nzd/usd

**NZD/USD D1 Chart**
**BONUS UPDATE AVIZ SIR.**

NZD/USD currency pair pichle trading sessions mein aik positive rukh dikhata raha hai, jo ke zyada tar Federal Reserve ke dovish honay ki umeed ki wajah se hai. Magar, is pair ki upar ki taraf chalne ki taqat mein kuch challenges hain, kyunki Amrika aur New Zealand dono mein ma'ashi uncertainties iski gains ko kam kar sakti hain. Federal Reserve ke September mein rate cut ki umeed, jo ke aam tor par 25 basis points se zyada ho sakti hai, New Zealand dollar ke liye aik ahm tailwind sabit hui hai. Yeh umeed US job growth mein haal hi mein aayi kami se mazid mazboot hoti hai. Jabke dusre quarter ke retail sales data mein thodi kami dekhi gayi, lekin isne New Zealand ki ma'ashi halat ke hawale se overall positive jazbaat ko khas taur par nahi badla. U.S. recession ke khauf aur China mein ma'ashi challenges ke nayi fikr ne aik zyada risk-averse environment bana diya hai, jo NZD ko nuqsan pohanchasakta hai. RBNZ ka haal hi mein rate cut aur ehtiyaat bhara nazariya yeh darust karta hai ke mazeed monetary easing ki sambhavna hai, jo NZD/USD ke liye upside potential ko limit kar sakta hai.

Maine aik sell position kholi hai kyunki chalti hui price white box area mein level 0.6213 par pahuncha hai aur agar NZD/USD uspe se bearish candlestick banata hai to price 0.6060 ki taraf gir sakti hai, jo baad mein RBS area ban jayega aur hum isay TP1 level bana sakte hain. Phir agar price 0.6060 area ke neeche aur kamzor hoti hai to hum sell position ko tab tak rakhein ge jab tak 0.5835 zone mein kami nahi aati aur hum isay next week ke liye TP2 level bana sakte hain. Is ke ilawa, sab se bura haal dekhte hue, agar white box area rejection dene mein nakam Aksar, agar Fed apni monetary policy ko mazid sakht karna jari rakhta hai, ya agar Amrici ma'ashi data umeed se zyada behtar hota hai, to yeh USD ko NZD ke muqablay mein aur mazid mazboot kar sakta hai, jo bearish trend ko barhawa de sakta hai. Bazaar ka jazba bhi ahmiyat rakhta hai, kyunki traders khabron aur developments par react karte hain jo risk appetite ko asar انداز kar sakti hain.

Mukhtasir yeh kehna hai hai to phir NZD/USD ke bullish confirmation ka shuru hona zaroori hai aur humein sell position band karni hogi. Phir recover karne ke liye humein buy position kholni hogi jiska target resistance area 0.6330 par hoga. Aapka shukriya jo aapne meri wazahat suni. Umeed hai ke hum agle hafte NZD/USD movement par profit ko optimize kar sakenge.

**NZD/USD H4 Chart**
Hello, azeem forum ke rukun! Aaj, main NZD/USD currency pair ka aik tajziyaati jaiza de raha hoon jo H1 chart par mabni hai. Filhal, trading instrument 0.5920 par hai. Aaj ke Asian trading session mein, pair ne 0.5956 par resistance ka samna kiya. Is level ko paar karne mein nakam rahne ke baad, price neeche ki taraf chalne lagi, jo aakhir kar 0.5918 tak gir gayi. Maujooda bazaar ki halat aur dekhe gaye harkaat ko dekhte hue, yeh mumkin lagta hai ke trading instrument ka price 0.5900 level ke neeche gir sakta hai. Yeh mazeed kami ki sambhavna ko darust karta hai, jo bearish trend ki continuation ko darust karta hai. Jaise jaise halat evolve huye hain, NZD/USD pair ne sirf 0.5900 level tak nahi pahuncha, balki isse bhi neeche gir kar 0.5876 par trade kar raha hai. Filhal, chart par aik reversal zone samne aaya hai, jo levels 0.5859 aur 0.5886 ke darmiyan hai. Yeh zaroori hai ke hum is baat ko mad-e-nazar rakhein: agar price resistance level 0.5886 ke upar uthi aur is level par aik ghanta candle band ki, to maujooda kami sirf aik stop collection ho sakti hai. Yeh rebound aur baad mein 0.5978 ke resistance level ki taraf uthane ki sambhavna ko darust karega. Is scenario mein, yeh behtar hoga ke stop-loss orders ko is level ke neeche rakhein.

Aaj ka tajziya aik dilchasp mukabla hai. Agar aap 4-hour time frame mein price movement pattern ko dekhte hain, to aisa lagta hai ke NZD/USD market downtrend ki taraf chalne ka rujhan rakhta hai, jaise ke pichle do hafton ke time frame ko dekhein to trend bearish dikhai deta hai. Kal raat bhi market bearish rally ki taraf chal raha tha. Aaj ke trading period tak, price position 0.6151 area ke aas paas phas gayi hai. Aane wale market trend ke liye, main Sell trading option ko pasand karta hoonbanata hai to


price 0.6060 ki taraf gir sakti hai, jo baad mein RBS area ban jayega aur hum isay TP1 level bana sakte hain. Phir agar price 0.6060 area ke neeche aur kamzor hoti hai to hum sell position ko tab tak rakhein ge jab tak 0.5835 zone mein kami nahi aati aur hum isay next week ke liye TP2 level bana sakte hain. Is ke ilawa, sab se bura haal dekhte hue, agar white box area rejection dene mein nakam rahta hai to phir NZD/USD ke bullish confirmation ka shuru hona zaroori hai aur humein sell position band karni hogi. Phir recover karne ke kyunki candlestick ke paas 100-period simple moving average zone ke neeche aur neeche jaane ka mauqa hai. Halankeh filhal main market ki halat ko monitor kar raha hoon jabke rally bearish hai, main ab bhi market mein price barhne ki sambhavnayein dekh raha hoon.

Aaj yeh samajh aata hai ke bohat si high impact khabrein release hui hain, jo bazaar ko zyada crowded banane ki sambhavna rakhte hain. NZD/USD currency pair ne thodi kami dekhi hai kyunki candle 0.6163 ke price par resistance ko paar karne mein nakam rahi. Filhal NZD/USD ka price 0.6149 par trade ho raha hai. H1 resistance 0.6163 par iski taqat ka imtihan liya jayega kyunki agar isay tooda gaya, to NZD/USD mein izafa hoga. Lekin, agar yeh toota nahi, to NZD/USD aur bhi upar ja sakta hai. Upar diye gaye tajziye se, mujhe lagta hai ke aap yeh andaza laga rahe hain ke NZD/USD barhega kyunki candle ka position ab bhi MA 100 line ke upar hai. Stochastic oscillator bhi upar ki taraf chal raha hai, jo mazeed upar ki harkat ki sambhavna ko support karta hai. Aane wale hafton mein, is pair ka volatile rehne ki umeed hai, jisme ahm price movements RBNZ ke interest rate faislay aur US consumer price index data jese key events se asar انداز hongi. Agar positive momentum jari rahta hai, to yeh pair 0.6037-0.6092 resistance level ko target kar sakta hai, jo 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, pehle ke support levels, aur key moving averages ko shamil karta hai. Agar is resistance ko successfully toota gaya, to yeh October 2019 ke low 0.6198 ki taraf movement ka darwaza khol sakta hai. Is darmiyan, aaj main andaza laga raha hoon ke pehle NZD/USD gir sakta hai kyunki H1 support 0.6131 par toota hai. Support ka toorna yeh darust karta hai ke NZD/USD aur bhi gehra gir sakta hai. Isliye, main un logon ko jo is pair mein trading karte hain, pehle sell position kholne par focus karne ki sifarish karta hoon. Target ke liye, aap isay 0.6060 par sab se nazdeek support par rakh sakte hain.

NZD/USD ka price 0.6200 range ko tod kar 0.6192 level tak gir gaya hai, jo bazaar mein sellers ki taqat ko barha raha hai. Is ke natije mein, bulls ke liye yeh bohot ahm hai ke 0.6234 level ko pakar ke rakhein taake apni maujoodgi bana rahein. Daily time frame ek wazeh selling scenario dikhata hai, jo yeh darust karta hai ke bearish momentum jari rah sakta hai. Daily chart ka yeh pehlu sellers ke liye khaas tor par faida mand hai, jo ke stop loss ko 0.61226 level par rakhne par ghoor karen taake apne risk ko behtar tareeqe se manage kar saken. 0.6234 level ki ahmiyat ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta, kyunki isay pakar ke rakhna bulls ke liye aur bhi kami se bachne ke liye zaroori hai. Dono hourly aur daily time frames par, NZD/USD market kaafi significant selling pressure mein hai. Yeh pressure broader trend ka aks hai, jahan sellers filhal control mein hain, price ko neeche ki taraf push kar rahe hain aur kisi bhi bullish koshish ko dubara control karne ke liye challenge kar rahe hain. 0.6200 ke neeche ka break is bearish nazar ko aur mazid barha raha hai, jo ongoing market movement mein aik pivotal point bana raha hai. Sellers is momentum ka faida uthane ke liye tayyar hain, daily time frame ko apne trades ke liye rehnuma ke tor par istemal karte hue, jab tak unka stop loss 0.61226 par hai taake kisi bhi ghaflati market reversal se bach sakein.ka tajziya aik dilchasp mukabla hai. Agar aap 4-hour time frame mein price movement pattern ko dekhte hain, to aisa lagta hai ke NZD/USD market downtrend ki taraf chalne ka rujhan rakhta hai, jaise ke pichle do hafton ke time frame ko dekhein to trend bearish dikhai deta hai. Kal raat bhi market bearish rally ki taraf chal raha tha. Aaj ke trading period tak, price position 0.6151 area ke aas paas phas gayi hai. Aane wale market trend ke liye, main Sell trading option ko pasand karta hoon kyunki candlestick ke paas 100-period simple moving average zone ke neeche aur neeche jaane ka

pressure hai, jo kisi bhi significant recovery ko rok raha hai. Downside par liquidity sweeps (D-Liq), jo ke 0.61250 ke qareeb dekhi gayi, modest buyer interest se mil chuki hain. Magar in zones ka baar baar test hona yeh darshaata hai ke buyers ki taqat dheere dheere kamzor ho rahi hai, jo ke 0.61200 ke neeche breakdown ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai, toh price aur gir ke 0.61000 ka area target kar sakta hai, jo ke 2 Bottom Liquidity zone ke sath milta hai aur potential support provide karta hai. Agar price upar ki taraf retrace karta hai, toh 0.62000 ke aas-paas strong resistance ka saamna karega, jahan pehle liquidity grabs aur FVGs maujood hain. Is level ka break hona zaroori hoga taake pair ek bullish outlook ki taraf shift kar sake. Iske ilawa, chart par downside aur upside par multiple FVG zones mojood hain jo ke pivotal areas hain, jahan price imbalances volatility ka sabab ban sakti hain jab market participants liquidity ki talash mein hote hain. Akhir mein, NZD/USD pair ab bhi pressure mein hai, aur downside outlook tab tak qaim rahega jab tak price 0.62000 resistance se neeche hai. Agar 0.61250 ke neeche break hota hai, toh yeh 0.61000 aur is se neeche tak ka rasta khol sakta hai. Magar agar koi recovery attempt hoti hai, toh usay pehle strong resistance 0.62000 par cross karna hoga, phir uske baad higher liquidity zones ka target 0.62500 ke aas-paas hoga. Overall bias ab tak bearish hai jab tak lower liquidity zones ke qareeb significant buying pressure samne nahi aata. Non-linear regression channels (convex lines), jo ke qareebi mustaqbil ka forecast karti hain, golden line of the lower channel ko cross karti hain aur upward direction dikhati hain. Ek aur dalil jo buy entry ke haq mein hai, woh yeh ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators oversold zone

### Technical Analysis

**NZD/USD Daily**

NZD/USD ab ek corrective decline mein hai, lekin bazar ka major trend upar ki taraf hai. Pehle ki koshish mein price gir gayi thi, lekin kal phir se upar gayi. Iske ilawa, U.S. dollar ki aam taqat ki wajah se bhi market ne girawat dekhi. Wave structure abhi bhi bullish hai. MACD indicator upper buy zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai. Lekin, MACD ka bearish divergence dekha gaya hai, jo ke ek strong sell signal hai.

CCI indicator bhi upper overheating zone ke neeche jaane ki tayyari kar raha hai aur ismein bhi bearish divergence hai. Kal ka candle pichhle bullish candle ko cover karte hue bearish engulfing candlestick pattern bana raha hai. Yeh sell signals ki tasdiq hai.

In sab ke alawa, price ne ek khubsurat ascending wedge banaya hai, jo ke ek girne wala pattern hai. Halankeh upward trend hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke jald hi price phir se purane daily waves ke neeche banayi gayi ascending line par pressure daalegi.

Upar ki taraf jo movement kal raat shuru hui thi, woh horizontal support level par hai jo 0.6257 hai. Is support level ko todhna chahiye. Divergence ek powerful signal hai.

Moscow time ke mutabiq, aaj 15-30 baje kuch aham khabrein aane wali hain: U.S. mein core index of personal consumption expenditures, foreign trade balance in goods, personal consumption expenditures price index, individual expenditures, aur retail trade ke liye car inventory ka data.

Aaj ke liye, agle teen dinon mein sirf sales ki taraf tawajjo deni chahiye. Is waqt market ka haal dekhte hue, yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke bearish signals ke aane ke baad, investors ko short selling par focus karna chahiye.

Aam tor par, jab tak price support level ko nahi todti, tab tak upward movement mein choti moti girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Traders ko chahiye ke woh price movements par nazar rakhein aur market ki halat ke mutabiq apne faislay karein. Bearish engulfing pattern aur bearish divergence se ye maloom hota hai ke aage ke dinon mein market mein kaafi volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Isliye, aaj aur agle kuch dinon mein sales ki taraf tawajjo dena behter hoga.

Chaliye D1 period ka chart dekhtay hain, jo NZDUSD currency pair ka hai. Kal ki girawat kafi kamiyaab rahi, jisme price kaafi zyada neeche gir gayi, magar aaj kuch barhavat phir se nazar aa rahi hai. Kal ki girawat ka sabab US dollar ki taqat mein izafa tha, jo us waqt market par asar andaz ho raha tha. Abhi bhi wave structure upar ki taraf hai, aur MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein hai, apni signal line ke ooper. MACD indicator par ek bearish divergence bhi hai, jo ke ek strong sell signal hai. CCI indicator bhi ab upper overheating zone se neeche ki taraf ja raha hai, aur is par bhi bearish divergence nazar aa raha hai.

Kal ka candle poori tarah se pichlay barhnay wale candle ko cover kar gaya, jisse ek candlestick pattern bana, jise bearish engulfing kehte hain. Yeh sell signals ka tasdeeq hai. In tamam cheezon ke ilawa, price ne ek khubsurat ascending wedge bhi banaya, jo ke ek girawat ki nishani hoti hai. Halankeh trend abhi bhi upar ki taraf hai, lekin haalaat ko dekh kar lagta hai ke ane walay waqt mein phir se price ko neeche ki taraf dhakela jayega, jo ascending line ke saath ban rahi hai jo ke purani daily waves ke neeche ke hisay mein bani hui hai. Aur raat mein jo barhavat shuru hui, uska sabab horizontal support level 0.6257 hai. Mere khayal mein, humein is barhavat ka akhri hisa chhoti time frame par dekhna chahiye, wahan se sell formation dekh kar neeche ki taraf kaam karna chahiye.






Aaj ka main news package Moscow time ke mutabiq 15:30 par nikal raha hai, jisme kuch ahem reports shamil hain: US mein unemployment benefits hasil karne walon ki total tadaad, US mein durable goods ke core orders, US mein personal consumption expenditures ka core price index, durable goods ke orders ka volume, US ka GDP, GDP deflator, aur US mein unemployment benefits ki initial applications ki tadaad. 16:20 par US Federal Reserve System ke head Jerome Powell ka khitaab bhi hai.

NZD/USD pair ne Thursday ko European trading session ke dauran mazahmat ka muzahira kiya, pichlay session ke nuqsan se ubharte hue aur 0.6280 ke qareeb trading ki. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh zahir karti hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary ko test kar raha hai. Agar is channel se kamiyabi se breakout hota hai, to yeh jari uptrend ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Magar, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 level ke upar hai, jo ke bullish sentiment ko confirm karta hai. Is ke ilawa, nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 50-day EMA se upar hai, jo NZD/USD pair ke liye short-term mein mazid mazboot price trend ka ishara deta hai.
Uptside par, NZD/USD pair 0.6380 level ke qareeb ka ilaqa explore kar sakti hai, jo ascending channel ka upper boundary hai. Agar yeh upper boundary ka breakout hota hai, to yeh bullish bias ko mazid mazboot karega aur pair ko December 2023 mein record hue 15-month highs 0.6409 tak waapas le ja sakta hai.
Support side par, EMA 0.6251 par hai. Agar is level se neeche ka break hota hai, to yeh bullish sentiment ko nuksaan pohcha sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day moving average 0.6156 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, jahan se aage ja kar five-week low 0.6106 tak pohnch sakta hai. NZD/USD pair ne Wednesday ko mazid gains ko extend karte hue nine-month high 0.6354 ko chooa tha, magar phir halkay nuqsanat ka samna kiya. Pair August band se upar break kar gaya, aur December 2023 ke high 0.6368 par focus shift kiya. Magar, rally ke mutaliq slow hone ka imkaan hai, kyun ke RSI aur Stochastic se overbought signals aa rahe hain. Agar 0.6368 ke upar ek decisive close hota hai, to yeh ek naye upside wave ko trigger kar sakta hai jo recent decline ke 161.8% Fibonacci extension 0.6415 tak ja sakta hai. December 2022 aur February 2023 ke darmiyan, 0.6465 ka ilaqa kuch constraints pose kar sakta hai. Aage ja kar, bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye ek mazeed upar ki move zaroori ho sakti hai. Haal hi mein, Fed ne char saal mein pehli dafa apni interest rate mein kami ka elan kiya, jis mein key borrowing rate ko 50 basis points se kam kiya gaya. Yeh qadam zyada accommodative monetary policy ki taraf ishara karta hai, lekin Fed ke policymakers ne yeh bhi zahir kiya hai ke rate-cutting cycle ziyada aggressive nahi hoga. Is se mustaqbil mein US monetary policy ke raste ke mutaliq kuch ghair yaqeeni paida ho gayi hai, jo ke market mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan barqarar rakhti hai.

Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh zahir karti hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary ko test kar raha hai. Agar is channel se kamiyabi se breakout hota hai, to yeh jari uptrend ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Magar, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 level ke upar hai, jo ke bullish sentiment ko confirm karta hai. Is ke ilawa, nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 50-day EMA se upar hai, jo NZD/USD pair ke liye short-term mein mazid mazboot price trend ka ishara deta hai. Upside par, NZD/USD pair 0.6380 level ke qareeb ka ilaqa explore kar sakti hai, jo ascending channel ka upper boundary hai. Agar yeh upper boundary ka breakout hota hai, to yeh bullish bias ko mazid mazboot karega aur pair ko December 2023 mein record hue 15-month highs 0.6409 tak waapas le ja sakta hai.
Support side par, EMA 0.6251 par hai. Agar is level se neeche ka break hota hai, to yeh bullish sentiment ko nuksaan pohcha sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day moving average 0.6156 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, jahan se aage ja kar five-week low 0.6106 tak pohnch sakta hai. NZD/USD pair ne Wednesday ko mazid gains ko extend karte hue nine-month high 0.6354 ko chooa tha, magar phir halkay nuqsanat ka samna kiya. Pair August band se upar break kar gaya, aur December 2023 ke high 0.6368 par focus shift kiya. Magar, rally ke mutaliq slow hone ka imkaan hai, kyun ke RSI aur Stochastic se overbought signals aa rahe hain. Agar 0.6368 ke upar ek decisive close hota hai, to yeh ek naye upside wave ko trigger kar sakta hai jo recent decline ke 161.8% Fibonacci extension 0.6415 tak ja sakta hai. December 2022 aur February 2023 ke darmiyan, 0.6465 ka ilaqa kuch constraints pose kar sakta hai. Aage ja kar, bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye ek mazeed upar ki move zaroori ho sakti hai. Haal hi mein, Fed ne char saal mein pehli dafa apni interest rate mein kami ka elan kiya, jis mein key borrowing rate ko 50 basis points se kam kiya gaya. Yeh qadam zyada accommodative monetary policy ki taraf ishara karta hai, lekin Fed ke policymakers ne yeh bhi zahir kiya hai ke rate-cutting cycle ziyada aggressive nahi hoga. Is se mustaqbil mein US monetary policy ke raste ke mutaliq kuch ghair yaqeeni paida ho gayi haiClick image for larger version

**NZD/USD Pair Analysis**

Technically, NZD/USD pair 0.6250 ki position par resistance ka samna kar raha hai. Agar yeh position par break hota hai, toh is se aage ki kamaai ki sambhavnayein badh sakti hain, jinki targets 0.6300 aur 0.6368 hain. Lekin agar yeh pair 20-day EMA ke neeche chala jata hai, toh yeh 0.6172 par support ka samna kar sakta hai. Is position ke neeche break hone par sell-off shuru ho sakta hai, jiske implicit targets 0.6120 aur 0.6020 honge. Aakhir mein, NZD/USD pair filhal ek mazboot US dollar aur market ki demand ki wajah se pressure mein hai. Fed ke rate-cutting cycle aur global economic conditions is pair ki direction par asar daalti rahegi. Traders ko technical situations aur fundamental factors ko dekhte hue informed decisions lena chahiye. Geopolitical developments, jaise trade tensions ya geopolitical conflicts, bhi NZD/USD pair par asar daal sakti hain. Yeh events demand ko generate kar sakte hain aur currency market mein volatility ko barha sakte hain. In naye factors ko dekhte hue, traders NZD/USD pair ke driving factors ko samajh sakte hain aur informed trading decisions le sakte hain.

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**Recent Price Action**

Kal, sellers ka distraction nazar aaya, jahan price ne Asian session mein negative movement kiya. Price, jo ke Wednesday ke daily open 0.6143 se shift hui thi, 0.6158 se neeche chali gayi. Sellers ne 0.6144 area ko successfully penetrate kiya aur price ko niche ki taraf le gaya. Resistance tab nazar aaya jab price EMA 36 H1 area ko touch kiya, jo 0.6127 se 0.6132 ke beech cross hua. Kai baar price ne is area ko penetrate karne ki koshish ki, lekin EMA 36 H1 ne short-term dynamic support ka role play kiya. Aakhir mein, price ne ek confirmed rejection ke baad upar ki taraf ghooma. Upar jaane ki koshish karte waqt, price sirf 0.6172 tak hi pahuncha aur market ne Wednesday ki trading par 0.6149 par close kiya. EMA 200 H1 abhi bhi price movement ke neeche hai, aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 upar hain lekin inka behavior bullish current ke is uptrend mein koi tabdeeli nahi dikhata. Halankeh buyers ki push filhal kumzor nazar aa rahi hai, lekin EMA 36 H1 abhi bhi ek rukawat hai. Kyunki filhal price dekhne mein daily open Thursday 0.6149 se 0.6130 aur 0.6169 ke beech upar neeche ho raha hai, jahan EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 thoda narrow ho rahe hain. Agar in dono choti EMAs ka cross hota hai, toh nayi movement ki direction tayaar ho jayegi.

Jaise hi price retrace hui, yeh 0.6140 level ki taraf gir gayi, liquidity gaps ko fill karte hue aur previous support levels ko test karte hue. August ke end tak, price 0.6140 aur 0.6240 levels ke beech oscillate hui, jo ek range-bound structure banata hai. Yeh range aksar upper aur lower bounds ka test karte hue characterize hoti hai, jahan price ne 0.6140 area ke aas paas support dikhaya, jo pehle ek DLiq zone tha jo resistance se support mein badal gaya tha. Lekin 0.6240 ke upar move ko sustain na karne ki wajah se prevailing bearish sentiment ka pata chalta hai, jahan sellers abhi bhi market par dominance bana rahe hain.

**NZD/USD Technical Analysis**

Technically, NZD/USD currency pair 0.6250 level par resistance ka samna kar raha hai. Agar is position ko todne mein kamiyabi milti hai, to is se aage aur bhi faida ho sakta hai, jiske mumkinah targets 0.6300 aur 0.6368 hain. Lekin agar yeh pair 20-day EMA ke neeche chala jata hai, to isay 0.6172 par support ka samna karna par sakta hai. Is level ke neeche girne par sell-off shuru ho sakta hai, jiske possible targets 0.6120 aur 0.6020 hain. Aakhir mein, NZD/USD pair abhi US dollar ki taqat ki wajah se pressure mein hai. Fed ka rate-cutting cycle aur global economic conditions iski direction par asar daal rahe hain. Traders ko chuni hui halaton aur fundamental factors par nazar rakhni chahiye taake wo behtar faisle kar sakein. Geopolitical developments, jaise trade tensions ya geopolitical conflicts, bhi NZD/USD pair par asar daal sakte hain. Ye events liquidity create kar sakte hain aur currency market mein volatility barha sakte hain. In naye factors ko madde nazar rakh kar, traders NZD/USD pair ke chalan ko behtar samajh sakte hain aur informed trading decisions le sakte hain.

**Recent Market Activity**

Kal seller distraction nazar aana shuru hua, jab price Asian session mein negative move hui. Price jo Wednesday ke daily open se 0.6143 se shift hui, wo 0.6158 se neeche chali gayi. Sellers ne 0.6144 area ko successfully penetrate kiya aur price neeche chali gayi. Resistance tab nazar aaya jab price EMA 36 H1 area tak pahuncha, jo 0.6127 se 0.6132 ke aas-paas cross ho gaya. Kai martaba price ne is area ko penetrate karne ki koshish ki, lekin EMA 36 H1 ne short-term dynamic support ka role play kiya. Aakhir mein, price confirmed rejection ke baad upar mod gayi. Upar jane ki koshish karte hue, price sirf 0.6172 tak pahuncha aur market Wednesday ki trading par 0.6149 par close hui. EMA 200 H1 abhi bhi price movement ke neeche hai aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ke upar hone ke bawajood, inka behavior abhi tak bullish current ko indicate kar raha hai jo uptrend mein hai. Lekin, current buyer’s push kam hota nazar aa raha hai, lekin EMA 36 H1 abhi bhi ek rukawat hai. Filhal, price daily open Thursday 0.6149 se sabse nazdeek support aur resistance ke beech 0.6130 aur 0.6169 ke beech move kar raha hai, jabke EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 thodi narrow hoti ja rahi hain. Agar ye dono choti EMAs cross hoti hain, to ek naya direction dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Price ne retrace karte hue 0.6140 level ki taraf gira, liquidity gaps ko fill karte hue aur pehle ke support levels ko test karte hue. August ke akhir tak, price 0.6140 aur 0.6240 ke beech oscillate kar rahi thi, jo ek range-bound structure banata hai. Ye range upper aur lower bounds ke frequent tests se khas hai, jahan price ne 0.6140 area mein support paaya, jo pehle resistance se support mein badal gaya tha. Lekin 0.6240 ke upar move sustain na kar pana prevailing bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai, jahan sellers market par control bana rahe hain.

Chart se lagta hai ke price apni current range se break out karne mein muskil ka samna kar raha hai, jo ke sharp market movements ke baad consolidation phase ko reflect karta hai. Mid-August se, is pair ne ek rally dekhi, jisme price 0.5900 se upar uth kar 0.6240 area tak gaya, jahan ek significant deep liquidity (DLiq) zone se resistance ka samna hua. Yeh resistance, 0.6240 ke aas paas kai liquidity levels ki wajah se, upside ko cap kar diya, aur ek temporary consolidation period shuru hua Is phase ke dauran, price action ne higher lows ka silsila dikhaya, jo ke ongoing buying interest ko zahir karta hai . Lekin, resistance ko break na kar pana ye dikhata hai ke sellers active ho gaye hain, ya to profit le rahe hain ya short positions le rahe hain. Late August mein jab price 0.6260 level tak pohancha, to ek prominent FVG aur doosra DLiq zone se mazeed resistance ka samna hua. Is level ke upar momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ne ek turning point ko zahir kiya, aur NZD/USD pair ne apni pehle wali gains ko retrace karna shuru kar diya. Jab price ne retrace kiya, to yeh 0.6140 level tak gira, liquidity gaps ko fill kiya aur previous support levels ko test kiya. August ke end tak, price 0.6140 aur 0.6240 ke darmiyan oscillate karta raha, ek range-bound structure banata raha. Is range ko upper aur lower bounds ke frequent tests ne define kiya, jisme price ko 0.6140 ke aas paas support mila, jo ke pehle ek DLiq zone tha jo resistance se support mein flip ho gaya. Lekin, 0.6240 ke upar move ko sustain na kar pana bearish sentiment ko zahir karta hai, jisme sellers abhi bhi market pe dominate

chart ki technical analysis yeh zahir karti hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary ko test kar raha hai. Agar is channel se kamiyabi se breakout hota hai, to yeh jari uptrend ko kamzor kar sakta hai. Magar, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 level ke upar hai, jo ke bullish sentiment ko confirm karta hai. Is ke ilawa, nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 50-day EMA se upar hai, jo NZD/USD pair ke liye short-term mein mazid mazboot price trend ka ishara deta hai. Upside par, NZD/USD pair 0.6380 level ke qareeb ka ilaqa explore kar sakti hai, jo ascending channel ka upper boundary hai. Agar yeh upper boundary ka breakout hota hai, to yeh bullish bias ko mazid mazboot karega aur pair ko December 2023 mein record hue 15-month highs 0.6409 tak waapas le ja sakta hai. Support side par, EMA 0.6251 par hai. Agar is level se neeche ka break hota hai, to yeh bullish sentiment ko nuksaan pohcha sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day moving average 0.6156 ki taraf dhakel sakta hai, jahan se aage ja kar five-week low 0.6106 tak pohnch sakta hai. NZD/USD pair ne Wednesday ko mazid gains ko extend karte hue nine-month high 0.6354 ko chooa tha, magar phir halkay nuqsanat ka samna kiya. Pair August band se upar break kar gaya, aur December 2023 ke high 0.6368 par focus shift kiya. Magar, rally ke mutaliq slow hone ka imkaan hai, kyun ke RSI aur Stochastic se overbought signals aa rahe hain. Agar 0.6368 ke upar ek decisive close hota hai, to yeh ek naye upside wave ko trigger kar sakta hai jo recent decline ke 161.8% Fibonacci extension 0.6415 tak ja sakta hai. December 2022 aur February 2023 ke darmiyan, 0.6465 ka ilaqa kuch constraints pose kar sakta hai. Aage ja kar, bullish trend ko confirm karne ke liye ek mazeed upar ki move zaroori ho sakti hai. Haal hi mein, Fed ne char saal mein pehli dafa apni interest rate mein kami ka elan kiya, jis mein key borrowing rate ko 50 basis points se kam kiya gaya. Yeh qadam zyada accommodative monetary policy ki taraf ishara karta hai, lekin

Pichlay kuch sessions mein price ek range ke andar oscillate kar raha hai, magar jo momentum dekhne ko mil raha hai woh downside bias ko darshaata hai. Price ne haal hi mein 0.62500 ke qareeb ek liquidity zone ko reject kiya, jo ke Fair Value Gap (FVG) aur ek liquidity cluster ke sath align karta hai. Yeh rejection is baat ka saboot hai ke higher levels par strong selling pressure hai, jo kisi bhi significant recovery ko rok raha hai. Downside par liquidity sweeps (D-Liq), jo ke 0.61250 ke qareeb dekhi gayi, modest buyer interest se mil chuki hain. Magar in zones ka baar baar test hona yeh darshaata hai ke buyers ki taqat dheere dheere kamzor ho rahi hai, jo ke 0.61200 ke neeche breakdown ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai, toh price aur gir ke 0.61000 ka area target kar sakta hai, jo ke 2 Bottom Liquidity zone ke sath milta hai aur potential support provide karta hai. Agar price upar ki taraf retrace karta hai, toh 0.62000 ke aas-paas strong resistance ka saamna karega, jahan pehle liquidity grabs aur FVGs maujood hain. Is level ka break hona zaroori hoga taake pair ek bullish outlook ki taraf shift kar sake. Iske ilawa, chart par downside aur upside par multiple FVG zones mojood hain jo ke pivotal areas hain, jahan price imbalances volatility ka sabab ban sakti hain jab market participants liquidity ki talash mein hote hain. Akhir mein, NZD/USD pair ab bhi pressure mein hai, aur downside outlook tab tak qaim rahega jab tak price 0.62000 resistance se neeche hai. Agar 0.61250 ke neeche break hota hai, toh yeh 0.61000 aur is se neeche tak ka rasta khol sakta hai. Magar agar koi recovery attempt hoti hai, toh usay pehle strong resistance 0.62000 par cross karna hoga, phir uske baad higher liquidity zones ka target 0.62500 ke aas-paas hoga. Overall bias ab tak bearish hai jab tak lower liquidity zones ke qareeb significant buying pressure samne nahi aata. Non-linear regression channels (convex lines), jo ke qareebi mustaqbil ka forecast karti hain, golden line of the lower channel ko cross karti hain aur upward direction dikhati hain. Ek aur dalil jo buy entry ke haq mein hai, woh yeh ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators oversold zone mein hain, jo buy entry ko confirm karte hain. Price ne blue support line of the linear regression Channel 2 aur LevelSupLine ko cross kiya, lekin price minimum (LOW) tak pohnch ke apni girawat rokk di aur wapas upar aane laga. In tamam points ko dekhte huay, main expect karta hoon ke market price reversal karega aur 2-and LevelSupLine channel line ke upar consolidation hogas

rea tak gaya, jahan ek significant deep liquidity (DLiq) zone se resistance ka samna hua. Yeh resistance, 0.6240 ke aas paas kai liquidity levels ki wajah se, upside ko cap kar diya, aur ek temporary consolidation period shuru hua Is phase ke dauran, price action ne higher lows ka silsila dikhaya, jo ke ongoing buying interest ko zahir karta hai. Lekin, resistance ko break na kar pana ye dikhata hai ke sellers active ho gaye hain, ya to profit le rahe hain ya short positions le rahe hain. Late August mein jab price 0.6260 level tak pohancha, to ek prominent FVG aur doosra DLiq zone se mazeed resistance ka samna hua. Is level ke upar momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ne ek turning point ko zahir kiya, aur NZD/USD pair ne apni pehle wali gains ko retrace karna shuru kar diya. Jab price ne retrace kiya, to yeh 0.6140 level tak gira, liquidity gaps ko fill kiya aur previous support levels ko test kiya. August ke end tak, price 0.6140 aur 0.6240 ke darmiyan oscillate karta raha, ek range-bound structure banata raha. Is range ko upper aur lower bounds ke frequent tests ne define kiya, jisme price ko 0.6140 ke aas paas support mila, jo ke pehle ek DLiq zone tha jo resistance se support mein flip ho gaya. Lekin, 0.6240 ke upar move ko sustain na kar pana bearish sentiment ko zahir karta hai, jisme sellers abhi bhi market pe

NZD/USD currency pair ab ek **bearish scenario** dikhata hai, jahan price 0.6175 ke aas paas hai. Guzishta Jumay ke din bulls, jo pehle control mein the, apni momentum kho chuke hain, aur is shift ne bears, yaani sellers ko market mein upper hand de diya hai. Haali developments yeh signal deti hain ke investors ab NZD/USD ke liye ek bearish outlook ko asani se pehchan sakte hain. Bulls ki kamzori ne bears ki position mazboot kar di hai, jinhone ab 0.6175 ke price level par apni positions le li hain. Yeh movement yeh suggest karta hai ke overall market behavior ab bears ke haq mein hai, bulls ke muqable mein, aur is shift ka aagey market movements par potential asar ho sakta hai.
Bearish sentiment jo ab NZD/USD pair mein dekhne ko mil raha hai, yeh technical aur fundamental dono factors ka natija hai. Technical tor par, price ka 0.6175 ke key support level ke ooper sustain karne mein naakami, yeh mazid is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke market ka rujhan neeche ki taraf barqarar reh sakta hai. Support levels trading mein kaafi ahem hote hain, aur jab price action in levels ko break karta hai, toh yeh signal milta hai ke buyers, yaani bulls, ab price ko upar rakhne mein kamzor hain. Technical analysis bhi yeh dikhata hai ke price peechlay chand sessions mein gradual downtrend mein hai, aur Jumay ke din bulls ka momentum regain na kar pana, bears ka control aur mazboot kar raha hai. Sellers ne 0.6175 level par apni positions bana li hain, jo ab ek critical resistance point ke tor par kaam karega. Kisi bhi bullish reversal ke liye zaroori hoga ke price is resistance level ke ooper breakout kare, lekin abhi ke market conditions ke lehaz se yeh kam mumkin lagta hai.

Technical factors ke ilawa, fundamental aspects bhi NZD/USD pair ke bearish outlook ko support karte hain. New Zealand ki economy haali mein kuch challenges face kar rahi hai, jismein economic data expectations se kamzor aaya hai, jo New Zealand dollar (NZD) par pressure dal raha hai. Global risk sentiment bhi shift ho gaya hai, aur investors economic uncertainty ke dour mein safer assets ki taraf rujhan kar rahe hain, jo US dollar (USD) ko mazid mazboot kar raha hai. In economic conditions ne USD ko support diya hai, jisse NZD struggle kar raha hai.

Aagey chal kar, agar US Federal Reserve policy ko tight karta hai ya higher interest rates ka expectation hota hai, toh USD aur bhi mazboot ho sakta hai, jo NZD/USD pair par additional bearish pressure dalay ga. Doosri taraf, New Zealand ke economic indicators kisi khaas growth ka signal nahi de rahe, aur dono economies ke darmiyan yeh divergence NZD/USD ke bearish movement ko accelerate kar raha hai.

Traders ke liye yeh bearish scenario kai trading opportunities aur risks paida kar sakta hai. Jo traders downtrend se faida uthana chahte hain, wo 0.6175 ke resistance level ke aas paas short positions le sakte hain, jahan bears ne apna control mazid mazboot kar liya hai. Agar price neeche jati hai, toh agla significant support level 0.6100 ke aas paas ho sakta hai, jo bearish traders ke liye aagey ke targets provide kar sakta hai.



Lekin, jaise ke har trade mein hota hai, risk management bohot zaroori hai. Traders ko bullish reversals ka khatara hamesha madde nazar rakhna chahiye, khaaskar agar economic data ya policy mein koi unexpected shift aati hai. Stop losses set karna aur market developments ko closely monitor karna volatile environment mein apne risk ko control karne ka behtareen tareeqa hai.

Is NZD/USD ke liye bearish scenario, price 0.6175 par hone ke sath, yeh signal deta hai ke sellers market ka control sambhal chuke hain. Technical aur fundamental factors dono bears ke dominance ko support karte hain, jab ke bulls apni momentum kho chuke hain. Investors ko is baat ka khayal rakhna chahiye ke pair mein mazid decline ke chances hain, khaaskar jab market ke behaviors ab bears ke haq mein hain. Jab ke downtrend se faida uthana ek acha opportunity ho sakta hai, traders ko strong risk management strategies ko follow karna chahiye taake unexpected reversals ka khatara kam ho.