USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/PY Fundamental Analysis
Guzaarish ke do dinon mein, USD/JPY currency pair ne economic aur geopolitical factors ki wajah se significant fluctuations experience ki hain. 5 August ko, yen ne 7 mahine ki high par strengthen kiya jab Japanese authorities ne currency market mein intervene kiya, approximately 5.53 trillion yen spend kiya currency ko support karne ke liye. Yeh intervention partially 10-year Japanese government bond ki yield mein drop se drive kiya gaya, jo 0.8% se below gir gaya Federal Reserve ki expectations ke baad ki aggressive interest rate cuts karne ke liye weak US jobs data ke baad.

Usi din, Bank of Japan ne unexpected rate hike announce kiya, apne benchmark interest rate ko 0.25% par raise kiya aur economic conditions supportive rehne par rates ko continue raise karne ki willingness show ki. Yeh move Japan ki economic challenges ke baad aaya, jaise private consumption mein decline aur economy mein contraction.

US ne disappointing economic data ka saamna kiya, jaise weak manufacturing PMI aur economic slowdown ki concerns. Yeh factors, US stock futures mein decline aur USD/JPY pair par pressure add karne ke liye lower-than-expected US earnings reports ke saath, Federal Reserve ki commentary ne US labor market ko protect karne ki bat ki, jo aggressive rate cuts ko delay kar sakti hai.

Overall, hawkish stance aur Fed ki cautious approach ne economic uncertainties ke beech volatile environment create kiya hai USD/JPY pair ke liye. Investors central bank policies aur economic data ko closely monitor kar rahe hain future movements ko gauge karne ke liye, US jobs report aur both central banks se further monetary policy adjustments par significant attention de rahe hain.

Forecast & Trading Strategy:

Aaj, main US dollar index ko good value par dekh raha hoon. Isliye, USD/JPY ne 146.00 ki high ko break kiya. Is level ko break karne ke baad, humne quote ko broken resistance par dekh kar rebound kiya. Yeh means US dollar Japanese yen ke against stronger ho raha hai. Daily chart mein do bottoms current price level ke near hain, jo currency price ke resistance act karte hain.

USD/JPY lagbhag 100 pips tak barh gaya. Aaj, buyers ne kal ke high ko test karne mein kamiyabi hasil ki. Lekin uske baad pair par pressure wapas aaya, jo ye darshaata hai ke market mein bade sellers mojood hain jo aane wale hafton mein dollar ke niche jaane par wager kar rahe hain. Japan mein money supply data ka market par koi khaas asar nahi pada
Strategy ke liye, mein ziada tawajju scenario No. 1 aur 2 ko implement karne par doon ga
Buy signals
**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj, mein USD/JPY khareedne ka plan bana raha hoon jab price entry point par pohonch jaye jo ke chart par green line se 147.20 ke aas paas plot ki gayi hai, aur maqsad 148.27 tak pahunchna hai jo ke chart par thicker green line se plot ki gayi hai. 148.27 par, mein long positions exit karoon ga aur opposite direction mein short ones open karoon ga, aur 30-35 pips ka movement opposite direction mein expect karoon ga. Aaj pair ke upar rise hone ki umeed hai jo ek upward correction ka hissa hai. Lekin jitna upar pair jaye ga, dollar bechna utna hi attractive hoga. Zaroori hai ke khareedne se pehle ensure karein ke indicator zero mark se upar hai aur wahan se rise ho raha hai
**Scenario No. 2:** Mein aaj USD/JPY khareedne ka plan kar raha hoon agar do martaba consecutive tests 146.58 par hoti hai jab indicator oversold area mein ho. Ye pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reverse upturn laega. Growth 147.20 aur 148.27 ke opposite levels tak expect ki ja sakti hai
Sell signals
**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj mein USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon sirf us waqt jab 146.58 ka test ho jaye jo ke chart par red line se plot ki gayi hai, jo pair mein tezi se decline laega. Sellers ka key target 145.63 ho ga, jahan mein short positions exit karoon ga aur foran opposite direction mein long positions open karoon ga, aur 20-25 pips ka movement opposite direction mein expect karoon ga. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khaaskar agar din ke pehle hisse mein unsuccessful correction ho aur daily high ka test na ho sake. Zaroori hai ke bechne se pehle ensure karein ke indicator zero mark se niche hai aur wahan se decline shuru ho raha hai
**Scenario No. 2:** Mein aaj USD/JPY bechne ka plan kar raha hoon agar do martaba consecutive price tests 147.20 par hoti hain jab indicator overbought area mein ho. Ye pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market mein reverse downturn laega. Decline 146.58 ke opposite level tak expect kiya ja sakta hai

USD/JPY currency pair ki live pricing ko decode karne par mabni hai. USD/JPY pair is waqt ek descending channel mein trade kar raha hai aur downward trend ko maintain kar raha hai. Pair ne EMA 50 se bounce back kiya hai aur ab 145.35 ke critical support level ko target kar raha hai. Yeh level pehle hi test kiya ja chuka hai, jo is baat ka signal hai ke pair agle targets 143.99 aur 142.14 ki taraf further decline kar sakta hai. Isi liye, recommendation yeh hai ke selling par focus karna chahiye, aur stop-loss resistance 146.59 ke upar set karna chahiye.
USD/JPY ne kal ke lows ko hit karne ke baad ek correction phase mein entry ki hai. Aaj market Federal Reserve se ahem khabron ka intezar kar raha hai, khaas tor par minutes release aur labor market data ki revision ka. Yeh data agar significant revise hota hai, to iska asar zyada ho sakta hai, jisse speculation shuru ho sakti hai ke September mein Fed 50-point ka rate cut karega, jo dollar ki weakness ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Abhi ke analysis ko dekhte hue, NPI with Distances indicator ke zariye buying opportunities sabse faydemand strategy hai. Zigzag indicator bhi upward trend show kar raha hai, jo long positions ki taraf trade karne ko reinforce karta hai. Saath hi oscillators bhi buyers ke liye favorable zone mein hain, is liye mein apni position ko 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ke 152,299 price level tak maintain karne ka plan bana raha hoon.

Recent hafton mein price drop chhota raha hai, jo ek prolonged upward trend ke baad aaya hai. Aaj ke din ki news limited hai, sirf Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ke minutes ka release hai jo shaam mein hoga. Magar yeh news critical nahi hai kyun ke minutes mein interest rate ka faisla shamil nahi hoga

USD/JPY ke prices ki live evaluation ke sath humari conversation align ho rahi hai. 141.74 support zone mein swift drop ne risk management ko neglect karne wale traders ke liye risks ko highlight kiya, jo quick gains ke liye target kar rahe the lekin jisne significant losses mein badal sakte hain.

Japan ki economy ke critical reports ke release ke baad, jahan central bank ne interest rate ko 2.4% tak increase kiya, humne Japanese yen ki remarkable strengthening dekhi, jisne rival currencies mein significant decline kiya.

Technical standpoint se, high-volatility instrument ko forecast karna challenging hai, lekin uski volatility aur potential impact ko consider karna zaroori hai. Daily hourly chart par 148.01 level ke paas sideways trend form hui hai, jahan price is mark ko break nahi kar saka. Large player ki presence evident hai, aur yeh zaroori hai, kyunki current resistance zone se breakout significant price move ko lead kar sakta hai.

Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ki smaller lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein potential losses ko minimize karne ke liye, kyunki situation rapidly adverse turn ho sakti hai.

Dollar-yen pair ke liye, humne hourly chart par decline dekha, phir rise dekha jo 147.103 resistance ko break kiya. Yeh breakout ne buy signal generate kiya jo 151.644 resistance level ko target kar raha tha. Lekin yeh signal misleading tha, kyunki price Friday ko is level se neeche gir gaya. False breakout tab hua jab price ne is resistance ko above se break kiya.

Monday ko new buy signal emerge hua, phir se 151.644 resistance ko target karte hue, aur price ne yeh target achieve kiya. Subsequently, yeh level par Tuesday ko retrace hua, phir upward movement ki attempt ki, lekin phir se broken level par gir gaya. Breakout confirm hua, aur kal ke target ko 151.644 resistance par set kiya gaya

Ab senior weekly chart par USDJPY currency pair ke nazar se dekh sakte hain ke price pichle kuch hafton mein tezi se gir gayi hai. Yahan technical indicators ka zikar hai, jinmein se sabse aham bearish divergence hai jo MACD indicator par nazar aa rahi hai. Dusra indicator, CCI, bhi upar ke point par bearish divergence dikha raha tha, magar thoda chhota tha. Girawat ke liye fundamental reasons bhi hain. Bank of Japan ne apni national currency ke kamzor hone ko bardasht karne se thak gaya hai, market mein billions inject karne ke bawajood madad nahi mili aur unhein interest rate barhana pada. Iske baad ek bade scale ka girawat shuru ho gaya. Girawat ke doran 152.17 ka level toota aur phir ascending line bhi tooti. Price lagbhag 140.81 ke support level tak pohnch gayi thi, lekin usse poori tarah nahi pohnchi. Ek upward correction shuru hui aur yeh pata chala ke broken ascending line se niche se touch hui hai, yahan se ek naye girawat ka daura shuru ho sakta hai. Magar CCI indicator confused kar raha hai, jo lower overheating zone mein deep chala gaya hai. Upar ka rollback shayad aur bhi gehra ho sakta hai, yahan dekhna padega ke price H4 par kis tarah se behave kar rahi hai, kya further growth ke liye koi indications hain ya decline shuru karna hai. Yeh situation unclear hai, mujhe lagta hai ke buyers aur sellers ke chances barabar hain

H4 chart par. Is period par, price lagbhag stuck nazar aati hai, yeh pehle broken daily line se niche se approach kar rahi hai aur support level 146.02 isse neeche jaane se rok raha hai. Is level ka test upar se hua aur price upar chali gayi, jabke potential ab bhi zyada hai. Agar price 146.02 ke support level ke neeche successfully consolidate hoti hai to selling consider kiya ja sakta hai. Breakout ke baad is level ka niche se test hona sabse achha point hai

USD/JPY pair mazbooti se bearish trend mein hai. Is neeche ki taraf chalne ka sabab kai economic factors hain jo United States aur Japan dono ko asar daal rahe hain. US dollar par pressure hai kyunki mixed economic data aur inflation ke bare mein concerns hain, saath hi Federal Reserve ke aane wale monetary policy decisions ka bhi asar hai. Haal ke reports ne darshaya hai ke US economy ke mukhtalif sectors mein growth dheemi ho rahi hai, jo Fed ke actions ke bare mein speculation ko janam de raha hai aur is wajah se dollar ke liye bearish sentiment bana hua hai.

Dusri taraf, Japanese yen ne relative strength dikhai hai, jo Japan ki stable economic conditions aur iski safe-haven currency ki haisiyat se hai. Global uncertainty ke waqt, investors aksar yen ki taraf ruk karte hain, jisne iski value ko dollar ke muqablay mein barhaya hai. Japan ke haal ke economic indicators ne resilience dikhai hai, jo yen par confidence ko aur mazbooti deta hai.

### **Technical Analysis**

Technical perspective se, USD/JPY pair ka 147.43 par hona ahmiyat rakhta hai. Is pair ne lagataar lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain, jo bearish trend ka classic indicator hai. 50-day aur 200-day moving averages bhi neeche ki taraf trend kar rahe hain, jo market mein overall bearish sentiment ko mazid barhata hai. Jab tak market conditions mein koi notable shift nahi hota, yeh prevailing downtrend jari rehne ki ummeed hai.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi ek ahem indicator hai. Filhal, RSI 30 ke level ke aas paas hai, jo darshata hai ke market oversold territory ke kareeb hai. Halankeh yeh rebound ki potential ka darshan kar sakta hai, lekin overall downward momentum, jo Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator ke zariye darshaya gaya hai, yeh darshata hai ke bearish pressure ab bhi mazid hai.

Key support levels jin par nazar rakhni chahiye wo hain 147.00 aur 146.50. Agar yeh levels tod diye jate hain to yeh US dollar ke liye yen ke muqablay mein mazeed nuqsan ka sabab ban sakta hai. Upar ki taraf, immediate resistance levels 148.00 aur 148.50 ke aas paas hain. Agar pair in resistance levels ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh potential reversal ya at least bearish trend mein temporary halt ka signal de sakta hai.

### **Factors Influencing Future Movements**

Kayi factors hain jo aane wale dino mein USD/JPY pair mein significant movements ko asar daal sakte hain:

1. **Economic Data Releases**: Aane wale economic data jo United States aur Japan se hain, USD/JPY pair ke liye agla move tay karne mein crucial honge. Japan se agar stronger-than-expected economic data aata hai to yeh yen ke liye mazeed support faraham karega, jo USD/JPY pair ko neeche le ja sakta hai. Halankeh agar US economic data ka result behtar aata hai, to yeh dollar ko support de sakta hai aur current trend ka reversal kar sakta hai.

2. **Central Bank Policies**: Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policies USD/JPY pair ke agle direction mein ahmiyat rakhti hain. Agar Federal Reserve apni cautious approach ko jaari rakhta hai jabke BoJ apne accommodative stance ko barqarar rakhta hai, to US dollar ko mazeed pressure ka samna karna par sakta hai. Lekin agar Fed ki taraf se inflation ke liye zyada aggressive stance ka koi ishara milta hai, to yeh dollar ko yen ke muqablay mein support de sakta hai.

3. **Global Economic Conditions**: Global economic conditions bhi USD/JPY pair ko asar daalengi. Agar kisi economic slowdown ya geopolitical tensions ka signal milta hai to yeh yen jaise safe-haven assets ki demand ko barhata hai, jo US dollar ko mazeed pressure mein daal sakta hai. Iske baraks, agar global economic conditions sudharte hain, to yeh dollar ko support de sakta hai aur USD/JPY pair mein recovery ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

4. **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment currency movements ka ek crucial driver hai. Agar investors ko US economic outlook kamzor nazar aata hai, to wo dollar ki holdings ko mazeed kam kar sakte hain, jo USD/JPY pair par continued downward pressure ka sabab ban sakta hai. Lekin, agar sentiment mein koi shift hota hai jo behtar-than-expected economic data ya central bank policy change ki wajah se ho, to yeh pair mein significant upward movement ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

USDJPY currency pair mein ek aham tabdeeli hui hai, jahan sellers ne dobara se control hasil kar liya hai aur price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh downward movement bears ke liye ek aham recovery hai, jinhon ne apne peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain aur market par apna dabao barhaya hai. Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide kar sakte hain

USD/JPY pair filhaal ek descending channel mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke downward trend ko indicate karta hai. Yeh pair EMA 50 se bounce kar chuka hai aur ab 145.35 par critical support level ko target kar raha hai. Is level ko pehle hi test kiya gaya hai, jo ke aur zyada girawat ki taraf ishaara kar raha hai, jahan targets 143.99 aur 142.14 hain. Recommendation yeh hai ke pair ko bechne par focus rakha jaye, aur stop-loss ko 146.59 ke resistance ke upar set kiya jaye. USD/JPY ne kal ke lows ko reach karne ke baad correction phase mein enter kiya hai. Market ab Fed se significant news ka intezar kar rahi hai, khaaskar minutes aur labor market data ke revision ka. Agar data significantly revise hota hai to isse 50-point Fed rate cut ke speculation ka potential ho sakta hai, jo ke dollar ko kamzor kar sakta hai.
Downward momentum kuch had tak kamzor ho chuka hai, jo ke trend ko resume karne ko mushkil bana sakta hai. Filhaal ke sideways movement ko dekhte hue, yeh zyada probable lagta hai ke growth ki taraf move ho. Recent news yeh indicate karti hai ke growth abhi bhi priority hai aur 147.75 ki taraf barh rahi hai.

USD/JPY pair ko higher climb ka ek mauka mil sakta hai. Mera initial aim yeh hai ke 146.33 mark ko breach karte hue dekha jaye, jo ke ek significant move ki raah khol sakta hai. Lekin, patience rakhna aur pullback ka intezar karna behtar hoga, phir 145.70 level ke aas-paas pair ko purchase karne ki sochna chahiye. Jab price is point tak pahunchti hai, upward momentum ko maintain karna mushkil ho sakta hai aur pair ko brief upswing ke baad decline ka samna karna pad sakta hai

USD/JPY Outlook: 1-3 Weeks View

USD/JPY currency pair ki current outlook recent analysis ke sath consistent hai, jismein sustained USD weakness ko highlight kiya gaya hai. August 1st ki latest update mein, spot price 149.90 par, key takeaway yeh hai ki USD/JPY pair mein bearish trend intact hai. Agla critical level 148.20 hai, jo significant support level hai jo further declines ka signal de sakta hai agar breached ho.

Key Technical Insights

1. Sustained USD Weakness: USD ki ongoing weakness JPY ke against dominant theme hai past few weeks se. Yeh trend softer U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy mein potential shifts, aur broader risk-off sentiment ke karan underpinned hai. Jab tak USD under pressure rahega, USD/JPY pair apni downward trajectory continue karega.

2. Important Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate focus 148.20 level par hai, jo crucial support hai. Is level ka breach further declines ka door khole sakta hai, potentially 147.00 ya 146.50 levels ko targeting. Upside par, 152.00 mark key resistance hai. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ki yeh strong resistance level previously 152.80 par set kiya gaya tha, lekin recent price action ne is threshold ko slightly lower adjust kiya hai. Jab tak USD/JPY pair 152.00 se below rahega, bearish outlook valid rahega.

Market Dynamics

1. U.S. Economic Indicators: USD ki weakness mixed economic data se driven hai, jo U.S. recovery ki strength aur Federal Reserve ki future rate hike trajectory par doubts cast karte hain. Agar upcoming data continue to disappoint, toh yeh additional downward pressure USD par exert karega, bearish trend ko reinforce karta hai.

2. Japan’s Economic Context: Japan yen safe-haven status se benefit uthaya hai global uncertainties mein. Although Japan ki economy challenges se free nahi hai, yen ki relative strength weakening USD ke against current trend mein contribute kar rahi hai.

3. Risk Sentiment: Broader risk sentiment global markets mein bhi role play kar raha hai. Global growth, inflation, aur geopolitical tensions ke concerns ke karan, investors safe-haven assets jaise yen ki taraf drawn ho rahe hain. Yeh dynamic ongoing USD/JPY weakness ko support karta hai.

Conclusion

Summary mein, USD/JPY ki outlook next 1-3 weeks ke liye bearish hai, jismein key level 148.20 hai. Jab tak pair 152.00 resistance se below rahega, downward trend persist karega. Traders ko technical levels aur economic data releases ki vigilance rakhni chahiye jo pair ki trajectory ko influence kar sakte hain coming weeks mein

sab invest social members. Umeed hai ke aap sab theek hain aur is site ka lutf utha rahe hain. USDJPY currency pair mein ek aham tabdeeli hui hai, jahan sellers ne dobara se control hasil kar liya hai aur price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh downward movement bears ke liye ek aham recovery hai, jinhon ne apne peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain aur market par apna dabao barhaya hai. Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide kar sakte hain

USDJPY currency pair mein ek aham tabdeeli hui hai, jahan sellers ne dobara se control hasil kar liya hai aur price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh downward movement bears ke liye ek aham recovery hai, jinhon ne apne peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain aur market par apna dabao barhaya hai. Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziada raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai.
Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide kar sakte hain

Japanese Yen (JPY) ki taqat barh rahi hai kyunki BoJ ke zyada rate hike ke chances badh gaye hain. Lekin, political uncertainty ki wajah se Yen ko challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai; Prime Minister Fumio Kishida September mein dobara election ke liye nahi chaleinge, jo unki prime ministership ko effectively khatam kar dega.

US Dollar (USD) ko pressure ka saamna karna pad raha hai, jiska sabab US Treasury yields ka girna aur Fed rate cut ke badhte hue bets hain. Japanese Yen (JPY) ne Friday ko US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein rebound kiya, jo shayad Japan ke second-quarter GDP ke recent growth ki wajah se hua, jo BoJ ke near-term interest rate hike ke possibility ko support karta hai.

Lekin, JPY ko Japan mein political uncertainty ke wajah se challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai, kyunki reports ke mutabiq Prime Minister Fumio Kishida September mein party leader ke liye dobara election nahi karenge, jo unki prime ministership ka term khatam kar dega.

USD/JPY pair ne niche move kiya hai kyunki US Dollar ne lower Treasury yields ke beech apni ground kho di hai. Iske ilawa, traders CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq September ke liye 25 basis point rate reduction ko fully price in kar rahe hain.

Phir bhi, Greenback ko recent better-than-expected US economic data se support mila hai, jo US mein recession ke concerns ko kam karta hai. Iske alawa, preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August aur Building Permits for July ko North American session ke doran dekha jayega. USD/JPY ne trend ko reverse kiya hai aur ab short-term mein upar ki taraf move kar raha hai. Halankeh isne abc correction complete kiya, lekin iske baad decline nahi hui, balki higher break kiya.

USD/JPY ne shayad apne short-term downtrend ko reverse kar diya hai aur ab higher highs aur higher lows ka naya sequence establish kar raha hai. "Trend is your friend" ke mutabiq, yeh suggest karta hai ke short-term mein bullish bias maujood hai. Trend ka change tab hua jab pair ne abc correction ke complete hone ke bawajood rise karna jaari rakha, jo normally pullback ke end aur dominant downtrend ke resume hone ka signal hota hai. Lekin, USD/JPY ke case mein, pair decline karne mein fail hua aur sideways trade kiya, phir August 15 ko decisive higher break kiya. Friday ko USD/JPY 148.80 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart analysis ke mutabiq, pair nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar hai, jo short-term bullish trend ko signal karta hai. Phir bhi, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke neeche hai, aur ek additional rise bullish momentum ko confirm karega.

Support levels ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ko immediate support nine-day EMA par mil sakta hai, jo lagbhag 148.09 ke aas-paas hai. Agar pair is level se niche girta hai, to bearish outlook ko majbooti mil sakti hai aur pair ko seven-month low 141.69 ke taraf le ja sakta hai jo 5 August ko record hua tha. Agar decline continue hoti hai, to pair next support level 140.25 ke kareeb aa sakti hai.

Upside ke liye, USD/JPY pair 50-day EMA ko 153.08 par target kar sakta hai, aur resistance level 154.50 ko test karne ki possibility hai, jo pehle throwback support se current pullback resistance mein transition ho gaya hai.

Wave c ke top ke upar break karne se indicate hota hai ke short-term trend shayad bullish hai aur isliye rise continue hone ke zyada chances hain. 100-period Simple Moving Average (blue) abhi gains ko cap kar raha hai lekin iske upar close karne se probably continuation higher ko confirm kiya jayega target 150.90 (August 1 swing high), uske baad 151.94 (July 25 swing low) aur phir shayad 155.22 (July 30 swing high

USD/JPY pair ne haal hi mein 146.17 level par kuch interesting price action dikhaya, jahan pe kuch tests huay jo MACD indicator mein significant movements ke saath align karte hain. Yahan pe analysis ke key points aur trading tips ka breakdown hai:
Pehla test us waqt hua jab MACD ne zero line se significant upward movement kiya tha. Yeh bullish potential ko limited indicate kar raha tha, aur pair ne baad mein lagbhag 30 pips ka fall kiya. Dusra test bhi isi price level par hua jab MACD overbought zone mein tha, jo bearish outlook ko confirm kar raha tha aur downward move ka potential barh raha tha.

US session ke dauran, ek aur test 146.17 par hua, lekin is dafa MACD zero line se upward move kar raha tha. Yeh ek solid buy signal diya, jisse market mein 30-pip ka gain mila.

Japan ke inflation data ke unchanged rehne par 2.8% aur Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ke speech ne yen ko support diya, jisne market dynamics mein asar dala. Aane wale movements ka zyada asar Federal Reserve Chair ke statements par hoga, khaaskar interest rate policies ke hawale se.

**Buy Signals**

1. USD/JPY ko 145.91 ke aas-paas buy karne ka socho, aur 146.65 tak rise ka target rakho. 146.65 par long positions close karo aur short positions open karne ka socho, 30-35 pips ka retracement expect karo. Buy order execute karne se pehle ensure karo ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur rise karna shuru ho.

2. USD/JPY ko buy karne ka socho agar 145.45 ka do baar test ho aur MACD oversold area mein ho. 145.91 tak move aur shayad 146.65 tak bhi dekho. Oversold condition downside ko limit karegi, jisse reversal ka chance milega.

**Sell Signals**

1. USD/JPY ko 145.45 level ke test ke baad sell karo, aur 144.79 tak decline ka target rakho. 144.79 par short positions close karo aur long positions mein switch karne ka socho, 20-25 pip ka upward movement expect karo. Sell karne se pehle ensure karo ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur decline karna shuru ho.

2. USD/JPY ko sell karne ka socho agar 145.91 ka do baar test ho aur MACD overbought area mein ho. 145.45 tak decline aur shayad 144.79 tak bhi dekho. Overbought condition upside ko limit karegi, jisse reversal ka chance milega.

Trade enter karne se pehle MACD indicator ki position ko zero line ke relative dhekho. Yeh momentum aur market ke potential direction ko confirm karne mein madad karega. Federal Reserve Chair ke statements ko monitor karo, kyun ke yeh USD/JPY movements par significant asar daal sakte hain. Proper stop-loss levels ko ensure karo taake risk manage kiya ja sake, khaaskar central bank policies aur market reactions ke wajah se potential volatility ke liye.

Jummah ko, USD/JPY 145.60 par trade kar raha tha. Pair ne downtrend line ke upar position li hui hai, jo negative bias mein kami ki nishani hai, yeh daily chart ke analysis ke mutabiq hai. Halanki yeh ab bhi 30 ke thoda upar hai, lekin 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) yeh suggest karta hai ke negative trend ab bhi active ho sakta hai. Japan mein inflation barh raha hai, aur core CPI—jo gasoline ko shamil karta hai lekin fresh food ko exclude karta hai—pichlay do mahino se barh raha hai. July mein yeh index phir se barhne ki umeed hai, 2.6% se 2.7% tak. Agar inflation barh kar is trajectory par raha, toh yeh Bank of Japan ko apni September 20 ki meeting mein rate hike karne ke haq mein ho sakta hai.

Aaj, US dollar ne yen ke mukable apni tezi se girawat se recover kiya hai. North American session mein USD/JPY 146.45 par hai, aur din ke liye 0.83% up hai. Friday se yen mein 2.7% ka izafa dekhne ko mila hai. USD/JPY pair 145.50 level par downtrend line ko support level ke tor par challenge kar raha hai. Agar yeh barrier breach ho gaya, toh negative sentiment barh sakta hai, aur pair August 5 ko seven-month low of 141.69 ke aas-paas move kar sakta hai. Agar yeh decline continue hota hai, toh pair 140.25 throwback support level ke kareeb move kar sakta hai.

Upside par, USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance 146.46 level par face karna par sakta hai, jo nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hai. Agar nine-day moving average ke upar breach hota hai, toh pair 154.50 resistance level tak test kar sakta hai, jo pehle support tha lekin ab resistance ban gaya hai. USD/JPY 146.63 resistance par press kar raha hai, 145.55 barrier ke upar push karne ke baad. 143.11 aur 144.19 assistance provide kar rahe hain, aur 147.00 ki taraf strong possibility ke saath upward movement continue karega.

Main pehle step mein 146.33 ke upar move ka target karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo ke ek critical level ki taraf le jaega. Iske ilawa, yeh behtar hai ke ek correction ka intezar karo aur USD/JPY ko 145.70 par buy karo. Jab yeh price level pohoch jaaye, toh upward momentum sustain rehne ke chances kam hain. Iske bajaye, USD/JPY mein ek brief rally ho sakti hai jisme phir se downward reversal dekhnay ko milega. Trading week mein waqt ab bhi baqi hai, is liye yeh scenario ab bhi viable hai.

USD/JPY ke liye outlook
Kal, dollar/yen ki jodi niche jane me nakam rahi aur pichle din ki nichli satah ko update nahin kiya. Mujhe 147.30 ki muzahmati satah ki taraf ek ooper ki sycle ki ummid thi. Iske outbreak ki surat me, yah joda 148.60 ki taraf ucchal sakti thi. Is jodi ne taqriban pure din badhne ki koshish ki, lekin 147.30 tak pahunchne me nakam rahi, fir palat gayi aur 145.20 ki support satah oar gir gayi.



Aaj, suratehal taqriban waisi hi hai. Agar yah jodi 145.20 se niche toot jati hai aur wahan settle ho jati hai to, pichle din ki nichli satah ke update hone ka imkan hai. Is surat me, din aur hafte ke ikhtetam tak, yah joda 142.80 tak gir sakta hai. Mujhe lagta hai keh is bat ka imkan hai keh yah is satah tak pahunch jaye, jiske bad agle hafte ki shuruaat me yah 145.20 tak gir sakta hai, aur mumken taur par 140.00 tak niche ja sakta hai.
Agar joda dobara 145.20 ki support satah se niche nahin rahti hai to, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh 147.30 tak izafa hoga. Agar yah satah toot gayi hai to, jodi 148.60 par ja sakti hai. Yah joda Peer tak 146.30 ke qarib ek flat rujhan me dakhil ho sakta hai.