نیوزی لینڈ ڈالر اور امریکی ڈالر کی شرح تبادلہ

New Zealand ke inflation pressures pehli dafa 3.5 saal mein RBNZ ke target band mein wapas aa gaye hain. Markets ab is baat par guftagu kar rahi hain ke RBNZ late November mein 50 ya 75 basis points ka cut karega. NZD/USD ab familiar support levels ki taraf gir raha hai.

**Overview**
New Zealand ki consumer price inflation (CPI) September quarter mein 2021 ke shuruat se sabse neeche level par aa gayi, aur markets ka yeh khayal hai ke Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) November mein ek aur aham rate cut karega.

NZD/USD ab range ke lows par wapas aa gaya hai, jab ke ek aur key inflation indicator ka intezar hai. **Aakhir kar band mein**
Headline CPI quarter ke liye 0.6% barha aur saal ke liye 2.2% barha, jis se annual rate pehli dafa RBNZ ke 1-3% target band mein aa gaya hai.

Aham baat yeh hai ke saal dar saal ka izafa RBNZ ke August ke forecast se, jo ke 2.3% tha, ek dasamlo kam hai. Headline CPI mein kami phir se tradable prices ki wajah se hui, jo aam tor par global factors se mutasir hoti hain, aur yeh quarter-on-quarter 0.2% aur year-on-year 1.6% gir gayi, jo December 2020 quarter ke baad pehli dafa deflation ki taraf chali gayi.

Non-tradable prices, jo ke zyada tar domestic factors ko reflect karti hain, flat rahi, quarter ke liye 1.3% aur saal ke liye 4.9% barhi. Halankeh domestic inflationary pressures ka RBNZ target ki taraf wapas aana dheere hai, saal dar saal ka izafa teen saal mein sabse chhota hai.

Core inflationary pressures ke liye bhi achi khabar hai, jo quarter-on-quarter 1% aur year-on-year 3.1% barhi. Ab tawajjoh RBNZ ke core inflation ka pasandeeda measure - is ka sector factor model - par hogi, jo Wednesday ko Wellington waqt ke mutabiq 3 baje release kiya jayega.

NZD/USD ka jo pair hai, wo saat hafton ki neechey level par aa gaya hai, 0.6091 ko touch karte hue. Ye girawat 1 October se shuru hui aur abhi bhi barh rahi hai. New Zealand dollar ki kamzori ka sabab zyadatar Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ka faida kam karna hai, jo girti hui inflationary pressure ke jawab mein kiya gaya hai.
RBNZ ne musalsal rate cuts ka elaan kiya hai, jismein sab se aakhri 50 basis points ki cut thi jo key rate ko 4.75% per annum par le aayi. Yeh qadam inflation ko 1-3% ke target range mein rokne ke liye uthaya gaya hai, jab ke aanay wala consumer price data yeh dikha sakta hai ke inflation 2% ke aas-paas consolidate ho rahi hai, jo ke RBNZ ke targets ke mutabiq hai. Dunya bhar ka dhyaan US central bank ki aanewali meeting ke minutes par hai. Ye minutes isliye ahem hain ke yeh Fed ki aanewali monetary policy ke bare mein zaroori maloomat dete hain.
Market participants aksar is maloomat ka istemal karte hain taake andaza lagaya ja sake ke Fed mazeed rate adjustments karay ga ya nahi, jo ke currency markets ke dynamics ko mutasir karta hai. NZD/USD market apni expected downtrend target 0.6080 par pohnch gaya hai.
Ab umeed hai ke aik nai consolidation phase is level ke ooper banay gi. Agar is level ke upar breakout hota hai, toh aik corrective move 0.6230 tak aasakti hai. Iss correction ke baad, mazeed girawat 0.5944 tak ja sakti hai. Agar consolidation ka result neechey ki taraf hota hai, toh downtrend 0.5944 tak barh sakta hai. MACD indicator bhi bearish outlook ko support karta hai, jismein signal line zero ke neechey aur downtrend mein hai.
Hourly chart par, pair apne bearish trend target 0.6080 tak pohnch gaya, aur neechey exit hua jab consolidation zone 0.6126 par bana. Aaj ek move upar ki taraf 0.6126 tak hone ki umeed hai, us ke baad 0.6100 ka retest hoga. Market in levels par ek nai consolidation range develop kar sakta hai. Agar upar ka breakout hota hai, toh aik corrective move 0.6230 tak ho sakti hai, jo ke recent downtrend ka reaction hoga. Stochastic Oscillator, jis ki signal line 20 ke neechey aur upar ki taraf hai, yeh indication deta hai ke ek upward correction aa sakti hai.

**T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S**
**NZD/USD**

Sab ko namaste, subah bakhair! Aaj, main NZD/USD par apni trading analysis share karne ke liye excited hoon. NZD/USD abhi 0.6060 par trade kar raha hai. NZD/USD ka technical outlook bearish dikhai de raha hai. Agar hum is chart par istemal hone wale indicators par nazar dalen, toh Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 45 ke neeche hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator ka signal line ya slow line bhi zero line ya midline ke neeche hai. Is chart par indicators aage ke liye aur girawat ka support kar rahe hain. NZD/USD chart par 20-day exponential moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jabke 50-day exponential moving average bhi current NZD/USD se neeche hai. Ab tak, technical indicators NZD/USD ke neeche ki taraf movement ko support karte hain.

Meri analysis ke mutabiq, aaj market mein kuch behtareen positions hain. Agar NZD/USD support level 0.5978 ke neeche girta hai, toh NZD/USD aur kamzor hote hue 0.5849 ya 0.5345 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke 2nd aur 3rd level of support hain. Lekin agar is waqt NZD/USD upper level 0.6111 ko todta hai, toh NZD/USD ka agla target 0.6248 ya 0.6370 ho sakta hai, jo ke 2nd aur 3rd level of resistance hain. Abhi NZD/USD bechne ka mauqa kaafi acha hai.

Chart par istemal hone wale indicators hain:

1. **MACD Indicator**: Ye indicator market ke momentum aur trend reversals ko identify karne mein madad karta hai.

2. **RSI Indicator** (Period 14): Ye indicator market ki overbought ya oversold conditions ko dekhne mein madadgar hai. Is waqt ye 45 ke neeche hai, jo bearish momentum ko darshata hai.

3. **50-Day Exponential Moving Average**: Iska rang orange hai. Ye long-term trend ko dekhne ke liye istemal hota hai. Agar price is moving average ke neeche hai, toh ye bearish sentiment ko darshata hai.

4. **20-Day Exponential Moving Average**: Iska rang magenta hai. Ye short-term trend ko darshata hai aur price agar is moving average ke neeche hai, toh ye bhi bearish signal hota hai.

In sab indicators ke madad se, NZD/USD ki downward movement kaafi strong lagti hai. Isliye, traders ko chahiye ke wo is opportunity ko behtar tareeqe se istemal karein. Ab hamein dekhna hai ke market kaise react karta hai aur humein trading decisions lene mein kaise madad milti hai. Sahi waqt par positions lena hamesha zaroori hai, isliye trading karte waqt hamesha in indicators par nazar rakhna mat bhooliye ga.

New Zealand ki news data ne NZD/USD ke buyers ko recovery karne mein koi madad nahi di. Pura din price 0.6080 se 0.6110 ke range mein rahi. Is hafte FOMC Member Valler ke do speeches bhi honay wale hain. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve ka wo shakhsh hai jo financial policy tay karta hai, aur iske members ke speeches se aane wale policy decisions ka andaza lagaya ja sakta hai. Valler ke speeches khaas ahmiyat rakhte hain, kyunki yeh Fed ki abadi ma’ashiyat ke halat aur interest rates ke plans par roshni dal sakte hain.

Traders aksar in speeches par tawajjo dete hain, kyunki koi bhi hints jo future policy changes ki taraf ishara karte hain, woh market sentiment aur US dollar ki value par bohat zyada asar daal sakte hain. Agar Valler yeh keh dete hain ke Fed interest rates ko barhata rahega, toh US dollar mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, kyunki unki soorat mein investors ke liye currency zyada attractive ban jaati hai. Lekin agar Valler yeh darshate hain ke Fed kuch thoda pacifist approach ikhtiyar karega, toh dollar kamzor ho sakta hai.

Mujhe umeed hai ke US severance rate aur Philly Fed manufacturing indicator NZD/USD buyers ko aage aane wale waqt mein madad denge. Iske ilawa, US Core Retail Sales data ka release bhi bohat ahmiyat rakhta hai. Retail sales consumer spending ka ek ahem index hai, jo US ma’ashiyat ka ek bara hissa drive karta hai.

Core retail sales figure mein aise items shamil nahi hote jo unpredictable hain, jese ke gaadiyan aur energy, jo ke consumer demand ka ek saaf picture dete hain. Ek strong retail sales report aam tor par US dollar ko barhawa deti hai, kyunki yeh darshata hai ke consumers confident hain aur zyada kharch kar rahe hain, jo ke ma’ashi growth ko support karta hai.

Lekin agar retail sales report kamzor rahi, toh yeh is taraf ishara kar sakta hai ke consumers apne kharchon mein kami kar rahe hain, jo currency par asar daal sakta hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke NZD/USD ka price resistance zone 0.6145 ko aaj ya agle din cross karega. Yeh sab factors traders ke liye nazar rakhne ke liye bohat zaroori hain, taake wo behtar trading decisions le sakein.

NZD/USD currency pair filhal upar ki taraf trend dikhata hua nazar aa raha hai, aur ek key resistance level jo dekhna zaroori hai, wo 0.61764 hai. Agar price is level se upar nikalti hai, to traders aur investors ke liye agla bada target 0.62787 hoga. Yeh price level khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai kyun ke yeh ek higher resistance ko darshata hai, jo current bullish move ke liye peak ban sakta hai. Is resistance ko todne ka matlab hoga ke NZD/USD momentum gain kar raha hai, jo short-term aur long-term traders ke liye ahm asraat rakh sakta hai. 0.62087 level tak pohanchna current bullish momentum ki taqat ko confirm karega. Is point par breakthrough sirf uptrend ki continuation ka signal nahi dega, balki yeh bulls ke haq mein ek broader trend shift ki nishani bhi ho sakta hai. Traders iske liye nazar rakh rahe hain ke koi sustained strength ki nishani milti hai ya nahi, kyunki yeh agle dinon ya hafton mein mazeed upward movement ki taraf le ja sakti hai. Agar 0.62087 ke upar break hota hai, to market participants ka naya interest is taraf aa sakta hai jo ek strong bullish reversal ki confirmation ka intezar kar rahe hain.

NZD/USD pair ki is potential rise ka ek aham sabab New Zealand ki economy ka outlook aur Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ki karwaiyan hain. RBNZ ke monetary policy decisions NZD ki taqat par gehra asar daal sakte hain. Haal hi mein, RBNZ ke stance ke bare mein optimism hai, kyun ke central bank ne inflation ko manage karne aur economic growth ko stimulate karne ke liye kuch kadam uthaye hain. Agar RBNZ ka policy decision favorable hota hai, jaise ke interest rates ko barqarar rakhna ya badhana, to yeh NZD ko mazeed mazboot kar sakta hai, jo NZD/USD pair ke bullish outlook ko support karega.

Is ke ilawa, US Dollar (USD) ki relative kamzori bhi NZD/USD pair ke bullish momentum ko barhane mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hai. US Federal Reserve apne interest rate hikes ke approach mein ehtiyaat se kaam le raha hai, aur jab ke inflation ek concern hai, kuch nishaniyan hain ke Fed shayad mustaqbil mein moderate approach apnaaye. Agar USD kamzor hota raha, to yeh NZD ko appreciate hone ka zyada mauqa dega.

Traders ke liye, 0.62787 level ek critical point mana jata hai, kyun ke yeh sirf short-term resistance nahi balki current bullish cycle ka potential peak bhi hai. Agar price is level tak pohanchti hai ya isay paar kar leti hai, to yeh zyada sustained upward movement ka signal ban sakta hai, aur long-term gains ki bhi sambhavna rakh sakta hai. Lekin, yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke yeh level ek strong resistance bhi ban sakta hai, jiska matlab hai ke NZD/USD isay todne mein struggle kar sakta hai bina significant bullish pressure ya supportive fundamentals ke

USD currency pair ka. Kal ka koshish karna ke qeemat ko kam kiya jaye kaamyaab raha, qeemat kaafi zyada gir gayi, lekin aaj phir se kuch barhawa dekhne ko mil raha hai. Kal ka girawat bhi market mein US dollar ki mazid mazbooti ki wajah se thi. Wave structure abhi tak upar ki taraf bana hua hai, MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke ooper hai. MACD indicator par bearish divergence hai - ek mazboot sell signal. CCI indicator bhi upper overheating zone se niche ki taraf ja raha hai aur us par bhi bearish divergence hai. Kal ka candle puri tarah se pechlay barhnay walay candle ko cover kar gaya aur is tarah ek candlestick pattern bana - bearish engulfing. Ye sell signals ki tasdeeq hai. In sab ke ilawa, qeemat ne ek khubsurat ascending wedge banayi hai - jo ke ek decline figure hai. Chahay trend upar ki taraf hai, magar halat ko dekh kar lagta hai ke aglay chand dinon mein qeemat phir se niche ki taraf dabao mein aayegi, un ascending lines tak jo purani daily waves ke bottoms par bani hain. Aur raat bhar ka jo barhawa hai, uski wajah horizontal support level 0.6257 hai. Mera khayal hai ke humein chhote period mein growth ka end track karna chahiye, wahan koi sell formation dhoondhna chahiye aur niche ki taraf kaam karna chahiye. Aaj ka important news package Moscow time ke mutabiq 15:30 par aayega: US mein unemployment benefits lene walon ki kul tadaad, US mein core orders for durable goods, US ka core price index of personal consumption expenditures, US ka volume of orders for durable goods, US ka gross domestic product (GDP), US ka GDP deflator, aur US mein unemployment benefits ki initial applications ka number. 16:20 par US Federal Reserve ke head Jerome Powell ka khitaab hoga Agar NZD/USD 0.61500 ke support level ke niche break karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to agay aur girawat ki umeed ki ja sakti hai, aur psychological level 0.61000 tak qeemat ja sakti hai, jahan agla significant liquidity zone majood hai. Ye sellers ke liye rasta khol sakta hai ke qeemat ko aur neeche le jayein, khaaskar jab market mein koi immediate upside catalyst nazar nahi aa raha. Doosri taraf, agar koi upside recovery hoti hai to usay 0.62500-0.63000 ke aas paas ke resistance zone par rukawat ka samna hoga, jo pehle se hi sellers ka interest dikha chuka hai aur bullish retracement ki koshish ko rokne wala hai. Kul mila kar sentiment bearish hi hai, aur mazeed downside pressure ka imkaan hai jab sellers market structure ko dominate karte rahenge Akhir mein, NZD/USD abhi ek critical support zone 0.61500 ke aas paas test kar raha hai. Agar ye level break hota hai to bearish move tezi se aage barh sakta hai, jabke koi bhi bullish koshish ko 0.62500-0.63000 ke range mein resistance ka samna karna parega, aur overall bearish outlook barqarar raClick image for larger version

technical analysis se pata chalta hai ke bearish momentum ne MA 50 aur MA 100 levels ko break kar liya hai. Trader ki umeedein puri ho rahi hain, aur wo is pair par sell trades ka silsila jaari rakhtay huay mazeed gains ki tawakko rakhtay hain. Forecasting tools ka istimaal aur ready-made analyses ka mutaala karne se trader ko apne trading decisions mein yaqeen mila hai. Trader ne NZD/USD ke price movement ka tajziya karne ke liye Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator ka istimaal kiya hai, jo kai indicators aur approaches ko combine karta hai. Yeh indicator 70-85% cases mein profitable trades ka nateeja deta hai, jo trading ke environment mein ek kaafi achi success rate hai. Resistance 0.6259 par nazar rakhne ke ilawa, traders ko technical indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Averages (MA) ko bhi dekhte rehna chahiye. RSI valuable insights de sakta hai ke pair overbought ya oversold hai, jo ke ek potential reversal ya trend ke continuation ki nishandahi kar sakta hai. Wahi, H1 chart par 50-period aur 200-period Moving Averages key trends ko pehchaanne mein madad kar sakti hain, jahan in averages ke darmiyan crossover momentum mein ek potential shift ko signal kar sakta hai.Yeh bhi yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke external factors jaise ke New Zealand ya U.S. se aane wale economic data releases NZD/USD pair ke direction par aham asar daal sakte hain. Dono mulkon se aane wale inflation, interest rates, ya trade balances ke updates market sentiment ko mutasir kar sakti hain aur mazid price movements ko trigger kar sakti hain.Haalankeh NZD/USD pair ko 0.6259 resistance ko break na karne ke baad ek temporary setback ka samna karna pada, lekin is level ke ird gird aane wala price action intehai ahem hoga. Agar resistance successfully break ho gaya, to pair ke mazeed oopar jaane ka imkaan hai, lekin agar yeh resistance mazboot raha, to bearish pressure pair ko niche support levels

, qeemat kaafi zyada gir gayi, lekin aaj phir se kuch barhawa dekhne ko mil raha hai. Kal ka girawat bhi market mein US dollar ki mazid mazbooti ki wajah se thi. Wave structure abhi tak upar ki taraf bana hua hai, MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke ooper hai. MACD indicator par bearish divergence hai - ek mazboot sell signal. CCI indicator bhi upper overheating zone se niche ki taraf ja raha hai aur us par bhi bearish divergence hai. Kal ka candle puri tarah se pechlay barhnay walay candle ko cover kar gaya aur is tarah ek candlestick pattern bana - bearish engulfing. Ye sell signals ki tasdeeq hai. In sab ke ilawa, qeemat ne ek khubsurat ascending wedge banayi hai - jo ke ek decline figure hai. Chahay trend upar ki taraf hai, magar halat ko dekh kar lagta hai ke aglay chand dinon mein qeemat phir se niche ki taraf dabao mein aayegi, un ascending lines tak jo purani daily waves ke bottoms par bani hain. Aur raat bhar ka jo barhawa hai, uski wajah horizontal support level 0.6257 hai. Mera khayal hai ke humein chhote period mein growth ka end track karna chahiye, wahan koi sell formation dhoondhna chahiye aur niche ki taraf kaam karna chahiye. Aaj ka important news package Moscow time ke mutabiq 15:30 par aayega: US mein unemployment benefits lene walon ki kul tadaad, US mein core orders for durable goods, US ka core price index of personal consumption expenditures, US ka volume of orders for durable goods, US ka gross domestic product (GDP), US ka GDP deflator, aur US mein unemployment benefits ki initial applications ka number. 16:20 par US Federal Reserve ke head Jerome Powell ka khitaab hoga Agar NZD/USD 0.61500 ke support level ke niche break karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to agay aur girawat ki umeed ki ja sakti hai, aur psychological level 0.61000 tak qeemat ja sakti hai, jahan agla significant liquidity zone majood hai. Ye sellers ke liye rasta khol sakta hai ke qeemat ko aur neeche le jayein, khaaskar jab market mein koi immediate upside catalyst nazar nahi aa raha. Doosri taraf, agar koi upside recovery hoti hai to usay 0.62500-0.63000 ke aas paas ke resistance zone par rukawat ka samna hoga, jo pehle se hi sellers ka interest dikha chuka hai aur bullish retracement ki koshish ko rokne wala hai. Kul mila kar sentiment bearish hi hai, aur mazeed downside pressure ka imkaan hai jab sellers market structure ko dominate karte rahenge Akhir mein, NZD/USD abhi ek critical support zone 0.61500 ke aas paas test kar raha hai. Agar ye level break hota hai to bearish move tezi se aage barh sakta hai, jabke koi bhi bullish koshish ko 0.62500-0.63000 ke range mein resistance ka samna karna parega, aur overall bearish outlook barqarar raClick image for larger

+*T E C H N I C A L _ A N A L Y S I S#
**NZD/USD**

Sab ko namaste, subah bakhair! Aaj, main NZD/USD par apni trading analysis share karne ke liye excited hoon. NZD/USD abhi 0.6060 par trade kar raha hai. NZD/USD ka technical outlook bearish dikhai de raha hai. Agar hum is chart par istemal hone wale indicators par nazar dalen, toh Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 45 ke neeche hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator ka signal line ya slow line bhi zero line ya midline ke neeche hai. Is chart par indicators aage ke liye aur girawat ka support kar rahe hain. NZD/USD chart par 20-day exponential moving average ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jabke 50-day exponential moving average bhi current NZD/USD se neeche hai. Ab tak, technical indicators NZD/USD ke neeche ki taraf movement ko support karte hain.

Meri analysis ke mutabiq, aaj market mein kuch behtareen positions hain. Agar NZD/USD support level 0.5978 ke neeche girta hai, toh NZD/USD aur kamzor hote hue 0.5849 ya 0.5345 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke 2nd aur 3rd level of support hain. Lekin agar is waqt NZD/USD upper level 0.6111 ko todta hai, toh NZD/USD ka agla target 0.6248 ya 0.6370 ho sakta hai, jo ke 2nd aur 3rd level of resistance hain. Abhi NZD/USD bechne ka mauqa kaafi acha hai.

Chart par istemal hone wale indicators hain:

1. **MACD Indicator**: Ye indicator market ke momentum aur trend reversals ko identify karne mein madad karta hai.

2. **RSI Indicator** (Period 14): Ye indicator market ki overbought ya oversold conditions ko dekhne mein madadgar hai. Is waqt ye 45 ke neeche hai, jo bearish momentum ko darshata hai.

3. **50-Day Exponential Moving Average**: Iska rang orange hai. Ye long-term trend ko dekhne ke liye istemal hota hai. Agar price is moving average ke neeche hai, toh ye bearish sentiment ko darshata hai.

4. **20-Day Exponential Moving Average**: Iska rang magenta hai. Ye short-term trend ko darshata hai aur price agar is moving average ke neeche hai, toh ye bhi bearish signal hota hai.

In sab indicators ke madad se, NZD/USD ki downward movement kaafi strong lagti hai. Isliye, traders ko chahiye ke wo is opportunity ko behtar tareeqe se istemal karein. Ab hamein dekhna hai ke market kaise react karta hai aur humein trading decisions lene mein kaise madad milti hai. Sahi waqt par positions lena hamesha zaroori hai, isliye trading karte waqt hamesha in indicators par nazar rakhna mat bhooliye ga.

NZD/USD pair Tuesday ke New York session mein significant selling pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Yeh pressure 0.6350 ke key resistance level ke upar dekhne ko mila aur ab yeh 0.6300 ke crucial support level ke qareeb hai. Kiwi asset kamzor ho gaya hai jab ke US Dollar ne apna haftay ka tazah high banaya hai. Investors ab ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain kyun ke United States (US) ke economic data ka intezar kiya ja raha hai jo Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate outlook ko asar andaz kar sakta hai.
Aaj ke session mein, traders ka focus September ke liye US ISM Manufacturing PMI aur August ke liye JOLTS Job Openings data par hoga, jo 14:00 GMT par shaya kiya jayega. ISM Manufacturing PMI ka andaaza lagaya gaya hai ke yeh thoda behtar ho kar 47.5 tak barh jaye ga, jo pehle August mein 47.2 tha. Magar yeh phir bhi factory sector mein kamzori ka ishara deta hai. Jis tarah July mein dekha gaya tha, Job Openings ke bhi musalsal rahe ne ka imkaan hai aur yeh 7.67 million tak barh sakta hai.
Is week ke akhir mein US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, aur Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data bhi focus mein rahenge. Yeh sab data markets ke liye ahem hai kyun ke yeh US economy ki health aur Federal Reserve ke future interest rate decisions par asar daal sakte hain.
Agar data U.S. economic growth aur labor market ke bare mein positive indications deta hai, toh US Dollar mazeed taqatwar ho sakta hai, jo NZD/USD pair ko mazid neeche dhakel sakta hai. Magar, agar data umeed se kamzor hota hai, toh yeh Kiwi dollar ke liye kuch relief faraham kar sakta hai, aur NZD/USD pair dobara resistance levels ke qareeb wapas aa sakta hai.
NZD/USD pair ne halia trading sessions mein positive trajectory dikhai hai, jo zyada tar expectations ki wajah se hai ke Federal Reserve apni policy mein thodi dovish rahegi. Magar, upward momentum apni jagah pe mukammal nahi hai kyunke US aur New Zealand ke economic uncertainties in gains ko kum kar sakti hain. Market mein Federal Reserve ke September mein rate cut ke mutaliq baat chal rahi hai, jo ke 25 basis points se zyada ho sakta hai, aur ye expectation New Zealand dollar ke liye ek khaas faida ban gayi hai.
Recent US job growth mein girawat ke baad, yeh baat aur bhi mazid tasleem ho gayi hai. Jabke retail sales data mein contraction dekhne ko mila, is ne New Zealand economy ke hawalay se zyada nuksaan nahi pohchaya. Magar US recession ke potential concerns aur China ki economic challenges ne ek risk-averse environment bana diya hai, jo ke risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar ke liye negative asar la sakti hai.

NZD/USD currency pair ke liye, meri entry point 0.63474 hai. Main intezar karunga jab tak price trading channel ke lower part tak nahi aati, jo ke 0.63474 ke level ke aas paas hai. Jab price is level tak pahunchti hai, to main buying opportunity dekhna shuru karunga, jiska goal upper level 0.63916 tak pahunchna hai. Yeh strategy mujhe lower channel boundary ke paas support level tak pahunchne ke baad expected upward movement ka faida uthane ka mauka deti hai.
Is approach ka reasoning price action ke concept par mabni hai, jo trading channel ke andar hota hai. Jab ek currency pair defined channel ke andar trade karta hai, to prices aam tor par lower aur upper boundaries ke beech fluctuate karte hain. Lower edge support ki tarah kaam karta hai, jabke upper edge resistance ke liye hota hai. Main 0.63474 ke paas lower boundary ke aas paas trade enter karne ka irada rakhta hoon, taake potential upward movement ko capture kar sakun jo resistance level 0.63916 ki taraf ja rahi hai.

Yeh zaroori hai ke main lower boundary ke paas price action ko dhyan se monitor karun taake confirm kar sakun ke yeh level support ke tor par kaam kar raha hai pehle trade enter karne se. Isme bullish reversal signals dekhne ki koshish shamil hogi, jaise ke candlestick patterns ya technical indicators jaise moving averages ya RSI (Relative Strength Index), jo yeh indicate kar sakte hain ke price upar ki taraf bounce hone ke liye tayyar hai.

Jahan tak selling ka taluq hai, main upper edge ke paas action lene ki koshish karunga. Jab price channel ke upper boundary tak pahunchti hai, to yeh aam tor par resistance ka samna karti hai aur decline shuru kar sakti hai. Isliye, yeh level potential opportunity hai short position lene ya existing long position se profits lene ke liye. Key level jo selling ke liye dekhna hai, wo upper target 0.63916 ke aas paas hai. Is darmiyan, main sabr karunga aur kisi bhi kharidari se pehle correction ka intezar karunga. Jaldi kisi trade mein jump karne se nafrat shuda entry points aur barhte hue risk ka samna karna pad sakta hai. Price ka apne desired entry level 0.63474 tak neeche aane ka intezar karne se risk-to-reward ratio behtar ho jayega aur successful trade ke chances barh jayenge. Khulasah ye hai ke main 0.63474 ke support level ke aas paas buy position enter karne par focus karunga, jiska target upper level 0.63916 hai. Selling opportunities ko channel ke upper boundary ke aas paas dekhunga, aur kisi bhi trade mein enter karne se pehle price correction ka intezar karna padega. Yeh strategy risk ko manage karne mein madad karegi jab ke trading channel ke andar potential gains ko maximize karegi.

New Zealand ki news data ne NZD/USD ke buyers ko recovery karne mein koi madad nahi di. Pura din price 0.6080 se 0.6110 ke range mein rahi. Is hafte FOMC Member Valler ke do speeches bhi honay wale hain. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve ka wo shakhsh hai jo financial policy tay karta hai, aur iske members ke speeches se aane wale policy decisions ka andaza lagaya ja sakta hai. Valler ke speeches khaas ahmiyat rakhte hain, kyunki yeh Fed ki abadi ma’ashiyat ke halat aur interest rates ke plans par roshni dal sakte hain.

Traders aksar in speeches par tawajjo dete hain, kyunki koi bhi hints jo future policy changes ki taraf ishara karte hain, woh market sentiment aur US dollar ki value par bohat zyada asar daal sakte hain. Agar Valler yeh keh dete hain ke Fed interest rates ko barhata rahega, toh US dollar mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, kyunki unki soorat mein investors ke liye currency zyada attractive ban jaati hai. Lekin agar Valler yeh darshate hain ke Fed kuch thoda pacifist approach ikhtiyar karega, toh dollar kamzor ho sakta hai.

Mujhe umeed hai ke US severance rate aur Philly Fed manufacturing indicator NZD/USD buyers ko aage aane wale waqt mein madad denge. Iske ilawa, US Core Retail Sales data ka release bhi bohat ahmiyat rakhta hai. Retail sales consumer spending ka ek ahem index hai, jo US ma’ashiyat ka ek bara hissa drive karta hai.

Core retail sales figure mein aise items shamil nahi hote jo unpredictable hain, jese ke gaadiyan aur energy, jo ke consumer demand ka ek saaf picture dete hain. Ek strong retail sales report aam tor par US dollar ko barhawa deti hai, kyunki yeh darshata hai ke consumers confident hain aur zyada kharch kar rahe hain, jo ke ma’ashi growth ko support karta hai.

Lekin agar retail sales report kamzor rahi, toh yeh is taraf ishara kar sakta hai ke consumers apne kharchon mein kami kar rahe hain, jo currency par asar daal sakta hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke NZD/USD ka price resistance zone 0.6145 ko aaj ya agle din cross karega. Yeh sab factors traders ke liye nazar rakhne ke liye bohat zaroori hain, taake wo behtar trading decisions le sakein

New Zealand ki news data ne NZD/USD ke buyers ko recovery karne mein koi madad nahi di. Pura din price 0.6080 se 0.6110 ke range mein rahi. Is hafte FOMC Member Valler ke do speeches bhi honay wale hain. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Reserve ka wo shakhsh hai jo financial policy tay karta hai, aur iske members ke speeches se aane wale policy decisions ka andaza lagaya ja sakta hai. Valler ke speeches khaas ahmiyat rakhte hain, kyunki yeh Fed ki abadi ma’ashiyat ke halat aur interest rates ke plans par roshni dal sakte hain.

Traders aksar in speeches par tawajjo dete hain, kyunki koi bhi hints jo future policy changes ki taraf ishara karte hain, woh market sentiment aur US dollar ki value par bohat zyada asar daal sakte hain. Agar Valler yeh keh dete hain ke Fed interest rates ko barhata rahega, toh US dollar mazid mazboot ho sakta hai, kyunki unki soorat mein investors ke liye currency zyada attractive ban jaati hai. Lekin agar Valler yeh darshate hain ke Fed kuch thoda pacifist approach ikhtiyar karega, toh dollar kamzor ho sakta hai.

Mujhe umeed hai ke US severance rate aur Philly Fed manufacturing indicator NZD/USD buyers ko aage aane wale waqt mein madad denge. Iske ilawa, US Core Retail Sales data ka release bhi bohat ahmiyat rakhta hai. Retail sales consumer spending ka ek ahem index hai, jo US ma’ashiyat ka ek bara hissa drive karta hai.

Core retail sales figure mein aise items shamil nahi hote jo unpredictable hain, jese ke gaadiyan aur energy, jo ke consumer demand ka ek saaf picture dete hain. Ek strong retail sales report aam tor par US dollar ko barhawa deti hai, kyunki yeh darshata hai ke consumers confident hain aur zyada kharch kar rahe hain, jo ke ma’ashi growth ko support karta hai.

Lekin agar retail sales report kamzor rahi, toh yeh is taraf ishara kar sakta hai ke consumers apne kharchon mein kami kar rahe hain, jo currency par asar daal sakta hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke NZD/USD ka price resistance zone 0.6145 ko aaj ya agle din cross karega. Yeh sab factors traders ke liye nazar rakhne ke liye bohat zaroori hain, taake wo behtar trading decisions le sakein.

pressure hai, jo kisi bhi significant recovery ko rok raha hai. Downside par liquidity sweeps (D-Liq), jo ke 0.61250 ke qareeb dekhi gayi, modest buyer interest se mil chuki hain. Magar in zones ka baar baar test hona yeh darshaata hai ke buyers ki taqat dheere dheere kamzor ho rahi hai, jo ke 0.61200 ke neeche breakdown ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar aisa hota hai, toh price aur gir ke 0.61000 ka area target kar sakta hai, jo ke 2 Bottom Liquidity zone ke sath milta hai aur potential support provide karta hai. Agar price upar ki taraf retrace karta hai, toh 0.62000 ke aas-paas strong resistance ka saamna karega, jahan pehle liquidity grabs aur FVGs maujood hain. Is level ka break hona zaroori hoga taake pair ek bullish outlook ki taraf shift kar sake. Iske ilawa, chart par downside aur upside par multiple FVG zones mojood hain jo ke pivotal areas hain, jahan price imbalances volatility ka sabab ban sakti hain jab market participants liquidity ki talash mein hote hain. Akhir mein, NZD/USD pair ab bhi pressure mein hai, aur downside outlook tab tak qaim rahega jab tak price 0.62000 resistance se neeche hai. Agar 0.61250 ke neeche break hota hai, toh yeh 0.61000 aur is se neeche tak ka rasta khol sakta hai. Magar agar koi recovery attempt hoti hai, toh usay pehle strong resistance 0.62000 par cross karna hoga, phir uske baad higher liquidity zones ka target 0.62500 ke aas-paas hoga. Overall bias ab tak bearish hai jab tak lower liquidity zones ke qareeb significant buying pressure samne nahi aata. Non-linear regression channels (convex lines), jo ke qareebi mustaqbil ka forecast karti hain, golden line of the lower channel ko cross karti hain aur upward direction dikhati hain. Ek aur dalil jo buy entry ke haq mein hai, woh yeh ke RSI (14) aur MACD indicators oversold zone mein hain, jo buy entry ko confirm karte hain. Price ne blue support line of the linear regression Channel 2 aur LevelSupLine ko cross kiya, lekin price minimum (LOW) tak pohnch ke apni girawat rokk di aur wapas upar aane laga. In tamam points ko dekhte

NZD/USD currency pair abhi ek upward trend dikhane laga hai, aur ek ahem resistance level jo dekhne ke laayak hai woh hai 0.61764. Agar price is level se upar chale jati hai, to agla bara target traders aur investors ke liye 0.62787 hoga. Yeh price level khaas ahmiyat rakhta hai kyunke yeh ek higher resistance hai jo current bullish move ke liye peak ka kaam kar sakta hai. Agar price is resistance ko break karta hai, to yeh is baat ka indication hoga ke NZD/USD mein mazeed momentum aa raha hai, jo short-term aur long-term traders dono ke liye kaafi ahem implications la sakta hai.

0.62087 level tak pohanchna yeh confirm karega ke ab ka bullish momentum kaafi strong hai. Is point par breakthrough ka sirf yeh matlab nahi hoga ke uptrend continue hoga, balke yeh bhi indicate kar sakta hai ke broader trend ab bulls ke haq mein shift ho raha hai. Traders ghor se dekh rahe honge ke kya koi signs hain jo sustained strength ka pata den, kyunke yeh aage ke dino ya hafto mein mazeed upward movement ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar price 0.62087 ke upar break karta hai, to market participants jo ek strong confirmation ka intezaar kar rahe thay, woh dobara interested ho sakte hain aur is bullish reversal ka faida utha sakte hain.

Is potential rise ke peechay jo main drivers hain unmein New Zealand ki economy ka outlook aur Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) ki policy decisions kaafi ahem hain. RBNZ ki monetary policy ka NZD ki strength par bara asar hoga. Hal hi mein, RBNZ ke stance ke hawale se optimism dikhai de raha hai, kyunke central bank ne inflation manage karne aur economic growth ko stimulate karne ke liye kuch qadam uthaye hain. Agar RBNZ koi favorable policy decision karta hai, jaise ke interest rates ko maintain ya barhata hai, to yeh NZD ko mazeed mazboot kar sakta hai, jo NZD/USD ke bullish outlook ko support karega.

Is ke ilawa, U.S. Dollar (USD) ki relative weakness bhi NZD/USD pair ke bullish momentum ko support kar sakti hai. U.S. Federal Reserve ne interest rate hikes ke hawale se ehtiyaat se kaam liya hai, aur jabke inflation abhi bhi ek concern hai, kuch signs hain ke Fed aage chal kar thoda moderate approach apna sakta hai. Yeh USD ko kamzor kar sakta hai, jo NZD ke liye mazeed appreciation ka raasta khol sakta hai. Agar USD mazeed soften hota hai, to yeh NZD/USD pair ke liye mazeed support ka sabab ban sakta hai, jise 0.62787 level ke qareeb push kar sakta hai.

Traders ke liye, 0.62787 level ko ek critical point maana ja raha hai, kyunke yeh sirf ek short-term resistance nahi balke current bullish cycle mein ek potential peak bhi ho sakta hai. Agar price is level tak ya is se upar pahunch jata hai, to yeh signal de sakta hai ke ek zyada sustainable upward movement ho sakti hai, jisme long-term mein aur gains ka imkaan hai. Lekin yeh bhi zaroori hai ke yeh yaad rakhein ke yeh level ek strong resistance ke tor par bhi kaam kar sakta hai, iska matlab hai ke NZD/USD is level ko break karne mein mushkil ka samna kar sakta hai agar significant bullish pressure ya supportive fundamentals nahi milte.