.3310 level ke aas-paas profits lena shuru kar sakte hain, jo un logon ke liye ek interest point ho sakta hai jo currency pair mein temporary decline ki umeed rakhte hain. Yeh pullback market ko consolidation ka ek mauka de sakta hai, jo aage ki strength banane ke liye zaroori hai.

Rollback 1.3340 ya 1.3370 tak bhi ho sakta hai, jahan short sellers price ki upward momentum ko short term mein sustain karne ki kami ka faida uthana chahenge. Yeh levels support aur resistance ke areas ke tor par kaam karte hain, jahan price volatility badh sakti hai jab traders apne varying positions se market ko influence karne ki koshish karte hain.

### Key Factors jo dekhna hain

Kuch fundamental factors GBP/USD pair ki future direction par asar daal sakte hain. UK aur US se aane wale economic data yeh tay karne mein critical role play karenge ke pound dollar ke muqablay mein apni strength ko kitna maintain kar sakta hai. Misal ke tor par, agar UK ka GDP growth, employment figures, ya inflation data stronger-than-expected hota hai, to yeh pound ke liye additional support faraham kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar UK mein economic weakness ke signs hain, to traders long positions rakhne mein zyada cautious ho sakte hain.

Iske ilawa, US dollar ke hawale se developments bhi is pair ko asar daalenge. Dollar ne rising interest rate expectations aur global economic stability se faida uthaya hai. Agar Federal Reserve zyada aggressive monetary tightening ki soch rakhta hai, to dollar majboot ho sakta hai, jo GBP/USD ke upward movement ko challenging bana sakta hai.

Market sentiment aur geopolitical factors bhi is pair ki performance ko asar daalenge. Achanak hone wale political developments, khaaskar Brexit ya US-UK trade relations ke hawale se, volatility introduce kar sakte hain, jo price action mein rapid changes ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Analysis likhte waqt, yeh pair 183.55 ke level par stable hai. Main aksar apne reliable trading recommendations page par mid-July trading mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein ma

policymaker ne kaha ke July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat aur recent global market ki volatility Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Reliable currency trading platforms ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai. Jaise hi yen ki depreciation theek hui hai, import prices se high inflation ka risk kam ho gaya hai.” Lekin, sirf global volatility hi Japanese interest rate hikes ko kam mumkin nahi banati, Uchida ne yeh bhi zikr kiya ke yen ki recovery bhi inflation ke risk ko kam kar rahi hai. Event aur uske asraat par comment karte hue, Elias Haddad, senior global markets analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, ne kaha: “Bank of Japan ab damage control mein masroof hai. Apni hawkish policies par badhte hue tanqeed ke saath, BOJ ab aane wale 12 mahino mein sirf 15 basis points ki rate hike ka imkaan de raha hai, jabke pehle yeh 50 basis points expecte

GBP/JPY pair ne Shunichi Uchida ke kehne par 2% se zyada ka izafa kiya, jab unhone Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level par cross kar chuka hai. Halankeh Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya dikhata hai ke uptrend momentum GBP/JPY pair ki price increase rally ko support kar raha hai, magar ek downward correction phase ki zarurat hai taake agla price movement aur barh sake.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai

Hakodate mein local leaders ko bataya ke recent global market ki volatility aur July mein yen ki bepanah badhavat Bank of Japan ko interest rates phir se barhane se rokh sakti hai. Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne apne taqreer mein kaha: "Japan ki economy aisi nahi hai ke bank ko interest rates barhane ki zarurat ho agar yeh ek certain pace par nahi barhate. Is liye, bank financial aur capital markets unstable hone par interest rates nahi barhaye ga." Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko dusri baar interest rates barhaye aur kaha ke agar inflation aur economic growth aane wale mahino mein unki umeedon ke mutabiq hui to wo phir se barha sakte hain. Yeh efforts aur 11 July ko hui official intervention ke asraat ke saath, aur global markets mein risk aversion ke badhte huye carry trade ka reversal ho gaya jo pehle yen par bohot bhari pada tha. Forex trading ke mutabiq... GBP/JPY ne July mein apne peak se trough tak 13% se zyada girawat dekhi jab yen-funded carry trade unwind hua aur market ne Bank of Japan se is saal ke baad additional rate hikes ki pricing ki. Magar, yen ki recent rise ke sath global markets mein mounting losses dekhi gayi, jahan Nikkei index ne is hafte ke Monday ko ek din mein 10% se zyada girawat dekhi. Uchida ne kaha: “Financial aur capital markets ne US dollar ki tezi se kamzori aur stock prices ka global decline dekha hai, jo US economy ke slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se hai GBP/JPY pair ke price movement ka direction ziada tar barhne ka imkaan hai. Magar, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle niche correct ho kyun ke chalti hui rally kaafi impulsive hai. Kam az kam price niche correct ho ke RBS area ke qareeb aa sakta hai, jo ke 187.38 ke aas paas hai aur EMA 50 ke sath confluent hai. Agar downward correction EMA 50 ke neeche ho jata hai, toh price SMA 200 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke ek dynamic support ya phir low prices ka level 185.80 hai. Iske ilawa, jo upward rally ne 189.38 ke high prices ko touch kiya tha, usne ek minor higher high - higher low structure banaya hai. Ye isliye ke price ne structure tab break kiya jab price ne high prices 186.70 ko cross kiya aur phir 188.07 tak barhta raha. Agar hum dekhein ke price jo ke abhi niche gir raha hai, wo 183.74 ke low prices tak pohanch kar ruk gaya hai aur 183.69 ke neeche ek naya lower low nahi bana saka. Yani, yeh kaha ja sakta hai ke price ka downward correction sirf ek higher low pattern banane tak limited ho sakta hai. Yeh baat Stochastic indicator ke parameters se bhi supported hai jo overbought zone 90 - 80 ke level par cross kar chuka hai. Halankeh Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka nazariya dikhata hai ke uptrend momentum GBP/JPY pair ki price increase rally ko support kar raha hai, magar ek downward correction phase ki zarurat hai taake agla price movement aur barh sake.

JPY ne haal hi mein kafi utar chadhav dekha hai, jo ke aham economic events ka nateeja hai. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori haClick image for larger version

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par hai, jo qareeb 191.63 par positioned hai. EMA ek ahem technical indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of

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GBPUSD Price Action Analysis
Hello dosto, shab bakhair! Aaj hum GBPUSD currency pair ki price action ka jaiza lenge. Ab tak, humne dekha hai ke price ne shuru mein upar ki taraf rukh kiya, jo ke nearest resistance area tak pohanch gaya. Lekin, aaj ki price action ne phir se bearish movement ki taraf rukh kiya hai. Meri observation ke mutabiq, price ka girna aage bhi jaari rehne ka imkaan hai jab tak yeh nearest support area tak nahi pohanchta.

H4 (chaar ghante) time frame par, hum dekh sakte hain ke dopahar ke aas-paas price movement phir se bearish ho gaya aur yeh EMA (Exponential Moving Average) line ki taraf badh raha hai. Jaise ke hum jaante hain, agar candlestick movement EMA line ke upar ho, toh yeh buyers ke liye ek positive signal hota hai.

Lekin, yeh samajhna bhi zaroori hai ke bullish trend mein bhi kuch aise mauqe ho sakte hain jahan price mushkilat ka samna karti hai ya resistance face karti hai. Agar GBPUSD currency pair 1.331xx ke aas-paas correction support level ko todta hai, toh yeh further downside movement ka signal ho sakta hai. Humein double top pattern par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye. Agar 1.331xx support level tooti, toh yeh sell signal banega aur price ko agle support area 1.324xx tak le ja sakta hai. Isliye, aaj position lene se pehle ek zyada accurate signal ka intezar karna behtar hoga.

Dusri taraf, agar price upar ki taraf badhkar 1.342xx ke aas-paas resistance area ko todta hai, toh yeh buy opportunity ka signal banega. Filhal, price nearest support aur resistance levels ke darmiyan fluctuate kar rahi hai, isliye position lene mein jaldi nahi karni chahiye. Agar 1.331xx support toot jata hai, toh yeh ek clear sell signal hai. Aur agar 1.342xx resistance tooti, toh yeh buy signal ki taraf ishara karega.

Akhir mein, aaj sabr karna bahut zaroori hai. Kisi bhi action lene se pehle support ya resistance levels ka confirm break hone ka intezar karna behtar hai. GBPUSD pair filhal ek critical zone mein hai, aur traders ko apne agle moves mein cautious rehna chahiye. 1.331xx support ke neeche ka break bearish trend ka signal hai, jabke 1.342xx resistance ke upar ka break bullish position ke liye mauqe khol sakta hai.

GBP/JPY Ka Jaiza
GBP/JPY pair ne 2024 ke sabse neechey level se ek noticeable upward move kiya hai jab ek ahem policymaker ne ishara diya ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) shayad aane wale dino mein interest rates ko mazeed barhane se rok sake, kyun ke July mein yen ki tezi se girawat aur recent global markets ki volatility ne halat ko mushkil bana diya hai. Reliable currency trading platforms ke mutabiq, Shunichi Uchida ke comments ke baad GBP/JPY pair mein 2% se zyada ka surge dekhne ko mila. Uchida ne Hakodate mein baat karte hue kaha ke in market conditions ki wajah se BoJ ko mazeed rate hikes se rokna par sakta hai. Unho ne yeh bhi wazeh kiya ke Japan ki economy abhi us level par nahi hai jahan central bank ko rates barhane ki zarurat ho, jab tak economy ek certain pace par grow na kare. Agar financial aur capital markets unstable rehte hain, toh BoJ rate barhane se katra sakti hai.

Bank of Japan ne 31 July ko doosri dafa interest rates barhaye, jisme future hikes ka imkaan diya gaya tha agar inflation aur economic growth unki expectations ke mutabiq agey chalte hain. Is action ke sath, 11 July ko ek official intervention aur global markets mein risk aversion ne carry trade ko reverse karne mein madad ki, jo ke pehle yen par bohat pressure daal rahi thi. Carry trade ek strategy hai jisme investors yen borrow karte hain aur un paison ko un assets mein invest karte hain jahan zyada return mile.

Forex trading mein, GBP/JPY pair ko July ke peak se le kar 13% se zyada decline ka samna karna para, jo ke yen-funded carry trades ke unwinding ke wajah se tha. Market mein expectations thi ke BoJ apni policy stance ko change kar sakta hai aur inflation aur economic conditions ko dekhte hue mazeed rate hikes ka plan bana sakta hai. Magar Uchida ke recent comments se lagta hai ke abhi ke liye itne aggressive tightening measures ka imkaan kam hai, jo yen ke liye thodi rahat aur baqi currencies, including British pound, ke against us ki recovery ka sabab ban rahi hai.




Haalan ke yen ki girawat mein short-term relief dekhne ko mila hai, lekin market mein ab bhi uncertainty hai. Investors BoJ ke future policy decisions ko closely monitor karenge, khaaskar agar inflation mazeed barhta hai ya economic growth expectations se tez hoti hai. Global market dynamics aur BoJ ka ehtiyaat se rate hikes karne ka approach, yen ke future trajectory aur GBP/JPY exchange rate par asar daalenge.

Kholasa
Aakhri taur par, GBP/JPY mein recent surge market ki reaction ko reflect karta hai ke BoJ shayad rate hikes ko temporarily pause kar deyen amid heightened volatility aur yen ki depreciation ke doran. Jabke yen ne thodi recovery ki hai, outlook abhi bhi cautious hai, aur future movements ka daromadar BoJ ke policy actions aur global market conditions par hoga.

Trading Chart On GBP/JPY H4
Mahine ke aakhir mein ziada volatility trading instruments mein aa rahi hai, jo retail traders ke liye zyada ehtiyaat ka taluq barhati hai, jo bade players aur institutions ke actions ko follow karte hain. Significant profit-taking ki wajah se market prices par khaasa asar par sakta hai. Yeh update GBPJPY aur EURGBP currency pairs par focus karta hai, jo ke British Pound se linked hain. GBPJPY ka price rally 193.21 resistance level ko paar kar chuka hai, aur lagta hai ke price ab Fibonacci Retracement (FR) levels 127.2 - 196.10 ki taraf ja raha hai, jahan se ek downward correction phase aa sakta hai. Iski wajah yeh hai ke pehle jo reversal signals aaye the, woh price ko neeche layne mein nakam rahe. Bank of Japan ka benchmark rate ko kisi waazeh limit ke bagair barqarar rakhne ka faisla Japanese Yen ke liye negative outlook banata hai, jo price ko FR 50 - 188.57 ya FR 61.8 - 189.72 tak neeche le ja sakta tha, kyun ke us waqt overall trend bearish tha.



GBP/JPY ka current price rally 193.21 resistance level ko cross kar gaya hai. Ab ziada chances hain ke price FR 127.2 - 196.10 ki taraf jaye, aur phir ek downward correction ka phase aaye. Kyun ke pichlay kuch reversal signals price ko neeche layne mein kamiyab nahi ho sake. Bank of Japan ke faislay ka asar, jisme benchmark rate ko kisi limit ke baghair rakha gaya, Japanese Yen ko kamzor kar raha hai. Jab price FR 50 - 188.57 ya FR 61.8 - 189.72 tak pohncha, us waqt trend ab bhi bearish tha, lekin ab EMA 50 aur SMA 200 ke perfect cross hone ke baad, bullish trend ziada price ko barhane ki projection de raha hai.

Dusri taraf, price pattern ka structure bhi tabdeel ho gaya hai jab 193.21 resistance level cross ho gaya. Price ne 193.45 ke high levels pe structure break kar diya, jo ke lower low - lower high ka structure invalidate kar raha hai. Agar downward correction phase aata hai, to price ka ek higher low pattern banne ka imkaan hai, jo EMA 50 ya FR 78.6 - 191.36 ke qareeb ho sakta hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ke perspective se lagta hai ke histogram volume GBP/JPY pair ke price volume ke saath hum ahang nahi hai. Halankeh yeh uptrend momentum dikhata hai, lekin ek bearish divergence signal ka bhi ishara hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters overbought zone mein level 90 - 80 pe hain, jo ke buying saturation point ke kareeb honay ka pata de rahe hain.

GBP/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko girawat dekhi, jisme British pound par selling pressure ke bawajood daily highs 159.35 ke qareeb se retreat kiya. U.S. dollar ki taqat, jo Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke hawkish stance ke baad aayi, aur GBP ke loss ka koi wazeh buniyadi wajah ka na hona is girawat ka sabab bana. UK mein rate-cutting cycle ki slow raftaar jo ke U.S. aur Eurozone se mukhtalif ho sakti hai, is se GBP/JPY ki downside ko kuch had tak rok sakti hai, magar Japanese yen ka mahal bhi aham hai. Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ka interest rate hikes par ehtiyaati rawaiya aur aanewale general elections ne safe-haven Japanese yen ko kamzor banaya, jo GBP/JPY ke liye madadgar sabit ho rahi hai. UK ka final manufacturing PMI jo ke thoda sa better revise hua tha lekin phir bhi 50 ke niche raha, pair par zyada asar nahi daal saka. Magar, overall fundamental halat ye darshata hai ke kisi bhi significant downtrend ke khilaf GBP/JPY par long positions lene se pehle ehtiyaat ki zarurat hai.



Technical Perspective se:

Price ka multiple dafa 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ke upar na ja sakna, aur daily chart par "death cross" ka banna, yeh sab bearish pressure ki nishani hai. Aggressive bullish traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Global economic outlook, jisme trade tensions, geopolitical risks aur central bank policies shamil hain, yeh sab currency markets ko bara asar daalti hain. Investor risk appetite mein tabdeeli bhi GBP/JPY pair ko asar andaz kar sakti hai. Jab risk aversion ka mahal hota hai, to investors safe-haven currencies jese ke Japanese yen ki taraf rujhan karte hain, jo GBP/JPY par downward pressure dal sakta hai.

Buniyadi factors ke ilawa, technical analysis bhi market trends aur price movements ko samajhne mein madadgar sabit hoti hai. Traders aksar technical indicators ka use karte hain, jaise ke moving averages, support aur resistance levels, aur chart patterns, takay trading opportunities ko pehchan sakein. GBP/JPY pair kaafi volatile rehti hai, jisme economic factors, market sentiment aur technical indicators ka aik mizaj hota hai. Short-term outlook thoda challenging lag sakta hai, lekin traders ko broader economic landscape aur technical signals ko dekh kar trading opportunities ko samajhna chahiye aur risk ko effectively manage karna chahiye.

GBP/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
GBP/JPY ke H4 time frame chart par, agar hum qareebi nazar daalein to qeemat ke harkaat mein ek khaas pattern nazar aata hai jahan bullish aur bearish trends ka silsila agle chand hafton mein barabar chalta raha hai. Yeh pair kaafi volatility ka shikar raha hai, jahan qeemat upar aur neeche kafi wide trading range mein hilti rahi hai. Yeh back-and-forth price action traders ke liye na sirf moka deta hai, balki kuch challenges bhi paida karta hai, kyunke market bullish rallies aur bearish corrections ke darmiyan hilta julta rehta hai.

Pichle chand hafton mein, GBP/JPY pair ka trend kaafi zyada tabdeeli ka shikar raha, aur yeh ek wide range mein move karta raha hai jahan traders ne dono, upar aur neeche, dono directions mein faida uthaya. Jab bullish phase aya, to pair 185.00 tak barh gaya tha, jo ke British Pound ki mazbooti ke sabab tha, jisme positive economic data aur Bank of England ke mazeed tightening ke expectations ka kaarfarma hona bhi shaamil tha. Sath hi sath, Japanese Yen ki kamzori, jo ke Bank of Japan ki accommodative monetary policy ka nateeja thi, ne bhi is bullish momentum ko support kiya.

Lekin, yeh bullish progress aksar bearish corrections ke zariye rok di gayi. Bearish phases zyada tar global risk-off sentiment ke sabab shuru hue, jahan investors Japanese Yen jese safe assets mein invest karte hain jab geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawale se concerns barh jati hain. In corrections ne pair ko 182.00-183.00 ke range tak neeche khencha, jahan se phir is ne support hasil ki aur apni bullish raftar dobara shuru ki.



Agar hum technical analysis par focus karen, to kuch key levels saamne aaye hain jinka traders ko khayal rakhna chahiye. Upar ki taraf, resistance 185.00 ke aas paas dekhi gayi hai, jo ke ek psychological level hai aur chand hafton mein kai dafa test kiya gaya hai. Agar yeh resistance break hoti hai, to mazid bullish momentum ke aagaaz ka signal ho sakta hai, aur agla target 187.00 ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, support 182.00 ke qareeb dekha gaya hai, jahan bearish corrections ke dauran pair consistently buyers ko attract karta raha hai. Agar yeh support level break hota hai, to yeh mazeed decline ka rasta khol sakta hai, jisme agla target 180.00 ho sakta hai.

Is range mein move kartay hue, traders ko tayar rehna chahiye ke volatility barqarar rahegi. Long aur short dono positions profitable ho sakti hain, lekin key support aur resistance levels par dhyan dena zaroori hoga. Sahi stop-loss orders lagana aur risk management ka khayal rakhna traders ke liye zaroori hoga, taake GBP/JPY market ke fluctuations ko sahi tarah handle kiya ja sake. GBP/JPY pair mein pichle chand hafton se alternating bullish aur bearish trends nazar aaye hain, jahan wide range mein price movements ho rahi hain. Iss scenario mein buyers aur sellers dono ke liye opportunities maujood hain, lekin volatility ke sabab traders ko apni entry aur exits mein ehtiyaat karni hogi. Key technical levels ko monitor karna aur fundamental influences se waqif rehna profitable trades karne ke liye essential hoga.

Weekly open par price action 191.01 ke qareeb resistance level par tha, jahan EMA 633 bhi H1 timeframe par iss area ko cross kar raha tha. Asian session ke dauran, price daily open aur 191.01 ke qareeb resistance ke darmiyan fluctuate karti rahi, lekin buyers ko yeh level break karne mein mushkil hui. Yeh resistance EMA 200 ke qareeb H1 chart par closely aligned tha. Jab buyers yeh level cross nahi kar sake, to price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gayi. Yeh thori der ke liye daily open aur EMA 633 ko H1 timeframe par cross karke neeche chali gayi, magar 189.30 ke area ke qareeb support mil gaya aur wapas upar bounce ki. Ab price dobara 191.01 resistance level ko retest kar rahi hai. EMA 200 H1 ke qareeb hone ke bawajood, trend ab tak unclear hai. H1 par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 downward slope dikhate hain, jo ke ek negative trend ka ishara hai, aur yeh trend pichle Jumme se chala aa raha hai.
Jumma ke session mein ek extreme reversal dekha gaya jab price ne rally karne ki koshish ki lekin 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad kamzor ho gayi. Phir price tezi se neeche gir gayi, H1 timeframe par EMA 200 aur EMA 633 ko cross karte hue. Yeh bearish momentum Monday ke trading session tak qaim raha, jahan sellers dominate karte rahe. Abhi ke liye, price ki position H1 chart par EMA 200 ke qareeb hai, jo trend mein uncertainty paida kar rahi hai. Agar buyers is area par ek strong bullish candle banane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to yeh ek bullish breakout ka potential signal de sakti hai.

Jumma ke significant weakness ne market par khaas asar dala, jab price EMA 200 ke upar daily timeframe par move karne ke baad 196.01 resistance level par reject ho gayi. Phir price 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily level ke neeche gir gayi. High aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halankeh price EMA 200 ke neeche daily chart par hai, trend ab tak bearish hai. Daily chart par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 dono EMA 200 ke neeche flat ho chuke hain, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid reinforce kar rahe hain.

Agar price pichle Jumme ke low ko break karti hai, to yeh confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily level ke neeche reh rahi hai, jo ke mazeed girawat ka signal de sakti hai, aur price 187.68 daily support level tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar buyers 190.18 ke upar price ko qaim rakhne mein kamyab hote hain, to price ko EMA 200 daily level ki taraf push karne ka chance hai aur 192.84 area ko test kiya ja sakta hai, jo mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khol sakta hai.

Abhi ke liye, price EMA 200 daily level ko test kar rahi hai, aur buyers pressure dal rahe hain. Yeh dekhna baqi hai ke unki koshishain kaamyab hoti hain ya nahi, jo renewed buying opportunities ka sabab ban sakti hain. Sath hi, daily stochastic downward point kar raha hai, jo ke current trend ko aur complex bana raha hai.

"Have a nice day, aur sab forum members ko profitable trading ki dua deta hoon! Main aaj apna trading ka tajurba aap logon ke saath share karna chahta hoon. Pehle to main apne chart par ek indicator lagata hoon jo ke Heikin Ashi candles ke zariye pair ki movement ko dikhata hai. Iska fayda yeh hai ke yeh market noise ko filter karke clear signal deta hai. Heikin Ashi candles ka ek khaas tareeqa hota hai jisse price bars ko bana kar price chart ka delay kam ho jata hai.
Dusra indicator jo main use karta hoon woh TMA (Triangular Moving Average) hai, jo chart par support aur resistance lines draw karta hai. Yeh lines double smoothed moving averages ke zariye banti hain aur current channel boundaries dikhati hain jisme instrument chal raha hota hai. Aakhri indicator jo main transactions ko filter karne ke liye use karta hoon woh RSI oscillator hai, jo standard settings ke saath lagata hoon. Yeh Heikin Ashi ke saath mil kar positive trading results ko achieve karne mein madad karta hai. Chart ka analysis karne ke baad, main dekhta hoon ke candles ka rang blue ho gaya hai, jo is baat ka indication hai ke buyers is waqt sellers se zyada strong hain aur price ko upar ki taraf le ja rahe hain. Price ne channel ki neeche wali boundary ko cross kiya (red dotted line) aur apne minimum point se bounce hoke wapas middle line ki taraf (yellow dotted line) chal pada. Is information se mujhe lagta hai ke is waqt pair ko buy karna profitable hoga.
Hourly chart par linear regression channel ka direction M15 chart ke saath milta julta hai, jo ke bullish interest ko barhata hai. Dono channels ke readings ke mutabiq, priority purchases ko di gayi hai. Abhi sales ke liye koi conditions nahi bani hain. Agar M15 channel neeche ki taraf dekhega to phir sales ka soch sakte hain, lekin jaisa ke aap images mein dekh rahe hain, dono channels upar ki taraf hain, jo buyers ko strong bana rahe hain. Buyers market ko push kar rahe hain, is liye theek yeh hoga ke channel ke neeche wali boundary 189.960 se buy kiya jaye, kyun ke yeh ek profitable entry point hai. Is point ke neeche sales shuru hongi aur purchases out ho sakti hain. Main growth ka plan kar raha hoon upper part of channel 191.813 tak. Jab market top hit karega, toh bull apna kaam pura karega, jiske baad ek decline aa sakta hai, lekin main is decline ko miss kar dunga. Aur phir rollback se main growing trend par wapas se purchases dekh raha hoon." Is tarah se aap apni strategy aur market analysis ko Roman Urdu mein likh sakte hain aur apne forum members ke saath share kar sakte hain.