USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Pichlay haftay USD/JPY H4 timeframe par dramatic surge dekhne ko mili, jahan price ne pehle sharp increase dikhaya aur phir decline ki taraf rukh kiya. Akhri trading session mein, price ka lower move karna direction change ki taraf ishara de raha tha, jo yeh dikhata hai ke sellers ne market control karna shuru kar diya hai. Resistance level jo upper range mein tha, woh price ko sustain karne ke liye kaafi strong nahi tha. Price ne 156.60 ke resistance level ko break kiya, jo pehle bullish movement ke liye barrier tha. Magar breakout ke baad price phir se decline kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh level bullish momentum ko zyada dair tak sustain nahi kar saka. Pullback ka hona market ke is level ko dobara test karne ki potential ko dikhata hai, aur agar price is level ke upar sustain na kar saka, to aur girawat aasakti hai. Yeh reversal breakout significant correction ka signal deta hai. Parabolic SAR system price ke parallel position mein hai, jo market conditions ke future movement ki taraf ishara karta hai. Agar SAR price ke kareeb ho, to iska signal hota hai ke price ya to reverse karega ya apni downtrend ko barqarar rakhega. Yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke price support level ko tod kar girawat mein barhta hai ya dobara reversal karta hai. Moving Average bhi upward movement dikhana shuru kar raha hai, jo price ke MA ki direction ko follow karne ka ishara hai. Agar price niche girta hai aur MA line tak pohanchta hai, to yeh ya to trend reversal ka signal hoga ya bearish movement ka continuity dikhayega.
Fundamentally, Federal Reserve ka inflation ko control karne ka focus dollar ko strong rakhta hai. Strong U.S. GDP growth aur job market data Fed ke hawkish stance ko support dete hain. Iske muqabil, Bank of Japan ki ultra-loose policies yen ko pressure mein rakhti hain. Jabkay Japan ki inflation expectations ke baraks barh rahi hai BOJ wage growth ke clear signals ka intezar kar raha hai. Central bank policies ka yeh contrast dollar ko advantage deta hai magar Japanese authorities ki intervention ki afwahen uncertainty barhati hain khaas tor par 157.00 level ke kareeb.
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY tight range mein consolidate kar raha hai, jo bullish momentum aur profit-taking ke darmiyan battle ko dikhata hai Intraday traders key support level 156.00 aur resistance level 157.00 par nazar rakhein. Pair abhi bhi apni 50-day moving average ke upar hai jo ek healthy uptrend ka signal hai. Lekin RSI 70 ke kareeb hai, jo slight overbought condition ka ishara deta hai aur temporary retracement ho sakta hai.Yeh technical patterns short-term trading ke liye mauqa pesh karte hain.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Aaj, US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi ne 156.47 ki satah se ooper naye tejarati hafte ka aaghaz kiya, jo tezi ke imkan ko zahir karta hai. Agar kharid signal is satah se ooper paida hota hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi ooper ki raftar hasil karegi. Yah dekhte hue keh ooper ki rujhan ek tarjih hai, jodi mumkena taur par pichle hafte ke aakhir me test kiye gye 157.89 ki muzahmati satah ko nishana banate hue, rujhan ke sath apne movement jari rakhegi. Yaqinan, ek mutabadil scenario hai, jis me farokht karne wale pahal kar sakte hain aur qimat ko niche le ja sakte hain. Agar qimat 156.47 ke nishan se niche fix ho jati hai to, farokht ka signal paida hoga. Is dauran, yah dekhna baqi hai keh kon se plan par amal hota hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USDJPY Same Apne Rout pe Chal Raha hai

Japanese yen ne Monday ke din Asian trade mein apni value mein girawat ka silsila dobara shuru kar diya, jo Friday ke din ruk gaya tha. Yen dobara se US dollar ke muqable mein neeche ja raha hai aur paanch mahine ki sabse kam level ke qareeb pohanch raha hai. Is dauran, Japanese hukoomat ne yen ki kamzori par fikr ka izhar kiya hai.
Bank of Japan Aur Byaaj Ki Balandi Ka Imkaan

Jabke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke policy makers par mehngai ka dabao barh raha hai, January mein byaaj ki sharah ko barhane ke imkanaat zyada ho gaye hain. Sarmaayakaar Japanese maaliyati data ka intezaar kar rahe hain taake zyada maloomat hasil kar saken.

USD/JPY Ki Keemat

USD/JPY 0.2% barh kar 156.69 yen per dollar par pohanch gaya, jabke session-low 156.33 tha. Yen ne Friday ke din 0.7% izafa dekhaya, jo pichle teen din ke nuksan ke baad pehli dafa tha, aur paanch mahine ki sabse kam level 157.92 se dur chala gaya.

Pichle hafte yen ne US dollar ke muqable mein 1.8% girawat dekhi, jo ke BoJ ke byaaj ki sharah mein tabdeeli na karne ke baad aayi.

Japanese Hukoomat Ka Rehnuma

Japan ke Finance Minister Katsunubo Kato ne Friday ke din forex market ke tez utar charhao par fikar ka izhar kiya, jo ke zyada tar spekulators ki wajah se tha. Unhone tasdeeq ki ke hukoomat is tarah ke tez hilchal ka samna karegi aur price ko stable rakhegi.

Japanese officials ka forex market par seedha fikar ka izhar karna rare hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke zarurat padne par wo market mein mudakhlat karne ke liye tayar hain.

Japanese Rates

Haal hi mein Tokyo se aaye data ne dikhaya ke November mein mehngai ki sharah 2.7% thi, jo ke umeed se zyada thi (2.6%), aur October ke 2.3% se zyada thi.

Is data ke baad January mein BoJ ke 0.25% interest rate hike ke imkanaat 45% se barh kar 55% ho gaye hain.

Intervention Zone Ka Khauf

USD/JPY aur BoJ ka Monday, 23 December ko centre stage ban gaya. BoJ ne interest rates ko 0.25% par barqarar rakha, jo ke umeed ke mutabiq tha. Lekin forward guidance ne yen ki value mein mazeed girawat la di, jabke sarmaayakaar rate hike ke waqt par ghuro kar rahe hain.

BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ka wages par focus dekh kar lagta hai ke shunto (spring wage negotiations) tak ek pause hoga. Ueda ne Trump ki policies ke asraat assess karne ki zarurat par bhi zor diya.

January Ka Faisla Aur BoJ Ki Raaye

27 December ko aane wali BoJ ki “Summary of Opinions” mazeed maloomat de sakti hai ke Board kab rates barhane par ghoor kar raha hai. Import prices aur ghar ke kharche par yen ki kamzori ke asraat speculation ko barhawa de sakte hain. Lekin BoJ ko consistent signals dene ki zarurat hai taake markets ko yakeen dilaya ja sake.

Technical Analysis

US session mein CB Consumer Confidence Index USD/JPY ke trends ko asar andaz kar sakta hai. Economists ka khayal hai ke November ke 111.7 se December mein ye 113.0 tak barh sakta hai. Agar ye umeed se zyada barhta hai to USD/JPY 156.884 resistance level tak ja sakta hai. Lekin agar ye unexpected taur par gir jata hai to USD/JPY 50-day aur 200-day EMAs ki taraf gir sakta hai.



Trading kaafi risk bhara hota hai, is liye sirf woh paisa use karein jo aap afford kar saken. BoJ aur forex market par nazar rakhna zaroori hai, khaas kar 23 December ke session mein.

دسمبر 23 2024 کے لیے امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

ین نے 15 نومبر کی چوٹی کو عبور کر لیا، 157.72–158.32 کے ہدف کی حد تک پہنچ گیا۔ ڈالر کی مجموعی مضبوطی کے خلاف، امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا مزاحمتی حد کو دوبارہ جانچ سکتا ہے۔ تاہم، اسٹاک مارکیٹ میں کمزوری ممکنہ الٹ پلٹ کی حمایت کرتی ہے اور تجویز کرتی ہے کہ ین 153.60–155.90 کی وسیع، واقف رینج میں مزید پیش رفت کا انتظار کرے گا۔



اگر قیمت 155.90 کی کلیدی سطح سے نیچے مستحکم ہو جائے تو یہ منظر نامہ سامنے آ سکتا ہے۔ اس سطح سے تھوڑا نیچے اشارے کی بیلنس لائن ہے، اور اسے نیچے توڑنا قیمت کے کسی بھی ارادے کو پہلے سے حاصل کردہ بلندیوں کو چیلنج کرنے کے لیے مکمل طور پر بے اثر کر سکتا ہے۔ 60% امکان ہے کہ قیمت 155.90 اور بیلنس لائن کی خلاف ورزی کرنے کی کوشش کرے گی۔

قیمت چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر دونوں انڈیکیٹر لائنوں سے اوپر رہتی ہے، اور مارلن آسیلیٹر گروتھ زون میں ہے۔ تاہم، بیلنس لائن قیمت اور 155.90 کی سطح کے قریب پہنچ رہی ہے۔ قیمت جتنی دیر تک مستحکم رہے گی، بیلنس لائن اور اس کے نیچے بڑھتی ہوئی ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن پر قابو پانا اتنا ہی آسان ہوگا۔ اگر قیمت مستحکم رہتی ہے، مارلن—مارکیٹ سے پہلے گرتی ہوئی—جلد ہی منفی علاقے میں داخل ہو جائے گی، قیمت کی تکنیکی معاونت کو توڑنے کی کوشش کے مطابق ہو گی۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY H4 Chart Analysis
Aaj ka chart USD/JPY ki price movement ko 4-hour timeframe par dikhata hai. Yeh chart ek strong bullish trend ka izhar kar raha hai, jahan price consistently upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai. Moving averages (MAs) ki alignment bhi upward momentum ko support kar rahi hai, jo ke market ka strong positive sentiment dikhata hai. Price ne 151.20 aur 149.40 ke aas-paas strong support zones banaye hain, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke yeh levels market ke liye "floor" ka kaam kar rahe hain. Agar price niche ki taraf retrace karti hai to yeh levels buyers ke interest ko dubara attract kar sakte hain. Dusri taraf, resistance zone 157 ke aas-paas hai, aur price is level ke qareeb consolidation kar rahi hai. Agar yeh resistance tod diya jaye, to price aur ziada upar jaane ki umeed hai, shayad 158 ya uske ooper ke levels tak.

Technical indicators ka agar jaiza lein to RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator 67 ke qareeb hai, jo ke bullish momentum ki confirmation deta hai. Lekin, RSI 70 ke qareeb hone ka matlab yeh bhi hai ke market overbought zone mein jaa sakti hai, jo short-term mein retracement ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is wajah se, traders ko chahiye ke apne entry aur exit points carefully plan karein. Price ke recent breakout aur moving averages ke consistent upward slope ko dekhte hue, USD/JPY ki price future mein aur ziada bullish lag rahi hai. Agar price 157 ke resistance ko todti hai to naye highs dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin agar price niche girti hai, to pehle support level 151.20 hai aur uske baad 149.40 jo buyers ke liye potential re-entry points ho sakte hain. Is trend ke mutabiq, short-term aur medium-term traders dono ke liye yeh market faidemand ho sakti hai, lekin risk management zaroori hai. Aap ke kya khayalat hain? Kya aap is trend mein buy karenge ya kisi retracement ka intezar karenge? Apni raye share karein.

H1 period chart par dekha jaye to November ke start mein MACD indicator par jo bearish divergence samne aayi thi, uska asar bilkul wazeh hai. Yeh divergence ne ek achi girawat ka sabab bana, jo November ke akhir aur December ke shuru mein support level 149.31 par ruk gayi. Is level se price ne dubara upar ki taraf rukh kiya aur 154.24 ke mirror level par ek rukawat ka samna kiya, jo pehle growth ka edge tha. Pehle yeh lag raha tha ke yeh level tod kar price neeche jayegi, magar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki mudakhlat—jo ek interest rate announcement aur uske baad ke actions par mabni thi—ne price ko upar push kar diya aur nayi upward wave structure shuru hui. Abhi MACD indicator upper purchase zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai, jo ke bullish momentum ko zahir karta hai. Lekin, guzishta Jumay ke din ek halka rollback nazar aya aur price filhal 156.40 support level ke qareeb hai. Sath hi, CCI indicator upper overheating zone mein ja raha hai, jo ek downward correction ka signal de raha hai. Ye baat mumkin hai ke price 154.24 support level tak neeche aaye aur phir wahan se rebound kare, jo price ko ascending trendline ke saath upar le ja sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 154.24 par hold kare to upward trend ke saath growth ka silsila 161.82 resistance area tak ja sakta hai.
Abhi ke liye, seedha upward move filhal kam mumkin lagta hai. Price ka 154.24 tak girna zyada fit lagta hai, kyu ke US dollar market mein apne lamba strong rehne ke baad correction ka samna kar raha hai. Baqi pairs, jaise USD/CAD aur USD/CHF, ne girawat dikhayi hai, magar USD/JPY resist kar raha hai. Ye is liye ke investors BoJ ki mazeed rate hikes par shak kar rahe hain. Sath hi, US-Japan yield differential mein izafa aur Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ne yen par mazeed pressure dala hai.
Japan ki inflation data, jo guzishta Jumay ko ayi, ne yeh umeed barhayi hai ke BoJ January ya March mein rate hike karega. Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, aur yen ko support karne ke liye Japanese authorities ke actions ke izafay ke wajah se bearish bets lagane mein hichkichahat ho sakti hai. Saath hi, US dollar par dip-buying USD/JPY ko support kar rahi hai, khaaskar Consumer Confidence Index jaise data ke aane se pehle.

USD/JPY ka pair momentum maintain karne mein mushkil ka samna kar raha hai, khas kar ek chhoti intraday uptick ke baad. Iss hafte ke shuruaat mein yeh pair apne sabse lowest level par pohanch gaya tha jo July ke baad se 157.00 mark ke aas paas tha. Uske baad ek halki si recovery ki koshish ki gayi, lekin recent dinon mein yeh recovery fail hoti nazar aayi. Japan ke manufacturing aur services sectors ki October mein contraction ki wajah se currency par dabao barh gaya hai. Yeh disappointing performance ek tezi se recovery ki umeed ko kamzor kar rahi hai, aur currency ko ongoing challenges ka samna hai.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:


USD/JPY ka future largely do key factors par depend karega:

1. Bank of Japan ki policy stance
2. US economic data

Agar BoJ apni interest rate policy ko tighten karne ka ishara deta hai, to yen ki value mazboot ho sakti hai aur ek strong rally ka trigger ho sakta hai. Lekin Japan ki current economic challenges ko dekhte hue, yeh move near term mein mushkil lagta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar US economy apni strength show karti hai, khas kar labor market aur inflation data ke zariye, to USD apna bullish momentum maintain kar sakta hai, jo Japanese yen par aur zyada pressure dal sakta hai.
Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:


Pair 158.00 level ko reclaim karne ki koshish kar sakta hai, jo ek key psychological barrier ka kaam kar raha hai. Agar pair yeh resistance todne mein kaamyaab hota hai, to yeh agle target 160.00 supply zone ki taraf dekh sakta hai.

Yeh rally technical factors se support ho sakti hai, jahan 157.75 horizontal zone ek stepping stone ka kaam karega 158.00 ki taraf. Lekin yeh upward move sirf tabhi mumkin hai jab USD/JPY apna bullish momentum maintain kare aur 158.00 aur uske aage ke resistance levels tod sake.

"USD/JPY ka daily timeframe chart humein ek strong bullish trend ka pata de raha hai. Price is waqt 157.33 par trade kar rahi hai, jo key resistance level 158.95 ke kareeb hai. Chart par do important moving averages, 50-day (blue) aur 200-day (red), clearly dekhay ja sakte hain. Price ka 50-day moving average ke upar rehna aur 200-day moving average se door hona is baat ki tasdeeq karta hai ke market mein bullish momentum barqarar hai.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) bhi positive territory mein hai, aur iska histogram increment show kar raha hai. Signal line aur MACD line ke darmiyan positive divergence maujood hai, jo buyers ki strength ko support karta hai. Yeh bullish sentiment ko mazid confirm karta hai. Lekin agar histogram weak hota hai ya signal line cross hoti hai, toh yeh reversal ka ishara bhi de sakta hai.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index) abhi 118.68 par hai, jo overbought condition ko indicate kar raha hai. Yeh kaafi zaroori level hota hai jahan se price gir sakti hai ya sideway consolidation shuru ho sakti hai. Agar CCI 100 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh pehla signal ho sakta hai ke market mein weakness aa rahi hai.
Price action ke mutabiq, agar price 158.95 ka resistance tod leti hai, toh agla bullish target 160.00 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price neeche girti hai, toh sabse pehla support level 154.50 par ho ga. Is support ke todne ki surat mein price aur neeche gir sakti hai, aur 150.00 tak bhi ja sakti hai.
Traders ke liye is waqt yeh zaroori hai ke woh apne risk management tools, jaise stop loss aur take profit, ka sahih istemal karein. Yeh ensure karega ke aapka capital safe rahe aur aap market ki volatility ka faida utha saken. USD/JPY ka yeh trend filhal bullish hai, lekin short-term correction ka risk hamesha maujood rehta hai."

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, US dollar/Japanese yen ke jode ne kuch badhat hasil ki aur 157.22 ki muzahmati satah par pahunch gaya. Aaj, jodi ne is satah ka test kiya, bears filhal qimat ko 56.06 ki support satah tak le jane aur niche khinchne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Halankeh, iske liye badti hui utar-chadhaw ki zarurat hai, jiski filhal kami hai. Agar bears abh bhi kamyab ho jate hain to, niche ki taraf harkat tez ho sakti hai. Is tarah ke hathkandon ke bawajud, dollar/yen ki jodi ke range-bound rahne ki tawaqqo hai. Is mamuli pulback ke bad, jodi ke faide ko dobara shuru karne aur 157.22 ki muzahmati satah se ooper mazbut hone ki koshish karne ka imkan hai.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD/JPY Calm as BoJ Core CPI Rises

Japanese yen Tuesday ke din zyada harkat nahi dikha raha. North American session ke doran, USD/JPY 157.33 par trade kar raha hai, jo writing ke waqt 0.11% ka izafa show kar raha hai.

Aham Points

• US Dollar Index ne September ke baad se 7% ka izafa kiya hai, kyunke Federal Reserve ne global peers ke muqable mein ahista rate cuts ka signal diya hai.
• Treasury yields 7-maheenay ke highs par hain, jo DXY ko support karte hain aur curve ko flatten karte hain, jabke markets kum rate cuts ki umeed kar rahi hain.
• Dollar ne yen par gain kiya hai, jab traders BoJ intervention par nazar rakhe huay hain. Japanese officials abhi bhi weak economic signals ki wajah se ehtiyaat kar rahe hain.
• Japanese Yen Ki Girawat Ka Safar
• Japanese yen abhi kaafi mushkil waqt ka samna kar raha hai, aur strong US dollar ke samnay apna ground kho raha hai. 1 October ke baad se, yen 9.5% gir gaya hai, aur is girawat ki wajah se Bank of Japan currency markets mein intervene karne par majboor ho sakta hai. Intervention ka maqsad yen ki girti hui value ko support karna hoga.

BoJ Core CPI Mein Izafa
BoJ Core CPI index, jo ke central bank ke liye ek aham indicator hai, November mein 1.7% y/y tak barh gaya, jo October ke 1.5% aur market ke estimate 1.5% se zyada hai.

Is se pehle, last week ke national headline inflation release mein yeh dekha gaya tha ke inflation November mein 2.9% tak pohanch gaya, jo October ke 2.3% se zyada hai. Yeh izafa October 2023 ke baad se highest level hai.

Inflation ke izafay ki wajah food aur electricity prices ka barhna hai. Yeh bhi noteworthy hai ke:

Core CPI (food ke ilawa) October ke 2.6% se barh kar 2.7% tak pohanch gaya.
Core-core CPI (food aur energy ke ilawa) bhi 2.3% se barh kar 2.4% tak pohanch gaya.
Yani har taraf se dekha jaye, inflation barh raha hai. Is wajah se umeedain barh rahi hain ke Bank of Japan 2025 ke shuru mein rates barha sakta hai.

Bank of Japan Ki Policy Ka Rukh
BoJ ne apni pichli meeting mein rates ko stable rakha, aur BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda ne kaha ke underlying inflation abhi “moderate pace” par barh rahi hai. Is wajah se BoJ ke paas time hai rate hikes ke faislay mein.

Lekin, agar inflation ka yeh trend barh gaya aur yen 160 ke qareeb pohanch gaya, to BoJ January tak rate hike ka faisla kar sakta hai. Agli BoJ meeting 24 January ko hogi, aur central bank ki policy makers kaafi closely Trump administration ke decisions par nazar rakhe huay hain. Trump ne US ke trading partners par tariffs lagane ka wada kiya hai, jo ke Japanese economy ke liye ek naya challenge ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis
USD/JPY abhi upward momentum show kar raha hai, kyunke traders rising Treasury yields par focus kar rahe hain. Federal Reserve ki policy outlook ke recent changes ne USD/JPY ke liye ek bullish catalyst provide kiya hai, jabke BoJ apni ultra-dovish policy continue kar raha hai.



Agar USD/JPY 157.50 ke level ke upar chala jata hai, to agla resistance level 158.50 – 159.00 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh 157 ke neeche gira, to support levels 156.50 aur 156.00 ke qareeb aa sakte hain.

Inflation Aur Currency Intervention Ka Taluq
Japanese yen ki weak position aur barhta inflation, dono factors BoJ ke liye decision-making process ko complex bana rahe hain. Inflation ko control karne ke liye, BoJ ka rate hike karna ek obvious step hoga, lekin weak yen ne exports ko competitive banaya hai. Yeh balance karna BoJ ke liye mushkil hoga.

Dusri taraf, agar yen aur zyada gir gaya, to import prices barh jayengi, jo ke inflation ko aur aggressive bana sakti hain. Iss scenario mein, BoJ ka intervention na sirf zaroori hoga, balke currency markets ke liye ek aham signal bhi banega.

US Dollar Ki Mazbooti Aur Global Asar
US Dollar ki mazbooti ki wajah rising Treasury yields aur Federal Reserve ki steady policy hai. Jabke Europe aur Japan jese regions ahista monetary policies par move kar rahe hain, US ne inflation control karne mein kaafi aggression dikhaya. Iska nateeja yeh hai ke global investors US dollar aur bonds mein zyada interest dikhate hain, jo yen aur euro jese currencies ke against dollar ko mazboot banata hai.

Yen ki kamzor position aur inflation ka barhna Bank of Japan ke liye nayi dilemmas create kar raha hai. Aane wale haftay critical honge, jahan currency markets aur policy decisions dono kaafi volatility dikhayenge. USD/JPY ki movement kaafi had tak Treasury yields aur inflation expectations par mabni hogi. Investors ko BoJ ki agle mahine ki meeting par nazar rakhni hogi, jahan currency intervention aur rate hike ke asraat discuss honge.

Is waqt kaafi saare factors USD/JPY ke bullish trajectory ko support kar rahe hain, lekin agar BoJ ne unexpected policy move kiya, to market sentiment badal sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka exchange rate aaj subha range-bound trading pattern dikhata raha jo recent monthly highs ke aas-paas fluctuate kar raha tha. Investor sentiment abhi tak BOJ ke interest rate hike plans ke hawalay se cautious hai. Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ne U.S. aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate differential ki umeedon ko kam kar diya hai, jis se yen aur zaeef ho gaya hai.Global markets mein positive risk appetite bhi yen ki weakness mein apna role ada kar raha hai.Lekin Japan mein strong inflationary pressures ne January ya March mein BOJ ke interest rate hike ki umeed barha di hai. Saath hi, Japanese authorities ke yen ko support karne ke liye possible intervention ne currency ke aggressive short-selling ko discourage kiya hai. Geopolitical risks aur trade wars ke concerns ne bhi yen ko safe-haven support diya hai. Technical perspective se dekha jaye to 158.00 ek key resistance level hai. Agar pair is level ke upar consolidate karta hai to yeh bullish shift ka signal de sakta hai jo USD/JPY ko 158.45 ke intermediate resistance level ki taraf le ja sakta hai.Agar price 159.00 ke mark ko tod leta hai, to yeh daily chart par ek significant bullish signal hoga. Is ke bar-aks agar price 157.00 ke niche girta hai to support 156.65 par mil sakta hai. Kisi bhi further decline ko 155.50 ke area mein buying opportunity ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai, jahan strong support 155.00 ke psychological level ke aas-paas hai.Technical indicators zyada bullish bias ko show kar rahe hain. RSI midpoint ke upar hover kar raha hai jo upward momentum ko indicate karta hai.ADX bhi 25 ke threshold ke upar hai jo moderate trend strength ko signal karta hai. Stochastic oscillator overbought area ki taraf move kar raha hai, jo strong bullish pressure ka ishara de sakta hai. Minor resistance USD/JPY ke price 157.94 par hai magar mujhe lagta hai ke yeh pehle resistance level par nahi rukega aur price mazeed barh kar 165.76 aur us ke baad 171.54 ke resistance levels tak pohanch sakta hai.Dosri taraf minor support 156.00 par hai lekin yeh price wahan nahi rukega aur gir kar 153.16 aur phir 147.52 ke support levels tak ja sakta hai. Bullish pressure filhal strong lag raha hai aur mujhe umeed hai ke yeh movement traders ke liye faida mand sabit hogi.

USD/JPY ka nazdeeki trend technical signals aur aham maashi data ke zariye decide hoga. Traders abhi U.S. job reports, inflation figures, aur doosri aham maashi indicators par nazar rakhe hue hain, jo na sirf U.S. economy ki halat ke bare mein insight denge balki Federal Reserve ke aanay wale monetary policy ke faislay bhi influence karenge. Hal hi mein USD/JPY ne upward momentum dikhaya hai, magar technical indicators is baat ki taraf ishara karte hain ke yeh bullish trend apne peak ke qareeb ho sakta hai. Overbought market conditions aur kuch khas chart patterns yeh signal dete hain ke breakdown ka imkan ho sakta hai. Filhal pair ka bullish trajectory barqarar hai, magar traders ko alert rehna hoga kyunke aanay wala maashi data aur key support levels bohot aham honge ye decide karne ke liye ke trend continue karega ya reverse hoga.

USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 157.50 level ka breakout kiya hai, jo ek psychological barrier aur teeno din ke range ka upper boundary tha. Is breakout ne bullish traders ke liye optimism barhaya hai. Daily chart ke oscillators positive territory mein hain, jo yeh dikhate hain ke upward momentum ke liye abhi jagah hai aur market overbought nahi lag rahi. Lekin agar pair 157.00 ke neeche girta hai, to yeh sentiment shift ka signal ho sakta hai. Yeh decline pair ko 156.91 (50-DMA) tak le jaa sakta hai, aur uske baad ka support 156.00 ke kareeb hai. In levels par focus karna zaroori hai, kyunke agar weakness barqarar rahi aur 157.00 ke neeche sustain kiya, to deeper correction ka risk ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair 157.50 ke upar strong hold karta hai, to bullish trend jari reh sakta hai. Aane wale sessions bohot crucial hain USD/JPY ke short-term direction ko decide karne ke liye.

"USD/JPY H1 Chart Analysis – 26th December 2024"

Aj ka USD/JPY ka hourly (H1) chart strong bullish trend ka pata deta hai. Price steadily 157.45 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo major resistance zone ke kareeb hai. Moving averages ne clear upward slope dikhaya hai, jo consistent bullish momentum ka signal hai. Do prominent moving averages chart par nazar aa rahi hain: ek medium-term aur ek long-term. Dono ka alignment yeh confirm karta hai ke market abhi bulls ke qabze mein hai. Dusri taraf, RSI (Relative Strength Index) ki value 63 ke aas paas hai, jo overbought zone ke kareeb hai lekin abhi usmein nahi. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke market ke andar abhi bhi upar ki taraf aur move karne ki gunjaish hai. Agar price 157.60 ka resistance tod leta hai, toh yeh 157.90 aur phir 158.30 tak jaa sakta hai. Lekin agar girawat hoti hai, toh pehla support 157.00 ke aas paas aur uske baad 156.65 par dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Price ka jo recent action hai, wo consolidation ka signal de raha hai. Yeh indicate karta hai ke market ek breakout ya reversal ke liye tayar ho raha hai. Is breakout ko dekhne ke liye, higher volume candles ka analysis karna zaroori hoga. Agar volume badhta hai, toh breakout zyada significant hoga. Lekin traders ko yeh zaroor yaad rakhna chahiye ke trend ke against position lena risk ko barha sakta hai. Hamesha apna stop loss lagayen, khas kar agar aap short ya long positions lena chahte hain. Current conditions ke mutabiq, buy-on-dip strategy zyada effective lagti hai. Kya aapko lagta hai ke USD/JPY ka price apna resistance tod kar nayi heights tak jaayega? Ya phir consolidation ke baad ek pullback hoga? Apni insights aur trading plans zaroor share karein!

USDJPY Currency Pair Analysis - D1 Chart
USDJPY ke D1 chart par, November ke doran MACD indicator par nazar aane wali bearish divergence bohot hi asaani se kaam kar gayi. Is divergence ke natayij mein November ke aakhir aur December ke shuruat tak ek acha girawat dekhnay ko mila, jo horizontal support level 149.31 par khatam hui.
Is level se price neeche gayi, lekin mirror level par, jo growth ke edge par 154.24 par tha, kuch rukawat hui. Yahaan se neeche jaane ki koshish hui, jo achi ja sakti thi, magar Bank of Japan ke kuch "weird" actions ki waja se kaafi farq pada. Pehle interest rate ka elan hua, aur phir kuch aur unexpected actions. Un karwaiyon ke natayij mein mirror level toot gaya aur price bilkul upar chali gayi.
Ab wave structure ne apni direction phir se upar banayi hai. MACD indicator ab upper purchase zone mein hai aur apni signal line se upar chal raha hai. Jumma ke din thoda sa rollback dekha gaya aur price 156.40 ke support level ke qareeb atki hui hai. CCI indicator ab overheating zone se neeche jaane ke liye tayar lag raha hai.
Meri assumption hai ke correcting growth aur gehri hogi aur price 154.24 ke support level tak wapas ja sakti hai. Yahaan se ek upward rebound expected hai, jo price ko ascending line tak le ja sakta hai jo waves ke bottoms ke sath align hai.
Alternative Scenario:
154.24 ke level se seedha upar growth ka ikhtimal bhi hai, jo upward trend ko continue karte hue 161.82 ke area tak pohcha sakta hai.
Har do scenarios mein mujhe lagta hai ke price pehle 154.24 tak zarur wapas aayegi. Seedha upward move filhal unlikely lag raha hai. Sath hi, US dollar market mein apni lambi mazbooti ke baad correction mode mein hai. Kuch currency pairs jaise USDCAD aur USDCHF ne kuch girawat dikhayi hai, magar USDJPY abhi tak is process mein peeche hai.
Nateeja: USDJPY ka short-term focus 154.24 ke level par hai, jahan se ya to rebound hoga ya upward trend continue hoga.

USD/JPY Daily Technical Analysis USD/JPY ka chart dekh kar yeh samajh aata hai ke market ne achi recovery dikhayi hai aur ab price bullish zone mein dikh rahi hai. Chart par Moving Average (MA 50) ke upar close hona buyers ki strength ka signal hai, jo ke market ke upward momentum ko confirm kar raha hai.
Current Situation:
Abhi price 154.15 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, jo ek important resistance level hai. Agar yeh level tod diya jata hai, toh agla target 154.50 aur phir 155.00 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Neeche ka support level 152.80 - 153.00 ke kareeb hai, jahan buyers wapis enter kar sakte hain. Yeh area critical hai, kyun ke agar price iss level ke neeche jata hai toh correction ka shuru hona mumkin hai.
MACD Indicator:
Chart par neeche MACD indicator ka histogram positive side par hai, jo bullish momentum aur strength ko support kar raha hai. MACD ka yeh signal confirm karta hai ke price ke upward continuation ke chances zyada hain, lekin agar resistance ke aas paas rejection milta hai toh thodi si sideways ya corrective movement ho sakti hai.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 154.15 ke upar ka break market ko 155.00 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.
Support: 152.80 ka level price ke neeche girne ki surat mein important hai. Iske neeche girawat ki guzarish shuru ho sakti hai.
Trading Strategy:
Buy Setup: Agar price 154.15 ke resistance ke upar close kar leti hai, toh yeh bullish continuation ka signal hoga. Target rakhein 154.50 - 155.00 ke liye.
Sell Setup: Neeche girawat sirf tab consider karein jab price 152.80 ke neeche sustain kare. Is case mein short positions ke targets 152.30 - 151.50 ho sakte hain.
Conclusion:
Abhi ke liye USD/JPY ka trend bullish hai aur buyers ke paas advantage hai. Lekin resistance todne par hi upward momentum confirm hoga. Safe trading ke liye risk management aur stop loss ka istemal zaroor karein taake market ke reversals ka asar kam ho