usd/jpy ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Tuesday ko USD/JPY market ko 143.00 ke level ke ooper rehne ka challenge ho ga. Agar ye level support deta hai, toh bulls ke liye mazeed price upar dhakelna asaan ho jaye ga, aur wo 144.00 ke round mark ka target karein ge. Agar price 144.00 se upar jata hai, toh levels 144.70 aur 145.00 ke bhi exposed hone ka imkan hai. Magar agar price 143.00 ke neeche chali jati hai, toh bears ke paas acha mauqa hoga ke wo price ko neeche le jayein. Is surat mein pehla target 142.60 ho ga, aur agla target 142.00. Agar price 142.00 se neeche jata hai, toh levels 141.50 aur 141.30 ke exposed hone ka imkaan hai.

Daily trading chart ke signals upward movement ko indicate kar rahe hain, aur umeed hai ke price accordingly move karega. Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements ka tajzia kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart pe buying ka acha mauqa lag raha hai. Current price 142.168 pe hai, aur yeh level entry point ban sakta hai. Profit-taking ka target 145.450 set kiya gaya hai, jo buyers ke support se achieve ho sakta hai.

Jumeraat ko options ka expiration bhi nazar mein rakhna zaroori hai. Friday ko market ka comfort zone future growth ke liye support de raha tha, magar Monday aur Wednesday ke options call ke target tak nahi pohanch sake. Monday ke options ke liye agle strike levels current level se teen strike upar hain, jo mazid growth ka ishara dete hain. Magar Wednesday tak growth ke liye target karna theek nahi, kyun ke zero mark par expiration ho sakta hai, jo entry point ke liye ek confirmation tha. Resultant, pair mein 50 pips ka upward movement dekha gaya, lekin 143.49 ka target achieve nahi ho saka.

Japan ke Manufacturing PMI ke weak reports ke bawajood, retail sales ke behtar figures ne yen ke against bullish dollar market ko support diya. Lekin yaad rahein ke hum ek bearish trend mein hain, aur jitna upar pair jata hai, utna zyada imkaan hai ke bade sellers wapas market mein aa jayein. Intraday strategy ke liye, main Scenario #1 aur #2 pe zyada rely karunga.

Buy Signal: Scenario #1: Aaj main USD/JPY ko 144.52 ke entry point par buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon (jo chart pe green line se mark hai), aur target level 145.38 set kiya hai. 145.38 pe buy positions close kar ke sell positions open karne ka irada hai, jis se 30-35 pips ka opposite movement expect kiya ja sakta hai. Magar is se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark se ooper ho aur rising trend pe ho.

Scenario #2: Main USD/JPY ko tab bhi buy karne ka plan rakhta hoon jab 144.16 ke price level ka do dafa test ho, aur MACD oversold zone mein ho. Is se downward potential limited ho ga, aur market mein ek reversal dekhne ka imkaan ho sakta hai.

Market Movements USD/JPY ki Price Action par Base: USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ka analysis hamaray liye aaj ka central topic hoga. USD/JPY ne trading week ko 146.69 ke area par correction ke sath khatam kiya, aur upward trend ko continue rakha. Halankeh moving averages bearish trend dikha rahe hain, lekin prices 145.01 ke mark se upar hold kar rahi hain, jo ke US dollar par intense buyer pressure ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh bhi ke current levels se growth ka potential maujood hai. Iss point par hum ek potential price correction ka intezar kar sakte hain, jo ke support level 145.01 ke qareeb test ho sakta hai. Agar is ke baad rebound hota hai, to yeh pair ko 150.01 ke level se upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin agar pair girta hai aur 145.01 ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh decline ko continue karne ka signal hoga, aur possible target 142.01 area ke neeche ho sakta hai. Bull ne trend line break hone ke baad dobara control lene ki koshish ki, lekin unki efforts sirf trend line ko neeche se test karne tak mehdoood rahi, aur koi significant breakthrough nahi ho saka.
Dosri taraf, agar bulls dobara trend line ko break karne mein kamyab ho jate hain aur uske upar position secure kar lete hain, to yeh global trend ki restoration ka signal de sakta hai. General movement of average prices neeche ki taraf hai, aur dynamic filter bhi downward trend ko follow kar raha hai. Pehle dynamic filter ki control line correction ko support de rahi thi, lekin ab daily candle patterns yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke sellers gradually momentum gain kar rahe hain. Oscillator windows ke indicators, jisme dynamic RSI bhi shamil hai, neeche ki taraf turn ho rahe hain, halankeh dynamic RSI abhi channel ke upper limit ke neeche cross nahi hui. Junior RSI bhi dheere dheere neeche shift ho rahi hai, jab ke day aur week RSI neeche hai

BoJ ne yeh kaha hai ke agar ma'ashi halaat khaas tor par behtar hotay hain, to wo policy mein tabdeeliyan karne ke liye tayaar hain, lekin abhi ke liye wo apne maujooda rukh par qayam hain. Japanese ma'ashiyat ne kuch behtari ke asar dikhaye hain, jese ke Tankan ka bada manufacturing index teesre ruba mein 13 par barqarar raha. Yeh is baat ka izhar karta hai ke bade manufacturers ke liye operational halaat waqai mein mustahkam hain, jo market ki umeedon ke mutabiq hai. Iske ilawa, Japan ka unemployment rate August mein 2.5% tak gir gaya, jo July mein 2.7% tha, aur yeh market ki peshgoiyan 2.6% se behtar raha. Yen ki kamzori ka aik aur sabab incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ke dovish bayanat bhi hain. Ishiba ne kaha ke ma'ashi nikaas ko support karne ke liye raahnuma monetary policy ki zarurat hai, aur unhone low borrowing costs ki bhi baat ki. Unke bayanat BoJ ke rukh ke sath milte hain aur yen par downward pressure ko barhate hain. Dainik chart par Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ka rate Tuesday ko 144.10 ke ird gird trade hua. Technical analysis se yeh pata chala ke yeh aik ascending channel pattern mein wapas aa gaya hai, jo dikhata hai ke uptrend ab bhi mazboot hai. 14-day relative strength index, jo 50 ke level ke thoda neeche hai, yeh bhi izhar karta hai ke bullish breakout ka potential hai, jo uptrend ke jaari rehne ki tasdeeq karta hai. Resistance levels ki baat karain to USD/JPY pair ko 146.50 par ascending channel ke upper boundary ke nazdeek resistance ka samna karna par sakta hai, jo 5-week high 147.21 tak bhi pahuncha sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, channel ki lower limit 142.80 hai. Is level ke neeche girne se mazeed girawat ho sakti hai, jahan 139.58 ka area support ka potential rakhta hai, jo June 2023 ke baad se sabse neecha level hai. Aakhir mein, Japanese yen ki kami ka asal sabab BoJ ki raahnuma monetary policy, mukhtalif ma'ashi data, aur incoming Prime Minister ke dovish bayanat hain. USD/JPY pair ka technical analysis yeh dikhata hai ke uptrend jaari rahega, jahan resistance aur support levels ko pehchana gaya hai

USD/JPY pair ka movement iss waqt ek ahem mor par hai, jahan yeh 146.60 ke level ko ek bara psychological barrier bana raha hai. Yeh level apni historical ahmiyat ki wajah se buyers ke liye ek behtareen entry point ho sakta hai, jahan se ek rebound ki umeed ki jaa sakti hai. Agar yeh pair in support levels ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam ho jata hai, toh ek bara sell-off ho sakta hai, jo traders ko bearish trend mein mauqa de kar apni positions lena ke liye entice karega.

**Resistance Challenges**

Doosri taraf, 149.00 ka level USD/JPY pair ke liye ek bara challenge hai. Yeh level upward momentum ko rokne mein ahem kirdar ada karta hai. Agar yeh pair is level ko paar nahi kar pata, toh yeh bullish sentiment ke kamzor hone ka ishara ho sakta hai, jis ke baad profit-taking shuru ho sakti hai aur pair dobara support areas ki taraf wapas aa sakta hai. Yeh critical levels ke qareeb rehna iska matlab hai ke agar yeh resistance ko paar karne mein nakam ho jata hai, toh retracement shuru ho sakti hai, jo traders ke liye nayi risk-reward opportunities paida kar sakta hai.

**Economic Context**

Broader economic backdrop bhi iss analysis ko bohot affect karta hai. Market is waqt kuch ahem economic data releases ka intezar kar rahi hai, khaaskar Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report ka. Yeh report US economic health ka ek ahem indicator hai aur historically USD/JPY ke movement ko bohot asar daalti hai. Agar NFP report strong hoti hai, toh yeh US dollar ko aur bhi mazboot kar sakti hai, jo bullish sentiment ko barhawa de sakti hai aur 149.00 resistance ke level ko paar karne mein madadgar ho sakti hai. Wohi agar report weak hoti hai, toh bearish pressures barh sakte hain, jisse pair neechay mentioned support levels ki taraf ja sakta hai.

**Conclusion**

Akhir mein, traders ko USD/JPY pair ke behavior ko in critical support aur resistance levels par bohot ghor se dekhna chahiye, khas tor par jab aane wala economic data release hone wala ho. Technical levels aur fundamental indicators ka combination pair ke future direction ko decide karega. Trading ke liye yeh waqt intehai ahem hai, aur har naye development ke sath risk management aur strategy ka tayar rehna zaroori hai.

USD/JPY ke haal hi ke girawat ki wajah zyada tar bazar mein 25 basis point (bps) rate cut ki umeedain hain, jo ke Fed ke aane wale September 17-18 ke meeting mein discuss ki jayein gi. Halankeh recent tezi dekhi gayi hai, lekin yeh umeedain US Dollar (USD) ko apne faiday ko mazeed barhane se rok rahi hain. Dosri taraf, bazar mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan Japanese Yen ki safe-haven asset ke tor par demand ko barhawa de raha hai, jo USD/JPY pair par mazeed dabao daal raha hai. Saath hi, BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ne tasdeeq ki hai ke bank FY2025 tak interest rates ko barhane ka plan bana raha hai, jo Fed ke umeed ke mutabiq rate cut ke bilkul baraks hai, aur yeh pair ke neeche ki taraf trend ko mazeed barhawa de raha hai. Traders filhal ehtiyaat se kaam le rahe hain aur koi faisla karnay se pehle US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke Fed ke agle policy qadam ke hawale se ahem maloomat faraham karega aur USD/JPY pair ke short-term outlook ko mutasir karega. Technical Tajziya: Technical lehaz se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair mein waazeh bearish signals dekhnay ko mil rahe hain. Is waqt, yeh pair apne roz ke opening level 143.20 se neeche trade kar raha hai aur daily Pivot level 142.95 ke qareeb hai. Qeemat moving average trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo ek ahem level hota hai jahan volume distribution aam tor par hoti hai, aur yeh strong selling pressure ko zahir karta hai. Agar qeemat 143.20 level ke upar chali jati hai, to mazeed izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai jo resistance levels 143.69 aur 143.75 tak jasakta hai. Agar qeemat 142.95 level ke neeche girti hai, to umeed hai ke yeh aur neeche jaegi aur support levels 142.74 aur shayad 142.20 tak gir sakti hai. Yeh pair apne monthly Pivot level 146.24 aur weekly Pivot level 143.75 ke neeche bhi trade kar raha hai, jo ek corrective mood ko zahir karta hai. Hourly chart mein, yeh pair apni pehle ki range 143.69 se 142.14 ke neeche chala gaya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke sellers filhal bazar mein haawi hain. Lekin traders ko ek mumkin false breakout se ehtiyaat karni chahiye. Kul mila kar, technical indicators ek bearish outlook ko support karte hain, aur agar pair key support levels ke neeche trade karta raha, to mazeed girawat dekhne k USD/JPY ne do mukhtalif directions mein move kiya

momentum dikhaya, jo kay kai liquidity grabs aur displaced liquidity (DLiq) zones ke formation ki wajah se trigger hua. Price action ne May aur phir June mein top liquidity zones ko touch karne ke baad neeche ki taraf move kiya, aur is dauran fair value gaps (FVG) ka samna kiya jo potential reversals ya pullbacks ka ishara de rahe thay. Chart mein kayi liquidity pools ko highlight kiya gaya hai, jo top aur bottom dono taraf se sweep kiye gaye, jo yeh confirm karta hai ke market in imbalances ko fill karna chahta hai. Jab price 140.000 level ke qareeb pohanchi, toh buyers ne August ke aakhri dino mein bane displaced liquidity area ko defend kiya. Yeh level, jo ek strong liquidity grab ke sath coincides karta hai, ne thodi recovery di, jo ke pair ko 144.000 region tak wapas le gaya. Lekin recent rise ko ab bhi pehle ke liquidity areas aur FVGs ke qareeb 148.000 par resistance ka samna hai, jo yeh signal deta hai ke agar price in zones ko convincingly breach nahi kar paya, toh ek potential reversal ho sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, displaced liquidity zone jo ke 140.000 ke qareeb hai, ek significant support area serve karta hai. Agar price apni current upward momentum ko barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahta hai, toh yeh level dobara test ho sakta hai, aur agar yeh break ho gaya, toh further downside risks badh sakte hain. Agla major support 136.000-137.000 range ke qareeb hai, jahan is saal ke shuru mein pehli baar liquidity sweep hui thi. Aage chal kar, agar USD/JPY 148.000 resistance ko breach karne mein kaamyab ho jata hai aur us FVG ko fill kar leta hai jo us level ke qareeb hai, toh 150.000 aur us se upar ka move zyada likely ho jata hai. Lekin, bias ab bhi cautious hai, aur market participants liquidity zones aur FVGs ko closely dekh rahe hain. Agar price resistance breach karne mein nakam rehta hai, toh renewed selling pressure aa sakta hai, agar agar global risk sentiment negative ho gaya. Overall structure short term mein consolidation ya mild bullish corrections suggest karta hai, lekin longer-term trend liquidity zones ke respect ya violation par mabni ho sakta hai

USD/JPY ne 144.53 ke key support level ko break kiya, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke downtrend jaari reh sakta hai. Is breakout ke baad, pair 99 points gir gaya lekin phir ek correction ki koshish ki, jisme buyers ne price ko wapas 144.53 ke resistance level tak push kiya. Iss point par sell positions open karna behthreen move ho sakta hai, aur 140-141 range ki taraf mazeed girawat ka target set kiya ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair 144.53 resistance level se rebound karta hai, toh recovery jaari reh sakti hai, aur agla target 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart mein ek ascending channel dikhai de raha hai jo flag pattern se milta julta hai, jo is baat ka ishara karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par, pair ek descending channel mein move kar raha hai aur abhi uski lower boundary se bounce hua hai. Agar price 144.49 se break hoti hai, toh 145.69 ka target rakhte hue buying strategy viable ho sakti hai. Friday ko Japanese Yen (JPY) ne US Dollar (USD) ke against 14-mahinon ka low touch kiya, jo 140.41 tha. Ye girawat zyada market trend ka hissa hai jahan JPY kamzor ho raha hai, zyada ter Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke monetary policy changes ki wajah se. BoJ ne recently apni policy ko hawkish banate hue interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya, jisse Yen carry trade ka unwinding hua. Yen ko support "Yenterventions" ke zariye bhi mila, jo multi-decade lows se recover karte hue 12.5% barh gaya USD ke against. Abhi ka market sentiment Yen ke hawale se monetary policy changes, market interventions, aur global economic factors ka aik pechida mix darshata hai. Yen ka Mustaqbil Yen ka historic lows se recovery aur recent USD ke against movements currency markets ki fluid nature aur policymakers ke liye challenges ko highlight karti hain. BoJ ki monetary policy ka mustaqbil abhi bhi unsure hai, Jahan officials ne mazed rate hikes ka ishara diya hai. Lekin isko cautious approach kiya ja raha hai, heightened market volatility ki wajah se. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne zor diya ke BoJ market conditions ko closely monitor karega, lekin monetary policy ke hawale se koi bhi faislay BoJ ke ikhtiyar mein hi rahenge. Ye careful approach yeh darshata hai ke economic growth ko stimulate karna aur currency stability ko maintain karna donon mein

USD/JPY/H1

Iss Jumma, USDJPY market dobara 157.00 ke psychological resistance level se samna karega. Yeh level market mein price ke agle zyada mumkin rukh ko tay karega. Agar yeh level toot jaye toh bulls ko ooper ki taraf push karne ke liye taqat milegi. Agar yeh kamyaab na ho, toh bears ko larai karne aur price ko neeche le jane ke liye achi wajah milegi. Yeh level pehle bhi bulls ko nakam kiya hai aur sawal hai ke aaj bhi yehi mamla dohraega? Ya phir is level ko tootne ka moka milega? Daily trading diagram ke technical setting ke mutabiq lagta hai ke bullish movement ko support mil raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.00 ke ooper hai, jo ke upar ki taraf ishara karta hai aur agar price is direction mein chale, toh jald hi hum 157.00 ke level ko dekh sakte hain. Agar yeh level paar ho jaye toh price 157.70 tak ja sakta hai, jisme se guzar kar 158.00 ke psychological level ko attack kiya ja sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, agar 157.00 ka resistance level qaim rahega, toh bears 156.00 price mark ki taraf ja sakte hain. Is level ke neeche, bearish targets 155.300 hain. Is level ke neeche, psychological significant support level 155.00 hai. Agar yeh level toot jaye toh pair apni haar ko extend kar sakta hai. Char ghante ki trading diagram bullish signals de rahi hai aur price pehle se ooper ki taraf move kar raha hai. Technical indicators bhi bullish hain aur main ummeed karta hoon ke quotes 157.00 ke level ki taraf uthayenge. Lekin agar yeh level kamyaab gira ho toh 156.30 ke level ko expose kar sakta hai. Is level ke neeche 156.00 aur 155.70 hain. Agar price ooper jaaye, toh main ummeed karta hoon ke quotes 157.70 ke level ke ooper jaayenge. Is level ke ooper, buyers ke liye points of interest 157.00 aur 157.70 hain. Is level ke ooper, bulls ko 157.90 mein interest ho sakta hai. Well, chalen dekhte hain ke aane waale waqton mein kya hota hai. Sab ko aik acha weekend guzarne ka!

Main USD/JPY currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ko real-time mein dekh raha tha, aur main is waqt dollar-yen pair ko four-hour chart par analyze kar raha hoon. Yeh pair barh raha tha jab second profit-taking ka amal buyer ne kiya, jo ke price ke growth ke saath actively apna profit le raha hai. Lekin jab previous correction highs ko update kiya gaya, to kisi khaas profit-taking ko nahi dekha gaya. Is ke bajaye, pair bina kisi rukawat ke barhta raha, aur phir week ke aakhir mein ek zyada bara pullback dekha gaya. Pair ne support level 160.756 ko touch kiya, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh support se barh kar resistance level 164.318 tak jaa sakta hai. Maine Friday ko resistance line of the ascending channel se breakdown area tak (jo ke kareeb 160.115 hai) bearish pullback ka theek andaza lagaya tha. Lekin short position open karne se pehle, maine channel ki resistance line ke qareeb ek "bullish doji" ka intezaar kiya, umeed thi ke ek puncture hoga aur phir pullback dekhne ko milega.

Ek theory bhi saamne aayi ke market mein latecomers ke long positions ke recruitment se mazeed long positions trend ke sath develop hoti hain. Is market perspective ke basis par, aur channel resistance zone mein ek bearish divergence ke dauran, maine apni sell limit ko chhupa diya aur ek trading setup ka intezaar kiya. Afsos ke expected movement samne nahi aayi, aur market pullback ke liye reverse ho gayi baghair channel resistance strength ko test kiye. Maine market mein jaldi entry nahi ki aur ehtiyaat se kaam liya. Natija yeh hua ke Friday ko bearish pullback ka sahi andaza lagane ke bawajood, maine trade nahi kiya aur market ke bahar se poori decline ko dekhta raha. Mujhe is baat ka afsos hai ke main 160.06 level ke neeche price ko secure nahi kar saka. Lekin main yeh bhi samajhta hoon ke shayad maine kuch zyada intezaar kiya aur sab kuch tezi se unfold nahi hua. Isliye, main abhi bhi apne downward movement ke outlook ko barqarar rakhta hoon, aur mera maanna hai ke ab humein growth cycle jo ke 154.57 se 161.97 tak gayi thi, usmein ek corrective movement par focus karna chahiye. Agar yeh reasoning theek hai, to humein 38.2 level (159.14) ka test dekhne ko milna chahiye.

ke baad pair ne 99 points ka girawat dekha aur phir upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai. Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi mojood hai. Bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 20 din ka high 144.50 touch kiya tha. Sellers ne control hasil karne ki koshish ki, lekin price ko effectively niche nahi le jaa paye. Maine ek ahem support area 143.49 aur 143.77 ke darmiyan dekha hai, jo prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin market ke close ke qareeb, asset ne resistance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur double tops aur bottoms fifteen-minute chart par dekhay gaye. Jumlay se ye zahir hota hai ke USA mein economic growth ke hawalay se uncertainties ka asar USD/JPY ke price par par raha hai. Ueda ki ehtiyaati rhetoric ne 2024 mein ek aur BoJ rate hike ke chances kam kar diye hain

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### اسٹوکاسٹک کرف کا تجزیہ

اسٹوکاسٹک کرف بھی مندی کی طرف جا رہا ہے، جس سے ظاہر ہوتا ہے کہ رجحان مندی کا ہے۔ اوپن قیمت اور sma5 کے مزاحمتی لیول کے درمیان موجود گیپ یہ ظاہر کرتا ہے کہ قیمت اپنی نیچے کی جانب حرکت جاری رکھنے سے پہلے اس متحرک مزاحمتی لیول تک درست ہو سکتی ہے۔ اس صورتحال میں سیل پوزیشنز کے لیے ممکنہ انٹری پوائنٹس بن سکتے ہیں، جنہیں طلب میں ممکنہ کمی کی بنیاد پر کیش کیا جا سکتا ہے۔

### چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ کا جائزہ

شام کے وقت h4 چارٹ کا تجزیہ کرنے پر ایک ٹرائی اینگل پیٹرن دکھائی دیا۔ اس پیٹرن میں ایک بریک ہوئی، جس کے نتیجے میں قیمت عارضی طور پر بڑھی، جس سے مارکیٹ میں ایک مختصر سی امید اور سمت کی جھلک ملی۔ شمال کی طرف جانے کی تصدیق کے لیے، قیمت کو h4 کے اوپر کی جانب ریورسل لیولز کو عبور کرنا ہوگا، خاص طور پر 161.55 کے لیول کو عبور کرنا ضروری ہے۔ یہ لیول h4 کے زیگ زیگ کی نچلی سطح سے آنے والی ٹرینڈ لائن اور باقی ماندہ ٹرائی اینگل سپورٹ سے تقویت پاتا ہے۔

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بالآخر، اگر d1 قیمت زون کو جنوبی سمت میں توڑ دیتی ہے تو میری سیل کا فیصلہ مستحکم ہو جائے گا۔ میں آئندہ ہفتے مزید تفصیلات فراہم کروں گا۔ اپنی صبح کی تجزیہ اور نصیحت کے مطابق، میں جانتا ہوں کہ مجھے ڈیل کو 160.75 پر روک دینا چاہیے، کیونکہ ممکنہ جیت میری پوزیشن کے مقابلے میں پانچ گنا زیادہ ہوگی۔ اگر مارکیٹ میرے متوقع اہداف کی طرف نہیں بڑھتی تو میں خارج ہو کر کل کے دن کا از سر نو جائزہ لوں گا۔

### غیر یقینی صورتحال اور احتیاط

آنے والا دن ہمیشہ غیر یقینی ہوتا ہے، اور خبریں اس غیر یقینی صورتحال میں ایک اہم کردار ادا کرتی ہیں۔ بہتر ہے کہ محتاط رہیں بجائے اس کے کہ نقصان کا سامنا کیا جائے۔ فیڈرل ریزرو کے ولیمز کی دھیما موقف پر مبنی تبصرے اور جاپان کے کمزور کرنٹ اکاؤنٹ ڈیٹا کے بعد امریکی ڈالر مضبوط ہوا، جس کے نتیجے میں usd/jpy 36 پپس بڑھ کر 161.30 پر بند ہوا۔

USD/JPY pair ne August 16 ke baad apne sabse upper levels par rally kiya.


Lekin resistance ke baad decline hua.


Japan ke Vice Minister of Finance, Atsushi Mimura ke comments ne government intervention ki speculation ko badhaya.


Middle East mein geopolitical tensions aur global risk sentiment ne Japanese Yen ko safe-haven asset banaya.


USD/JPY exchange rate par downward pressure badhaya.


Recent decline ke bawajud, fundamental backdrop USD/JPY pair ke upward movement ko support karta hai.


Bank of Japan ki dovish stance interest rates ko raise hone ki possibility ko limit karta hai.


Japanese Yen ki appreciation ko limit karta hai.


FOMC meeting minutes aur US economic data jaise CPI aur PPI investors ko Federal Reserve ki monetary policy path ke clues denge.


Hawkish stance ki indications USD/JPY exchange rate ko upper push kar sakti hain.


Technical analysis mein, USD/JPY pair 20-day EMA ke qareeb trading kar raha hai.


50% Fibonacci retracement level par resistance ke baad.


Pair upward momentum ko regain karne ki koshish kar raha hai.


Lekin broken support trend line, 50-day SMA, aur September high resistance levels ko face karta hai.


Agar USD/JPY pair in resistance levels ko break karta hai, to upward trajectory ko continue kar sakta hai.


148.60 aur 149.40 ke levels par target kar sakta hai.




Lekin agar bears control regain karte hain, to price 20-day EMA ke neeche girta hai.


141.60 ke bottom par decline possible hai.


140.35 aur 140.00 ke levels par support mil sakta hai.


Lekin agar yeh levels break hote hain, to significant sell-off possible hai.


137.20-138.00 ke area par target ho sakta hai.


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Ya phir aap kisi search engine par aur information dhoondh sakte hain

Forex ko samajhne ke liye USD/JPY ke prices

Main real time mein USD/JPY currency pair ki dynamic pricing behavior ko dekh raha tha. Main dollar-yen pair ko chaar ghante ke chart par analyze kar raha hoon. Pair ne doosre profit-taking ke baad izafa kiya, jahan buyer ne actively profits lena jaari rakha. Lekin, pehle ke correction highs update hone ke baad koi significant profit-taking nahi hui. Is ke bawajood, pair bina kisi rukawat ke barh gaya, aur week ke end par ek zyada substantial pullback aaya. Pair ne 160.756 ke support level ko touch kiya, jo yeh darshata hai ke yeh support se barh sakta hai aur 164.318 tak resistance ka samna kar sakta hai. Maine resistance line se bearish pullback ko accurately predict kiya aur breakdown area par Friday ko around 160.115 ko dekha. Lekin short position kholne se pehle, maine channel ki resistance line ki taraf "bullish doji" ka intezar kiya, taake possible puncture ke baad pullback ki ummeed kar saku.

Ek theory ka samna aaya jo keh rahi thi ke latecomers jo market mein long positions khol rahe hain, woh trend ke sath aur long positions ko barhate hain. Is market perspective aur channel resistance zone mein bearish divergence ke bawajood, maine apni sell limit ko chhupaya aur trading setup ka intezar kiya. Afsos, expected movement nahi hui aur market ne channel resistance strength ko test kiye bina pullback kiya. Maine market mein hastily entry se bacha aur cautious raha. Isliye, jab ke maine Friday ko bearish pullback ko sahi se identify kiya, maine isko trade nahi kiya aur poora decline market ke bahar dekha. Mujhe 160.06 level ke neeche price secure nahi karne ka afsos hai. Lekin, main maanata hoon ke shayad maine zyada der tak intezar kiya aur sab kuch tez se nahi hua. Isliye, main apni downward movement ki outlook ko barqarar rakhta hoon, aur samajhta hoon ke ab hume 154.57 se 161.97 tak ke growth cycle mein corrective movement par focus karna chahiye. Agar yeh reasoning sahi hoti hai, to hume 38.2 level (159.14) ka test dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai. Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi

USD/JPY ki Price Action par Base: USD/JPY currency pair ki price action ka analysis hamaray liye aaj ka central topic hoga. USD/JPY ne trading week ko 146.69 ke area par correction ke sath khatam kiya, aur upward trend ko continue rakha. Halankeh moving averages bearish trend dikha rahe hain, lekin prices 145.01 ke mark se upar hold kar rahi hain, jo ke US dollar par intense buyer pressure ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh bhi ke current levels se growth ka potential maujood hai. Iss point par hum ek potential price correction ka intezar kar sakte hain, jo ke support level 145.01 ke qareeb test ho sakta hai. Agar is ke baad rebound hota hai, to yeh pair ko 150.01 ke level se upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin agar pair girta hai aur 145.01 ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh decline ko continue karne ka signal hoga, aur possible target 142.01 area ke neeche ho sakta hai. Bull ne trend line break hone ke baad dobara control lene ki koshish ki, lekin unki efforts sirf trend line ko neeche se test karne tak mehdoood rahi, aur koi significant breakthrough nahi ho saka. Dosri taraf, agar bulls dobara trend line ko break karne mein kamyab ho jate hain aur uske upar position secure kar lete hain, to yeh global trend ki restoration ka signal de sakta hai. General movement of average prices neeche ki taraf hai, aur dynamic filter bhi downward trend ko follow kar raha hai. Pehle dynamic filter ki control line correction ko support de rahi thi, lekin ab daily candle patterns yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke sellers gradually momentum gain kar rahe hain. Oscillator windows ke indicators, jisme dynamic RSI bhi shamil hai, neeche ki taraf turn ho rahe hain, halankeh dynamic RSI abhi channel ke upper limit ke neeche cross nahi hui. Junior RSI bhi dheere dheere neeche shift ho rahi hai, jab ke day aur week RSI neeche hai


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