usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ka tajziyah
Assalam Alaikum! Yen Americi dollar ke muqable musalsal kamzor ho raha hai, aur yah ruhan kuch aisi hai jis par gaur karna chahiye. Dollar/yen ke jode me 139.60 ki support satah se shuru ho kar ooper ki taraf rujhan zor pakad raha hai. Mai kharidari ke positions ke liye signals ki nishandahi ki hai aur un me se do ko yahan share karunga. Ek bar fir, stochastic oscillator lines overbought zone ki taraf mud gayi hain, aur moving average Shumal ki taraf badh rahi hai.
Aar sab kuch thik raha to, 157.60 ki satah ke breakout ke bad qimat me izafe ki tawaqqo hai. Ek bar jab qimat is hadafke kam az kam aadhe raste tak pahunch jati hai to, koi bhi khuli long positions munafe me honi chahiye, jis se stop-loss ko break-even point par le jana ek accha point ban jata hai.

نومبر 13 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی


امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا یومیہ چارٹ پر 153.60 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہو گیا ہے، جس نے 165.30 کے ہدف کی طرف راستہ کھولا ہے۔



تاہم، مارلن آسیلیٹر کمزور رہتا ہے، اپنی طرف سے استحکام کی تحریک کو جاری رکھتا ہے۔ اس سے پتہ چلتا ہے کہ اوپر کی رفتار طاقت کھو سکتی ہے، جو ممکنہ طور پر 157.72 کے دوسرے ہدف کی سطح تک پہنچنے سے پہلے اصلاح کی طرف لے جاتی ہے۔



چار -گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت کی نمو مضبوط اور پراعتماد دکھائی دیتی ہے، لیکن مارلن یہاں بھی دبی سرگرمی دکھاتی ہے۔ لہذا، جوڑی کی مزید ترقی کو احتیاط کے ساتھ مانیٹر کیا جانا چاہئے.

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY pair

ke iss chart ko dekhte hue lagta hai ke overall trend downwards hai, aur price ne recent candles mein consistently niche ki taraf movement dikhayi hai. Chart mein different moving averages ka istimaal hua hai – yellow, red, aur blue lines jo various periods ko represent karti hain. Ye moving averages price ke upar hain, jo yeh darshaati hain ke selling pressure abhi bhi kaafi strong hai aur buyers ka momentum weak hai.

Jab tak price in moving averages ke upar close nahi karti, us waqt tak reversal ki ummeed kam hai. Chart mein red line 200-period moving average ko represent karti hai, jo ke ek strong resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Price ne kai martaba is line ko touch kiya, magar har dafa wahan se rejection face kiya aur phir niche gir gayi. Yeh situation sellers ke liye favorable hai kyun ke 200 MA ke neeche price ka stay karna downward trend ki confirmation deta hai. Iss ke ilawa, niche RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator bhi hai,


jo ke lagbhag 40 ke level par hai. Yeh level oversold zone ke qareeb hai lekin abhi is mein koi strong bullish divergence ka signal nahi hai. Agar RSI 30 ke qareeb ya neeche chala jata hai, to oversold conditions ho sakti hain jisme short-term bounce ka chance barhta hai. Lekin abhi ke liye, RSI indicator yeh suggest karta hai ke market mein selling momentum prevail kar raha hai aur koi bhi upward movement thodi si temporary ho sakti hai.
Agar aap iss market mein trading ka soch rahe hain, to filhal yeh behtar hai ke buy entry na lein jab tak koi significant bullish signal na mile, jaise ke price ka 200 MA ke upar close hona ya RSI mein clear reversal. Agar selling continuation strategy apply karna chahte hain to short positions ko priority dein, lekin risk management ka khayal rakhein kyun ke market kabhi bhi reverse ho sakti hai. Short positions lene ke liye resistance levels ke aas paas entries dekh sakte hain, lekin stop loss ka zaroor istimaal karein taake sudden reversals se bach sakein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Yen US Inflation Data ki Waja se Downtrend Mein Ja Raha Hai

Yen ne Wednesday ko Asian trade mein US Dollar ke muqablay mein teesi loss record kiya, aur chaar mahine ke lows par pohnch gaya, jabke Japan ke interest rate hike ka chance December mein kam hota ja raha hai.

Iske baraks, Federal Reserve ke rate cut ka chance bhi kam ho gaya hai kuch Fed officials ke remarks ke baad, aur ab traders aaj ke important US inflation data ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

Price

USD/JPY aaj 0.25% barh kar 154.95 par pohnch gaya, jo ke 30 July ke baad ka sabse zyada hai, aur session-low 154.50 par tha.

Yen ne kal dollar ke muqablay mein 0.6% ki girawat dekhi, jab US long-term treasury yields mein izafa hua.

Japanese Rates

Bank of Japan ke latest meeting minutes ne dikhaya ke kuch members US elections ke baad uncertainty ko lekar concerned hain.

30-31 October ki meeting mein BOJ ne interest rates ko unchanged rakha tha, lekin kaha ke US economy se related risks kam ho gaye hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke conditions doosri rate hike ke liye ripe hain.

Lekin BOJ ke doves ne monetary policies ko normal karne ki raah mein dheere chalne ka mashwara diya.

US Rates

Is hafte ke dauran kuch Fed officials ke remarks expected se zyada bullish the, jiski wajah se December mein 0.25% rate cut ke chances 68.5% se ghatt kar 60% ho gaye hain, Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq.

Ab investors US ke consumer prices data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo aaj ke liye October ke liye hai, taake US policies ke liye aane wale raaste ko samajh sakein.

USDJPY ka Forecast

USDJPY ke H1 time frame chart ke mutabiq, RSI indicator kuch ghante pehle overbought level tak pohncha tha, isliye USDJPY price ne price adjustment ki wajah se girawat dekhi. Ab ziada chances hain ke price barhegi, kyun ke USDJPY ne current candle mein 50 EMA line ko test kiya hai, lekin agar additional price correction hoti hai, to yeh 50 EMA line ko neeche cross kar jayegi. USDJPY ne H4 time frame chart par subah early mein stronger resistance level ko breach kiya tha, lekin buyers ki taqat price ko ooper push karne ke liye kafi nahi thi. Is wajah se, H4 chart par aakhri do candles bearish thi. Price pichlay kuch ghanton se decline kar rahi hai, aur abhi ke candle mein bhi girawat dekhne ko mil rahi hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke price abhi bhi girne ka silsila jaari rakhegi.



USDJPY ka price daily time frame chart par August se lekar October tak declining channel mein tha. Lekin October ke shuruat mein price ne steady climb shuru ki thi, jiski wajah se USDJPY ne us descending channel ke upward trend line ko break kiya. USDJPY ne trend direction ko change kiya, kyun ke na sirf usne descending channel ko upar ki taraf break kiya, balki 26 aur 50 EMA lines ko bhi upar cross kiya. USDJPY ki price pichlay mahine se rise kar rahi hai, kyun ke successful trend change ho chuka hai, jiski wajah se last week 154.71 ka resistance level hit kiya. Jab tak primary trend bullish hai, price jaldi zyada momentum ke sath rise karegi. Filhaal, buyers ki side breakout mushkil lagta hai, aur price is resistance level ke aas paas ghoom rahi hai.

Chart humein overall bearish trend mein price movement dikhata hai, jismein lagatar girawat dekhi ja sakti hai. Is chart mein multiple moving averages dikhaye gaye hain, jo ke price ke upar hain. Yeh moving averages ke price ke upar hone ka matlab yeh hai ke downtrend ka continuation strong hai, aur abhi tak koi reversal ka signal nazar nahi aata. Moving averages ka yeh placement confirm karta hai ke market mein abhi tak selling pressure dominate kar raha hai.
Chart mein candles ki positioning bhi lower highs aur lower lows bana rahi hai, jo ke ek classic bearish pattern hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke har upar ki taraf correction ke baad price phir se neeche ki taraf jati hai, jo ke sellers ke strong hone ka indication hai. Buyers ki taraf se koi khaas support nazar nahi aata jo price ko sustain kar sake, is wajah se girawat mein consistency hai.
Neeche chart mein ek oscillator indicator bhi maujood hai, jo ke MACD lagta hai. Yeh indicator bhi neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai aur uska histogram negative side par hai. Is se yeh signal milta hai ke momentum abhi bhi bearish hai aur selling pressure mein kami ka koi nishan nahi hai. Jab tak MACD ya koi aur momentum indicator positive side par cross nahi karta, tab tak trend reversal ki umeed kam hai. Agar aane wale dino mein price kisi important support level ko test karti hai, toh yeh support break hone par market aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai. Lekin agar kuch buying interest dikhaya gaya aur price kuch resistance levels ko test karti hai ya moving averages ko cross karne ki koshish karti hai, toh yeh ek temporary retracement ho sakta hai. Lekin filhal ke price action aur indicators ke hisaab se, yeh strategy behtar hogi ke selling ke liye opportunities dekhi jayein jab bhi price thoda upar correction kare. Short-sellers ke liye ye ek ideal setup hai jahan retracement ke doran naye entry points mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi unexpected reversal ke liye stop-loss lagana zaroori hai, taake risk management sahi tareeke se ho.

Aaj umeed hai sab theek hain. Aaj mai aap ke sath apne USD/JPY pair ke analysis share karne laga hoon, toh analysis pe nazar banaye rakhein.USD/JPY chart ke mutabiq abhi price 155.92 ke aas-paas fluctuate kar rahi hai. Forecast ke mutabiq kuch trading dino tak pair mein solid bullish sentiment hai. Har dip ko market mein buying ka mauqa samajhna chahiye kyunke momentum indicators kehtay hain ke buyers abhi control mein hain.Agar dekha jaye toh RSI indicator neutral threshold 50 ke upar chal raha hai, jo ye batata hai ke buyers abhi bhi market control kar rahe hain. MACD histogram bhi red signal line ke upar hai aur north direction ki taraf hai jo ke bullish momentum ko confirm karta hai. Moving averages ki baat karein toh 20-day aur 50-day EMAs current price se neeche hain, jo ek strong bullish signal hai.Ab kuch technical levels ki baat karein:Resistance levels hain 160.76, 165.76, aur 170.65. Yani agar price 160.76 ko breach kar leti hai toh agla target 165.76 aur phir 170.65 ka hosakta hai.Support levels hain 155.25, 154.07, aur 152.47. Agar price 155.25 se neeche girti hai toh next targets 154.07 aur 152.47 ke aas-paas ho sakte hain.Fundamental side pe dekhein toh Middle East mein tension barh rahi hai jiski wajah se log safe assets ki taraf bhag rahe hain, jisme US Dollar sabse pehla option hai. Is wajah se USD/JPY pair ko support mil raha hai aur price 155.60 ke upar chal rahi hai.Saath hi saath US monetary policy ke hawale se bhi traders apne positions adjust kar rahe hain, khaaskar jab recent data ne US labor market ki strength dikhayi hai. Is se expectations kam ho gayi hain ke Federal Reserve aggressive policy easing karega. Is shift ki wajah se US Dollar aur mazid strong ho gaya hai, aur DXY apne highest level par chal raha hai is mahine mein. Isi liye USD/JPY pair bhi recent highs ki taraf push ho rahi hai.Meray khayal se buyers bohot jald ek long-term journey start karenge towards 165 170 levels. Humein dono technical aur fundamental analysis ko follow karna chahiye taake apne accounts ko wisely protect kar saken.

Chart humein overall bearish trend mein price movement dikhata hai, jismein lagatar girawat dekhi ja sakti hai. Is chart mein multiple moving averages dikhaye gaye hain, jo ke price ke upar hain. Yeh moving averages ke price ke upar hone ka matlab yeh hai ke downtrend ka continuation strong hai, aur abhi tak koi reversal ka signal nazar nahi aata. Moving averages ka yeh placement confirm karta hai ke market mein abhi tak selling pressure dominate kar raha hai.
Chart mein candles ki positioning bhi lower highs aur lower lows bana rahi hai, jo ke ek classic bearish pattern hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke har upar ki taraf correction ke baad price phir se neeche ki taraf jati hai, jo ke sellers ke strong hone ka indication hai. Buyers ki taraf se koi khaas support nazar nahi aata jo price ko sustain kar sake, is wajah se girawat mein consistency hai.
Neeche chart mein ek oscillator indicator bhi maujood hai, jo ke MACD lagta hai. Yeh indicator bhi neeche ki taraf move kar raha hai aur uska histogram negative side par hai. Is se yeh signal milta hai ke momentum abhi bhi bearish hai aur selling pressure mein kami ka koi nishan nahi hai. Jab tak MACD ya koi aur momentum indicator positive side par cross nahi karta, tab tak trend reversal ki umeed kam hai. Agar aane wale dino mein price kisi important support level ko test karti hai, toh yeh support break hone par market aur bhi neeche ja sakti hai. Lekin agar kuch buying interest dikhaya gaya aur price kuch resistance levels ko test karti hai ya moving averages ko cross karne ki koshish karti hai, toh yeh ek temporary retracement ho sakta hai. Lekin filhal ke price action aur indicators ke hisaab se, yeh strategy behtar hogi ke selling ke liye opportunities dekhi jayein jab bhi price thoda upar correction kare. Short-sellers ke liye ye ek ideal setup hai jahan retracement ke doran naye entry points mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi unexpected reversal ke liye stop-loss lagana zaroori hai, taake risk management sahi tareeke se ho.

USD/JPY currency pair is waqt 155.87 ke level par mojood hai aur daily chart par ek strong bullish trend dikhayi de rahi hai. Japanese yen ki qeemat mein dobara kami is ki temporary izafa ke baad jaari hai, jis ke baais pair mein bina kisi khaas correction ke izafa ho raha hai. Iss trend se pair ki volatility aur Bank of Japan ke mumkinah bayanaat ya iqdaamaat ki sensitivity zahir hoti hai, kyunke ghair mutawaqqa policy faislay achanak aur ghair mamooli qeematon mein tabdeeli la sakte hain.Technical analysis ke lehaz se, USD/JPY ne haal hi mein ahm muqablaati levels 153.49 aur 154.96 ko cross kiya hai aur ab aik stable trend channel ke zariye upar ki taraf barh rahi hai. Pair ne thori si correction ke baad bhi upar ki taraf apna safar barqarar rakha hua hai aur ab mumkinah targets 156.80 aur 158.40 ke qareeb hain. Iske ilawa, pair Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) ke neechay hisay ke qareeb pohanch rahi hai, jo ke mazeed bullish continuation ke imkanat ko zahir karti hai agar is zone ke andar muqablaati levels ko cross kiya jaye.Agar pair mein koi reversal ho to pehla support level 154.38 hoga, jis ke baad 154.00 aur Senkou Span A par 153.93 par mazeed support hogi. Mazeed, tajir "ABC" corrective wave pattern ke mukammal hone ka jaiza le rahe hain, jo July ki choti ke baad shuru hua tha. Yeh pattern ya to upar ki taraf ke trend ko barqarar rakhne ya jama hone ke marhale ka ishara de sakta hai.Khusra yeh hai ke USD/JPY ki direction is taraf ishara karti hai ke mumkinah tor par ane wale hafton mein is saal ki buland tareen level 162.00 ko pohoncha ja sakta hai, jo yen ki qeemat mein kami aur sahih technical factors se mutasir hai. Haan, lekin tajiron ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye aur Bank of Japan ke announcements aur kisi bhi global economic tabdeeliyon par nazar rakhni chahiye jo ke pair ki volatility par asar andaz ho sakti hain.

USD/JPY H1 Chart Analysis
USD/JPY ka 1-hour timeframe ka chart humein upward (bullish) trend show kar raha hai. Yeh trend recent price action aur kuch technical indicators ki base par samjha ja sakta hai. Current price 156.00 ke aas paas hai, jo ke pehle se aik steady upward movement ko demonstrate kar rahi hai. Chart mein green dots Parabolic SAR indicator ke through dikhaye gaye hain. Yeh dots hamesha price ke neeche hain, jo ke bullish trend ko confirm karte hain. Jab tak yeh dots price ke neeche hain, yeh indication hai ke trend upward hi continue rehne ke chances hain. Agar yeh dots price ke upar shift ho jaayein to yeh trend reversal ka signal ho sakta hai, matlab price neeche ki taraf move kar sakti hai. Yeh red color se aik trendline draw ki gayi hai jo recent price movement ka support line ka kaam kar rahi hai. Yeh trendline upward movement ko follow kar rahi hai aur ek strong support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Agar price is trendline ke neeche close hoti hai, to yeh breakdown ka indication de sakti hai, aur bearish movement start ho sakta hai. Neeche stochastic oscillator dikhaya gaya hai jo momentum aur overbought/oversold zones ko indicate karta hai. Stochastic oscillator abhi 70 ke kareeb hai, jo overbought zone ko show karta hai. Yeh zone indicate karta hai ke price upar chuki hai aur kuch waqt ke liye bearish reversal ya sideways move aasakta hai. Yeh short term mein selling ya profit-taking ka signal bhi de sakta hai, lekin iske liye humein aur confirmation indicators ki zaroorat hogi. Is waqt USD/JPY ka trend overall bullish lag raha hai, lekin stochastic oscillator aur trendline ka breakdown kuch bearish signals bhi de sakte hain. Agar aap long position hold kar rahe hain to trailing stop-loss lagana aik achi strategy ho sakti hai taake aap profit ko lock kar sakein. Short position tab consider ki ja sakti hai jab stochastic oscillator aur Parabolic SAR reversal signals confirm karein.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY Ka Technical Analysis aur Overview
1. USD/JPY Ka Current Trend
USD/JPY currency pair me recent trend strong hai aur bullish side par hai. Yen (JPY) ki value kam ho rahi hai jab ke US Dollar (USD) ka demand barh rahi hai, jo ke is pair ko upar le ja raha hai. Japan ki taraf se monetary policies bohat zyada dovish hain, yani unka central bank, Bank of Japan (BoJ), low interest rate policies ko continue rakh raha hai. Iss wajah se investors USD/JPY pair me sell karte hain yen ko aur buy karte hain dollar ko. Dollar ki strong demand aur BoJ ki policy ki wajah se, USD/JPY mein further upside momentum ka chance hai.

2. Key Support aur Resistance Levels
Technical analysis ki madad se, kuch important support aur resistance levels identify hote hain jo trade plan karne me help karte hain.

Resistance Levels: Agar dekha jaye, pehla resistance level around 150.50 ka hai. Yeh level cross ho jaye to next resistance 152.00 ke qareeb aasakta hai.

Support Levels: Agar price niche ki taraf retrace kare, to 148.00 pehla support level hai. Uske baad, 146.50 par doosra support aata hai, jo ek strong buying area ban sakta hai agar price niche aaye.


3. Fundamental Factors jo Impact Kar Sakte Hain
Fundamental factors, jese US ke economic data releases jaise Non-Farm Payrolls, inflation reports, aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki policies ka impact hota hai is pair par. Agar US economic data strong aata hai, to Fed apni policy aur bhi hawkish rakh sakta hai, jo dollar ko support karega aur USD/JPY aur upar move karega. Doosri taraf, agar Japan ke inflation levels barhte hain to Bank of Japan ko apni policy me thodi si tightening karni par sakti hai, jo yen ko support de sakta hai.

4. Future Outlook aur Trading Strategy
USD/JPY ki trading strategy develop karte waqt traders ko recent trend aur economic indicators par focus karna chahiye. Agar trend bullish hai to buy on dips strategy ko prefer karein aur resistance levels par profit book karen. Lekin, agar koi unexpected hawkish comment BoJ ki taraf se aata hai ya phir US economic data weak aata hai, to USD/JPY me retracement dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Long-term investors ko ye bhi dekhna chahiye ke Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki policies kis taraf ja rahi hain, kyunke yeh donon currencies ke future trend me key role play karte hain.

In sab factors ko dekhte hue, USD/JPY me trading karne ke liye careful planning aur risk management zaroori hai.

USD/JPY ka daily timeframe ka chart hai jismein humne Fibonacci retracement levels aur RSI indicator ka analysis kiya hai. Yeh dono tools hamein price ke aindah movement ke hawalay se bohot si valuable information dete hain.
Chart Analysis
Is chart mein humein July se August 2024 tak ki ek downtrend nazar aa rahi hai, jismein price ne lower levels ko touch kiya. Uske baad market mein bullish reversal aaya aur price upar ki taraf move karna shuru hui. Is wakat price 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ke qareeb hai jo ke 153.060 par hai. Yeh level ek strong resistance ka kaam kar sakta hai kyunki 38.2% aur 50.0% retracement levels aksar market mein turning points hote hain. Agla significant level 50.0% hai jo ke 149.100 par located hai. Agar price 38.2% level ko breakout kar leti hai, toh ye bullish momentum ko mazid strong karegi aur agla target 50.0% level ho sakta hai.
RSI Indicator
Chart ke neeche hamein RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator bhi dikh raha hai jo ke abhi 67.85 par hai. Yeh overbought zone ke kareeb hai kyunki 70 se upar ki RSI value indicate karti hai ke market mein buying pressure bohot high hai aur kisi waqt ek downward correction bhi aasakta hai. Agar RSI 70 se upar chali jati hai toh yeh potential reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai, jo price mein short-term bearish movement ka sabab ban sakta hai.
Possible Trading Strategy
Agar price 38.2% level ko successfully break karti hai toh ye ek bullish signal ho sakta hai aur traders apne buy positions ko wahan se initiate kar sakte hain, agla target 50.0% retracement level rakhte hue. Lekin agar price 38.2% par reject hoti hai, toh yeh ek downward correction ka indication hoga jo ke ek acha buying opportunity bhi ho sakta hai lower levels par.
Risk management ke tor par, agar aap buy position le rahe hain toh apne stop-loss ko current support levels ke neeche set karna zaroori hai. Overbought RSI ke bawajood, market ke trend ko dekhte hue aap buying side par zyada focus kar sakte hain magar ihtiyaat ke saath, kyunki RSI high levels par hai aur kisi waqt price mein thori si correction bhi hosakti hai.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
Pichlay hafte Japanese yen ne halka sa decline show kiya aur multiple highs tak pohanch gaya. 151.80 ke support level ko todne ke baad price ne rebound kiya aur sharply 154.75 tak pohanch gaya, jahan is ne significant resistance face ki. Lekin price ka target area tak nahi pohanchna abhi ongoing hai. Price chart ka movement ek supertrend zone se doosray tak shift karna market participants ki uncertainty ko show karta hai.

Technically, aaj ki trading session me hum uptrend ka resumption expect karte hain, jahan pair ko positive momentum milega simple moving average ki support se. Agar price 152.20 ke support se upar consolidate karta hai, to hum expect karte hain ke price 153.70 tod kar 154.00 tak pohanchay, phir 154.65 aur 155.00 ke levels target karay. Agar price ne 152.20 ke neeche stability show ki to yeh proposed scenario cancel ho sakta hai aur price 151.60 ka retest karay ga, jo negative trading session ki taraf le jayega.



Is waqt prices weekly highs ke kareeb hain aur slightly higher trade kar rahi hain. Main support area ko test kiya gaya aur is ne apni integrity maintain rakhi, jo ke uptrend ke relevance ko confirm karta hai. 151.80 ke upar strength maintain karna zaroori hai taake current situation ka continuation ho. Agar price repeatedly is level ka retest karta hai, to yeh ek nai wave ke liye rasta khol sakta hai, jo 156.54 aur 158.43 ke area ko target karegi.

Lekin agar support tod kar price 149.19 ke reversal level ke neeche stabilize hota hai, to yeh current scenario ko cancel karne ka signal ho ga.