usd/cad

Aaj ke market mein economic data releases ki kami ki wajah se sukoon rehne ki umeed hai. Agar aap economic calendar dekhain, to sirf Canadian inflation data 19:30 WIB par release hogi. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke Canada ka monthly inflation trend downwards hai, is liye market ko lagta hai ke BoC central bank September aur October mein interest rates kam kar sakta hai. Aise data par traders aam tor par zyada react karte hain. Jabke Wednesday ko economic data phir se nahi aayegi, to traders ko sideways movement ka khayal rakhna chahiye, lekin bade price range ke saath.

USDX ki weekly movement ko dekhte hue, lagta hai ke price quote Red EMA200 ki dynamic support ke qareeb aa rahi hai. Pichli baar jab price is level ko touch hui thi, to positive reaction dekha gaya tha aur USDX ne sharp rise kiya tha. Aaj bhi yeh wahi cheez ho sakti hai, agar price 101.60 - 101.40 area mein aati hai, to trend reversal ka potential hai. Lekin traders ko is halat ko ghante ghante monitor karna padega, kyunke agar buyers se positive reaction nahi mila, to USDX quote psychological level 100.00 tak gir sakti hai.

USDCAD ki daily basis par bhi Red EMA200 ke dynamic support area mein hai. EMA200 ka position Lower Bollingerbands line par hai, jo ke technically bohot strong support hai aur sellers ke liye asaan nahi hota penetrate karna. Is ke ilawa, USDCAD ki movement ne 1.3945 se 1.3630 tak bada girawat dekha hai, isliye rebound ka potential bearish trend ke jaari rehne se zyada hai. Lekin buyers ke liye trend direction ko badalna asaan nahi hai, halanke H4 timeframe par market ne bullish divergence signal diya hai due to oversold symptoms.

Agar H4 par bullish divergence ki wajah se trend reversal ki umeed hai, to price ko significant support level 1.3590 - 1.3604 ke upar close karna hoga. Yeh level buy entry ke liye effective hai, kyunki stop loss limit minimal hai. Canadian economic data, khaaskar inflation aur interest rates ke negative impact ki wajah se, CAD general weakening dekhega aur is ka asar USDCAD currency pair par bhi hoga, jo ke phir se rise karega.

USD/CAD pair ne Thursday ki subah ke Asian session ke dauran thodi si girawat dekhi aur yeh 1.3755 ke aas-paas trade hui. Is girawat ka wajeh kai market dynamics hain. Sab se pehle, Bank of Canada (BoC) ne apni fikr ka izhaar kiya ke 2025 aur 2026 mein consumer spending shayad khaas nahi hogi, jo ke economic headwinds ka ishara hai. Iske ilawa, BoC ne labor market mein dheemi growth aur working-age population mein job creation mein kami ka zikar bhi kiya, jo ke mixed economic outlook ko wazeh karta hai.
Investors ghore se weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezar kar rahe hain taake US employment market ke hawale se koi ishara mil sake. Agar jobless claims mein izafa hota hai to yeh labor market ke kamzor hone ka ishara de sakta hai, jo USD ki strength ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Federal Reserve ke further interest rate actions bhi ahem kirdar ada karte hain. Market mein umeed hai ke aur aggressive rate cuts honge, jo near term mein US dollar ke upside ko limit kar sakte hain.

Geopolitical tensions, khaaskar Middle East mein, aur US crude oil inventories ke girne se oil prices mein izafa hua hai. Canada ek bara oil exporter hai, isliye oil prices mein izafa aksar Canadian dollar ko support karta hai, jo ke USD/CAD pair ki softness ka ek aur wajah hai. Lekin Canadian economic landscape abhi bhi uncertain hai, aur aney wali employment data mein unemployment rate mein thoda izafa dikhaya ja sakta hai, jo 6.4% se 6.5% tak pohanch sakti hai.

USD/CAD exchange rate par domestic economic concerns, geopolitical factors, aur US interest rates ke hawale se market expectations ka asar hai. Traders ko yeh variables ghore se monitor karne ki zaroorat hai jab wo forex market mein navigate karte hain. H4 chart par currency pair USD/CAD correction mein hai. Isne character change bhi kiya hai jab price ne double bottom aur SMA-100 ko break kiya. Jab price SMA-100 ke upar bounce back karegi, to yeh ishara hoga ke correction phase khatam ho gaya hai aur phir hum buy entry dekh

waqt hum USD/CAD currency pair ke live price movements ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Aaj US data ke jari hone ke baad, jismein PPI inflation expected se kam decline dikhaya gaya, USD ki bazar mein aik dafa phir se zabardast selling shuru hui. Yeh tabdeeli is liye expect ki gayi thi ke September mein 50-basis-point rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke woh horizontal channel jiska hum pehle zikar kar chuke hain, ab shayad complete hone wala hai. Filhaal, USDCAD ka price channel kaafi narrow hai aur yeh extended flat phase jaan bujh kar lagti hai. Jaise hi yeh consolidation phase khatam hota hai, nayi trading opportunities samnay aa sakti hain. Agar price apni Yeh decline 1.3769 ke price tak chala gaya, jo ke lagbhag 55 pips ka girawat tha. Abhi bhi yeh condition pressure mein hai aur oopar janay mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahi hai. Aisa mumkin hai ke agar H1 support 1.3689 ke price par cross ho jata hai, toh yeh mazeed neeche gir sakta hai.
Agar H1 timeframe se analysis kiya jaye toh, kafi dair tak sideways movement ke baad, USDCAD ne akhir kaar apni girawat ko mazeed barhawa diya. Iska natija yeh hai ke ab H1 support ka sab se neeche wala point 1.3689 ke price par cross ho gaya hai. Is support ke cross hone ke baad mumkin hai ke USDCAD neechay wale demand area ko target kare jo ke lagbhag 1.3618 ke price par hai. Wahan tak pohanchne ke liye abhi bhi 60 pips ka safar baaqi hai. Sab se zaroori cheez yeh hai ke H1 resistance 1.3735 ke price par cross na hone diya jaye, kyun ke agar yeh cross ho gaya toh oopar jane ke chances mazeed kam ho sakte hain.

Agar Ichimoku indicator ka use kar ke analysis kiya jaye toh USDCAD ke girawat ke baad, candle ka position jo pehlay line ke oopar tha, ab Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche aa gaya hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke USDCAD ka trend abhi bhi bearish hai aur Ichimoku indicator ke mutabiq yeh ke girawat ka chance abhi bhi hai. Kumo cloud ke cross hone ke baad, USDCAD ke girawat mein mazeed mazbooti aayi hai. Agar kuch izafa hota hai, toh sirf blue Tenkan Sen line tak hi rehne ka chance hai.

Dusri taraf, stochastic indicator yeh inform karta hai ke USDCAD ki condition abhi oversold hai. Yeh is cheez se sabit hota hai ke line ne level 20 ko cross kar liya hai. Shayad yeh USDCAD ke pichlay Jumay ko kaafi girne ka asar hai. Aise haalat mein, mumkin hai ke ab movement oopar ki taraf ho, magar agar aisa hota hai toh mein isay sirf ek correction samjhoonga. Baad mein jab line ne level 80 ko cross kar liya, toh USDCAD phir se aahista aahista neeche girne lagega.

Is analysis ka nateeja yeh hai ke USDCAD currency pair ke paas abhi bhi girne ka chance hai chahe yeh oversold hi kyu na ho. Wajah yeh hai ke Ichimoku indicator ke mutabiq candle ka position abhi bhi Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche hai. Iske ilawa, candle ne H1 support 1.3689 ke price par bhi cross kar liya hai. Is liye, main yeh suggest karta hoon ke agar aap is pair mein trade kar rahe hain toh sirf sell positions kholne par focus karein, taake trend ke mutabiq chal sakein. Aap apna take profit target qareebi support 1.3618 ke price par rakh

neeche ki taraf chalne wali rujhan ko barkarar rakhti hai, to 1.3679 ka level dekhna zaroori hoga kyun ke yeh USDCAD ka protective zone ka upper boundary hai. Agar price is level ke qareeb aakar break nahi karti, to 1.3766 ka area dobara dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jis ke baad ek significant drop ka imkaan ha.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Outlook of USDCAD Pair

The USD/CAD pair usalsal teesre din se downward side par ja raha hai, aur ye musalsal mazeed iss semat mein apna ye safar jari rakhega, jo lagbhag 1.3625-1.3625 area mein hai European session ke shuruati hisse mein, lekin follow-through ki kami hai. Crude Oil prices ke ird gird selling bias teesray din tak jaari rehti hai, Gaza mein ceasefire ki umeedon ke dauran, jo commodity-linked Loonie ko kamzor karti hai aur currency pair ke liye ek tailwind ke tor par kaam karti hai. Dar asal, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ne kaha ke Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ne ek bridging proposal ko manzoor kiya hai takay ek ceasefire deal mein rukawat dalnay wali disagreements ko tackle kiya ja sake aur Hamas se bhi isi ki darkhwast ki.

Is se Middle East mein ek broader conflict ke hawalay se pareshaniyan kam hoti hain aur is region se supply disruptions ke hawalay se bhi. Aagey chal kar, China mein economic slowdown ke concerns - jo ke duniya ka sabse bara importer hai Oil ka - black liquid ko lagbhag do hafta ke neeche dhakel dete hain. Is ke ilawa, ek modest US Dollar (USD) recovery, jo ke January se sabse neeche darjay se hoti hai, USD/CAD pair ko support karne wala ek aur factor hai. Greenback ke liye upside, magar, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations ki wajah se capped hai. Dar asal, CME Group ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, ziyada chance hai ke Fed apna rate-cutting cycle September policy meeting par shuru kare aur 2025 ke end tak borrowing costs ko 200 basis points se ziyada neeche le aaye. Dovish remarks by Fed officials ne inn bets ko reinforce kiya hai, jo USD ke kisi bhi meaningful gains ko rok sakti hai aur currency pair ke liye bhi.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne kaha ke US economy mein overheating ke asar nazar nahi aa rahe, is liye central bank officials ko zarurat se ziyada waqt ke liye restrictive monetary policy ko jagah pe rakhne se hichkichana chahiye. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly ne US economic slowdown ke sharp concerns ko kam tar kiya, magar kaha ke US central bank ko gradually borrowing costs ko kam karna chahiye. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari ne kaha ke Monday ko ke policy rate ke September mein cut karne ke hawalay se debate karna ek munasib baat hai jab ke labor market par risk ka balance zyada ho gaya hai. Yeh sab USD bulls ke liye kuch ehtiyaat mangta hai aur USD/CAD pair ke bottom out karne se pehle confirmation zaroori hai.

Traders zyada cues ke liye bhi intezaar kar sakte hain about the Fed's rate-cut path before placing aggressive directional bets. Iss liye, focus rahega on the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes, jo ke Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein Friday ko hone wale speech ke saath, USD demand ko drive karega aur USD/CAD pair ko kuch meaningful impetus dega. Is beech, Tuesday ke latest consumer inflation figures from Canada ko short-term trading opportunities ke liye dekha jayega. Canadian CPI ka doosray straight month mein fall hone ki umeed hai jo Bank of Canada (BoC) ko ek zyada accommodative policy ko pursue karne ka mauka de sakti hai, jo Canadian Dollar (CAD) par wazan dal sakti hai aur USD/CAD pair ko ek meaningful recovery dila sakti hai.

Aggressive rate cut bets Dollar ko defensive mein rakhte hain

Pichlay hafte ke directional moves on key markets kal bhi jaari rahe bina kisi guidance ke eco data ya central bankers ki taraf se. Core bond yields fail karte hain early August setback se recover karne mein US ke changes daily range mein -1.8 bps (30-yr) aur +1.6 bps (2-yr) ke darmiyan. German yields almost unchanged close hue. Khaskar US money markets significant Fed rate cuts ko expect kar rahe hain. Lift-off ke magnitude (25 bps being our preferred scenario) ke ilawa, khaskar 2025 path updated September FOMC dot plot mein challenge ho ga. Markets filhaal 2025 ke end tak 3.25% policy rate discount kar rahe hain, compared with a median Fed view of 4%-4.25% back in June. Aggressive rate cut bets dollar ko defensive mein rakhte hain. EUR/USD kal apni YTD best level par close hua (1.1085 from 1.1014) ke sath resistance levels line up ho rahe hain: 1.1139 (December top) aur 1.1276 (2023 top). Softer dollar ab bhi jaane ka rasta hai. Less restrictive monetary policy jahan money markets umeed kar rahe hain wo US soft landing ko accommodate karne mein madad karega aur khaskar downside recession risk ko rule out karega. Yehi wajah hai US stock markets ka bhi impressive comeback since the August 5 market meltdown. Key benchmarks kal 0.6% (Dow) se lekar 1.4% (Nasdaq) tak rally kiye, jo unko is month ke best levels tak le gaye. On commodity markets, gold apne all-time high par close hua $2548.3/ounce. Brent crude selling pressure mein raha ($77/b) global demand concerns aur is ke alawa ke US ne ye indicate kiya ke Israel ne Gaza mein cease-fire proposal ko accept kiya.

Asian stock markets kal ke positive momentum ke sath join karte hain China underperforming ke sath. Chinese banks ne apne benchmark lending rates unchanged rakha (1y: 3.35% aur 5y: 3.85%) jab ke unho ne pichlay mahine hi inko 10 bps se cut kiya tha. ECB governing council member Rehn ne kaha ke recent negative EMU growth risks ke increase ne September policy rate cut ke case ko reinforce kiya (disinflation track par rahe to). Unhone kaha ke manufacturing sector mein kisi pick-up ke clear signs nahi hain even though energy cost drivers largely fade away ho gaye hain. Aaj ka eco calendar extremely thin hai with only final July EMU CPI data on tap. Swedish Riksbank expect kiya jata hai ke apni policy rate doosri martaba 25 bps se lower karega (3.5% tak) Turkish central bank forecast ke sath jo rates steady rakhega 50% par.

News aur views

NY Fed’s SCE labour market survey ne ek mixed picture dikhai. Is mein pichlay saal ke muqable mein job seekers ka percentage sharp increase record kiya gaya. Jin logon ke paas naukri thi char mahine pehle, 88% ab bhi usi employer ke sath hain, jo ke is series ke shuru hone se le kar ab tak ka lowest hai July 2014 ke sath jab transition rate sharply rise hui. Aagey dekhte hue, ek naye employer ke saath move hone ki expected likelihood 11.6% se barh kar 10.6% ho gayi. Issi waqt, unemployed hone ki expected likelihood 4.4% se barh gayi 3.9% se jo ke ek naye high hai. Wage compensation ke sath satisfaction aur nonwage benefits aur promotion opportunities sab deteriorate ho gaye. Ek offer ki umeed rakhtay hue, aglay char mahine mein job offers ke liye expected annual salary ka average $65,272 se kam hokar $67,416 ho gaya, halan ke yeh pre-pandemic levels se significantly higher hai. Average reservation wage jo ke nayi naukri ke liye sabse kam wage hoti hai, jo respondents accept karte, wo $81,147 se barh gayi $78,645 se. Average expected likelihood age 62 se ziyada kaam karne ki 48.3% se barh gayi 47.7 se. Average expected likelihood age 67 se ziyada kaam karne ki 34.2% se barh gayi 32 se.

Reserve Bank of Australia ke 5-6 August meeting ke Minutes ne dikhaya ke central bank ne ek aur rate hike ka discussion kiya, lekin yeh result nikala ke policy rate ko 4.35% pe unchanged rakhna strong case tha. Members ne note kiya ke pehle ke months ke developments ne is view ko support kiya ke inflation dheere dheere decline karega. Underlying inflation pichlay saal mein quarterly terms mein thodi kam hui thi aur inflation target se ab bhi kaafi ooper thi. Members ne aggregate demand aur supply ke darmiyan gap ko pehle se ziyada assess kiya. Cash rate target ko ab ke market pricing se ziyada waqt ke liye current level pe rakhna inflation ko reasonable timeframe mein target pe wapas laane ke liye kaafi ho sakta hai. Board ko future meetings mein is cheez ka reassess karna hoga. Magar isne ye guide kiya ke cash rate target mein future changes ko rule in ya rule out karna possible nahi tha.

Technical Outlook

Technical perspective se dekha jaye, recent breakdown jo 1.3725 confluence support ke through hui - jo ke 50-day SMA aur 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ke comprising hai July-August rally ka - bearish traders ke liye ek key trigger ke tor par dekha gaya. Is ke ilawa, daily chart par negativity ko add karte hue jo tumbling US bond yields ne confirm kiya hai, USD/CAD pair ko aur neeche le jaane ke rasta bana rahe hain. Aab, kuch follow-through selling ne pair ko 1.3600 round figure ke support ke pass drag kar diya hai jo ke ab downside ke liye immediate support ke tor par act karega. Iske neeche convincing break se bearish traders ko fresh impetus mil sakta hai aur pair ko 1.3550 intermediate support ki taraf le jaa sakta hai jo ke neeche ka next relevant support hai. Iske neeche break hone se 1.3480 region ki taraf ek fresh leg down ho sakti hai.



On the flip side, koi bhi meaningful recovery attempt filhal ke liye ke liye 1.3650 region ke aas paas resistance face kar sakta hai. Isko follow kiya jata hai 1.3680 horizontal level jo ke ab 1.3725-1.3730 confluence support resistance mein flip ho chuki hai jo koi bhi recovery ke move ko cap karne ke liye strong base ke tor par act karegi. Is area ke aas paas koi bhi further recovery ke move ko 1.3750 region ki taraf le jaya jaa sakta hai, jahan se bulls further attempt kar sakte hain 1.3800 round figure mark ko regain karne ke liye."

ka imkaan kam kar deta hai ke prices 1.3796 se neechay girain gi, jo ke US dollar ke mazid mazboot hone aur Canadian dollar ke kamzor hone ko zahir karta hai, jo ke oil brands ke girti hui qeematon se mazeed badh raha hai. Yeh factors upward movement ko realistic banatay hain. Dosri taraf, guzishta haftay ek expanding triangle pattern zahir hoti hai, jo buyers ki kamzori ko dikhata hai, aur Thursday ko prices ka girna mazeed girawat ka imkaan barhata hai jo ke 1.3632 tak ja sakti hai aur consolidation range ko extend kar sakti hai. Mera andaza hai ke aglay haftay sideways movement hogi, kyunki koi strong impulses nahi hain jo ke significant upward ya downward momentum ko drive karen, given ke kamzor news background expected hai


Currency pair abhi bhi Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke upar trade kar raha hai. Support level 1.3834 ko test karne ke baad rebound hua, aur price dobara barh gayi. Candle model suggest karti hai ke bulls ne aakhri candle close hone par control hasil kar liya, jo ke growth potential ko reinforce karta hai. Natijan, currency pair apne upward trend ko jari rakhne ke liye poised hai, aur growth target 1.3887 hai. Hum is weekly maximum ko break karenge, aur 39-figure range ko aim karte huye, mumkin hai ke extended time frames mein 40-43 figures tak pahunch jayen. Agar is pair ko sell karne ka socha jaye, to ek greedy stop loss level set na karen, aur ise kam az kam 1.3996 par rakhen. Upward movement us surat mein likely hai agar bull wahan stop ko trigger karta hai. Har surat mein, bearish side ki taraf reversal expect nahi karunga. Bull abhi tak round resistance level 1.3901 tak nahi pahuncha, jo bear ko poora moqa deta hai ke woh full-fledged turn bearish kare. Halankeh ek false breakout ya 1.3901 level ka minor breach hone se pehle downward turn lena mumkin nahi lagta.
Hafte ke shuruati market session mein, price increase continue hone ke liye kaafi open lagti hai aur candlestick shayad weekly low 1.3792 ko chhodne ki koshish kare. Agar price Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko red ke neeche break nahi kar pati, to yeh bullish path par wapas move karne ka reference ban sakta hai.
BUY transaction level ko 1.3845 ke range se calculate kiya ja sakta hai, khaaskar agar increase ka target 1.3900 ke nearest resistance level tak ho. Risk of loss ke liye price 1.3815 par rakha ja sakta hai. Agar buyers bullish target level tak pohnchne mein kamiyab hote hain, to further increases ka potential aur zyada hoga.
USD/CAD chart timeframe H4 ko monitor karte hue, buyers ki push dekhne ko milti hai jo candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 60 indicator in yellow ke upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

USD/CAD currency pair ki live pricing movements ka tajziya karna hai. Buyers supply zone 1.3796 mein mojud hain aur is range mein aik haftay se zyada arsay se hain. Yeh is baat ka imkaan kam kar deta hai ke prices 1.3796 se neechay girain gi, jo ke US dollar ke mazid mazboot hone aur Canadian dollar ke kamzor hone ko zahir karta hai, jo ke oil brands ke girti hui qeematon se mazeed badh raha hai. Yeh factors upward movement




ko realistic banatay hain. Dosri taraf, guzishta haftay ek expanding triangle pattern zahir hoti hai, jo buyers ki kamzori ko dikhata hai, aur Thursday ko prices ka girna mazeed girawat ka imkaan barhata hai jo ke 1.3632 tak ja sakti hai aur consolidation range ko extend kar sakti hai. Mera andaza hai ke aglay haftay sideways movement hogi, kyunki koi strong impulses nahi hain jo ke significant upward ya downward momentum ko drive karen, given ke kamzor news background expected hai. Currency pair abhi bhi Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke upar trade kar raha hai. Support level 1.3834 ko test karne ke baad rebound hua, aur price dobara barh gayi. Candle model suggest karti hai ke bulls ne aakhri candle close hone par control hasil kar liya, jo ke growth potential ko reinforce karta hai. Natijan, currency pair apne upward trend ko jari rakhne ke liye poised hai, aur growth target 1.3887 hai. Hum is weekly maximum ko break karenge, aur 39-figure range ko aim karte huye, mumkin hai ke extended time frames mein 40-43 figures tak pahunch jayen. Agar is pair ko sell karne ka socha jaye, to ek greedy stop loss level set na karen, aur ise kam az kam 1.3996 par rakhen. Upward movement us surat mein likely hai agar bull wahan stop ko trigger karta hai. Har surat mein, bearish side ki taraf reversal expect nahi karunga. Bull abhi tak round resistance level 1.3901 tak nahi pahuncha, jo bear ko poora moqa deta hai ke woh full-fledged turn bearish kare. Halankeh ek false breakout ya 1.3901 level ka minor breach hone se pehle downward turn lena mumkin nahi lagta.
Hafte ke shuruati market session mein, price increase continue hone ke liye kaafi open lagti hai aur candlestick shayad weekly low 1.3792 ko chhodne ki koshish kare. Agar price Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko red ke neeche break nahi kar pati, to yeh bullish path par wapas move karne ka reference ban sakta hai.
BUY transaction level ko 1.3845 ke range se calculate kiya ja sakta hai, khaaskar agar increase ka target 1.3900 ke nearest resistance level tak ho. Risk of loss ke liye price 1.3815 par rakha ja sakta hai. Agar buyers bullish target level tak pohnchne mein kamiyab hote hain, to further increases ka potential aur zyada hoga.
USD/CAD chart timeframe H4 ko monitor karte hue, buyers ki push dekhne ko milti hai jo candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 60 indicator in yellow ke upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

USD/CAD currency pair ki live pricing movements ka tajziya karna hai. Buyers supply zone 1.3796 mein mojud hain aur is range mein aik haftay se zyada arsay se hain. Yeh is baat ka imkaan kam kar deta hai ke prices 1.3796 se neechay girain gi, jo ke US dollar ke mazid mazboot hone aur Canadian dollar ke kamzor hone ko zahir karta hai, jo ke oil brands ke girti hui qeematon se mazeed badh raha hai. Yeh factors upward movement ko realistic banatay hain. Dosri taraf, guzishta haftay ek expanding triangle pattern zahir hoti hai, jo buyers ki kamzori ko dikhata hai, aur Thursday ko prices ka girna mazeed girawat ka imkaan barhata hai jo ke 1.3632 tak ja sakti hai aur consolidation range ko extend kar sakti hai. Mera andaza hai ke aglay haftay sideways movement hogi, kyunki koi strong impulses nahi hain jo ke significant upward ya downward momentum ko drive karen, given ke kamzor news background expected hai. Currency pair abhi bhi Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke upar trade kar raha hai. Support level 1.3834 ko test karne ke baad rebound hua, aur price dobara barh gayi. Candle model suggest karti hai ke bulls ne aakhri candle close hone par control hasil kar liya, jo ke growth potential ko reinforce karta hai. Natijan, currency pair apne upward trend ko jari rakhne ke liye poised hai, aur growth target 1.3887 hai. Hum is weekly maximum ko break karenge, aur 39-figure range ko aim karte huye, mumkin hai ke




extended time frames mein 40-43 figures tak pahunch jayen. Agar is pair ko sell karne ka socha jaye, to ek greedy stop loss level set na karen, aur ise kam az kam 1.3996 par rakhen. Upward movement us surat mein likely hai agar bull wahan stop ko trigger karta hai. Har surat mein, bearish side ki taraf reversal expect nahi karunga. Bull abhi tak round resistance level 1.3901 tak nahi pahuncha, jo bear ko poora moqa deta hai ke woh full-fledged turn bearish kare. Halankeh ek false breakout ya 1.3901 level ka minor breach hone se pehle downward turn lena mumkin nahi lagta.
Hafte ke shuruati market session mein, price increase continue hone ke liye kaafi open lagti hai aur candlestick shayad weekly low 1.3792 ko chhodne ki koshish kare. Agar price Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko red ke neeche break nahi kar pati, to yeh bullish path par wapas move karne ka reference ban sakta hai.
BUY transaction level ko 1.3845 ke range se calculate kiya ja sakta hai, khaaskar agar increase ka target 1.3900 ke nearest resistance level tak ho. Risk of loss ke liye price 1.3815 par rakha ja sakta hai. Agar buyers bullish target level tak pohnchne mein kamiyab hote hain, to further increases ka potential aur zyada hoga.
USD/CAD chart timeframe H4 ko monitor karte hue, buyers ki push dekhne ko milti hai jo candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 60 indicator in yellow ke upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Mazeed jaiza lene ke baad, jab H4 timeframe chart pe price ka tajziya kiya, toh yeh wazeh hai ke trading session se raat ke waqt candlestick ne upar move kiya, lekin itna zyada nahi, lekin raat ko phir se downward pressure tha jiski wajah se candlestick 1.3660 ke price level ke neeche raha. Development aur mojooda market conditions se lagta hai ke ab bhi SELL trading transaction ka potential hai, jo ke kuch din pehle ke trend direction ke mutabiq hai.

Observations ke nateeje par pohnchne se pehle, maine technical data dekha jo kuch indicators dikhate hain. Relative Strength Index (14) ka lime line ab bhi level 30 pe consistently move kar raha hai. MACD indicator pe histogram bar bhi level 0 ke neeche hai aur kafi lamba hai. Yellow Simple Moving Average 60 indicator red Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko neeche ki taraf cross kar raha hai, jo mere khayal mein USDCAD currency pair ke liye bearish trend ko dikhata hai. Aaj ke market conditions se, yeh nazar aata hai ke almost sabhi indicators jo market movements ko monitor karte hain, wo bearish trend ko support karte hain, isliye USDCAD currency pair ke liye downward trend ka continue hona ab bhi mumkin hai kyunki sabhi indicators bearish movement ka keh rahe hain.

Mere khayal se, downward trend ke mutabiq trade karna ek acha choice hai jo potential profits provide kar sakta hai. Ideal area for SELL trading transactions yeh hai ke price ko 1.3600 level tak girne ka intezar kiya jaye, kyunki tab bearish signal valid lagne lagta hai. Agar baad mein seller price ko 1.3550 level tak neeche push karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to price ka aur neeche jane ka chance barh jayega. Yeh trading journal update ka nateeja hai Tuesday ko USDCAD currency pair ke liye. Umeed hai jo convey kiya gaya wo aapke liye faida mand hoga aur Investsocial Indonesia ke doston ke liye trading reference banega. Aapka din acha guzre shuruat-e-haftay ki.

Mazeed jaiza lene ke baad, jab H4 timeframe chart pe price ka tajziya kiya, toh yeh wazeh hai ke trading session se raat ke waqt candlestick ne upar move kiya, lekin itna zyada nahi, lekin raat ko phir se downward pressure tha jiski wajah se candlestick 1.3660 ke price level ke neeche raha. Development aur mojooda market conditions se lagta hai ke ab bhi SELL trading transaction ka potential hai, jo ke kuch din pehle ke trend direction ke mutabiq hai.
Observations ke nateeje par pohnchne se pehle, maine technical data dekha jo kuch indicators dikhate hain. Relative Strength Index (14) ka lime line ab bhi level 30 pe consistently move kar raha hai. MACD indicator pe histogram bar bhi level 0 ke neeche hai aur kafi lamba hai. Yellow Simple Moving Average 60 indicator red Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko neeche ki taraf cross kar raha hai, jo mere khayal mein USDCAD currency pair ke liye bearish trend ko dikhata hai. Aaj k
market conditions se, yeh nazar aata hai ke almost sabhi indicators jo market movements ko monitor karte hain, wo bearish trend ko support karte hain, isliye USDCAD currency pair ke liye downward trend ka continue hona ab bhi mumkin hai kyunki sabhi indicators bearish movement ka keh rahe hain.

Mere khayal se, downward trend ke mutabiq trade karna ek acha choice hai jo potential profits provide kar sakta hai. Ideal area for SELL trading transactions yeh hai ke price ko 1.3600 level tak girne ka intezar kiya jaye, kyunki tab bearish signal valid lagne lagta hai. Agar baad mein seller price ko 1.3550 level tak neeche push karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to price ka aur neeche jane ka chance barh jayega. Yeh trading journal update ka nateeja hai Tuesday ko USDCAD currency pair ke liye. Umeed hai jo convey kiya gaya wo aapke liye faida mand hoga aur Investsocial Indonesia ke doston ke liye trading reference banega. Aapka din acha guzre shuruat-e-haftay ki.

e 1.3796 mein mojud hain aur is range mein aik haftay se zyada arsay se hain. Yeh is baat ka imkaan kam kar deta hai ke prices 1.3796 se neechay girain gi, jo ke US dollar ke mazid mazboot hone aur Canadian dollar ke kamzor hone ko zahir karta hai, jo ke oil brands ke girti hui qeematon se mazeed badh raha hai. Yeh factors upward movement ko realistic banatay hain. Dosri taraf, guzishta haftay ek expanding triangle pattern zahir hoti hai, jo buyers ki kamzori ko dikhata hai, aur Thursday ko prices ka girna mazeed girawat ka imkaan barhata hai jo ke 1.3632 tak ja sakti hai aur consolidation range ko extend kar sakti hai. Mera andaza hai ke aglay haftay sideways movement hogi, kyunki koi strong impulses nahi hain jo ke significant upward ya downward momentum ko drive karen, given ke kamzor news background expected hai. Currency pair abhi bhi Ichimoku Cloud indicator ke dono borders ke upar trade kar raha hai. Support level 1.3834 ko test karne ke baad rebound hua, aur price dobara barh gayi. Candle model suggest karti hai ke bulls ne aakhri candle close hone par control hasil kar liya, jo ke growth potential ko reinforce karta hai. Natijan, currency pair apne upward trend ko jari rakhne ke liye poised hai, aur growth target 1.3887 hai. Hum is weekly maximum ko break karenge, aur 39-figure range ko aim karte huye, mumkin hai ke extended time frames mein 40-43 figures tak pahunch jayen. Agar is pair ko sell karne ka socha jaye, to ek greedy stop loss level set na karen, aur ise kam az kam 1.3996 par rakhen. Upward movement us surat mein likely hai agar bull wahan stop ko trigger karta hai. Har surat mein, bearish side ki taraf reversal expect nahi karunga. Bull abhi tak round resistance level 1.3901 tak nahi pahuncha, jo bear ko poora moqa deta hai ke woh full-fledged turn bearish kare. Halankeh ek false breakout ya 1.3901 level ka minor breach hone se pehle downward turn lena mumkin nahi lagta.
Hafte ke shuruati market session mein, price increase continue hone ke liye kaafi open lagti hai aur candlestick shayad weekly low 1.3792 ko chhodne ki koshish kare. Agar price Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ko red ke neeche break nahi kar pati, to yeh bullish path par wapas move karne ka reference ban sakta hai.
BUY transaction level ko 1.3845 ke range se calculate kiya ja sakta hai, khaaskar agar increase ka target 1.3900 ke nearest resistance level tak ho. Risk of loss ke liye price 1.3815 par rakha ja sakta hai. Agar buyers bullish target level tak pohnchne mein kamiyab hote hain, to further increases ka potential aur zyada hoga.
USD/CAD chart timeframe H4 ko monitor karte hue, buyers ki push dekhne ko milti hai jo candlestick ko Simple Moving Average 60 indicator in yellow ke upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain.

**USD/CAD Currency Pair Analysis**

USD/CAD currency pair ka price behavior kaafi dilchasp hai. Weekly aur daily charts ki technical analysis se ek prominent bearish pattern samne aa raha hai. Pichle Thursday ko ek bearish signal generate hua, jo ke price movement ko kam se kam 74 points tak le ja sakta hai, spread ko chhod kar. Fibonacci support levels consistent rahe hain, jahan 100% level 1.3687 ko decisively break kiya gaya, uske baad 138.1 aur 161.7 levels bhi 1.3668 aur 1.3659 par breach kiye gaye.

American trading session ke qareeb aate hi market ek active phase mein enter kar raha hai. Weekly chart ko dekh kar, ek robust bearish formation banta hua nazar aa raha hai, jo potentially price ko downward drive kar sakta hai. Lekin, current trend upward hai aur momentum steady hai. Agar price decline nahi hoti aur recent low ke niche consolidate nahi karti, toh ek bullish scenario bhi ban sakta hai. Isse price current level ke upar test karne ki situation ban sakti hai. Agar analysis sahi hoti hai, toh USDCAD pair pehle 1.3778 ke aas-paas rise kar sakta hai, jahan significant amounts of capital ka concentration hone ki ummeed hai.

**Market Analysis: USD/CAD**

Market ab ek low point par settle ho gaya hai, jo ke week ke liye bearish close ko indicate karta hai. U.S. dollar ki strength dheemi ho gayi hai, lekin correction kisi bhi waqt shuru ho sakti hai, khaaskar volatile trading periods ke dauran. USD/CAD pair ki situation ko Canadian dollar ke specific factors se aur bhi complex banaya gaya hai, jo Canadian economic news aur oil prices se heavily influenced hai. Oil prices ke girne ke saath, Canadian dollar ki strength U.S. dollar ke weakness aur Canadian economy ke current state ka natija hai.

Lekin, mujhe ek significant drop ki ummeed nahi hai bina substantial correction ke. Is context mein, main current level par buy karne ka inclined hoon, aiming for the upper limit of the regression channel jo ke 1.3709 ke aas-paas hai.

USD/CAD currency pair ke price behavior ka analysis filhal discussion ke liye open hai. Current oil dispute ek baar phir surface par aa gaya hai. Canadian dollar 1.3609-11 ke support range ke nazdeek aa raha hai, jabke oil recent corrective dip ke baad upar rally karne mein hesitant lag raha hai. Yeh scenario reverse ho sakta hai, jahan trading instrument anticipated direction mein move kar sakti hai. Lekin bearish trend ko continue karne ke liye, price ko robust horizontal support level 1.3609-11 ko breach karna padega, jaise ke pehle mention kiya gaya. Is waqt upward side par ek bounce kaafi likely hai. Agar movement weak hoti hai, to din ke baad ek aur significant bullish zigzag witness karne ko mil sakta hai.

Buyers ko control regain karne ke liye price ko recently reached high 1.3944 ke upar push karna padega aur resistance zone 1.3909-11 ke upar secure karna padega. Yeh upward movement ek challenging task hogi.

USD/CAD ko sell karne ke apne strategy mein, current scenario sellers ke liye favor karta hai. Price ne 1.36689 tak pohnch gayi hai, jo sell karne ke liye acceptable range ke andar hai, aur mujhe sell position enter karne ka confidence mil raha hai. Sellers ki dominance, aur weak opposition, short trades ke successful initiation ko support karti hai. Mera aaj ka target ek lower support level 1.36207 tak pohnchna hai. Lekin, exact stop level determine karna challenging hai, lekin yeh thoda upar 1.36821 ke aas-paas hona chahiye.

Agar selling pressure persistent raha, to 1.36207 ke neeche break ho sakta hai, jo ke sellers ke momentum ko strengthen karega aur positions ko lamba hold karna pad sakta hai. Critical moment shayad 1.3617 ke aas-paas aayega, jahan hum ek solid upward correction dekh sakte hain ya phir bears aur consolidate kar sakte hain, jo ke ek significant downward trend ka darwaza khol sakta hai. Kul mila ke, bears ke liye ek aur support zone aage hai, lekin decline continue hoga, gradual tariqe se, kam se kam support level 1.2954 ki taraf.

USD/CAD pair ne Friday ki NY session ke doran 1.3700 ke aas-paas apna ahem support level barqarar rakha, halaan ke thodi si decline hui. US Dollar (USD) neeche gira, kyunke Loonie asset ne Thursday ke gain ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami dekhi. US Dollar Index (DXY) taqreeban 102.70 tak gira, jo ke US dollar ki value ko chhe badi duniya ki currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai.Investors ka ye yakeen ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September meeting se interest rates mein kami karna shuru karega, ne Greenback ki value par pressure daala hai. July ke US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ne yeh darshaaya ke price pressures wapas targeted range 2% ki taraf jaa rahe hain, jisne market expectations ko barhawa diya ke Fed se ek significant rate reduction aa sakta hai.Jumay ke din, trading week ke khatam hone par, Canadian dollar (CAD) ne weaker Greenback ke muqable mein ground gain kiya, halaan ke risk appetite ke decrease hone ke bawajood Friday ko yeh general tor par kamzor raha. Friday ko broad-market risk mood mein ahem behtari dekhi gayi jabke positive US data ne investors ke pehle ke US recession ke hawale se concerns ko kam kiya. Agle Tuesday ko Canada apne latest inflation statistics release karega. CAD traders apni neutral attitude ko barqarar rakhne ke liye country ke Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers mein steady prints ke intezar mein rahenge.US dollar ki girti hui value ke bawajood, Canadian dollar (CAD) ne Friday ko ground gain kiya, three-week high tak pohanch gaya aur USD/CAD pair ko 1.3700 barrier ke neeche push kar diya. Pair ke 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ne 1.3728 par technical rejection diya, aur price movement ko EMA aur 200-day EMA ke darmiyan 1.3634 par range ke beech mein rokh diya.

Pehle yeh umeed thi ke 1.3876 level par breakout hoga, lekin ab jo situation hai wo yeh suggest karti hai ke trendline breach ko confirm hone ka intezar karna zyada strategic approach hai. Price ko retest karne dena aur trendline ko resistance mein tabdeel karne ka intezar kar ke aap apni position ko zyada effectively downward move ke liye set kar sakte hain.Price actions par nazar rakhein aur apni strategy ko accordingly adjust karte rahein. Sabr aur ehtiyaat se dekhna zyada reliable entry point provide karega jab trendline apne naye role mein resistance ke tor par validate ho jaye.

Aisa lagta hai ke bearish scenario ab shape lene laga hai. Price downward trend ki taraf move karti hui nazar aa rahi hai, lekin maine impulsively sell position enter nahi ki. Classical breakout strategies ke mutabiq, yeh prudent hai ke price ke neeche girne aur trendline ko neeche se test kar ke resistance mein tabdeel karne ka intezar kiya jaye.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Chothi martaba girawat ka silsila jari hai FOMC minutes se pehle

USD/CAD ne apni girawat ka silsila Wednesday ko chothi trading session tak barhaya. Sarafraas FOMC minutes ka intezar kar rahe hain ta ke naye interest rate ke isharaat mil saken. Canadian Dollar kai challenges ke bawajood outperform kar raha hai. USD/CAD pair ne Wednesday ke North American session mein 1.3600 ke round-level support ke neeche ka ilaaka test kiya. Loonie asset kamzor ho rahi hai jab ke Canadian Dollar (CAD) multiple headwinds ke bawajood US Dollar (USD) se behtar performance kar raha hai.

Sarafraas Canadian Dollar ko support kar rahe hain, halan ke Oil price girawat par hai Iran aur Israel ke darmiyan ceasefire ke bare mein afwaahon ke doran, aur price pressures ke kam hone se Bank of Canada (BoC) ke zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed barh rahi hai.

Dosri taraf, US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki value ko chay badi currencies ke mukable track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareebi hai, jo ke aakhri saath maheenon mein sabse kam level hai. Aage chal kar, US Dollar ko Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke minutes jo ke 18:00 GMT par publish honge, mutasir karenge.

Is haftay ke aakhri dinon mein, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole Symposium par khitaab sarafraas ke liye dekhne layak hoga ta ke interest rate ke rujhan ke bare mein naye isharaat mil saken. Fed Powell ke mukarrar rate cut ke rujhan par baat karne ke imkaanaat kam hain lekin market expectations ko tasalli dene par focus kar sakte hain, jo ke September mein policy-normalization ki taraf ishara karega.



USD/CAD ka support February 28 ke high ke qareebi 1.3600 par plot kiya gaya hai. Asset dabao mein hai jab ke 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.3714 ke qareebi hai aur neeche ki taraf sloping hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bearish range 20.00-40.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke firm downside momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Mazeed girawat us waqt hogi jab asset April 9 low 1.3540 ke neeche break karega. Yeh asset ko psychological support 1.3500 tak kheench layega, us ke baad March 21 low 1.3456 par aayega.

Ek alternate soorat-e-haal mein, agar August 12 high 1.3750 ke upar recovery move hoti hai to asset round-level resistance 1.3800 aur April 17 high 1.3840 ki taraf ja sakta hai.

Fundamental Analysis

Canadian Dollar (CAD) ko drive karne wale key factors Bank of Canada (BoC) ke set kiye gaye interest rates, Oil ki price (Canada ka sabse bara export), mulk ki economy ki sehat, inflation, aur Trade Balance hain, jo ke Canada ke exports aur imports ki value ke darmiyan farq ko zahir karta hai. Market sentiment (risk-on ya risk-off) bhi ahem role play karta hai – jisme risk-on CAD-positive hota hai. Apne sabse bare trading partner US ki economy ki sehat bhi Canadian Dollar ko mutasir karti hai.

Bank of Canada (BoC) ka Canadian Dollar par significant influence hai jab wo banks ke darmiyan lending rates set karta hai. Yeh har shakhs ke liye interest rates ka level mutasir karta hai. BoC ka main maqsad inflation ko 1-3% ke darmiyan rakhna hai by adjusting interest rates. Relatively higher interest rates CAD ke liye positive hoti hain. Bank of Canada quantitative easing aur tightening ko bhi use kar sakta hai ta ke credit conditions ko influence kar sake, jisme pehli CAD-negative aur doosri CAD-positive hoti hai.

Oil ki price Canadian Dollar ki value ko mutasir karne wala key factor hai. Petroleum Canada ka sabse bara export hai, is liye Oil price ka asar foran CAD value par hota hai. General tor par agar Oil price barhta hai to CAD bhi barhta hai, jab ke currency ke liye demand barh jaati hai. Agar Oil price girti hai to uska ulta asar hota hai. Higher Oil prices zyada positive Trade Balance ke imkaanaat ko barhate hain, jo ke CAD ko support karte hain.

Halankeh inflation ko hamesha se ek currency ke liye negative factor samjha jata raha hai kyun ke yeh paisay ki value ko kam karta hai, lekin modern daur mein cross-border capital controls ke relaxation ke sath iska ulta asar dekhne ko mila hai. Higher inflation central banks ko interest rates barhane par majboor karta hai jo ke zyada capital inflows ko attract karta hai, jo ke local currency ki demand ko barhata hai, aur Canada ke case mein yeh Canadian Dollar hai.

Macroeconomic data releases economy ki sehat ko measure karte hain aur Canadian Dollar par asar daal sakte hain. Indicators jaise ke GDP, Manufacturing aur Services PMIs, employment, aur consumer sentiment surveys CAD ke direction ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Ek strong economy Canadian Dollar ke liye acchi hoti hai. Na sirf yeh zyada foreign investment ko attract karta hai balki yeh Bank of Canada ko interest rates barhane par bhi raghib kar sakta hai, jo ke currency ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Agar economic data kamzor ho to CAD gir sakta hai.

USD/CAD pair ne Friday ke Asian trading session mein girawat dekhi, aur yeh 1.3720 level ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Yeh movement zyada tar strong Canadian Dollar (CAD) ke wajah se thi, jo kayi factors ke milne se faida utha raha tha. Positive US economic data, jisme strong retail sales aur lower jobless claims shamil hain, ne global economy, including Canada, ke liye optimism ko barhaya. Canada, jo America ka bara oil exporter hai, ko crude oil ki barhti hui demand se faida pohnch raha hai, jisne Canadian Dollar ko support kiya hai. US Dollar downward pressure ka shikar hai market expectations ke wajah se ke September mein Federal Reserve interest rate cut kar sakta hai. Halanki recent positive economic data ne greenback ko kuch support diya hai, lekin uski overall strength abhi bhi limited hai. USD/CAD pair bearish signals show kar raha hai. Stochastic indicator oversold zone mein enter ho gaya hai, jo price reversal ka imkaan darsha raha hai. Magar RSI aur MACD negative territory mein hain, jo yeh indicate karte hain ke downtrend abhi tak poori tarah se bottom out nahi hua. ho raha hai—yeh ek haqeeqat hai jo samajhni zaroori hai. Downtrend active hai aur successful unfold ho raha hai. Maine signals identify kar liye hain jo selling ko suggest karte hain, aur main in se faida uthana chahta hoon. MACD histogram positive territory se bahar nikal raha hai, aur AO histogram bhi positive zone se exit ho raha hai. Strategy yeh hai ke price ko support level 1.3588 tak girane ka target kiya jaye. Money management ke principles ko mad-e-nazar rakhna zaroori hai, khaaskar jab profitable positions ko breakeven par le jaaya jaata hai. Agar hum abhi ke H1 chart ka ghaur se tajziya karein, to market short trades ke liye ek favorable situation pesh kar rahi hai. Kuch aham prerequisites ko pura karna zaroori hai. Pehla goal yeh hai ke H4 time frame par prevailing trend ko accurate tareeqe se identify kiya jaye, taake ghalat market sentiment ki predictions se bacha ja sake jo financial losses ka sabab ban sakti hain.