جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY pair ne Jumera ko ek significant increase dekha, jab yeh 191.80s mein trading kar raha tha, jo ke ek quarter percent se zyada ka izafa hai. Yeh surge kuch ahm macroeconomic data aur events ki wajah se aaya jo dono currencies par positive asar daal rahe the. Office for National Statistics (ONS) se mila data yeh dikhata hai ke UK retail sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke 0.4% ki umeed se zyada hai aur July ke 0.5% ke izafe se bhi tez hai. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ke shoppers kharidari karte reh rahe hain, halanke borrowing costs unhein zyada mehsoos ho rahe hain. Is se prices par upward pressure ban sakta hai aur inflation barh sakta hai. Is wajah se Bank of England (BoE) ko shayad interest rates cut karne se roka ja sakta hai, jisse pound ko foreign capital inflows ke zariye support mil sakta hai.

Bank of England ne September ki meeting mein interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jismein vote ka nateeja aath (8) se ek (1) tha, jo sterling ko mazeed support faraham karta hai. Yeh faisla baaz doosri central banks ke rate cuts ke muqablay mein hai, jahan global inflationary pressures dheere ho rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, BoE ki policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments, jo ke lambi muddat tak restrictions ko barqarar rakhne ki baat kar rahi thi, ne sterling ki position ko mazid majboot banaya.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ne bhi momentum gain kiya jab inflation data yeh dikhaya ke consumer prices August mein 3.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke pehle mahine ke 2.8% se zyada hai aur yeh das mahine ka sab se uncha darja hai. Lekin, yen ko 188.00 ke key resistance level ko todne mein mushkilat ka samna karna pad raha hai, jo ab support ban chuka hai. Yeh movement 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm karta hai, jo bearish picture ko cancel kar deta hai. Halankeh price ka 193.50 ke area ke neeche hona yeh dikhata hai ke outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai

**GBP/USD Ka Halat: Naye Rujhan Aur Bazar Ki Haalat**
Jumeraat ko, GBP/USD joray ne Asian trading session mein naye positive momentum ka izhar kiya, jo 1.3430 ki level ke qareeb tez upar gaya, jo ke March 2022 ke baad ka sab se uncha level hai. Halankeh kai Fed officials ne bazar ki umeedon ko counter karne ki koshish ki ke wo monetary easing ko aur aage nahi badhenge, lekin investors ab bhi November tak significant rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain. Ye optimism, sath hi global financial markets mein bullish jazba, US dollar ko apne recent rebound ka faida uthane se rok raha hai, jo ke saal ke low ke qareeb tha. Ye haalat GBP/USD joray ko mazeed support de rahi hai.

**Bank of England Ki Rate-Cutting Cycle Se GBP Ka Support**

Is ke ilawa, ye umeed ke Bank of England (BoE) ka rate-cutting cycle, United States ke muqable mein dheere chalega, British pound (GBP) ko mazeed support de rahi hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/USD ka exchange rate barh raha hai. Lekin bullish traders shayad Fed ke rate-cutting path ke baray mein zyada wazeh saboot ka intezar kar rahe hain. Market ka focus ab FOMC ke ahm rukun, jaise ke Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, ke speeches par hai, jo dollar ko upar le ja sakte hain aur naye momentum ka zariya ban sakte hain. Traders ye bhi dekhte rahenge ke US ki economic data, jo ke Thursday ko release honge, jaise ke final Q2 GDP figures, weekly jobless claims, aur durable goods orders, in ke through short-term trading opportunities talash karen.

**Positive Umeed Ke Ba Wajood Market Ka Ihtiyaat**

Positive outlook ke bawajood, market ab bhi ehtiyaat barat rahi hai, jo ke technical oscillators se zahir hoti hai. Stochastic indicator overbought territory mein chala gaya hai, jabke RSI 70 level se bounce hone ke baad neeche ki taraf ja raha hai. Is ke ilawa, 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) apna positive momentum khota nazar aa raha hai, jo potential downward pressure ka ishara hai. Agar market pullback hota hai, to ye jora 1.3265 ke support level ki taraf ja sakta hai, aur baad mein 20-day moving average jo ke 1.3170 ke aas paas hai, wahan tak bhi pohanch sakta hai. Agar girawat jaari rahi, to ye 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level jo ke 1.2300 se 1.3365 tak ke uptrend ka hai, 1.3113 par hai, tak bhi gir sakta hai, shayad 1.3000 tak bhi, jahan ye 50-day moving average ke sath coincide karta hai.

**Upar Ki Taraf Movement Ka Imkan**

Dousri taraf, agar upar ki taraf pressure wapas shuru hota hai, to price 1.3400 area ki taraf ja sakta hai, aakhir mein 1.3640 ki taraf, jo February 2022 mein tay kiya gaya tha.

**Khatima**

Kholasa ye hai ke, jab ke GBP/USD ne supportive economic conditions aur BoE se dheere rate cuts ki umeed ke darmiyan resilience aur upside potential dikhaya hai, traders ko bazar ke signals aur ahm economic data par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo kisi bhi direction mein price movements ko badi tabdeeli de sakti hain.

rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas paas ho sakti hai. ZUP indicator ek price movement ko bearish pattern ki taraf signal kar raha hai: bearish 1.618 * AB = CD, jahan point D ka extreme price value 199.260 hai. Toh is waqt, bearish pattern ab bhi kaafi relevant hai. Indicators ki category se aur ek vote decrease ke liye. Fast stochastic (5.3.3) ke readings 70.884 aur 67.9982 ek price movement ko overbought ki taraf signal kar rahe hain, slow stochastic (50.10.25) ke readings 50.7735 aur 46.6937 halfway hain oversold zone se overbought zone tak. Is tarah se, hum keh sakte hain ke stochastic south movement ke against hain, magar, overnight yeh signal line values change kar sakti hain, agar instrument ne continue kiya Friday evening ke jaise, toh fast stochastic (5.3.3) ki values change ho sakti hain, aur slow bhi change ho sakta hai. raha tha ke Friday ko price 199.107 se bohot zyada upar jayegi. Magar, yeh is value se upar nahi ja saki. Iss liye mujhe lagta hai ke price abhi bhi gir ke 194.70-194.170 tak jayegi. Yeh tab hoga agar Friday ko rebound 4th wave in 3 thi, aur ab sirf 5th wave baqi hai. Agar 4th wave ke liye rollback 199.107 ki value tak nahi hota, toh hum expect kar sakte hain ke price resistance level W1 Sup: 200.412 tak chali jayegi. Agar 5th wave in 3 kaam karti hai, toh main sell ke entry dhoondunga. Main ab bhi maanta hoon ke yeh wave mein movement 350-370 STP ke aas Click image for larger version GBP/JPY pair ke favor mein strong market sentiment suggest karta hai. GBP/JPY mein uptrend traders ko multiple opportunities provide karta hai bullish price movements ka faida uthane ke liye. Key support aur resistance levels ko samajh kar aur respect kar ke traders strategically positions enter aur exit kar sakte hain, apne prof

GBP/JPY pair ne Jumera ko ek significant increase dekha, jab yeh 191.80s mein trading kar raha tha, jo ke ek quarter percent se zyada ka izafa hai. Yeh surge kuch ahm macroeconomic data aur events ki wajah se aaya jo dono currencies par positive asar daal rahe the. Office for National Statistics (ONS) se mila data yeh dikhata hai ke UK retail sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke 0.4% ki umeed se zyada hai aur July ke 0.5% ke izafe se bhi tez hai. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ke shoppers kharidari karte reh rahe hain, halanke borrowing costs unhein zyada mehsoos ho rahe hain. Is se prices par upward pressure ban sakta hai aur inflation barh sakta hai. Is wajah se Bank of England (BoE) ko shayad interest rates cut karne se roka ja sakta hai, jisse pound ko foreign capital inflows ke zariye support mil sakta hai.
Bank of England ne September ki meeting mein interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jismein vote ka nateeja aath (8) se ek (1) tha, jo sterling ko mazeed support faraham karta hai. Yeh faisla baaz doosri central banks ke rate cuts ke muqablay mein hai, jahan global inflationary pressures dheere ho rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, BoE ki policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments, jo ke lambi muddat tak restrictions ko barqarar rakhne ki baat kar rahi thi, ne sterling ki position ko mazid majboot banaya.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ne bhi momentum gain kiya jab inflation data yeh dikhaya ke consumer prices August mein 3.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke pehle mahine ke 2.8% se zyada hai aur yeh das mahine ka sab se uncha darja hai. Lekin, yen ko 188.00 ke key resistance level ko todne mein mushkilat ka samna karna pad raha hai, jo ab support ban chuka hai. Yeh movement 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm karta hai, jo bearish picture ko cancel kar deta hai. Halankeh price ka 193.50 ke area ke neeche hona yeh dikhata hai ke outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai

mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez d

GBPJPY ka market 190.16 par khula. Ye na sirf is din ka daily open tha balkay is hafte ka weekly open bhi tha. Is area ke aas-paas EMA 633 H1 bhi cross hota nazar aaya. Pehle Asian session mein price ne daily open aur qareebi resistance 191.01 ke darmiyan upar neeche kiya, lekin ye area abhi tak buyers ke strong push ko rok raha tha. Ye resistance EMA 200 H1 ke qareebi area mein tha. Jab buyers ka push fail hua, tou price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gaya. Price ne daily open ke neeche jaakar EMA 633 H1 ko bhi cross kiya, lekin support area 189.30 ke qareeb pohanch kar wapis upar aagaya. Ab price phir se resistance 191.01 ko test kar raha hai. EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas hone ke bawajood trend abhi tak clear nahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 neeche ki taraf stretch ho rahe hain, jo ke negative trend ka izhaar karte hain. Ye seller ka dominance pichlay Friday se shuru hua hai. Jab price rally ki koshish kar raha tha, tou ek extreme reversal nazar aaya. Price 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad weak ho gaya, jo ke EMA 200 aur EMA 633 H1 ko cross karte hue neeche gir gaya. Monday ke trading session mein bhi sellers ka dominance dekhne ko mila. Ab tak ki movement ka intizaar hai kyun ke EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas price ka maujood hona trend ko biased kar raha hai. Agar buyer bullish candle ke zariye is area ko support karte hain, tou bullish gap khulne ka imkaan hai. Friday ke weak hone ka market par bara asar tha, jab price EMA 200 daily ke upar move kar raha tha lekin resistance 196.01 ne price ko reject kar diya aur price gir kar 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily se neeche chala gaya. Is wakat high aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halanki price abhi EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, trend abhi tak bearish hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily bhi EMA 200 daily se neeche taper ho kar flat dikhai de rahe hain. Agar price Friday ke low se neeche chalta hai tou ye confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, aur phir price 187.68 ke daily support tak gir sakta hai. Agar buyers ka push 190.18 ke upar rehne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, tou buyers EMA 200 daily aur 192.84 area ko test karenge aur mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khul sakta hai. Abhi price EMA 200 daily ko test kar raha hai aur buyers ka zyada pressure nazar aa raha hai. Dekhte hain ke kya ye buyer's efforts kaamyab hote hain, taki buy option phir se consider ki ja sake. Is ke ilawa daily stochastic bhi neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai

data aur events ki wajah se aaya jo dono currencies par positive asar daal rahe the. Office for National Statistics (ONS) se mila data yeh dikhata hai ke UK retail sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke 0.4% ki umeed se zyada hai aur July ke 0.5% ke izafe se bhi tez hai. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ke shoppers kharidari karte reh rahe hain, halanke borrowing costs unhein zyada mehsoos ho rahe hain. Is se prices par upward pressure ban sakta hai aur inflation barh sakta hai. Is wajah se Bank of England (BoE) ko shayad interest rates cut karne se roka ja sakta hai, jisse pound ko foreign capital inflows ke zariye support mil sakta hai.
Bank of England ne September ki meeting mein interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jismein vote ka nateeja aath (8) se ek (1) tha, jo sterling ko mazeed support faraham karta hai. Yeh faisla baaz doosri central banks ke rate cuts ke muqablay mein hai, jahan global inflationary pressures dheere ho rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, BoE ki policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments, jo ke lambi muddat tak restrictions ko barqarar rakhne ki baat kar rahi thi, ne sterling ki position ko mazid majboot banaya.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ne bhi momentum gain kiya jab inflation data yeh dikhaya ke consumer prices August mein 3.0% tak barh gayi, jo ke pehle mahine ke 2.8% se zyada hai aur yeh das mahine ka sab se uncha darja hai. Lekin, yen ko 188.00 ke key resistance level ko todne mein mushkilat ka samna karna pad raha hai, jo ab support ban chuka hai. Yeh movement 183.70 par higher highs ko confirm karta hai, jo bearish picture ko cancel kar deta hai. Halankeh price ka 193.50 ke area ke neeche hona yeh dikhata hai ke outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai

BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh hint deta hai ke zyada downside limited ho sakti hai, jabke moving averages ek potential bearish crossover ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo seller dominance ko mazid barhata hai. Iske ilawa, Fibonacci retracement levels yeh batate hain ke next major support around 182.50 par hai, jo buyers ke liye market mein entry ka critical

GBP/USD ka jorha halka sa girawat ka shikaar hua, aur ye Friday ko European session ke doran 1.3403 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha. US dollar ne kuch taqat hasil ki jabke bazaar US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data ke release se pehle ehtiyaat barat rahe the.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) ne ye elan kiya ke US ka gross domestic product (GDP) doosre quarter mein saalana dar se 3.0% barh gaya, jo ke umeed ke mutabiq tha. GDP price index doosre quarter mein 2.5% barha. Iske ilawa, US mein pehli baar naukri se be-rozgar hone ke dawe 20 September ko khatam hone wali hafte mein 218,000 tak gir gaye, jo ke pehle se tay kiye gaye 225,000 se kam hain aur pichle hafte ke 222,000 se bhi kam hain.

Lekin, Federal Reserve ke afsaron ke dovish comments dollar par neeche ki taraf dabao dal sakte hain. Fed Governor Lisa Cook ne pichle hafte 50 basis point ke interest rate cut ki hamayat ki, aur isay employment ke liye "downside risks" ke barhne ki wajah se bayan kiya. GBP/USD ka jorha April se khaas tor par upar ki taraf chal raha hai, aur sirf agar ye uptrend line aur 200-day moving average ke neeche girta hai, tabhi maujooda nazariya tabdeel ho sakta hai. Jorhe ka haal ka bulandiyon ka darja 1.3434 hai, jo ke 2.5 saal ka buland darja hai, aur isay US dollar ke bazar mein wide sell-off ne barhaya.

Technical indicators ye darshate hain ke bazar mein nervousness barh rahi hai. Stochastic overbought zone mein gir gaya hai, jabke RSI 70 ke darje se bounce hone ke baad neeche ki taraf ja raha hai. Iske ilawa, 20-day SMA apni positive momentum kho raha hai, jo ke neeche ki taraf dabao ka ishaara hai.

Agar bazar mein thodi girawat aati hai, to jorha support level 1.3265 ki taraf seedha chalne ka moka de sakta hai, phir 20-day moving average 1.3170 ki taraf. Aage agar girawat hoti hai, to 1.2300 se 1.3365 tak ke uptrend ka 23.6% Fibonacci retracement 1.3113 par test kiya ja sakta hai, uske baad shayad ye 1.3000 tak gir jaye.

GBPJPY ka market 190.16 par khula. Ye na sirf is din ka daily open tha balkay is hafte ka weekly open bhi tha. Is area ke aas-paas EMA 633 H1 bhi cross hota nazar aaya. Pehle Asian session mein price ne daily open aur qareebi resistance 191.01 ke darmiyan upar neeche kiya, lekin ye area abhi tak buyers ke strong push ko rok raha tha. Ye resistance EMA 200 H1 ke qareebi area mein tha. Jab buyers ka push fail hua, tou price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gaya. Price ne daily open ke neeche jaakar EMA 633 H1 ko bhi cross kiya, lekin support area 189.30 ke qareeb pohanch kar wapis upar aagaya. Ab price phir se resistance 191.01 ko test kar raha hai. EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas hone ke bawajood trend abhi tak clear nahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 neeche ki taraf stretch ho rahe hain, jo ke negative trend ka izhaar karte hain. Ye seller ka dominance pichlay Friday se shuru hua hai. Jab price rally ki koshish kar raha tha, tou ek extreme reversal nazar aaya. Price 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad weak ho gaya, jo ke EMA 200 aur EMA 633 H1 ko cross karte hue neeche gir gaya. Monday ke trading session mein bhi sellers ka dominance dekhne ko mila. Ab tak ki movement ka intizaar hai kyun ke EMA 200 H1 ke aas-paas price ka maujood hona trend ko biased kar raha hai. Agar buyer bullish candle ke zariye is area ko support karte hain, tou bullish gap khulne ka imkaan hai. Friday ke weak hone ka market par bara asar tha, jab price EMA 200 daily ke upar move kar raha tha lekin resistance 196.01 ne price ko reject kar diya aur price gir kar 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily se neeche chala gaya. Is wakat high aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halanki price abhi EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, trend abhi tak bearish hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily bhi EMA 200 daily se neeche taper ho kar flat dikhai de rahe hain. Agar price Friday ke low se neeche chalta hai tou ye confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily ke neeche hai, aur phir price 187.68 ke daily support tak gir sakta hai. Agar buyers ka push 190.18 ke upar rehne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, tou buyers EMA 200 daily aur 192.84 area ko test karenge aur mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khul sakta hai. Abhi price EMA 200 daily ko test kar raha hai aur buyers ka zyada pressure nazar aa raha hai. Dekhte hain ke kya ye buyer's efforts kaamyab hote hain, taki buy option phir se consider ki ja sake. Is ke ilawa daily stochastic bhi neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai

GBP/JPY ka request buyers ke haq mein hai, lekin yeh bullish momentum zyada dair tak nahi tik sakta. Iska sabab yeh hai ke buyers pehle hi overbought zone tak pohanch chuke hain, jo yeh darshata hai ke upar ki taraf chalne ka silsila zyada ho raha hai. Jab koi request overbought condition mein hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishaara hota hai ke ek reversal nazar aa sakta hai. Isliye, hum jaldi hi market sentiment mein tabdeeli dekh sakte hain. Mujhe umeed hai ke buyers aakhir kar peeche hatenge aur price 189.78 ke support zone ko agle kuch ghanton mein cross karegi.
Aam tor par, meri short target 189.84 par hai. Yeh position ek maqool qareeb-i-muddat target hai, kyun ke yeh us anticipated downtrend ke sath milti hai jab support level tut jaata hai. Lekin, kisi bhi trade mein enter karte waqt ehtiyaat karna bohot zaroori hai, isliye stop loss ka istemal karna behtar rahega.



Yeh risk management tool aapke capital ko cover karne mein madadgar hoga agar market aapki position ke khilaf move kare, is se aapke mumkinah losses ko control mein rakhna asaan hoga. Is ke ilawa, GBP/JPY ke traders ko expect kiya ja raha hai ke jab market dynamics shift hote hain, to unka control barh jayega. Technical indicators buying force ke kam hone ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, aur yeh traders ko prices ko neeche push karne ka mauqa de sakta hai, jo ke crucial support area ko agle kuch ghanton mein cross karega.
Is bearish outlook ko mazid badhawa dene wale hain Bank of Japan (BOJ) se aaye news events, jo traders ko stabilize karne mein madadgar sabit hue hain. BOJ ki monetary policy aur kisi bhi related statements JPY par bohot asar daal sakti hain, aur is case mein yeh traders ko kuch support de rahi hain. Aakhir mein, jab ke GBP/JPY abhi ke liye buyers ke haath mein hai, lekin reversal ka khatar badh raha hai. 189.84 par sell position kholna ek strategic move lagta hai, khaaskar jab stop loss protection ke liye ho, kyun ke traders ko jaldi hi support area cross karne ki umeed hai.
GBP/JPY ke agle trend ko influence karega. Is liye, behtar hoga ke 184.50 level ke neeche ek sustainable breakout ka intezar kiya jaye taake agle move ka faisla ho sake. Agar bears 185.00-185.65 ke neeche close karte hain, tou candlestick pattern reliable nahi hoga, chahe RSI aur Stochastics oversold levels ke qareeb kyun na ho. Agar price neeche girti hai tou August ke low 183.00 ka retest ho sakta hai, aur uske neeche 2022 aur 2024 lows ko milane wali support trend line par price 182.00 tak pohonch sakti hai.

jo 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par hai, jo qareeb 191.63 par positioned hai. EMA ek ahem technical indicator hai jo price data ko smooth out karke trends ko highlight karta hai. Jab price 21-day EMA ke qareeb hoti hai, to yeh aksar is baat ka ishara hota hai ke price ya to reverse kar sakti hai ya consolidate. Traders aur investors is level ko barabar dekhte hain, takay price action ke signal mil sakein, jaise ke resistance jo mazeed upar jane se rok sake. GBP/JPY ke daily chart ka jaiza yeh dikhata hai ke bullish bias kamzor ho raha hai. Is observation ka matlab hai ke jo momentum pair ko upar le kar ja raha tha, wo ab kamzor ho raha hai. Bullish bias ka kamzor hona kai factors ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jaise ke overbought conditions, market sentiment ka shift hona, ya nayi economic data jo pehle ke upward trend ko challenge kar rahi ho. Traders ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke yeh tamam elements ko dekhte hue future price movement ka potential samjhen Bearish Shift ka Imkan: Ek ahem technical feature jo dekhne laayak hai wo hai ascending channel jisme GBP/JPY trade kar raha hai. Agar price is ascending channel ke neeche break kar jati hai, to yeh bullish se bearish market bias mein tabdeel hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Ascending channel aksar ek consistent upward trend ko represent karta hai, jisme higher highs aur higher lows hoti hain. Agar price is channel ke neeche gir jati hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho sakta hai ke upward trend ab kamzor ho raha hai aur market sentiment bearishness ki taraf shift ho raha hai Economic Data Releases: UK aur Japan, dono ke economic indicators GBP/JPY ki movements par aham asar dalte hain. Misal ke taur par, agar UK ki economic data strong hoti hai to yeh GBP ke liye bullish outlook ko support kar sakti hai, jabke weak data GBP par pressure daal sakti hai. Isi tarah Japan mein economic developments, jaise ke monetary policy mein changes ya economic performance, bhi exchange rate par asar dalti hain Monetary Policy Divergence: Bank of England (BoE) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki interest rate decisions aur monetary policies bahut aham hain. In do

### GBP/USD Ka Jaiza: Aik Tafsili Jaiza

#### Haalati Bazaar ki Soorat-e-Haal

Budh ke din, GBP/USD currency pair lagbhag 1.3400 ke aspass trade kar raha hai. Yeh 30 maheenon ki unchai 1.3430 se thoda peeche hai jo haal hi mein hasil hui. Halankeh US dollar kamzor hai aur bazaar mein risk ka jazba acha hai, lekin traders British pound mein apne long positions ko khatam kar rahe hain, jis se kuch munafa booking hui hai.

#### Haal ki Performance

GBP/USD ne apne haal ke faide ko qaim rakha hai, jo pichle do hafton mein kafi zyada raha hai. Budh ke din, Asian session mein, yeh pair March 2022 ke baad se sabse uncha level 1.3430 tak pohanch gaya. Yeh performance pound ke liye bullish jazbaat ko darshata hai, jo ke broader market dynamics ki wajah se hai.

#### Bunyadi Asbab

**Sood Ki Dynaamik**

Bunyadi pehlu ye dikhate hain ke spot prices ka rukh ooper ki taraf ho sakta hai, lekin daily chart par thoda overbought hone ki wajah se ehtiyaat zaroori hai. Bank of England (BoE) ka sood ghatana, America ke muqablay mein, dheere tareeqe se hone ki umeed hai. BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne budh ko kaha ke jab ke sood darje niche ki taraf jaane ki umeed hai, lekin iski raftar dheemi hogi, aur ultra-low levels par wapas jaane ki sambhavna sirf significant market shocks ke bina mushkil hai.

**US Federal Reserve ke liye Bazaar ka Jazba**

Is ke muqablay mein, bazaar ke hissedaar Federal Reserve se zyada aggressive policy easing ki umeed laga rahe hain, jo US dollar ki kamzori ka sabab bana hai. Filhal, CME Group ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 75% se zyada sambhavna hai ke Federal Reserve November mein 50 basis points ka sood ghatayega.

**Haal ki Ma’ashi Data ka Asar**

Mangal ke din aayi kamzor US macroeconomic data aur overall risk-on environment ne safe-haven currencies ko kamzor kar diya, jis se GBP/USD pair ke liye achi umeed ki tasveer ban gayi. Lekin daily chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 se upar chala gaya hai, jo minor pullback ya consolidation ki sambhavna darshata hai.

#### Aane Wali Ma’ashi Data aur Waqiyat

Traders UK se aayi ma’ashi data ka intezar kar rahe hain. BoE ke MPC member Megan Green ka scheduled speech GBP par asar daal sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ko kuch momentum de sakta hai.

North American session mein, US naye gharon ki sales data short-term trading opportunities ko jaanchne ke liye ahmiyat rakhta hai. Magar traders ehtiyaat se kaam lenge aur influential FOMC members, jaise ke Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ke bayan ka intezar karenge jo Thursday ko hoga, aur US PCE price index ki release jo Friday ko hai.

#### Nateeja

Aakhir mein, jab ke GBP/USD pair kuch bunyadi asbab aur acha market jazba ke wajah se taqatwar nazar aa raha hai, traders ko technical charts par overbought conditions ka khayal rakhna chahiye. Aane wali ma’ashi indicators aur central bank officials ke key speeches par nazar rakhna is currency pair ki agle movements ke liye ahm insight faraham kar sakta hai.

mein 208.00 ke resistance par jab yeh tha, British pound ko Japanese yen ke against sell karne ka mashwara de chuka hoon. Economic diary ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke construction sector ki growth 26 maheenon ke highest level tak pohanch gayi hai. Standard & Poor's Global ke zariye jari ki gayi UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index July 2024 mein 55.3 tak barh gayi, jo market expectations 52.7 se zyada thi aur June ke 52.2 se barh gayi, jo ke construction sector mein ek significant monthly expansion ko zahir karti Hi. Yeh growth 5 maheenon ki current expansion series ko barhawa de rahi hai, jismein growth rate May 2022 ke baad se sabse tez tha. July mein housing projects mein growth ki wapsi hui, commercial activity mein bhi izafa dekhne ko mila, jabke civil engineering mein do saal aur aadha saal mein sabse tez expansion dekhne ko mili. Is mahine activity aur naye orders mein tezi se izafa hua, jis se purchasing activity aur employment levels mein lagatar teesray mahine izafa dekhne ko mila. Increased demand ne supply chain par pressures dalay aur input costs mein tez izafa dekha gaya. Dosri taraf, British 10-year Treasury bonds ke yield mein 6 maheenon ke lowest level se izafa dekha gaya. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq, British 10-year Treasury note ka yield 3.74% ke six-month low se barh kar takreeban 3.9% tak chala gaya, US services sector ke July mein rebound aur Federal Reserve policymakers ke calming comments ke baad, jo market ke kuch losses ko kam karne mein madadgar sabit hue. GBP/JPY pair ko aaj sell kar sakte hain. Agar price 199.50 level ko upside se break karta hai, to yeh short-term bearish outlook ko invalidate kar dega. Is bear move ke liye projected target 194.00 hai. Safe trading ke liye, aap apni half position 194.76 par close kar sakte hain. Main das saalon se forex trading kar raha hoon. Aakhri do saalon mein maine kuch khaas cheez discover ki hai. Is forum

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apna interest rate 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke aik ihtiyaati approach ko zahir karta hai jabke policymakers mazeed wazeh economic recovery ke indicators ka intezar kar rahe hain. Is faislay ka asar Japanese yen ki qeemat par hota hai, kyunke stable interest rate ka matlab hai ke BoJ abhi tak monetary policy ko tighten karne ke liye tayar nahi hai jabke mulk ko ab bhi kuch economic challenges ka samna hai. Analysts khas tor par Japan ke inflation data aur employment figures ko ghaur se dekh rahe hain, kyunke yeh BoJ ke stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de sakti hain. Doosri taraf, UK Retail Sales data bhi qareebi taur par dekha ja raha hai. Agar retail performance mazboot raha, toh British pound ko support milegi, jo ke consumer confidence aur economic strength ko zahir karega, lekin agar figures disappoint karti hain, toh currency par downward pressure aasakta hai. Europe mein chalte huye geopolitical tensions aur global economic growth ke hawalay se badhta hua uncertainty, market sentiment ko aur bhi mushkil bana raha hai, jis ki wajah se GBP/JPY mein fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain. Technical chart ko dekhte huye, GBP/JPY upward movement ke liye ek naazuk position mein nazar aa raha hai. Japan se aham data release hone ke baad, yeh asset ab retrace kar raha hai. H4 chart ka analysis yeh dikha raha hai ke pair ne local resistance level 189.10 ko break kiya, jo ke pehle aik rukawat tha. Magar agar hum daily aur H4 charts ka bara view dekhein, toh 189.10 se 191.24 ka zone aik significant resistance area hai. Bullish momentum tabhi qaim ho sakti hai jab price na sirf 191.24 ko break kare, balkay uske upar trading bhi sustain kare. Chand haftay pehle asset ne yeh resistance breach karne ki koshish ki thi aur aik daily white candle banayi thi. Magar, is bullish koshish ke baad aik bearish engulfing pattern bana, jo ke market sentiment mein selling ke taraf tabdeeli ko zahir karta hai. Is development ne aik bearish trend ko shuru kiya jo ke price ko local support zone ke qareeb 183.13 tak le aaya. Key technical indicators ko bhi ghaur se dekhna zaroori hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo ke yeh hint deta hai ke zyada downside limited ho sakti hai, jabke moving averages ek potential bearish crossover ka ishara kar rahe hain, jo seller dominance ko mazid barhata hai. Iske ilawa, Fibonacci retracement levels yeh batate hain ke next major support around 182.50 par hai, jo buyers ke liye