USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ka currency pair moderate decline ka samna kar raha hai. Ek point pe pair significantly drop hua lekin jaldi se current weekly session ke opening levels pe wapas aa gaya. Yeh recovery volatility ko indicate karti hai aur suggest karti hai ke market abhi nayi trend establish karne ke liye tayar nahi hai.
Ek possible wajah yeh hai ke investors US market opening se pehle profits lock kar rahe hain. Profit-taking aam hai un traders ke beech jo European session ke gains secure karna chahte hain, kyunki US markets mein volatility ho sakti hai. USD/JPY pair ka performance mukhtalif factors se influenced hota hai jaise economic data releases, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment. For instance, US economic indicators jaise employment reports, inflation data, aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions ka asar pair pe padta hai. Isi tarah, Japan ki economic conditions aur policy decisions bhi crucial role play karte hain.

Thursday ko, USD/JPY ne record high touch kiya, jo rapid increase ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential opportunity suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Furthermore, moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout bearish pressure ko indicate karta hai.

Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, aur 15-minute chart pe, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price ke upar hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai for USD/JPY pair, potentially higher zone mein move karne ka. Iss week ka trend pattern uptrend aur narrow range ko indicate karta hai. Relatively modest upward rally ke madde nazar, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karenge. Morning candlestick 100-period simple moving average ke upar close hui, jo market trend ke rise ko suggest karti hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone surpass kar sakein...

Is waqt, USD/JPY trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke continue hone ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke movement ke continuation ka potential dega. Pehla target supply zone hoga 160.47 pe, jahan historically sellers ne price down push kiya tha. Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support break karna hoga, jahan se price aksar bounce back hoti hai. Bears ki strength tab confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke neeche consolidate ho jaye, jo price weakness ko indicate karega.

USD/JPY ka downtrend abhi bhi present hai. Price ne 155.48 pe support found kiya, jahan se bounce back hui. Technical analysis show karta hai ke price four-hour ti me frame pe cloud ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, Kijun-sen aur Tenkan-sen signal lines neeche hain, Chikou span line price chart ke neeche hai, aur ek active "dead cross" hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 se neeche hai, aur "trend filter" oscillator red mein hai, jo bearish market sentiment ko signal karta hai. Further declines likely hain. Agar price level 155.48 se neeche

اگست2 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

ین اپنی درمیانی مدت کی ریلی کو انتہائی تکنیکی انداز میں جاری رکھے ہوئے ہے۔ یہاں تک کہ مضبوط تحریکوں کے ساتھ، یہ ہر تکنیکی سطح کو جانچنے کا انتظام کرتا ہے۔ آج صبح تک، قیمت 148.82 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہو رہی ہے۔



مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن اوپر کی طرف مڑ رہی ہے، یہ تجویز کرتی ہے کہ اصلاح کی وجہ ہو سکتی ہے۔ ہدف کی حد 150.83-151.23 اس کی تکمیل کے لیے ایک آسان جگہ ہے۔ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن بھی گھنٹہ وار چارٹ پر موجود ہے۔ اصلاح ختم ہونے کے بعد، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ قیمت 146.50، مارچ کی کم ترین سطح پر چلے گی۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن قیمت کو اوپر کی طرف لے جاتا ہے، اصلاح کو تیزی سے ختم کرنے کی کوشش کرتا ہے۔ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن ، 150.83–151.23 کے ہدف کی حد سے بالکل اوپر، اس حد کو تقویت دیتی ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY pair upward move kar raha hai, lekin abhi kaafi thin hai. Support 151.90 par ek significant zone hai jo potential decline ke liye lower boundary ka kaam karta hai, kyunki is area mein rejection observe hui hai, jo price ko ab tak rise karne de rahi hai. Yeh strong likelihood hai ke price dobara MA 100 level test karne ke liye rise kare, jo 157.19 ke price par hai. Alternatively, longer target around 160.24 ho sakta hai, jo ek fresh supply area mein hai. Current candlestick position 200 period ke Simple Moving Average indicator line ke neeche hai, jo USD/JPY pair mein sellers ka strong influence indicate karta hai, jo price ko consistently downward push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur bearish trend ko maintain kar rahe hain jo kai hafton se chal raha hai.

Doosri taraf, 5-period ke Relative Strength Index indicator ke conditions monitor karne ke baad, jo abhi level 70 ke thoda neeche hai, yeh bhi ek strong signal hai ke price abhi downward move kar rahi hai. Market high volatility experience kar raha hai, jo kai dinon se observe ho rahi hai kyunki USD/JPY market mein zyada sales transactions ho rahi hain. Yeh particularly last Wednesday ko evident tha, jab trading session ke doran price significant downward movement experience kar rahi thi.

Chhote timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi 50 period ke Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai aur thoda upward correction kar rahi hai. Yeh likely hai ke aaj ka price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke aas-paas consolidate karega, kyunki aisi conditions aksar Tuesdays ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko dekhte hue, yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi downward phase mein hai, although range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend somewhat bearish hai, jabki USD/JPY pair ka trend July 2024 ke beginning trading session ke baad upward move kar raha tha. Iska matlab hai ke is haftay ke market conditions monthly trend ke sath consistent hain.

USD/JPY pair is showing a southern correction on the upper half of the chart, at 152.653. Instaforex indicators forum pe pehle segment mein buyers ka thoda advantage dikhate hain, range 53.04%. Dusre hisse mein indicator southward trend dikhata hai. Aaj yeh pair humein kya surprises dega? Japan ki important aur interesting news mein, main highlight karta hoon: Bank of Japan ka decision on interest rates aur consumer confidence index. United States: Non-farm employment changes, crude oil reserves, FOMC statement, Fed interest rate decision aur FOMC press conference. Is liye, hum fundamental aur technical analysis ke saath kaam kar rahe hain. Mukhftasir, aaj iss duo se kya khushi mil sakti hai? Main assume karta hoon ke pair north ko adjust karega 153.10 level tak aur phir south ko 150.40 level tak. Sab ko good lucD-1
Hum channel ke andar support levels tak almost pohanch chuke hain aur ab USD/JPY mein north ki taraf rebound priority hogi. Zyada kehne ko kuch nahi. Unhone achha perform kiya magar meri expectations se kam. Buyers situation ko correct nahi kar sake aur agar bears ka offensive na hota, to hum 153.43 tak gir sakte the. Magar hum abhi tak 152.75 tak bhi nahi pohnche, aur yeh level abhi tak fait accompli nahi hai. Main sochta hoon ke breakout hoga. Buyers ne USD/JPY ka control Southerners ke pressure mein chhod diya hai, magar iska matlab yeh nahi ke unke paas situation ka control hai. Main expect karta hoon ke sell-side ka koi prospect nahi hai, jab ke buy-side trend chart pe bahut acha lag raha hai. Kisi strong news ki absence mein, yeh USD/JPY ke gains ko extend kar sakta hai. Mazedar baat yeh hai ke main kisi bhi situation se chipak gaya hoon aur bull ko winner dekh raha hoon

USD/JPY pair upar ki taraf move kar raha hai, halan ke abhi yeh kaafi thin hai. Support 151.90 ek significant zone hai jo ke potential decline ke liye ek lower boundary ka kaam kar raha hai, kyun ke is area mein rejection observe hui hai jo ke price ko ab tak rise karne de rahi hai. Bohat strong likelihood hai ke price dobara rise karay gi aur MA 100 level jo ke 157.19 ke price pe hai usay test karay gi. Waisay to ek lamba target 160.24 ke around ho sakta hai, jo ke fresh supply area mein hai. Abhi candlestick ka current position Simple Moving Average indicator line ke neeche hai 200 period ke liye, jo yeh indicate kar raha hai ke sellers ka strong influence hai USD/JPY pair mein, jo ke consistently price ko downward push karne ki koshish karte rehte hain aur bearish trend ko maintain kar rahe hain jo ke kay hafton se chal raha hai.

Dusri taraf, 5-period ke Relative Strength Index indicator ke conditions monitor karne ke baad, jo abhi thoda below level 70 hai, yeh bhi ek strong signal hai ke price abhi downward move kar raha hai. Market high volatility experience kar raha hai, jo ke kay dinon se observe hui hai kyun ke zyada sales transactions ho rahi hain sellers se USD/JPY market mein. Yeh khas tor pe pichlay Wednesday ko evident tha, jab price significant downward movement experience hui thi us trading session ke doran.

Chhoti timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai 50 period ke liye aur slight correction upward hui hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke around consolidate kare gi, kyun ke aise conditions aksar Tuesday ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. Market trend conditions H1 timeframe mein dekh kar yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend thoda bearish hai, jab ke USD/JPY pair ka trend upar ki taraf move hua tha July 2024 ke shuruat ke trading session ke baad. Iska matlab yeh hai ke is haftay ke market conditions abhi bhi monthly trend ke sath consistent hain.

UsdJpy market pair daily timeframe par jo trading Thursday ko hui thi, usmein shuru mein sellers ka control tha jo price ko bearish direction mein neeche le gaye the morning session mein. Magar, yeh price 152.18-152.20 ke buyer support area ke neeche nahi jaa saki jo ke buyers ne mazbooti se maintain rakha. Phir buyers ne dobara control le liya aur strong buying pressure laga kar price ko bullish direction mein upar push kar diya. Bollinger bands indicator ko use karte hue daily timeframe par dekha jaye to price seller ke control mein tha jo price ko Lower Bollinger bands area mein le gaye the. Magar, kal ki trading mein buyers ke successful takeover se price dobara upar aayi Lower Bollinger area se strong bullish candle ke saath. Is se yeh lagta hai ke aaj ki trading mein UsdJpy market pair ab bhi buyers ke control mein hai jo ke price ko current Lower Bollinger bands area se door le jaayenge aur next target Middle Bollinger bands area hoga. Friday ko Asian market session mein trading ab bhi buyers dominate kar rahe hain jo apni bullish momentum ko maintain karne ki




koshish kar rahe hain aur price ko upar le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Unka nearest target seller ke resistance area 154.70-154.72 ko test karna hai jo agar successfully penetrate ho gaya to price aur bhi strong aur upar ja sakti hai next target seller ke supply resistance area 155.68-155.70 ki taraf. Nateejay: Sell entry us waqt ki ja sakti hai jab seller successfully nearest buyer support area 153.32-153.30 ko penetrate kar le aur TP target area 152.32-152.30 ho. Buy entry us waqt ki ja sakti hai jab buyer successfully nearest seller resistance area 154.70-154.72 ko penetrate kar le aur TP target area 155.68-155.70 ho.

USD/JPY ne record high reach kiya, indicating a rapid increase, jo ke potential opportunity for profit-taking suggest kar sakta hai. Ab bhi chance hai ke decline ho US session ke lead up mein. Furthermore, ek breakout above the moving averages aur bullish channel indicate karte hain bearish pressure in the analysis
Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, 15-minute chart par described, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price se above hai, suggesting ke bullish trend for USD/JPY pair continue kar sakta hai, potentially higher zone mein move karte hue. Trend pattern for this week uptrend indicate karta hai narrow range ke saath. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, chance hai ke yeh increase next week tak continue kar sakta hai, aur prices expected hain uptrend maintain karne ke. Morning candlestick closed above the 100-period simple moving average, suggesting ke market trend rise ho sakta hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko surpass kar sakte hain
Currently, USD/JPY trend line ke above trade kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ki strength show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support serve karti hai. Bullish rally continue karne ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko resistance at 162.15 break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke movement ke continuation ka potential allow karega. Pehla target hoga supply zone at 160.47, jahan historically sellers ne price ko push down kiya hai. Ek reverse movement towards the short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle support at 160.24 break karna hoga, jahan price ne aksar bounce back kiya hai. Bears ki strength confirm hogi agar price successfully 160.31 ke broken level ke below consolidate kar sake, indicating price weakness
USD/JPY ka downtrend abhi bhi present hai. Price ne support at 155.48 find kiya, jahan se yeh bounce back hua. Technical analysis dikhati hai ke price four-hour time frame par cloud ke below trade kar raha hai, Kijun-sen aur Tenkan-sen signal lines ke saath below, Chikou span line price chart ke below, aur ek active "dead cross." Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke below hai, aur "trend filter" oscillator red mein, signaling bearish market sentiment. Further declines likely hain. Agar price level 155.48 ke below break aur successfully consolidate karta hai, toh prudent hoga new sales consider karna. Iss scenario mein, next potential target support level hoga 154.70.
Aaj market band hai, price temporarily 153.76 area mein ruk gayi hai. Mera khayal hai ke overall market situation yeh suggest karti hai ke price agle kuch dino ke liye bearish trend ko continue karne ka mauka rakhti hai. Yeh sirf confirmation chahiye taake yeh support ke tor par use kiya ja sake decision making ke liye, kyunke baad mein hum trend ka intezar kar sakte hain ke shayad ab bhi niche jaaye.

Market mein price journey ka prediction hai ke yeh 152.96 area ke aas paas girti rahegi, toh downtrend side ki journey ko continue karne ka chance hai. Market ki conditions ko faida uthate hue, jo clearly decline zone mein hain, agle hafte ke market situation ke liye bhi yeh possible hai ke wohi direction mein rahe. Seller ab bhi market ko dominate karna chahte hain. Bearish movements ke liye, woh lowest area ko chase kar sakte hain. Future trading plan mein UsdJpy market ke liye, main Sell position ko choose karta hoon.

USD/JPY pair ka performance mukhtalif factors se influenced hota hai jaise economic data releases, geopolitical events, aur market sentiment. For instance, US economic indicators jaise employment reports, inflation data, aur Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions ka asar pair pe padta hai. Isi tarah, Japan ki economic conditions aur policy decisions bhi crucial role play karte hain.
Thursday ko, USD/JPY ne record high touch kiya, jo rapid increase ko indicate karta hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential opportunity suggest karta hai. US session se pehle decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Furthermore, moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout bearish pressure ko indicate karta hai.
Hourly chart analysis ke mutabiq, aur 15-minute chart pe, decline ka possibility bhi hai kyunki moving average current price ke upar hai, jo bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai for USD/JPY pair, potentially higher zone mein move karne ka. Iss week ka trend pattern uptrend aur narrow range ko indicate karta hai. Relatively modest upward rally ke madde nazar, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices expected hain ke uptrend maintain karenge. Morning candlestick 100-period simple moving average ke upar close hui, jo market trend ke rise ko suggest karti hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone surpass kar sakein...
Is waqt, USD/JPY trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko show karta hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke continue hone ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance break karna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke movement ke continuation ka potential dega. Pehla target supply zone hoga 160.47 pe, jahan historically sellers ne price down push kiya tha. Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support break karna hoga, jahan se price aksar bounce back hoti hai. Bears ki strength tab confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke neeche consolidate ho jaye, jo price weakness ko indicate karega.
USD/JPY market mein. Yeh khas tor pe pichlay Wednesday ko evident tha, jab price significant downward movement experience hui thi us trading session ke doran.
Chhoti timeframe mein, price position monitor hui hai aur abhi Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai 50 period ke liye aur slight correction upward hui hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke around consolidate kare gi, kyun ke aise conditions aksar Tuesday ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. Market trend conditions H1 timeframe mein dekh kar yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend thoda bearish hai, jab ke USD/JPY pair ka trend upar ki taraf move hua tha July 2024 ke shuruat ke trading session ke baad. Iska matlab yeh hai ke is haftay ke market conditions abhi bhi monthly trend ke sath consistent hain

USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements aur analysis ka discussion hamara topic hai. USD/JPY pair abhi 153.97 level ke upar achi position mein hai aur break karne ke liye struggle kar raha hai. Ye foothold 153.97 ke upar ek solid upward trend ko indicate karta hai aur mazid upward movement ki potential ko suggest karta hai. USD/JPY ke probable direction ko dekhte hue, 157.51 level is week ke liye ek viable target ke taur par saamne aata hai jo ke aane wale dinon mein achievable lagta hai. Pichle paanch dinon se, pair ne sideways movement experience ki hai, support zone aur psychological level 153.02 se bounce kar raha hai, jo ke ek solid foundation ke taur par jana jata hai. Psychological levels trading par asar andaz hote hain kyun ke significant trading volume accumulations ki wajah se volatility kam ho jati hai, jaise ke chart dikhata hai. Ye instrument ascending bullish channel ki lower boundary se exit kar gaya hai aur ab descending bearish trend ke continuation ka stage set kar raha hai.


Technical analysis ke hawale se, aaj hum bearish hain, aur pair ke negative crossover signal ko simple moving average se lene par rely kar rahe hain, aur trading stability ko strong resistance 153.70 ke neeche dekh rahe hain. Isliye, decline ka silsila continue hone ki umeed hai aur target 151.25 par hai, jo ke expected official level hai. Pair ke price action ko in levels ke kareeb monitor karna zaroori hai, kyun ke ye short term mein important hai. Dusri taraf, agar pair 153.70 ke upar mazid solid trade karta hai to decline ko complete tor par roka ja sakta hai, aur pair jaldi se recover kar ke 155.00 tak pohonch sakta hai. Neeche chart dekhen:

Conclusion mein, yen ne thodi appreciation ki hai Bank of Japan ke appreciation ki wajah se, magar interest rate differentials abhi bhi US dollar ke liye favorable hain. Aane wala Federal Reserve announcement kuch uncertainty add kar raha hai, jo ke prudent rehne ko zaroori banata hai. Ek strong market rally ka matlab commodities ka end aur favorable dollar conditions ki taraf wapsi ho sakta hai. Ab ke liye, ek watchful mind aur buying opportunities dekhna behtareen approach lagti hai.

Trading ke liye Khabar

Aaj humare paas high-impact news hai. Ye high-impact news mukhtalif currencies se mutaliq hai. Iske ilawa kuch low aur medium-impact news bhi hai. Is ilaqe mein aur iske saath kisi bhi currency pair mein kai zyada volatility dekhne ko milegi. Traders ko ispar tawajju deni chahiye aur trading karte waqt achi money management skills ka istemal karna chahiye. Aik caution ke sath trading karna behad ahm hai. Aaj ke liye faraham ki gai khabron ka jaiza lene ke liye neeche diye gaye tasveer ko dekhein.

USDJPY Ka Tajziya

Kal, USDJPY ka jor wala jor 149.75 ke ilaake mein band hua tha. Aaj, yeh 148.90 ki level ki taraf neeche ja raha hai. Agar hum hourly chart par nazar daalen, to yeh nazar aata hai ke USDJPY moving average line MA (200) H1 ke neeche 153.20 par trade kar raha hai. Hamaray paas 4 ghante ka chart bhi hai jahan USDJPY abhi bhi moving average line MA (200) H4 ke upar trade kar raha hai. In maloomat ko dekhte hue, traders ko behtar sell entry point ki talash karna chahiye jab thoda correction aata hai. Is tajziye ke liye tasveer aur chart neeche diye gaye hain, barah-e-karam dekhiye.

Resistance levels hain: 150.90, 151.25, aur 153.15.

Support levels hain: 148.50, 148.00, aur 147.40.

Kya expect karna chahiye: Hum dekh sakte hain ke USDJPY ki qeemat 148.50 ke agle support level ki taraf mustaqil taur par ghat rahi hai.

Aik aternative yeh hai ke hum moving average line MA (200) H4 ke upar 155.95 ki taraf upar dekhein.

Yahi ab tak ka hai. Aap is tajziye ke baare mein kya sochte hain? Barah-e-karam apne khayalat aur raaye comments section mein chhod dein. Aapka din accha guzray!

JPY currency pair ke real-time price assessment par dhyan dene. Maine ek currency pair chart ka tajziya kiya aur price movements ke buniyad par ek trading opportunity ki pehchaan ki. Yeh tajziya sirf technical nahi hai; ismein tasawwur aur tafreeq ki zarurat hai. Puri jaanch par talash karte huye, maine dekha ke ek directional movement hai jo 156.983 par ek potential sell opportunity ka ishaara de rahi hai. Yeh resistance kaafi mazboot lagta hai, aur agar sab kuch theek raha to yeh pair is point se neeche chale jana chahiye. Mujhe umeed hai ke price is support level tak 148.158 tak gir jayegi, jahan main profit le sakta hoon. Magar, market unpredictable hai, aur agar structure shift hota hai aur koi reversal signal milta hai, to mujhe nuqsan ka samna karna padega. Agar 156.983 ka level mazboot raha, to yeh ek naya support level ban sakta hai, jahan se mujhe buying opportunity mil sakti hai. 154.79 par ek correction ho chuka hai, jo dikhata hai ke girawat shayad jaari rahe. Growth corrections bhi ho sakte hain, magar girawat phir se shuru honi chahiye. Agar koi upward correction hota hai, Japan ki foreign exchange market mein daakhil hone ki fikr (concerns) haal hi mein barh gayi, jo Masato Kanda, ek muhim currency diplomat, ke bayan (remarks) ki wajah se hai, jismein unhone is baat ka izhar kiya ke government zaroorat par daakhlat ke liye 24/7 tayar hai. Is ke ilawa, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke monetary policy ko mazid sakht karnay ki umeed bhi barh gayi hai. Kamzor yen ne inflation ko barha diya hai, ye export ki competitivity mein izafa kar raha hai aur import ke kharche ko barhata hai, jaise ke haal ke BoJ meeting ke minutes mein ek rukun ne is baat ka izhar kiya tha ke foran policy mein tabdeeliyan (adjustments) karni chahiye taake inflation ki levels ko sanbhal (stabilize) kiya ja sake.
Jab market ke shiraakatdar (participants) apni nigahein (await further developments) daakhil hone ki sambhavnayein (potential interventions) aur Bank of Japan ke monetary policy faisally (decisions) par rakhein, USD/JPY ke jore mein jari kaari (continued volatility) ki sambhavnayein hain. Traders ko mashwara (advised) diya jata hai ke wo technical levels ko nazar rakhain, khaaskar 160.00 ka aham rokawat (resistance) aur 153.12 ke aas paas support levels, taake aane wale price movements ka andaza lagaya ja sake.

USD/JPY pair oopar ki taraf ja rahi hai, lekin abhi kafi thin hai. 151.90 par support ek ahm zone hai jo ke potential decline ke liye lower boundary ka kaam karta hai, jahan rejection dekhi gayi hai jis se price ab tak oopar uthi hai. Bohat ziada chances hain ke price dobara uthe aur MA 100 level jo ke 157.19 par hai, ko test kare. Waisay tou lambi target 160.24 ke ird-gird ho sakti hai, jo ke fresh supply area mein hai. Candlestick ki current position 200 period ke Simple Moving Average indicator line ke neeche hai, jo ke strong sellers ke influence ko dikhata hai jo ke USD/JPY pair mein price ko consistently downward push karte hain aur bearish trend ko maintain kar rahe hain jo ke kayi hafton se chal raha hai.
Dusri taraf, 5-period ke Relative Strength Index indicator ke conditions ko monitor karne ke baad, jo ke abhi bhi level 70 se thoda neeche hai, yeh bhi strong signal hai ke price abhi bhi downward move kar rahi hai. Market mein high volatility hai, jo ke kuch dinon se observe ki gayi hai kyunki sellers ki sales transactions zyada hain USD/JPY market mein. Yeh baat khaaskar guzishte Wednesday ko evident thi jab price ne us trading session ke douran significant downward movement dekhi thi.

Smaller timeframe mein, price position ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur yeh currently 50 period ke Simple Moving Average line ke oopar hai aur thoda correction upward kiya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ka price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area mein consolidate kare, kyunki aise conditions aksar Tuesdays ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai. H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko dekhte huwe, yeh kaafi clear hai ke yeh abhi bhi downward phase mein hai, halan ke range bohot wide nahi hai. Iss haftay ka trend kuch bearish hai, jab ke USD/JPY pair ka trend July 2024 ke shuru mein trading session ke baad oopar move kar gaya tha. Iska matlab hai ke iss haftay ki market conditions abhi bhi monthly trend ke consistent hain

USD/JPY ke market ne khwahishat ko haqeeqat samajh liya hai. Haan, FOMC ke sath aane wale bayan aur Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ki press conference mein September mein Fed ki monetary policy ko asaan karne ke bohat se ishare the. Magar, tamaam faislay data par mabni honge. Is peesh manzar mein, 2024 ke akhir tak teen dafa rate cut karne ke derivatives mein yakeen kuch zyada lagta hai. Agar aisa hai, to U.S. dollar ke wapas anay ka acha moka hai. Powell ne ishara dia ke FOMC ne July meeting ke douran rates kam karne ka socha tha, magar ziada tar officials ne behtar samjha ke sab kuch waisa hi rehne dein. U.S. economy inflation aur unemployment ke hawale se achi jagah par hai, aur disinflationary processes aur labor market ke mazeed thande hone se monetary policy ko asaan karne ka rasta khul jayega. Ye masla September mein Fed ke agli meeting mein dubara uthaya ja sakta hai

Yen apni medium-term rally ko bohot technical tor par jaari rakhta hai. Mazboot movements ke bawajood, yeh har technical level ko test karta hai. Aaj subha ke liye, price 148.82 level ke upar consolidate ho rahi hai. Marlin oscillator ka signal line upar ki taraf mur raha hai, jo correction ka ishara de raha hai. Target range 150.83-151.23 iske mukammal hone ka acha maqam hai. Hourly chart par MACD line bhi yahin mojood hai. Jab correction khatam ho jayegi, to hum expect karte hain ke price 146.50 tak ja sakti hai, jo March ka low tha. 4-hour chart par, Marlin price ko upar ki taraf le ja raha hai, jald se jald correction khatam karne ki koshish mein. MACD line, jo target range 150.83-151.23 ke bilkul upar hai, is range ko mazeed reinforce karti hai

USD/JPY asset ki hai. Main ne note kiya hai ke doosra contender ek sideways movement mein hai, yaani range mein hai, jo regulator aur investors dono ko mutmain karne wala hai. Ab bears pehle haftay ke minimum ko hold kar rahe hain aur future mein USD/JPY ki movement ki lower limit ko ziada sahi taur par determine kiya ja sakta hai. Phir se, agar regulator ne is structure ko phir se break nahi kiya hai, jaise pehli dafa kiya tha. Yahan par zyada tar, nazar aata hai ke regulator ko price movement ki expected range se mutmain nahi tha aur saaf nazar aata hai ke pichle haftay ek taqatwar neeche ki taraf impulse aaya tha, aur yahan par investors ne jab price USD/JPY pair ki barhne ki taraf gayi, har dafa peeche dekha jab tak haftay ki session close na ho jaye. Ek chhota sa upward correction ke baad, girawat jari reh sakti hai. Agar aaj humein aage ki taraf upward impulse milta hai, 157.85 range tak, to phir girawat jari rahegi. Agar hum ne 156.30 range se chhota sa upward impulse bhi de diya hai, to girawat jari rahegi. Current range se bhi girawat mumkin hai. Kharidari karne walay price ko upar le ja sakte hain, 157.50 ke upar, jahan par humein resistance hai, lekin is surat mein kharidari behtar hai."
USDJPY currency pair ne significant volatility experience ki, jo aksar US dollar ki notable decline se driven thi. Market sentiment sharply negative ho gaya jab disappointing economic news United States se aayi, jo initial expectations se zyada poor performance dikhati thi. Yeh downturn sirf yen tak mehdood nahi tha; isne broad spectrum of currencies ko affect kiya, magar ek notable exception Canadian dollar tha, jo apna stable exchange rate poore period mein maintain rakha.
USDJPY pair swiftly drop hua aur approximately 400 points neeche chala gaya bearish sentiment ke darmiyan. Is decline ke dauran, price action ko ek ascending trendline se support mila jo market waves ke base ke sath trace ho rahi thi. Repeatedly, price ne is trendline ko test kiya aur bounce off karke further downward movements kiya.
In challenges ke bawajood, overall wave structure ek potential upward trajectory suggest karti thi. Is view ko support karte hue, MACD indicator ne buying opportunity signal kiya jab yeh upper buy zone mein raha, halan ke apni signal line ke thoda neeche tha. Aage dekhte hue, USDJPY pair ke liye do plausible scenarios hain. Ek possibility yeh hai ke upward movement horizontal resistance level ke around 160.30 tak continue kare. Is scenario ko bullish convergence jo CCI indicator par observed hui, support karte hain, jo potential for growth ko indicate karti thi jab yeh lower overheating zone mein thi.
Dusra scenario yeh ho sakta hai ke pair ascending support line ko break kar de, jo potential downtrend ko signal karega. Is scenario ke liye market sentiment ya economic indicators mein kisi bhi shift ko monitor karna zaroori hoga jo US dollar ko Japanese yen ke against further weaken kar sake.

Usd/jpy کے تبادلہ کی شرح نے پچھلے کچھ ہفتوں میں ایک نمایاں الٹ پھیر کا سامنا کیا ہے کیونکہ امریکہ کی فیڈرل ریزرو اور جاپان کے بینک کے درمیان تفریق برقرار ہے۔ یہ چار مسلسل ہفتوں تک گر چکی ہے اور سال کے آغاز سے 161.76 کی بلند سطح سے کم ہو کر 148.54 پر پہنچ گئی ہے۔ مجموعی طور پر، usd/jpy کی ریللی نے ہیج فنڈز اور دیگر قیاس آرائیاں کرنے والے افراد کو نقصان پہنچایا ہے جو جاپانی ین کو بیچنے پر اصرار کر رہے ہیں۔ کموڈٹی فیوچرز ٹریڈنگ کمیشن (cftc) کے اعداد و شمار سے پتہ چلتا ہے کہ قیاس آرائیاں کرنے والے مارچ 2021 سے جاپانی ین پر نیٹ شارٹ پوزیشن رکھے ہوئے ہیں۔ یقیناً، ان سرمایہ کاروں نے جاپانی ین کے 2020 کی بلند سطح سے 47% سے زیادہ گرنے کے بعد ایک بڑی رقم کمائی ہے۔ اب، ان میں سے کچھ سرمایہ کار اپنی پوزیشنیں بند کر رہے ہیں کیونکہ کرنسی کی بحالی ہورہی ہے۔ نیٹ شارٹ پوزیشنز جون میں -184,000 سے کم ہو کر پچھلے ہفتے 107,000 پر آگئی ہیں۔

نرمی والے امریکی فیڈرل ریزرو
usd/jpy جوڑا بنیادی طور پر فیڈرل ریزرو اور جاپان کے بینک کے درمیان جاری تفریق کی وجہ سے گرا۔ بدھ کو اپنے سود کی شرح کے فیصلے میں، بینک نے امریکی سود کی شرح کو 5.25% اور 5.50% کے درمیان برقرار رکھنے کا فیصلہ کیا۔ یہ فیصلہ سرمایہ کاروں کو حیران کن نہیں لگا کیونکہ یہ تجزیہ کاروں کی توقعات کے مطابق تھا۔ اپنے بیان میں، بینک نے اشارہ دیا کہ وہ اب دو پہلوؤں پر توجہ مرکوز کر رہا ہے: لیبر مارکیٹ اور افراط زر۔

حال ہی میں اقتصادی اعداد و شمار نے ظاہر کیا ہے کہ یہ اعداد و شمار مختلف سمتوں میں جا رہے ہیں۔ افراط زر فیڈ کی 2.0% کی ہدف کی طرف بڑھ رہی ہے کیونکہ یہ تین مسلسل مہینوں سے کم ہورہی ہے۔ دوسری طرف، بے روزگاری کی شرح پچھلے چند مہینوں میں کم ہوتی جا رہی ہے۔ بدھ کو adp کے ذریعہ جاری کردہ اعداد و شمار نے دکھایا کہ امریکی نجی شعبے نے جولائی میں صرف 122,000 ملازمتیں فراہم کیں، جو ایک سال سے زیادہ کا سب سے چھوٹا اضافہ ہے۔

بینک آف جاپان کا سود کی شرح میں اضافہ
اسی طرح، فیڈرل ریزرو اور بینک آف جاپان مخالف سمتوں میں جا رہے ہیں۔ بدھ کو اپنے سود کی شرح کے فیصلے میں، بینک نے 17 سالوں میں دوسرا اضافہ کیا۔ اس نے سود کی شرح کو 0.25% بڑھا دیا، چند مہینے بعد 0.10% کا اضافہ کیا۔ سب سے اہم بات یہ ہے کہ بینک نے اشارہ دیا کہ اگر افراط زر مستحکم رہتا ہے تو وہ آنے والے مہینوں میں مزید شرحوں میں اضافہ کر سکتا ہے۔ بینک آف جاپان کے شرح سود میں اضافے سے پہلے، مرکزی بینک نے 22 بلین ڈالر سے زیادہ کے بڑے غیر ملکی زر مبادلہ کی مداخلت کی تھی کیونکہ ین گر رہا تھا۔

تاہم، boj ایک ایسی معیشت میں بڑے سست ہونے کے خطرے کا سامنا کر رہا ہے جو پہلے ہی سست ہونے کے آثار ظاہر کر رہی ہے۔ بینک آف جاپان کے اعداد و شمار سے پتہ چلا ہے کہ ملک کی مینوفیکچرنگ پرچیزنگ مینیجرز انڈیکس (pmi) جولائی میں 50 سے گر کر 49.1 ہو گیا۔ یہ 49.2 کے اوسط تخمینہ سے کم تھا۔ یہ دو دن بعد آیا جب جاپان نے کمزور صنعتی پیداوار کے اعداد و شمار شائع کیے۔