USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, US dollar/Japanese yen ki jodi ne 152.70 ki muzahmati satah par wapas aane ki koshish ki, lekin iski 151.40 ke nishan tak mahdud rahi. Qimat is se ooper nahin ja saki. Natije ke taur par, dollar/yen ka joda 148.60 ki support satah par wapas aa gaya, jo ek hafte ki kam tarin satah hai, lekin ise paar nahin kar saki.



Aaj, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh yah jodi 151.40 se ooper toot kar 152.70 ki satah tak pahunchte hue ek tezi se islah me dakhil hogi. Yah scenario kafi mumkena hai kiyunkeh market me utar-chadhaw hal me kafi zyada raha hai. Agar qimat 148.60 ki support satah se niche toot jati hai to, dollar/yen ka joda 152.70 ke nishan tak faide ko dobara se shuru karne se pahle 147.30 ki kaledi hadaf ki satah tak nuqsanat ko badhane me kamyab hogi. Agar qimat is satah ko paar kar jati hai to, dollar/yen ki jodi 154.05 ki agli muzahmati satah ki taraf badhte hue ooper ki taraf badhegi.

Ek kamzor ISM manufacturing report aur khaaskar ek bahut kamzor employment component (jo 49.3 se gir kar 43.4 par aaya) ne dollar ko briefly kamzor kar diya, ek aise din par jab greenback ke liye demand thi. Lekin, traders ne jaldi se yaad kiya ke US mein manufacturing mein sirf 8.2% log kaam karte hain aur labor market service sector se dominated hai.

Is mahine market report ke sabhi components par zyada dhyan dega. Khaaskar, wage growth aur unemployment rate par nazar rakhi jayegi, taake dekha ja sake ke so-called Sahm rule trigger hota hai ya nahi. Yeh rule kehta hai ke recession tab hota hai jab unemployment rate ke three-month moving average 12-month low se 0.5 percentage points se zyada niche ho. June mein yeh 0.43 tha. Mujhe lagta hai ke aaj yeh trigger hone ki sambhavana kam hai, lekin market nazar rakhegi. Outlook mixed hai; US Dollar (USD) 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech choppy trade kar sakta hai, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann ka kehna hai.

Agla support 148.20 par hai.
24-HOUR VIEW: "Kal ke update ke excerpts yeh hain: 'Aaj further USD weakness ko rule nahi kiya ja sakta. Lekin, severely oversold conditions suggest karti hain ke significant support level 148.20 tak pahunchnay ki sambhavana kam hai. Ek aur support level 149.00 par hai. Momentum ko maintain karne ke liye, USD ko 151.30 ke neeche rehna hoga, aur minor resistance 150.50 par hai.' USD phir se wild fluctuations dikhaya, jahan yeh 148.48 tak gira, strong bounce karke 150.89 tak gaya, aur phir wapas gir kar 149.36 par close hua (-0.41%). Choppy price action ke wajah se outlook mixed hai. Aaj, USD choppy manner mein trade kar sakta hai, shayad 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Hamare update (01 Aug, spot at 149.90) se ab tak valid hai. Jaise ke highlighted kiya gaya, recent USD weakness abhi bhi barkarar hai, aur agla level dekhne layak hai 148.20. USD weakness tab tak barkarar hai jab tak 152.00 (strong resistance level kal 152.80 par tha) breach nahi hota."

**News for Trading**

Aaj humare paas high-impact news hai jo mukhtalif currencies se related hai. Iske sath kuch low aur medium-impact news bhi hai. Is area mein bohot zyada volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai, aur jo bhi pair in currencies se related hai unmein bhi volatility hogi. Traders ko is baat ka dhyan rakhna chahiye aur aaj trading ke doran achi money management skills ka istemal karna chahiye. Caution ke sath trade karna seekhein. Yeh forex market mein trading ke liye bohot zaroori hai. Aaj ki available news ke baare mein zyada information ke liye niche di gayi picture dekhein.

**USDJPY Analysis**

Kal, USDJPY pair ne downward areas mein trade kiya aur din ka close 149.75 ke aas paas hua. Aaj, yeh downward direction mein move kar raha hai aur 148.90 ke price level tak pohanch gaya hai. Niche diye gaye hourly chart ko dekhte hue, yeh notice hota hai ke USDJPY moving average line MA (200) H1 ke neeche trade kar raha hai jo 153.20 par hai. Chaar ghante ke chart par bhi similar situation hai kyunki USDJPY is waqt moving average line MA (200) H4 ke upar trade kar raha hai.

In facts ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, traders ko correction ke baad ek achha sell entry point dhoondhne ki salah di jati hai. Is analysis ke baare mein behtar information ke liye niche di gayi picture aur chart dekhein. Kindly is par nazar daalein.

**Resistance Levels:** 150.90, 151.25, aur 153.15.

**Support Levels:** 148.50, 148.00, aur 147.40.

**What to Expect:** Hum USDJPY ki price mein lagatar girawat dekh sakte hain jo agle support level 148.50 tak ja sakti hai.

Dusri taraf, hum moving average line MA (200) H4 ke upar rise dekh sakte hain jo 155.95 tak pohnch sakti hai.

Ab ke liye itna hi. Aap is analysis ke baare mein kya sochte hain? Kindly apne thoughts aur contributions comments section mein chhod dein. Aapka din shandar ho.

USD/JPY pair upar ki taraf move kar raha hai, magar filhal yeh kaafi patla hai. 151.90 par support ek aham zone hai jo potential girawat ke liye lower boundary ka kaam karta hai, kyunki is area mein rejection dekha gaya hai jo price ko ab tak upar le ja raha hai. Yeh bahut mumkin hai ke price phir se MA 100 level ko test kare, jo ke 157.19 par hai. Dusri taraf, ek lamba target 160.24 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo ke fresh supply area mein hai. Filhal candlestick ki position Simple Moving Average indicator line ke neeche hai jo 200 period ke liye hai, jo USD/JPY pair mein sellers ki strong influence ko darshata hai, jo price ko lagatar neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur bearish trend ko barqarar rakh rahe hain jo kuch hafton se chal raha hai.

Dusri taraf, Relative Strength Index indicator ki 5-period ki conditions ko dekhte hue, jo abhi bhi level 70 se thoda neeche hai, yeh bhi ek strong signal hai ke price abhi bhi neeche move kar rahi hai. Market mein high volatility dekhi ja rahi hai, jo kuch dino se observe ki gayi hai kyunki USD/JPY market mein sellers ke zyada sales transactions hain. Yeh khas taur par pichle Wednesday ko zahir hua, jab price ne us trading session ke doran significant downward movement dekhi.

Chhote timeframe mein, price position ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur yeh filhal Simple Moving Average line for 50 period ke upar hai aur thoda upar correction kiya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ki price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke aas-paas consolidate kare, kyunki aise conditions aksar Tuesdays ko dekhi jaati hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko dekhte hue, yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi bhi downward phase mein hai, halankeh range itni wide nahi hai. Is hafte ka trend kuch bearish hai, jabke USD/JPY pair ka trend July 2024 ke shuruati trading session ke baad upar gaya. Iska matlab hai ke is hafte ki market conditions abhi bhi monthly trend ke sath consistent hain.

Weak ISM Manufacturing Report and Dollar Impact

Ek kamzor ISM manufacturing report aur khaaskar ek bohot kamzor employment component (jo 49.3 se gir kar 43.4 par aa gaya) ne dollar ko briefly weak kar diya ek aise din jab greenback ki demand thi. Magar, traders ko jaldi yaad aa gaya ke US mein manufacturing mein kaam karne walon ka hisa sirf 8.2% hai aur labor market ko service sector dominate karta hai.
Is mahine market report ke sab components par zyada tawajju dega. Khaaskar, wage growth aur unemployment rate par focus hoga, yeh dekhne ke liye ke kya so-called Sahm rule trigger hota hai ya nahi. Yeh rule yeh kehta hai ke jab unemployment rate ka three-month moving average, 12-month low se 0.5 percentage points se zyada neeche hota hai, to recession historically follow karta hai. June mein yeh 0.43 tha. Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh aaj trigger nahi hoga, lekin market closely watch karega.

Market Outlook
Outlook mixed hai; US Dollar (USD) choppy trade kar sakta hai 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann note karte hain. Next support 148.20 par hai.

24-Hour View
Humare kal ke update ke excerpts yeh hain: “Further USD weakness aaj rule out nahi kiya ja sakta. Magar, severely oversold conditions suggest karte hain ke significant support level 148.20 out of reach hai. Aur ek support level 149.00 par hai. Momentum maintain karne ke liye, USD ko 151.30 ke neeche rehna chahiye with minor resistance at 150.50.” USD phir wildly fluctuate hua, 148.48 tak gira, strongly bounce karke 150.89 tak gaya, aur phir wapas gir kar 149.36 par close hua (-0.41%). Choppy price action ne mixed outlook diya hai. Aaj, USD choppy manner mein trade kar sakta hai, likely 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech.

1-3 Weeks View
Humara kal ka update (01 Aug, spot at 149.90) ab bhi valid hai. Jaise highlight kiya tha, recent USD weakness ab bhi intact hai, aur next level jo watch karna hai woh 148.20 hai. USD weakness intact hai jab tak 152.00 ('strong resistance level kal 152.80 tha) breach nahi hota.

US Dollars aur Yen: Market Analysis
US dollar trading session ke doran thoda sa gir gaya, jab ke yen ke khilaf recovery karne mein initially struggle kar raha tha. Yeh tab hua jab Bank of Japan ne interest rates ko takreeban 15 basis points se barha diya. Jabke yen samajh mein aane wali baat hai ke higher interest rates ke response mein appreciate hota hai, interest rate differential abhi bhi US dollar ko support karta hai.

Is scenario ko dekhte hue, market eventually dollar ke khilaf swing kar sakti hai. Lekin Federal Reserve ke announcement jo din ke baad aane wala hai, kuch uncertainty ko lekar aati hai. Fed ke position ke hisaab se market conditions tezi se change ho sakti hain, isliye caution zaroori hai.

Market Sentiment aur Interest Rates

Agar market apne current levels se sharply pull back karti hai, to yeh indicate karega ke recent sell-off temporary hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke traders US aur Japan ke beech favorable interest rate differential ka faida uthane ke liye tayyar hain. Lekin Federal Reserve se dovish tone is dynamic ko dramatic tareeke se change kar sakti hai. Isliye din ki closing market ke approach ke liye crucial hogi.

Cautiously Optimistic

Filhaal, US ke dollar interest rates ke advantage ke sath, bias buying opportunities ki taraf shift ho raha hai. Lekin wise hai ke cautious raha jaye aur Federal Reserve ke announcements ke response ko dekha jaye. Agar closing 152 yen ke qareeb hoti hai to yeh ek strong positive sign hoga, jo resilience aur dollar terms mein further gains ki possibility ko indicate karega.

Conclusion

In conclusion, halanke yen thoda sa appreciate hua hai Bank of Japan ke interest rate increase ke wajah se, interest rate differentials abhi bhi US dollar ke liye favorable hain. Aane wala Federal Reserve ka announcement kuch uncertainty laata hai, isliye cautious rehna prudent hai. Aik strong market rally commodities ka end aur favorable dollar conditions ki taraf wapas jane ka signal ho sakta hai. Filhaal, watchful mind aur buying opportunities ki talash sabse acha approach lagti hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ki price movements aur uske analysis par baat kareinge. USD/JPY pair abhi 153.97 level se upar hai, jo ke mazid upward trend aur future growth ka ishara hai. Yeh position 153.97 ke upar mazid upar jane ka potential dikhati hai. Is week ke liye USD/JPY ka probable direction dekhte hue, 157.51 level ek viable target hai jo agle kuch dinon mein hasil ho sakta hai. Paichlay paanch dinon se pair sideways movement experience kar raha hai, support zone aur 153.02 ke psychological level se bounce ho raha hai, jo ke aik strong foundation ka kaam karta hai. Psychological levels aksar trading ko impact karte hain kyunke yeh significant trading volume accumulations hoti hain, jo volatility ko slow down karte hain, jaise ke chart mein dikhai deta hai. Yeh instrument ascending bullish channel ke lower boundary se bahar nikal chuka hai aur ab descending bearish trend ke continuation ka stage set kar raha hai

Bhale hi uncertain ho, mujhe bullish side ki correction ki umeed hai, jo resistance zone 157.27 tak pohanch sakti hai, jo Bollinger indicator ki moving average line se define hoti hai. Yeh area descending bearish channel ki upper boundary bhi represent karta hai agar trend reversal hota hai. Market price trading instrument ka 154.11 par hai. Aaj subah ki trading ke doran, instrument ko 153.63 par support mili aur yeh level se upar jana shuru hua. Jaise hi yeh upar gaya, price 154.25 tak chali gayi. Envelope ka technical indicator price increase suggest karta hai. MACD indicator positive hai aur Stochastic indicator buyer activity dikhata hai. Cost 157.01 level ki taraf barhni continue karegi. Yeh analysis key levels aur technical indicators ko highlight karta hai, upward aur downward movements anticipate karta hai. Strategic planning maintain karna aur market developments se updated rehna in dynamics ko effectively navigate karne ke liye zaroori hai

USD/JPY: Price Action

Chalo USD/JPY currency pair ki price activity ka analysis karte hain aur dekhtay hain ke humein kya insights mil sakti hain. Maine USD/JPY pair ko four-hour chart par analyze kiya aur ek three-wave pattern identify kiya jo support level 151.94 se start hota hai. Main expect karta hoon ke yeh bullish scenario mein play out hoga, aur price increase hote hue 157.89 level ko test karega. Jab long position profitable ho jaye aur price required distance ka aadha cover kar le, to stop loss ko breakeven par le ana samajhdari hogi. Yeh approach pehle thoda mushkil lag sakta hai lekin agar trend pakar lo to rewarding hota hai. Abhi main sidelines par hoon, USD/JPY ko observe kar raha hoon. Yeh dekhna interesting hoga ke yeh growth wave 155.09 ko surpass karti hai ya selling volume ki wajah se decline hota hai. Is waqt main pair ke liye clear, long-term direction dhoond raha hoon kyunki pichle hafte ne sab kuch disrupt kar diya tha. Main short periods par focus kar raha hoon jahan upward trend intact hai.


USD/JPY pair moving average (MA) ke kareeb aa rahi hai rapid bullish growth ki wajah se. Lekin AI analysis indicate karta hai ke ek significant shift dono directions mein ho sakta hai. Dollar ke strength gain karne se, USD/JPY apni ascent continue kar sakta hai. Yeh potential pehle priority nahi thi, lekin ab yeh central focus hai. Aaj, JOLTS report labor market par kuch clarification provide kar sakti hai upcoming non-farm payroll data ke liye. Humne yeh situation multiple times encounter ki hai. Kal, ADP report bhi role play karegi, jo aksar Friday ko milne wale data se contradict karti hai. Apko likely conflicting statistics milengi ek hi topic par. Friday ko, USD/JPY ke growth ke baad hum bearish side par reversal dekh sakte hain.

Ek kamzor ISM manufacturing report aur khaaskar ek bohot hi kamzor employment component (jo 49.3 se gir ke 43.4 tak aa gaya) ne dollar ko thodi der ke liye kamzor kar diya jabke greenback otherwise demand mein tha. Lekin, traders ne jaldi hi yaad kar liya ke US mein manufacturing mein sirf 8.2% log kaam karte hain aur labor market service sector se dominate hota hai Is mahine market report ke tamam components pe zyada tawajjo dega. Khaaskar, wage growth aur unemployment rate pe log zyada dehan denge, taake dekha ja sake ke kya so-called Sahm rule trigger hota hai. Yeh rule kehta hai ke jab unemployment rate ka three-month moving average 12-month low se 0.5 percentage points zyada hota hai, to historical tor pe recession aata hai. June mein yeh 0.43 tha. Mujhe lagta hai ke aaj yeh rule trigger nahi hoga, lekin market closely dekh rahi hogi. Outlook mixed hai; US Dollar (USD) choppy trade kar sakta hai 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech mein, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang aur Lee Sue Ann ne note kiya
Next support 148.20 pe hai
24-HOUR VIEW: "Yeh hain hamare kal ke update ke excerpts: 'Aaj USD weakness rule out nahi kiya ja sakta. Lekin, severely oversold conditions suggest karte hain ke significant support level 148.20 out of reach hai. Ek aur support level 149.00 pe hai. Momentum ko maintain karne ke liye, USD ko 151.30 se neeche rehna hoga, minor resistance 150.50 pe hai.' USD phir wildly fluctuate karta raha, jaise hi yeh 148.48 tak gira, strongly bounce hua 150.89 tak, aur phir wapas gir ke 149.36 pe close hua (-0.41%). Choppy price action ke wajah se mixed outlook nikal ke aayi. Aaj, USD phir choppy manner mein trade kar sakta hai, likely 148.20 aur 150.50 ke beech mein.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Hamari kal ki update (01 Aug, spot at 149.90) ab bhi valid hai. Jaise highlight kiya gaya tha, recent USD weakness ab bhi intact hai, aur next level dekhne layak 148.20 hai. USD weakness intact hai jab tak 152.00 (strong resistance level kal 152.80 tha) breach nahi

USD/JPY ke exchange rate ne guzishta chand hafton mein aik aham tabadli ka samna kiya hai kyunki US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan ikhtilaf barqarar hai. Yeh lagataar chaar hafton se girta chala aa raha hai aur 148.54 ki paasti ko chhune ke baad, jo ke is saal ke aghaz se 161.76 ki bulandi se neeche aa gaya hai. Kul mila kar, USD/JPY ke izafa ne hedge funds aur doosre spekuleetars ko nuqsaan pohunchaya hai jo ab bhi Japanese yen ko bech rahe hain. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ke data se pata chalta hai ke spekuleetars ne March 2021 se yen par net short position rakha hua hai. Beshak, in investors ne khoob paisa banaya hai jab ke Japanese yen apni 2020 ki bulandi se zyada 47% gir chuka hai. Ab kuch investors apni positions band kar rahe hain jab ke currency recover kar rahi hai. Net short positions June mein -184,000 se kam hokar pichle hafte 107,000 par aa gayi hain Dovish US Federal Reserve
USD/JPY ki qeemat ka girna ziada tar Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan ikhtilaf ke sabab se tha. Budh ko apni interest rate ke faislay mein, bank ne US ke interest rate ko 5.25% aur 5.50% ke darmiyan barqarar rakha. Yeh faisla investors ke liye hairan kun nahi tha kyun ke yeh wahi tha jo analysts ne expect kiya tha. Apne statement mein, bank ne yeh zahir kiya ke ab woh dual mandate ke do pehluon par tawajju de raha hai: labor market aur inflation
Taza maali data se zahir hota hai ke yeh numbers mukhtalif simton mein ja rahe hain. Inflation Fed ke 2.0% ke target ki taraf ja raha hai kyun ke yeh lagataar teen maheenon se gir raha hai. Dosri taraf, berozgari ki shirah guzishta chand maheenon mein kam hota ja raha hai. Budh ko ADP ke zariye jari shuda data se zahir hota hai ke US private sector ne sirf 122,000 jobs July mein izafa kiya, jo ke aik saal se zyada ka sab se chhota izafa hai
Bank of Japan ka rate hike
Yani, Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan mukhtalif simton mein ja rahe hain. Budh ko apni interest rate ke faislay mein, bank ne 17 saalon mein doosri dafa izafa kiya. Bank ne interest rate ko 0.25% se barhaya, chand maheenon baad jab ke pehle 0.10% ka izafa kiya tha. Sab se aham baat yeh hai ke bank ne yeh bhi zahir kiya ke woh aney walay maheenon mein rates ko mazeed barha sakta hai agar inflation barqarar raha. Bank of Japan ke taraf se interest rate hikes ke baad central bank ne zyada se zyada $22 billion ke foreign exchange interventions kiye jab yen gir gaya
Magar, BOJ ko ek economy mein mazeed mandi ka khatra hai jo pehle hi mandi ke asar dikhati hai. Bank of Japan ke data se zahir hota hai ke mulk ka manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) July mein 49.1 par gir gaya jo ke June mein 50 tha. Yeh 49.2 ke median estimate se neeche tha. Yeh do din baad aaya jab Japan ne kamzor industrial production data jari kiya

USD/JPY exchange rate ne guzishta kuch hafton main notable reversal face ki hai kyun ke US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan divergence barh gaya hai. Yeh rate chaar consecutive hafton se gir raha hai aur 148.54 ka low touch kiya hai, jo ke saal ke aghaz se 161.76 ke high se neeche hai. Overall, USD/JPY ki rally ne hedge funds aur doosre speculators ko nuksan diya hai jo Japanese yen ko bechna jari rakhe hue hain. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ke data ke mutabiq, speculators ne March 2021 se yen par net short position hold ki hui hai. Yeh investors ek fortune kama chuke hain jab se Japanese yen 2020 ke high se zyada se zyada 47% gir gaya hai. Ab kuch investors apni positions close kar rahe hain jab ke currency recover ho rahi hai. Net short positions June ke -184,000 se gir kar pichle hafte 107,000 ho gayi hain.

### Dovish US Federal Reserve

USD/JPY pair zyada tar is wajah se gir rahi hai ke Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan divergence barh gaya hai. Wednesday ko apne interest rate decision main, bank ne US interest rate ko 5.25% aur 5.50% ke darmiyan barqarar rakha. Yeh decision investors ke liye koi surprise nahi tha kyun ke yeh analysts ki expectations ke mutabiq tha. Apne statement main, bank ne yeh indicate kiya ke ab woh apne dual mandate ke do aspects par focus kar raha hai: labor market aur inflation.

Recent economic data ne yeh show kiya ke yeh numbers mukhtalif directions main move kar rahe hain. Inflation Fed ke 2.0% target ki taraf ja rahi hai kyun ke yeh teen consecutive months se gir rahi hai. Doosri taraf, unemployment rate guzishta kuch mahino main decline ho rahi hai. Wednesday ko ADP dwara release ki gayi data ke mutabiq, US private sector ne sirf 122,000 jobs July main add ki, jo ke ek saal se zyada ka sabse chota increase hue hai.



Thus, Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan opposite directions main move kar rahe hain. Wednesday ko apne interest rate decision main, bank ne 17 saalon main apni doosri increase ki. Usne interest rates 0.25% barhayi, kuch mahino baad 0.10% barhane ke. Zyada important baat yeh hai ke bank ne indicate kiya ke woh agle mahino main rate barhata rahega agar inflation stable rahti hai. Bank of Japan ke interest rate hikes central bank ke major foreign exchange interventions ke baad aayi hain jo ke $22 billion se zyada ki thi jab yen collapse ho gaya tha.

USD/JPY pair ka performance mukhtalif factors se influenced hota hai jaise economic data releases, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment. For instance, US economic indicators jaise employment reports, inflation data, aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions ka asar pair pe padta hai. Isi tarah, Japan ki economic conditions aur policy decisions bhi crucial role play karte hain. Thursday ko, USD/JPY ne record high touch kiya, jo rapid increase ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential opportunity suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Furthermore, moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout bearish pressure ko indicate karta hai.
Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, aur 15-minute chart pe, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price ke upar hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai for USD/JPY pair, potentially higher zone mein move karne ka. Iss week ka trend pattern uptrend aur narrow range ko indicate karta hai. Relatively modest upward rally ke madde nazar, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karenge. Morning candlestick 100-period simple moving average ke upar close hui, jo market trend ke rise ko suggest karti hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone surpass kar sakein...
Is waqt, USD/JPY trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke continue hone ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke movement ke continuation ka potential dega. Pehla target supply zone hoga 160.47 pe, jahan historically sellers ne price down push kiya tha. Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support break karna hoga, jahan se price aksar bounce back hoti hai. Bears ki strength tab confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke neeche consolidate ho jaye, jo price weakness ko indicate karega.
USD/JPY market mein. Yeh khas tor pe pichlay Wednesday ko evident tha, jab price significant downward movement experience hui thi us trading session ke doran.
Chhoti timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai 50 period ke liye aur slight correction upward hui hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke around consolidate kare gi, kyun ke aise conditions aksar Tuesday ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. Market trend conditions H1 timeframe mein dekh kar yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend thoda bearish hai, jab ke USD/JPY pair ka trend upar ki taraf move hua tha July 2024 ke shuruat ke trading session ke baad. Iska matlab yeh hai ke is haftay ke market conditions abhi bhi monthly trend ke sath consistent hain

USD/JPY ke exchange rate ne guzishta chand hafton mein aik aham tabadli ka samna kiya hai kyunki US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan ikhtilaf barqarar hai. Yeh lagataar chaar hafton se girta chala aa raha hai aur 148.54 ki paasti ko chhune ke baad, jo ke is saal ke aghaz se 161.76 ki bulandi se neeche aa gaya hai. Kul mila kar, USD/JPY ke izafa ne hedge funds aur doosre spekuleetars ko nuqsaan pohunchaya hai jo ab bhi Japanese yen ko bech rahe hain. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ke data se pata chalta hai ke spekuleetars ne March 2021 se yen par net short position rakha hua hai. Beshak, in investors ne khoob paisa banaya hai jab ke Japanese yen apni 2020 ki bulandi se zyada 47% gir chuka hai. Ab kuch investors apni positions band kar rahe hain jab ke currency recover kar rahi hai. Net short positions June mein -184,000 se kam hokar pichle hafte 107,000 par aa gayi hain Dovish US Federal Reserve USD/JPY ki qeemat ka girna ziada tar Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke darmiyan ikhtilaf ke sabab se tha. Budh ko apni interest rate ke faislay mein, bank ne US ke interest rate ko 5.25% aur 5.50% ke darmiyan barqarar rakha. Yeh faisla investors ke liye hairan kun nahi tha kyun ke yeh wahi tha jo analysts ne expect kiya tha. Apne statement mein, bank ne yeh zahir kiya ke ab woh dual mandate ke do pehluon par tawajju de raha hai: labor market aur inflation
Taza maali data se zahir hota hai ke yeh numbers mukhtalif simton mein ja rahe hain. Inflation Fed ke 2.0% ke target ki taraf ja raha hai kyun ke yeh lagataar teen maheenon se gir raha hai. Dosri taraf, berozgari ki shirah guzishta chand maheenon mein kam hota ja raha hai. Budh ko ADP ke zariye jari shuda data se zahir hota hai ke US private sector ne sirf 122,000 jobs July mein izafa kiya, jo ke aik saal se zyada ka sab se chhota izafa hai
Bank of Japan ka rate hike
Yani, Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan mukhtalif simton mein ja rahe hain. Budh ko apni interest rate ke faislay mein, bank ne 17 saalon mein doosri dafa izafa kiya. Bank ne interest rate ko 0.25% se barhaya, chand maheenon baad jab ke pehle 0.10% ka izafa kiya tha. Sab se aham baat yeh hai ke bank ne yeh bhi zahir kiya ke woh aney walay maheenon mein rates ko mazeed barha sakta hai agar inflation barqarar raha. Bank of Japan ke taraf se interest rate hikes ke baad central bank ne zyada se zyada $22 billion ke foreign exchange interventions kiye jab yen gir gaya
Magar, BOJ ko ek economy mein mazeed mandi ka khatra hai jo pehle hi mandi ke asar dikhati hai. Bank of Japan ke data se zahir hota hai ke mulk ka manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) July mein 49.1 par gir gaya jo ke June mein 50 tha

tak pahuncha, jo is currency pair ka 1.5 mahine ka sabse neecha darja hai, yeh 38 saal mein Japanese yen ki sabse neeche darja se bechne ki amal ko jari rakhta hai. Hafte ke darmiyan, US dollar ka Japanese yen ke muqablay mein qeemat upar wapas chadi hai jo 157.86 ke resistance level tak pahunch gayi aur is hafte ki shuruaat mein 157.35 ke aas-paas thehra gayi. USD/JPY ki qeemat agle doran central bank ki policies ki mustaqbil aur Japanese intervention ki had tak asar andaz rahegi. US dollar ne pichle Budh ko apna ghatna jari rakha jab Federal Reserve se interest rate cuts ke aamand ki wajah se koi khaas harkat nahi hui. Magar session ke aakhri hisson mein, dollar ne kuch investors ka support hasil kiya jab US industrial production ka data release hua. Is data ne June mein umeed se zyada production ka darja dikhaya, jabke May ke numbers bhi upar revise kiye gaye. Thursday ko, America mein naye berozgaaron ke dawe ki initial unemployment claims ka data release hua. Is data ne naye berozgaar American nagrikon ki umeed se zyada ginti dikhai, jo US labor market mein chali aayi stagnation ka izhar hai. Magar, US dollar ki qeemat ne haftay ke dauran exaggerated selling se ek choti si recovery hasil ki aur nuksan se bach gayi.

/JPY ne record high reach kiya, indicating a rapid increase, jo ke potential opportunity for profit-taking suggest kar sakta hai. Ab bhi chance hai ke decline ho US session ke lead up mein. Furthermore, ek breakout above the moving averages aur bullish channel indicate karte hain bearish pressure in the analysis Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, 15-minute chart par described, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price se above hai, suggesting ke bullish trend for USD/JPY pair continue kar sakta hai, potentially higher zone mein move karte hue. Trend pattern for this week uptrend indicate karta hai narrow range ke saath. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, chance hai ke yeh increase next week tak continue kar sakta hai, aur prices expected hain uptrend maintain karne ke. Morning candlestick closed above the 100-period simple moving average, suggesting ke market trend rise ho sakta hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko surpass kar sakte hain
Currently, USD/JPY trend line ke above trade kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ki strength show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support serve karti hai. Bullish rally continue karne ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko resistance at 162.15 break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke movement ke continuation ka potential allow karega. Pehla target hoga supply zone at 160.47, jahan historically sellers ne price ko push down kiya hai. Ek reverse movement towards the short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle support at 160.24 break karna hoga, jahan price ne aksar bounce back kiya hai. Bears ki strength confirm hogi agar price successfully 160.31 ke broken level ke below consolidate kar sake, indicating price weakness
USD/JPY ka downtrend abhi bhi present hai. Price ne support at 155.48 find kiya, jahan se yeh bounce back hua. Technical analysis dikhati hai ke price four-hour time frame par cloud ke below trade kar raha hai, Kijun-sen aur Tenkan-sen signal lines ke saath below, Chikou span line price chart ke below, aur ek active "dead cross." Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke below hai, aur "trend filter" oscillator red mein, signaling bearish market sentiment. Further declines likely hain. Agar price level 155.48 ke below break aur successfully consolidate karta hai, toh prudent hoga new sales consider karna. Iss scenario mein, next potential target support level hoga 154.70.
Aaj market band hai, price temporarily 153.76 area mein ruk gayi hai. Mera khayal hai ke overall market situation yeh suggest karti hai ke price agle kuch dino ke liye bearish trend ko continue karne ka mauka rakhti hai. Yeh sirf confirmation chahiye taake yeh support ke tor par use kiya ja sake decision making ke liye, kyunke baad mein hum trend ka intezar kar sakte hain ke shayad ab bhi niche jaaye.

Market mein price journey ka prediction hai ke yeh 152.96 area ke aas paas girti rahegi, toh downtrend side ki journey ko continue karne ka chance hai. Market ki conditions ko faida uthate hue, jo clearly decline zone mein hain, agle hafte ke market situation ke liye bhi yeh possible hai ke wohi direction mein rahe. Seller ab bhi market ko dominate karna chahte hain. Bearish movements ke liye, woh lowest area ko chase kar sakte hain. Future trading plan mein UsdJpy market ke liye, main Sell position ko choose karta hoon.